Education Mismatch in Australia

7/27/2019 Education Mismatch in Australia

1/16

Mimatch: Atralia Gradat and thJob MarktAndrew Norton

Politicians andacademicsargue thatweneedmorepeoplegraduating romuniversity tomeet strong labourmarket demand or themanagerial andproessionaljobstowhichgraduatesusuallyaspire.

Inanumberooccupations,includingmanyhealth-relatedproessions,therearechronicshortagesoworkers,inpartreectingtooewgraduates.

However,therearealsohalamilliongraduatesinoccupationsthatdonotnormallyrequireuniversityqualifcationsorwhoareunemployed.

ThisreectsamismatchbetweenthegraduatesAustralianuniversitiesproduceandlabourmarketdemand.

Itisimpossibletomatchpreciselysupplyanddemandorgraduates;therearetoomanyvariablesthatcannotbepredictedwithprecision.

However,Australiascentrally-controlledsystemoallocatinguniversityplaceshasailedtoadjusttoeitherstudentorlabourmarketdemand.

Amarketsystem,inwhichuniversitiessetthenumberoplacesandstudentees,woulddoabetterjobosupplyingAustraliasworkorce.

Andrw Norton is a Research Feow at The Centre for Independent Stdies. He is the athor of an artices andpapers on higher edcation poic, and of The Unchained University(CIS, 2002).

ExECuTIvE SummARy No. 84 23 march 2007

ISSN: 1440 6306

www.cis.org.auwww.ci.org.a

ssueANAlySIS


2/16

2 Issue Analysis

Thisyearmorethan170,000Australianswillenrolinanundergraduatecourse.Yetaccordingtopoliticians,academicsandVice-Chancellorsitisnotenough.InJanuary,VictorianSkillsMinister JacintaAllancomplained that17,000eligibleVictorianuniversityapplicantshadmissedoutonaplace.Overthelastyear,prominentMonashUniversityacademicBobBirrellandederalLaborMPCraigEmersonhavebotharguedthatuniversityenrolmentsaregrowinglessquicklythandemandorgraduates.ThoughthePresidentothepeakbodyrepresentingVice-Chancellorssaidrecentlythatwedontneedmorestudents,hisorganisationhaspreviouslyproposeda60%targetoruniversityattendanceoveralietime.Lessthan30%oourcurrentlymosteducatedcohort,those

aged2534in2006,holdahighereducationqualifcation.1The60%targetwasunsupportedbyevidence,butBirrellandEmersonprovidestudent

enrolmentandlabourmarketdatasupportingtheirexpansionistagenda.GraduatesnormallyaspiretoenteroccupationsclassifedbytheAustralianBureauoStatisticsasmanagerial,proessional,andassociateproessional.Thetotalnumberojobsintheseoccupations,asBirrellandEmersonpointout,hasincreasedsignifcantlysincethemid-1990s.Bycontrast,annualuniversitycommencementsareonlyslightlyhigherthanin1995.In aco-authoredpaper,Birrellconcludes thatAustralia acesacrisisin the

availabilityouniversity-trainedpersonnel.2Nearlytwentyyearsago,similarconclusionswerereachedinagreenpaperthatJohnDawkins, thenEducationMinister,used tojustiyarapidincreaseinuniversityenrolments.Shortagesoskilledlabourcontinuetobewidelyreportedinarangeoproessionaldisciplinesservicedbyourhighereducation

institutions,itsaid.3

Aswellasmeetingworkorceneeds,advocatesomoreuniversityplaceshopetoprovideopportunitiesorpeopleromlow-incomebackgrounds,whoseuniversityparticipationratesremainwellbelowthoseachievedbytheirmiddle-classcontemporaries.TheAustralianVice-ChancellorsCommittee(AVCC)saysthatimprovingaccessisnecessarytoachieveparityorstudentsromdisadvantagedbackgrounds.Inapublicationnotingrelatively lowuniversityenrolments romouter-suburbanMelbourne,Birrell andhiscolleaguessuggestcreatingadditionalplacesaimeddirectlyatpotentialstudentsrom

theseareas.4Theideathatuniversitiescouldandshouldpromotesocialequalityhasmotivated

policymakers or decades.Itwas arationale or reeeducation inthe1970sand itsreplacementwithHECSinthelate1980s,withHECSrevenueusedtocreateadditionalplaces.ThecurrentLaborleadershipteamhasreectednostalgicallyonreeeducation,

andsaidthatHECSratesshouldcomedowntomakeuniversitymoreaordable.5Thetwoargumentsoroeringmoreuniversityplacesareinter-linked,becausethepotentialhumancapitalopeopleromdisadvantagedbackgroundsmaybelostitheyacquiretoolittleeducation.Asthisbriehistorysuggests,recentargumentsoralargerhighereducationsystem

arenotnovel.Rather, they are thehighereducationpolicycommunitys long-held

orthodoxy.Theyarenowpresentedasacritiqueocurrentpolicy,ratherthanasadeence,onlybecauseuniversityenrolmentgrowthrates,atleastorCommonwealth-supportedplaces,havedeclinedsincethelate1990s,andevenreversedinsomeyears.Yetthelabourmarketsituationograduatesismorecomplexthanportrayed,withshortagesexistingalongsideoversupply.

shortag of gradat

InsomecareersthatusuallyoralwaysrequirehighereducationqualifcationsAustraliaexperienceson-goinglabourshortages.Table1showsoccupationsorwhichemployershaveexperiencedchronicrecruitmentproblemsoverthelastfveyears,eitherinallstates(markedwithanN)ormoststates(markedwithaW).Wheremigrationdataare

disaggregatedtoasufcientextent,thetableincludesworkersenteringAustraliabetween200102and200405,providingurtherevidencethatthelocallabourmarketcould

Th labormarkt itation

of gradat imor complx

than portrayd,with hortag

xiting alongidovrpply


3/16

Issue Analysis 3

notmeetemployerneeds.Becauseonlysomevacanciesareopentorecently-qualifedworkers,moregraduatesinthesefeldsovertheprecedingyearswouldhavealleviated,thoughnoteliminated,theseshortages.

Tabl 1: Labor markt hortag

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Ovrarcritmnt

Accontant N W N N N 10,705

Rgitrd nr N N N N N 7,969

Pharmacit N N N W N

Phyiothrapit N N N N N

Dntit N N W N

scondary tachr N N W N N

enginr W N N N N 6,930

Lawyr W W W W W

N=NationalshortagesW=Widespreadshortages

Sources:DepartmentoEmploymentandWorkplaceRelations, Skills in Demand Lists,variousyears.B.Birrell,V.RapsonandT.FredSmith,Australias Net Gains rom International Skilled Movement,(MonashUniversity/DepartmentoImmigrationandMulticulturalAairs,2006).

