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1 - [SIS] – EEA agricultural outlook
EEA - Reporting on the state of, trends in and prospects of the enviroment
SC
EN
AR
IOS
Stéphane IsoardScenarios and Future Analysis
Workshop on ‘inventories and projections of GHG and NH3 emissions from agriculture in Central and Eastern Europe’
Institute for Environment and Sustainability (IES), DG JRC, Ispra23-24 June 2005
EEA agricultural outlooksEEA agricultural outlooks
2 - [SIS] – EEA agricultural outlook
EEA - Reporting on the state of, trends in and prospects of the enviroment
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EN
AR
IOS
Rationales for EEA’s agricultural outlooksRationales for EEA’s agricultural outlooks
• EEA addresses policy options and long-term environmental impacts
• Synergies with the CAFE programme (nitrous oxide (N2O), methane (CH4), ammonia (NH3), RAINS)
• Projections up to 2010 should incorporate recent CAP mid-term review / reform
• Supplement and take stock of the existing projections (EC-DG AGRI, FAO, FAPRI, IFPRI)
• Projections beyond 2010 based on various global or regional studies, overlooking the specificities of the EU; inconsistencies identified (e.g. macroeconomic assumptions, modelling frameworks and the granularity of results)
-> There was a need for long-term projections at EU level
3 - [SIS] – EEA agricultural outlook
EEA - Reporting on the state of, trends in and prospects of the enviroment
SC
EN
AR
IOS
Approach to agriculture outlooksApproach to agriculture outlooks
• Driving forces: socio-economic scenarios from LREM baseline; no climate change assumptions; assumptions based on CAPRI model and CAP
• Models: CAPSIM (partial equilibrium model, economic accounts)
• Scope and timeframe: most of the EEA 31 member countries (1st time systematic and consistent; results at national level), to 2025.
• Output: cropping patterns (22 per country), livestock patterns (11 animal products per country), agricultural nutrient balances for N, P, K, GHGs linked to fertilizers and livestock
• Alternative scenarios: Liberalisation of animal product markets (Extended CAP reform), Best practices for fertiliser handling, A stronger EURO
4 - [SIS] – EEA agricultural outlook
EEA - Reporting on the state of, trends in and prospects of the enviroment
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EN
AR
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Key messagesKey messages
• Harvested land is expected to continue to be used mainly for fodder and the production of cereals (80% of the total area). Yields increase is expected to be the main source of production growth in Europe over the next 20 years.
Other arable crops
5%
Permanent crops & paddy
8%
Oilseeds & Pulses6%
Fodder42%
Cereals31%
Set aside & fallow land8%
-15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
Fodder
Permanent crops &paddy
Other arable crops
Oilseeds & Pulses
Cereals
Area Yield Production %
Arable land (2020/2001)- Use of arable land (2020) - Sources of crop growth (2020/2001)
5 - [SIS] – EEA agricultural outlook
EEA - Reporting on the state of, trends in and prospects of the enviroment
SC
EN
AR
IOS
Key messagesKey messages
The shift in demand from beef to poultry is expected to continue.
• + 20% in poultry demand (to 12.2 millions tonnes by 2020) is expected, at the expense mainly of beef (-6% to 6.5 millions tonnes)
• Pork meat demand expected to increase slightly to 20.2 millions t in 2020, still representing about 50% of the EU market.
• The relative share of the EU-15 and New-8 in the EU meat market in 2020 are expected to stay fairly stable, around 87% and 13% respectively.
• These expected developments reflect ongoing changes in diets.
6 - [SIS] – EEA agricultural outlook
EEA - Reporting on the state of, trends in and prospects of the enviroment
SC
EN
AR
IOS
Key messagesKey messages• Mineral fertiliser use is
expected to increase considerably in the new Member States, although it remains lower than in the EU-15 in absolute terms; this may lead to increases in associated environmental pressures.
• EU-23 nutrient surpluses are expected to be moderately reduced in 2020.
Environmental pressures (2020/2001)- Use of fertilisers - Nutrient balances, ammonia losses and GHG
emissions
-10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55
Organic supply (N, P, K)
Potassium(K)
Phosphate(P)
Nitrogen(N)
New-8 EU-15 %%
-30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
Methane(CH4; animals)
Nitrous oxide(N2O; fertilizer)
Potassium(K)
Phosphate(P)
Ammonia losses(NH3)
Nitrogen(N)
New-8 EU-15 %
7 - [SIS] – EEA agricultural outlook
EEA - Reporting on the state of, trends in and prospects of the enviroment
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EN
AR
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Key messagesKey messages
Best practices for fertiliser handling could reduce significantly the environmental pressures.
