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www.meetmed.org
Mitigation Enabling Energy Transition in the MEDiterranean region
ENERGY EFFICIENCY FOR
HOUSEHOLDS IN SEMCs Adel Mourtada, Energy & Climate Change Expert, ALMEE
6th MEDENER International Conference on Energy Transition in the Euro – Mediterranean Region
04 October 2018 - Amman, Jordan
. 2
2
1. Building Sector’s Prospective in Mediterranean Region
2. Building Sector’s Prospective in Lebanon
3. Evaluation of the implemented Measures of the Lebanese NEEAP (2011-2015)- Building Sector
4. Supporting measures for implementing EDM scenario in SEMCs
5. Conclusion
Content
. 3
Building Sector’s Prospective in
Mediterranean Region
3
Building Sector’s Prospective
. 4
By 2030, SEMC’s population
will reach 360 millions of
people…
4
Building Sector’s Prospective
Residential sector’s perspectives are highly linked with
demographic trends and urbanization phenomena:
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Milli
ons d
'hab
itant
s
MED
PSEM
PNM
This demographic boom,
associated to rural exodus,
will conduct to a huge need
of housings in city…
Source: UN World Population Prospects : 2008 Revision. 2009''
. 5
5
Building Sector’s Prospective
Sectoral energy demand in the Mediterranean
region and in the SEMCs
Source: Energy IEA-Balances, OECD countries and non-OECD countries, and Plan Bleu for the prospective
. 6
6
Building Sector’s Prospective
Final Energy consumption in the Residential according
to the BaU scenario (Mtoe) in the SEMCs
Source: Energy IEA-Balances, OECD countries and non-OECD countries, and Plan Bleu for the prospective
Energy consumption in the
Residential sector will be
about 130 Mtoe by 2030,
+4% /y in 2007-2030 period
CO2 emissions will reach
about 185 MtCO2 by 2030
in the Residentail sector.
Final Energy consumption in the Residential
according to the BaU scenario (Mtoe)
CO2 emissions in the Residential
according to the BaU scenario (MtCO2)
Source: Energy, Climate change and the Building sector in the Mediterranean: Regional Prospects – Plan Bleu
. 7
• Trend (or BAU) scenario :
Continuation of trends regarding:
o The penetration’s rhythm of energy efficient technologies and renewables in buildings
o The improvement of energy efficiency in new domestic devices
• Alternative scenario – “Energy Demand Management” scenario (EDM) or “Demand Side Management” scenario (DSM):
Generalization of efficient insulation of envelop in new buildings
Gradual elimination of traditional incandescent light bulb
Thermal retrofitting of buildings
Huge dissemination of energy efficient domestic devices
Dissemination of Solar thermal water heater (SWH)
7
Building Sector’s Prospective
Definition of scenarios
. 8
8
Building Sector’s Prospective
Prioritizing EE solutions Several options are available for decreasing energy consumption in buildings.
To identify the most efficient ones, the potential of energy savings as well as the economical
viability should be studied for each geographical zone & associated climate:
Options or Energy efficient
measures
Littoral zone
(e.g: Beirut)
Relief zone
(e.g:
Marrakech)
Desert zone
(e.g: Gafsa)
Continental
zone
(e.g: Ankara)
Roofs’ insulation
Walls’ insulation
Windows’ insulations
Double glazing windows
Natural lighting
Efficient lighting
Solar thermal water heater
Efficient air conditioning
Energy efficient domestic devices
Efficient heating
Lighting thanks to solar PV panels
High efficiency
Intermediate efficiency
Low efficiency or not featured
Source: A.LMEE/Plan Bleu
. 9
9
Building Sector’s Prospective
Reduction of the energy and CO2 emissions in
the Residential in SEMCs (EDM Scenario)
SEMCs : Energy consumption in the Residential according to
the BaU & EDM scenarios (in Mtoe)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1970 2007 2030 Base 2030 EDM
Renewables
Electricity
Gas
Oil
Coal
SEMCs : CO2 Emissions in the Residential sector according to
the BaU & EDM scenarios (in Mt CO2)
0
40
80
120
160
200
1970 2007 2030 Base 2030 EDM
Gas
Oil
Coal
Energy consumption in
the Residential sector
will be reduced by
about
-28% by 2030
CO2 Emissions in the
Residential will be
reduced by about
one third
Source: Energy, Climate change and the Building sector in the Mediterranean: Regional Prospects – Plan Bleu
. 10
10
Building Sector’s Prospective
Evaluation of Costs of EDM measures by 2030
Measures
Need of
investment for a
20 years period.
