Economic Outlook - South Carolina v 4 Issue 8 August 2011

8/4/2019 Economic Outlook - South Carolina v 4 Issue 8 August 2011

1/4

-3.20%

-7.3%

-5.8%

+1.8%

-0.4%

+0.2%

+0.4%

-3.5%

-3.1%

S.C. Leading Index Falls Sharply in July

Volume 4: Issue 8 August 201

The Research Division at the South Carolina Department of Commerce is a highly-skilled,multidisciplinary team of professionals dedicated to the economic development of SouthCarolina and the collection, analysis and dissemination of information to support thatmission. Consisting of seven professionals with advanced degrees and expertise in economics,

usiness, statistics and information sciences, the Research Division publishes reports andanalyses for statewide constituents and proposals for companies considering South Carolina fornvestment. If you would like to receive Commerces monthly Economic Outlook, e-mail

[email protected].

Bloomberg

South Carolina Stock Indexfell 5.63 points in June, closing at 90.77 on the

last trading day of the month.

U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

State Personal Incomeincreased to $157 billion in the first quarter of2011, a 1.8 percent increase over the previousquarter.

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Nonfarm Employmentfell by 7,200 non-seasonally adjusted jobs in

July over the previous month.


Labor Forceincreased by a seasonally-adjusted 4,142 peopin July.


Unemployment Raterose 0.4 percentage points to 10.9 percent in

July.


Manufacturing Weekly Hoursdecreased 1.5 hours to 41.9 hours in July overthe previous month.

The Conference Board Help Wanted Online Index

Available Online Job Postingsdeclined 1,500 positions in July to aseasonally-adjusted 47,100 job postings.

South Carolina Association of Realtors

Single-Family Home Sales Pricedecreased to $150,000 in July, down 3.2 perceover June and last year, as well.

U.S. Census Bureau

Residential Building Permitsdeclined, falling by 97 permits over theprevious month.

KEY S.C. INDICATORS

Income

Employment

Real Estate

Source: South Carolina Department of Commerce

Driven by downward movement in all but one of its components, the SouthCarolina Leading Index (SCLI) declined by 0.34 points to 100.06. Relatively flatover the previous three months, July brought the largest decrease in the SCLIsince April 2010. A 3.5 percent decline in the average weekly work hours ofmanufacturing production employees coupled with a 17 percent increase in thenumber of initial claimants for unemployment insurance were the mainreasons for the falling SCLI this month. Bright spots in July include theincreasing size of the South Carolina labor force and rising state personal

income. Despite the decrease this month, the SCLI continues to indicate modestgrowth as it hovers above the 100 mark.

Real Estate Market Still Ahead for 2011Despite this months downturn in building permits and home sales, which istypical for July, South Carolinas Association of Realtors, the United StatesCensus Bureau and RealtyTrac all continue to report significant improvementsand growth in the states real estate market compared to one year ago. Over thepast year, home sales have increased 8.1 percent and new residential buildingpermits have increased 3.1 percent over July of last year. These two indicatorsprovide welcome news in both the Finance and Construction sectors as the

number of qualified homebuyers is increasing while new residential buildingpermits and construction employment are positively correlated, as well.Although foreclosures were slightly lower in May and June of this year than inJuly, they are trending downward and are 21.3 percent lower than one year agoand 14.2 percent lower year-to-date.

-David Clayton

98.00

98.50

99.00

99.50

100.00

100.50

101.00

101.50

102.00

Jan-07

Mar-07

May-07

Jul-07

Sep-07

Nov-07

Jan-08

Mar-08

May-08

Jul-08

Sep-08

Nov-08

Jan-09

Mar-09

May-09

Jul-09

Sep-09

Nov-09

Jan-10

Mar-10

May-10

Jul-10

Sep-10

Nov-10

Jan-11

Mar-11

May-11

Jul-11


2/4

Industry SectorJuly

2011

Previous

Month

Previous

Year

% Change

Month Ago

% Chan

Year A

Goods Producing 300,400 298,300 290,900 0.70

Natural Resources and Mining 4,200 4,200 4,000 0.00

Construction 78,200 77,900 79,600 0.39

Manufacturing 218,000 216,200 207,300 0.83

Service Providing 1,533,100 1,542,400 1,518,000 -0.60

Trade, Transportation, and Utilities 353,400 351,700 345,700 0.48

Information 25,700 25,600 26,100 0.39

Finance 97,600 97,800 98,500 -0.20

Professional and Business Services 223,700 223,600 216,300 0.04

Educational and Health Services 216,900 215,600 211,000 0.60Leisure and Hospitality 228,200 226,800 218,600 0.62

Other Services 68,000 68,100 68,800 -0.15

Total Private 1,513,900 1,507,500 1,475,900 0.42

Government 319,600 333,200 333,000 -4.08

Total Nonfarm 1,833,500 1,840,700 1,808,900 -0.39Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics

Weekly Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance

August 2

South Carolina Employment

Non-seasonally adjusted employment decreased in July across South Carolina. While private sector jobs increased by 6,400, the Government sector shed 13,600 jobs, makresponsible for the net decrease of 7,200 non-farm wage and salary jobs during the mContinued gains were observed in Manufacturing, which led private sector

Non-Seasonally Adjusted Wage and Salary Employment

Source: U.S. Department of Labor

nitial weekly Unemployment Insurance claims increased inJuly over the previous month to an average of just under6,200 claims per week. These numbers reflected a 17 percent

ncrease over the previous month, which is similar toeasonal increases that have occurred during the same

period in previous years. Claims initiated in July 2011 were14 percent lower than claims during the same time last year.

ndustry sectors most affecting initial claims during themonth of July include Heavy and Civil EngineeringConstruction and Administrative and Support Services.

2

6

10

14

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

1-Jan-11

8-Jan-11

15-Jan-11

22-Jan-11

29-Jan-11

5-Feb-11

12-Feb-11

19-Feb-11

26-Feb-11

5-Mar-11

12-Mar-11

19-Mar-11

26-Mar-11

2-Apr-11

9-Apr-11

16-Apr-11

23-Apr-11

30-Apr-11

7-May-11

14-May-11

21-May-11

28-May-11

4-Jun-11

11-Jun-11

18-Jun-11

25-Jun-11U

SClaimants(Thousa

nds)

South Carolina United States

ob gains, increasing by 1,800 workers, bringing the year-over-year total to 9,400 manufacturing jobs added. Leisure and Hospitality added positions and Educational and Health Services rebounded from the previous month adding 1,300 jobs, as educational employees were add

payrolls for the beginning of the school year.

Capital Investment and Job Recruitment

Weekly Unemployment Claims

Capital Investment and Job Recruitment provide statistics on industry recruitment efforts, detailing upcoming jobs and capital investment

projects closed by the South Carolina Department of Commerce year-to-date.

Source: S.C. Department of Commerce Note: Not all closed projects have yet undergone announcement.

2011 YTD $1.82 Mfg

2010 T o t a l $4.06 Rural Service New

2009 T o t a l $2.38 Urban Distribution Expansion

Jobs 2011 YTD 10,313 Mfg

2010 T o t a l 20,453 Rural Service New

2009 T o t a l 18,004 Urban Distribution Expansion

Totals Location YTD Industry YTD Origin YTD

Capital

Investment(billions o f $)

85%

15%

65%

35%

83%

67%

22%

12%

77%

23

54

46%

4%13


3/4

Thousands of US dollars. Source: S.C. Association of Realtors, RealtyTrac, U.S. Census

Source: U.S. Census Source: U.S. Department of Labor Source: The Conference Board Help Wanted Online Index

Source: South Carolina Department of Revenue Source: Bloomberg Source: U.S. Department of Labor

Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units. Source: SC Ports Authority Source: U.S. Census Source: Foreign Trade Division, U.S. Census

Residential Building Permits Average Hourly Earnings (All Employees) Jobs Available Online

Retail Sales

Port of Charleston Personal Income Export Activity

Weekly Manufacturing Hours WorkedSC Stock Index

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2008Q4

2009Q1

2009Q2

2009Q3

2009Q4

2010Q1

2010Q2

2010Q3

2010Q4

2011Q1

US$(billions)

Business Activity

While the median home price in South Carolina declined down 3.2 perce$150,000 over the previous year, sales volumes increased 8.1 percent but aredown 7.8 percent year-to-date over 2010. Foreclosures witnessed a sharp decli21.3 percent in July over the previous year and are down 14.2 percent year-to-Finally, building permits for new residential construction rose 3.1 percent duringand the valuation of those permits rose significantly by 21.7 percent.

August 2

South Carolina Real Estate

Income and Output

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

300

320

340

360

380

400

Jun10

Jul10

Aug10

Sep10

Oct10

Nov10

Dec10

Jan11

Feb11

Mar11

Apr11

May11

Jun11

US$(billions)

United States South Carolina

SC$(billions)

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Jul10

Aug10

Sep10

Oct10

Nov10

Dec10

Jan11

Feb11

Mar11

Apr11

May11

Jun11

Jul11


USUnits(thousands)

SCUnits(thousands)

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

55,000

Aug10

Sep10

Oct10

Nov10

Dec10

Jan11

Feb11

Mar11

Apr11

May11

Jun11

Volume(TEUs*)

Export Import

39

40

41

42

43

44

Jul10

Aug10

Sep10

Oct10

Nov10

Dec10

Jan11

Feb11

Mar11

Apr11

May11

J u n 1 1


Hours90.8

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

SCIndexValue*

*Represents 40 publicly-traded companies headquartered in SC.

