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Electricity Security of Supply
European System Adequacy Forecast
XV Florence Forum, 24-25. November 2008
2 Electricity Security of Supply
Highlights
Background, objectives, necessary improvements
10 years network development statement
Outlook
3 Electricity Security of Supply
Background & History
The XIV Florence Forum (24-26 September 2007) has invited Regulators to continue work on security of supply together with ETSO and other stakeholders
The results of those discussions and work are presented here
Workshops already in 2007 with Nordel and UCTE Two workshops and several meetings with ETSO in 2008
A list of current practices’ drawbacks and possible improvements has been established
Identified necessary actions Agree on objectives Complete the list of possible improvements Identify barriers to implementation – cost/benefit analysis Identify possible common actions and establish an action plan
4 Electricity Security of Supply
Objectives for further SAF Development
… to provide market participants with information on demand, generation and grid developments and enhance thus market opportunities
… to highlight the possibility of synergies between countries
… to provide authorities an assessment of system adequacy
Timeframes: 3-5/10 years, seasonal (summer/winter), annual
Perimeter: applicable for the whole EU, but possibly starting with some geographical areas (regions) if that is more feasible
Comply with the existing (Dir. 2003/54/EC, 2005/89/EC) and anticipated new (Third Package) legal framework
5 Electricity Security of Supply
Key Necessary Improvements Identified
Harmonization of data & information that must be made available to each TSO, in order to get the knowledge of system status and prospects
Enhanced methodology and system modelling
Scenarios and probabilistic approach
6 Electricity Security of Supply
Key Necessary Improvements Identified (details)
ETSO to identify the differences between present forecasting and the approach which is anticipated to emerge from the 3rd Legislative Package.
Different timescales, seasonal statements, accuracy of data
Test and ensure compatibility of data & information acquisition methods used in MS
Interregional issues to be addressed
Consider increased reliance on interconnections
7 Electricity Security of Supply
Key Necessary Improvements Identified (details) (cont’d)
Consider scenarios and be transparent on data / assumptions behind them
Take into account the effect of environmental impact assessment in the new projects
Consider impact of renewables
Consider socio-economic impacts in scenarios
Use a bottom-up approach with increased cooperation between TSOs
Start a debate, meetings and consultation of stakeholders, with an expectation to produce the 1st report in June 2010
8 Electricity Security of Supply
The Future Framework to fit in:3rd Legislative Package Requirements
Art. 12g of the “new” Electricity Directive (10-year MSs plan)1. TSO NRA 10-year plan, annually, measures for adequacy & security2. Indication of transmission projects, list of investments, timeframe3. Generation, supply, consumption, exchanges assumptions other EU-networks4. Regulators: to consult all network users 5. Regulators: check consistency with EU 10-year plan6. Regulators: monitor and evaluate implementation7. Regulators’ obligation for measures (8.) if TSO does not execute investment8. Measures …
Art. 2c.1.b of the “new” Electricity Regulation (10-year EU plan)b) 10-year plan, including a generation adequacy outlook, every two yearse) Annual summer / winter generation adequacy outlook
Art. 2c.1.c of the “new” Electricity RegulationGeneration adequacy outlook: current and projected adequacy, 5y & 5-15y
10 Year Network Development Statement
Draft
Florence Forum
Draft 13 November 2008
10
Objectives of the Report• Previously long-term system adequacy assessment focused on
generation adequacy
• The EU economy needs a comprehensive picture of power system development as a whole
• Consequently the 3rd Package requires a 10-Year Statement to cover the following aspects
• load development• scenarios of generation development and generation additions • important transmission extensions of European interest
• The report can provide an expert assessment of:• future power system development• transmission and generation adequacy • impact of transmission extensions for interconnections between
regions/countries• impact of internal reinforcements affecting transmission capacity
11
Approach to Dealing with Uncertainties
• Future electricity market development is uncertain:• Actions of EU/national legislators
• Regulatory environment
• Actions of market participants
• External factors (e.g. global economic climate)
Different scenarios will be used to deal with these uncertainties
• The scenarios themselves contain significant variables:• Amount, location, timescales of generation projects
• Differing timescales to complete generation/transmission projects
Grid development must be robust, yet flexible
12
Scenarios• The report will focus on at least the following scenarios:
- Scenario “Best Estimate”:- Considers additional new generation considered certain or likely- Load development “business as usual”
- Scenario “EU 2020”:- Considers the targets for renewables set by the EU- 20 % renewable, +20 % energy efficiency, 20 % CO2-reduction- Load development will include efficiency gains
• The report will provide scenarios with an expert assessment based on the information available to TSOs
• Investors have to make their decisions based on their own analysis of market development
13
Overview “End Product”• The Ten Year Network Development Statement will be a
considerable step beyond existing System Adequacy reporting
• It will be easy to comprehend – especially for people who are not grid experts
• The assumptions, developments, deductions and results will be easy to follow
• The report will give an overview of the situation in Europe
• “In depth” approach for countries and regions where more detailed information is required
14
Example: Overview System Adequacy
Dependent upon imports over the whole summer under normal conditions
Some imports may be required under normal conditions
No specific issues identified under severe conditions
Imports will be required under severe conditions
Potential requirement for imports under certain conditions
HU
BPL
DE
CH
NL
EPT
SLOCro
Ser
FYROMAL
BG
ROM
GB
IRL
LT
EST
LV
N
SE
GR
BA
SK
A
FIN
CY
DK
F
I
CZ
Mon
CY
Example
15
Example: Network Extensions
Excerpt from UCTE Transmission Plan 2008
Example
16
Cooperation ETSO-CEER• How can the regulators help to ensure the quality of the
report?
• TSOs should be in the position to get high quality data from market participants
• In some countries the regulators already started consultation processes with market participants to develop a view of the future load and generation scenarios. The results should be made available to the TSOs.
• Clarifying likely policy developments within energy ministries of Member States will be an important issue
• Data quality for a long term prognosis depends on two factors
• Today's best available input data• Taking as many views into consideration while developing scenarios to
ensure a broad view on the future development
17
Conclusions and Next Steps• The 10-Year Network Development Statement is a very ambitious
project – a significant step beyond current System Adequacy reporting
• The statement will be based on different supply and demand scenarios and planned transmission grid extensions
• Regulators can play an important role:
• ensuring availability of high quality input data
• giving input on scenario development via consultation with stakeholders.
• CEER and ETSO will continue their information exchange and identify the next steps to ensure high data quality
• ENTSO-E will publish a first report in 2010 with a working draft in 2009
18 Electricity Security of Supply
Outlook
To clarify, involving the EC Impact of and relation to the 3rd Legislative Package Expectations at the EU level vs. regional focus
To clarify and define involving stakeholders Goal / information to be available for the stakeholders Role of regulators in the process Role of other stakeholders (e.g. generators) in the process
Action plan Resolve outstanding issues and start work on definition and implementation of
enhanced pan-EU SAF by Q1/2009 Adjust methodology and produce the first “real” SAF according to the new
methodology by 06/2010