he hiring pace is likely to slow noticeably in the coming quarter, particularly in the public administration/education and the transportation & utilities sectors, according to the Manpower Employment Outlook Survey released today by the ManpowerGroup . The seasonally adjusted net employment outlook (NEO) of 27% indicates Indian employers are downshifting from the vigorous hiring pace seen over the past two years.
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1. Q4 2012ManpowerEmploymentOutlook SurveyIndia
2. Manpower Employment Outlook Survey India Q4/12Manpower
Employment Outlook Survey IndiaContentsIndia Employment Outlook 1
Regional Comparisons Sector ComparisonsGlobal Employment Outlook 8
International Comparisons Asia Pacific International Comparisons
Americas International Comparisons EMEAAbout the Survey 19About
ManpowerGroup TM2
3. India Employment OutlookThe Manpower Indian employers report
hopeful hiring intentions for Quarter 4 2012. With 19% of employers
expecting toEmployment Outlook increase staffing levels, 1%
anticipating a decrease and 55% forecasting no change, the
resulting NetSurvey for the fourth Employment Outlook stands at
+18%.quarter 2012 was Throughout this report, we use the term
Netconducted by interviewing Employment Outlook. This figure is
derived by taking the percentage of employers anticipating totala
representative sample of employment to increase and subtracting
from this the4,932 employers in India. percentage expecting to see
a decrease in employment at their location in the next quarter. The
result of thisAll survey participants calculation is the Net
Employment Outlook.were asked, How do you Quarter-over-quarter,
hiring prospects are considerably weaker, with the Outlook
declining by 35 percentageanticipate total employment points.
Year-over-year, employers report a 16 percentageat your location to
change point decrease. Once the data is adjusted to account for
seasonalin the three months to the variation, the Outlook stands at
+27%. Employersend of December 2012 as report a considerable
quarter-over-quarter decline of 18 percentage points and a 13
percentage point decreasecompared to the current
year-over-year.quarter? From this point forward, all data discussed
in the commentary is seasonally adjusted, unless stated otherwise.
Increase Decrease No Change Dont Know Net Employment Seasonally
Outlook Adjusted % % % % % % 4th Quarter 2012 19 1 55 25 +18 +27
3rd Quarter 2012 55 2 32 11 +53 +45 2nd Quarter 2012 49 1 33 17 +48
+46 1st Quarter 2012 43 2 35 20 +41 +43 4th Quarter 2011 35 1 39 25
+34 +40 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 Seasonally Adjusted Outlook
Net Employment Outlook -20 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
2011 2012 India joined the survey in Q3 2005. 1
4. Manpower Employment Outlook Survey IndiaRegional
ComparisonEmployers in all four regions anticipate an increase in
Year-over-year, hiring prospects decline in all fourpayrolls during
Quarter 4 2012. The most optimistic regions. The most notable
declines of 32 and 21hiring plans are reported in the North, where
the Net percentage points are reported in the East and
theEmployment Outlook stands at +28%. Elsewhere, South,
respectively. Hiring intentions decrease by 11hopeful hiring
prospects are evident in the South percentage points in the West
and by 8 percentageand the West, with Outlooks of +20% and +18%,
points in the North.respectively, while employers in the East
report a Based on unadjusted survey data, employers in all
fourcautiously optimistic Outlook of +9%. regions expect an
increase in staffing levels during theWhen compared with the
previous quarter, employers next three months. The most optimistic
hiring plans arein all four regions report weaker hiring
intentions. A reported in the North. However, hiring prospects
declinesteep decline of 74 percentage points is reported in
considerably in all four regions both quarter-over-the Outlook for
the East. Employers in both the West quarter and year-over-year.and
the South report sharp declines of 39 and 23percentage points,
respectively. The Outlook for theNorth weakens by 13 percentage
points. 25 North Region 28 7 East Region 9 16 South Region 20 West
Region 18 18 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 Net
Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted Outlook2
5. North EastWith a Net Employment Outlook of +28%, employers
Some payroll gains are expected in the East duringanticipate an
active hiring pace in Quarter 4 2012. Quarter 4 2012, with
employers reporting a NetHowever, the Outlook is the weakest since
Quarter Employment Outlook of +9%. However, this is the3 2009, and
declines by 13 percentage points when weakest forecast since the
survey began in Quarter 3compared with the previous quarter.
Year-over-year, 2005. When compared with the previous quarter,
thehiring prospects weaken by 8 percentage points. Outlook declines
by a steep margin of 74 percentage points and the Outlook weakens
by 32 percentageBased on unadjusted survey data, employers report
points year-over-year.healthy hiring plans for the coming quarter.
