Emerging Limited Intensity and S ub -Tactical Threats ... · Tu -22M3 -R downed Gori 9 Aug radar -guided GB missile –Probably 9K37 Buk (SA -11) possibly from Ukraine Modernisation

Slide No Slide No 11

©© Bruce Jones 2008Bruce Jones 2008

CIS Centre

AIR DEFENCE SYSTEMS 2008 CONFERENCEAIR DEFENCE SYSTEMS 2008 CONFERENCEBERLIN 16BERLIN 16--17 SEPTEMBER 200817 SEPTEMBER 2008

Emerging Emerging Limited Intensity and SLimited Intensity and Subub--Tactical Tactical ThreatsThreatsRUSSIA, GEORGIA, SOUTH OSSETIARUSSIA, GEORGIA, SOUTH OSSETIA

Presentation by Bruce JonesPresentation by Bruce JonesEE--mail: mail: [email protected]@ciscentre.eu



CIS CentreStateState--based Threatsbased ThreatsAsymmetricAsymmetric

▪▪ Russian reassertionRussian reassertion▪▪ Limited intensity, sLimited intensity, subub--tactical tactical aggression aggression ▪▪ Unconventional, subUnconventional, sub--critical threats critical threats ▪▪ Fast changing situationFast changing situation



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SubSub--Tactical State Based ThreatsTactical State Based Threats

▪▪ Russian civil and military over flights, incursions and exerciseRussian civil and military over flights, incursions and exercisess–– Fast jets, LR bombers, Fast jets, LR bombers, paxpax aircraft, aircraft carriersaircraft, aircraft carriers

▪▪ Baltic States, Finland, UK, Norway, US Eastern SeaboardBaltic States, Finland, UK, Norway, US Eastern Seaboard



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GEORGIAGEORGIA



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Russian Strategic ObjectivesRussian Strategic ObjectivesElephant in the RoomElephant in the RoomRUSSIAN STRATEGIC OBJECTIVESRUSSIAN STRATEGIC OBJECTIVES



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““Collapse of the Soviet Union was greatestCollapse of the Soviet Union was greatestgeopolitical catastrophe of 20th centurygeopolitical catastrophe of 20th century””

Vladimir Putin April 2006Vladimir Putin April 2006



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1.1. Speed, surprise and momentumSpeed, surprise and momentum2.2. Force and firepowerForce and firepower3.3. Manoeuvrability, agility and lightweight Manoeuvrability, agility and lightweight 4.4. Coordinated and carried out simultaneously throughout enemy deptCoordinated and carried out simultaneously throughout enemy depthh

** By definition integrated, By definition integrated, ‘‘Combined ArmsCombined Arms’’

Russian Established Military Russian Established Military ““DoctrineDoctrine””



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Disinformation Warfare and Long Term Media and Web Conditioning:Disinformation Warfare and Long Term Media and Web Conditioning:▪▪ As Sudetenland 1939 even locals unable distinguish fact, fictionAs Sudetenland 1939 even locals unable distinguish fact, fiction, , ½½ truthtruthCyber Attack:Cyber Attack:▪▪ Especially subEspecially sub--critical against banks, media and telecomm companiescritical against banks, media and telecomm companiesEconomic Warfare:Economic Warfare:▪▪ Bans, blockades and boycotts against goods, transport, freight aBans, blockades and boycotts against goods, transport, freight and on visasnd on visas

Incorporation of Additional 21Incorporation of Additional 21stst Century Century ‘‘Combined ArmsCombined Arms’’ ElementsElements



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▪▪ Sufficient rapidly deployable and projectable unitsSufficient rapidly deployable and projectable units▪▪ Able to use limited forces and assets effectively and flexiblyAble to use limited forces and assets effectively and flexibly▪▪ New effective conventional firepower technologyNew effective conventional firepower technology▪▪ Probable secret, new technology weapons programmesProbable secret, new technology weapons programmes

