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Presentation by Yeora Chae, Korea Environment Institute (KEI) at the Republic of Korea's 1st National Workshop on the Economics of Climate Change and Low Carbon Growth Strategies in Northeast Asia.
Citation preview
2010. 03. 11.
Economic Analysis of
climate change in Korea
Yeora Chae
Korea Environment Institute
2
Project Scope
� Spatial range : South Korea
� Time range : by 2050/2100
� Study fields :
� Agriculture, Forest, Sea level, Disaster, Health impact assessment of climate change
� Cost estimates of CO2 emissions reductions on energy section
3
Objectives
Estimate of Integrated Economic Impact
Estimate of Economic
impacts of Climate Change
Damage
Analysis of GHG reduction cost
and the ripple effect
using CGE Model
Cost-benefit integrated model analysis
Analysis of Climate change Scenarios of Korea
4
Analysis of Climate Change Scenarios
� Analysis of International GHGs Regulations Negotiation and GHGs Emission Scenario
� Analysis of Climate Change Scenarios of Korea
� Outlook for Domestic GHGs Emission Control
Scenarios
5
Estimate of Economic Adverse Impacts of Climate Change
AgricultureAgriculture
• Identify the relationship between climate factors and forest distribution
ForestForest
• Understand physical change status of coast of Korea
Sea levelSea level
• Current knowledge on the economic costs estimation methodology
DisasterDisaster
• Literature review of health impact of climate change
HealthHealth
• Literature review for climate change impact assessment
• Temperature damage function presumption of major crop plants
• Estimate forest distribution of South Korea by 2100
• Estimate excess mortality of climate change (fierce heat, O3 etc.)
� Analyze economic mechanisms of climate change of South Korea
� Establish damage function of climate change by sector
Estimate cost function of climate change
• Estimate protection cost
• Establish coastal change scenario • Analyze
possibility of disaster of Korea
6
� The ripple effects analysis and Cost function estimate of
Domestic policy to reduce GHGs emission
� Economic impact assessment of the change of
energy/resources supply-and-demand structure
(international/domestic)
� Analysis of impacts to trade of GHGs regulations
Analysis of GHG reduction cost and the ripple effects using CGE Model
7
� PAGE model modeling using the economic impact
function and reduction cost function
� Cost estimates of damage and response cost each
scenarios
� Uncertainty assessment of cost estimates
Cost-benefit integrated model analysis
Climate change in Korea
� Climate change scenario
8Temperature change:
Average temperature would increase 4� in
2071~2100 compared to 1971-2000
Precipitation change
Average Precipitation would increase 17%
in 2071~2100 compared to 1971-2000
9Rice yield change by
temperature
(kg/ha)
2080s ▼16.5 %
• Rice yield change in jeonnam: compared to1971~2000 average rice yield
2001 ▼0.74%
Rice yield= -159.5*temperature + 5330.7 (R2=0.9769)
Agriculture: Rice yield change
100
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
1971~2000 2030 2050 2070 2100
면적(천ha)
연도(년)
침엽수 활엽수 혼합림Present
2100
Forest distribution change
Forest : Distribution change
11 11
Wet area 0.2m 0.4m 0.6m 0.8m 1.0m
Flooded
area
(km2)
2,368 65.15 241.93 393.44 608.86 854.16
Coastal area
Flooded area by sea level riseFlooded area by sea level riseFlooded area by sea level riseFlooded area by sea level rise
12
Damage by sea level rise and temperature change
습지지역건조지역
0.2m 상승 0.4m 상승 0.6m 상승
152,254 242,333
242 393
침수인구(명)
침수면적(km2)
- 41,625
2,368 65
0.8m 상승 1m 상승
373,003 516,976
609 854
Coastal area
13
Year