However,the Outlook declines considerably both quarter-over- Based
on unadjusted survey data, employers reportquarter and
year-over-year. modest hiring plans for the coming quarter. The
Outlook declines sharply both quarter-over-quarter and year-
over-year. 80 80 70 70 60 60 50 50 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 0 -10
-10 Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook Seasonally
Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook -20 -20 2003 2004 2005 2006
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
2010 2011 2012India joined the survey in Q3 2005. India joined the
survey in Q3 2005.South WestJob seekers can expect to benefit from
a steady hiring Employers report hopeful hiring intentions for
Quarterpace in Quarter 4 2012, according to employers who 4 2012
with a Net Employment Outlook of +18%.report a Net Employment
Outlook of +20%. However, However, this is the weakest Outlook
since Quarter 3hiring prospects weaken sharply both quarter-over-
2009, reflecting a steep decline of 39 percentage pointsquarter and
year-over-year, declining by 23 and 21 when compared with the
previous quarter. Year-over-percentage points, respectively. The
Outlook for the year, hiring prospects decline by 11 percentage
points.coming quarter is the weakest since the survey began Based
on unadjusted survey data, employers reportin Quarter 3 2005.
positive hiring intentions for the coming quarter, despiteBased on
unadjusted survey data, employers forecast a sharp
quarter-over-quarter decline in hiring prospects.respectable
payroll gains in the next three months, Year-over-year, the Outlook
is considerably weaker.but hiring prospects decline sharply both
quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year. 80 80 70 70 60 60 50 50 40
40 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 0 -10 -10 Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net
Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment
Outlook -20 -20 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012India joined the
survey in Q3 2005. India joined the survey in Q3 2005. 3
6. Manpower Employment Outlook Survey IndiaSector
ComparisonsEmployers anticipate headcount gains in all seven
percentage point decrease is reported in the Wholesaleindustry
sectors during Quarter 4 2012. The most & Retail Trade
sector.optimistic hiring prospects are reported in the Mining
Year-over-year, employers report Outlook declines in all&
Construction sector and the Finance, Insurance & seven industry
sectors. The most notable decreasesReal Estate sector, with Net
Employment Outlooks of of 18 percentage points are evident in the
Services+38% and +32%, respectively. The Wholesale & Retail
sector and the Transportation & Utilities sector.Trade sector
Outlook stands at +27% and healthy hiring The Manufacturing sector
Outlook declines by 17plans are evident in both the Manufacturing
sector and percentage points and Outlooks weaken by 14 andthe
Services sector, with Outlooks of +22% and +21%, 10 percentage
points in the Wholesale & Retail Traderespectively. sector and
the Public Administration & EducationQuarter-over-quarter,
employers report weaker hiring sector, respectively.prospects in
all seven industry sectors. Sharp declines Based on unadjusted
survey data, employersof 39 and 38 percentage points are reported
in the anticipate job gains in all seven industry
sectors,Transportation & Utilities sector and the Services with
the strongest labor markets forecast for thesector, respectively,
while the Outlook for the Public Finance, Insurance & Real
Estate sector, the Mining &Administration & Education
sector decreases by 31 Construction sector and the Services sector.
However,percentage points. Elsewhere, the Manufacturing sector
hiring prospects are considerably weaker in all sevenOutlook
declines by 28 percentage points and a 21 sectors both
quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year. 21Finance, Insurance &
Real Estate 32 17Manufacturing 22 21Mining & Construction 38
13Public Administration & Education 13 21Services 21
14Transportation & Utilities 14 15Wholesale & Retail Trade
27 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 Net Employment
Outlook Seasonally Adjusted Outlook4
7. Finance, Insurance & Real Estate ManufacturingEmployers
expect a brisk hiring pace in Quarter 4 With a Net Employment
Outlook of +22%, employers2012, reporting a Net Employment Outlook
of +32%. anticipate a healthy hiring pace in the October-However,
the Outlook is the weakest since Quarter 1 December time frame.
However, this is the weakest2010. Hiring prospects decline by 13
and 9 percentage Outlook since Quarter 3 2009. Hiring prospects
weakenpoints, quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year, by 28
percentage points quarter-over-quarter and 17respectively.
percentage points year-over-year.Based on unadjusted survey data,
employers report Based on unadjusted survey data, employers
forecastsolid hiring prospects for the next three months.
respectable headcount gains in the coming quarter.However, the
Outlook declines sharply when compared However, the Outlook
declines sharply quarter-over-with the previous quarter and is also
considerably quarter and is also considerably weaker
year-over-year.weaker year-over-year. 80 80 70 70 60 60 50 50 40 40
30 30 20 20 10 10 0 0 -10 -10 Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net
Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment
Outlook -20 -20 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012India joined the
survey in Q3 2005. India joined the survey in Q3 2005.Mining &
Construction Public Administration & EducationJob seekers can
expect to benefit from a prosperous Employers expect steady hiring
activity in Quarter 4labor market in the next three months,
according to 2012 with a Net Employment Outlook of +13%,
butemployers who report a Net Employment Outlook of this is the
weakest forecast since the survey began+38%. When compared with the
previous quarter, the in Quarter 3 2005. The Outlook declines by a
steepOutlook declines by 4 percentage points, and hiring margin of
31 percentage points quarter-over-quarterplans are 5 percentage
points weaker year-over-year. and weakens by 10 percentage points
year-over-year.Based on unadjusted survey data, employers Based on
unadjusted survey data, employers reportforecast solid payroll
gains in Quarter 4 2012 with a respectable hiring intentions for
the upcoming quarter.Net Employment Outlook of +21%. However,
hiring When compared with the previous quarter, however,intentions
decline sharply quarter-over-quarter and are the Outlook declines
sharply. Year-over-year, hiringconsiderably weaker year-over-year.
