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.
Elasticity and Its Application
.
Elasticity – The concept
The responsiveness of one variable to changes in another
When price rises what happens to demand?
Demand falls BUT! How much does demand fall?
.
Elasticity – The concept
If price rises by 10% - what happens to demand?
We know demand will fall By more than 10%? By less than 10%? Elasticity measures the extent to which
demand will change
.
Elasticity . . .
… is a measure of how much buyers and sellers respond to changes in market conditions
… allows us to analyze supply and demand with greater precision.
.
Price Elasticity of Demand
Price elasticity of demand is the percentage change in quantity demanded given a percent change in the price.
It is a measure of how much the quantity demanded of a good responds to a change in the price of that good.
.
Determinants of Price Elasticity of Demand
Necessities versus Luxuries
Availability of Close Substitutes
Definition of the Market
Time Horizon
.
Determinants of Price Elasticity of Demand
Demand tends to be more elastic :
if the good is a luxury. the longer the time period. the larger the number of close
substitutes. the more narrowly defined the market.
.
Computing the Price Elasticity of Demand
The price elasticity of demand is computed as the percentage change in the quantity demanded divided by the percentage change in price.
Price Elasticity of Demand=
Percentage Changein Quantity Demanded
Percentage Changein Price
Price Elasticity of Demand=
Percentage Changein Quantity Demanded
Percentage Changein Price
The Percentage Method
.
Computing the Price Elasticity of Demand
price inchange Percentage
demandedquatity inchange Percentagedemand of elasticityPrice
Example: If the price of an ice cream cone increases from $2.00 to $2.20 and the amount you buy falls from 10 to 8 cones then your elasticity of demand would be calculated as:
2percent10
percent20
100002
002202
10010
810
.)..(
)(
.
Ranges of Elasticity
Inelastic Demand Quantity demanded does not respond strongly to
price changes. Price elasticity of demand is less than one.
Elastic Demand Quantity demanded responds strongly to changes
in price. Price elasticity of demand is greater than one.
.
Ranges of Elasticity
Perfectly InelasticQuantity demanded does not respond to price
changes. Perfectly ElasticQuantity demanded changes infinitely with any
change in price. Unit ElasticQuantity demanded changes by the same
percentage as the price.
.
A Variety of Demand Curves
Because the price elasticity of demand measures how much quantity demanded responds to the price, it is
closely related to the slope of the demand curve.
.
Perfectly Inelastic Demand- Elasticity equals 0
Quantity
Price
4
5
Demand
1002. ...leaves the quantity demanded unchanged.
1. Anincreasein price...
.
Inelastic Demand- Elasticity is less than 1
Quantity
Price
4
51. A 25%increasein price...
100902. ...leads to a 10% decrease in quantity.
.
Unit Elastic Demand- Elasticity equals 1
Quantity
Price
4
51. A 25%increasein price...
100752. ...leads to a 25% decrease in quantity.
.
Elastic Demand- Elasticity is greater than 1
Quantity
Price
4
51. A 25%increasein price...
100502. ...leads to a 50% decrease in quantity.
.
Perfectly Elastic Demand- Elasticity equals infinity
Quantity
Price
Demand4
1. At any priceabove 4, quantitydemanded is zero.
2. At exactly 4,consumers willbuy any quantity.
3. At a price below 4,quantity demanded is infinite.
.
Computing the Price Elasticity of Demand ( Other methods)
Price elasticity of demand can also be calculated by a few other methods. These methods are :
Total Outlay Method Midpoint Formula Geometric Method
.
Total Outlay Method
This method, measures the change on expenditure on commodities due to a change in price.
If a given change does not cause any change in the total amount spent on the commodity, the demand is said to be unitary elastic.
If the total expenditure increases due to fall in price, the demand is said to be elastic and vice versa.
.
Demand is Unitary elastic
Price ( in Rs.) Quantity demanded Total expenditure
4.50 4 18
4.00 4.5 18
3.00 6 18
As price falls, the quantity demanded increases, But the total outlay remains constant. Hence, elasticity of demand is equal to unity.
.
Demand is Elastic
Price ( in Rs.) Quantity demanded Total expenditure
4.50 6 27
4 7 28
3 10 30
As price falls, the quantity demanded increases, And the total outlay also increases. Hence, demand is elastic. ( Greater than unity)
.
Demand is inelastic
Price ( in Rs.) Quantity demanded Total expenditure
4.50 4 18
4 4.25 17
3 5 15
As price falls, the quantity demanded increases, but the total outlay decreases. Hence, demand is inelastic. ( Lesser than unity)
.
Midpoint Formula
The midpoint formula is preferable when calculating the price elasticity of demand because it gives the same answer regardless of the direction of the change.