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

May10

Jun10

Jul10

Aug10

Sep10

Oct10

Nov10

Dec10

Jan11

Feb11

Mar11

Apr11

May11

Jun11

Jul11

United States South Carolin

USJobs(thousands)

$157.4

143

148

153

158

11.1

11.6

12.1

12.6

13.1

2009.1

2009.2

2009.3

2009.4

2010.1

2010.2

2010.3

2010.4

2011.1

SC$(billions)


US$(trillions)

$20.53

$18.00

$18.50

$19.00

$19.50

$20.00

$20.50

$21.00

$21.50

South Carolina

Month Current

Previous

Year

% Change

Year Ago 2011 YTD 2010 YTD

% Cha

YTD

Closings July 4,110 3,801 8.1% 27,232 29,538 -

Median Sales Price* July $150.0 $155.0 -3.2% $147.0 $149.9 -

Foreclosures July 2,982 3,788 -21.3% 20,415 23,790 -14

Residential Building Permits-Total July 1,229 1,192 3.1% 8,930 9,565 -

Residential Building Permits-Valuation* July $243,555 $200,085 21.7% $1,542,351 $1,639,457 -5


4/4

Charleston MSA Columbia MSA Florence MSA

Greenville MSA Myrtle Beach MSA Spartanburg MSA

Source: S.C. Association of Realtors Source: U.S. Census

South Carolina Metropolitan Statistical Areas Charleston MSA Columbia MSA Florence MSA

Greenville MSA Myrtle Beach MSA Spartanburg MSA

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (MSA figures not seasonally adjusted) Source: SCDOC analysis of SCDEW data

Source: BEA

Home Sales

August 2

South Carolina Regional Update

Employment

Building Permits

0

20

40

60

80

Jul10

Sep10

Nov10

Jan11

Mar11

May11

Jul11

Value (millions) Pe

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

0

200

400

600

Jul10

Sep10

Nov10

Jan11

Mar11

May11

Jul11

Value (millions) Permits

$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

0

100

200

300

400

Jul10

Sep10

Nov10

Jan11

Mar11

May11

Jul11


0

10

20

30

40

50

Jul10

Sep10

Nov10

Jan11

Mar11

May11

Jul11

Value (millions) Per

$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

0

50

100

150

200

250

Jul10

Sep10

Nov10

Jan11

Mar11

May11

Jul11


$0

$10

$20

$30

0

50

100

150

200

Jul10

Sep10

Nov10

Jan11

Mar11

May11

Jul11


Unemployment Insurance Claims

The South Carolina Regional Update provides a snapshot of the most recent econfigures for the six largest Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) in the state. Accordithe United States Department of Commerce, the Charlotte-Rock Hill area ranked 45th o336 MSAs in personal income growth.

2,421

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

Jul10

Sep10

Nov10

Jan11

Mar11

May11

Jul11

New UI Claims

Personal Income Growth - Out of 366 US MSAs - BEA, 2010

3,053

0

2000

4000

6000

Jul10

Sep10

Nov10

Jan11

Mar11

May11

Jul11

New UI Claims

0

500

1000

1500

2000

Jul10

Sep10

Nov10

Jan11

Mar11

May11

New UI Claims

2,566

0

2000

4000

6000

Jul10

Sep10

Nov10

Jan11

Mar11

May11

Jul11

New UI Claims

894

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

Jul10

Sep10

Nov10

Jan11

Mar11

May11

Jul11

New UI Claims

0

500

1000

1500

2000

Jul10

Sep10

Nov10

Jan11

Mar11

May11

New UI Claims

Charlotte-Rock Hill, NC-SC CharlestonSumter AndersonAugusta-Aiken GA-SC

+4.4%21.1%21.1%77th 9th27th10th19th

MSA Indicator Jun 11 Jul 11

Charleston Employment (000 's) 298.3 300.4

Unemployment Rate 9.8 9.5

ColumbiaEmployment (000 's)

336.8 337.0Unemployment Rate 10.0 10.0

Florence Employment (000 's) 83.3 84.9


Greenville Employment (000 's) 285.0 285.7


Myrtle Beach Employment (000 's) 127.4 131.1


Spartanburg Employment (000 's) 119.5 117.3


South Carolina Employment (000 's) 1,931.4 1,925.2


MSA Indicator Jul 10 Jul 11

CharlestonSales Vo lume 678 832

Median Price (000 ' $195 $180

ColumbiaSales Vo lume 619 592

Median Price (000 ' $150 $143

FlorenceSales Vo lume 104 120

Median Price (000 ' $129 $130

GreenvilleSales Vo lume 538 637

Median Price (000 ' $141 $153

Myrtle BeachSales Vo lume 599 605

Median Price (000 ' $148 $137

Spartanburg Sales Vo lume 197 220

Median Price (000 ' $115 $126

South CarolinaSales Vo lume 3,801 4,110

Median Price (000 ' $155.0 $150.0

45th 51st 59th 67th 69th

Documents

Economic Outlook - South Carolina v 4 Issue 8 August 2011