In Billion €
Cost of the
avoided
tCO2 based on
the average life
of the measure
in €/t CO2
Generalization of efficient insulation of envelop in new
buildings 132 38
Thermal retrofitting of buildings 49 42
Dissemination of efficient lighting 3 9 Huge dissemination of energy efficient domestic
devices as well as efficient heating and air-
conditioning technologies
40 39
Dissemination of Solar thermal water heater 38 120
TOTAL 262 41,5
If the EDM scenario is adopted in SEMCs, and if the penetration of each
measure is in line with experts’ prediction, 262 billions EUR will be necessary
for reaching the previous mentioned energy targets (source: Plan Bleu)
. 11
Building Sector’s Prospective in Lebanon
11
Lebanon: Building Sector’s Prospective
. 12
Final Energy consumption in Lebanon, by use in the
residential sector (Reference and EDM scenarios)
Lebanon: Building Sector’s Prospective
Source: ALMEE/Plan Bleu
Annual savings through alternative scenario estimated at 1.5 Mtoe.
Reference Scenario EDM Scenario
. 13
Energy saving potential by EE measures in Lebanon
(H.2030, in ktoe)
Lebanon: Building Sector’s Prospective
Source: ALMEE/Plan Bleu
Measure 2020 2030
Efficient shell – Heating (in ktoe) 1050 4556
Efficient shell – Cooling (in ktoe) 415 1619
Dissemination of solar water-heaters (in ktoe)
390 1275
Efficient lighting (in ktoe) 627 1542
Efficient refrigerator (in ktoe) 600 2176
Others (in ktoe) 137 475
Total (in ktoe) 3219 11943
. 14
Additional investment in Lebanon, estimates in millions M€
(H.2030)
Lebanon: Building Sector’s Prospective
Source: ALMEE/Plan Bleu
Measure 2020 2030
Efficient shell – Heating (in M€) 229 1577
Efficient shell – Cooling (in M€) 96 416
Dissemination of solar water-heaters (in M€) 83 325
Efficient lighting (in M€) 19 60
Efficient refrigerator (in M€) 42 180
Others (in M€) 40 250
Total (in M€) 509 2808
. 15
Aggregate savings in Lebanon, estimates in M$
(H.2030)
Lebanon: Building Sector’s Prospective
Source: ALMEE/Plan Bleu
Measure 2020 2030
Efficient shell – Heating (in M$) 1344 5700
Efficient shell – Cooling (in M$) 532 1900
Dissemination of solar water-heaters (in M$)
499 1497
Efficient lighting (in M$) 803 1810
Efficient refrigerator (in M$) 768 2554
Others (in M$) 175 557
Total (in M$) 4121 14018
. 16
Evaluation of the implemented Measures of the
Lebanese NEEAP (2011-2015)- Building Sector
16
Evaluation of the NEEAP (2011-2015)
. 17
The Lebanese NEEAP (2011-2015)
Evaluation of the NEEAP (2011-2015)
. 18
Initiative n⁰ Target Achievement in 2016
Initiative 1
Electricity saving160 MW
installed capacity or 239
GWh/year from banning the
import of incandescent lamps
Import of Incandescent Lamps
to Lebanon not banned
Initiative 2
Adoption of the Energy
Conservation Law and
Institutionalization of the
Lebanese Center for Energy
Conservation
Not adopted
Initiative 3
50-100 MW Wind and
Decentralize PV installed
capacity or 131-263 GWh/year
electricity saving
Low implementation of
decentralize PV
Initiative 4
SWH
26.35 GWh/year Electricity
saving
Achieved at 53% according to
LCEC
Initiative 5 18.6 GWh/year over 3
Years from public street lighting Achieved around 2 GWh/year
Evaluation of the NEEAP (2011-2015)
Evaluation of the NEEAP (2011-2015)
. 19
Initiative n⁰ Target Achievement in 2016
Initiative 10 815 GWh/year From Energy
Building Code
Energy Building Code still not
adopted and low implementation
