EBI Report 4000 The Climate Change Industry · EBI Report 4000 The Climate Change Industry April 2015 A publication of Environmental Business International, Inc. 4452 Park Blvd. #306

EBI Report 4000 The Climate Change Industry April 2015 A publication of Environmental Business International, Inc. 4452 Park Blvd. #306 San Diego CA 92116 619-295-7685 www.climatechangebusiness.com www.ebionline.org

Table of Contents Climate Change Industry Overview............................................................................. I-2 I. Acknowledgements ................................................................................................ I-2

I.I.I. Authors and Sources .....................................................................................I-2 I.I.II. EBI’s Market Research Method................................................................I-2 I.I.III. Survey Instruments ...................................................................................I-3 I.I.IV. Disclaimer .................................................................................................I-4 I.I.V. Copyright ..................................................................................................I-4

II. Overview of the Climate Change Industry.........................................................II-5 II.I.I. Climate Change Industry Definition and Context .................................. II-5

Why the Climate Change Industry?.................................................................... II-5 II.I.II. Definition of the Climate Change Industry............................................. II-8 II.I.III. Definition of the Environmental Industry............................................. II-11 II.I.IV. The Climate Change Industry ............................................................... II-14 II.I.V. Business Overview of the Climate Change Industry ............................ II-19

Climate Change Industry and the Global Economy ......................................... II-20 Climate Change Industry: Market Drivers........................................................ II-21

II.I.VI. Economic Comparison with Environmental Industry........................... II-23 II.I.VII. Conclusion ........................................................................................ II-26

Table of Figures Figure II-1 Nine Segments of the Climate Change Industry ........................................ II-5 Figure II-2 Climate Change Industry Segment Descriptions........................................ II-8 Figure II-3 Climate Change Industry Segment Quantification Sub-Segments........... II-10 Figure II-4 Environmental Industry Segments ........................................................... II-13 Figure II-5 The $280-Billion U.S. Climate Change Industry in 2012 ........................ II-14 Figure II-6 The U.S. Climate Change Industry: 2006-2013 ($bil) ............................. II-15 Figure II-7 The U.S. Climate Change Industry 2006-2013 (% growth)..................... II-15 Figure II-8 Global CO2 Emissions (% of total).......................................................... II-16 Figure II-9 Global CO2 emissions in 2007 (Mt CO2 and % of total) ........................ II-17 Figure II-10 The $1,380-Billion Global Climate Change Industry in 2012 ............... II-17 Figure II-11 The Global Climate Change Industry 2006-2013 ($bil)......................... II-18 Figure II-12 The Global Climate Change Industry 2006-2013 (% growth) ............... II-18 Figure II-13 Global Climate Change Industry 2005-2013 ($bil).................................. II-19 Figure II-14 Global Climate Change Industry 2006-2013 ($bil).................................. II-19 Figure II-15 USA vs. Global Climate Change Industry in 2013 ($bil) ........................ II-20 Figure II-16 Ranking of Market Drivers in Climate Change Consulting ................... II-21 Figure II-17 Ranking of Market Drivers in Wind Energy .......................................... II-22 Figure II-18 Ranking of Market Drivers in Green Building....................................... II-22 Figure II-19 U.S. Environmental Industry vs. GDP Growth 1970-2013.................... II-23 Figure II-20 U.S. Climate Change Industry vs. U.S. GDP Growth 2005-2013.......... II-24 Figure II-21 Global Climate Change Industry vs. Global GDP Growth 2007-2013.. II-24 Figure II-22 U.S. Environmental Industry as a Percentage of GDP 1970-2013 ($bil)II-25 Figure II-23 U.S. Climate Change Industry as a Percentage of GDP 2005-2013 ($bil). II-25

EBI Report 4110

Climate Change Business Journal, 4452 Park Blvd, Suite 306, San Diego, CA 92116, Tel: 619-295-7685

Table of Contents

1. Solar Energy Industry ........................................................................................... 1-7 1.1. Solar Energy Industry Overview ..................................................................... 1-7

1.1.1. Solar Industry Update 2014 ................................................................... 1-12 1.1.2. Solar Services & Integration Challenge 2014........................................ 1-18 1.1.3. Solar Industry Update 2012-2013.......................................................... 1-28 1.1.4. Price Trends in Residential and Commercial PV in 2012 ..................... 1-32 1.1.5. Solar Industry Update 2011 ................................................................... 1-33 1.1.6. Community Solar Models ...................................................................... 1-43 1.1.7. 2014 PV Market Statistics ..................................................................... 1-47 1.1.8. 2013 USA PV Market Statistics ............................................................ 1-48 1.1.9. 2011 PV Market Statistics ..................................................................... 1-49 1.1.10. 2010 PV Market Statistics ..................................................................... 1-50 1.1.11. 2009 PV Market Statistics ..................................................................... 1-51 1.1.12. Recession Review: Solar Industry Weathers Downturn........................ 1-51 1.1.13. Project Developers & Utility Entrants ................................................... 1-62 1.1.14. Integrators and Installers........................................................................ 1-63 1.1.15. U.S. Solar Market Review ..................................................................... 1-66 1.1.16. Concentrating PV................................................................................... 1-68 1.1.17. Integrators and Deal Specialists............................................................. 1-69

1.2. PV Manufacturers .......................................................................................... 1-73 1.2.1. Manufacturers Battle for Share in Changing PV Market....................... 1-73 1.2.2. 2008 PV Business Review..................................................................... 1-77 1.2.3. Thin-Film Technology........................................................................... 1-81 1.2.4. Commercial Market ............................................................................... 1-83 1.2.5. Japan: Direct Selling Culture Favors Residential .................................. 1-84 1.2.6. Off-Grid Residential Market.................................................................. 1-85 1.2.7. Solar Leasing and PPAs......................................................................... 1-90 1.2.8. Manufacturer Profile: SunPower ........................................................... 1-93 1.2.9. Manufacturer Profile: Sharp .................................................................. 1-96 1.2.10. Sharp Thin Film ..................................................................................... 1-97 1.2.11. Solar Grid Storage.................................................................................. 1-98 1.2.12. Real Goods Solar Energy..................................................................... 1-101 1.2.13. Heliatek: BIPV..................................................................................... 1-103 1.2.14. Distributor Profile: Alternative Energy Engineering........................... 1-105 1.2.15. Profile: Suntech Power Holdings......................................................... 1-107 1.2.16. Developer Profile: Sun Edison............................................................. 1-109