No. of days daily average temperature above 28.1 °°°°C 이상인이상인이상인이상인 (Seoul)
Mortality change by heat wave평균평균평균평균 95% 하한95% 하한95% 하한95% 하한 95% 상한95% 상한95% 상한95% 상한2010 ~ 2040 67 56 792041 ~ 2070 212 176 2492071 ~ 2100 378 312 446Ye a rYe a rYe a rYe a r 여름철 초과 사망여름철 초과 사망여름철 초과 사망여름철 초과 사망
Ye a rYe a rYe a rYe a r2010 ~ 20402041 ~ 20702071 ~ 2100
270571787
평균 28.1평균 28.1평균 28.1평균 28.1℃℃℃℃ 이상인 날 수 이상인 날 수 이상인 날 수 이상인 날 수
▷28.1▷이상이상이상이상일수일수일수일수 : 평균평균평균평균 10-15일일일일 , 초과사망자수초과사망자수초과사망자수초과사망자수 : 평균평균평균평균 100명명명명이하이하이하이하(’94년년년년이상이상이상이상고온고온고온고온시시시시 28.1▷이상이상이상이상일수일수일수일수 33일일일일, 초과사망자초과사망자초과사망자초과사망자 800명명명명이상이상이상이상)
Health : Mortality change by heat wave
14
� Agriculture
� Coastal area
� Human health
0.00%
1.00%
2.00%
3.00%
4.00%
5.00%
6.00%
1 2 3 4온도변화 (℃)
GDP l
oss (
%)
농업해안건강
Climate change damage
15
� GDP loss by scenario(BAU %)
0.00%0.10%0.20%0.30%0.40%0.50%0.60%0.70%0.80%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%이산화탄소 감축비율GDP 감소비율 2020_No-Trade2020_Trade2030_No-Trade2030_Trade
CO2 mitigation cost: CGE model result : GDP loss
PAGE model (Policy Analysis of GHG Emission)
� Uses relatively simple equations to approximate complex climatic changes in a minimal number of computations
� Probabilistic sampling of the input parameters in order to build up an approximate probability distribution for each model output
� Output includes temperature change, climate change damage, adaptive cost, and preventative cost at a regional level for a given CO2 and SO2 emission scenario
� Incorporate 5 reasons to concern about climate change impacts
•Eight world regions.
•The major greenhouse gases.
•Economic and non-economic impacts.
•Time horizon of 2200.
•Probabilistic calculations.
Scope of the PAGE model
Inputs to the PAGE model
� Emissions of greenhouse gases� Sensitivity of the climate system� Cooling effect of sulphates� Impact as a function of temperature change� Discount rates
GHG EmissionGHG Emission
Socio economic factor : GDP, PopulationSocio economic factor : GDP, Population
Ambient GHG Concentration (Carbon Cycle)Ambient GHG Concentration (Carbon Cycle)
Valuation (Economics, Sociology, Ethics)Valuation (Economics, Sociology, Ethics)
Impact Analysis (Economics, Sociology, Ethics)Impact Analysis (Economics, Sociology, Ethics)
Temperature Change: Climate Modeling (Meteorology, Oceanography)Temperature Change: Climate Modeling (Meteorology, Oceanography)
Damage Damage
Mitigation Policy: Mitigation Cost Mitigation Policy: Mitigation Cost
Adaptation Policy: Adaptation CostAdaptation Policy: Adaptation Cost
Cost Cost
PAGE modelPAGE modelPAGE modelPAGE model ---- structurestructurestructurestructure
19
Climate change damage calculation in Climate change damage calculation in Climate change damage calculation in Climate change damage calculation in PAGEPAGEPAGEPAGE
HealthHealth ForestForestAgricultureAgriculture Coastal areaCoastal area
EconomicEconomic Non-economicNon-economic
20
Climate change damage by 2.5oC temperature increase
21
Climate change damage by 2.5oC temperature increase
지역지역지역지역 총계총계총계총계 농업농업농업농업 다른다른다른다른취약한취약한취약한취약한Market
해안해안해안해안 건강건강건강건강 Non-Market
Time Use재해재해재해재해 이민이민이민이민
대한민국대한민국대한민국대한민국 0.027 1.485 0.155
미국미국미국미국 0.45 0.06 0 0.11 0.02 -0.28 0.44 0.1
중국중국중국중국 0.22 -0.37 0.13 0.07 0.09 -0.26 0.52 0.05
일본일본일본일본 0.5 -0.46 0 0.56 0.02 -0.31 0.45 0.25
EU 2.83 0.49 0 0.6 0.02 -0.43 1.91 0.25
러시아러시아러시아러시아 -0.65 -0.69 -0.37 0.09 0.02 -0.75 0.99 0.05
인도인도인도인도 4.93 1.08 0.4 0.09 0.69 0.3 2.27 0.1
다른다른다른다른고소득고소득고소득고소득지역지역지역지역 -0.39 -0.95 -0.31 0.16 0.02 -0.35 0.94 0.1
OPEC 고소득지역고소득지역고소득지역고소득지역 1.95 0 0.91 0.06 0.23 0.24 0.46 0.05
동유럽동유럽동유럽동유럽 0.71 0.46 0 0.01 0.02 -0.36 0.47 0.1
