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Sls5lpt p Electric Vehicles as Grid Storage: a fine-grained simulation for feasibility analysis of V2G Mark Apperley University of Waikato Aotearoa New Zealand ENERGY 2013 Lisboa O v e r v i e w : V2G concept, motivation and issues New Zealand scenario Rationale and simulation design Vehicle fleet and behaviour Simulation results Implications ENERGY 2013 Lisboa 2

Electric Vehicles as Grid Storage - IARIA · Sls5lpt p Electric Vehicles as Grid Storage: a fine-grained simulation for feasibility analysis of V2G Mark Apperley University of Waikato

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Page 1: Electric Vehicles as Grid Storage - IARIA · Sls5lpt p Electric Vehicles as Grid Storage: a fine-grained simulation for feasibility analysis of V2G Mark Apperley University of Waikato

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Electric Vehicles as Grid Storage:

a fine-grained simulation for feasibility analysis of V2G

Mark Apperley University of Waikato

Aotearoa New Zealand

ENERGY 2013 Lisboa

Overview:

•  V2G concept, motivation and issues

•  New Zealand scenario

•  Rationale and simulation design

•  Vehicle fleet and behaviour

•  Simulation results

•  Implications

ENERGY 2013 Lisboa 2

Page 2: Electric Vehicles as Grid Storage - IARIA · Sls5lpt p Electric Vehicles as Grid Storage: a fine-grained simulation for feasibility analysis of V2G Mark Apperley University of Waikato

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Vehicle to Grid (V2G) concept

ENERGY 2013 Lisboa 3

•  1997 Kempton & Letendre reported detailed energy and economic analysis

•  When connected to grid, EVs can be treated as both load and source

Vehicle to Grid (V2G) concept

ENERGY 2013 Lisboa 4

•  1997 Kempton & Letendre reported detailed energy and economic analysis

•  When connected to grid, EVs can be treated as both load and source

•  Need to be “plugged-in” whenever not in use

•  Need to know about immediate future requirements

Page 3: Electric Vehicles as Grid Storage - IARIA · Sls5lpt p Electric Vehicles as Grid Storage: a fine-grained simulation for feasibility analysis of V2G Mark Apperley University of Waikato

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V2G motivation (1)

ENERGY 2013 Lisboa 5

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V2G motivation (1)

ENERGY 2013 Lisboa 6

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Page 4: Electric Vehicles as Grid Storage - IARIA · Sls5lpt p Electric Vehicles as Grid Storage: a fine-grained simulation for feasibility analysis of V2G Mark Apperley University of Waikato

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V2G motivation (1)

ENERGY 2013 Lisboa 7

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V2G motivation (2)

ENERGY 2013 Lisboa 8

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4� � � � � � / � 3�i 0/ �v� 0/ 230 � � b�

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Page 5: Electric Vehicles as Grid Storage - IARIA · Sls5lpt p Electric Vehicles as Grid Storage: a fine-grained simulation for feasibility analysis of V2G Mark Apperley University of Waikato

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V2G motivation (3)

ENERGY 2013 Lisboa 9

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V2G motivation (3)

ENERGY 2013 Lisboa 10

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  � 03w� � � 3� r / �� 309 �   203� � � �

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Page 6: Electric Vehicles as Grid Storage - IARIA · Sls5lpt p Electric Vehicles as Grid Storage: a fine-grained simulation for feasibility analysis of V2G Mark Apperley University of Waikato

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V2G motivation (3)

ENERGY 2013 Lisboa 11

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V2G motivation (4)

ENERGY 2013 Lisboa 12

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Page 7: Electric Vehicles as Grid Storage - IARIA · Sls5lpt p Electric Vehicles as Grid Storage: a fine-grained simulation for feasibility analysis of V2G Mark Apperley University of Waikato

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V2G motivation (4)

ENERGY 2013 Lisboa 13

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V2G motivation (4)

ENERGY 2013 Lisboa 14

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Page 8: Electric Vehicles as Grid Storage - IARIA · Sls5lpt p Electric Vehicles as Grid Storage: a fine-grained simulation for feasibility analysis of V2G Mark Apperley University of Waikato

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V2G motivation (5)

ENERGY 2013 Lisboa 15

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V2G issues and questions:

ENERGY 2013 Lisboa 16

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v� / b� 0/e� / � � / � � �

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Page 9: Electric Vehicles as Grid Storage - IARIA · Sls5lpt p Electric Vehicles as Grid Storage: a fine-grained simulation for feasibility analysis of V2G Mark Apperley University of Waikato

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1.  Can overall energy balance be maintained in real-time minimising peak generation requirements?