1.3. Solar Investment .......................................................................................... 1-112 1.3.1. Chrysalix Energy Partnerships............................................................. 1-113 1.3.2. VantagePoint........................................................................................ 1-117 1.3.3. Technology is the Acid Test for Investors........................................... 1-119

1.4. Market Drivers ............................................................................................. 1-120 1.4.1. Solar Renewable Energy Credits ......................................................... 1-120 1.4.2. Federal & State Drivers: Installation ................................................... 1-126 1.4.3. State Policy Drivers ............................................................................. 1-128 1.4.4. Regulators Wrestle With Getting PV on the Grid ............................... 1-134

Solar Energy Industry

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1.4.5. Business Outlook: Q&A with ThomasLloyd....................................... 1-138 1.5. Concentrated Solar Power............................................................................ 1-140

1.5.1. Solar Thermal Power: Emerging Technologies................................... 1-140 1.5.2. CSP Projects 2011................................................................................ 1-145 1.5.3. CSTP in Developing Markets .............................................................. 1-151 1.5.4. Concentrating Photovoltaic Systems ................................................... 1-152 1.5.5. CSP In U.S. and Spain ......................................................................... 1-155 1.5.6. Storage For Peak Power...................................................................... 1-158 1.5.7. CSP Profile: Advantage Troughs......................................................... 1-160 1.5.8. CSP Profile: Abengoa Solar................................................................. 1-160 1.5.9. CSP Profile: BrightSource ................................................................... 1-162 1.5.10. CSP Profile: Ausra............................................................................... 1-163 1.5.11. CSP Profile: Skyfuel Inc...................................................................... 1-164 1.5.12. Developer Profile: Q&A with Fluor .................................................... 1-166 1.5.13. Developer Profile: Q&A with Bechtel................................................. 1-168 1.5.14. Developer Profile: Fotowatio............................................................... 1-172 1.5.15. Concentrating Solar Power Technologies............................................ 1-173 1.5.16. C&E Firms: Challenges in CSP........................................................... 1-174

1.6. Electric Utilities in Solar.............................................................................. 1-177 1.6.1. Electric Utilities Review...................................................................... 1-177 1.6.2. Southern California Edison: 2014........................................................ 1-180 1.6.3. Southern California Edison: 2010-2012 .............................................. 1-183 1.6.4. PG&E................................................................................................... 1-191 1.6.5. AEP and Exelon Test Solar in the U.S. East........................................ 1-192 1.6.6. Utilities Weigh Risk of CSP Development.......................................... 1-194

1.7. Installation Market ....................................................................................... 1-195 1.7.1. Commercial and Residential Installers ................................................ 1-195 1.7.2. Installer Profile: Solar City .................................................................. 1-197 1.7.3. Installer Profile: Sage Renewables ...................................................... 1-199 1.7.4. Installer Profile: Alteris Renewables Inc. ............................................ 1-201 1.7.5. Installer Profile: Premier Power Renewable Energy ........................... 1-202 1.7.6. Installer Profile: DRI Companies......................................................... 1-204

1.8. Solar Hot Water Heating.............................................................................. 1-207 1.8.1. Solar Water in U.S., Europe and Canada............................................. 1-207 1.8.2. European SWH .................................................................................... 1-208 1.8.3. SHW Profile: Alternate Energy Technologies..................................... 1-210 1.8.4. SHW Profile: Solar PST ...................................................................... 1-211 1.8.5. SHW Profile: EnerWorks .................................................................... 1-211

1.9. Solar Consulting & Engineering.................................................................. 1-212 1.9.1. Solar engineering ................................................................................. 1-212 1.9.2. 2011 C& E Update............................................................................... 1-215 1.9.3. Q&A: Amaresco .................................................................................. 1-221 1.9.4. C&E Profile: Lockheed and Starwood ................................................ 1-223 1.9.5. C&E Profile: O’Brien & Gere ............................................................. 1-225 1.9.6. C&E Profile: CH2M Hill ..................................................................... 1-226 1.9.7. C&E Profile: Black & Veatch QC Practice ......................................... 1-229

EBI Report 4110


1.9.8. C&E Profile: Black & Veatch.............................................................. 1-232 1.9.9. C&E Profile: Tetra Tech...................................................................... 1-232

