Employment and Social Inclusion for Green Growth in Africa

Amal Mowafy and Moustapha Kamal Gueye

Decent Jobs for Egypt’s Young People Project (DJEP) / ILO Green Jobs Programme

International Labour Organization

Outline

1. Global employments trends and Africa

2. Growth, productivity and poverty: The African context

3. Green economy and labor market dynamics

4. Building and upgrading skills

5. Unleashing African green entrepreneurship

6. Working with the informal sector for better jobs

Global employment trends

• Almost 202 million people unemployed in 2013, an annual increase of almost 5.

• Global unemployment set to worsen - more than 215 million jobseekers by 2018.

• Youth unemployment rate at 13.1% is almost three times as high as the adult unemployment rate – reaching a historical peak.

• Total unemployment in SSA is at 7.8%. Higher in North Africa, particularly for youth.

• Vulnerable employment is at 77.4% - the highest of all regions (world average 48%).

• Working poverty is declining slower than in previous decades, with 839 million workers (or 26.7% of total employment) living on less than US$2 a day.

Source: ILO: Global Employment Trends 2014

Growth, productivity and poverty in Africa

• Economic growth improved certain labour market indicators, however employment and poverty reduction still limited, because:

– Low growth–poverty elasticity: a 1% increase in growth reduces poverty by only 1.6% in SSA, compared to 3.2% in North Africa and 4.2% in Eastern Europe and Western Asia (UNECA/AUC, Economic Report on Africa, 2011).

– Low national and regional productivity in particular due to agriculture and its large share in most economies (ILO, Global Employment Trends 2013).

• Employment only plays its intermediary role between growth and poverty reduction if jobs are productive.

• A green economy could offer opportunities to improve both resource and labor productivity.

Green economy and labour market dynamics

• Green growth can affect labor markets primarily in two ways:

– Transitions will cause shifts in the volume, composition and quality of employment across sectors,

– Affect the level and distribution of income.

• More and better jobs can be achieved. However, such gains are not achieved by default, but by design. Green economy policies should:

– Stimulate job creation as an objectives, and not as an automatically result of growth,

– Ensure that jobs created meet decent work criteria - Addressing issues specific to the informal sector,

– Advance social inclusion with dedicated social protection policies, skills buildings and upgrading and retraining of workers.

New job creationE.g. Renewable energy sector; energy performance service companies; mobility services

Elimination E.g. Inefficient coal mining; packaging (materials discouraged or banned);

SubstitutionE.g. Shifting from fossil fuels to RE&EE, automobiles to mass transit, waste disposal to recycling, primary metals production to secondary production

TransformationE.g. Existing jobs greened along with changed workplace practices and methods.Supply-chain effects (steel for wind turbines)

Nature and scale of likely employment changes

Source: ILO, 2011, Skills for green jobs: A global review

Green growth could offer more jobs at the global level

The resource-intensive development model of the past will lead to rising costs, loss of productivity and disruption of economic activity:

In a BAU scenario (ILO Global Economic Linkages model)

• Productivity level drop 2.4% by 2030; 7.2% by 2050.

In contrast

In a Green Economy (ILO Global Economic Linkages model)

• 0.5-2% Net job gains = this translates in 15-60 million additional jobs globally.

• Multi-factor productivity can improve by 1.5% by 2020; 5% by 2050.

8 key sectors are expected to play a central role: agriculture, forestry, fishing, energy, resource-intensive manufacturing, recycling, building and transport.

Source: ILO 2012, “Working towards sustainable development. Opportunities for decent work and social inclusion in a green economy

Policies matter to deliver positive employment and poverty outcomes

• Namibia National Employment Policy (2013-2017) includes in its policy framework a specific chapter on “Sustainable development: greening the economy and green jobs”.

• Senegal National Strategy for Economic and Social Development (2013-2017) includes specific objectives of promoting a green economy and green job creation.

• South Africa Green Economy Accord seeks to create 300,000 new green jobs by 2020.

• Sustainable Development Strategy: Egypt 2030

• It includes a chapter on the “environment” that seeks to provide sustained improvement of the quality of life for the present generations and raise awareness about protecting the environment and reduce the climate impact change, through implementing developing policies.

• Another chapter on “economy” is included that seeks to provide a market economy characterized by a stable macroeconomic environment, capable of achieving sustainable inclusive growth, capable of adjusting to international developments, and of maximizing value added, able to generate adequate and productive job opportunities, and can achieve a real GDP per capita that is similar to high-middle income countries.

Building skills to enable green growth

Findings of 21 country studies (incl. Egypt, Mali, South Africa and Uganda): Countries underestimated growth of green sectors General lack of scientists and engineers National skill structure does not meet skills demand

Most African countries display a weak coordination between environmental policies and skills needed for the green economy

Source: ILO, 2011Skills for green jobs: A global review

Unleashing African green entrepreneurship

• In Egypt, 167 waste management companies have been established since 2012.– 100 companies in Cairo and Giza (2012 – Present)– 50 companies in Dokki, Agouza and Imbaba districts (2014-

2015)– 17 companies in Port Said (2014)

Challenges to African entrepreneurs

One UN programme in Zambia

Programme components

• Policy, regulatory and legal framework for green business enabling environment (UNEP)

• Mindsets, business model, competency and skills for green jobs (ILO)

• Markets and business linkages for growth (UNCTAD)

• Financial Services (ITC)• Materials and Products (FAO)

12.1MUSD 2012 – 2017 (funded by Finland)

Expected outcomes

• 5,000 new green jobs are created

• 2,000 better green jobso Social Securityo Health and

Safetyo Gender Equality

Thank you

• International Labour Organisation: http://www.ilo.org/global/lang--en/index.htm

• Green Jobs Programme of the ILO: www.ilo.org/green-jobs-programme

• International Training Centre of the ILO: http://www.itcilo.org/en

• Potential Impacts of Climate Change on the Egyptian Economyhttp://www.eg.undp.org/content/dam/egypt/docs/Publications/Docs%20Environment/01_Potential%20ImpactofCConEgyptianEconomyEnglish.pdf

• Egypt’s National Strategy for Adaptation to Climate Change And Disaster Risk Reduction http://cairoclimatetalks.net/sites/default/files/Adaptation%20Strategy%20-%20Final%20-%20E.pdf