Employment and Social Inclusion in a Green Economy: Some Measurements and Analytical Issues

UNEP Green Economy Week

Dr. Moustapha Kamal GueyePolicy Specialist, Green Jobs

(gueye@ilo.org)

International Labour Organization

Employment and Social Inclusion:

Policy and Analytical Questions and Issues

Green Economy and Labour Market Dynamics

• Nearly 200 million unemployed (74 million youth) – 500 million more job seekers over the next decade – 397 million workers are living in extreme poverty

• Environmental sustainability can be a driver of economic growth,

but …

• Understanding the labour market dynamics is critical:

– Transitions will cause shifts in the volume, composition and quality of employment across sectors

– Affect the level and distribution of income

– Environmental jobs created in the process must be green and decent i.e. green jobs

Key Areas of Interventions and Measurement

• Three intervention areas >>> implications for assessments:

1. Creating more jobs Providing evidence that greening will lead to net growth in

employment

2. Ensuring quality employment Ensuring that jobs created meet decent work criteriaAddressing issues specific to the informal sector

3. Advancing social inclusionSocial protection policies, occupational changes, skills

building and upgrading, retraining of workers

Creating More Jobs: Potential Job and Productivity Gains

• At least half of the global workforce, the equivalent of 1.5 billion people, will be affected by the transition to a greener economy. 8 key sectors are expected to play a central role: agriculture, forestry, fishing, energy, resource-intensive manufacturing, recycling, building and transport.

Whereas a greener economy and more sustainable enterprises is creating tens of millions of green jobs: 15-60 million potential additional jobs globally over the next two decades.

The resource-intensive development model of the past will lead to rising costs, loss of productivity and disruption of economic activity: productivity levels would lower by 2.4% in 2030 and 7.2% by 2050 in a BAU (ILO Global Economic Linkages model).

Source: ILO 2012, “Working towards sustainable development. Opportunities for decent work and social inclusion in a green economy”. http://www.ilo.org/global/publications/ilo-bookstore/order-online/books/WCMS_181836/lang--en/index.htm

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Measuring the Quality of Jobs: The Challenge of Decent Work Indicators

4 Elements of decent work:

• Adequate incomes for basic needs

• Reasonable level of economic security

• Freedom, basic rights, opportunities

• Voice, self-esteem, self-fulfilment, dignity

Basic rights

at work

Social protectionEmployment

+ income

Social dialogue

Inclusiveness: Skills for Green Jobs - Status, Gaps and Opportunities

• At different levels: enterprise, industry, government (national, regional, local), by universities, training providers, research institutes, NGOs and international donors

• Inside and outside existing education and training systems and mechanisms

• Fostering social dialogue

Main findings of 21 country study: Underestimated growth of green sectors General lack of scientists and engineers National skill structure does not meet skills demand Low reputation of sectors - failure to attract trainees Poor coordination

Source: ILO 2011 “Skills for green jobs: A global view” and other products from the EC and ILO joint management agreement “Knowledge sharing on early identification of skill needs” http://www.ilo.org/skills/projects/WCMS_140837/lang--en/index.htm.

Green Economy, Structural Change and Implications for Labour Markets

• Additional jobs will be created.• Some employment will be substituted• Certain jobs may be eliminated without direct

replacement• Many existing jobs will be redefined

• New jobs created will offset those lost

• But those who will get green jobs are not necessarily those who will have lost their jobs

Retraining

matters

Source: ILO 2011 “Skills for green jobs: A global view” and other products from the EC and ILO joint management agreement “Knowledge sharing on early identification of skill needs” http://www.ilo.org/skills/projects/WCMS_140837/lang--en/index.htm.

Assessment Tools and Methods

What are green jobs? Current Policy Definition

Green jobs are decent jobs in agriculture, manufacturing or services that:• Reduce consumption of energy and raw materials • Limit green house gas emissions• Minimize waste and pollution• Protect and restore ecosystems

(Source: Green Jobs: Towards decent work in a sustainable, low-carbon world UNEP/ILO/IOE/ITUC, 2008)

• Jobs are green by products/services or processes• Green jobs include all jobs – shades of green• Shades of green

• The environmental sector consists of all economic units that carry out environmental activities. – Environmental protection activities are those activities

whose primary purpose is the prevention, reduction and elimination of pollution and other forms of degradation of the environment.

– Resource management activities are those activities whose primary purpose is the preservation and maintenance of the stock of natural resources and hence safeguarding against depletion.

Statistical Definition: Concept and Domain of the Environmental Sector

Source: ICLS 2013 - Guidelines concerning a statistical definition of employment in the environmental sector

Employment in (A) production of environmental output (B) environmental processes

• Two distinct concepts that refer – to different aspects of the ‘greening’ of employment– to different targets for policy-making.

• Measurement requires different methods

• Separate statistics should be produced for each component• The two components cannot be aggregated - double counting

Statistical Definition: Concept and Domain of Employment in the Environmental Sector

Source: ICLS 2013 - Guidelines concerning a statistical definition of employment in the environmental sector

B - Employment in environmental processesC- Decent Jobs

A- Employment in production of environmental outputs

D: Jobs in non-environmental sector created thanks to greening

Total employment

Employment in the Environmental Sector

Employment in environmental sector= ABEmployment created thanks to greening = ABD Green jobs (Employment in Environmental Sector that is decent)= (AB)C

A. Employment in production of environmental outputs is defined as employment in the production of environmental goods and services for consumption outside the producing unit. B. Employment in environmental processes is defined as employment in the production of environmental goods and services for consumption within the producing unit.

– The term ‘green jobs’ refers to a subset of employment in the environmental sector that meets the requirements of decent work (i.e. adequate wages, safe conditions, workers’ rights, social dialogue and social protection).

– The decent work dimension of jobs in the environmental sector may be measured according to relevant indicators selected from the ILO manual on Decent Work Indicators

Statistical Definition of “Green jobs”

Source: ICLS 2013 - Guidelines concerning a statistical definition of employment in the environmental sector

The Practitioners’ Guide

5 steps

Identify Green sectors through :

(i) Natural resource conservation approach

(ii) Process-based approach

(iii) Output-based approach

Get Input-Output Table from Central Statistical Office (CSO)Get Employment Survey

Achieving Decent Jobs and Social Inclusion

Assessment of Green Jobs Actual/Potential

Social Dialogue

Technical advice, Skills development,

Entrepreneurship promotion

Pilot ProjectsGreen Jobs Strategy and Policy

Support to Policy Implementation

More and better jobs

Thank you

• International Labour Organisation: http://www.ilo.org/global/lang--en/index.htm

• Green Jobs Programme of the ILO: www.ilo.org/green-jobs-programme

• International Training Centre of the ILO: http://www.itcilo.org/en