1.10. CCBJ's Solar Energy Market Survey 2011.............................................. 1-236

Solar Energy Industry


Table of Figures

Figure 1-1 The $95-Billion Global Solar Energy Industry in 2010........................... 1-7 Figure 1-2 The Solar Energy Industry: 2009-2010: USA and Global ($bil) ............. 1-8 Figure 1-3 The $172-Billion Global Solar Energy Industry in 2013......................... 1-8 Figure 1-4 The Solar Energy Industry: 2012-13: USA and Global ($bil) ................. 1-9 Figure 1-5 The Global Solar Energy Industry 1999-2014 ($bil)............................. 1-10 Figure 1-6 Global Solar Energy Industry 2004 – 2014 ........................................... 1-11 Figure 1-7 Annual Growth in U.S. Solar Energy Industry 2004 – 2014................. 1-12 Figure 1-8 Annual Growth in Global Solar Energy Industry 2004 – 2014 ............. 1-12 Figure 1-9 Solar Photovoltaics Production: China vs. ROW, 1995-2010............... 1-27 Figure 1-10 Annual Global Solar Photovoltaic Installations in MW 2005 - 2010.... 1-35 Figure 1-11 Annual Global Solar Photovoltaic Installations in MW 2010-2013...... 1-35 Figure 1-12 Global Leaders in Solar Photovoltaic Production in MW 2006 – 2010 1-36 Figure 1-13 Solar PV Leaders: PV Module Shipments in MW 2011-2013.............. 1-37 Figure 1-14 Growth in Energy Consumption by Renewable Energy Source 06-09 .1-39 Figure 1-15 Global M&A in Solar Energy ................................................................ 1-42 Figure 1-16 Top M&A Deals in Solar Energy .......................................................... 1-43 Figure 1-17 Community Solar Project Scorecard...................................................... 1-46 Figure 1-18 U.S. Grid-Connected PV Capacity 2003-2014 (MW) ........................... 1-48 Figure 1-19 Solar Photovoltaic Installations by State by MW in 2011-2013............ 1-49 Figure 1-20 The Global Solar Energy Industry in 2007 - 2011................................ 1-52 Figure 1-21 The Global Solar Energy Industry in 2011-2015................................... 1-52 Figure 1-22 The U.S. Solar Energy Industry 2007 - 2011......................................... 1-54 Figure 1-23 The U.S. Solar Energy Industry 2011-2015........................................... 1-55 Figure 1-24 Top-10 Suppliers of Solar Cells in 2008 and 2009 (production in MW) .. 1-56 Figure 1-25 Top Suppliers of Solar Cells: 2008 Revenues and Growth ................... 1-57 Figure 1-26 Top Chinese Suppliers of Solar Cells in 2008 ....................................... 1-57 Figure 1-27 Installed Cost of Photovoltaics In USA 2004 – 2014............................ 1-59 Figure 1-28 Installed Cost of Photovoltaics .............................................................. 1-60 Figure 1-29 Solar Projects: Operational and Under Development in the USA in 2009 1-62 Figure 1-30 Global Leaders in Solar Photovoltaic Production in MW 2006 - 2010.1-74 Figure 1-31 2008 Global Leaders in PV Production in MW..................................... 1-75 Figure 1-32 2010 Global Leaders in PV Cell Manufacturer Production (%)............ 1-76 Figure 1-33 Global Leaders in Solar Photovaltaic Production in MW 2000-2007 ... 1-76 Figure 1-34 2008 Global Leaders in Thin Film Production in MW.......................... 1-82 Figure 1-35 PV System Ownership in U.S. Market 2008 ......................................... 1-87 Figure 1-36 Grid-Tied PV by State in 2007 .............................................................. 1-88 Figure 1-37 Grid-Tied PV by State in 2008 .............................................................. 1-88 Figure 1-38 Grid-Tied PV by State in 2009-2010..................................................... 1-89 Figure 1-39 Q1’07 – Q1’09 Revenues for 17 Publicly Traded PV Manufacturers... 1-89 Figure 1-40 National Weighted Average System Prices, 2010 ................................. 1-90 Figure 1-41 Global VC Investment in Solar 2002 - 2010 ....................................... 1-112 Figure 1-42 2010 Top VC Deals In Solar Energy ................................................... 1-113

EBI Report 4110


Figure 1-43 VC Investments in Solar ($mil) ........................................................... 1-117 Figure 1-44 Global VC Investment in Solar 2002-2010 ......................................... 1-118 Figure 1-45 Grid-Tied PV Capacity in the States (MW-dc).................................... 1-123 Figure 1-46 Utility-Scale Project Capacity by State and Completion Status (MW)1-124 Figure 1-47 Top 20 Projects in Commonwealth Solar Programs: State of Massachusetts 1-125 Figure 1-48 U.S. PV Installations and Global Market Share 2005 - 2015 .............. 1-127 Figure 1-49 Consumption of Thermal Solar Power by State, in Bbtu..................... 1-131 Figure 1-50 Concentrated Solar Power: Megawatts of Capacity in Pipeline 2007-2014 1-141 Figure 1-51 Top Operational Solar Thermal Power Stations by MW..................... 1-146 Figure 1-52 Major U.S. CSP Projects Under Construction ..................................... 1-146 Figure 1-53 Concentrating Photovoltaic Companies............................................... 1-154 Figure 1-54 SCE’s Solar Photovoltaic Program Power Purchase Agreements....... 1-188 Figure 1-55 Global Solar Hot Water/Heating Capacity in 2006 (Total = 104 GWth) .. 1-209 Figure 1-56 Number of U.S. Companies Expecting to Introduce New Solar Thermal Collector Products in 2007........................................................................................... 1-212 Figure 1-57 U.S. Solar Energy Consulting & Engineering and Construction ($mil).... 1-213 Figure 1-58 Concentrating Solar Power Projects In Development in the United States1-214 Figure 1-59 Solar Projects: Operational and Under Development in the USA in 2009 1-215 Figure 1-60 Projects Under Development: Photovoltaics (excluding Concentrating PV) 1-224 Figure 1-61 CSP Projects in Operation ................................................................... 1-228 Figure 1-62 Top U.S. Renewable Energy Consulting & Engineering Companies in 2008 1-235

EBI Report 4120


Table of Contents

2. Wind Energy Markets ........................................................................................... 2-7 2.1. Wind Energy Industry Overview ................................................................. 2-7

2.1.1. 2014 Global Update ................................................................................. 2-9 2.1.2. 2014 USA Update .................................................................................. 2-16 2.1.3. 2012 Update ........................................................................................... 2-21 2.1.4. 2011 Update: Key Trends ...................................................................... 2-27 2.1.5. 2010 Update ........................................................................................... 2-29

2009 Figures Shock the Experts ........................................................................ 2-29 2.1.6. 2009 Installation Update ........................................................................ 2-36 2.1.7. 2008 and 2007 Record Years................................................................. 2-37 2.1.8. U.S. Leads in Added Capacity............................................................... 2-39 2.1.9. Suppliers Struggle to Keep Up In an U.S. Market................................. 2-40 2.1.10. Wind Energy Gets its Marching Orders from Government Targets...... 2-41

2.2. Global Wind Industry ................................................................................. 2-45 2.2.1. Global Leadership Takes a Turn in Wind Turbines............................... 2-45 2.2.2. Mexico Promises a Growing Market with Three Distinct Developer Categories .............................................................................................................. 2-49 2.2.3. Ontario Launches FIT With Buy Ontario Provision.............................. 2-52