Russian Military ReformRussian Military Reform



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Seem aware, capable of exploitation of nonSeem aware, capable of exploitation of non--critical, subcritical, sub--tactical threats:tactical threats:▪▪ Infliction of near military effectsInfliction of near military effects▪▪ On nonOn non--defence targetsdefence targets▪▪ By nonBy non--military meansmilitary means▪▪ Often countered most effectively using national defence resourceOften countered most effectively using national defence resourcess

Unwritten Russian Destabilisation Doctrine Unwritten Russian Destabilisation Doctrine Asymmetric EffectsAsymmetric Effects



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GeorgiaGeorgiaSEQUENCE OF EVENTSSEQUENCE OF EVENTS



CIS CentreSequence of EventsSequence of Events‘‘Time of TensionTime of Tension’’ Build Up and Precursors Summer 2008Build Up and Precursors Summer 2008

▪▪ July 2007 Russian Air Force exercise July 2007 Russian Air Force exercise ““Caucasian Border 2007Caucasian Border 2007””▪▪ 16 July 08 16 July 08 ““KavkazKavkaz 0808”” Russian deployment exercise to North CaucasusRussian deployment exercise to North Caucasus–– 7676thth AB Div, Pskov and 98AB Div, Pskov and 98thth AB Div Moscow MD AB Div Moscow MD

▪▪ 1 Aug 20081 Aug 2008–– Serious crossSerious cross--border fire from South Ossetiaborder fire from South Ossetia–– Russian media briefed times and places to be Russian media briefed times and places to be –– DDoSDDoS Cyber Attacks begin against Georgia Cyber Attacks begin against Georgia –– ‘‘Russian forces preparing to reinforce South OssetiaRussian forces preparing to reinforce South Ossetia’’–– Civilians evacuated from South Ossetia border areasCivilians evacuated from South Ossetia border areas

▪▪ 5 Aug 20085 Aug 2008–– KZ KZ ‘‘Red StarRed Star’’ reports Georgians going to attackreports Georgians going to attack



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WarWar



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Opening of HostilitiesOpening of Hostilities

▪▪ 7 Aug 08 Georgian forces enter South Ossetia7 Aug 08 Georgian forces enter South Ossetia–– Alleged attacks on civilian populationAlleged attacks on civilian population

▪▪ 8 August 2008 Russian counter8 August 2008 Russian counter--attacks, first air raids on Georgiaattacks, first air raids on Georgia▪▪ 9 August 2008 Russian Forces take most of South Ossetia9 August 2008 Russian Forces take most of South Ossetia–– 7676thth, 96, 96thth AB AB DivsDivs, 45, 45thth SpetsnazSpetsnaz Regt airlifted to Regt airlifted to TskhinvaliTskhinvali



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Georgian Georgian ‘‘SITREPSSITREPS’’ MapMap

Bolnisi Bombing:

16:30 08.08.2008

Variani, Kareli:

District

Bombing 10.30

08.08.2008

Gori: Bombing

10.57 08.08.2008

Marneu

Bombin

08.08.20Marneuli:

Russian troops

attacking

Tskhinvali

18.44 08.08.2008

Gori: Bombing

18.45 08.08.2008

Poti: Bombing

00.12 09.08.2008

Senaki: Bombing

00.17 09.08.2008

Poti: Bombing

01.00 09.08.2008

Russian Planes passing

over Ambrolauri 19.20

08.08.2008

Flying over Djava

16.03 08.08.08

SU 24 Flying

over

Tskhinvali12.05

08.08.08

Village Shavshvebi:

Bombing 09.45

08.08.08

Gori: Bombing

10.22 09.08.08

Upper Abkhazia Bombing:

14:00, 09.08.08

Kopitnari Airport, 10:00,

09.08.08

Kopitnari Airport 12:40

09.08.08

Four Russian Jets Flying

over Upper Abkhazia

16:05c

Russian Planes

Bombarding Oni 16:35,

09.08.08



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Russian Russian ‘‘OpsOps’’ in Georgiain Georgia--South OssetiaSouth Ossetia



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AIR SERIALS ONLYAIR SERIALS ONLY

Government of GeorgiaGovernment of Georgia

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASEFOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

Timeline of Events in the Timeline of Events in the

Russians Invasion & Occupation of GeorgiaRussians Invasion & Occupation of Georgia

The information below is accurate to the best of our The information below is accurate to the best of our

knowledge, but is subject to verification.knowledge, but is subject to verification.