Thelinkbetweenthedomesticowograduatesandskillsshortagescanbeseeninrecentgraduateull-timeemploymentoutcomes.Table2usesdataromtheGraduateDestinationSurveyongraduateemploymentapproximatelyourmonthsatercoursecompletion.Typicallyatthispoint,about20%ograduatesareunemployedorunder-employed,defnedasworkinginapart-timeorcasualjobbutlookingora ull-timeposition.Howeverlabourmarketsaretightorgraduatesinsomefeldsostudy,with5%oralowerproportionograduatesstillseekingull-timeworkwhenthesurveyisconducted.Thisindicatesthatemployersquicklytakeonnewlyqualifedworkers.Engineering,dentistry,nursing,andpharmacyareprominentinboththislistandtheskillsshortagelistbasedonemployersurveys.

Tabl 2: Gradat n- and ndr-mploymnt at or blow 5%

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Civil nginring N N y y y

Mining nginring N N y y y

Dntitry y N y y y

Nring y y y y y

Pharmacy y y y y yMdicin y y y y y

Vtrinary cinc y y y N y

Y=YesN=NoSource:GraduateCareersAustralia,Graduate Destinations,variousyears.

Thereisacaseormorestudentsandthereoregraduatesinthefeldsappearinginbothtable1andtable2.Butthesearejustaewomanyfeldsostudyandsubsequentoccupationsoruniversitystudentsandgraduates.Beorejumpingtotheconclusionthatweneedmoreuniversity-qualifedworkers,weneedtoexaminetheoverallgraduateemploymentsituation.

Bfor jmpingto th conclionthat w nd mornivrity-qalifidworkr, w ndto xamin th

ovrall gradatmploymntitation


4/16

4 Issue Analysis

Gradat mploymnt

Itistrue,asBobBirrellandVirginiaRapsonpointoutintheir2006Clearing theMyths Awaypaperonwhyweneedmoreuniversitystudents,thattherearemorejobopportunitiesorgraduatesthaneverbeore.Theytellus thatbetween199697and200506overallemploymentinAustraliaincreasedby20%,butormanagersthegrowth

was56%,orproessionals37%,andorassociateproessionals39%.6CraigEmerson

hasclaimedthattwo-thirdsojobscreatedintheHowardyearshavebeenorgraduates.7

Theseareimpressivestatistics.Moreover,labourmarketorecastsorthenextewyears

suggestcontinuedannualgrowthortheseoccupationsinthe1.3%to2.8%range.8Itisamistake,however,toassumethatgraduateshavetheseoccupationstothemselves.

TheoccupationaldefnitionsusedbytheAustralianBureauoStatistics(ABS)makeclearthatthisisnotnecessarilythecase.Managersandadministratorsandproessionalsareassumedtohaveaskilllevelcommensuratewithadegree,butnotnecessarilytoactuallyholdadegree.Forassociateproessionalsthebaseskilllevelisadiplomaratherthan

adegree.9As table3shows,mostmanagersandassociateproessionalsarenotdegreeholders.Onlyamongproessionalsaregraduatesamajority,thoughtheoveralltrend

istowarddegree-holders. 10Apartromspecifcoccupationsrestrictedtopeoplewith

particularcredentials,graduatesmustcompetenotjustagainstothergraduates,butalsopeoplewithlesserormalqualifcations.Usingmorerealisticassumptionsaboutwhoiscapableofllingmanagerial,proessionalandassociateproessionalpositions,justunderhalothenewjobscreatedintheHowarderaweregraduatejobs,notthetwo-thirdsclamedbyCraigEmerson.

Tabl 3: Non-dgr qalifid job holdr

Managr Profional Aociat profional Total

1996 81% 36% 73% 58%

2006 63% 30% 79% 51%

Source:ABS,Education and Work,Cat.6227.0.ABS,Transition rom Education to Work,Cat.6227.0.

WhileBirrellandRapsonnotenon-graduateemploymentintheseoccupations,theyleaveunexploredgraduateemploymentinoccupationsthatdonotrequiredegrees.This

numbercanbecalculatedromstatisticsintheABSpublication,Education and Work.11Atanygiventime,thetotalnumberograduatesinthelabourorceconsiderablyoutnumbersgraduatesinmanagerial,proessionalorassociateproessionaljobs.Thelatest Educationand Worksurveyrecordedmorethanhalamillionsuchpeople.Mostwereemployedinclerical,salesorservicejobs,withsomeothersworkingaslabourersorunemployed.

Together,theymakeup21%oallgraduatesintheworkorce.12

Thoughsomegraduatelabourmarketsaretight,thereisnooverallshortageoworkerswithdegrees.Subjectivemeasures oeducationexceedingjob requirementspoint toa similar

conclusion.Ineachotworecentsurveysaskingrespondentswhethertheyusetheirabilitiesandqualifcationsatwork,reportedintable4,justunderafthobachelordegreeholderssaythattheydonot,withnearlyasmanyagaininonesurveyneitheragreeing

nordisagreeingwiththeproposition. 13Thesesurveysromthefrsthalothe2000sareconsistentwithanotherromthemid-1990s,inwhich19%orespondentswitha

universityeducationassessedtheirjobsasrequiringonlyasecondaryeducation. 14Theseresultsverycloselymatchtheproportiono employedgraduateswithoutmanagerial,proessionalorassociateproessionaljobs,whichhasuctuatedinthe1820%range

since1997.

Thogh omgradat labor

markt artight, thr i noovrall hortagof workr with

dgr


5/16

Issue Analysis 5

Tabl 4: Do not abiliti/qalification at work, lf-rport

bachlor dgr

Agr Diagr Nithr

2003 19.7% 72.9% 6.7%

2005 18.3% 64.9% 15.5%

Question2003:Dontgettousemyabilities/qualifcationsatwork.Question2005:Idontgetachancetousemyabilitiesorqualifcationsatwork.Source:AustralianSurveyoSocialAttitudes.

DespiteslowgrowthinstudentenrolmentandstronggrowthinemploymentduringtheHowardyears,thenumberoworkersnotusingtheirqualifcationscontinuestoincrease,asfgure1shows.Onlyonceinthelastfteenyearshasthetotaldeclined,thoughthepercentageograduateswithoutsuitablejobshasstabilisedwellbelowits1996peak.Inthemid-1990s,graduatesromtheearly1990senrolmentboomwereswampingarecession-aectedlabourmarket.

Figr 1: Gradat in th labor forc withot job

in gradat occpation

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1991

1992

1993

1994

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

'000

0.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

20.00%

25.00%

30.00%

Number of graduates

% of graduates

Source:ABS,Education and Work,Cat.6227.0andpredecessorpublications,variousyears.