prospects are considerably weaker. 80 80 70 70 60 60 50 50 40 40 30
30 20 20 10 10 0 0 -10 -10 Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net
Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment
Outlook -20 -20 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012India joined the
survey in Q3 2005. India joined the survey in Q3 2005. 5
8. Manpower Employment Outlook Survey IndiaServices
Transportation & UtilitiesSolid payroll gains are expected in
Quarter 4 2012, Job seekers can expect a steady hiring pace inwith
employers reporting a Net Employment Outlook Quarter 4 2012,
according to employers who reportof +21%. However, this is the
weakest Outlook since a Net Employment Outlook of +14%.
Quarter-over-Quarter 2 2009. The Outlook declines by 38 percentage
quarter, the Outlook weakens by a steep margin of 39points
quarter-over-quarter and by 18 percentage percentage points, while
employers report a decreasepoints year-over-year. of 18 percentage
points year-over-year. As a result, the Outlook is the weakest
since Quarter 1 2009.Based on unadjusted survey data, employers
reportoptimistic hiring plans for the next three months, Based on
unadjusted survey data, employers reportdespite a sharp
quarter-over-quarter Outlook decline. respectable hiring intentions
for the next three months,Year-over-year, hiring prospects are
considerably although hiring plans weaken sharply when
comparedweaker. with the previous quarter. Year-over-year, the
Outlook declines considerably. 80 80 70 70 60 60 50 50 40 40 30 30
20 20 10 10 0 0 -10 -10 Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment
Outlook Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook -20 -20
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2003 2004 2005
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012India joined the survey in Q3
2005. India joined the survey in Q3 2005.6
9. Wholesale & Retail TradeWith a Net Employment Outlook of
+27%, employersforecast an active labor market in Quarter 4
2012.However, this is the weakest Outlook since Quarter 32009.
Hiring prospects decline by 21 percentage
pointsquarter-over-quarter and by 14 percentage points
year-over-year.Based on unadjusted survey data, employers expect
asteady hiring pace in the upcoming quarter. However,the Outlook
declines sharply quarter-over-quarter. Year-over-year, hiring
prospects are considerably weaker. 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 -10
Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook -20 2003 2004
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012India joined the survey in
Q3 2005. 7
10. Manpower Employment Outlook Survey IndiaGlobal Employment
Outlook Net Employment Outlook Qtr on Qtr Change Yr on Yr Change
Quarter 4 2011 Quarter 3 2012 Quarter 4 2012 Q3 2012 to Q4 2012 Q4
2011 to Q4 2012 % % % Americas Argentina 17 (18)1 7 (8)1 3 (4)1 -4
(-4)1 -14 (-14)1 Brazil 38 31 24 -7 -14 Canada 12 (13)1 18 (12)1 9
(10)1 -9 (-2)1 -3 (-3)1 Colombia 22 (21)1 20 (18)1 19 (18)1 -1 (0)1
-3 (-3)1 Costa Rica 19 (17)1 10 (14)1 18 (16)1 8 (2)1 -1 (-1)1
Guatemala 13 (13)1 11 (12)1 14 (14)1 3 (2)1 1 (1)1 Mexico 13 (13)1
16 (15)1 17 (17)1 1 (2)1 4 (4)1 Panama 26 22 26 4 0 Peru 18 (16)1
21 (23)1 23 (21)1 2 (-2)1 5 (5)1 United States 5 (8)1 15 (11)1 8
(11)1 -7 (0)1 3 (3)1 Asia Pacific Australia 16 (15)1 9 (10)1 9 (9)1
0 (-1)1 -7 (-6)1 China 25 (21)1 17 (19)1 16 (14)1 -1 (-5)1 -9 (-7)1
Hong Kong 21 (21)1 15 (14)1 12 (11)1 -3 (-3)1 -9 (-10)1 India 34
(40)1 53 (45)1 18 (27)1 -35 (-18)1 -16 (-13)1 Japan 8 (11)1 8 (11)1
