Literature Review

Economic Implications of SLR to on Seaports and Coastal Cities. Review of literature on SLR and its implications on the economics of seaports and coastal cities.

Damilola SoboAbstractIn evaluating the impact of sea level rise on sea ports and coastal cities, this literature review integrates assessments of the economic importance of sea ports with expectations of regional sea level rises and associated storm surges. The analysis finds that (1) the port cities most threatened by sea level rise are located in deltaic regions, portal cities across the north and east coast of North America and small islands in the Caribbean, Indian and Pacific oceans (2) areas most vulnerable (in terms of mitigation and engagement strategies) to rising sea levels are in the south Mediterranean, Africa, South and South-east Asian countries and small island developing countries (SIDC).This review contributes to the body of knowledge and work being undertaken by the Stanford University Project in Engineering Response to Sea Level Rise (SUPERSLR).

Methodology in Assessing Economic ImpactAssessing city/regional exposure to SLR

Assessing exposure of port assets

Assessing Vulnerability

Assessing Indirect Impact of Port

The OECD Ranking/Selection Process

Literature Review analysis process

Assessing city/regional exposure to SLRExpected regional sea level rise.

Higher rates of SLR expected inDeltaic regionsWest and East Coasts of North AmericaCaribbean Community (CARICOM) countriesSmall Island Countries

2. Associated changes that reinforce SLR and economically impact port. These include flooding, erosion, increased precipitation and rain

Assessing Exposure of Port Assets and InfrastructureGraph shows the logarithmic trend of association between SLR and direct losses from infrastructure.

Asian portal cities have the most exposed assets and infrastructure. 38% of global portal cities are located in Asia.

Exposed assets in North America is placed at $7 trillion (UNEP)

Assessing vulnerabilitySensitivity: refers the ability of SLR to severely impact the short and long term operations of the ports and a substantial decrease to GDP of the regionAdaptation potential refers to the ability and speed of the port authorities in responding to the direct physical changes that SLR might have on operations (SUPERSLR Port Assessment)Small island developing countries (SIDS), least developed countries (LDCs) and landlocked developing countries (LLDCs) are most vulnerable to changes in maritime transport services according to the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD report)

Assessing indirect port activities.Change in demand of transport services Direct Port support sectors e.g. electricity and water supply, port service providers.Symbiotic economy and job market present from the presence and operations of the port. (Graph across shows a case study of Copenhagen port and the estimated losses frm 2m SLR)

ANALYSIS OF CURRENT SUPERSLR DATAPort EmploymentPort Revenue (Money Moving throug ports)US, Germany and the Netherlands have high number port employees.Benin Republic and Malaysia however are more vulnerable to economic lose since there are less developed social benefits/welfare systems

US, Japan and Netherlands have largest port economies.Aruba and Maldives are small island countries and are more vulnerable.

ConclusionThe qualitative and generic nature of the analysis of these reports do not give much perspectives on the impact of individual ports to the local, regional and national settingIt would be helpful to come up with a metric or model that could properly capture the economic impact of ports in order to efficiently evaluate the impact of SLR on the port in question.It is necessary to adapt to SLR in all regions. However the economic assessment impact gives policy makers a good idea of the priority areas.