2.3. Business Trends............................................................................................ 2-53 2.3.1. Wind Energy Supply Chain Creates Multiple Entries for Service Providers 2-53 2.3.2. Manufacturers Enjoy Economies of Scale and Higher Prices ............... 2-55 2.3.3. Utilities Race to Consolidate Development Business............................ 2-57 2.3.4. Developers Face Rising Costs ............................................................... 2-58 2.3.5. Transmission and Other Challenges ...................................................... 2-59

Big, Bigger, Biggest........................................................................................... 2-61 2.3.6. Wind Versus Solar and Other Renewables............................................ 2-63

Utilities Think Buy or Build in Renewables...................................................... 2-64 2.4. Power Utility Wind Profiles ........................................................................ 2-67

2.4.1. Siemens Builds Wind Platform in North America ................................ 2-67 2.4.2. Mainstream Has Ambitious Plans to Develop Wind Energy Across the U.S. 2-69 2.4.3. Horizon Wind Sees Clear Path to Growth ............................................. 2-71 2.4.4. E.On ....................................................................................................... 2-72 2.4.5. U.S. investor-owned utilities (IOUs) ..................................................... 2-76 2.4.6. Xcel ........................................................................................................ 2-78 2.4.7. PG&E..................................................................................................... 2-82 2.4.8. MidAmerican ......................................................................................... 2-84

2.5. Developer Profiles ........................................................................................ 2-86 2.5.1. Windkraft Nord USA............................................................................. 2-86 2.5.2. Iberdrola................................................................................................. 2-88 2.5.3. National Wind........................................................................................ 2-90

Securing Wind Consulting Services .................................................................. 2-92 2.5.4. Columbia Energy Partners ..................................................................... 2-93

Wind Energy Markets


2.6. Wind Turbine Company Profiles ............................................................... 2-95 2.6.1. Nordex.................................................................................................... 2-95 2.6.2. Acciona Windpower .............................................................................. 2-99 2.6.3. Gamesa................................................................................................. 2-100

Gamesa Spins Off Development Business to Iberdrola................................... 2-102 2.6.4. GE’s Wind Business ............................................................................ 2-103

2.7. Consulting & Engineering Firms in Wind .............................................. 2-106 2.7.1. Ecology & Environment Banks on Its Front-End Experience of 250 Projects in Wind Energy ...................................................................................... 2-106 2.7.2. CH2M HILL Embraces Owner’s Engineer Role................................. 2-109 2.7.3. Mortenson Construction Leads the EPC Pack in Wind Farm Construction 2-111 2.7.4. Merger Makes GL Garrad Hassan a 600-Person Global Leader in Wind Development Services ......................................................................................... 2-112 2.7.5. Tetra Tech ............................................................................................ 2-114 2.7.6. Tetra Tech Restocks Backlog After Banner Year In 2009 .................. 2-115 2.7.7. RMT and WindConnect....................................................................... 2-118 2.7.8. RMT Looks To Second Half of 2010 For Pickup In Wind ................. 2-118 2.7.9. TRC Companies................................................................................... 2-121 2.7.10. ICF International.................................................................................. 2-121 2.7.11. Typical Projects in Wind Consulting & Engineering .......................... 2-124

2.8. Specialty Wind Services Profiles .............................................................. 2-127 2.8.1. Meteodyn Leads in Wind Resource Modelling Software.................... 2-127 2.8.2. Clean Line Joins TransCanada and Transwest Express in Race to Build HVDC Lines ........................................................................................................ 2-128 2.8.3. Wind Mapping and Forecasting Leader AWS Truepower Maintains 40% Annual Growth..................................................................................................... 2-130

2.9. Offshore Wind............................................................................................ 2-132 2.9.1. Europe .................................................................................................. 2-133 2.9.2. North America ..................................................................................... 2-135 Apex Cos.: Offshore Wind Developers and Ports ............................................... 2-139 2.9.3. Canada.................................................................................................. 2-141 2.9.4. EWEA Recaps offshore Market........................................................... 2-143 2.9.5. Offshore Wind Picking Up .................................................................. 2-146

2.10. Small Wind on the Rise in Homes, Farms and Retail ............................ 2-147 2.10.1. 2008 Statistics ...................................................................................... 2-148 2.10.2. Profile: Helix Wind.............................................................................. 2-149 2.10.3. Profile: AeroVironment ....................................................................... 2-149 2.10.4. Profile: Earth Turbines......................................................................... 2-150 2.10.5. Profile: Proven Energy......................................................................... 2-151

2.11. CCBJ’s Wind Energy Market Survey 2010 ............................................ 2-152 2.12. CCBJ’s Wind Energy Market Survey 2008 ............................................ 2-156

CCBJ’s Wind Energy Market Survey 2008: Opinion Questions..................... 2-164