7 (10)1 -1 (-1)1 -1 (-1)1 New Zealand 23 (22)1 16 (18)1 19 (18)1 3
(0)1 -4 (-4)1 Singapore 31 (29)1 23 (23)1 19 (17)1 -4 (-6)1 -12
(-12)1 Taiwan 37 (36)1 40 (34)1 34 (32)1 -6 (-2)1 -3 (-4)1 EMEA*
Austria 6 (6)1 9 (7)1 4 (4)1 -5 (-3)1 -2 (-2)1 1 1 1 1 Belgium 4
(4) 2 (2) 1 (2) -1 (0) -3 (-2)1 Bulgaria 13 13 5 -8 -8 Czech
Republic 1 (0)1 1 (-2)1 0 (-1)1 -1 (1)1 -1 (-1)1 Finland -7 France
4 (4)1 4 (2)1 2 (2)1 -2 (0)1 -2 (-2)1 Germany 12 (11)1 3 (4)1 6
(5)1 3 (1)1 -6 (-6)1 1 1 1 Greece -13 (-12) 1 -9 (-14) -16 (-15) -7
(-1) -3 (-3)1 Hungary 1 -2 0 2 -1 Ireland 0 (0)1 -3 (-6)1 -7 (-7)1
-4 (-1)1 -7 (-7)1 Israel 16 17 10 -7 -6 Italy -11 (-9)1 -1 (-3)1
-11 (-9)1 -10 (-6)1 0 (0)1 Netherlands 2 (1)1 -1 (-2)1 -1 (-2)1 0
(0)1 -3 (-3)1 Norway 14 (13)1 8 (5)1 8 (7)1 0 (2)1 -6 (-6)1 Poland
7 (8)1 10 (5)1 -2 (-1)1 -12 (-6)1 -9 (-9)1 1 Romania 11 (11) 17
(11)1 13 (14)1 -4 (3)1 2 (3)1 Slovakia 2 5 -2 -7 -4 Slovenia -2 9 3
-6 5 South Africa 2 (3)1 4 (7)1 -1 (0)1 -5 (-7)1 -3 (-3)1 Spain -2
(-1)1 -4 (-6)1 -8 (-7)1 -4 (-1)1 -6 (-6)1 Sweden 11 (11)1 8 (6)1 3
(3)1 -5 (-3)1 -8 (-8)1 1 Switzerland 2 (2) -3 (0)1 5 (5)1 8 (5)1 3
(3)1 Turkey 20 27 21 -6 1 UK 2 (1)1 3 (2)1 4 (3)1 1 (1)1 2
(2)1*EMEA Europe, Middle East and Africa.1. Number in parentheses
is the Net Employment Outlook when adjusted to remove the impact of
seasonal variations in hiring activity. Please note that this
datais not available for all countries as a minimum of 17 quarters
worth of data is required.8
11. Quarter-on-Quarter Year-on-Year Movement Movement STRONGER
STRONGER Switzerland 5 pts. Peru 5 pts. Panama 4 pts.* Slovenia 5
pts.* Romania 3 pts. Mexico 4 pts. Costa Rica 2 pts. Romania 3 pts.
Guatemala 2 pts. Switzerland 3 pts. Hungary 2 pts.* United States 3
pts. Mexico 2 pts. United Kingdom 2 pts. Norway 2 pts. Guatemala 1
pt. Czech Republic 1 pt. Turkey 1 pt.* Germany 1 pt. Italy 0 pts.
United Kingdom 1 pt. Panama 0 pts.* Belgium 0 pts. Costa Rica -1
pt. Colombia 0 pts. Czech Republic -1 pt. France 0 pts. Hungary -1
pt.* Netherlands 0 pts. Japan -1 pt. New Zealand 0 pts. Austria -2
pts. United States 0 pts. Belgium -2 pts. Australia -1 pt. France
-2 pts. Greece -1 pt. Canada -3 pts. Ireland -1 pt. Colombia -3
pts. Japan -1 pt. Greece -3 pts. Spain -1 pt. Netherlands -3 pts.
Canada -2 pts. South Africa -3 pts. Peru -2 pts. New Zealand -4
pts. Taiwan -2 pts. Slovakia -4 pts.* Austria -3 pts. Taiwan -4
pts. Hong Kong -3 pts. Australia -6 pts. Sweden -3 pts. Germany -6
pts. Argentina -4 pts. Israel -6 pts.* China -5 pts. Norway -6 pts.
Italy -6 pts. Spain -6 pts. Poland -6 pts. China -7 pts. Singapore
-6 pts. Ireland -7 pts. Slovenia -6 pts.* Bulgaria -8 pts.* Turkey
-6 pts.* Sweden -8 pts. Brazil -7 pts.* Poland -9 pts. Israel -7
pts.* Hong Kong -10 pts. Slovakia -7 pts.* Singapore -12 pts. South
Africa -7 pts. India -13 pts. Bulgaria -8 pts.* Agentina -14 pts.
India -18 pts. Brazil -14 pts.* WEAKER WEAKER 41 Countries and
Territories 41 Countries and Territories *Indicates unadjusted
data. 9
12. Manpower Employment Outlook Survey IndiaManpowerGroup
interviewed nearly 66,000 hiring is resulting in hiring optimism
among employers in themanagers across 42 countries and territories
to Commerce and the Transportation & Communicationsmeasure
employer hiring expectations between October industry sectors. On
the other hand, opportunities forand December 2012. Employers in
Finland participate in job seekers are expected to be weakest in
Greece, Italy,the research for the first time this quarter.