)/2]P)/[(PP(P)/2]Q)/[(QQ(Q
=Demand of Elasticity Price1212
1212
.
Computing the Price Elasticity of Demand
Example: If the price of an ice cream cone increases from 2.00 to 2.20 and the amount you buy falls from 10 to 8 cones the your elasticity of demand, using the midpoint formula, would be calculated as:
32.25.9
22
2/)00.220.2()00.220.2(
2/)810()810(
percent
percent
)/2]P)/[(PP(P)/2]Q)/[(QQ(Q
=Demand of Elasticity Price1212
1212
.
Geometric method Elasticity at a point on a straight line demand curve
can be calculated as follows :
e = Length of the lower segment--------------------------------------------------
Length of the upper segment
At the midpoint of the demand curve e = 1 At all points above the midpoint e >1 At all points below the midpoint e < 1
.
Geometric Method At the point M,
the demand curve is unit elastic. M is the midpoint of this linear demand curve
Above M, demand is elastic,
Below M, demand is inelastic
Price
Quantity
M
Elasticity = 1
Elasticity > 1
Elasticity < 1
.
Perfectly Inelastic Supply- Elasticity equals 0
Quantity
Price
4
5
Supply
1002. ...leaves the quantity supplied unchanged.
1. Anincreasein price...
.
Inelastic Supply - Elasticity is less than 1
Quantity
Price
4
51. A 25%increasein price...
90 100leads to a 10% increase in Supply
.
Unit Elastic Supply - Elasticity equals 1
Quantity
Price
4
51. A 25%increasein price...
75 100leads to a 25% increase in Supply
.
Elastic Demand- Elasticity is greater than 1
Quantity
Price
1. A 25%increasein price...
50 75
4
5
Leads to a 50% increase in quantity supplied
.
Perfectly Elastic Supply Elasticity equals infinity
Quantity
Price
Supply4
1. At any priceabove 4, quantitysupplied is infinite.
2. At exactly 4,Producers will sell any quantity.
3. At a price below 4,quantity supplied is zero.
.
ElasticityPrice
Quantity Demanded
D
The importance of elasticity is the information it provides on the effect on total revenue of changes in price.
5
100
Total revenue is price x quantity sold. In this example, TR = 5 x 100 = 500.
This value is represented by the shaded rectangle.
Total Revenue
.
ElasticityPrice
Quantity Demanded
D
If the firm decides to decrease price to (say) 3, the degree of price elasticity of the demand curve would determine the extent of the increase in demand and the change therefore in total revenue.
5
100
3
140
Total Revenue
.
Elasticity Price
Quantity Demanded
10
D
5
5
6
% Δ Price = -50%
% Δ Quantity Demanded = +20%
Ped = -0.4 (Inelastic)
Total Revenue would fall
Producer decides to lower price to attract sales
Not a good move!
.
ElasticityPrice (£)
Quantity Demanded
D
10
5 20
Producer decides to reduce price to increase sales
7
% Δ in Price = - 30%
% Δ in Demand = + 300%
Ped = - 10 (Elastic)Total Revenue rises
Good Move!
.
Elasticity
If demand is price elastic:
Increasing price would reduce TR (%Δ Qd > % Δ P)
Reducing price would increase TR (%Δ Qd > % Δ P)
If demand is price inelastic:
Increasing price would increase TR (%Δ Qd < % Δ P)
Reducing price would reduce TR (%Δ Qd < % Δ P)
.
Importance of Elasticity
Relationship between changes in price and total revenue
Importance in determining what goods to tax (tax revenue)
Importance in analysing time lags in production
Influences the behaviour of a firm
.
Importance of Elasticity Concepts
For a Businessman : If a businessman finds that the demand is inelastic, he is free to increase prices. In case if the demand is elastic, by slightly reducing the price, the demand will increase sharply and hence the total revenue will also increase.
The better a company can assess future demand, the better it can plan its resources. Each company is exposed to three types of factors influencing demand: company, competitive and macroeconomic factors.
.
Demand Forecasting
A forecast is a prediction or anticipation of any event which is likely to happen in future.
Demand forecast is the prediction of the future demand for a firm’s product.
It can either be made through experience or by statistical methods.
.
Forecasts are necessary for :
Fulfillment of the objectives. Preparations of budgets. Stabilization of employment and
production. Decisions about expansion of a firm. Other decisions like long term investment
plans, warehousing and inventory decisions.
.
1. A forecast becomes a basis for setting and maintaining a production schedule – manufacturing.
2. It determines the quantity and timing of needs for labor, equipment, tools, parts, and raw materials – purchasing, personnel.
