Effect of Climate Change on WaterEffect of Climate Change on Water

African Utility WeekAfrican Utility Week

International Convention CentreInternational Convention Centre

Cape Town, Cape Town, 1414--17 March 2011 17 March 2011

Dr. Harrison Pienaar Dr. Harrison Pienaar Chief Director: Resource Directed MeasuresChief Director: Resource Directed Measures

Presentation OutlinePresentation Outline

�� Introduction Introduction -- Water Situation and CCWater Situation and CC

�� Key Issues irt. Potential CC ImpactsKey Issues irt. Potential CC Impacts

�� Regional ContextRegional Context

�� Key Challenges facing African Continent Key Challenges facing African Continent

�� South African Context South African Context

�� Water Value Chain and Integrated Approaches Water Value Chain and Integrated Approaches

�� Water for Growth and Development irt. Potential CC Impacts Water for Growth and Development irt. Potential CC Impacts

�� Conceptual Framework for Assessing CC Impacts on Water Conceptual Framework for Assessing CC Impacts on Water

�� Development of a Water Sector Response StrategyDevelopment of a Water Sector Response Strategy

�� Key Messages Key Messages

�� Concluding Remarks Concluding Remarks

IntroductionIntroduction

�� SA is a water scarce country SA is a water scarce country –– 3030thth driest in the worlddriest in the world

�� Potential to exceed economically usable landPotential to exceed economically usable land--based based water resources by 2050water resources by 2050

�� Impacts of climate change considered in WfGD Impacts of climate change considered in WfGD framework and NWRS: framework and NWRS:

�� Uncertainty of CC factored into scenario planning Uncertainty of CC factored into scenario planning

�� Future requirements Future requirements -- major issuemajor issue

�� Adaptation and mitigation measures Adaptation and mitigation measures –– response response strategy strategy

�� Freshwater resources are sensitive to variations in Freshwater resources are sensitive to variations in weather & climateweather & climate

�� Climate change impacts characterised by:Climate change impacts characterised by:

�� Increased variability in rainfall, runIncreased variability in rainfall, run--off and recharge off and recharge (floods & drought) (floods & drought)

�� Decreased water availability & accessibilityDecreased water availability & accessibility

�� Declining water quality and Declining water quality and

�� Desertification Desertification

Key Issues irt. ImpactsKey Issues irt. Impacts

�� Indirect impacts include:Indirect impacts include:

�� Threatened water supplies (reduced rainfall Threatened water supplies (reduced rainfall

& high temperature)& high temperature)

�� Increased pressure on water storage (increased Increased pressure on water storage (increased

rainfall)rainfall)

�� Displacement / loss of vulnerable ecosystems / Displacement / loss of vulnerable ecosystems /

species species

�� Reduced crop yield Reduced crop yield -- compromise food security compromise food security

�� Water Water ANDAND Energy pressing challengesEnergy pressing challenges

�� Indicators of climate change are already Indicators of climate change are already

manifestedmanifested

�� CC will happen in an already stressed continentCC will happen in an already stressed continent

�� CC impacts are expected to be continentCC impacts are expected to be continent--widewide

�� Location, magnitude, quality, duration will varyLocation, magnitude, quality, duration will vary

�� Spots Meriting Intervention Priority: Spots Meriting Intervention Priority:

�� Coastal areasCoastal areas

�� Tropical forestsTropical forests

�� WetlandsWetlands

�� Food insecurity regionsFood insecurity regions

Regional ContextRegional Context

Challenges Facing AfricaChallenges Facing Africa

�� AfricaAfrica’’s water largely driven by climates water largely driven by climate

�� Level of comprehension of CC issues Level of comprehension of CC issues

�� Variability of impacts necessitates variable Variability of impacts necessitates variable

and flexible policies and measuresand flexible policies and measures

�� Institutional challenges (Inter/intra states)Institutional challenges (Inter/intra states)

�� Infrastructural incapability. Infrastructural incapability.

�� Water resources to be in the core of development Water resources to be in the core of development

strategiesstrategies

�� Data (availability, authenticity, sharing) Data (availability, authenticity, sharing)

�� Tackle CC within a basin and at regional frameTackle CC within a basin and at regional frame

�� Integrated approach Integrated approach –– surface and groundwater, surface and groundwater,

basin locality (upper/lower), water/land, etc.basin locality (upper/lower), water/land, etc.