• In 2020, N, P, K surpluses reduced compared with the baseline scenario by 25%, 70%, and 57% respectively.
• Gaseous emissions also reduced (ammonia losses by 51%, nitrous oxide naturally to a lesser extent (12%), while methane emissions are left unchanged due to the definition of the scenario).
• The use of organic fertilisers increases sharply (between 60% and 80%) in substitution of mineral fertilisers (reduction of 30% to 60%).
8 - [SIS] – EEA agricultural outlook
EEA - Reporting on the state of, trends in and prospects of the enviroment
SC
EN
AR
IOS
The European Environment OutlookThe European Environment Outlook
• Outlooks developed for various environmental themes• GHG emissions and climate change• Air quality (CAFE)• Water stress• Water quality
• Key driving forces (socio/technico/economic, DG TREN)• Demography• Economy activity• Technological and sectoral developments• Consumption patterns• Energy and transport• Agriculture• Waste and material flows
Common set of assumptions for driving forces to ensure consistency and facilitate cross-cutting analysis
9 - [SIS] – EEA agricultural outlook
EEA - Reporting on the state of, trends in and prospects of the enviroment
SC
EN
AR
IOS
Integrated analysisIntegrated analysis
• European greenhouse gas emissions are expected to meet short-term targets if all additional policies and measures planned so far are implemented
• European greenhouse gas emissions are expected to exceed long-term targets set to prevent harmful climate change
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
EU-15 New-10 Per capita (EU-15) Per capita (New-10)
Mt CO2 eq/year t CO2 eq/cap/year
EU15 Kyoto Target (-8%)
NMS8 Kyoto Target (-7.8%)
0
1
2
3
4
5
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Global temperature change-'Baseline' Global temperature change-'Low emission scenario'
Degree Celsius
EU long-term sustainable target (6th EAP)
10 - [SIS] – EEA agricultural outlook
EEA - Reporting on the state of, trends in and prospects of the enviroment
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EN
AR
IOS
Integrated analysisIntegrated analysis• Air pollution and its
impacts on health and ecosystems are expected to decline significantly
Excess of nitrogen deposition (2000 and 2030 for the MFR scenario)
Emissions of air pollutants (Baseline and Maximum Feasible Reduction (MFR) scenarios, index 100 in 2000)
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110
PM2.5
PM10
NH3
SO2
NMVOC
NOX
MFR (2030) Baseline (2030) Baseline (2010) NEC ceiling (2010) Year 2000
Index
11 - [SIS] – EEA agricultural outlook
EEA - Reporting on the state of, trends in and prospects of the enviroment
SC
EN
AR
IOS
Integrated analysisIntegrated analysis
• The recent enlargement of the European Union is expected to provide both opportunities for and threats to the environment
-10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55
Organic supply (N, P, K)
Potassium(K)
Phosphate(P)
Nitrogen(N)
New-8 EU-15 %%
-30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
Methane(CH4; animals)
Nitrous oxide(N2O; fertilizer)
Potassium(K)
Phosphate(P)
Ammonia losses(NH3)
Nitrogen(N)
New-8 EU-15 %
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
EU-15 New-10 Per capita (EU-15) Per capita (New-10)
Mt CO2 eq/year t CO2 eq/cap/year
EU15 Kyoto Target (-8%)
NMS8 Kyoto Target (-7.8%)
Use of fertilisers, Nutrient balances, ammonia losses and GHG emissions (2020/2001)
12 - [SIS] – EEA agricultural outlook
EEA - Reporting on the state of, trends in and prospects of the enviroment
SC
EN
AR
IOS
Integrated analysisIntegrated analysis
• The Urban Waste Water Treatment Directive is expected to reduce significantly the overall discharge of nutrients from point sources
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Currentsituation
UWWTDirective
Currentsituation
UWWTDirective
Currentsituation
UWWTDirective
Currentsituation
UWWTDirective
Pe
rce
nt
of
po
pu
lati
on
Primary Secondary Tertiary Without treatment
New-5
Group 1 (EU-15)
Group 2 (EU-15)Group 3 (EU-15)
%
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
Group 1 (EU-15)
Group 2 (EU-15)
Group 3 (EU-15)
New-5
Current situation UWWT Directive
kg N / inh. / yr
Discharges of nitrogen and phosphorous from wastewater treatment plants
13 - [SIS] – EEA agricultural outlook
EEA - Reporting on the state of, trends in and prospects of the enviroment
SC
EN
AR
IOS
Gaps in the analysisGaps in the analysis
• Spatial analysis (forthcoming CAPRI-DYNASPAT project, Bonn University & JRC-IES)
• Comprehensive uncertainty analysis
• Macro-economic implications/feedbacks of env. policies
• Diffuse sources and biodiversity impacts
14 - [SIS] – EEA agricultural outlook
EEA - Reporting on the state of, trends in and prospects of the enviroment
SC
EN
AR
IOS
Considerations for developing projectionsConsiderations for developing projections• Common misunderstanding with regard to models: (1) ‘a
complete model is necessary’; (2) ‘I believe the results of the model’ (‘outputs’ = ‘inputs’)
• Since most modelling tools are extremely time-consuming and financially demanding (1-5 million EUROS for a full model?)…
Some guidelines for projections, whether these are based on simple or complex models, or a combination of experts and some modelling tools…
1. Methodology• make it clear and transparent.• Iterations – Interactions between stakeholders, responsible
authorities and modellers are key.• Simple methodologies are respectable! Real value of models =
take care of complex systems + get a sense of the system dynamics, i.e. marginal assessment.
