Upload
kinsey
View
25
Download
0
Tags:
Embed Size (px)
DESCRIPTION
Elements of regional climate science- society interaction in Germany. Hans von Storch Institut für Küstenforschung, GKSS Forschungszentrum Geesthacht clisap-Exzellenzzentrum, Klimacampus, Universität Hamburg [email protected] , http://coast.gkss.de/staff/storch. Needed: - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Citation preview
Elements of regional climate science- society interaction in
Germany
Hans von StorchInstitut für Küstenforschung, GKSS Forschungszentrum
Geesthacht
clisap-Exzellenzzentrum, Klimacampus, Universität Hamburg
[email protected], http://coast.gkss.de/staff/storch
Needed:• Separation of popular constructions in the media and
of scientifically valid assessments.• Generally understandable description of recent and
ongoing regional climate change based on scientific results
• Generally understandable description of possible regional climate changes in the future („scenarios“)
• Analysis and derivation of options, from reduction of emissions, to better adaptation, reduction of vulnerability to local mitigation of climate related change.
• Assessment of knowledge on regional climate change (e.g., BACC) derived with scientific methods
These tasks are integrated in “regional climate offices“ and a “Climate Service Center” to improve science-stakeholder interaction in particular regions and on the national/European level
Lund and Stockholm
Two different construction of „climate change“ – scientific and cultural – which
is more powerful?Cultural: „Klimakatastrophe“
Scientific: man-made change is real, can be mitigated to some
extent but not completely avoided
Storm count
Knowledge about ongoing change …
Such as shown by the BACC report, or by the weather services, e.g.,
DMI or SMHI
Centered 99%-iles (top) and
annual means of high water
levels at Cuxhaven, Germany.
GKSS in GeesthachtThe CoastDat data set:• Long (50 years) and high-resolution reconstructions of recent offshore and coastal conditions mainly in terms of wind, storms, waves, surges and currents and other variables in N Europe• Scenarios (100 years) of possible consistent futures of coastal and offshore conditions• extension – ecological variables, Baltic Sea, E Asia, Laptev Sea
Clients:• Governmental: various coastal agencies dealing with coastal defense and coastal traffic• Companies: assessments of risks (ship and offshore building and operations) and opportunities (wind energy)• General public / media: explanations of causes of change; perspectives and options of change
www.coastdat.de
Expected changes in temperature, precipitation and strong winds 2030-2040
Scenarios A2, B2, different models
Temperature PrecipitationMax Wind
Expected changes in temperature, precipitation and strong winds 2071-2100
Scenarios A2, B2, different models
Temperature PrecipitationMax Wind
Changing storm surge heights in Cuxhaven und
HamburgWithout subsidence or coastal engineering modifications of the river Elbe.
Dealing with rising sea level and elevated storm surge heights in Hamburg
1. Additional flooding areas
2. Availability of additional polders to be flooded during severe storm surges to cap the peaks of such surges.
3. Additional dissipation of tidal (and surge) energy by narrowing the mouth segment of the estuary
Heinz Glindemann, HPA, pers. comm.
The Tidal Elbe concept of Hamburg Port Authority
Gill et al.,2007
A mitigation option: reversing (part of) the urban warming by „regional geo-engineering“
Assessing scientifically legitimate knwoledge claims about regional climate change
Assessments about regional climate change
- for the recent past (200 years), for present change and possible future change
- consensus of what is scientifically documented
for+ Baltic Sea (BACC) – done; 2nd report due in 2012+ Hamburg region (underway)+ North Sea (planned with AWI Bremerhaven)+ Laptev Sea (planned with AWI Bremerhaven)
climate consensus reports
in cooperation with HELCOM
Generation & Dissemination of Climate Knowledge
Regional level
National level
North German Climate Officeother regional activities
Climate Service Center (CSC) at GKSS (as national research lab)
Research Results
Information NeedsSocietyEconomyPolitics/AdministrationScience
Bridging the Gap
North German Climate Office
What do we offer?
Communication Communication of of regional climate regional climate change information.change information.
Support Support for correct for correct use and interpretation use and interpretation ofofregional climate regional climate changes scenarios.changes scenarios.
Determination Determination of of informational and informational and interpretative needs interpretative needs among stakeholdersamong stakeholders
Requests for talks
Total number of talks since 2006: 112
Average number of presentations per months.
Jan. 2006-March 2007: 1,0March 2007-Feb. 2008: 4,6March 2008-Jan. 2009: 3,7
Regional level: 69%National level: 19%International level: 12%
Climate sensitive sectors
24%
Organisations22%
Education20%
Politicians and authorities
19%
Science15%
Climate Service Center (CSC)
Climate Service Center (approx. 20 pers)
presently set upSimulation &
Data
Assessment
ConsultingCommu-nication
Federal ministries- of Education and Research (BMBF)- for the Environment and Nature Conservation (BMU)- of Transport, Building and Urban Affairs (BMVBS)
Objectives:• Contact point• Consulting• Generation of Data and Knowledge Base• Active Dissemination
Cooperation with network of existing
institutions
To remember …
• Anthropogenic climate change happens now + here.
• Emerges in temperature and related quantities• Is mainly caused by elevated greenhouse gas
concentrations. • Even a very successful „climate protection“
policy will only limit climate change, not eradicate it.
• A necessity for significant adaptation measures will remain, which needs the administrative and political attention on the regional level.
• Institutions for two-way exchange between science and stakeholders needed.
• Knowledge about regional climate change, impacts and options is needed.