Energy slideshow - Dallas Fed · Henry Hub Natural GasHenry Hub & Marcellus Natural Gas NOTES: Latest prices are averages for the week ending 7/3/20. Dashed line is a forward curve

Updated: August 3, 2020

ENERGY SLIDESHOWFederal Reserve Bank of Dallas

ENERGY PRICES

www.dallasfed.org/research/energyFederal Reserve Bank of Dallas

http://www.dallasfed.org/research/energy

Brent & WTI Crude OilWTI & Brent Crude Oil

NOTES: Latest prices are averages for the week ending 7/31/20.

Dashed lines are forward curves. WTI is West Texas Intermediate.

SOURCES: Bloomberg; Energy Information Administration.Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Brent (Jul 31 = $43.19) WTI (Jul 31 = $40.69)Dollars per barrel

Henry Hub Natural GasHenry Hub & Marcellus Natural Gas

NOTES: Latest prices are averages for the week ending 7/31/20.

Dashed line is a forward curve. Marcellus price is an average of

Dominion South, Transco Leidy Line, and Tennessee Zone 4 prices.

SOURCES: Bloomberg; Wall Street Journal.

Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Henry Hub (Jul 31 = $1.82) Marcellus (Jul 31 = $1.29)Dollars per million

British thermal units

Retail Gasoline & Diesel

NOTES: Prices are for 7/27/20. PADDs are “Petroleum Administration for

Defense Districts.” Prices include all taxes.

SOURCE: Energy Information Administration.

Retail price per gallon

PADD Gasoline Diesel

1 $2.09 $2.52

1A $2.12 $2.63

1B $2.25 $2.70

1C $1.99 $2.38

2 $2.08 $2.30

3 $1.86 $2.18

4 $2.32 $2.34

5 $2.82 $2.95

U.S. $2.18 $2.43

Regular Gasoline & Highway Diesel


GLOBAL PETROLEUM



World Oil Supply & Demand

NOTE: Dashed lines represent forecasts.




80

82

84

86

88

90

92

94

96

98

100

102

104

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Q2

2020

92.3

84.4

Million barrels per day

World

production

World

consumption


NOTE: Shaded bars represent forecasts.


Implied Change in World Oil Stocks


-6.0

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021


OPEC Oil Production & Rig Count

NOTES: OPEC is the Organization of the Petroleum

Exporting Countries. Dashed line represents a forecast.


OPEC Crude Oil Production


22.0

23.0

24.0

25.0

26.0

27.0

28.0

29.0

30.0

31.0

32.0

33.0

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022


July

22.47

OECD Commercial Inventories

NOTES: OECD is the Organization for Economic Cooperation

and Development. Dashed line represents a forecast.


OECD Commercial Oil Inventories


2,500

2,600

2,700

2,800

2,900

3,000

3,100

3,200

3,300

3,400

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Million barrels

2010-2014 average

July

3227

OECD Commercial Inventories

NOTE: OPEC is the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.


World Oil Production Outages


0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020


OPEC

Non-OPEC

June

4.17

0.76

NATIONAL OUTLOOK



U.S. Oil Production & Rig CountU.S. Oil & Gas Production

NOTE: Natural gas series is marketed production.

SOURCE: Energy Information Administration.Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

1921 1929 1937 1945 1953 1961 1969 1977 1985 1993 2001 2009 2017

U.S. crude oil production


U.S. natural gas production

Billion cubic feet per day

U.S. Oil Production & Rig Count

NOTES: Dashed line shows the forecast as of 7/07/20. Rig count

series shows the last weekly count each month.

SOURCES: Baker Hughes; Energy Information Administration.

U.S. Oil Production & Rig Count


100

300

500

700

900

1,100

1,300

1,500

1,700

3

5

7

9

11

13

15

17

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

U.S. crude oil production


U.S. oil rig count

Number of active rigs

May

10.00

July

180

Gasoline Demand

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted.

SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

U.S. Oil & Gas Employment


100

140

180

220

260

300

340

2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021

Number of jobs (thousands)

Support activities

for oil and gas operations

Oil and gas

extraction

May

196.0

June

151.9

Crude Oil & Product Inventories

NOTES: Square marks use latest weekly data as of 7/29/20.


Commercial Crude Oil Inventories


300

350

400

450

500

550

600

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2014-2018 range 2014-2018 average 2020 2019Million barrels

May

521Jul

526

Jun

534

Gasoline Demand

NOTES: Square marks use latest weekly data as of 7/30/20.


Natural Gas Inventories


0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5


2014-2018 range 2014-2018 average 2020 2019Trillion cubic feet

Jun

3.1

May

2.3

Jul

3.2

Gasoline DemandGasoline Inventories

Federal Reserve Bank of DallasNOTES: Square marks use latest weekly data as of 7/29/20.


200

210

220

230

240

250

260

270



Jul

247

May

258Jun

257

Gasoline DemandDistillate Inventories

Federal Reserve Bank of DallasNOTES: Square marks use latest weekly data as of 7/29/20.


100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

190



Jun

174

Jul

178May

176

Gasoline Demand

NOTES: Series is seasonally adjusted. Data are estimates based on hourly

traffic count data at approximately 5,000 locations nationwide.

SOURCE: Federal Highway Administration.