Finland, Ireland, Spain, Slovakia, Netherlands, CzechThe Manpower
Employment Outlook Survey is Republic and Poland where employers
report the leastManpowerGroups quarterly index of employer hiring
optimisticand only negativeglobal hiring plans.confidence. All
participants were asked, How do you In the Americas, employers from
all 10 countriesanticipate total employment at your location to
change surveyed report positive fourth-quarter hiring intentions.in
the three months to the end of December 2012 as Job prospects are
strongest in Panama and Brazilcompared to the current quarter? and
weakest in Argentina. Employers in Mexico reportThe fourth-quarter
research reveals that uncertainty in their strongest hiring plans
in over four years, driven bythe global marketplaceparticularly in
Europeas well optimism among employers in Mexico City where theas
signals of slowdowns in India, mainland China and Outlook is the
most optimistic since the survey beganBrazil, is contributing to a
generally weaker forecast. The there in 2002.overall hiring pace is
expected to lose momentum on Globally, the strongest hiring plans
are reported byboth a quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year
basis, employers in Taiwan; the hiring pace is expected tobut
hiring intentions still remain positive in nearly three- remain
robust, but job prospects are trending weaker asquarters of the
countries and territories included in the employers scale back
their hiring plans in response tosurvey. However, there is little
evidence of overwhelming a softer export market. Like their
counterparts in India,enthusiasm on the part of employers to add to
their employers in mainland China are reporting generallypayrolls
as Outlooks improve or remain relatively stable weaker hiring
intentions despite an overall Outlook thatin only 15 countries and
territories when compared to remains positive in all industry
sectors and regions.Quarter 4 2011. Elsewhere, the Australian
Outlook edges downwardThe fourth quarter results are also notable
for the decline for the sixth consecutive quarter and now stands at
itsin optimism among employers in India where the hiring weakest
level since Quarter 4 2009.pace is expected to remain active
despite a considerably The European debt crisis remains a
persistent drag onweaker Outlook in both quarter-over-quarter and
year- the confidence of employers throughout much of theover-year
comparisons. Meanwhile, despite pockets of Europe, Middle East
& Africa (EMEA) region. However,resilience, hiring plans among
most European employers job seekers may find some pockets of
opportunity;have shifted down a gear as many remain concerned
viewed from a year-over-year perspective, job prospectsthat the
sovereign debt crisis threatens to drag the are marginally stronger
in Switzerland, Romania andentire eurozone toward another
recession. In the U.S., Slovenia. Hiring intentions also grow
slightly in the Unitedemployers expect the hiring pace to remain at
similarly Kingdom despite threats that the countrys
double-dipsteady levels seen throughout the past year, with
positive recession will intensify. Elsewhere, the story is
lessforecasts reported by employers in all sectors and promising.
The nine negative Outlooks reported thisregions surveyed. quarter
are all from the EMEA region, with employers inWorldwide, hiring
expectations are strongest in Taiwan, Poland and Slovakia reporting
negative hiring plans forIndia and Panama where preparations for
the launch of the first time since starting the survey.the new
canal expansion project, as well as the October * Commentary is
based on seasonally adjusted dataratification of the Free Trade
Agreement with the U.S., where available.Survey Respondents by
RegionResearch for the Quarter 4 2012 Manpower Asia Pacific
24%Employment Outlook Survey involved surveying nearly66,000 human
resources directors and senior hiring Americasmanagers from public
and private organizations 45%worldwide. 45% of respondents come
from 10 EMEAcountries in the Americas; 24% from eight countries
31%and territories across Asia Pacific; and 31% from 24countries in
EMEA.10
13. International Comparisons Asia PacificNearly 16,000
employers across Australia, China, Hong of a general hiring
slowdown, with many IT and ITesKong, India, Japan, New Zealand,
Singapore and employers indicating they will actually freeze hiring
in theTaiwan were interviewed to measure expected fourth- quarter
ahead. Although 40 percent fewer employersquarter hiring activity.
Positive Outlooks are reported say they will hire compared to three
months ago, morethroughout the region with employers in Taiwan,
India than half expect to keep their current workforces intactand
New Zealand reporting the most confident hiring through the fourth
quarter and only 1 percent intend toplans, and those in Australia
reporting the weakest reduce payrolls.hiring intentions. In
mainland China, the Net Employment Outlook sinksPositive Net
Employment Outlooks are reported in each to its weakest level in
nearly three years; positive hiringof the eight countries and
territories. However, employer plans are reported in all sectors
and regions despitehiring plans are generally weaker and
opportunities for declines in most in quarter-over-quarter
comparisonsjob seekers in all countries and territories are
expected and in all when compared year-over-year. The hiringto
decline or remain relatively stable both quarter-over- pace is
expected to remain strong in the Services andquarter and
year-over-year. Transportation & Utilities industry sectors.
