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Effects-based Coalition Effects-based Coalition OperationsOperations

Maris “Buster” McCrabbKSCO Symposium

23 April 2002

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My talk today consists My talk today consists of…of…

A brief description of the elements that comprise the theory of effects-based operations (EBO)

A brief discussion on the implications of EBO for knowledge systems in a coalition (non-homogeneous) environment

The briefest discussion on framing, beliefs and mechanism (I.e., my paper)

An advertisement for the AFRL/IF EBO ATD research

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Indicators

GlobalSituation

Awareness

CRISIS

AirObjectives

AirTasks T

ASK

LEVEL

ANALYSIS

Now

Air & SpaceControl

ForceSupport

Force Application

ForceEnhancement

EBO in One SlideEBO in One Slide

Bridge 4 Destroyed

Destroy Bridge 4

Disrupt

Delivery of POLEffect (Results)

Tasks (Actions)Destroy Bridge 6

Plan

Indicators

Bridge 6 Destroyed

Physical effects that lead to…

…desired behavioral outcomes.

Objects

Objects

Objects

Objects

Mechanism (Causes)

Mechanism (Causes)

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Effects-Based Effects-Based OperationsOperations

The challenge is predicting & assessing what physical actionsproduce the desired behavioral effects over some period of time

"Effects based operations is a methodology for planning, executing and assessing operations to attain the effects required to achieve desired national security objectives.“ AFDD 1

Actions cause..

AttackMarshalling

Yards

…direct effects and...

..indirect effects

NormandyBattlefieldIsolated

GermanWar Economy

Collapsed

RailMovementDisrupted

MechanismMechanism

Mechanism

(cumulative)

(cascading)

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Operation Allied Operation Allied ForceForceMilosevic accedes to NATO’s conditions

(total Desired Effect)

Air Attacks(Military Effect)

Russian Diplomacy(Diplomatic Effect)

Sanctions, etc.(Economic Effect)

Kosovar Albanian Attacks(Military Effect)

Buildup of NATO Ground Power(Military-Diplomatic Effect)

Solidarity of NATO(Diplomatic Effect)

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Operation Allied Operation Allied Force (2)Force (2)

Milosevic accedes to NATO’s conditions(total Desired Effect)

Air Attacks on Strategic Targets

Air Attacks on Fielded Forces Targets

Air Attacks on National C2 Targets

Air Attacks on Military-Industrial Targets

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Operation Allied Force Operation Allied Force (3)(3)

Milosevic accedes to NATO’s conditions(total Desired Effect)

Degraded National C2

Attacks on Infrastructure(e.g., bridges)

Attacks on Electrical Power(e.g., plants)

Degraded Abilityto C2 FRY Forces

Degraded Abilityto Resupply Forces

Desired MilitaryEffects

PhysicalActions

Degraded IADS

Attack Serbian AF(e.g., aircraft, airbases)

Avoid Serbian SHORAD(e.g., fly above)

Freedom to Attack

Desired PoliticalEffects

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Information domain

Cognitive domain

Physical domain

“ground

truth”

Organization(structure, functions, capacity)

impacts

Observations (indicators), signals, communication

Mental models, decision-making

Thanks to Yuri Levchuk, Aptima, Inc.

The challenge is predicting & assessing what physical actionsproduce the desired behavioral effects over some period of time

Tasks for Knowledge Systems

The “domain” Of KS?

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Semantic NetworkSemantic Network

Thanks to Gil Kuperman, AFRL/HECA

Situation Awareness

Thickly Shared

ThinlyShared

Sha

red

thro

ugh

med

iati

on

All dimensional, multilateral

n-dimensional,bilateral

n-dimensional,bilateral

Belief Structures(Framing)

Models of(Simple) Causality

Actor B

Situation Awareness

Belief Structures(Framing)

Models of(Complex) Causality

Actor A

Situation Awareness

Belief Structures(Framing)

Models of(Complex) Causality

Actor N

(not all shown)

AFRL EBO ATD External AFRL EBO ATD External RelationshipsRelationships

Organization Relationship

AFC2ISRC/ESC

AFRL/HE

AFSAA

Boeing

DARPA

JWAC

JFCOM

NAIC

• Our sponsors• Working technology transition via AT AOC

• Working to incorporate non-conventional EBO (IO) capabilities

• Models for Homeland Defense

• CRDA: EBO & Multi-sensor C2 Aircraft

• Leveraging TS & adversary response work • Provided FY01 funds; FY02 funds planned

• Leveraging their TS models: adversary response work

• Part of Joint EBO team• Catalyst for JFCOM EBO Concepts

• Leveraging their TS models: telecommunications, C2 Process• Plan to provide some FY02 funding

AFRL EBO Related Research AFRL EBO Related Research EffortsEfforts

• Adversarial/Behavioral Modeling– Basic Research Initiatives (6.1)

– Models of Defeat for EBO (UMass)

– Adversary Intent Inference for Predictive Battlespace Awareness (UConn)

• COA Development for Time Critical Targeting– Applied Research Initiative (6.2)

– Effects-based COA development for TCTs

– Software agents for monitoring and alert

• Process Assessment and Metrics for EBO– Phase II SBIR

– Assess current AOC and JTF processes for incorporation of EBO

– Develop MOEs, MOPs, MOMs to measure success of EBO

– Develop prototype Process Assessment Tool to automate metrics use