EBI Report 4120


Table of Figures

Figure 2-1 The Global Wind Energy Industry 1992-2015 ($mil).................................. 2-7 Figure 2-2 Percent of New Electricity Capacity Additions in the USA by Source, 2000-2007.................................................................................................................................. 2-8 Figure 2-3 Global Wind Energy Market in Revenues, 1993-2014 ($mil) ................... 2-15 Figure 2-4 Global & U.S. Wind Energy Markets by Segment: 2011-2013 ($mil)...... 2-15 Figure 2-5 Top Wind Turbine Manufacturers in 2013 by MW Installed .................... 2-16 Figure 2-6 Global & U.S. Wind Energy Markets by Segment: 2011-2013 ($mil)...... 2-21 Figure 2-7 U.S Wind Services ..................................................................................... 2-33 Figure 2-8 Total USA Installed Capacity by State in MW: End of 2009 .................... 2-34 Figure 2-9 USA Wind Energy Turbines: 2009 Installations ....................................... 2-35 Figure 2-10 Categories of Services............................................................................... 2-35 Figure 2-11 Global Wind Energy Industry $mil.......................................................... 2-36 Figure 2-12 Global Wind Energy: Cumulative Installed Capacity, end of 2007 (MW).2-37 Figure 2-13 Top 10 Countries: Total Installed Capacity, 2008 ................................... 2-38 Figure 2-14 Top 10 Countries: New Capacity, 2008................................................... 2-39 Figure 2-15 U.S. Market: Sales of Wind Turbines, 1998-2015................................... 2-39 Figure 2-16 2007 New Installations: U.S. Market Share in Wind Turbines (MW)..... 2-41 Figure 2-17 Annual U.S. Turbine Installation Capacity, by Manufacturer ................. 2-42 Figure 2-18 Global Turbine Market Share, 2007......................................................... 2-42 Figure 2-19 Top 10 wind turbine manufacturers by MW installed worldwide in 2009 .. 2-43 Figure 2-20 Prominent Mergers & Acquisitions in Wind Energy 2002-2007............. 2-43 Figure 2-21 Acquisition and Investment Activity Among Wind Developers ............. 2-44 Figure 2-22 Global and USA Wind Energy Industry 2011-2013 ($mil) ..................... 2-45 Figure 2-23 Global Wind Energy: 2012 and 2013 Installations by Nation ................. 2-46 Figure 2-24 Total Installed Capacity 2009 in MW...................................................... 2-47 Figure 2-25 Total Added Capacity 2009 in MW......................................................... 2-47 Figure 2-26 Global Wind Services ............................................................................. 2-47 Figure 2-27 Total Installed Capacity in MW: 1992-2009 .......................................... 2-48 Figure 2-28 Global Wind Energy Turbines: 2009 Installations by Manufacturer...... 2-48 Figure 2-29 Global Wind Energy Turbines: 2009 Installations by Manufacturer 2009-2013................................................................................................................................ 2-49 Figure 230 Wind Power: U.S. Installed Capacity by State (Megawatts), 1999-2007 .2-60 Figure 231 Table 9. Forecasts for Annual U.S. Wind Capacity Additions (MW) ...... 2-61 Figure 2-32 Key Issues for U.S. Wind Power ............................................................. 2-61 Figure 2-33 United States Wind Power Rankings: The Top 20 States, 2008.............. 2-63 Figure 2-34 Top-20 Utility Wind Power Rankings ..................................................... 2-74 Figure 2-35 US Wind Energy: Annual Installed Capacity 1999-2007 (MW) ............. 2-77 Figure 2-36 Utility/Power Companies Purchasing Wind Through Long-Term Contract by End 2006 ................................................................................................................... 2-81 Figure 2-37 “Managing Ownership” of U.S. Wind Farms Through End of 2006....... 2-82 Figure 2-38 Distribution of Iberdrola Wind Capacity (7.6 GW) ................................. 2-89 Figure 2-39 2007 Gamesa Wind Capacity................................................................. 2-101

Wind Energy Markets


Figure 2-40 GE Energy: Wind Turbine Sales 2002-2007 ($Mil) .............................. 2-104 Figure 2-41 Offshore Wind to Increase from 1% in 2007 to 7% in 2020 (MW) ...... 2-137 Figure 2-42 EU Offshore Wind by the Numbers....................................................... 2-144 Figure 2-43 Growth of U.S. Small Wind Market ...................................................... 2-148 Figure 2-44 U.S. Small Wind Market (2007) ............................................................ 2-149 Figure 2-45 Small Wind Turbine Equipment Providers Listed bt AWEA................ 2-151 Figure 2-46 Significance to reducing global carbon emissions ................................. 2-153 Figure 2-47 Rating of Customers in North American Wind Energy ......................... 2-153 Figure 2-48 By what percentage have wind turbine prices declined or risen in the last 12 months? ........................................................................................................................ 2-154 Figure 2-49 Annual growth in U.S. wind energy capacity was between 25-50% from 2005 through 2009. What average annual growth do you forecast for U.S. wind energy capacity in 2010-2014? ................................................................................................ 2-154 Figure 2-50 Barriers to growth in North American wind power in 2010 .................. 2-155 Figure 2-51 Ranking importance of market drivers in wind energy.......................... 2-155 Figure 2-52 Respondant Pool..................................................................................... 2-156 Figure 2-53 Importance of Market Drivers for the Wind Energy Business in 2008 .2-156 Figure 2-54 Importance of the following business drivers for company growth in 20082-157 Figure 2-55 Barriers to growth in 2008 ..................................................................... 2-157 Figure 2-56 Percentage of U.S. electricity generation non-hydro renewable sources will represent in 2020.......................................................................................................... 2-158 Figure 2-57 Percentage of U.S. electricity generation non-hydro renewable sources will represent in 2050.......................................................................................................... 2-158 Figure 2-58 Percentage of U.S. electricity generation wind energy sources will represent in 2020 ......................................................................................................................... 2-159 Figure 2-59 Percentage of U.S. electricity generation wind energy will represent in 2050...................................................................................................................................... 2-159 Figure 2-60 Percentage of Global electricity generation wind energy will represent in 2050.............................................................................................................................. 2-160 Figure 2-61 Percentage of global wind energy generation of off-shore in 2020 ....... 2-160 Figure 2-62 Importance of the following sectors to customer base........................... 2-161 Figure 2-63 Percentage companies expanded manufacturing/services capacity or production of wind power since the end of 2006......................................................... 2-161 Figure 2-64 Percentage wind turbine manufacturing costs have risen in the last 12 months.......................................................................................................................... 2-162 Figure 2-65 Importance of the factors that have driven up the cost of wind power manufacturing .............................................................................................................. 2-162 Figure 2-66 Significance to reducing global carbon emissions to 2050.................... 2-163 Figure 2-67 Average annual growth forecast for the wind energy business in 2008-2012...................................................................................................................................... 2-164 Figure 2-68 Average annual growth forecast for the entire wind energy business in 2012 to 2020 ......................................................................................................................... 2-164 Figure 2-69 Average annual growth forecast for the entire wind energy business in 2012- 2020 ................................................................................................................... 2-165 Figure 2-70 Revenue growth had in the wind energy business in 2007 .................... 2-165