Regionally, hiring plans are strongest in Beijing and weakest
inTaiwans robust Outlook is fueled by expectations of Chengdu
despite the ongoing transfer of businessa vigorous labor market in
the Services sector where, operations to the countrys inland and
western regionsin response to continuing demand in the Tourism in
response to growing operational costs in the coastalsubsector,
nearly half of all employers intend to add to areas and sluggish
overseas demand.their workforces in the last three months of the
year. Japans Net Employment Outlook remains cautiouslyElsewhere,
Indias Net Employment Outlook weakens optimistic despite moderate
declines both quarter-over-noticeably in the fourth quarterhiring
plans decline quarter and year-over-year in the countrys
importantin all seven industry sectors and in all regions in both
Manufacturing sector. And in Australia,
employerquarter-over-quarter and year-over year comparisons, hiring
plans soften for the sixth consecutive quarter,and the Net
Employment Outlook is the weakest since depressing job prospects to
the weakest level since thethe third quarter of 2009. However, the
forecast does fourth quarter of 2009.not indicate widespread
layoffs. Instead, there are signsAustralia China 50 50 40 40 30 30
20 20 10 10 0 0 -10 -10 Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment
Outlook Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook -20 -20
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2003 2004 2005
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012No bar indicates Net Employment
Outlook of zero. China joined the survey in Q2 2005. 11
14. Manpower Employment Outlook Survey IndiaHong Kong India 50
50 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 0 -10 -10 Seasonally Adjusted Outlook
Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment
Outlook -20 -20 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012No bar indicates
Net Employment Outlook of zero. India joined the survey in Q3
2005.Japan New Zealand 50 50 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 0 -10 -10
Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook Seasonally
Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook -20 -20 2003 2004 2005 2006
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
2010 2011 2012 New Zealand joined the survey in Q2 2004. No bar
indicates Net Employment Outlook of zero.Singapore Taiwan 70 50 60
50 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 0 10 -10 -20 0 -30 -40 -10 -50 Seasonally
Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted Outlook
Net Employment Outlook -60 -20 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
2010 2011 2012 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012No
bar indicates Net Employment Outlook of zero. Taiwan joined the
survey in Q2 2005.12
15. International Comparisons AmericasManpowerGroup interviewed
nearly 30,000 employers data reveals that for the second
consecutive quarterfrom 10 countries in North, Central and South
America employers in all 50 states expect jobs to increase in theto
measure expected hiring activity in Quarter 4 2012. next three
months. Meanwhile, job seekers in MexicoPositive hiring
expectations for the October-December City can expect to benefit
from the most buoyant hiringtime frame are reported in each
country. Opportunities plans since the Mexican survey started in
2002. Strongfor job seekers are expected to improve or remain
demand is also reported by employers in the Transportstable in six
countries both quarter-over-quarter and & Communications and
Mining & Extraction industryyear-over-year. Job prospects are
strongest in Panama, sectors.Brazil and Peru, and weakest in
Argentina. For the fourth consecutive quarter, confidence amongLed
by expectations of a robust hiring pace in the employers in Perus
Finance, Insurance & Real EstateCommerce and Transportation
& Communications sector is adding fuel to the countrys solid
hiring pace.sectors, prospects for Panamas job seekers are bright
Meanwhile, Brazilian hiring plans decline for the secondand are
expected to get a boost from the countrys consecutive quarter and
are now at the weakest levelimproving position as a trade partner
with the U.S., in three years. In an effort to reverse declining
growthTaiwan and several European countries. The forecast numbers,
the government is proposing a secondmatches the strongest Outlook
reported in the country round of stimulus measures focused on the
countryssince the survey started. transportation infrastructure. In
Argentina, employer confidence falls for the sixth consecutive
quarter, andWhile forecasts in the U.S. and Mexico remain below the
generally confident employers in the countrystheir historical
averages, fourth-quarter hiring intentions Mining &
Construction sector report the first negativein both countries are
the most optimistic since the Outlook in three years. Canadas
hiring plans fall forthird quarter of 2008. The hopeful Outlook
reported in the third consecutive quarter, but the Net
Employmentthe United States is unchanged quarter-over-quarter
Outlook remains cautiously optimistic and is boosted,and is led by
favorable hiring plans in the Wholesale in part, by upbeat hiring
projections in the Mining and& Retail Trade, Leisure &
Hospitality and Professional Transportation & Public Utilities
industry sectors.& Business Services sectors. The
fourth-quarterArgentina Brazil 50 50 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 0
-10 -10 Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook Net
Employment Outlook -20 -20 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
2011 2012 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
2012Argentina joined the survey in Q1 2007. Brazil joined the
survey in Q4 2009. 13
16. Manpower Employment Outlook Survey IndiaCanada Colombia 50
50 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 0 -10 -10 Seasonally Adjusted Outlook
Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment
Outlook -20 -20 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Colombia joined
the survey in Q4 2008.Costa Rica Guatemala 50 50 40 40 30 30 20 20
10 10 0 0 -10 -10 Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment
Outlook Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook -20 -20