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IndexIndex

RedRed = Defence and Infrastructure Targets e.g. = Defence and Infrastructure Targets e.g. ““RadarRadar””

YellowYellow = Aircraft Type e.g. = Aircraft Type e.g. ““SuSu--2424””

GreenGreen = Downed Aircraft e.g. = Downed Aircraft e.g. ““CrashedCrashed””



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Thursday 07 August 2008Thursday 07 August 2008

09:4509:45 Russian jet bombs Georgian military Russian jet bombs Georgian military radarradar base 30 base 30 kmskms outside conflict zone outside conflict zone



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Friday 08 August 2008 (I)Friday 08 August 2008 (I)

09.4509.45 Russian fighter bombs military Russian fighter bombs military radarradar 30 kilometres outside conflict zone 30 kilometres outside conflict zone

11:4511:45 Civil Aviation reports Russian fighter signal Civil Aviation reports Russian fighter signal crashed crashed near near IuriIuri range 17 range 17 kmskms S of S of GoriGori

10.3010.30 Civilians injured by Civilians injured by SuSu--2424 bombs at bombs at VarianiVariani village 20 village 20 kmskms outside conflict zone outside conflict zone

10.5010.50 Six Russian Six Russian SuSu--2424 fighter jets enter Georgia from the Russian Federation fighter jets enter Georgia from the Russian Federation

10:5710:57 Russian aircraft drop three bombs on Russian aircraft drop three bombs on GoriGori, outside conflict zone , outside conflict zone

11.4511.45 Four Four SuSu--2424 Russian fighter jets enter Georgia Russian fighter jets enter Georgia

12.0512.05 Russian Russian SuSu--2424 enters Georgian air space from Russia and remain over enters Georgian air space from Russia and remain over TskhinvaliTskhinvali



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Friday 08 August 2008 (2)Friday 08 August 2008 (2)

15:0515:05 Russian airplane bombs Russian airplane bombs VazianiVaziani airfieldairfield on outskirts of Tbilisi on outskirts of Tbilisi

16.3016.30 Russia bombs Georgian Russia bombs Georgian airfieldsairfields S of Tbilisi S of Tbilisi

17:0017:00 MarneuliMarneuli airbaseairbase 20 20 kmskms from Tbilisi outside conflict zone, bombed again, casualties from Tbilisi outside conflict zone, bombed again, casualties

17:3517:35 MarneuliMarneuli airbaseairbase bombed for a third time bombed for a third time

18:3218:32 Georgian villages come under Russian aerial fire Georgian villages come under Russian aerial fire

18:4518:45 Five Russian airplanes bomb Georgian Five Russian airplanes bomb Georgian artillery brigadeartillery brigade in in GoriGori

19:1819:18 Georgian forces near Georgian forces near TskhinvaliTskhinvali down one of five jet during daydown one of five jet during day

19:2019:20 Russian jets pass over Russian jets pass over AmbrolauriAmbrolauri, outside conflict zone 170 , outside conflict zone 170 kmskms NW of Tbilisi NW of Tbilisi

22:4022:40 According to Georgian MoD Russian air space violated According to Georgian MoD Russian air space violated 22 times during day22 times during day



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Saturday 09 August 2008Saturday 09 August 2008

00:1200:12 Russians bomb vital Russians bomb vital port of port of PotiPoti

00:1700:17 Russian air force attacks Russian air force attacks railway stationrailway station and and basebase in in SenakiSenaki

00:20 00:20 Russia bombs Russia bombs airfieldairfield on outskirts of Tbilisi on outskirts of Tbilisi

01:00 01:00 Russian jets continue bombing Russian jets continue bombing PotiPoti portport

01:20 01:20 Russian jets drop bombs Russian jets drop bombs close to BTC pipeline close to BTC pipeline

10:00 10:00 Russian jets bomb Georgian Russian jets bomb Georgian airfieldsairfields

