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TRENDS ANALYSIS
Keeping independent schools informed,
open to change and sustainable.
.
ISASA REPORTERwww.isasa.org “TELLING IT LIKE IT IS” - Since 1999
Dr Jane HofmeyrISASA Executive Director
NEWS
Why we do this …
Sources
P.E.S.T.E. ANALYSISISASA scans the environment to increase our strategic intelligence: to anticipate challenges that will face us, improve our products and services, and enhance schools’ strategic thinking.
• Futurists and Trend Analysts• Government reports• Media• International research• Think tanks
April 2013
POLITICAL HEADLINES: GLOBAL
‘Achilles heel’: Inequality, systemic risk and shocks
“Integrated fragility” (Keith Coats)
April 2013
IMPACT OF GLOBALISATION
4 features:• more emphasis on
difference• more interdependence• accelerating, non-linear
change• emergence of increasingly
complex, heterogeneous societies
POLITICAL HEADLINES: GLOBAL
• Developing world: conflict & instability - Arab Spring to become hot African Summer?It is possible to imagine a perfect
political & social storm ripe for revolution. (Greg Mills)
• Eurozone crisis -political tensions
• Debate on role of state: globalisation, national governments and competing identities
• Emergence of ‘global elites’ above national laws
• Rampant inequalities• Chinese factor: vs US,
role in Africa
April 2013
POLITICAL HEADLINES: GLOBAL
YOUTHQUAKE
CIA World Factbook 201150,4% of world’s population below 30World median age 28.4; Africa 19.7 (SA 25 Census 2011)
April 2013
POLITICAL HEADLINES: GLOBAL
RAGE AND REVOLUTION
• Youth fuelling uprisings:All have the same demands: a right to choose and change their leaders, an end to rampant corruption, the opportunity for employment and improvement.
(Bobby Ghosh, TIME)
SA shares same characteristics as in Arab countries: abnormally high youth unemployment combined with active social networks & growing feeling of alienation from State by youth. (Clem Sunter)
April 2013
• Youth aspirations: security, jobs, modern lifestyle, education
• Sense of agency
POLITICAL HEADLINES
LOCAL ISSUES
• Mistrust of authority• Triple fault lines:
poverty, inequalityand unemployment
• Global perceptions: negative (dropped rating)
• Policy uncertainty: land reform, mining companies, attacks on Constitution
• Mangaung: Zumareturned, Ramaphosa in, Malema out, NDP endorsed
• Tensions in the Alliance • Weak governance:
patronage, careerism, corruption, lack of capacity
April 2013
POLITICAL HEADLINES: LOCAL
And the good news …
In South Africa the worst, like the best, never happens. (Jan Smuts, 1949)
SA is a real democracy with a progressive constitution, an independent judiciary and free media. Despite the dominance of a single party, there is no censorship, no vote-rigging and no suppression of debate in Parliament or the press. The democratic tools for holding leaders accountable are all in place - but they remain largely unused. (Ruchir Sharma: Morgan Stanley, 2012)
April 2013
POLITICAL HEADLINES: LOCAL
NDP: Roadmap to a better SA
Change is not what we read in plans & policies. Change occurs when people behave differently. (Trevor Manuel, 2012)
April 2013
• High-level objectives for 2030: eliminate poverty, reduce inequality
• Enabling milestones in raising living standards:increasing employment, raising income, increasing access to health care, improving quality of education• all children: 2 years pre-school, reading & writing in Grade 3• increased learner retention (to 90%• higher mathematics & literacy achievement• strengthened teacher training
• Critical actions: social compact, multi-pronged strategy
POLITICAL HEADLINES: LOCAL
Roles of Business and Civil Society?Positive: • “Lead SA”• Effective social action vs e-tolling and “Secrecy” Bill• Social action groups e.g. Section 27, Equal Education • Business finding its voice – questioning government
Negative:• Violent protests: Marikana, farm workers, Zamdela• Weakened NGO sector• Lack of visible business leadership• Boards & CEOs seen as self-interested, not
responsible citizens
April2013
ECONOMIC HEADLINES: GLOBAL
• Chinese growth: key economic driver butslower growth, can’t replace Europe & US demand, and in difficult transition from export to internal demand
SHIFT FROM NORTH & WEST TO SOUTH & EAST
• Eurozone & US: fragile financial systems, high debt, low growth, rising oil prices, high unemployment
• Emerging markets, espec. BRIC(S): rapid urbanisation, population growth more purchasing power butincome inequality and youth unemployment
April 2013
ECONOMIC HEADLINES: REGIONAL
AFRICA TO RIDE WAVE OF GROWTH?