15 - [SIS] – EEA agricultural outlook
EEA - Reporting on the state of, trends in and prospects of the enviroment
SC
EN
AR
IOS
Considerations for developing scenariosConsiderations for developing scenarios2. Inputs and outputs
• formally validated in a series of iterations – Checking on key relationships (spatial, technical, economical - FAO)
• Consistency with socio-economic context (e.g. pop., GDP, policies) – Inventories are about ‘known’ tech. parameters, projections are about ‘unknown’ socio-economic and structural factors affecting the agriculture sector.
3. Take stock of former projections (e.g. CAPSIM)
4. Assess uncertainty: scenario developments (focus on main uncertainties)
5. Stakeholders consultation (not only experts) - at the outset of the exercise (driving forces), during the project (obvious) and at the end (comparability, dissemination)
6. Dissemination (e.g. CDs – XML show)
16 - [SIS] – EEA agricultural outlook
EEA - Reporting on the state of, trends in and prospects of the enviroment
SC
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THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION.
PLEASE FEEL FREE TO TAKE A CD WITH YOU.
17 - [SIS] – EEA agricultural outlook
EEA - Reporting on the state of, trends in and prospects of the enviroment
SC
EN
AR
IOS
The conceptThe concept
• Highlight the interactions between and implications of sectoral developments and environmental issues. Link to past and ongoing Commission exercises when appropriate.
• Exploring sustainability of baseline projections (2020-2030), alternative scenarios and variants (up to 2100).
• Provide a coherent quantitative assessment as feasible, supplemented by qualitative analyses where needed.
• Key messages / early warnings for policy-makers.
18 - [SIS] – EEA agricultural outlook
EEA - Reporting on the state of, trends in and prospects of the enviroment
SC
EN
AR
IOS
Integrated quantitative assessmentIntegrated quantitative assessment
Water stress and water quality outlooks
Models WaterGAP (water use and availability), A model on nutrients from UWWT plants
Agriculture outlooks
Models CAPSIM (sectoral model)
Climate change and air pollution outlooks
Models PRIMES (energy & transport) POLES (energy & transport) TIMER/FAIR (GHGs emissions) RAINS (air pollution) IMAGE (climate change) Euromove (ecosystem composition)
Waste and material flows outlooks
Models A macro-econometric waste & material flows model
Results also used as input to other Technical Reports
'Household Consumption'EEA Technical Report
'Sustainable use of natural resources'
EEA Technical Report
'Halting the loss of biodiversity'EEA Technical Report
'Environmental aspects of enlargement'
Advisory Group
'Europe’s Environment & the Global Dimension'
Multimedia
'Environment & health'EEA Technical Report
'Climate change & sustainable energy'
EEA Technical Report State of the Environment and Outlook report
2005
'European Environment Outlook'EEA Technical Report
19 - [SIS] – EEA agricultural outlook
EEA - Reporting on the state of, trends in and prospects of the enviroment
SC
EN
AR
IOS
QA, consultation and disseminationQA, consultation and dissemination• QA and consultation processes
• Synergies with the EC using many of the same modelling tools• Advisory Group• Contributors and EEA Internal Reviews• European Commission and a NFPs/NRCs Consultation• SMT review• MB review (ongoing)
• Dissemination of results• EEA report + web posting• Oral and poster presentations in conferences (articles)• Paper for academic journals• Outlooks used in related projects (e.g. EC-JRC)
20 - [SIS] – EEA agricultural outlook
EEA - Reporting on the state of, trends in and prospects of the enviroment
SC
EN
AR
IOS
Key messagesKey messages
• The more fragmented European society is expected to increase some environmental pressures
90
95
100
105
110
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
EEA-31 EU-15 New-10
Index (1990 = 100)
90
100
110
120
130
140
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
Number of households (EU-15) Number of households (New-10)Number of persons per household (EU-15) Number of persons per household (New-10)
Index (1990 = 100) units
Population development 1990-2030
21 - [SIS] – EEA agricultural outlook