10:20 10:20 Russian Russian jet shot downjet shot down over over GoriGori

10:22 10:22 Russian air force continues to bomb Russian air force continues to bomb GoriGori

12:40 12:40 Russia bombs Russia bombs airfieldairfield near Kutaisi W Georgia near Kutaisi W Georgia

14:00 14:00 Russian aviation attacks Georgian Russian aviation attacks Georgian airfieldairfield in Upper Abkhazia in Upper Abkhazia

16:05 16:05 Four Russian jets over fly Upper Four Russian jets over fly Upper AbkaziaAbkazia

16:35 16:35 Town of Oni, N of Georgia, outside conflict zone, bombed Town of Oni, N of Georgia, outside conflict zone, bombed

22:3022:30 Russian air force bombs Russian air force bombs ChkhaltaChkhalta, , administrative centre of Upper Abkhazia administrative centre of Upper Abkhazia



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Sunday 10 August 2008Sunday 10 August 2008

05:4505:45 Tbilisi Tbilisi airplane factoryairplane factory bombed bombed

07:40 07:40 Russian jets bomb village of Russian jets bomb village of UrtaUrta in in ZugdidiZugdidi district district

08:45 08:45 Ten Russian jets attack Upper Abkhazia. Ten Russian jets attack Upper Abkhazia. One jet downedOne jet downed by Georgian troops by Georgian troops

15:00 15:00 Russian airplanes bomb Russian airplanes bomb KnoleviKnolevi village in N village in N KareliKareli district district

16:05 16:05 GoriGori bombed by Russian aviation bombed by Russian aviation

16:10 16:10 Russia bombs Russia bombs bridge on main eastbridge on main east--west highway west highway

18:00 18:00 Russian airplanes bomb Black Sea town of Russian airplanes bomb Black Sea town of AnakliaAnaklia in in ZugdidiZugdidi district district

19:10 19:10 Second bombing of Tbilisi Second bombing of Tbilisi ““TbilaviamsheniTbilaviamsheni”” aviation factoryaviation factory



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Monday 11 August 2008Monday 11 August 2008

00:30 00:30 Russian aviation bombs Russian aviation bombs radar stationradar station near Tbilisinear Tbilisi--PotiPoti highway highway

03:05 03:05 Villages near Batumi bombed by Russian planes Villages near Batumi bombed by Russian planes

04:37 04:37 Civilian Civilian radarradar destroyed destroyed

05:00 05:00 Russian aviation bombs Russian aviation bombs ShirakiShiraki airfieldairfield in in KakhetiKakheti Region, E of Tbilisi Region, E of Tbilisi

06:10 06:10 GoriGori was bombed. Civilian apartment building destroyed was bombed. Civilian apartment building destroyed

07:15 07:15 SenakiSenaki main W Georgia airportmain W Georgia airport 230 230 kmskms from Tbilisi bombed from Tbilisi bombed

12:05 12:05 Russian Aviation attacks Georgian Russian Aviation attacks Georgian positionspositions in in KodoriKodori Gorge Gorge

14:30 14:30 SenakiSenaki basebase bombed by Russian aviation bombed by Russian aviation

17:30 17:30 Russian Aviation bombs village Russian Aviation bombs village KereKere, , GoriGori District District



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Tuesday 12 August 2008Tuesday 12 August 2008

02:05 02:05 Russia bombs Russia bombs KaspiKaspi, city outside conflict zone , city outside conflict zone

07:00 07:00 Russian airplanes bomb village of Russian airplanes bomb village of TkviaviTkviavi near near TskhinvaliTskhinvali

10:15 10:15 Russians bomb Russians bomb GoriGori, civilians killed, including one journalist , civilians killed, including one journalist

12:25 12:25 Oil pipelineOil pipeline 5 km from city of Rustavi bombed by Russian jets. No damage 5 km from city of Rustavi bombed by Russian jets. No damage

12:30 12:30 VazianiVaziani basebase close to Tbilisi bombed by Russian planes close to Tbilisi bombed by Russian planes

13:25 13:25 Three Russian airplanes drop bombs on the village of Three Russian airplanes drop bombs on the village of OrchosaniOrchosani near near GoriGori