A dynamic labor forc

Figure1showsthatAustraliahasalarge,andinmostyearsincreasing,poolopeoplewithuniversitydegreesinjobsthattypicallyrequirelesserqualifcations.Whileoccupationalcategorisationscanmissthenuancesoindividualjobs,whichmayinpracticedrawonlesserorhigherskilllevelsthanbroaddescriptionsreveal,thesel-reportsintable4giveusnoreasontobelievethatfgure1over-statestheextentoover-education.Ineachcase,wefndthatthequalifcationsoaround20%ograduatesareunder-utilisedintheworkorce.Theyareequivalenttoareservegraduatelabourorceoaroundfveyearsocompletingbachelordegreestudents.Thoughthereisa largesurplusouniversity-qualifedemployeesatanyonetime,

eachyeartherearehundredsothousandsojobopeningsinthegraduateworkorceomanagers,proessionalsandassociateproessionals.Theseopportunitiesarecreated

notjustbythelong-termemploymentgrowthnotedbyBobBirrellandCraigEmerson,butalsobyjobturnover.ABSlabourmarketdataindicatesthatnearlyhalamillion

Atralia ha alarg, and in motyar incraing,pool of poplwith nivrity

dgr in jobthat typicallyrqir lrqalification


6/16

6 Issue Analysis

managers,proessionalsandassociateproessionalshadbeenintheirjoblessthan12

monthsasoJuly2006.15Aswellaspeoplemovingbetweenpositionswithinthesamejobcategories,therearealsomanyopportunitiestomoveintotheseoccupations.Table5comparesrespondentslabourmarketpositionatthetimeothesurveywithtwelvemonthspreviously.Itshowsthatlargenumbersopeopleenterandexittheseoccupationseveryyear.Mostcomeromoutothelabourorce,butshitsbetweenoccupationalcategoriesarealsoimportant.Overtwelvemonths,therearemanymorevacanciesingraduatejobsthantherearenewgraduates(about100,000inrecentyears).However,newgraduatesmustcompetewithothergraduatesandpeoplewithoutuniversityqualifcations.AurthercomplicatingactorismovementinandoutoAustralia,asseenintable6.

Eachyear,thenumberomanagers,proessionalsandassociateproessionalsdepartingAustraliaisequivalenttobetweentwo-thirdsandthree-quartersothenumberonewgraduates.Internationalmovementdoesnot,however,lessencompetitionsincedeparturesareoutnumberedbyarrivalsromoverseas.MostarrivalsareAustralianresidentsreturninghome,butsettlersareequivalenttonearly40%oannualAustraliannewgraduates.

Tabl 5: Trnovr in managrial, profional and aociat profional

workforc (000)

1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006

Additions to graduate workforce

Not working 12 month prior 104.6 120.4 148.6 171.9 179.5 222.3

Inward flow from othr occpation 42.7 68.9 75.5 77 87.6 170.9

Total 147.3 189.3 224.1 248.9 267.1 393.2

Departures from graduate workforce

Non-dgr job 42 50.6 66.9 57.7 71.6 97

unmploymnt 35.5 42.1 48.6 52.9 54.9 52.7

Not in labor forc 67.5 96.3 97.5 95.6 120.4 147.4

Total 145 189 213 206.2 246.9 297.1

Nt xpanion 2.3 0.3 11.1 42.7 20.2 96.1

Source:AustralianBureauoStatistics,Labour Mobility,Cat.6209.0,variousyears.

Tabl 6: Intrnational arrival and dpartr (000)

Profional, aociat profional, and managr and adminitrator

2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05

Ridnt rtrning from

ovra

35.8 39.6 43.6 45.7 47

sttlr 33.8 29.2 30.3 37.3 40.2

Total arrival 69.6 68.8 73.9 83 87.2

Ridnt dparting for ovra 65.2 67.8 66 68.5 74.3

Nt gain 4.4 1 7.9 14.5 12.9

Source: Australias Net Gains rom International Skilled Movement(MonashUniversity/DepartmentoImmigrationandMulticulturalAairs,2006).

Fromallthesemovementsin,outandaroundtheAustralianlabourorcetheposition

orecentgraduatesimprovesovertime.Asfgure2shows,graduatesagedintheirtwentiesaremuchmorelikelytobeinnon-graduatejobsthanthoseintheirthirties.Nevertheless,evenamonggraduatesintheirthirtiestheproportionoverqualifedor theirposition

Nw gradatmt compt with

othr gradat

and poplwithot nivrity

qalification


7/16

Issue Analysis 7

remainsinthehighteens,andthereisinternationalevidencethatover-educationpersists

overtime.16

Figr 2: Gradat in non-gradat job, by ag

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

3540

45

15-24 25-29 30-34 35-39

%Non-graduate

jobs

Source:ABS,Education and Work,Cat.6227.0,2005.

Thoughseveralhundredthousandpeopleleavethegraduateworkorceeachyear,Australiais ar romconrontingthe crisisin university-qualifedpersonnelclaimedbyBirrellandhiscolleagues.Graduatesareinshortsupplyinonlyasmallnumberooccupations.Somewayneedstobeoundtoavoidchroniclabourorceshortages.Butwithmorethan800,000graduatesoutotheworkorce,unemployed,orinjobsthatunder-utilisetheirqualifcations,expandingtotal studentnumbersshouldnotbethefrstpriority.A bettersystemormatchinggraduatesandjobsis themoreimportantnextstep.

Forcating dmand for gradat

Predictinguturelabourmarketrequirementsisnoeasytask.Manyvariablesaectdemandortheskillsoeredbygraduates.Theoveralleconomicgrowthrateisimportant,butsotooareconditionsinparticularindustries.Growthintheretailindustry,whereonly8%oworkershavedegrees,willhavemuchlesseectongraduateemploymentthan

growthintheeducationindustry,inwhichnearlytwo-thirdsoworkershavedegrees. 17Someindustriesarecyclical.Civilengineersareintightsupplynow,butduringtheearly1990srecessionaconstructiondownturnlet30%orecentgraduatesunemployed.Inthelate1990s,theAustralianITindustryarguedthatitacedsevereshortagesoworkers.Asit turnedout,manyITproessionalsstruggledtofndworkintheearly2000s. Insomeindustries,therearesocialtrendsthatmeandemandislikelytogrow.Forexample,populationageingwill,otherthingsbeingequal,increasetheneedorhealthproessionals.Butchangesinmedicaltechnologyorpopulationliestylescouldstillrenderinaccuratelabourdemandorecastsbasedoncurrenttechnologiesandliestyles.Notonlyisorecastingoveralldemandorparticularkindsoskillsdifcult,butsotoo

iscalculatinghowmanygraduateswewouldneedtomeetit.Astables5and6indicate,thenumberopeopleinmanagerial,proessionalandassociateproessionaloccupationsleavingtheAustralianlabourorceeachyearhasrisensignifcantlyoverthelastewyears.ThissuggeststhattofllaorecastnumberojobsAustralianeedsmoregraduatesandmigrantsthaninthepast,toreplacethosenotworkingoremployedoverseas.Theeminisationouniversityenrolmentsalsohassignifcantimplicationsorthe

graduateworkorce.Overthelastdecade,womensshareouniversitycoursecompletions

hasbeenaround58%.18Figure3showsthatin2003emalegraduatesonaveragewerelesslikelytobeintheworkorcethantheirmalecontemporaries.Figure4showsthat