Various continent wide studies (AfDB)Various continent wide studies (AfDB)……

•• A 10% decrease in regions receiving 500 mmA 10% decrease in regions receiving 500 mm

per year would lead to 50% cut in surface per year would lead to 50% cut in surface

drainagedrainage

•• Rainfall and river flows in Africa display highRainfall and river flows in Africa display high

levels of variability with consequences for levels of variability with consequences for

management of water resourcesmanagement of water resources

•• 250 million additional people exposed to 250 million additional people exposed to water stress by 2020water stress by 2020

2002

Water security

Adequate water

Water stress

Chronic scarcity

Absolute scarcity

2025

Source: Pete Ashton

2002

South African ContextSouth African Context

•• The NWA, WSA The NWA, WSA -- good basis through the good basis through the IWRM, NWRS and SFWS for incorporating CC IWRM, NWRS and SFWS for incorporating CC issues in SAissues in SA

•• Some uncertainty in the science but not Some uncertainty in the science but not presenting major stumbling block to defining presenting major stumbling block to defining and implementing policiesand implementing policies

•• General consensus that science is good but the General consensus that science is good but the challenge is to translate the science into useful challenge is to translate the science into useful info. particularly around certain areas of info. particularly around certain areas of impacts: impacts:

�� Spatial or geographic impacts Spatial or geographic impacts

�� How the impacts will manifest How the impacts will manifest

�� Whose likely to be most vulnerable and what needs Whose likely to be most vulnerable and what needs to be doneto be done

National Rainfall and EvaporationNational Rainfall and Evaporation

DDependenciesependencies

Societal Societal

ResponsesResponses

Stress Stress

Hydrological CycleHydrological Cycle

GovernanceGovernancePovertyPoverty

Ecosystems

at risk

Social

Challenges

11

Water Demand / Supply ScenariosWater Demand / Supply Scenarios

•• A quarter (five) of the total 19 water management areas experienA quarter (five) of the total 19 water management areas experience water ce water shortages (present scenario); A further quarter have water surplshortages (present scenario); A further quarter have water surpluses and uses and remainder are in balance. remainder are in balance.

•• Shortages will become more prevalent if proper attention is not Shortages will become more prevalent if proper attention is not given to given to providing more water (scenario 2025).providing more water (scenario 2025).

Water Demand / Supply ScenariosWater Demand / Supply Scenarios

•• If reconciliation strategies are developed and implemented If reconciliation strategies are developed and implemented

•• The countryThe country’’s demand and supply could be in balances demand and supply could be in balance

•• This is what we must all strive forThis is what we must all strive for! !

14

Water Value Chain Requires Integrated Approach Water Value Chain Requires Integrated Approach

Integrated Approach by DWA: Resource BaseIntegrated Approach by DWA: Resource Base

Updated modeling system and decision

support tools

Management Class, Reserve and resource

quality objectives

Develop / agree on classification scenarios and

subsequent management plans

Water availability taking into account ecological water requirements

Biodiversity overlays

Future use projections incl. water for equity, rural and

economic development needs

Pu

blic

Par

tici

pat

ion

Catchment Management Strategy (including ISPs)

National Water Resource Strategy

Sta

keh

old

er

Inp

uts

Water use requirements taking into account BHN and economic growth imperatives

Water balance / imbalance including need and justification for strategic advocacy

Pu

blic

atio

n,

Ap

pea

ls, e

tc.

Ad

apti

ve

Man

agem

ent

Negotiated Class Allocation Schedule

Water conservation

and WDM

Monitoring, Evaluation and Enforcement (resource quality audit, source directed controls, CME, etc.)