14:00 14:00 An ambulance vehicle targeted by Russian military bombs in villaAn ambulance vehicle targeted by Russian military bombs in village ge AgaraAgara

14:50 14:50 Village Village SakoritnoSakoritno in in KaspiKaspi region and village region and village RuisiRuisi in in KareliKareli region bombed by jets region bombed by jets

18:00 18:00 KuleviKulevi Oil Terminal shareholders threatened with possible bombing by ROil Terminal shareholders threatened with possible bombing by Russian troops ussian troops

18:00 18:00 Russian plane drops 4 bombs on Russian plane drops 4 bombs on TkotsaTkotsa village. None explode village. None explode



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Wednesday 13 August 2008Wednesday 13 August 2008

06:5006:50 Bombing of Bombing of SaqashetiSaqasheti in in GoriGori district district



CIS CentreSophisticated Air Campaign Planning and Strategy: Bringing StratSophisticated Air Campaign Planning and Strategy: Bringing Strategic Successegic SuccessBased Israel 1982 Syria, US Gulf War, Serbia, Afghanistan and OIBased Israel 1982 Syria, US Gulf War, Serbia, Afghanistan and OIFF

▪▪ As US Air Supremacy As US Air Supremacy –– Dominance prerequisiteDominance prerequisite–– Faster than US Faster than US –– NATO Serbia, Afghanistan, Iraq? NATO Serbia, Afghanistan, Iraq?

▪▪ Cyber Attack and Active EW used effectively against Georgian AD Cyber Attack and Active EW used effectively against Georgian AD and Cand C44II▪▪ Blind radar network surprise and freedom of manoeuvre throughoutBlind radar network surprise and freedom of manoeuvre throughout AORAOR▪▪ Strategic 'target set' Strategic 'target set' -- TuTu--22s and Su22s and Su--24s 24s -- bases, airports, ports, bridgesbases, airports, ports, bridges▪▪ 24/7 Close Air Support Su24/7 Close Air Support Su--25s and Mi25s and Mi--24 Hind opportunity targets24 Hind opportunity targets▪▪ MiMi--8/17 transport 8/17 transport heloshelos troops, commanders and casualties troops, commanders and casualties ▪▪ Georgia AOR reinforced from squadron bases throughout RussiaGeorgia AOR reinforced from squadron bases throughout Russia▪▪ Massive airlift 14,000 Massive airlift 14,000 parasparas Sukhumi, Sukhumi, VladikavkazVladikavkaz, An, An--124s and Il124s and Il--76s76s



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Russian Aircraft Systems Comparatively ObsolescentRussian Aircraft Systems Comparatively Obsolescent

Lack:Lack:▪▪ Defensive aid systems against MANPAD Defensive aid systems against MANPAD SAMsSAMs–– Losses to few hundred Georgian Losses to few hundred Georgian MANPADsMANPADs (SA(SA--7, 11s, etc)7, 11s, etc)–– NB: Present lack of pilot tactical manoeuvre autonomy NB: Present lack of pilot tactical manoeuvre autonomy

▪▪ Precision guided munitionsPrecision guided munitions▪▪ Real time ISTARReal time ISTAR



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Russian Offensive Air Operations Doctrine Russian Offensive Air Operations Doctrine

▪▪ Deficiencies could be made up temporarily by tactics and proceduDeficiencies could be made up temporarily by tactics and proceduresres▪▪ Willingness to take risks Willingness to take risks ▪▪ What is successor to local air dominance What is successor to local air dominance –– supremacy?supremacy?