A bttr ytmfor matchinggradat and

job i th morimportantnxt tp


8/16

8 Issue Analysis

emalegraduateswhowereintheworkorcespendewerhoursinpaidemploymentthantheirmalecontemporaries.Thoughthe long-termtrend istowardshigherworkorceparticipationratesamonguniversity-educatedwomen,intheoreseeableutureonaverageemalegraduateswillprovidemanyewerhourslabourorcesupplythanmale

graduates.19

Figr 3: Gradat not in workforc

Not in labour force

0

5

10

15

20

25

25-34 35-44 45-64

Age

%Men

Women

Figr 4: Gradat working part-tim

Part-time work

0

10

20

30

40

50

25-34 35-44 45-64

Age

%Men

Women

Source:ABS,Education and Work,Cat6227.0,2003.

stting tdnt nmbr

Therearetoomanyunknownsorthereevertobeaperectmatchbetweengraduatesandjobs.Itollowsthatnopolicyrameworkcanguaranteethatthenecessaryworkerswillalwaysbeavailable,orthatallgraduateswillbeabletosecurejobsthatmeettheirexpectations.Yetevengiventheseconstraints,Australiassystemosettingstudentnumbersinuniversitiesaddstotheinherentrisksooverandunder-supplyograduate

workers.ThoughtheAustralianpostgraduatecourseworkmarketislargelyderegulated,allowinguniversitiesandotherhighereducationprovidersto respondtostudentandemployerdemand,mostplacesinundergraduatecoursesareallocatedbytheederal

Atralia ytmof tting tdnt

nmbr innivriti add to

th inhrnt rikof ovr and ndr-pply of gradat

workr


9/16

Issue Analysis 9

governmentandundedaccordingtotheirpolicies.Thisbureaucratic-politicalprocessisverypoorlyequippedtoprovidethebestpossibleowograduatesromuniversitiestotheworkorce.TheDepartmentoEducation,ScienceandTraining(DEST),whichhasprimary

responsibilityordistributingCommonwealth-supportedplacestouniversities,lacksanysignifcantcapacitytoadjuststudentplacesinresponsetolabourmarkettrends.Thevastmajorityoundergraduateplacesareassignedorhistoricratherthanstrategicreasons.Yearateryear,thesameplacesinthesamedisciplinesaregiventothesameuniversities.Thesehistoricallocationsarerarelychangedwithoutauniversityrequest.Intheory,

suchrequestsprovideanopportunitytore-alignenrolmentswithlabourorceneeds.Inpractice,universitiesarehighlyconstrainedintherequeststheycanmake,astheymustmeetbothenrolmentandexpendituretargetssetbytheCommonwealth.Itishardestoalltoaddplacesinhigh-costcourses.Forexample,creatinganextradentalplacewithinafxedundingenvelopewould,oncurrentundingrates,requireabolishingtwoITplacesorthreemathsplaces.Yettoomanysuchsacrifceswouldseeauniversitysenrolmentlevelsallbelowtheirmandatedminimum,removingsuchinternalreallocationsaseasiblepossibilities.Unortunately,allthecoursesshowingtightgraduatelabourmarketsintable2arehigh-costcourses.Sowhilelabourmarkettrendssuggestthatuniversities

shouldbeincreasingthenumberograduatesinhealthandengineeringrelativetootherdisciplines,coursecompletionsdatapublishedbyDESTshowsthemtobeinslight

relativedecline.20Thelabourmarketisdynamic,buttheuniversitysystemsupplyingitgraduatesostersinertia.TheCommonwealthsteersthesystemmostwhengivingoutnewplaces.Inrecent

allocationsthegovernmenthas,reactingtoseriousworkorceshortages,ocusedonhealth-relatedcourses.Butthe4,600newplacesitannouncedinJuly2006willincreaseCommonwealth-supportedplacesbyonly1%,sorelativeenrolmentsharesbetweendisciplineswillchangeverylittle.Theprocessodistributingnewplacesisalsohighlyprescriptive,settingoutnotjustgeneralfeldsostudybutalsospeciyingcoursesandcampuses.Thisrigidapproachurtherreducesuniversitiescapacitytorespondtochanging

circumstances.Itcouldresultinplacesbeingunflledbystudents,wheredemanddoesnotpreciselymatchthesupplycriteriaset.21Arguably,studentplaceallocationcouldbe improvedwithinacentrally-controlled

systembybetteranalysisolabourmarkettrendsandgreaterwillingnesstore-allocatestudentplacesbetweendisciplinesandbetweenuniversities.Yetthoughinprinciplethegovernmentcoulddobetter,weneedtoaskwhyithasnot.Oneobviousreasonisthatitsincentivestructureisinadequate.Thereareewpoliticalrewardsorgettinghighereducationrightandewpoliticalpenaltiesorgettingitwrong.Surveysowhichissuesvotersthinkmostimportantshowthathighereducationisnothighontheirlisto

priorities.22Giventhatthisisasensiblepositionormostvoterstoholdveryewhavedirectcontactwithuniversitiescomparedtootherspendingprioritiessuchashealth,

socialsecurityandschoolsitisunlikelytochange.Hopesoraundingocusonhighereducationpolicyareaslikelytobedashedintheutureastheyhavebeeninthepast.Weneedasystemlessreliantonpolitics,andmoreresponsivetothosewithmostatstake:universities,studentsandemployers.