3. It influences the amount of borrowed capital needed to finance the production and the necessary cash flow to operate the business – controller.
4. It provides a basis for sales quota assignments to various segments of the sales force – sales management.
5. It is the overall base that determines the company’s business and marketing plans, which are further broken down into specific goals – marketing offer.
A forecast is important for at least five reasons:
.
Methods of Demand forecasting
There are two different sets of methods for demand forecasting :
Interview & survey methods ( for short term forecasts )
Projection Approach ( for long term forecasts )
.
Interview and Survey approach
To anticipate the demand for a product, information needs to be collected about the expected expenditure patterns of consumers. Depending on the various approaches to collect this information, different sub – methods are formulated.
We will study them one by one.
.
Interview and Survey approach
Executive Opinion : In small companies, usually the owner
takes the responsibility of forecasting. As a result of the experience and
knowledge he is expected to have, he can predict what would be the course of activities in future and plan his own activities accordingly.
.
Interview and Survey approach
Opinion polling method : Information about the consumer’s expenditure can be collected either by the market research department or through the wholesalers and retailers.
As a result of technological advancements, it is now possible to collect this information by the means of internet.
.
Interview and Survey approach
Collective opinion method : Jury is a group of individuals, usually the top
bosses or sales, production, marketing managers having experience in different fields.
The advantage of this method is that instead of basing the forecast on the opinion of one single individual, a more accurate forecast can be drawn.
.
Interview and Survey approach
Sample survey method : The total number of customers of a
company is called as its population. When this number is more, it is not possible to collect information for all the customers. When only a few customers are contacted, it is called as a Sample Survey.
.
User’s Expectations
Consumer and industrial companies often poll their actual or potential customers.Some Industrial manufacturers ask about the quantities of products their customers may purchase in future and take this as their forecast.
.
Delphi Method
Administering a series of questionnaires to panels of experts. This method gathers information from all experts and the opinion of all the experts is shared by all other experts.In case if an expert finds that his own forecast is unrealistic, after going through the opinion of other experts, there is a chance for corrections.
.
Projection Approach
In this method, the past experience is projected for the future. This can be done by tow methods :
Correlation or regression analysis. Time series analysis.
.
Past sales can be used to forecast future demand. Past sales are viewed from the angles of trends, various cycles of business, seasonality and then a forecast is drawn after checking the possibility of the same treads, cycles and seasonality factors.
This method is easy to use, it is based on past behavior and does not include new company, competitor or macroeconomic developments.
Classical approach to time series analysis:
.
Naïve Method
Next Year’s Sales = This Year’s Sales X This Year’s SalesLast Year’s Sales
.
Moving Average
Moving averages are used to allow for marketplace factors changing at different rates and at different times.
.
PERIOD
SALES
VOLUME
SALES FOR
THREE-YEAR PERIOD
THREE-YEAR MOVING
AVERAGE
1 200
2 250
3 300 750
4 350 900 300
5 450 1100 ( 3) = 366.6
6 ?
Period 6 Forecast = 366.6
EXAMPLE OF MOVING-AVERAGE FORECAST
.
Trend Projections – Least Squares
Eyeball fitting is simply a plot of the data with a line drawn through them that the forecaster feels most accurately fits the linear trend of the data.
.
600
500
400
300
200
100
01984
T im e1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990
O bserved Sales F orecast Sales
Sale
s
T rend L ine
A TREND FORECAST OF SALES
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Categories of New ProductsNew-To-The-WorldNew-To-The-World
New Product LinesNew Product Lines
Product Line AdditionsProduct Line Additions
Improvements/RevisionsImprovements/Revisions
Repositioned ProductsRepositioned Products
Lower-Priced ProductsLower-Priced Products
SixCategories
ofNew
Products
SixCategories
ofNew
Products
.
Forecasting of New Products
Evolutionary method : Whenever a new product has been evolved from an existing product ( eg. Colour TV from Black & White TV ), the information of the existing product may be used for prediction of future for the new product.
Substitution method : Many new goods are purchased by customers for replacing the old ones. ( Eg. LCD TV’s in place of Colour TV’s).
.
Forecasting of New Products
Growth pattern methods : To predict the demand for a new product, the growth pattern of an established related goods can be understood.
Opinion polling method : This method advocates the direct questioning to the probable buyers or the influencers of sales of such products. (Eg. demand for drugs can be ascertained by asking the doctors )
.
Forecasting of New Products
Sample survey method : A product is first introduced in a test market ( small city having profiles of customers of metros ). Responses from these markets are taken as a base for forecasts.
Indirect opinion polling : Instead of asking the probable buyers, here, the resellers are consulted.