CIS CentreResulting Russian Programmes and Upgrades ApprovedResulting Russian Programmes and Upgrades Approved(Secondary Sources)(Secondary Sources)

▪▪ SukhoiSukhoi SuSu--24M bomber and Su24M bomber and Su--25 ground25 ground--attack upgradesattack upgrades▪▪ New SuNew Su--24M2 and Su24M2 and Su--25SM night attack capability, navigation and 25SM night attack capability, navigation and PGMsPGMs▪▪ Reduce SuReduce Su--25 close air support vulnerability 25 close air support vulnerability -- three shot downthree shot down▪▪ Restart UlanRestart Ulan--Ude production, parts naval SuUde production, parts naval Su--25UTG trainer and Su25UTG trainer and Su--3939▪▪ Enhanced SuEnhanced Su--39 already required for carrier Admiral 39 already required for carrier Admiral KuznetsovKuznetsov▪▪ TuTu--22M322M3--R downed R downed GoriGori 9 Aug radar9 Aug radar--guided GB missileguided GB missile–– Probably 9K37 Probably 9K37 BukBuk (SA(SA--11) possibly from Ukraine 11) possibly from Ukraine

▪▪ Modernisation TuModernisation Tu--22M3, navigation, EW, extended range 22M3, navigation, EW, extended range ▪▪ May renege on 1970s TuMay renege on 1970s Tu--22Ms in22Ms in--flight refuelling capability agreementflight refuelling capability agreement▪▪ Upgrades approved TuUpgrades approved Tu--95MS and 16 Tu95MS and 16 Tu--160 LR bombers160 LR bombers



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Conclusions on War PerformanceConclusions on War Performance



CIS CentreRussian Conventional Military Russian Conventional Military ““DoctrineDoctrine””Demonstrated Well, Performed EffectivelyDemonstrated Well, Performed Effectively

Does what says on packet:Does what says on packet:1.1. Speed, surprise and momentumSpeed, surprise and momentum2.2. Force and firepowerForce and firepower3.3. Manoeuvrability, agility and lightweight Manoeuvrability, agility and lightweight 4.4. Coordinated and carried out simultaneously throughout enemy deptCoordinated and carried out simultaneously throughout enemy depthh

** By definition integrated, By definition integrated, ‘‘Combined ArmsCombined Arms’’



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Result Result -- Likely Erosion of Georgian StateLikely Erosion of Georgian State

How independent, credible and defendable will Georgia be in 2How independent, credible and defendable will Georgia be in 2--3 years with: 3 years with: ▪▪ Economic decay Economic decay ▪▪ Continued draining diplomatic disputes, incidents and wrangling Continued draining diplomatic disputes, incidents and wrangling ▪▪ Corrosive effect of tens of thousands of displaced citizens Corrosive effect of tens of thousands of displaced citizens ▪▪ Its territorial integrity broken by unilateral seizure Its territorial integrity broken by unilateral seizure –– Military occupation of South Ossetia, Abkhazia, Military occupation of South Ossetia, Abkhazia, PotiPoti and and ““buffer zonebuffer zone””



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WHAT NOW?WHAT NOW?



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““The Russian language is a living spaceThe Russian language is a living spacefor millions of people in the worldfor millions of people in the world

that goes far beyond Russia itselfthat goes far beyond Russia itself””

Vladimir PutinVladimir PutinFederal Assembly April 2007Federal Assembly April 2007



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Likely Future PatternsLikely Future PatternsCombinationCombination

▪▪ 1919thth Century Century ‘‘Great GameGreat Game’’ destabilisation and vying for power indestabilisation and vying for power in–– Balkans, Caucasus, Central Asia, Black Sea, Baltic and ArcticBalkans, Caucasus, Central Asia, Black Sea, Baltic and Arctic

▪▪ 1919thth Century Century ‘‘PanPan--SlavismSlavism’’

▪▪ Elements of the Elements of the ‘‘Cold WarCold War’’▪▪ To characterise as To characterise as ‘‘Second Cold WarSecond Cold War’’ counterproductive counterproductive ‘‘Red HerringRed Herring’’ ........



CIS CentreRussia preparing to release the Russia preparing to release the ““Dogs of WarDogs of War””Punch cartoon 17Punch cartoon 17thth June 1876June 1876



CIS Centre

NOT THE END !NOT THE END !

EE--mail: mail: [email protected]@ciscentre.eu

Documents

Emerging Limited Intensity and S ub -Tactical Threats ... · Tu -22M3 -R downed Gori 9 Aug radar -guided GB missile –Probably 9K37 Buk (SA -11) possibly from Ukraine Modernisation