Irelands Energy Forecasts

Matthew Clancy Energy Modelling Group

Overview

The modelling process

Input assumptions and impact of economic uncertainty

Scenarios and energy targets

Key messages

Energy Forecasts

Method, Assumptions and Scenarios

Process

Stakeholder Consultation

Assumptions and

Scenarios

Stakeholder Consultation

Energy Balance

ESRI Modelling

Output

IsUsEnergy

DemandPLEXOS Electricity

SEAI Forecast Numbers

NEEAP Savings

BaselineNEEAP/NREAP

Sensitivities

Fuel price assumptions

/boe 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030Oil Projections (E3M Lab EU Ref

Scenario)85.7 86.2 87.0 88.6 90.8

Coal(DECC

Projections)15.3 16.7 19.4 19.3 19.3

Gas (DECC

Projections)40.7 47.5 47.2 47.2 47.2

/tCO2EU-ETS

Carbon Price(EU Reference

Scenario) 7.2 10 17 27 37

Fuel price assumptions Oil ($/barrel)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

$

/

b

a

r

r

e

l

EU Ref Scenario

Historic Oil Price

Fuel price assumptions Gas ( p/Th)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

G

a

s

P

r

i

c

e

G

B

P

(

p

e

n

c

e

/

T

h

e

r

m

)

DECC Central Scenraio

Historic Gas Price

Macro-economic assumptions

2005-10 2010-15 2015-20 2020-25 2025-30

GDP 0.1 2.0 3.9 2.0 2.0

GNP -0.3 1.2 3.5 2.0 2.3National Resources

(GNDI + Capital Transfers) -1.5 0.4 3.7 2.1 3.1

Investment -12.0 1.2 10.1 1.7 3.9Productivity (GDP per

head) 0.8 2.0 1.6 1.3 0.9Average Non-

Agricultural Earnings 1.5 1.2 3.8 3.9 3.1

Employment, April -0.7 0.1 2.2 0.7 1.0

Labour Force, April 1.6 -0.2 0.7 0.8 0.6

For end Year: 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Net Immigration -27.5 -16.5 0.8 0.7 2.9Unemployment rate,

ILO Basis % 16.4 15.2 8.9 9.3 7.3Balance of Payments,

% of GNP 0.5 5.7 4.3 3.9 4.2

Scenarios Baseline Scenario (with measures)

Measures in place before the end 2012 Recent policy (EE and renewables) measures Benchmark to measure other scenarios against

NEEAP/NREAP Scenario (with additional measures) Establish the level of policy effort required to meet targets

National Energy Efficiency Action Plan (NEEAP) 20% EE saving in 2020 compared to 2001-2005 baseline

National Renewable Energy Action Plan (NREAP) Two Binding Targets from Renewable Energy Directive 16% renewable energy share of total consumption 10% in transport

No new policy post 2020

Impact of economic uncertainty

10,000

10,500

11,000

11,500

12,000

12,500

13,000

13,500

14,000

2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

k

t

o

e

2009 forecast (WP Plus)

2010 forecast(NEEAP/NREAP)

2011 forecast(NEEAP/NREAP)

2012 forecast(NEEAP/NREAP)

2013 forecast(NEEAP/NREAP)

Energy forecasts 2020 targets and where we are now

Headline 2020 targets for Ireland

20% energy savingsby 2020 (31,925 GWh)

Overall 16% RES of national consumption.

Three sub-targetso RES-Electricity 40%o RES-Heat 12%o RES-Transport 10%

EU Effort Sharing Decision (2013 2020)o 20% reduction non-ETS emissions relative to

2005o Annual limits

Energy Efficiency Renewable Energy

Emissions

Target interaction 1 EE & RE

40%

12%

10% Electricity

Heat

Transport

40%

12%

10%Electricity

Transport

Heat

Efficiency gains make renewables targets easier

Target interaction 2 Shift demand

40%

12%

10% Electricity

Heat

Transport

Shift demand into end use sector where ready solutions exist(e.g. electrification of heat and transport)

40%

12%

10%

Transport

Heat

Electricity

Context for Renewable Energy in 2012

RES-E19.6%

RES-H5.2%

RES-T3.8%

RE Directive = 7.1% of GFC

What's required to meet the targets?

575 million

2.5 billion

p/a

Energy Efficiency

100,000 home upgrades p.a.

Business and public sector savings

1 bn investment per year

2011

2020

Success requires

19.6%

40%

Deploy 250 MW per annum, up from 170

Renewable Electricity

Biomass CHP, Waste to Energy,

Co-firing

2012

2020

Success requires

10%

200,000 EVs

3.8%

8-9% biofuels

Rapid growth in electric vehicles

Requires international supply of acceptable biofuels

2012 2020

Renewable TransportSuccess requires

DevelopBiogas

Use of waste material to produce biogas for transport

ServicesHouseholdIndustry

12%

5.2%

Industry offers quick wins

2012 2020

Renewable Heat

Target requires the equivalent of

300,000 homes installing

renewable heat

Current policy will not deliver target

What energy sources are required to meet RES targets?

Bioenergy, 50% Other Renewable Sources, 50%

% contribution to 2020 RES targets

Wind, hydro and ocean in electricity

EVs in transport Heat-pumps for heat

Biofuels in transport AD and solid biomass in

heat and electricity

Key Messages

Energy demand projections have been falling in-line with forecasts of economic growth and policy action

No new polices post 2020 modelled

Level of effort to reach 2020 energy targets

Bioenergy has a large role to paly

Key Messages

Thank you