of the Thermal Standard For
Building TSBL2010
Initiative 11 Financing Mechanisms and
Incentives
NEEREA and Kafalat financing
mechanisms. Energy saving from
announcing beneficiary projects 7
GWh/year (end 2015)
Initiative 12 Awareness and Capacity Building Good achievement
Initiative 13 Paving the Way for Energy Audit
and ESCO Business Medium achievement
Initiative 14 38 GWh/year from standards and
labels
5 Minimum Energy Performance
Standards (MEPS) for 5 equipments
were adopted before the NEEAP. No
enforcement or development of
Labels were conducted
Evaluation of the NEEAP (2011-2015)
Evaluation of the NEEAP (2011-2015)
. 20
Main barriers to EE & RE in Lebanon: Electricity subsidies,
High Generation Cost and Technical & non Technical losses
Source: ALMEE/EDL/CAS
27
3.75
05
1015202530
Cost billing
C$
/kW
he
Lebanon : Electricity Generation and Distribution Cost vs. revenues per kWh (in 2011)
Subsidies for Electricity represent 50% of the annual growth of the
public debt.
In 2017 the overall subsidies for Electivity sector represent 38
billions $ (46% of the total debt of Lebanon)
Evaluation of the NEEAP (2011-2015)
. 21
Supporting measures for implementing
Alternative scenario in SEMCs
21
Supporting measures
. 22
A well-featured supporting program is a relevant mix of several measures :
1) Regulation tools
• Implementing energy regulation for domestic devices (Labels, MEPS)
• Generalizing and implementing thermal regulation (Energy Building Code)
2) Incentive tools: improvement of profitability for the final consumer and support for the initial investment cost
• Implementing tax rebates
• Developing well featured loan (flexibility on the required security, attractive interest rate…)
• Looking for Clean Mechanism Development and NAMAs projects
22
Supporting measures
. 23
3) Capacity buildings tools in the field of EE
• Implementing communication and awareness campaigns
• Training professionals from the building sector (workmanship, architects…)
• Generalizing Energy Performance Certificate for Buildings and Green Building Rating System (GRASS, ECOBat…)
• Implementing quality schemes in the building sector:
o regarding the performed work : quality label for company/person
o regarding the implemented EE measures: quality label for the equipment/building
4) Institutional and organizational tools
• Assigning a special coordinating and transversal entity aiming at create synergy between all stakeholders at national and at regional levels (regional animated by MEDENER).
23
Supporting measures
. 24
In 2030, energy trend scenarios in SEMCs are more than alarming…
Integration of EE measures and new efficient technologies and devices in the residential sector is a great opportunity for SEMCs :
- to decrease energy consumption and GHG emissions
- to fight against energy dependency
… and therefore to improve national economies
24
Conclusion
Conclusion
. 25
Concretely, how to initiate an Alternative Scenario?
• Stop public subsidies related to electricity purchase and use the corresponding money for implementing EE measures RE and new efficient technologies (material and devices).
• Many EE measures have already proven their efficiency and profitability: the point is now to disseminate “success stories” and to communicate on their irrefutable economical benefits for a same level of comfort.
25
Conclusion
Conclusion