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2003 2004 2005
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012Costa Rica joined the survey in
Q3 2006. Guatemala joined the survey in Q2 2008.Mexico Panama 50 60
40 50 30 40 30 20 20 10 10 0 0 -10 -10 Seasonally Adjusted Outlook
Net Employment Outlook Net Employment Outlook -20 -20 2003 2004
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012No bar indicates Net Employment Outlook of
zero. Panama joined the survey in Q2 2010.Peru USA 60 50 50 40 40
30 30 20 20 10 10 0 0 -10 -10 Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net
Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment
Outlook -20 -20 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012Peru joined the
survey in Q2 2006. No bar indicates Net Employment Outlook of
zero.14
17. International Comparisons EMEAMore than 20,000 employers
across 24 countries in compared to three months ago. However, the
fourth-the Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA) region quarter
research reveals a weakening trend throughoutwere interviewed to
gauge anticipated hiring activity the region in the Manufacturing
sector, with hiringfor Quarter 4 2012. Employers in Finland
participate in set to slow in 17 of the 24 countries. This
projectedManpowerGroups labor market research for the first
slowdown is most evident in Poland where twice astime in the fourth
quarter. many employers expect to shed staff compared to three
months ago.Fourth-quarter hiring expectations are positive in
only13 of 24 countries with Net Employment Outlooks Elsewhere,
hiring optimism among Turkish employersimproving or remaining
stable from three months ago is boosted by a considerably improved
forecast in thein 13 labor markets. The year-over-year analysis
also Pharmaceutical sector in anticipation of a brisk
fourth-reveals that many employers are scaling back their quarter
hiring pace. In Norway, the petroleum sectorhiring plans; job
prospects weaken in 15 labor markets, continues to drive labor
demand. Engineers are inand employers in nine European countries
report particularly short supply, and employers in this
sector,negative hiring intentions for the last three months of as
well as those in Healthcare and Services have foundthe year.
Opportunities for job seekers are expected to it necessary to
routinely recruit from abroad to securebe strongest in Turkey,
Romania, Israel and Norway and the talent they need. Opportunities
for job seekersweakest in Greece and Italy. in Switzerland are also
expected to improve in both quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year
comparisons,Despite ongoing instability in the eurozone, the
driven, in part, by three consecutive quarters of steadyFrench,
German and UK labor markets exhibit some improvement in the
countrys Wholesale & Retail Traderesiliency and hiring
intentions remain relatively stable sector.Austria Belgium 50 50 40
40 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 0 -10 -10 Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net
Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment
Outlook -20 -20 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012No bar indicates
Net Employment Outlook of zero. No bar indicates Net Employment
Outlook of zero.Bulgaria Czech Republic 50 50 40 40 30 30 20 20 10
10 0 0 -10 -10 Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted Outlook
Net Employment Outlook -20 -20 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
2010 2011 2012 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
2012Bulgaria joined the survey in Q1 2011. Czech Republic joined
the survey in Q2 2008. No bar indicates Net Employment Outlook of
zero. 15
18. Manpower Employment Outlook Survey IndiaFinland France 50
50 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 0 -10 -10 Net Employment Outlook
Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook -20 -20 2003
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2003 2004 2005 2006
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012Finland joined the survey in Q4 2012.
No bar indicates Net Employment Outlook of zero.Germany Greece 50
50 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 0 -10 -10 Seasonally Adjusted Outlook
Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook Net Employment
Outlook -20 -20 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Greece joined the
survey in Q2 2008. No bar indicates Net Employment Outlook of
zero.Hungary Ireland 50 50 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 0 -10 -10 Net
Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment
Outlook -20 -20 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012Hungary joined the
survey in Q3 2009. No bar indicates Net Employment Outlook of
zero.No bar indicates Net Employment Outlook of zero.Israel Italy
50 50 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 0 -10 -10 Net Employment Outlook
Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook -20 -20 2003
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2003 2004 2005 2006
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012Israel joined the survey in Q4 2011.
No bar indicates Net Employment Outlook of zero.16
19. Netherlands Norway 50 50 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 0 -10
-10 Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook Seasonally
Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook -20 -20 2003 2004 2005 2006
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
2010 2011 2012No bar indicates Net Employment Outlook of
zero.Poland Romania 50 50 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 0 -10 -10
Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook Seasonally
Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook -20 -20 2003 2004 2005 2006
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
2010 2011 2012Poland joined the survey in Q2 2008. Romania joined
the survey in Q2 2008. No bar indicates Net Employment Outlook of
zero.Slovakia Slovenia 50 50 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 0 -10 -10
Net Employment Outlook Net Employment Outlook -20 -20 2003 2004
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012Slovakia joined the survey in Q4 2011.
