Education and Fertility in Bangladesh:Education and Fertility in Bangladesh:Future Prospects and the Role ofFuture Prospects and the Role of

Family Planning ServicesFamily Planning Services

Mizanur RahmanMizanur RahmanPathfinder InternationalPathfinder International

Julie DaVanzoJulie DaVanzoRANDRAND

Abdur RazzaqueAbdur RazzaqueICDDR,B: Centre for Health and Population ResearchICDDR,B: Centre for Health and Population Research

November 2002November 2002

Since Its 1971 Independence, Since Its 1971 Independence, Bangladesh Has Sought to Control Its Bangladesh Has Sought to Control Its

Population GrowthPopulation Growth

• With a small geographic area but a large With a small geographic area but a large population, Bangladesh has had a strong population, Bangladesh has had a strong political commitment to limit its growthpolitical commitment to limit its growth

• Total fertility rates (TFRs) declined from Total fertility rates (TFRs) declined from more than 6 children per women in the more than 6 children per women in the early 1970s to less than 5 in the mid-1980searly 1970s to less than 5 in the mid-1980s

• The Bangladesh TFR declined to less than The Bangladesh TFR declined to less than 3.5 children in the early 1990s, but has 3.5 children in the early 1990s, but has changed little sincechanged little since

When is Bangladesh Likely to Reach When is Bangladesh Likely to Reach Replacement-level Fertility?Replacement-level Fertility?

• Are there socioeconomic subgroups in Are there socioeconomic subgroups in Bangladesh that already have replacement-level Bangladesh that already have replacement-level fertility?fertility?

• How does couples’ “wanted fertility” compare How does couples’ “wanted fertility” compare to the number of children that they are likely to to the number of children that they are likely to have?have?

• How does fertility in an area with better family How does fertility in an area with better family planning services compare to that in an planning services compare to that in an otherwise-similar area with standard otherwise-similar area with standard government services? government services?

BDHS and Matlab DSS Provide Data on BDHS and Matlab DSS Provide Data on Education and FertilityEducation and Fertility

• Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey (BDHS) has data on 10,544 women(BDHS) has data on 10,544 women– BDHS data are representative of whole country BDHS data are representative of whole country – BDHS includes data on education as well as actual BDHS includes data on education as well as actual

and wanted fertilityand wanted fertility

• Matlab Demographic Surveillance System Matlab Demographic Surveillance System (DSS) includes data on region typical of rural (DSS) includes data on region typical of rural BangladeshBangladesh– DSS includes data on education and fertilityDSS includes data on education and fertility– DSS allows comparisons of otherwise similar areas DSS allows comparisons of otherwise similar areas

that differ in accessibility and quality of family that differ in accessibility and quality of family planning servicesplanning services

Bangladeshi Women of Secondary or Bangladeshi Women of Secondary or Higher Education Have Achieved Higher Education Have Achieved Fertility Near Replacement LevelsFertility Near Replacement Levels

00

11

22

33

44

NoneNone IncompleteIncompletePrimaryPrimary

CompleteCompletePrimaryPrimary

SecondarySecondary

EducationEducation

Number of births per woman (TFR)Number of births per woman (TFR)

Source: BDHS 1997-2000Source: BDHS 1997-2000

Bangladeshi Women of All Educational Levels Bangladeshi Women of All Educational Levels Desire Still Lower Fertility RatesDesire Still Lower Fertility Rates

00

11

22

33

44

55

NoneNone PrimaryPrimaryincompleteincomplete

Primary completePrimary complete SecondarySecondary

EducationEducation

Total fertility rateTotal fertility rateTotal wanted fertility rateTotal wanted fertility rate

Source: BDHS 1999-2000Source: BDHS 1999-2000

Children per womanChildren per woman

Fertility Rates Have Declined in Both Fertility Rates Have Declined in Both Areas But Are Lower in MCH-FP AreaAreas But Are Lower in MCH-FP Area

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998

Comparison

MCH-FP

Number of births per woman (TFR)Number of births per woman (TFR)

Source: Matlab DSS, 1978-1999Source: Matlab DSS, 1978-1999

Women With Higher Education and Women With Higher Education and Better Family Planning Services Have Better Family Planning Services Have

Fertility Near Replacement LevelsFertility Near Replacement Levels

00

11

22

33

44

NoneNone PrimaryPrimary Lower SecondaryLower Secondary Upper SecondaryUpper Secondary

EducationEducation

ComparisonComparisonMCH-FPMCH-FP

Number of births per woman (TFR)Number of births per woman (TFR)

Source: Matlab DSS, 1995-2000Source: Matlab DSS, 1995-2000

The Percent of Persons, Especially Women, The Percent of Persons, Especially Women, With At Least Some Education Has IncreasedWith At Least Some Education Has Increased