Info. on water resource management options

New water resource

development

Compulsory Licensing

WfGD irt. Potential CC Impacts WfGD irt. Potential CC Impacts

�� Mainstreaming waterMainstreaming water

–– Water at the forefront of planning, not an afterWater at the forefront of planning, not an after--thoughtthought

–– Strengthening sectoral coStrengthening sectoral co--operation operation

�� Strengthen institutional capacityStrengthen institutional capacity

–– Strengthen regulatory capacityStrengthen regulatory capacity

–– Improve water managementImprove water management

–– Restructuring and reRestructuring and re--alignmentalignment

�� Striking a balance between supply and demandStriking a balance between supply and demand

–– WCWDM provides a better return on investmentWCWDM provides a better return on investment

–– Structured support to and more coherent effort by Structured support to and more coherent effort by municipalities for widescale adoption of WCWDMmunicipalities for widescale adoption of WCWDM

�� Changing water use behaviourChanging water use behaviour

–– Effect change in behaviour: regulate, selfEffect change in behaviour: regulate, self--regulate, use regulate, use of marketof market--based instruments and awareness and based instruments and awareness and educationeducation

Intervention MeasuresIntervention Measures

Average Incremental Cost of Intervention measures

1.06

1.85

3.56

4.5

6.75

8.02

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

Water Loss

Control

Water use

efficiency

Augmentation

(Local

Resources)

Effluent reuse Desalination Interbasin

transfers

AIC (R/m3)

The Water MixThe Water Mix

7%7%5%5%<1%<1%DesalinationDesalination

25%25%19%19%15%15%ReRe--turn flows turn flows

(irrigation, (irrigation,

treated effluent treated effluent

and mining)and mining)

12%12%10%10%8%8%GroundwaterGroundwater

65%65%72%72%77%77%Surface waterSurface water

LongLong--termterm

20402040

MidtermMidterm

20252025

20082008Water suppliesWater supplies

SectorSector--specific Recommendations specific Recommendations

Restrict afforestation to relatively under utilised wet catchmenRestrict afforestation to relatively under utilised wet catchments ts ForestryForestry

Implementation of resource directed measures indicate a need Implementation of resource directed measures indicate a need

for the massification of natural resource management for the massification of natural resource management

programmesprogrammes

EnvironmentEnvironment

Enforce irrigation scheduling. Incentivise the use of technologyEnforce irrigation scheduling. Incentivise the use of technology

for enhanced water use efficiency. Introduction of cascading for enhanced water use efficiency. Introduction of cascading

water tariffs. Stop all illegal water usewater tariffs. Stop all illegal water use

Irrigated agricultureIrrigated agriculture

Implementation of reconciliation strategies and rolling out to aImplementation of reconciliation strategies and rolling out to all ll

towns. Feasibility studies for desalinated water and treated towns. Feasibility studies for desalinated water and treated

effluent. Explore rainwater harvesting effluent. Explore rainwater harvesting

Domestic (urban and Domestic (urban and

rural) rural)

Much stronger regulation of mining & greater use of treated Much stronger regulation of mining & greater use of treated

effluent and groundwatereffluent and groundwater

MiningMining

Investing in and upscaling of technology that promotes water Investing in and upscaling of technology that promotes water

use efficiency use efficiency

EnergyEnergy

Conceptual Framework for AssessmentConceptual Framework for Assessment

Wat

er re

sour

ces

asse

ssm

ent

(reco

ncilia

tion,

dro

ught

, flo

odin

g, ti

min

g, fi

tnes

s-fo

r-use

)

Curre

ntsi

tuat

ion

Deve

lopm

ent

scen

ario

s

Clim

ate

chan

ge

Water availability(hydrology, groundwater, infrastructure and WQ)

Water requirements(demand, hydropower & instream env)

Deve

lopm

enta

l impa

ct(p

over

ty, liv

elih

oods

, mor

talit

y)

environ

fisheries

security

hydropower

industry

domestic

agriculture

Adap

tive

capa

city

(inst

itutio

ns, i

nfra

stru

ctur

e, s

ocio

-eco

nom

ic)

Vuln

erab

ility

(poo

rly re

sour

ced)

Adap

tatio

n / R

espo

nse

Impacts / Risk VulnerabilityChange / Drivers

Conceptual framework for assessing water resources impacts of Climate Change

Source: C. Moseki (2009, WRC)

Water Sector ResponseWater Sector Response

•• General agreement that adaptation and mitigation be the General agreement that adaptation and mitigation be the cornerstone of response strategy with adaptation issues cornerstone of response strategy with adaptation issues

likely to be predominant forms of intervention for wlikely to be predominant forms of intervention for water ater

sectorsector

•• Aim to understand risks and vulnerability and implications for Aim to understand risks and vulnerability and implications for ways in which demand and supply issues need to be balanced ways in which demand and supply issues need to be balanced in the overall water management system.in the overall water management system.

