Election 44Your Summa Guide to Results and What it Means for You

"What does $600 million get you? An almost identical parliament to 2019. Canada has its 5th minority parliament of the 21st century. The major party leaders might not like it, but things appear to be status quo.

With this minority as with others, political drama is more frequent than less. Does the Prime Minister serve out his term? Does Erin O'Toole survive the inevitable leadership challenges? How much deal making will the NDP and the Bloc be doing with the Liberals? Parliament will likely return after Thanksgiving and the future will be clear as mud, though the mudslinging will also return.

A Message From Our Chairman

While the Prime Minister does have a strong hand in this minority, he is still going to have to work with others. Like any leader in office for over half a decade, his political capital is not what it once was. Let a new set of games in this doppelganger parliament begin."

Tim PowersChairman

Results

Results

Liberals

Conservatives

Bloc Québécois

NDP

Greens

159

119

33

25

2

* Final party seat counts likely to change due to counting of mail-in ballots, and based on any recounts.

* The Liberal seat count includes Kevin Vuong of Spadina—Fort York, who will sit as an Independent. .

Regional Results

Liberals outperformed in the Prairies, flipping at least 1 seat in Alberta. They also gained 4 seats in British Columbia.

Conservatives did well in Atlantic Canada , picking up 2 seats for a total of 7 in the region.

Québec split most of its seats between the Liberals (33) and the Bloc (34).

* Final party seat counts likely to change due to counting of mail-in ballots, and based on any recounts.

0

1

0

0

179 37 5 —

Regional Results

Ontario

Québec

British Columbia

The Prairies

Atlantic Canada

34 10 1 33

15 13 13 —

6 51 5 —

24 7 0 —

0

0

0

0

0

LIB CON NDP BQ GRN OTHER

* Final party seat counts likely to change due to counting of mail-in ballots, and based on any recounts.

How We Got HereThe Dynamics that Led to E-Day

How We Got Here

vid to include as a text slide?

Key Indicator: Desire for Change

Top Issues for Voters

Understanding the ResultsWhat Does the Next Parliament Hold?

The Liberals pulled off a minority government, leading or elected in 158 seats — just 12 shy of a majority.

Despite gaining at least one seat in Alberta and picking up several in Greater Vancouver, they lost some valuable ground in the traditional Liberal stronghold of Atlantic Canada in addition to surrendering a handful of seats in Ontario.

Most of Trudeau’s cabinet was re-elected, with the exception of Women and Gender Equality Minister Maryam Monsef, Seniors Minister Deb Schulte, and Fisheries Minister Bernadette Jordan — three women on a gender-parity team.

Now, without the threat of a snap election at his disposal, the Prime Minister may have a harder time compelling opposition parties to support his policy agenda.

Will that challenge translate into questions about Trudeau’s fitness to continue leading the Liberals? That will largely depend on how much he manages to accomplish, and whether he can stay scandal-free, in the next 18-24 months.

Top Promises➔ Create 1.4 Million Jobs

➔ $10 a Day Childcare for Families

➔ Cut Emissions by 40-45% by 2030

➔ $1 Billion to Help Provinces Pay for Vaccine Passports

➔ Mandatory vaccines for the public service and some federally regulated sectors

While the Conservatives again won the popular vote, they failed to secure a plurality of seats in the House of Commons. This means Erin O’Toole will continue to serve as the Leader of the Official Opposition. However, he must now convince his caucus and party faithful that he should stay on as leader and receive another shot at pursuing his vision for growth.

Conservatives made some inroads in Atlantic Canada and Ontario, but those seats in the Greater Toronto Area that the Tories needed to win in order to form a minority government stayed Liberal.

Conservatives have lots to chew on in the days ahead, but O’Toole has every intention on keeping the top job, and believes that Monday’s results position the Tories for growth next time around. A rookie run isn’t always telling. Just look at Stephen Harper, who also failed to break through in his first go as leader.

Jagmeet Singh’s NDP is leading or elected in 25 seats, up only one from the 24 the NDP held at dissolution. Given the NDP’s high hopes in key regions - Toronto, the Prairies and the B.C. lower mainland, Singh will be frustrated if mail-in ballots don’t give him a couple more target seats (ex. Davenport, ON; Vancouver Granville, BC). While the NDP gained a seat, it appears the Liberal strategic voting appeal worked, again.

With the Liberals set to navigate another minority parliament, the NDP maintains an important role in the House of Commons as one of two smaller parties holding the balance of power. In his election night speech, Singh promised to continue to fight for the progressive priorities that the NDP focused on during the pandemic and campaign.