EEA - Reporting on the state of, trends in and prospects of the enviroment
SC
EN
AR
IOS
Key messagesKey messages
• European greenhouse gas emissions are expected to meet short-term targets if all additional policies and measures planned so far are implemented
• European greenhouse gas emissions are expected to exceed long-term targets set to prevent harmful climate change
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
EU-15 New-10 Per capita (EU-15) Per capita (New-10)
Mt CO2 eq/year t CO2 eq/cap/year
EU15 Kyoto Target (-8%)
NMS8 Kyoto Target (-7.8%)
0
1
2
3
4
5
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Global temperature change-'Baseline' Global temperature change-'Low emission scenario'
Degree Celsius
EU long-term sustainable target (6th EAP)
22 - [SIS] – EEA agricultural outlook
EEA - Reporting on the state of, trends in and prospects of the enviroment
SC
EN
AR
IOS
Approach to air and climate change Approach to air and climate change outlooksoutlooks
Driving forces: socio-economic scenarios from LREM/CAFE baselinealternative ‘SEP scenario’ and scenario ‘variants’
Models:transport & energy: PRIMES, POLES, (TREMOVE, SCENES)emissions: TIMER, FAIRair & climate change: RAINS, IMAGE
Output:emissions (CO2, CH4, N2O, HFC, PFC, SF6, SO2,PM10, …) climate change (temperature, precipitation)impacts (ecosystem composition, growing season)
23 - [SIS] – EEA agricultural outlook
EEA - Reporting on the state of, trends in and prospects of the enviroment
SC
EN
AR
IOS
Approach to agriculture outlooksApproach to agriculture outlooks
Driving forces: socio-economic scenarios from LREM/CAFE baselineno climate change assumptionsfertilizer consumption calibrated to match EFMA projectionsadditional assumptions based on CAPRI model and CAP
Models:CAPSIM (partial equilibrium model, economic accounts)
Output:cropping patterns (22 per country)livestock patterns (11 animal products per country)agricultural nutrient balances for N, P, Kgreenhouse gas emissions linked to fertilizers and livestock
24 - [SIS] – EEA agricultural outlook
EEA - Reporting on the state of, trends in and prospects of the enviroment
SC
EN
AR
IOS
Approach to waste outlooksApproach to waste outlooks
Driving forces: socio-economic scenarios from LREM/CAFE baselineassumptions
Models:macroeconomic model developed by EEA ETC Waste & Material Flows
Output:waste: municipal, industrial, C&D, packaging, paper, glass
material flows: minerals, biomass extraction and fossil fuels
25 - [SIS] – EEA agricultural outlook
EEA - Reporting on the state of, trends in and prospects of the enviroment
SC
EN
AR
IOS
Approach to water outlooksApproach to water outlooks
Driving forces: socio-economic scenarios from LREM/CAFE baselineclimate change scenarios from IMAGE and PRIMES modelsadditional structural & technological change assumptions
Models:WaterGAP (integrated water quantity model)simple model on urban water treatment plants
Output:water stress, water availability, water use (by domestic, electricity, industry, agriculture sectors) - per 0.5° gridwaste water from households, waste water treatment, nutrient discharges from treatment plants
26 - [SIS] – EEA agricultural outlook
EEA - Reporting on the state of, trends in and prospects of the enviroment
SC
EN
AR
IOS
Alternative scenarios and variantsAlternative scenarios and variants• Air and climate change:
• Air: Maximum Feasible Reductions• CC: Sustainable Emission Pathway, low economic growth,
accelerated diffusion of renewables, accelerated diffusion and decommissioning of nuclear
• Agriculture:• Liberalisation of animal product markets (Extended CAP
reform), Best practices for fertiliser handling, A stronger EURO
• Waste and material flows:• Low economic growth, sustainable emission pathway (for fossil
fuels only), Landfill Directive (biodegradable waste)
• Water stress:• Sustainable emission pathway, non-convergence of per capita
water use in the New-10
27 - [SIS] – EEA agricultural outlook
EEA - Reporting on the state of, trends in and prospects of the enviroment
SC
EN
AR
IOS
EEA’s environmental scenarios portalEEA’s environmental scenarios portal
Web Portal
• EEA Reports
• Links to• institutions• networks• studies
• Resources
• News
• Glossary
• Bibliographyhttp://scenarios.ewindows.eu.org