ENERGY 2013 Lisboa 17

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2.  Is the uptake of electric vehicles likely to be sufficient to ensure V2G’s viability?

ENERGY 2013 Lisboa 18

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v� / b� 0/e� / � � / � � �

� � � � 42�� � �

Page 10: Electric Vehicles as Grid Storage - IARIA · Sls5lpt p Electric Vehicles as Grid Storage: a fine-grained simulation for feasibility analysis of V2G Mark Apperley University of Waikato

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) � � 0   2�

3.  Vehicle charging and control protocols and smart-grid integration are critical to the success of V2G

ENERGY 2013 Lisboa 19

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v� / b� 0/e� / � � / � � �

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v� / b� 0/e� / � � / � � �

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) � � 0   2�

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) � � 0   2�

4.  Where vehicles are charged and the charging technology are detail issues, but highly relevant

ENERGY 2013 Lisboa 20

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ENERGY 2013 Lisboa

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� 3� � �

v� / b� 0/e� / � � / � � �v� / b� 0/e� / � � / � � �

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� � � 3� � �   2�i 0/   �) � 2� � � / 0 0� 1�

Page 11: Electric Vehicles as Grid Storage - IARIA · Sls5lpt p Electric Vehicles as Grid Storage: a fine-grained simulation for feasibility analysis of V2G Mark Apperley University of Waikato

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) � � 0   2�

� 3   0/ � �v� / b� 0/e� / � � / � � �

) � � 0   2�

5.  At-home connection has significant implications for distribution networks and bi-directional flows

ENERGY 2013 Lisboa 21

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v� / b� 0/e� / � � / � � �

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� 3   0/ � �v� / b� 0/e� / � � / � � �v� / b� 0/e� / � � / � � �

� 3� � �2040 0� 1�

43020� 0   �

� 3� � �

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) � � 0   2�

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) � � 0   2�

6.  Advances in EV technology will influence uptake, but also charging protocols, technology and usage patterns

ENERGY 2013 Lisboa 22

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v� / b� 0/e� / � � / � � �v� / b� 0/e� / � � / � � �

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� 3� � �2040 0� 1�

43020� 0   �

� 3� � � � � � 3� � �   2�i 0/   �

� � �� � � � / 0 0� 1�

Page 12: Electric Vehicles as Grid Storage - IARIA · Sls5lpt p Electric Vehicles as Grid Storage: a fine-grained simulation for feasibility analysis of V2G Mark Apperley University of Waikato

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) � � 0   2�

� 3   0/ � �v� / b� 0/e� / � � / � � �

) � � 0   2�

ENERGY 2013 Lisboa 23

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v� / b� 0/e� / � � / � � �v� / b� 0/e� / � � / � � �

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43020� 0   �

� 3� � �

� � �� � � � / 0 0� 1�

� � i 0/ � �   23� 2� � � �   �� � e� 049 � / 2�

7.  Strategies on climate change, fossil fuel dependency/availability drive the need for renewable development

ENERGY 2013 Lisboa 24

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43020� 0   �� � �

� � � � / 0 0� 1�

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� � i 0/ � �   23� 2� � � �   �� � e� 049 � / 2�

8.  V2G requires connection when not in use, prediction of future use, and increased charge cycles…

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) � � 0   2�

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43020� 0   �43020� 0   �

v� / b� 0/e� / � � / � � �

� � � � 42�� � �� � � � 42�� � �

v� / b� 0/e� / � � / � � �

Page 13: Electric Vehicles as Grid Storage - IARIA · Sls5lpt p Electric Vehicles as Grid Storage: a fine-grained simulation for feasibility analysis of V2G Mark Apperley University of Waikato

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ENERGY 2013 Lisboa 25

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� 3� � �2040 0� 1�

43020� 0   �� � �

� � � � / 0 0� 1�

� � i 0/ � �   23� 2� � � �   �� � e� 049 � / 2�

9.  V2G disruptive technology, appropriate business models need careful shaping

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) � � 0   2�

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43020� 0   �43020� 0   �

v� / b� 0/e� / � � / � � �

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v� / b� 0/e� / � � / � � �

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What is already known about V2G?

