Education and the ‘Baby Boom’ in Northern Ireland

Patrick McGregor Patricia McKee

NILS022: “Predicting Short Run Changes in Fertility in Northern Ireland”

a project funded by

The authors are grateful to the NILS teams at NISRA for their assistance

Attesting to the Potential of the NILS

NILSRF 11 March 2011

2

Education and the ‘baby boom’ in Northern Ireland

• Overview• Education and fertility• The NILS• The data• The statistical model• Results• Conclusion

3

Total Births

Age Specific Fertility Rates

Fertility in Northern Ireland

0

50

100

150

200

1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008

Ag

e-sp

ecif

ic f

erti

lity

rate

15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44

21,000

23,000

25,000

27,000

29,000

1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008

Year

Bir

ths

re

gis

tere

d

Education and fertility 4

Education and fertility

Static economic analysis

Children assumed to be normal ‘goods’ and the decline in fertility with income explained by child ‘quality’: the income elasticity of quality (+ve) being greater than the income elasticity of quantity (-ve).

The home production framework allows the cost of children to be expressed as a function of the parents’ wages and their respective shares in the costs of producing child quality

Education and fertility 5

Dynamic economic analysis The ‘user cost’ of a child now is a function of a

sequence of prices such as the female wage rate

The optimal profile of a woman’s stock of human capital will be jointly determined with the timing of the births of her children.

Any empirical analysis should permit the demographic profile to vary with educational attainment

The data 6

Level 0: No qualifications

Level 1: GCSE grade D-G; 1-4 CSEs grade 1;1-4 ‘O’ level passes; NVQ level 1

Level 2: 5+ CSEs grade 1; 5+ GCSEs grade A-C;5+ ‘O’ level passes; NVQ level 2

Level 3: 2+ ‘A’ levels; 4+ AS levels; NVQ level 3 or GNVQ Advanced

Level 4: First degree; NVQ level 4; HNC ; HND

Level 5: Higher degree; NVQ level 5 Source: 2001 Census

% Women by Education Level in Year they were 24

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

%

Levels 0 and 1 Levels 2 and 3 Levels 4 and 5

The data 7

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007

Year

Gro

ss

We

ek

ly p

ay

(£

)

63.0

64.0

65.0

66.0

67.0

68.0

Act

ivit

y R

ate

Q1 median Q3 Activity Rate

Women in the Labour Market

Source: DETINI

The NILS 8

The NILS

• The NILS potential mothers: those women with health card registrations, aged 16-44 years and whose DOB is one of the 104 in the systematic sample

• Registrations downloaded biannually and constitute potential panel members

• Details of any birth to a NILS mother are forwarded by the GRO to the NILS

• 2001 Census: An attempt is made to link the Census details of all NILS mothers

The data 9

Sources of Information available for the NILS

Fertility Panel

101

Census 91

4,653

7,019

Census 01

GRO

BSO

61,263

24,041

32,960

530

26,710

The data 10

Sources of Parity in the Fertility Panel

Parity from Freq. PercentCensus - offspring 116,327 74.0GRO births 10,141 6.591 census 6,432 4.1Count births 97-01 178 0.1Census + n of births 158 0.1Missing 24,041 15.3

Total Women 157,277 100.0

The data 11

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

20 25 30 35 40 45

c58t62

c63t67

c68t72

c73t77

c78t82

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

20 25 30 35 40 45

c58t62h

c63t67h

c68t72h

c73t77h

c78t82h

c58t62m

c63t67m

c68t72m

c73t77m

c78t82m

c58t62l

c63t67l

c68t72l

c73t77l

c78t82l

L01

L45L23

Parity by Age and Education for the Fertility Panel

The Statistical Model 12

The Logit Model

iiiii

iiiiii

NSINTERACTIOEDUCATIONLOCALITYRELIGION

COHORTPERIODDURATIONPARITYAGEB

6876

543210*

0*0

0*1

ii

ii

BifB

BifB

Variables AGE to COHORT are interacted with EDUCATION to allow demographic profile to vary with educational attainment

Model estimated 2001 – 2007 for women aged 24 to 44 years old

PERIOD dummies take account of economic fluctuations

COHORT dummies take account of tempo and quantum changes

Results 13

RESULTS

variable All L01 L45

Age Parity Par01

Duration Period

Cohort C83t87

Locality Not included Not included

Religion Not included Not included

Education L01, PL45 Not included Not included

Constant

Results 14

Contibution of change in fertility

-0.16

-0.14

-0.12

-0.10

-0.08

-0.06

-0.04

-0.02

0.00

0.02

02 03 04 05 06 07

births level 0/1 level 2/3 level 4/5

Contribution of change in number of women

-0.16

-0.14

-0.12

-0.10

-0.08

-0.06

-0.04

-0.02

0.00

0.02

02 03 04 05 06 07

births level 0/1 level 2/3 level 4/5

The Decomposition of the Change in Births 2001/2 to 2006/7 for the 1957-1977 Cohort