EBI Report 4120


Figure 2-71 Revenue growth anticipated in your wind energy business in 2008...... 2-166 Figure 2-72 Company expansion in 2008-2010......................................................... 2-166 Figure 2-73 Recent expansions and expansion plans ................................................ 2-167 Figure 2-74 Demand for wind power outstripping supply in 2008; the most acute bottlenecks in the supply chain .................................................................................... 2-167 Figure 2-75 Wind energy supply ............................................................................... 2-168 Figure 2-76 Conditions or factors needed to achieve the 20% Wind Energy Goal... 2-169 Figure 2-77 Conditions/factors most likely to derail this goal .................................. 2-169 Figure 2-78 Why choose the wind power field as a focus......................................... 2-170

Climate Change Report 4130


Table of Contents 3. BioEnergy Industry.................................................................................................. 3-5

3.1. Bioenergy Industry Overview.......................................................................... 3-5 3.1.1. 2013 Biofuels Industry Overview............................................................ 3-5 3.1.2. 2008 Bioenergy Industry Overview....................................................... 3-18 3.1.3. Biofuels Industry Reels in 2008............................................................. 3-20

3.2. Second Generation Biofuels .......................................................................... 3-24 3.2.1. Ethanol ................................................................................................... 3-24

3.3. Algae.............................................................................................................. 3-28 3.3.1. Investor Perspective ............................................................................... 3-28 3.3.2. Algae-to-Energy Research Projects ....................................................... 3-30

3.4. Forest Biorefining .......................................................................................... 3-33 3.4.1. Forest Biorefining Gains Ground in Europe.......................................... 3-33 3.4.2. Integrated Forest Biorefining................................................................. 3-38 3.4.3. Weyerhaeuser JV with Chevron to Exploit Intercropping..................... 3-41 3.4.4. Profile: Shell Bets on Biofuels............................................................... 3-42

3.5. Biodiesel ........................................................................................................ 3-44 3.5.1. Biodiesel: 2013 Review ......................................................................... 3-44 3.5.2. Palm Oil ................................................................................................. 3-51 3.5.3. Biodiesel: 2008 Review ........................................................................ 3-53 3.5.4. Renewable Energy Group ReEngineers for Feedstock Divesity ........... 3-54 3.5.5. Profile: Tellurian Biodiesel.................................................................... 3-57 3.5.6. German Biodiesel................................................................................... 3-59 3.5.7. Profile: Fulcrum Bioenergy ................................................................... 3-59 3.5.8. Profile: POET......................................................................................... 3-61 3.5.9. Brazil’s Sugarcane Ethanol Industry ..................................................... 3-63

3.6. Biomass Electric Power ................................................................................. 3-65 3.6.1. Biomass Market in 2012 ........................................................................ 3-65 3.6.2. Biomass Power....................................................................................... 3-69 3.6.3. Combustion ............................................................................................ 3-69 3.6.4. Profile: Renegy Holdings....................................................................... 3-71 3.6.5. Profile: Decker ....................................................................................... 3-72 3.6.6. Profile: Southern Company.................................................................... 3-73

3.7. Landfill Gas ................................................................................................... 3-74 3.7.1. Linde Group Targets Transport Sectors................................................. 3-74 3.7.2. Waste Management’s Fleet Transition and RD&D............................... 3-77 3.7.3. Waste-to-Energy in 2012 ....................................................................... 3-80 3.7.4. Landfill Gas in 2008 .............................................................................. 3-85

3.8. Anaerobic Digestion ...................................................................................... 3-87 3.8.1. Farm Waste ............................................................................................ 3-88 3.8.2. Biomass Power In Europe and Asia....................................................... 3-89 3.8.3. Profile: SEaB Energy............................................................................. 3-91 3.8.4. Q&A: Harvest Power............................................................................. 3-92

3.9. CCBJ’s Bioenergy Survey 2008 .................................................................... 3-94 3.9.1. Highlights of CCBJ’s Bioenergy Survey............................................... 3-94

BioEnergy Industry


Table of Figures Figure 3-1 U.S. Bioenergy Industry, 1990-2015e ($mil)............................................. 3-16 Figure 3-2 2012 Existing and Scheduled Biorefinery Start-Ups ................................. 3-17 Figure 3-3 Biofuel: OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2012-2021 ............................ 3-18 Figure 3-4 U.S. Bioenergy Industry, 2004-2012 ($Mil).............................................. 3-19 Figure 3-5 Stock Performance of Biofuel Companies 2007-2008............................... 3-23 Figure 3-6 DOE Funding for Small-Scale Biorefineries Projects ............................... 3-27 Figure 3-7 Algae-to-Energy Companies...................................................................... 3-31 Figure 3-8 Bioenergy Project Categories Targeted for Funding with EU’s NER 300 3-37 Figure 3-9 Demonstration Plants for Advanced Biofuels Production in Europe......... 3-38 Figure 3-10 Palm Oil Supply and Demand, 2005-2012 .............................................. 3-53 Figure 3-11 Top U.S. Biodiesel Plants in 2007 ........................................................... 3-56 Figure 3-12 Global Biofuels ........................................................................................ 3-64 Figure 3-13 Sample Carbon-Offset Biomass Projects In Asia .................................... 3-90 Figure 3-14 Company Category................................................................................... 3-95 Figure 3-15 Recent Annual Growth in Biofuels Production ....................................... 3-95 Figure 3-16 Average Annual Growth Forecast............................................................ 3-96 Figure 3-17 Rising Food Prices ................................................................................... 3-96 Figure 3-18 Opinion: Biofuels Mandates ................................................................... 3-96 Figure 3-19 Percentage of Biofuels Subsidies or Gov’t Support will be Reduced in 2008-12 .......................................................................................................................... 3-97 Figure 3-20 Biofuels Mandates that will be Repealed or Adjusted Downward in Europe........................................................................................................................................ 3-97 Figure 3-21 Percentage of U.S. Transport Fuel Supplied by Biofuels in 2030 ........... 3-97 Figure 3-22 Percentage of European Transport Fuel Supplied by Biofuels in 2020... 3-98 Figure 3-23 Percentage of European Transport Fuel Supplied by Biofuels in 2030... 3-98 Figure 3-24 Percentage of Chinese Transport Fuel Supplied by Biofuels in 2020 ..... 3-98 Figure 3-25 Percentage of Chinese Transport Fuel Supplied by Biofuels in 2030 ..... 3-99 Figure 3-26 Percentage of Indian Transport Fuel Supplied by Biofuels in 2020 ........ 3-99 Figure 3-27 Percentage of Indian Transport Fuel Supplied by Biofuels in 2030 ........ 3-99 Figure 3-28 Percentage of Worldwide Transport Fuel Supplied by Biofuels in 2020 .... 3-100 Figure 3-29 Percentage of Worldwide Transport Fuel Supplied by Biofuels in 2030 .... 3-100 Figure 3-30 Percentage of Transport Miles Traveled by Alternative-Fuel Vehicles in 2020 in U.S. ................................................................................................................. 3-100 Figure 3-31 Percentage of Transport Miles Traveled by Alternative-Fuel Vehicles in 2030 in U.S. ................................................................................................................. 3-101 Figure 3-32 Estimated Date of Low Cost Cellulosic Ethanol.................................... 3-101 Figure 3-33 Estimated Date of Low Cost Algae Biofuels ......................................... 3-101 Figure 3-34 Percentage of Biodiesel Production by Emerging Feedstock Crops in 2020...................................................................................................................................... 3-102 Figure 3-35 Percentage of Biodiesel Production by Emerging Feedstock Crops in 2020...................................................................................................................................... 3-102 Figure 3-36 CCBJ Bionenergy Survey Opinion Question 1, Table I ........................ 3-103