중산층중산층중산층중산층 2.44 1.13 0.41 0.04 0.32 -0.04 0.47 0.1
저저저저-중소득중소득중소득중소득지역지역지역지역 1.81 0.04 0.29 0.09 0.32 -0.04 1.01 0.1
아프리카아프리카아프리카아프리카 3.91 0.05 0.09 0.02 3 0.25 0.39 0.1
저소득지역저소득지역저소득지역저소득지역 2.64 0.04 0.46 0.09 0.66 0.2 1.09 0.1
전세계전세계전세계전세계산출산출산출산출가중치가중치가중치가중치 1.5 0.13 0.05 0.32 0.1 -0.29 0.17 1.02
인구가중치인구가중치인구가중치인구가중치 2.19 0.17 0.23 0.12 0.56 -0.03 0.1 1.0522
impact function exponentimpact function exponentimpact function exponentimpact function exponent 1.766666667 1 1.3 3Economic impactEconomic impactEconomic impactEconomic impact 0.5 -0.1 0.6 1 %GDP loss for 2.5℃NonNonNonNon----econ impactecon impactecon impactecon impact 0.733333333 0 0.7 1.5 %GDP loss for 2.5℃Loss if discontinuity occursLoss if discontinuity occursLoss if discontinuity occursLoss if discontinuity occurs 11.66666667 5 10 20 %GDPEE weights factorEE weights factorEE weights factorEE weights factor -0.35 -1 -0.25 0.2US weights factorUS weights factorUS weights factorUS weights factor 0.25 0 0.25 0.5Korea weights factorKorea weights factorKorea weights factorKorea weights factor 0.366666667 0 0.1 1IA (inc CA) weights factorIA (inc CA) weights factorIA (inc CA) weights factorIA (inc CA) weights factor 2.5 1.5 2 4AF weights factorAF weights factorAF weights factorAF weights factor 1.833333333 1 1.5 3LA weights factorLA weights factorLA weights factorLA weights factor 1.833333333 1 1.5 3OT weights factorOT weights factorOT weights factorOT weights factor 0.25 0 0.25 0.5
Climate change damage calculation in PAGE model
23
CW CW CW CW (% of 1990 emissions)(% of 1990 emissions)(% of 1990 emissions)(% of 1990 emissions) 30 50 100C1 C1 C1 C1 ($million/Mt CO($million/Mt CO($million/Mt CO($million/Mt CO2222)))) 8.43 17.25 31.46 C2 C2 C2 C2 ($million/Mt CO($million/Mt CO($million/Mt CO($million/Mt CO2222)))) 17.25 29.24 91.83
Climate change damage calculation in PAGE model
24
� discount rate =discount rate =discount rate =discount rate =Pure time preference rate + equity weight*growth rate of GDP per capita
� Stern Review: Stern Review: Stern Review: Stern Review: ptp rate= 0.1
� Nordhaus:Nordhaus:Nordhaus:Nordhaus:social discount rate= 3%
� This study:This study:This study:This study:ptp rate = triangle distributiom (0.1,1,2)
Discount rate in PAGE model
25
26CO2 emission in Korea Temperature change
� Climate change damage and GHG mitigation cost� A1B
� 450 ppm stabilization scenario
PAGE Model result
27Climate change damage GHG mitigation cost
PAGE Model result� Climate change damage and GHG mitigation cost
2828
Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of climate change damage
PAGE Model result
Pdf of cumulative climate change damage
Sensitivity analysis
29
Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of GHG mitigation cost
Pdf of cumulative GHG mitigation cost
Sensitivity analysis
PAGE Model result
30Pdf of damage & control cost Pdf of net benefit
5%5%5%5%p e rc e nt ilep e rc e nt ilep e rc e nt ilep e rc e nt ile m e a nm e a nm e a nm e a n 95%95%95%95%
p e rc e n t ilep e rc e n t ilep e rc e n t ilep e rc e n t ile5%5%5%5%
p e rc e n t ilep e rc e n t ilep e rc e n t ilep e rc e n t ile m e a nm e a nm e a nm e a n 95%95%95%95%p e rc e n tilep e rc e n tilep e rc e n tilep e rc e n tile
A1B - 33,169 819,408 9,409,995Ag gre ssive
Po lic y - 20,059 448,259 434,433 3,056 163,506 696,247
기후변화 누적 피해비용 기후변화 누적 피해비용 기후변화 누적 피해비용 기후변화 누적 피해비용 ((((m ill io nm illio nm illio nm illio n $$$$ )))) 온실가스 누적 저감비용 온실가스 누적 저감비용 온실가스 누적 저감비용 온실가스 누적 저감비용 ((((m ill io nm illio nm illio nm illio n $$$$ ))))시나리오시나리오시나리오시나리오
• pdf of cumulative climate change damage and GHG mitigation
PAGE Model result
Net benefit>0: 82% probability