Ltting markt mt labor forc dmand

Amarket-drivenhighereducationsystemhasbeenproposedseveraltimesasanalternative

totheCommonwealth-directedmodel.23Underamarketmodel,thegovernmentwouldnotsetmaximumorminimumnumbersoplacesatanyhighereducationinstitutionorinanydiscipline.Itwouldnotsetthemaximumeeschargedtostudents.Thosedecisionswouldbelettohighereducationinstitutionsthemselves,takingintoaccount

theirmissions,strategiesandcompetitors.Icommercialdemandexistsorplacesinaparticulardiscipline,government-imposedquotasandpricecontrolswouldnolonger

Th labor markti dynamic, btth nivrity

ytm pplying itgradat fotrinrtia


10/16

10 Issue Analysis

standinthewayoplacesbeingcreated.Insteadocausingproblemsinthehighereducationsector,asitdoesnow,thegovernmentsrolewouldbetoeaseproblemsthatariseinthemarketplace.Itsmainunctionswouldbestudentloans,studentincomesupport,andwherenecessaryinuencingsupplyanddemandbyoeringincentivesoruniversitiestoprovideplacesorstudentstoapplyoraplace.Itisntpossibletosayexactlywhatauturemarket-drivenhigher-educationsector

wouldlooklike.Thisisnotaault;iuturedemandscannotbepredictedingreatdetailthennorcanthelookoasystemdesignedtomeetthem.But,asatestohowamarketmodelmightworkincomparisontothecurrentsystem,wecanusehistoricaldatatoseewhatsituationwemighthavebeeninnow,hadwealreadyimplementedamarketsystemohighereducation.Atthetuitionchargesprevailingoverthelastdecade,studentdemandexceededthe

supplyoplacesinareasopersistentlabourmarketshortages.Figure5showsresultsromtheannualunmetdemandreportsissuedbytheAustralianVice-ChancellorsCommittee(AVCC)usingdataromthestate-baseduniversityadmissionscentres.Unmetdemandisparticularlyhighorhealth-relatedcourses,withthousandsoapplicantsmissingouteveryyear.Trueunmetdemandislikelytobegreaterthanthesestatisticsrecord,becausehighdemandrelativetosupplymeansthatentryrequirementsareverydemanding.

Medicine,dentistryandveterinarysciencetypicallyallrequireschoolresultsinthetop1or2%inthestate,causingsomecapableprospectivestudentstoabandontheircareeraspirationsasunrealistic.

Figr 5: unmt dmand, lctd diciplin

Source:AustralianVice-ChancellorsCommittee,Report on Applications or Undergraduate UniversityCourses,variousyears.

TheAVCCsunmetdemandstatisticsaresometimescriticisedorcountingapplicantsunlikelytobeaccepted,evenisufcientplaceswereavailable.Thisisbecausetheyseta lowminimumENTER,whichis a rankamongschoolleaversusedoruniversityselection(calledUAIinNSW),asthebaseleveloruniversityplaceeligibility.Table7showsthatinsomecourseshighlyrankedschoolleaversmissoutonaplace.WhileweturnbrightyoungAustraliansawayrommedicalcourses,wehavetobringthousands

ooverseas-traineddoctorstoAustraliatofllworkorceshortages.24

Whil w trnbright yong

Atralian awayfrom mdical

cor, w havto bring thoand

of ovra-traind doctorto Atralia tofill workforc

hortag

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

Applican

ts

Engineering

Dental

Medicine

Nursing

Other health

Vet. science


11/16

Issue Analysis 11

Tabl 7: Applicant with eNTeR of 90.05+ rciving offr (%)

2005 2006

Dntal 71 63

Mdicin 48 59

Othr halth 91 96

Vtrinary cinc 29 56

Source:AustralianVice-ChancellorsCommittee,Report on Applications or Undergraduate UniversityCourses,2005and2006.

We know rom the applications statistics that there was demand or additionalplaces.Butwoulduniversitieshaverespondedwithappropriatesupply?Theysaythattheyareunder-unded,whichwouldsuggestthatcurrentincomeperstudentistoolowtoencourageexpansion.Yet theirbehaviourcallsthis intoquestion,with theederalgovernmentsuccessullyallocatingallthenewCommonwealth-supportedplacesithasannouncedinrecentyears.ItispossiblethatwhattheCommonwealthpaysissufcienttocoverthemarginalcostoaddingtherelativelysmallnumbersonewCommonwealth-supportedplaces,eveniitdoesnotcoverthefxedcoststhattheuniversitymustspreadacrossstudents,suchasbuildings,librariesandadministrators.Thederegulatedpartothehighereducationsectorprovidesclearerevidenceowhat

happenswhenuniversitiescandecidebothpricesandplacesinthemarket.Inthetwolargelyderegulatedmarkets,overseasstudentsandpostgraduatecourseworkstudents,andthelimitedmarketindomesticundergraduateull-eestudents(limitedto35%oAustralianenrolmentsinaparticularcourse,butwithnopricecontrol),wehaveseendouble-digitgrowthratesinmostyears.Full-eepayingoverseasstudentsoccupiedmorethan172,000placesinAustralianuniversitiesin2005including12,000inengineering-

relatedcoursesand9,000inhealth-relatedcourses.25Indeed,allowingsomeoverseasstudentstoremaininAustraliaatercompletingtheircoursespreventedlabourmarket

shortagesbeingevenmoreseverethantheyinactwere.Thehistoricalevidencesuggeststhatiwealreadyhadamarketsystemwewouldbe

inabetterpositionthanwearenowin.Wehaduniversitieswillingtooermoreplaces.Wehadstudentswillingtotaketheplaces.Wehademployerswillingtoemploythosestudentswhentheyfnished.Whatwedidnthavewasgovernmentpolicythatletthethreepartiesconnect.

evn mor ovr-qalifid workr?

Thoughthereisdemandoruniversityplacesthatneedsmeeting,wouldabolishinglegallimitsonuniversityenrolmentleadtouniversitiesacceptingallwhoapply,withtheconsequentriskoevenmoreover-educatedworkers?

Thescopeorsuchanincreaseseemslimited.Thoughtheannualnumberoapplicantsnotsecuringaplacemovesaroundromyeartoyear,itisrarelylargeincomparisontototalenrolments.In2006,theAVCCestimatedthat14,200eligibleapplicantsmissedoutonanoer,downrom36,100in2004.Eitherfgureindicatesthatthoughthesystemmisallocatesplaces,ewacademicallycredibleapplicantsmissout.For2004,ialltheseapplicantshadenrolleddomesticstudentnumberswouldhaveincreasedby5.5%;in2006theincreasewouldhavebeen2.1%.Thenumbersarekeptincheckbyexistingsel-regulatingaspectsouniversity

enrolmentlevelsthatreducetheneedorormalquantitativerestrictions.Manyuniversitieswillnottakestudentswithoutprioracademicachievementlevelswell-abovewhattheAVCCclassifesaseligible.Forsomeinstitutions,thisisamatteroprestige,butthere

aresoundpracticalreasonsaswell.Teachingismoredifcultinclasseswithawiderangeoabilities;runningtheriskoboringthestrongstudentsorconusingtheweakstudents.