0%0%

10%10%

20%20%

30%30%

40%40%

50%50%

60%60%

70%70%

80%80%

90%90%

100%100%

40-4440-44 45-4945-49 50-5450-54 55-5955-59 60-6460-64 65-6965-69 70-7470-74 75-7975-79 80-8480-84 85-8985-89

Year of birthYear of birth

MalesMales

FemalesFemales

Percent with at least one year of schoolPercent with at least one year of school

Source: BDHS, 1999-2000Source: BDHS, 1999-2000

Secondary Education for WomenSecondary Education for WomenHas Increased Greatly As WellHas Increased Greatly As Well

0%0%

10%10%

20%20%

30%30%

40%40%

50%50%

60%60%

40-4440-44 45-4945-49 50-5450-54 55-5955-59 60-6460-64 65-6965-69 70-7470-74 75-7975-79 80-8480-84

Year of birthYear of birth

MalesMales

FemalesFemales

Percent with 6+ years of schoolPercent with 6+ years of school

Source: BDHS, 1999-2000Source: BDHS, 1999-2000

Socioeconomic Differences inSocioeconomic Differences inEducation Are Decreasing . . . Education Are Decreasing . . .

0%0%

10%10%

20%20%

30%30%

40%40%

50%50%

60%60%

70%70%

80%80%

90%90%

100%100%

45-4945-49 50-5450-54 55-5955-59 60-6460-64 65-6965-69 70-7470-74 75-7975-79

Year of birthYear of birth

HighHigh

MiddleMiddle

LowLow

Women with at least one year of school, Matlab comparison areaWomen with at least one year of school, Matlab comparison area

Source: Matlab DSS 1995-98Source: Matlab DSS 1995-98 *defined by housing space*defined by housing space

Socioeconomic* position:

. . . But Remain Large for. . . But Remain Large forSecondary EducationSecondary Education

0%0%

10%10%

20%20%

30%30%

40%40%

50%50%

60%60%

70%70%

45-4945-49 50-5450-54 55-5955-59 60-6460-64 65-6965-69 70-7470-74 75-7975-79

Year of birthYear of birth

HighHigh

MiddleMiddle

LowLow

Women with at least six years of school, Matlab comparison areaWomen with at least six years of school, Matlab comparison area

Source: Matlab DSS 1995-98Source: Matlab DSS 1995-98 *defined by housing space*defined by housing space

Socioeconomic* position:

Education and Fertility in Bangladesh Education and Fertility in Bangladesh Are Strongly RelatedAre Strongly Related

• Education is increasing for Bangladeshi womenEducation is increasing for Bangladeshi women

• More educated women in Bangladesh desire More educated women in Bangladesh desire smaller familiessmaller families

• Such women have achieved lower fertility rates by Such women have achieved lower fertility rates by taking advantage of family planning servicestaking advantage of family planning services

• Increasing education levels could therefore help Increasing education levels could therefore help Bangladesh achieve replacement-level fertilityBangladesh achieve replacement-level fertility

Education and Family Planning Can Help Education and Family Planning Can Help Bangladeshi Women AchieveBangladeshi Women AchieveReplacement-Level FertilityReplacement-Level Fertility

• Across Bangladesh, women of secondary education Across Bangladesh, women of secondary education (6+ yrs. schooling) have nearly achieved replacement-(6+ yrs. schooling) have nearly achieved replacement-level fertilitylevel fertility

• In rural Bangladesh, higher educational levels (10+ In rural Bangladesh, higher educational levels (10+ years) and better family planning services are needed years) and better family planning services are needed to reduce fertility to replacement levelto reduce fertility to replacement level

• Wanted fertility rates are below actual fertility rates for Wanted fertility rates are below actual fertility rates for all women and at or below replacement level for all but all women and at or below replacement level for all but uneducated womenuneducated women

• Continued improvements in education and family Continued improvements in education and family planning will help Bangladesh achieve replacement-planning will help Bangladesh achieve replacement-level fertilitylevel fertility

If Present Trends Persist, Bangladesh May If Present Trends Persist, Bangladesh May Achieve Replacement-Level Fertility by 2025Achieve Replacement-Level Fertility by 2025

• Nearly all women now entering reproductive Nearly all women now entering reproductive age have at least some education; half have age have at least some education; half have some secondary educationsome secondary education

• By 2025, nearly all women will have at least By 2025, nearly all women will have at least some secondary educationsome secondary education

• Diffusion of desires for small families to those Diffusion of desires for small families to those of little or no education could hasten fertility of little or no education could hasten fertility transitiontransition

• Other social and economic changes may also Other social and economic changes may also hasten transitionhasten transition