•• Some institutional issues relate to coSome institutional issues relate to co--ordination among key ordination among key rolerole--players throughout water value chain in implementing players throughout water value chain in implementing adaptation and mitigation plans, and monitoring and adaptation and mitigation plans, and monitoring and evaluation of programmes evaluation of programmes

•• It is recognized that CC has implications for future costs and It is recognized that CC has implications for future costs and investments in either existing infrastructure or the investments in either existing infrastructure or the development of new infrastructure. Therefore early decisions development of new infrastructure. Therefore early decisions now will save significant costs in the futurenow will save significant costs in the future

•• The strategy to consider both demand and supply measures in The strategy to consider both demand and supply measures in an integrated manneran integrated manner

Some Immediate Gaps IDSome Immediate Gaps ID

Research Gaps:

� Best entry points for adaptation

and mitigation

� Impacts of CC on water and sanitation.

� Socio-economic impacts of CC –

especially on the livelihoods of the poor

� Costs estimates on both mitigation and

adaptation

Successful adaptation requiresSuccessful adaptation requires……

•• Integrated management of waterIntegrated management of water

•• Sustained infrastructural developmentSustained infrastructural development

•• Strong institutions for good water Strong institutions for good water

governancegovernance

•• Innovative financing mechanisms and Innovative financing mechanisms and

additional resourcesadditional resources

•• More effective partnershipsMore effective partnerships

Key Messages Key Messages

•• Important nucleus of research capability in the areas of Important nucleus of research capability in the areas of modeling and impacts on watermodeling and impacts on water

•• Well established research portfolio for climate change (WRC) Well established research portfolio for climate change (WRC) and number of research reports and number of research reports

•• Reasonable understanding of the likely impacts on water in Reasonable understanding of the likely impacts on water in terms of quantity terms of quantity

•• In general, climate change modeling leads us to anticipate In general, climate change modeling leads us to anticipate impacts to be unequal across South Africa, increased rainfall impacts to be unequal across South Africa, increased rainfall (east), decrease in west and remain constant in the central (east), decrease in west and remain constant in the central partsparts

•• Anticipate extreme events (droughts and floods) to increase in Anticipate extreme events (droughts and floods) to increase in both their frequency and severityboth their frequency and severity

•• Knowledge gaps in terms of understanding of impact on water Knowledge gaps in terms of understanding of impact on water quality (e.g. eutrophication); health impacts arising from quality (e.g. eutrophication); health impacts arising from waterwater--related diseases (e.g. malaria, cholera, etc.); on related diseases (e.g. malaria, cholera, etc.); on agriculture, landagriculture, land--use practices, wetlands and estuaries use practices, wetlands and estuaries

•• Lack understanding at the catchment level taking into account Lack understanding at the catchment level taking into account existing landexisting land--use practices, water infrastructure etc.use practices, water infrastructure etc.

•• However, our policy and legislative framework is sound.However, our policy and legislative framework is sound.

Concluding remarksConcluding remarks

•• Concerted (from various sectors) effort required to Concerted (from various sectors) effort required to

respond to climate variability and CC impacts respond to climate variability and CC impacts

•• While current approach considers certain intervention While current approach considers certain intervention

measures (WfGD, NWRS) measures (WfGD, NWRS) –– CC water sector response strategy CC water sector response strategy

makes provision for much focused, comprehensive and proactivemakes provision for much focused, comprehensive and proactive

responseresponse

•• Resource requirements not to be undermined Resource requirements not to be undermined –– establishment of research establishment of research

and management portfolios (WRC and DWA) to ensure focused appand management portfolios (WRC and DWA) to ensure focused approach roach

•• SectorSector--specific recommendations as part of WfGD framework already specific recommendations as part of WfGD framework already

paving way for CC response / action planspaving way for CC response / action plans

Thank You!

Harrison Pienaar

Chief Director: Resource Directed Measures

+27-12-336-7197 (t); +27-12-336-7575 (f)

+27-82-807-4980 (m); qin@dwa.gov.za