Th hitoricalvidnc ggtthat if w alradyhad a marktytm w woldb in a bttrpoition than w

ar now in


12/16

12 Issue Analysis

Forweakerapplicants,thereareethicalconsiderationsinvolvedinconsideringwhetherornottoacceptthem.Thoughmoreresearchisneededonthissubject,publishedstudiessuggestthatenrolledweakapplicantsonaveragereceivelowgradesandaremorelikely

toail.26Theyarealsolesslikelytocompletetheircourses.27Justasdoctorsshouldnotprovidepatientswithunnecessarytreatments,universitiesshouldeitherrejectweakapplicantsorprovidehonestadviceastotheirchancesosuccess.Onthestudentside,thereisapparentawarenessothelinksbetweenschoolresults

andsubsequentperormanceatuniversity.TheAVCCsstatisticsshowthatwhilemorethan90%oschoolleaverswith90+ENTERranksapply,thatdropstothree-quartersorthosewithranksbetween60and70,andtobelow50%orstudentswithranksintherangeregardedasnoteligible.Evenamongthosewhoareoeredaplacemanydonotaccept,suggestingthattheapplicationwasameansokeepingtheiroptionsopenratherthanindicatingastrongpreerenceorauniversityeducation.Therearealsootherdisincentivestostudy,suchastuitionchargesplustheopportunitycostobeingoutotheull-timeworkorceorthreeormoreyears.Whiletheseexpensesarenotlargecomparedtothelietimeincomeopeoplewhosecuregraduatejobs,orthosewithdoubtsabouttheiremploymentprospectstheycould(andshould)promptcareulreectionaboutwhetherornotattendinguniversityisagoodidea.

Theeectsoamarketsystemarelesslikelytobeonthetotalnumberostudentsthanonwhatandwheretheystudy.IntheAVCCsanalysisostudentdemand,thenaturalandphysicalsciencesregularlyreportmoreoersthanfrst-preerenceapplicants.Inotherwords,applicantsareoeredplacesinscienceastheirsecondorlowerpreerence.Giventhestrongscientifcbaseomosthealth-relatedcourses,someotheirunsuccessulapplicantsendupinsciencedegreesinstead.Withamarketcorrectionextraplacesinhealth-relatedcourses,ewerplacesinsciencecoursesmoregraduateswouldhavevirtuallycertainemploymentinthehealthsector.Australiacoulddrawlessontheinternationallabourmarketorhealthproessionals,andmoreonthelocalpoolopeoplewithscience-related

interestswhomaycurrentlybestrugglingtofndworkwithintheirfeld.28

Th qity agndaLettingthehighereducationmarketsetthenumberostudentplaceswouldendpolicy-imposedlimitsonuniversityaccessorpeopleromlow-incomebackgrounds.Yetthisdoesnotmeanthatuniversitieswouldtakeasignifcantlylargernumberostudentsromthesebackgrounds,orthatpolicymakersshouldalwaysencouragethemtodoso.Formidableobstaclesremaininimplementingtheequityagenda,becausetheconsiderationsdiscussedintheprevioussectiondisproportionatelyapplytoequitystudents.RecentresearchconfrmsthatbyYear12themajorreasonorsocio-economic

dierencesinuniversityattendancerates isschoolresults.Fora givenENTERrank,peopleromhighandlowsocio-economicstatus(SES)groupsproceedtouniversityatthesamerates.Thedierencebetweenthetwogroupsisnottheirresponsiveness

totuitioncharges,but theirENTERranks.29A2003analysisoVictorianYear12universityapplicantsoundthatprivateschoolsdominatedtheupper-levelschoolresults.Independentschoolsprovided23%oapplicants,but47%othosewithanENTERo90orabove.Governmentschoolsprovided53%oapplicants,but35%othe90andabovegroup.OnlyamongapplicantswithanENTERo69.95orbelowdidgovernment

schoolsprovideapplicantsatorabovetheirshareothetotalapplicantpool.30Givenlacklustreschoolperormance,equityintakescanonlyincreasesignifcantlybyenrollinglowly-rankedapplicants.Sinceweakschoolresultsareassociatedwithlowacademicgradesatuniversity,notallorevenmanywouldbeacceptedbyuniversities.Forthosewhoareacceptedandcompletetheircourses,weknowlittleinAustralia

abouttheirlong-termoutcomes.Americanresearchfndspositivethoughgenerallysmall

correlationsbetweenacademic gradesandoccupational success.31

Britishresearchonoutcomesorgraduatesromtheir1990shighereducationexpansionoundthatbetter

Th ffct of amarkt ytm arl likly to b on

th total nmbr oftdnt than onwhat and whr

thy tdy


13/16

Issue Analysis 13

schoolcredentialsreducedtheprobabilityobeingover-educatedintheworkplace,butthatacademicskillswereomarginalimportance.Themainprotectorsagainstgraduatesbeingover-educatedortheirjobwereparticulardisciplines(maths,medicine,engineering,

education)andpossessingentrepreneurial,managementandleadershipskills. 32Broadlabourmarketresearchsuggeststhatnon-academicactorsgenerallyexplainthelarge

outcomedierencesbetweenpeoplewithsimilarormalqualifcations.33Arecent

Australiansurveyograduateemployersoundthatinterpersonalandcommunicationskills,ratherthanacademicqualifcations,weretheir topselectioncriteria.34ThoughwedontknowhowlowSESstudentsrateonthesenon-academicattributesemployersavour,graduateswhoseparentsalreadyworkasmanagersandproessionalshavemoreopportunitytolearnwhatisexpected.Beoreadvocatinganequity-motivatedexpansion,weneedtoknowwhetherormerlowSESstudentsareover-representedamongtheoneinfvedegreeholderswithoutworkmatchingtheirormalqualifcations.Whatiweareprovidingthemnotwithpathstofnanciallyandpersonallyrewardingcareers,butexpensivedetoursontheirwaytojobstheycouldhavehadwithoutspendingthreeyearsatuniversity?