• Sub-Saharan Africa’s economic growth faster than Brazil & India
• Huge potential: 60% world’s uncultivated arable land
• By 2050 Africa’s est. population (2bn) will be greater than India’s (1.6bn) & China’s (1.4bn)
BUT• Lingering conflicts
hinder growth: West and Central Africa
• Governments required to demonstrate commitment to democratic governance, transparency, accountability, poverty reduction & equitable distribution of wealth
April 2013
ECONOMIC HEADLINES: LOCAL
• Service delivery: 12 RDP houses built for every shack built
• Strong economic infrastructure & financial institutions
• Launching pad into Africa but ‘leakage’ to other countries
POSITIVE:• Economic growth
forecast 2.7%• Consumption-driven:
high public sector wages
• Growing black middle class
• More upwards social mobility
• Infrastructure investment
April 2013
Investments
Public vs private sector remuneration since 2008
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
08 09 10 11 12
Public sectorPrivate sectorTotal Employment
Real total wage bill: Index 2008=100
ECONOMIC HEADLINES: LOCAL
• High dependency on state – 30% pop. on social grants (16 million)
• Education system can’t provide skills to meet demand for tertiary-skilled workers
• Serious physical limits around energy, water and transport
• Need for more private-public sector trust and cooperation
NEGATIVE: • Foreign investment
affected by socio-political unrest, policy uncertainty, troubled labour relations
• Commodities demand but declining mining sector
• Change from primary, mining-based economy to a tertiary, hi-tech, service-based economy
• Credit growth relatively weak
April 2013
SOCIO-CULTURAL HEADLINES
IMPORTANCE OF SOCIAL CAPITALFinancial capital sits in the bank, human capital in skills and social capital in relations with others. (World Bank)
LACK OF SOCIAL COHESION• Social ‘pain’ (Dr Mamphela Ramphele, CM4SC):
- underestimated the extent of inherited chasm - unfinished business of the liberation of the psyche -
our “woundedness”
• Moral bankruptcy: crime, corruption, apathy, violence, aggression, acrimonious public discourse
April 2013
SOCIO-CULTURAL HEADLINES
MISSING IN ACTION: JOE CITIZEN? An active citizenry is the key to
making progress. Each person must think of themselves as the guardian of the Constitution and live its values … They must make others aware of their rights and they must hold those in public office accountable. (Dr Ramphele)
South Africans need to learn to be citizens of a constitutional democracy.
- growing gap between the 1994 vision and values of our Constitution and our personal and professional lives
(Ethics Institute of SA)
Where is our vibrant civic voice? Citizens must take SA back from the politicians.
(Brendan Boyle)
April 2013
ENVIRONMENTAL HEADLINES: GLOBAL
PLANET UNDER PRESSURE
April 2013
• Public/Private collaboration• Transparency• Global consistency• Mixed disciplines approach
Sustainable development trends:
Global Green Growth Forum 2013
Transition to green economy focussing on: Depletion of natural resources Climate changeGlobal poverty
Initiatives include:- reducing malnutrition- increasing crop yields- infectious disease
management- early warning systems for
natural disasters
ENVIRONMENTAL HEADLINES: LOCALApril 2013
• National Development Plan– economy unsustainably
resource intensive– strong environmental
prescripts• King III: SA is world leader in
integrated corporate reporting
• Collaboration in private sector: National Business Initiative
• Companies need to be ‘good citizens’
• Youth influence: ‘cool to be green’, vibrant & passionate, look for honesty & authenticity, want long-term social responsibility
• Demand for eco-superior products:eco-friendly andsuperior functionality, design and savings
TECHNOLOGY HEADLINES
Power of social media• Hyper-connected generation• Instant gratification wanted• Constant communication (FOMO)
Tech trends:• Portability: tablets and
smartphones• Touch and voice• Cashless society• Online learning• ‘Gamification’ of
education• BYOD (Bring Your Own Device)
• Smart TV using Apps• 3D computing• eBooks• Cloud computing
Facebook = world’s 3rd largest ‘country’; Jan 2013 6,1m FB
users in SA (80% mobile access)
April 2013
TECHNOLOGY HEADLINES
NETWORK OF KNOWLEDGE “Too big to know” • Over-abundance of
data
• Knowledge is ‘continuously public’
• Line blurs between professionals & amateurs
The last word is now never the last word.
(David Weinberger)
April 2013
• Digital media changing shape, evolution & perception of knowledge
• Knowledge networks lead to development of ideas by groups rather than individuals
• Networked expertise from large, diverse interactive groups – “crowd-sourcing”
There are no isolated ideas … there are only webs of ideas.