•  Renewable integration potential demonstrated

•  System issues eg distribution network topology, frequency stability

•  Economic, social and business models

•  Connection management techniques and protocols

•  Small scale trials

•  Large scale trials proposed

ENERGY 2013 Lisboa 26

Page 14: Electric Vehicles as Grid Storage - IARIA · Sls5lpt p Electric Vehicles as Grid Storage: a fine-grained simulation for feasibility analysis of V2G Mark Apperley University of Waikato

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What is already known about V2G?

•  Modelling tends to have been aggregate, short time period, or coarse time scale:

ENERGY 2013 Lisboa 27

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NZ model : focus is energy balance

ENERGY 2013 Lisboa 28

•  Can V2G deliver improved renewable integration in the New Zealand environment?

•  What are the implications: o  for the electricity system as a whole o  for vehicle owners

o  for achieving energy strategy goals

•  Fine grained & detailed simulation o  individual components o  short clock tick, full year duration

•  Real data for wind and demand, up to 1M individual vehicles based on statistical model

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Focus on energy balance

ENERGY 2013 Lisboa 29

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New Zealand electricity scenario

ENERGY 2013 Lisboa 30 ENERGY 2013 Lisboa 3

•  9.4 GW capacity

•  43 TWh/year generation (~50% capacity)

•  74% renewables

  hydro (56%)

  geothermal (13%)

 wind (4%)

•  40% wind farm capacity factor

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New Zealand energy strategy

•  Target 90% renewable electricity by 2025

•  For wind alone, this needs 400% increase in contribution

•  Current 4% wind contribution only 1/3 of capacity of installed turbines

•  Other drivers for growth of renewables:   increasing demands for electricity   reducing dependency on fossil fuels   greenhouse gas to 80% of 1990 levels by 2020   encouraging alternative transport fuels and EVs

ENERGY 2013 Lisboa 31

Renewable integration issues for NZ

•  High proportion of existing renewable energy

•  Relatively small and stand-alone grid

•  Simple government and regulatory environment

•  Record as test-bed for nation-wide systems (eg banking)

ENERGY 2013 Lisboa 32

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Simulation overview

ENERGY 2013 Lisboa 33

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Simulation overview

ENERGY 2013 Lisboa 34

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Peak generation varied to match load and shortfall in wind and base generation

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Simulation overview

ENERGY 2013 Lisboa 35

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Ideal is to be able to remove need for peak generation

Bulk load

•  Have real zone-load data from the transmission network operator

•  Covers entire grid

•  5 minute intervals over a whole year

ENERGY 2013 Lisboa 36

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Base generation

•  Calculated as a fraction of average demand (including EVs) with 3 month sliding window

•  Fraction determined by % wind penetration

•  In reality a mix of generation types – hydro, geothermal, etc

•  Does not attempt to follow load, just seasonal variation

ENERGY 2013 Lisboa 37

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ENERGY 2013 Lisboa 37

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Peak generation

•  Fills shortfall between other generation and load

•  Generators must be highly responsive

•  Need for peak generation shows inefficiency

•  In this simulation, the required peak generation at any instant is output data rather than input data

ENERGY 2013 Lisboa 38

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Generators must be highly responsive

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Wind generation

•  Dataset of wind speed at 10 minute intervals for current and planned wind farm sites over several years

•  All 17 sites aggregated to form one large wind farm, and single wind energy value at each time interval

ENERGY 2013 Lisboa 39

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New Zealand vehicle use

•  4.4M population

•  2.6M light passenger vehicles

•  These are 78% of all road vehicles, and are basis for simulation

•  Average vehicle use 3.3% over year

•  Average distance per day 28Km over 3 journeys

ENERGY 2013 Lisboa 40

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New Zealand EV potential

•  Typical present-day EV:

 Range ~150–160 km

  16–24 kWh battery

•  Assume 1M EVs (40% of fleet)

  50 kWh battery

  only 3.3% in use at any time

48 GWh of storage

  could supply peak load for 3 hours

ENERGY 2013 Lisboa 41

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New Zealand EV uptake

•  NZ has aging car fleet

  average age 12.5 years

  terminal distance 195,000km

•  Current retirement/replacement rate would take 17 years to renew entire fleet

•  Current uptake of EVs is low (no incentives)

•  Estimates suggest 1M EVs by 2040 is realistic (even without incentives)

ENERGY 2013 Lisboa 42

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Electric vehicle simulation model

•  Two parts to the vehicle model used in the simulation:   electrical model – determines charge/discharge

decisions when vehicle connected to the grid

  behaviour model – controls timing and energy use of journeys

ENERGY 2013 Lisboa 43

Electrical model

•  Basic physical parameters can be set separately for each vehicle.