Conclion

Fordecades,theAustralianhighereducationpolicycommunityhassaidthatmorepeopleshouldgotouniversity.Themostradicalrecentproposalswouldistudentscouldbeoundtoflltheplaces,whichisarromcertaindoublethelevelsachievedaterthelastgreatexpansionthatbeganinthelate1980s.Inthelabourmarket,however,thereareclearwarningsignsthanthismightnotbeagoodidea.DespitethelongestperiodoeconomicgrowthinAustraliashistory,andlong-termstructuralchangesintheeconomythatavouruniversity-qualifedworkers,thenumberograduatesinjobsthatrequirelowerskilllevelscontinuestogrow.Forsomegraduates,skillunder-utilisationistemporary.Everyyearmanyjobsopen

inmanagerial,proessionalandassociateproessionaloccupations,andgraduatesbecomemorelikelytoholdtosecureappropriateemploymentastheygetolder.Yetorsomegraduatesover-educationpersists,withnegativeconsequencesortheirlietimeearnings

andoverallworksatisaction.35Weneedtoknowmoreabouthowmuchdisciplinestudied,gradesreceived,anduniversityattendedinuence graduatesemployment

opportunities.36Untilweacquirethisinormation,designingeectiveequitypolicieswillremaindifcult.Thehighereducationpolicycommunityshouldbemorecautiousthanitisaboutexpandinghighereducationinthenameoequity.Thoughthecaseorencouragingmoreuniversityattendanceoverallisweak,insome

occupationsthereareshortages.Thehealthproessioninparticularischronicallyunder-suppliedwithgraduates.Thisactaloneshouldseriouslyundermineconfdenceinourcentralisedsystemoallocatinguniversityplaces.Thisisanindustryinwhichpopulationageingmadeanincreaseindemandrelativelyeasytopredict.Yethealthworkorceplanning

wasseriouslybungled,leavingwidespreadskillsshortagesdespiteextensiverecruitmentromoverseas.Asthedemandstatisticsreportedaboveshow,simplyleavingit tothemarketwouldhaveproducedabetterresult.Giventheinherentuncertaintiesotheuturelabourmarket,nomethodosetting

thenumberouniversitystudentscanguaranteethatgraduateswillpreciselymatchjobs.Butourcurrentsystem,withouteithermarketguidanceorinormedcentralplanning,istheworstotheavailableoptions.Ithasproducedamajormismatchbetweenavailablegraduatesandjobs,andwithoutradicalreormwillcontinuetodoso.

Or crrntytm, withotithr marktgidanc orinformd cntralplanning, i th

wort of thavailabl option


14/16

14 Issue Analysis

endnot1JacintaAllan,Thousandstogetuni oers/thousandstomissout,mediarelease16January2007;CraigEmerson,Vital Signs, Vibrant Society(Sydney:UNSWPress,2006),pp115-121,also Expanding opportunityor thewelare state, speechtoTheCentre orIndependentStudies,5October2006;seealsohiscommentsand statisticsreported inPatriciaKarvelas,JobqualifcationsdeyPMlineondegrees, The Australian,4January2007;BobBirrell,DanielEdwards,IanDobsonandTFredSmith,TheMythoTooManyUniversityStudents,

People and Place13:1(2005);DanielEdwards,BobBirrellandTFredSmith,Unequal Access toUniversity Places: Revisiting Entry to Tertiary Education (Melbourne:CentreorPopulationandUrbanResearch,MonashUnversity,2005);BobBirrellandVirginiaRapson,Clearing the Myths

Away: Higher Educations Place in Meeting Workorce Demands(Sydney:DusseldorpSkillsForum,2006);BobBirrellandDanielEdwards,Squanderingouryoungspotential,The Australian,28February2007;CatherineArmitageandLisaMacnamara,Noroomatunis,VCssay,The

Australian,28February2007;AustralianVice-ChancellorsCommittee,Ensuringairaccessthroughmeetingdemand,electionstatement2004;AustralianBureauoStatistics,Educationand Work 2006,Cat.No.6227.0(Canberra:ABS,2006),table7.

2BirrellandRapson,Clearing the Myths Away,especiallypp2,10,12.3JohnDawkins,Higher Education: A policy discussion paper(Canberra:AustralianGovernmentPublishingService,1987),p2.

4

ACCC,Ensuringairaccessthroughmeetingdemand,p2;Edwards,BirrellandSmith,UnequalAccess to University Places,pp5861.

5ForadiscussionotheseissuesseemyThe Unchained University(Sydney:CIS,2002),especiallychs6and8.FortheviewsoKevinRuddandJuliaGillard,seehttp://andrewnorton.ino/blog/2006/12/06/whitlamite-nostalgia-in-higher-education/.

6BirrellandRapson,Clearing the Myths Away,p12.7InKarvelas,JobqualifcationsdeyPMlineondegrees,seenote1.8DepartmentoEmploymentandWorkplaceRelations,Workorce Tomorrow: Adapting to a more

diverse Australian labour market(Canberra:DEWR,2005),pp345.9SeeAustralianBureauoStatistics,Australian Standard Classifcation o Occupations, 2nded(Canberra:ABS,1997),pp61,103,229.Forasummary,andinormationabouttheassociateproessionalcategorybeingphasedout,seehttp://andrewnorton.ino/blog/2007/01/15/the-rise-o-a-actoid/.

10Somechangesareduetooccupationalreclassifcation.Managersosmallsalesandservicesorganisationshavebeenreclassifedrommanagerstoassociateproessionals.Registerednurses(whotypicallyhavedegrees,asopposedtoenrollednurseswhohaveavocationalsectorqualifcation)havebeenmovedromtheassociateproessionalto theproessionalcategory:ABS,Australian Standard Classifcation o Occupations,p18.

11ThenumbercanalsobecalculatedromanotherABSsurvey,Education and Training Experience,Cat6278.0.Thetwosurveys,whichhavesimilarbutnotidenticaltimingandsamples,arriveatverysimilarresultsorthepurposesothisanalysis.Forexamplein2005,thelastyearorwhichbothsurveysareavailable,Education and Training Experiencerecorded415,700employedgraduatesnotinappropriateworkwhileEducation and Workrecorded422,700.However,theydiersignifcantlyinthetotalnumberobachelordegreeholderscomparedtopersonsholdinggraduatecertifcatesorabove.ComparisonwiththeAustralianElectionStudyandtheAustralian

SurveyoSocialAttitudessuggeststhatEducation and Training Experiencemayhavethemoreaccurateclassifcations,aconclusionthatwillneedtobecheckedagainst2006censusdatawhenitbecomesavailable.IhaveusedEducation and Workbecausethissurveyhasbeencarriedoutannuallyonareasonablyconsistentbasisoralongperiodotime.

12Incalculatingthisfgure,Ihavecountedassociateproessionalasagraduatequalifcation.This isnot inconsistentwithearlier criticisms,asmyrevisedestimateso theproportionojobsrequiringdegreesalsoassumesthatgraduatesinassociateproessionaljobsareappropriatelyqualifed.Occupationsclassedasassociateproessionalincludespoliceofcers,medicaltechnicalofcersandcomputingsupporttechnicians.Inpractice,degreesareotennowrequiredoradvancementinthepoliceorce,anditisnotimplausibletothinkthattheoccupationsmentionedandothersintheassociateproessionalcategorycouldbeneftromahighereducationqualifcation.Howtoclassiyover-educationisavexedoneintheliterature

(seeSeamusMcGuinness,Overeducationinthelabourmarket,Journal o Economic Surveys,20:3(2006))withbothobjectivejobclassifcationandsubjectiveemployeesel-assessmentbeingused.Thecompatibilityotheobjectivefgure1fgureswiththesubjectivetable4fgures


15/16

Issue Analysis 15

supportsthisclassifcationoassociateproessionals.Iassociateproessionalswereclassifedasnon-graduate,32%ograduateswouldbeclassedasover-educated.

