MIT MIT ICAT ICAT

Emergence of Regional Jets and the Implications on Air

Traffic Management

Aleksandra Mozdzanowska and R. John Hansman

Massachusetts Institute of Technology

January 10, 2003

MIT MIT ICAT ICAT Background and Motivation

Airlines are buying regional jets to better match aircraft size to high value demand markets

This growth will accelerate as a result of post 9/11 scope clause renegotiations

This represents a major change from traditional traffic patterns

The air traffic management system will have to adapt to these changes

MIT MIT ICAT ICAT Data

Source: Aircraft Situational Display to Industry (ASDI); fed from Volpe

Analyzed data set: all flight data for flights that departed between between midnight November 14th 2002 GMT and November 15th GMT 2002

MIT MIT ICAT ICAT

Regional Jet Trends

MIT MIT ICAT ICAT Growth in Regional Jets

FAA registration data between 1993 and 2002

Growth in registered RJs is exponential

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

93-3 94-3 95-3 96-3 97-3 98-3 99-3 00-3 01-3 02-3

Su

mm

ed

Re

gis

tra

tio

ns

BAE-146

ERJ-135

ERJ-145

CRJ-700

CRJ-200

CRJ-100

MIT MIT ICAT ICAT Utilization of Regional Jets

Comparison between 1992 and 2001

Shows a change in the composition and utilization of national fleet

43.2

17.2

18.4

21.2

New Routes

Replace Traditional JetRoutes

Replace TurbopropRoutes

Supplement TraditionalJet Routes

Source: Regional Air Service Initiative

MIT MIT ICAT ICAT Distance Histogram

Calculated as great circle distance between first and last update point

Gap between regional and traditional jets is closing

Average regional distance in 1998 was 375 miles compared to 424 miles here

Means that regional jets and traditional jets are being used in the same ways

MIT MIT ICAT ICAT Traditional Jet Density

Density covers the entire US Light blue 1-2

flights Dark red > 40

flights Concentrated at

hubs Large number of

transcontinental flights

MIT MIT ICAT ICAT Regional Jet Density

High concentration of flights in the north east Light blue 1-2

flights Dark red > 20

flights Concentrated at

hubs Few

transcontinental flights

MIT MIT ICAT ICAT Turboprop Density

Fewer number of flights compared to traditional and regional jets Light blue 1-2

flights Dark red > 10

flights Concentrated at

hubs No

transcontinental flights

Few flights connecting hubs

MIT MIT ICAT ICAT

Performance Implications

MIT MIT ICAT ICAT Airport Implications

Regional jets and traditional jets compete for runway space, while turboprops can use shorter runways

Regional jets have a longer ground roll than turboprops

Increase in regional jets means an increase of operations for the same number of passengers

MIT MIT ICAT ICAT

Atlanta Airport Surface Diagram

MIT MIT ICAT ICAT

Newark Airport Surface Diagram

MIT MIT ICAT ICAT Implications at Cruise

Regional jets and traditional jets share some high density flight routes

The two types of jets perform differently at cruise

MIT MIT ICAT ICAT Altitude Histogram

Turboprops cruise lower than the jets, and have almost no interaction with them at cruise

High level of interaction between regional jets and traditional jets between 28,000 ft and 32,000 ft

MIT MIT ICAT ICAT Speed Histogram

Regional jets have an average cruise speed that is lower than traditional jets

MIT MIT ICAT ICAT Flights from CLE to ORD

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

Time (minutes)

Sp

eed

(kn

ots

) E145

E135CRJ2

B733A320

A319

In a specific example regional and traditional jets have about the same speed

This means that either the traditional jets are slowing down or the regional jets are forced to fly above optimum cruise speed

MIT MIT ICAT ICAT

Implications for the Terminal Area

Regional jets seem to climb slower than traditional jets, which can pose problems for air traffic controllers

MIT MIT ICAT ICAT Flights from CLE to ORD

Climb rate and slope below 10,000 ft are the same for regional and traditional jets

Above 10,000 ft ERJs emerge as having a slower climb rate and slope

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

Time (minutes)

Alt

itu

de (

flig

ht

level)

E145E135

CRJ2

B733A320

A319

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400

Distance (miles)

Alt

itu

de (

flig

ht

level)

E145

E135

CRJ2

B733

A320A319

MIT MIT ICAT ICAT

Implications for Sector Structure

Sectors currently designed to minimize handoffs

Slower climb of regional jets may increase the handoffs

MIT MIT ICAT ICAT Conclusion

Regional jets are increasingly common in high traffic regions

Performance differences lead to resource contention

Contention may cause delays and increased complexity for controllers

MIT MIT ICAT ICAT

Questions

MIT MIT ICAT ICAT Hub Concentration

Atlanta Hub Cincinnati Hub Atlanta is a regional and traditional jet hub Cincinnati is a regional jet hub