Vehicle Miles Traveled


160

180

200

220

240

260

280

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Billion miles traveled

May

204.5

Gasoline Demand

NOTES: Square marks are based on averages of weekly data.

Gasoline consumption is estimated using product supplied.


Gasoline Consumption


5.0

5.4

5.8

6.2

6.6

7.0

7.4

7.8

8.2

8.6

9.0

9.4

9.8

10.2


2014-2018 range 2014-2018 average 2020 2019Million barrels per day

Jun

8.24

Jul

8.70May

7.19

REGIONAL ACTIVITY



Texas Oil Production & Rig Count

NOTE: Natural gas series is marketed production.


Texas Oil & Gas Production


10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018

Texas crude oil production


Texas natural gas production



NOTE: Rig count series shows the last weekly count each month.

SOURCES: Baker Hughes; Energy Information Administration.



80

180

280

380

480

580

680

780

880

980

1.5

2.5

3.5

4.5

5.5

6.5

7.5

8.5

9.5

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Texas crude oil production


Texas rig count

Number of active rigs

May

4.40

Jul

104

Texas Mining Sector EmploymentTexas Oil & Gas Employment

SOURCES: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

50

70

90

110

130

150

170

190

210

2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022

Number of jobs (thousands)

Support activities

for mining

Oil and gas

extraction

Jun

113.0

67.1

Texas Mining Sector EmploymentDrilled but Uncompleted Wells


0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Number of wells

U.S. basins excluding Permian Basin

Permian Basin

Jun

4171

3488

Texas Mining Sector EmploymentWell Completions by Basin


0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Number of wells

Permian

Basin

Eagle Ford

Niobrara

Anadarko

Appalachia

Bakken

Haynesville

12-Month Total Rig Change by County

*Change in total rigs, from 07/26/2019 to 07/31/2020.

SOURCES: Baker Hughes; Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

3-Month Total Rig Change by County

*Change in total rigs, from 04/24/2020 to 07/31/2020.

SOURCES: Baker Hughes; Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

Crude Oil Production by Region

NOTES: Series depict estimates after April 2020.

“Other areas” include Haynesville and Marcellus.


0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021


Permian

Basin

Bakken

Eagle Ford

Niobrara

Anadarko

Other areas

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021


Appalachia

Permian Basin

Haynesville

Other areas

Anadarko

Eagle Ford

Natural Gas Production by Region

NOTES: Series depict estimates after April 2020.

“Other areas” include Niobrara and Bakken.


Energy Survey Business Activity

NOTES: Index is the percentage of firms reporting an increase in activity

since the prior quarter minus the percentage reporting a decrease.

Positive values reflect expansion in oil and gas activity, negative values

reflect contraction and zero reflects no change since last quarter.

SOURCE: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

In the current quarter vs. the prior quarter: has your firm’s level of business

activity increased, not changed or decreased?


-42.1

13.826.7

40.1 41.8 37.327.3

38.1 40.7 44.5 43.3

2.310.8

-0.6-7.4 -4.2

-50.9 -66.1

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

Q1

2016

Q3

2016

Q1

2017

Q3

2017

Q1

2018

Q3

2018

Q1

2019

Q3

2019

Q1

2020

Diffusion index

Breakeven Prices for New Wells

NOTES: Line shows the mean, and bars show the range of responses.

92 E&P firms answered this question from March 11-19, 2020.


Dallas Fed Energy Survey—In the top two areas in which your firm is active: What

WTI oil price does your firm need to profitably drill a new well?


Permian

(Midland)

Permian

(Delaware)

Eagle Ford

Permian

(Other)

Bakken

Other U.S.

(Shale)

Other U.S.

(Non-shale)

$46 $46$50 $50 $51 $51 $52

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Dollars per barrel

22 7 23 44 5 8 18Number of responses

Shut-in Prices for Existing Wells

Dallas Fed Energy Survey—In the top two areas in which your firm is active: What

WTI oil price does your firm need to cover operating expenses for existing wells?

Federal Reserve Bank of DallasNOTES: Line shows the mean, and bars show the range of responses.

95 E&P firms answered this question from March 11-19, 2020.


Permian

(Midland)Eagle Ford

Permian

(Delaware)

Permian

(Other)

Other U.S.

(Shale)

Other U.S.

(Non-shale)

$23 $26 $26 $28 $30 $32$36

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

8 18 22 5 9 23 44Number of responses

Dollars per barrel

Bakken

Additional Resources

• Energy Indicators

– A monthly web publication of key economic indicators that offers a snapshot of the energy sector

• Dallas Fed Energy Survey

– A quarterly assessment of energy activity of about 200 oil and gas firms located in the Eleventh District

• Energy in the 11th District

– Detailed info on four major regions: the Barnett Shale, Eagle Ford Shale, Haynesville Shale and Permian Basin

• Other energy articles and research

Click here to contact us for general information or other inquiries.Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

https://www.dallasfed.org/research/energy/indicators

https://www.dallasfed.org/research/surveys/des

https://www.dallasfed.org/research/energy11

https://www.dallasfed.org/research/energy/energy

mailto:[email protected]

Documents

Energy slideshow - Dallas Fed · Henry Hub Natural GasHenry Hub & Marcellus Natural Gas NOTES: Latest prices are averages for the week ending 7/3/20. Dashed line is a forward curve