13Achangeinwordingbetweenthetwosurveyspossiblyexplainsthedierentbreakdownbetweendisagreeandneither.Thelaterquestionreerredtoachancetouseabilitiesorqualifcations,reducingdisagreeresponsesandincreasingneitheranswers.Thismayreectjobsthatsometimesutilisetherespondentsskills,butgenerallydonot.

14MDREvansandJonathanKelley,Australian Economy and Society 2001: Education, Work and

Welare(Sydney:FederationPress,2002),p25.15AustralianBureauoStatistics,Job Search Experience2006,Cat.No.6222.0(Canberra:ABS,2006),table11.

16McGuinness,Overeducationinthelabourmarket,p412;ArnaudChevalierandJoanneLindley,Over-educationandtheskillsoUKgraduates,InstituteortheStudyoLabor,DiscussionPaperNo2442,November2006,p5.

17ABS,Education and Work 2006,table12.18DEST,Students 2005: Selected higher education statistics (Canberra:DEST,2006),appendix2.2.

19StevenKennedyandDavidHedley,Educationalattainmentandlabourorceparticipation,Economic Roundup(Winter2003).

20DEST,Students 2005: Selected higher education statistics (Canberra:DEST,2006),appendix2.3.Engineeringcompletionsdeclinedrom5.79%in1995to5.06%in2004;healthrom

14.81%in1995to13.69%in2004.21Forexamplesothemicro-allocationsoplaces,seeJulieBishop,Studentstobeneftrommorethan4600newplaces,mediarelease,24July2006.In2006,sevenuniversitiescouldnotfllalltheirplacesdespiteoverallunmetdemandorplaces.Whetherthesewereormicro-allocatednewplaceshasnotbeenrevealed,butithighlightsthesystemsinexibility.

22Ina2004Newspoll,the88%opeoplewhonominatededucationassomethingthegovernmentshouldbegivingmoreattentiontoanddoingmoreaboutwereaskedaboutthereasonsortheiranswer.Just8%gavehighereducationrelatedanswers.Inasupplementaryquestionaskingwhichopre-schools,schools,TAFEsoruniversitieswasmostimportantorgovernmenttogivemoreattentiontoordomoreabout,15%nominateduniversities:DusseldorpSkillsForum/Newspoll,Opportunities or Youth Study(Sydney,Newspoll,2004).

23Fordemand-drivenproposalssee ormerEducationMinisterDrDavidKempsailed1999

Cabinetproposal,publishedinSenateEmployment,WorkplaceRelations,SmallBusinessandEducationReerencesCommittee,Universities in Crisis: Report on Higher Education(Canberra:TheSenate,2001);DepartmentoEducation,TrainingandYouthAairs,Learning or Lie:Review o Higher Education Financing and Policy(Canberra:DETYA,1998),andNorton,TheUnchained University.

24Fromthemid-1990s,Australiasnetimportationomedicalpractitionershasaveragednearly1,000ayear:BobBirrell,VirginiaRapsonandTFredSmith, Australias Net Gains

rom International Skilled Movement(MonashUniversity/DepartmentoImmigrationandMulticulturalAairs,2006).

25DEST,Students 2005: Selected higher education statistics(Canberra:DEST,2006),table3.5.3.26ForexampleMichaelMurphy,KyriPapanicolaouandRoniMcDowell,EntryScoreandPerormance:AThreeYearStudyoSuccess,Journal o Institutional Research(October2001);

RosemaryWinandPaulWMiller,TheEectsoIndividualandSchoolFactorsonUniversityStudentsAcademicPerormance,The Australian Economic Review38:1(2005).27MarkUrbanetal.,Completions: Undergraduate academic outcomes or 1992 commencing students(Canberra:DEST,1999),p39.

28SeeDepartmentoEducation,ScienceandTraining,Audit o science, engineering and technologyskills(Canberra:DEST,2006),table4.1.

29BulyA.CardakandChrisRyan,Whyarehighabilityindividualsrompoorbackgroundsunder-representedatuniversity?,LaTrobeUniversitySchooloBusinessDiscussionPapersNo.A06.04,June2006.

30Edwards,Birrell,andSmith,Unequal Access to University Places,p11.31ErnestTPascarellaandPatrickTTerenzini,How College Aects Students: A Third Decade o

Research(SanFrancisco:Jolley-Bass,2005),pp51112.32ChevalierandLindley,Over-educationandtheskillsoUKgraduates.However,an earlier

studyoundthatthosewithbettergradeswerelesslikelytobemismatched,ParvinderKler,GraduateOvereducation inAustralia:A ComparisonoMeanandObjectiveMethods,


16/16

Isse Anasis (ISSN:1440 6306) is a regar series pbished b The Centre for Independent Stdies, eaating pbicisses and Goernent poicies and offering proposas for refor. views epressed are those of the athors and do notnecessari refect the iews of the Centres staff, adisors, directors or officers. Isse Anasis papers (incding backisses) can be prchased fro CIS for $5.50 each (ps postage) or can be downoaded free fro www.ci.org.a.

Education EconomicsVol13No1(March2005),p50.33For aninteresting survey, seeSamuelBowles,HerbertGintis andMelissaOsborne,TheDeterminantsoEarnings:ABehavioralApproach,Journal o Economic Literature24(December

2001).34GraduateOutlook2006:asnapshot,Graduate Grapevine,December2006.35ParvinderKler,TheimpactoovereducationonjobsatisactionamongtertiaryeducatedAustralians,DepartmentoEconomics,UniversityoQueensland.

36ThereissomeinormationonthesemattersintheGraduateDestinationSurvey,carriedoutaewmonthsatercoursecompletion.At thispoint,signifcantproportionsograduatesinscience,business,artsandlawareinoccupationsclassifedasrequiringlesserqualifcations.However,additionalanalysisshowsthatorbusinessandlawgraduatesmostareemployedinindustriesappropriatetotheircourse.Forexample,lawgraduatesworkingaslawclerks.Theywould appear to be in paths thatwould enable transition to appropriateoccupations. Forscienceandartsgraduates,majoritiesarenotonobviouspathstoappropriateemployment.SeeGraduateCareersAustralia,Graduate Destinations 2005(Melbourne:GCA,2006),especially

tables19and20.

Documents

Education Mismatch in Australia