Upload
xuxa
View
26
Download
0
Tags:
Embed Size (px)
DESCRIPTION
ECONOMICAL VIABILITY OF THE NUCLEAR OPTION IN MEXICO. Instituto Nacional de Investigaciones Nucleares. Installed Capacity. 45,576 MW. Fossil Fuel 66.8% Gas 32%. CFE-2005. Electricity Generation. 215.63 TWh. Gas 52%. CFE-2005. Nuclear contributes with about 5% since 1996. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Citation preview
ECONOMICAL VIABILITY OF THE NUCLEAR OPTION IN MEXICO
Instituto Nacional de Investigaciones Nucleares
Combined Cycle25.9%
Dual4.5%
Turbogas6.1%
Geothermal and Wind2.1%
Nuclear2.9%
Hydro22.6%
Internal Combustion0.3%
Conventional Thermal30.0%
Coal5.6%
45,576 MW
Installed Capacity
Fossil Fuel 66.8%
Gas 32%
CFE-2005
Electricity Generation
Fossil Fuel50.560%
Coal8.740%
Nuclear5.390%
Hydro9.627%
Geothermal3.290%
Independent22.390%
Wind0.003%
215.63 TWh
Nuclear contributes with about 5% since 1996
CFE-2005
Gas 52%
Forecast for Electricity Gross Consumption
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,00020
00
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
YEAR
GR
OS
S C
ON
SU
MP
TIO
N (
GW
h)
An increase of about 60% from 2005 to 2014
2000-2014
Required Capacity There should be an addition of
22,126 MW 6,184 MW already Committed 15,942 MW Non Committed
9,764 Technology already specified 6,178 Free Technology
The Case for Nuclear High Volatility of Gas Prices
Concern for CO2 Emissions
Balanced Fuel Mix
Economical Competitiveness
Levelized Cost Methodology
Quantifies the unitary cost of electricity (the kWh) during the lifetime of a power plant
The methodology considers the total
electrical energy that the power plant will deliver in its lifetime
Levelized Cost Methodology Levelized cost is the sum of:
Investment cost: which is the one generated during constructionProduction cost: is the one generated during the life of the plant, it includes
Fuel cost and Operation and maintenance costs
OECD-2005
Levelized Total Generation CostBenchmarking
PlantType
DR%
OECDUSD/MWh
ININUSD/MWh
Min. Max. Min. Max.
Gas 5 37 60 38.73 56.36
Nuclear 5 21 31 23.03 31.39
Gas 10 40 63 41.79 59.42
Nuclear 10 30 50 32.75 45.76
Scenarios
DR%
510
Gas Price $/MBTU4.445.207.00
Nuclear Construction Cost
(Output 1350 MWe)$/kWe
120014001600
AssumptionsPlant Type Gas Coal Nuclear
Lifetime (Years) 25 40 40
Capacity Factor (%) 80 80 90
Proper Uses (%) 3.1 7.3 3.1
Power Output (MWe) 560 700 1350
Thermal Efficiency (%) 52 37.24 34
Construction Time (Years) 2 4 5
Overnigth Cost (USD/kWe) 450 1000120014001600
Fuel Cost*USD/mmBTU
+USD/MWh
4.44*
5.20*
7.00*
1.78* 6.80+
O&M cost (USD/MWh) 2.77 4.75 7.83
Generation Cost (DR)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
US
D/M
Wh
Gas 1 37.86 39.52 40.74
Gas 2 43.01 44.67 45.89
Gas 3 55.2 56.86 58.08
Coal 32.83 38.16 42.18
Nuclear Low 25.26 30.51 34.53
Nuclear Medium 26.99 33.13 37.81
Nuclear High 28.73 35.74 41.09
5% 8% 10%
Capital Cost (DR)
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000U
SD
Mil
lio
ns
Gas 282.42 293.00 300.00
Coal 882.19 942.80 984.16
Nuclear Low 1933.71 2080.61 2182.96
Nuclear Medium 2256.00 2427.37 2546.78
Nuclear High 2578.28 2774.14 2910.61
5% 8% 10%
0
20
40
60
US
D/M
Wh
5% 25.78 27.6 29.42 26.32 28.24 30.15 26.9 28.9 30.91
8% 31.77 34.59 37.41 33.12 36.17 39.21 34.58 37.87 41.16
10% 36.49 40.1 43.71 38.66 42.63 46.6 41.04 45.4 49.77
Low Medium High Low Medium High Low Medium High
1 year 2 years 3 years
Nuclear Generation Cost Assuming Delays
Levelized electricity generating cost assuming different capacity factors
0
10
20
30
40
50
US
D/M
Wh
5% 27.28 29.24 31.19 26.21 28.05 29.88 25.26 26.99 28.73
8% 33.2 36.14 39.07 31.78 34.54 37.31 30.51 33.13 35.74
10% 37.71 41.4 45.09 36.03 39.5 42.97 32.42 37.81 41.09
Low Medium High Low Medium High Low Medium High
80% 85% 90%
Cash Flow*
Type of Plant
InvestmentCost
USD/kWe
PowerMWe
AnnualGross
EnergyMWe
0&MCost
x106 USD/yr
Gas 450 560 3,802,821 10
NuclearMedium
1400 1350 10,359,292 76
*Without fuel costs
Present Value of the Cash Flow (DR 8%)
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
-4 0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40
years
mill
ion
s o
f d
olla
rs
Nuclear Medium Gas1 Gas2 Gas3
Gas1 4.44 $/mmBTU; Gas2 5.20 $/mmBTU; Gas3 7.00 $/mmBTU
Generating Cost variability Due to Fuel Price
Gas price at 0% is 4.44 USD/MBTU and Nuclear Fuel Cost is 6.80 USD/MWh–40% it is about 2.50 USD/mmBTU for the Gas price
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
-40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100
% of change in the fuel cost
US
$/M
Wh
Gas-5 Nuclear Medium-5 Nuclear-Medium-10 Coal-10 Gas-10 Coal-5
Summary Even with delays of up to 3 years nuclear
is competitive with the gas option, and it is still cheaper when gas price is greater or equal to 7 USD/mmBTU.
Considering an 80% capacity factor, instead of 90% results in an increase of 4 USD/MW in the levelized cost.
Summary (cont.) When the price of gas is not less
than 5.20 USD/mmBTU, the levelized cost of nuclear generated electricity is lower than the cost resulting from using natural gas, as long as construction time is not longer than 7 years.
Conclusion Nuclear power is competitive in all
the scenarios considered, and it should be given serious consideration in the definition of Mexico’s additional electrical capacity program.