While the NDP’s gains fell short of expectations, the mood among New Democrats suggests a satisfaction with the growth of Jagmeet Singh as a leader, optimism for the direction he is taking the party, and hope for the future they are building towards. He will still have work to do to unify his caucus and convince the party grassroots that the future of the NDP under his leadership remains bright.

The Bloc Québécois held their own in La Belle Province, where they are leading or elected in 34 seats — up from 32.

By building on its success in the 2019 election, the Bloc showed the rest of the country that their message still resonates in many parts of the province: When it comes to protecting its interests in Ottawa, Québec can only trust itself.

But in a province that has a well-earned reputation for wild swings between elections, the Bloc will now be under pressure to take full advantage of its third-party status and show voters that their support will be rewarded with actual results for Québec.

Despite winning their first ever seat in Ontario (Kitchener Centre), the Greens had a disappointing night overall.

Annamie Paul, who took over the party helm one year ago and whose leadership has been plagued by internal turmoil, lost her own race in Toronto Centre, coming in a distant fourth behind the incumbent Liberal.

Having failed to help the Greens increase their representation in Ottawa, Paul’s political future is very much in jeopardy. One thing that was clear on election night? No matter who leads the Green Party going forward, former leader Elizabeth May intends to remain at the centre of the conversation.

What’s Next?Process and Politics in the Days Ahead

The 44th Parliament: A Timeline Forming Government

Governor General Mary Simon will formally ask Justin Trudeau to form government following the election results. Trudeau will need to work with at least one opposition party in Parliament to maintain the confidence of the House of Commons. This can be done via a formal accord, a coalition, or on a case-by-case basis - as was done in the last parliament.

Cabinet

Trudeau will shuffle his cabinet before his re-elected government tests the confidence of the House of Commons. The Government House Leader will again be a very important power broker in the upcoming minority parliament.

Mandate Letters: Justin Trudeau will issue mandates letters after the new cabinet appointments to instruct his roster of ministers on their priorities for the new mandate. Whether or not these will be released publicly as they have in the past - and when - is not yet known.

The 44th Parliament: A Timeline Summoning Parliament

Parliament was summoned to meet on October 18th, 2021, by a proclamation issued by the Governor General on the advice of the Prime Minister. The return date could be amended by a second proclamation.

The first item on the agenda for a new parliament is to elect a speaker. Incumbent Speaker Anthony Rota was re-elected in Nipissing—Timiskaming. If he wants to keep the job, Rota will need opposition support in the secret ballot to return to the Speaker’s Chair.

Speech from the Throne

The new session of Parliament will be formally opened by a Speech from the Throne, which sets the agenda for the government’s mandate. A motion to consider the Throne Speech is the first confidence test in the House for a new government, so substance and tone will matter. If the Speech fails to earn the confidence of the House (extremely unlikely) then O’Toole’s Conservatives could get a shot at forming government, or we could see another election. This Speech will pass in the House, given the lack of appetite for another election.

The 44th Parliament: A Timeline Back to Business

After the dust settles and all post-election formalities are complete, Parliament returns to regular business. That includes committee work, which usually begins within a couple months. The procedure and house affairs committee will meet first to determine the membership of all other committees. After the October 21st, 2019, election, the committee first met on January 30th, 2020 -- more than three months after E-Day.

The finance committee is usually one of the first to buckle down, since its usual roles include holding pre-budget consultations in advance of the spring budget.

Fall Economic Statement

The fall economic statement gives the new government a chance to flesh out its policy priorities in a detailed document that looks a lot like a short federal budget. The 2019 Economic and Fiscal Update was tabled on December 16th, 2019, so it’s likely the government will table a financial update before the new year.

Strategic Considerations➔ The Bloc Québecois and NDP will continue to hold the balance of power in

Parliament. How the Liberals cooperate with them, and perhaps even the Conservatives, will be critical to how they can implement their agenda, including shared priorities.

➔ Advocacy priorities will need to be mindful of regional realities, like the need to get Québec and the West on board for certain agenda items.

➔ All of the main party leaders are likely to face internal scrutiny over their leadership given the outcome of Monday’s vote. That will evolve over the coming days and weeks as election port-mortems occur.

Shared Priorities ➔ The immediate concern remains managing the COVID-19 crisis and

recovery. Vaccine passports and mandates are likely to be an early priority for the new government.

➔ The Liberals will also look to seal the deal with remaining provinces on their childcare agreements, namely with Ontario, Alberta, and New Brunswick, to show early action on one of their major platform planks.

➔ We should also anticipate more focus on climate change targets and plans heading into the end of this quarter, with major international environmental conferences set to take place before the end of 2021.

We can help.Give us a call or drop us a line.

613.235.1400 | summa@summa.ca

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