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Better data, better methodology, better….. By Peter Dal, Danish Energy Agency
Energy Efficiency Indicators Workshop
IEA, Paris, 6-7 June 2012
2
Outline
Economy, gross and final energy consumption
The transformation sector
Manufacturing industry
The tertiary sector
Households
Transport
3
Economy, gross and final energy consumption
• The tertiary sector still more important
• Adjustment necessary for comparisons
• Determination of reference year important
when comparing development
Gross value added i Denmark 1980-2010 In 2010, 75% of total GVA in the tertiary sector
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Total economy Manufacturing industry Tertiary sector
Index 1980=100
4
5
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Observed Normal (20 years moving average) -30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Degree days PJ
Climate adjustment needed
Net exports of electricity adjustment needed
600
700
800
900
1000
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
PJ
Observed consumption Adjusted consumption *)
*) Adjusted for climate variations and fuels for net exports of electricity.
Gross energy consumption observed and adjusted
Look at energy consumption in 1990 (Kyoto reference year)
6
7
The transformation sector
• In CHP, how do we split fuel input into heat
and power?
• Is increasing CHP shares still a good political target?
• Base year when comparing developments
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
District heating Electricity
CHP shares of thermal power and district heating production
More wind power in Denmark will result in more separate heat production
8
Efficiency in gross electricity production First CHP and later wind turbines
Even better with proportional fuel split in CHP
9
0.36
0.38
0.40
0.42
0.44
0.46
0.48
0.50
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
%
10
Manufacturing industry
• Fuel shifts can have an impact on indicators
• Significant structural changes over the last years
• Manufacturing industry by NACE-group should
always be the same in statistics and indicators
• Value added (constant prices) often used as deno-
minator in indicators: Remarkable revisions can be
expected for the last years
11
Characteristics of manufacturing industry in Denmark
• In Denmark, the manufacturing industry is a rather small sector – and declining
• Percentage of total final energy consumption: 18.5% in 1990, 18.5% in 2000 and 15.2% in 2010
• Fuel shifts from oil toward electricity and natural gas have contributed to improved energy efficiency
• After 2000, the energy efficiency has also improved due to significant structural changes toward energy light branches
Energy intensity of manufacturing industry Structural changes more important since 2000
12
0.06
0.08
0.10
0.12
0.14
0.16
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Actual Constant structure
koe/€2000
13
The tertiary sector
• Statistics for sub-sectors needed
• Strong increase in electricity consumption in
private services
• For heat consumption, correct split between households and the tertiary sector?
14
Main reasons for more detailed energy statistics in the tertiary sector
Today, the tertiary sector is the most important economic sector
Better monitor electricity consumption, which for long time has shown a steady and fast increase
Energy politics: Uncovering of potential energy savings and monitoring
Special interest on energy consumption in public services
15
Data and international reporting on energy consumption in the tertiary sector:
DEA-statistics: 4 sub-sectors
IEA-Eurostat: No sub-division of the tertiary sector
Odyssee: 6-8 sub-sectors
Economics: Very – and still more - detailed (Danish)
national accounts statistics
16
15
20
25
30
35
40
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2007
Manufacturing Trade and Services Households
Climate adjusted PJ
Final electricity consumption by sector
17
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2007
PJ
Wholesale Retail trade Private service Public service
Climate adjusted
Electricity consumption in tertiary sector by sub-sector
18
Households
• Good statistics on biomass extremely
important
• Electricity consumption, own production of solar has to be added
• Can a TV set of today be compared with a TV set sold in 1990?
19
Consumption of wood in households Impact on total consumption and efficiency
• The energy statistics will give a false picture of the development of energy consumption - and energy efficiency - if wood pellets and firewood are not treated correctly. This is especially important for households.
• Without surveys on wood pellets and firewood the Danish consumption of biomass in households had been seriously underestimated.
• The energy consumption in households has increased 2000-2008. Instead of reductions in the energy consumption we have seen fuel shifts.
• A shift towards wood has a negative impact on the unit consumption in households.
Energy consumption in households for space heating: Share of renewables
20
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
%
21
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Firewood Oil Natural gas District heating Electricity
Per
Cen
t
Efficiency Local losses
Efficiency of heating devices in households
Shifts from oil to district heating means lower energy consumption
Shifts from natural gas to firewood means higher energy consumption
22
0
200
400
600
800
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
kWh/year
TV Sets Refrigerators Freezers
Dishwashers Washing Machines Dryers
Specific electrical consumption by household appliances
Look at the development over the last years Can a TV set of today be compared with a TV set sold in 1990?
23
Transport
Statistics not easy for small countries • Border trade
• Transport companies looking for the lowest costs (moving out of Denmark)
24
Unit consumption by trucks: Nominator versus denominator
• The nominator: All energy consumption in Denmark by trucks.
• The denominator: Tonkm by Danish trucks.
• The discrepancy has increased over the last years mainly because more and more transport to and from Denmark takes place using foreign trucks.
The EU Directive on road transport: Definitions
Transport of goods by road by Danish vehicles in national traffic
• The purpose of the statistics about transport of goods by road by Danish vehicles (> 6 tonnes) in national traffic is to analyse goods transported, traffic and transport performance of Danish road vehicles in national traffic.
International traffic by Danish lorries and road tractors over 6 tonnes
• The statistics cover international transport by Danish lorries and road tractors over 6 tonnes of permissible weight. Transport by trailers or semi-trailers registered in another country is included if the tractive unit is registered in Denmark.
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Unit consumption by trucks in Denmark GJ per 1000 tonkm
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1990 92 94 96 98 2000 02 04 06 08
Problems in the last years
Road transport by foreign trucks from or to Denmark (mio. tonkm)
27
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Total transport 8 137 9 506 10 763 13 053 12 953 13 651
From DK to registration country 3 371 3 831 4 390 5 574 5 615 6 137
To DK from registration country 4 766 5 675 6 373 7 479 7 338 7 514
- of which cross trade transport .. 2 851 3 480 4 635 4 517 5 243
28
Conclusion
• To include road transport by foreign trucks will certainly improve the value of the unit consumption of trucks as an indicator of efficiency.
• The energy statisticians will continue their work to improve the accuracy of the fuel consumption by trucks (not an easy task).
• Interest by transport statisticians in the use of their statistics for energy efficiency indicators will be very welcome.
• Cooperation between energy and transport statisticians will certainly be fruitfully.