EDUCATION CHALLENGES: GLOBALApril 2013
In an environment of instant and infinite information … [students] need to move from being simply knowledgeable to being knowledge-able.
(Michael Wesch)
21st century competencies
5 C’s + 1: • Critical thinking • Creativity• Communication• Collaboration• Character + Cross-cultural skills
(Pat Bassett, NAIS)
EDUCATION HEADLINES: GLOBALApril 2013
• Education at forefront of political debate and reform• Centralised control vs school-level autonomy• Choice of types of public schools, e.g. charter
schools, academies, free schools• Greater accountability, mandatory national testing• Attention to under-performing schools and pupils• Growth of private schooling: branded chains of mid-
fee schools, private education for the poor (PEP)• School sustainability under stress: increasing
pressure on fees, declining top-level incomes, debt• Hyper-parenting or under-parenting
EDUCATION HEADLINES: GLOBALApril 2013
• Challenge of teacher training and quality • Pressure on teacher recruitment, retention, reward:
changing job attitudes, older retirement age, less security
• Instructional leadership essential• Ongoing curriculum change• Examinations reform: higher level cognitive demand• Huge advances in brain research about learning• Impact of social media/digital revolution on learning• Environmental ethic: how we treat others & the earth• ‘Design Thinking’ for pupils
EDUCATION CHALLENGES: GLOBALApril 2013
FORCES TRANSFORMING EDUCATION:• Teacher-centric to
learner-centric• Classroom-bound to
unbound• Mandated to
individualized learning• From consumer to
producer• Greater client power
brings more accountability (CfBT Trust)
The twilight of schooling as we know it is the prelude to the dawn of education as students need it.
(Pat Bassett, NAIS)
EDUCATION HEADLINESApril 2013
LEARNING ENVIRONMENT• Changing the conversation
from the device to learning: connecting devices to curriculum
• Blended learning: face-to-face with mediated online lessons
• Flipped classrooms: homework at school, instruction at home.
• Open-source materials • Teaming – collaborative, real-
world, team-oriented learning
Classifieds: Wanted
INDEPENDENT SCHOOLS: THE BASICS
The three R’s of a “value-related” strategy for independent schools
• Reinforcing the value proposition• Re-engineering financial models
- more efficient and sustainable- not the price-leader but the value-leader
• Remembering that “values are the value-add” of an independent school education
April 2013
“GOOD TO GREAT”
All good schools have the capacity to become great schools. All they need is the will and leadership, at all levels, to do so.
(Pat Bassett, NAIS)
April 2013
“Greatness” is built on a culture of discipline. (Jim Collins)
INDEPENDENT SCHOOLS: CHALLENGES
BECOMING GREAT:• Adopt a big vision and long horizon into the
community & world• Market the school with ‘sticky’ messages• Embrace stewardship of school, all resources, earth• Make data-rich decisions• Commit to diversity of all kinds & at all levels to
develop cross-cultural competencies• Manifest a coherent philosophy of learning• Experiment with schooling• Get best teachers and best out of teachers
April 2013
INDEPENDENT EDUCATION: LOCAL
• Public vs private education the issue
• More public support for IS• Complex government
relations • Increasingly disabling
policy environment –more governmental intrusion, accountability & compliance demands
• Increased competition:more IS & for-profit chains
• Inter-dependence of independent schools
• Changing demography: o school-age
population declining o urbanisation and
internal migrationo growing black
middle and upper classes
o foreign students
April 2013
INDEPENDENT EDUCATION: LOCALApril2013
CENSUS 2011• Population of SA: 51,8 million Young: 1/3 below 15 2001: over 4,8 million children 0–5;
2011: less than 4,6 million Marked decline of males and females
at ages 5–14
INDEPENDENT SCHOOL STRATEGIESApril 2013
• Refine your mission: clarify values, identify value-add, find competitive niche
• Re-define leadership: head and board
• Ensure effective governance and risk management
• Strategically examine school’s sustainability: link to mission, contain fees, increase other income and financial aid
• Attract new middle class, disadvantaged learners with potential, international pupils
• Explore partnerships with govt. & business
• Manage teacher performance, restructure remuneration
• Develop teachers as professionals, ‘grow’ new ones
INDEPENDENT SCHOOL STRATEGIESApril 2013
• Integrate interactive ICTs:– e-learning, responsible
digital citizenship– admin., marketing,
customer satisfaction• Emphasise ethical and
moral education to embed positive values, develop competency in ethical decision-making
• Increase contribution to public good, active citizenship
• Develop a diversity policy and plan, appoint committee, set goals and timelines
• Go ‘green’ - commit to environmental sustainability
• Communicate often with parents and stakeholders
• Use brain research to develop theory of learning: re-think learner motivation