Figure 3-37 CCBJ Bionenergy Survey Opinion Question 1, Table II....................... 3-104 Figure 3-38 CCBJ Bionenergy Survey Opinion Question 2, Table I ........................ 3-104 Figure 3-39 CCBJ Bionenergy Survey Opinion Question 2, Table II....................... 3-105 Figure 3-40 CCBJ Bionenergy Survey Opinion Question 3, Table I ........................ 3-106 Figure 3-41 CCBJ Bionenergy Survey Opinion Question 3, Table II....................... 3-107 Figure 3-42 CCBJ Bionenergy Survey Opinion Question 4, Table I ........................ 3-107 Figure 3-43 CCBJ Bionenergy Survey Opinion Question 4, Table II....................... 3-108 Figure 3-44 CCBJ Bionenergy Survey Opinion Question 5, Table I ........................ 3-108 Figure 3-45 CCBJ Bionenergy Survey Opinion Question 5, Table II....................... 3-109 Figure 3-46 CCBJ Bionenergy Survey Opinion Question 6, Table I ........................ 3-109 Figure 3-47 CCBJ Bionenergy Survey Opinion Question 6, Table II....................... 3-110 Figure 3-48 CCBJ Bionenergy Survey Opinion Question 7, Table I ........................ 3-110 Figure 3-49 CCBJ Bionenergy Survey Opinion Question 7, Table II....................... 3-111



Table of Contents 4. Geothermal Energy................................................................................................ 4-5

4.1. Geothermal Industry Review ........................................................................... 4-5 4.1.1. 2012 North American Geothermal Industry Review............................... 4-5 4.1.2. Top 12 Geothermal Developments in 2012 ........................................... 4-11 4.1.3. 2009 Global Geothermal Industry Review ............................................ 4-13 4.1.4. How Geothermal Stacks Up Against Other Renewables....................... 4-19 4.1.5. Long-Term Market Drivers.................................................................... 4-23

4.2. Direct Use Geothermal .................................................................................. 4-27 4.3. Geothermal Industry Gameboard................................................................... 4-29 4.4. Geothermal Developers ................................................................................. 4-30

4.4.1. New Wave of Developers ...................................................................... 4-31 4.4.2. Drill, Baby, Drill .................................................................................... 4-32

4.5. Geothermal Power in Developing Countries ................................................. 4-36 4.5.1. Case Study: Kenya................................................................................. 4-37 4.5.2. Ranking Developing Country Markets .................................................. 4-38 4.5.3. Indonesia ................................................................................................ 4-39 4.5.4. Governments and Funding Institutions.................................................. 4-40 4.5.5. New Markets: Chile, Turkey and Hungary............................................ 4-41

4.6. Case Study: Trouble In Central America....................................................... 4-42 4.7. ARRA Opportunities in Renewables ............................................................. 4-42

4.7.1. Where to Find Bid Opportunities........................................................... 4-44 4.8. Profile: Ormat ................................................................................................ 4-47 4.9. Profiles: Technology Providers...................................................................... 4-52

4.9.1. United Technologies .............................................................................. 4-52 4.9.2. Raser Gains Efficiency With Networking ............................................. 4-53 4.9.3. Turbine Air Systems .............................................................................. 4-55 4.9.4. Exorka .................................................................................................... 4-55 4.9.5. Ormat in EGS......................................................................................... 4-56 4.9.6. Nevada Geothermal Power .................................................................... 4-58

4.10. Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) ...................................................... 4-61 4.10.1. EGS Basics............................................................................................. 4-62 4.10.2. Hot Dry Rock vs. Hot Wet Rock ........................................................... 4-63

4.11. CCBJ Geothermal Power Survey 2009 Responses.................................... 4-66 4.11.1. CCBJ Geothermal Survey Responses: Summary Tables....................... 4-66

Table of Figures

Figure 4-1 U.S. Geothermal Industry ($mil): 2003-2014 ............................................ 4-10 Figure 4-2 Global Geothermal Industry ($mil): 2003-2014 ........................................ 4-11 Figure 4-3 U.S. Geothermal Development Completed in 2011 and 2012................... 4-11 Figure 4-4 Geothermal Capacity, 2003-2020 estim. (MW installed and operational) 4-13 Figure 4-5 Geothermal Capacity (MW installed and operational), 2003-2020 ........... 4-14 Figure 4-6 Geothermal Capacity (Added Capacity MW), 2003-2020 ........................ 4-15 Figure 4-7 Geothermal Capacity (GWh generated), 2003-2020 ................................. 4-15 Figure 4-8 Global Geothermal Industry ($mil), 2003-2020 ........................................ 4-16 Figure 4-9 Global Geothermal Capacity and Development Pipeline .......................... 4-16

