Electric System Reliability in a Post SONGS World

Topics for Today• What is “The Grid?”• Things that affect reliability• Renewables and reliability• The Need for dispatchable Local Generation

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Preliminary Points• Generation output must match demand• We operate at 60 Cycles PS. If demand causes a

drop to 59.6, we drop load. • Impacts to any part of the system will affect our

ability to deliver power• Some impacts can be anticipated, others can be

hard to predict• Time for recovery following an event depends on

the nature of the impact• Time of year/weather will play a part on what we

do for recovery since demand varies

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Generation• Hydro Generation• Old Steam Generation• Combined Cycle• Single Cycle Gas Turbines• Renewable• Small Hydro• Wind • Geothermal or biomass• Solar

Large Hydro: Not Considered renewable

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Small Hydro Generation• RPS Standard Generally less than 30 MW• Many of these are run of the river: No reservoir

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Natural Gas Fired Generation• Combined Cycle• Start with a gas turbine (think big jet engine) This spins one

generator• Exhaust gases (which are real hot) are used to heat water into

steam which in turn spins more generators• Not well suited for peaker power

• Peakers• Single Cycle Gas Turbine• Spins a generator

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Renewable• Wind• Wind must be within a certain range of velocity• Peak Wind Generation in SCE territory is midnight to

6:00 a.m.• Solar• Only works in sunlight• Requires large land area

• Project 500 MW on 4500 acres

• Geothermal• Small Hydro• Storage technology is needed to deal with the variable nature

of renewable generation

Transmission• Transmitting large amounts of power over long distances• Different voltages• 500 KV• 230KV• 66KV

• Some older systems• 115KV• 33KV

Substations• Grid Control• Outages• Reduce voltages from transmission levels down to distribution

levels• Components:• Switch Yard• Transformers• Reactors or condensers• Capacitors

Distribution• Delivers power to customers• 12 KV• Original system design was for the power to flow in one

direction

Why can’t we just have generation in the desert?• Loss of transmission will result in blackouts• Transmission lines are only capable of carrying a

certain amount of power• Regulatory Restrictions• Physical Limitations

• There must be balance in the system with a certain amount of generation in the load center

Impacts to Reliability• Impacts to Transmission• Fires • Floods• Wind

• Impacts at Substations• Catastrophic Failures

• Transformers• Collateral Damage• Long Term Reconstruction• Environmental damage

• Capacitors• Potential PCB issue

• Distribution• Wind and Fire

Oh Boy

Renewables can create problems in reliability• Small Hydro=run of the river…not reliable

when the streams are down• Geothermal: Not enough• Solar: Intermittent•Wind: Intermittent

What is a mother, or SCE, to do?SONGS is out. This can’t be fixed

When does 2200=500

• SONGS was about 2200 MW of generation Capacity• It was baseload generation which means it ran at

near 100% capacity factor• But…for the near term, SCE is looking at a need

for around 500 MWs of gas fired generation in Los Angeles area. This is a contingency back up to…• Preferred resources of Energy Efficiency, DR,

Storage

Factors that resulted in the drop

• Energy efficiency programs• Demand response• Transmission upgrades• There has been a substantial increase in renewable generation

which is, to a certain extent, offsetting the need for fossil generation. But remember there are problems created by renewables

• This only a near term forecast; long term we will need greater capacity

• California Independent System Operator is looking at at a possible need for over 3000 MWs

• So what?

There is still a need for new gas fired generation• This generation is dispatchable• It can fill in the “gaps” created by renewable generation• Also needed for voltage support• But we need some reform of the NSR Requirements• In the South Coast Air Basin we are in attainment for PM10• Offsets are still required by SCAQMD Regulations• Cannot change that unless there is a change to SB 288• This will require a programmatic approach that is achievable:

attractive to the environmental groups• There are no easy solutions but it will require thoughtful ideas