Slovenia joined the survey in Q1 2011. No bar indicates Net
Employment Outlook of zero.South Africa Spain 50 50 40 40 30 30 20
20 10 10 0 0 -10 -10 Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment
Outlook Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment Outlook -20 -20
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2003 2004 2005
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012South Africa joined the survey in
Q4 2006. No bar indicates Net Employment Outlook of zero.No bar
indicates Net Employment Outlook of zero. 17
20. Manpower Employment Outlook Survey IndiaSweden Switzerland
50 50 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 0 -10 -10 Seasonally Adjusted
Outlook Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net
Employment Outlook -20 -20 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
2011 2012 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012No bar
indicates Net Employment Outlook of zero. Switzerland joined the
survey in Q3 2005. No bar indicates Net Employment Outlook of
zero.Turkey UK 50 50 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 0 -10 -10 Net
Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment
Outlook -20 -20 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012Turkey joined the
survey in Q1 2011. No bar indicates Net Employment Outlook of
zero.18
21. About the SurveyThe Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is
conducted Net Employment Outlookquarterly to measure employers
intentions to increase ordecrease the number of employees in their
workforces during Throughout this report, we use the term Net
Employmentthe next quarter. The survey has been running for 50
years Outlook. This figure is derived by taking the percentageand
is one of the most trusted surveys of employment activity of
employers anticipating an increase in hiring activity andin the
world. Various factors underpin the success of the subtracting from
this the percentage of employers expectingManpower Employment
Outlook Survey: to see a decrease in employment at their location
in the next quarter. The result of this calculation is the Net
EmploymentUnique: It is unparalleled in its size, scope, longevity
and area Outlook.of focus.Projective: The Manpower Employment
Outlook Survey is Seasonal Adjustmentthe most extensive,
forward-looking employment survey in Seasonal adjustments have been
applied to the data forthe world, asking employers to forecast
employment over the Argentina, Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada,
Colombia,next quarter. In contrast, other surveys and studies focus
on Costa Rica, China, the Czech Republic, France,
Germany,retrospective data to report on what occurred in the past.
Greece, Guatemala, Hong Kong, India, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Mexico,
Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Peru,Independent: The survey is
conducted with a representative Poland, Romania, Singapore, South
Africa, Spain, Sweden,sample of employers from throughout the
countries in which Switzerland, Taiwan, the United Kingdom and the
Unitedit is conducted. The survey participants are not derived from
States to provide additional insight into the survey data.Manpowers
customer base. These adjustments make it possible to review the
data without the employment fluctuations that normally occur
atRobust: The survey is based on interviews with nearly the same
time each year, thus providing a clearer picture of66,000 public
and private employers across 41 countries the data over time.
ManpowerGroup intends to add seasonaland territories to measure
anticipated employment trends adjustments to the data for other
countries in the future, aseach quarter. This sample allows for
analysis to be performed more historical data is compiled. Note
that in Quarter 2 2008,across specific sectors and regions to
provide more detailed ManpowerGroup adopted the TRAMO-SEATS method
ofinformation. seasonal adjustment for data.Focused: For nearly
five decades, the survey has derived allof its information from a
single question.Survey QuestionAll employers participating in the
survey worldwide are askedthe same question, How do you anticipate
total employmentat your location to change in the three months to
the end ofDecember 2012 as compared to the current
quarter?MethodologyThe Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is
conductedusing a validated methodology, in accordance with
thehighest standards in market research. The research team forthe
42 countries and territories where the survey is currentlyconducted
includes ManpowerGroups internal researchteam and Infocorp Ltd. The
survey has been structured to berepresentative of each national
economy. The margin of errorfor all national, regional and global
data is not greater than+/- 3.9%. 19
22. Manpower Employment Outlook Survey IndiaHistory of the
Survey1962 First generation of the Manpower Employment Outlook 2007
ManpowerGroup operations in Argentina join the Survey launched in
the United States and Canada. Manpower Employment Outlook Survey.
The survey in1966 ManpowerGroups United Kingdom operation launches
New Zealand adds seasonally adjusted data in the first the
equivalent of the United States survey, naming the quarter. report
the Quarterly Survey of Employment Prospects. 2008 ManpowerGroup
operations in Colombia, the Czech The survey adopts the same
forward looking research Republic, Greece, Guatemala, Poland and
Romania format as the United States survey and is the first of its
join the survey program. China and Taiwan add kind in Europe.
seasonally adjusted data in the second quarter. India1976 Second
generation of the Manpower Employment and Switzerland add
seasonally adjusted data in the Outlook Survey launched in the
United States and third quarter. Canada. Research methodology is
updated to evolve 2009 ManpowerGroup operations in Hungary and
Brazil with advancements in the field of market research. launch
the Manpower Employment Outlook Survey.2002 ManpowerGroup United
Kingdoms Quarterly Survey of Employment Prospects is updated to
adopt an 2010 ManpowerGroups Panama operation launches the enhanced
research metho