•  When connected to grid, each EV makes own decision about charging, discharging or remaining idle (decentralised smart charging)

•  Naïve protocols might charge at maximum rate until full, or at minimum rate to meet the requirements of the next trip

ENERGY 2013 Lisboa 44

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Electrical model (2)

•  We use a cooperative four-state model controlled by three boolean parameters:   F – vehicle fully charged  N – grid in deficit

 P – vehicle able to supply grid

•  P determined by state of charge, time to next trip, and required charge for next trip

ENERGY 2013 Lisboa 45

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required charge for next trip

� �� � a� � � �� �   � � � 3� � �

F – vehicle fully charged

� � � �

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) � � � � �

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Cooperative charging model

•  Charge/discharge as required to balance grid, until charging imperative to reach required charge for next journey.

ENERGY 2013 Lisboa 46 ENERGY 2013 Lisboa

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Vehicle behaviour

ENERGY 2013 Lisboa 47 ENERGY 2013 Lisboa

•  Each journey specified by a departure time, distance, and average speed

•  Journeys derived from this survey data

Simulation in operation

At each tick (5 minutes) these steps occur:   update vehicle connections (departures and

arrivals)

  derive new input values – load, wind, base

  update charge/discharge state for each EV (based on appropriate charging protocol)

  calculate network balance (peak required or wastage)

  record all relevant data for this cycle

ENERGY 2013 Lisboa 48

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Energy balance vs fleet size

ENERGY 2013 Lisboa 49 ENERGY 2013 Lisboa

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Energy balance review (1)

ENERGY 2013 Lisboa 50

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y� 5hf � � �

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%� � � � � � a � � �� � � � � �   � �

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Energy balance review (2)

ENERGY 2013 Lisboa 51

� /   2� / 2�/ � 0g   � � � 9 �/ � �r � 2� 0g2� � �   �

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Energy balance vs wind penetration

ENERGY 2013 Lisboa 52

e � � � � �e � � � � �

ENERGY 2013 Lisboa 52

e � � � � �

� � / � � � / � 23�i 0/ �� � / � � � / � 23�i 0/ �a � � � � � � � � � � h � � �

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Peak (& spillage) “load” duration

ENERGY 2013 Lisboa 53 ENERGY 2013 Lisboa

f s s s � � 3   � vf 68 � 0� � i 9 � b� 2� � 2� � 0y04� 43020� 0 �3� 1g� 3�   � � 9 0   2� / 0� 4� �� � �/ � � � �   � / 0�   4� �� � �

Demand smoothing ?

ENERGY 2013 Lisboa 54 ENERGY 2013 Lisboa

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Failed EV journeys

ENERGY 2013 Lisboa 55 ENERGY 2013 Lisboa

a � � � �

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s hsssc8 � � �� g3� �

Issues and implications

•  V2G can improve renewable integration, but avoidance of back-up investment not established

•  Use of back-up significantly reduced suggesting new alternatives

•  Spillage significantly reduced suggesting improved efficiency and capacity factors

•  Wind penetration of 30% to 50% definitely achievable

•  Many advantages with EV uptake at only 12-15%

•  Failed journeys could be an issue; better estimates of immediate future use needed

ENERGY 2013 Lisboa 56

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Future work

•  Improving estimates of immediate future needs •  More detailed analysis of charge station

requirements

•  Adding network topology to simulation •  Exploring non-homogenous vehicle mix, including

PHEVs

•  Charge cycles and battery life implications •  Economic and business models, and “fit” with

electricity supply industry

•  Individual and society issues

ENERGY 2013 Lisboa 57

ENERGY 2013 Lisboa 58

Mark Apperley University of Waikato

Aotearoa New Zealand New Zealand

[email protected]

more information on this work at: http://idslm.cms.waikato.ac.nz/