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DNV GL © 2017 17. november 2017 SAFER, SMARTER, GREENERDNV GL © 2017
17. november 2017
Remi Eriksen
Energitransformasjon mot 2050 - hvor er vi på vei?
1
Bergens næringsråd – Årskonferansen 2017
DNV GL © 2017 17. november 201717. november 2017
ENERGYTRANSITIONOUTLOOK2017A global and regional forecast
of the energy transition to 2050
DNV GL © 2017 17. november 20173
Forecast world primary energy supply
DNV GL © 2017 17. november 20174
Forecast world primary energy supply by source
DNV GL © 2017 17. november 20175
DNV GL © 2017 17. november 2017
World final energy demand by sector
6
DNV GL © 2017 17. november 2017
World final energy demand by sector
7
DNV GL © 2017 17. november 2017
...first time since the middle ages that humanity will start to use less energy
8
”
DNV GL © 2017 17. november 2017
E >GDP9
DNV GL © 2017 17. november 2017
Economic growth vs. energy efficiency growth
10
DNV GL © 2017 17. november 2017
Economic growth vs. energy efficiency growth
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20502015
34¢14¢
US Dollar generated per megajoule
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DNV GL © 2017 17. november 2017
Global electricity production in 2050
13
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DNV GL © 2017 17. november 201715
In progress
2015135 GJ/year
205076 GJ/year
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DNV GL © 2017 17. november 201717
non fossil
fossil
North East Eurasia
China
Indian Subcontinent
South East Asia
OECD Pacific
Europe
Latin America
North America
Sub-Saharan Africa
Middle East and North Africa
2017 2050 2017 2050
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DNV GL © 2017 17. november 2017
Forecasted fossil energy use
19
Coal
Oil
Gas
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
EJ/yr
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DNV GL © 2017 17. november 2017
Market share of electric vehicles in new light vehicle sales
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Global energy expenditure as a fraction of Global GDP
DNV GL © 2017 17. november 2017
Global warming and carbon budget
24
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DNV GL © 2017 17. november 201726
A global and regional forecast
of the energy transition to 2050