Geothermal Markets


Figure 4-10 World installed capacity, electricity production and capacity factor of geothermal power plants 1995-2005 and forecasts for 2010-2050................................ 4-17 Figure 4-11 Source shares in world electricity generation 2006 (International Energy Agency).......................................................................................................................... 4-17 Figure 4-12 U.S. Geothermal Industry ($mil) ............................................................. 4-18 Figure 4-13 Annual Growth in Global Geothermal Energy Industry 2004 – 2020 ..... 4-18 Figure 4-14 U.S. Geothermal Industry ($mil) ............................................................. 4-19 Figure 4-15 Annual Growth in U.S. Geothermal Energy Industry 2004 – 2020......... 4-19 Figure 4-16 Typical Market Drivers for Renewable Energy ....................................... 4-20 Figure 4-17 Capacity Factors for Selected Renewables (Average Net Capacity %)... 4-21 Figure 4-18 Levelized Costs: Generation Cost Range ($/MWh)................................. 4-22 Figure 4-19 U.S. Geothermal Power Capacity On-Line by State in 2009................... 4-23 Figure 4-20 Western States' Near-Term New Geothermal Power Capacity ............... 4-24 Figure 4-21 Percentage of U.S. Electricity Generation From Non-Hydro Renewable Sources in 2020.............................................................................................................. 4-25 Figure 4-22 Percentage of U.S. Electricity Generation From Non-Hydro Renewable Sources in 2050.............................................................................................................. 4-26 Figure 4-23 Geothermal Energy: Opportunity and Challenge..................................... 4-27 Figure 4-24 Top Fifteen Countries Utilizing Geothermal Energy in 2005.................. 4-28 Figure 4-25 Geothermal Direct Use............................................................................. 4-28 Figure 4-26 Direct applications of geothermal worldwide in 2004 by percentage of total energy use ...................................................................................................................... 4-29 Figure 4-27 Typical Geothermal Project Development Process.................................. 4-34 Figure 4-28 Leading Geothermal Power Market Participants, Table 1 ....................... 4-35 Figure 4-29 Leading Geothermal Power Market Participants, Table II ...................... 4-36 Figure 4-30 Global Geothermal Markets Rating ......................................................... 4-39 Figure 4-31 Recommendations for DOE for Utilization of the $400 million in ARRA or Stimulus Funds for Geothermal Energy ........................................................................ 4-43 Figure 4-32 DOE’s Primary Energy Service Performance Contractors ...................... 4-45 Figure 4-33 Reasons for Regional Variations in U.S. Geothermal Power Prices........ 4-46 Figure 4-34 Ormat 2008 Revenues ($mil) ................................................................... 4-47 Figure 4-35 Ormat Revenues, 2004-2008 ($mil)......................................................... 4-48 Figure 4-36 Ormat Electricity Revenues: 2008 ($mil) ................................................ 4-49 Figure 4-37 Ormat Product Revenues: Expected Sales in 2009 ($mil) ....................... 4-50 Figure 4-38 Ormat Projects.......................................................................................... 4-51 Figure 4-39 BLM Geothermal Competitive Leases by Acres, 2007–Present ............. 4-54 Figure 4-40 Typical Geothermal Power Plant Development Costs ($/kw) ................. 4-57 Figure 4-41 Cost of Developing a Geothermal Project ............................................... 4-59 Figure 4-42 U.S. Investment needs for current projects only ...................................... 4-60 Figure 4-43 Global geothermal capacity 1970-2010: GW .......................................... 4-61 Figure 4-44 U.S. Geothermal Energy Consulting & Engineering and Construction ($mil)........................................................................................................................................ 4-61 Figure 4-45 Survey Respondent Pool .......................................................................... 4-66 Figure 4-46 Countries or regions active: ..................................................................... 4-66 Figure 4-47 Countries or regions expected to be active .............................................. 4-67



Figure 4-48 Regions where Geothermal Companies Expect to Increase Work in 2009-2011................................................................................................................................ 4-67 Figure 4-49 Opinions on Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS)................................ 4-68 Figure 4-50 Recommendations for DOE’s $400 million in ARRA Funds.................. 4-68 Figure 4-51 Developing Markets with Most Promise.................................................. 4-69 Figure 4-52 Reasons for Regional Variations in Geothermal Power Prices in the U.S... 4-70 Figure 4-53 Forecast for conventional hydrothermal power ....................................... 4-70



Table of Contents

5. Wave & Tidal ......................................................................................................... 5-3 5.1. 2012 Waves, Tidal and River Power Overview............................................... 5-3

5.1.1. U.S. Hydrokinetic Energy Industry Showcases Tidal Projects................ 5-3 5.2. 2008 Waves, Tidal and River Power Overview............................................... 5-8

5.2.1. Investor Interest ....................................................................................... 5-9 5.2.2. First Commercial Plants......................................................................... 5-10 5.2.3. Cost of Electricity from WECs .............................................................. 5-13 5.2.4. Schedule for Commercial Success......................................................... 5-14 5.2.5. Wave Turbine Background .................................................................... 5-15 5.2.6. River Instream Energy Conversion (RISEC) and Tidal Instream Energy Conversion (TISEC) .............................................................................................. 5-16 5.2.7. Leading Players in Tidal Power............................................................. 5-17 5.2.8. Tidal Power Background ....................................................................... 5-18 5.2.9. Verdant Power Leads in TISEC............................................................. 5-19 5.2.10. Commercial Wave Energy..................................................................... 5-20 5.2.11. Profile: Free Flow Power ....................................................................... 5-23

Table of Figures

Figure 5-1 New U.S. Hydropower by 2025................................................................... 5-8 Figure 5-2 U.S. Wave Energy Projects (in MW)......................................................... 5-11 Figure 5-3 Most Attractive Markets for Wave & Tidal Energy .................................. 5-12 Figure 5-4 Installed and Planned U.S. Tidal Energy Capacity (in MW)..................... 5-17 Figure 5-5 U.S. Wave and Tidal Industry 2007- 2025 ................................................ 5-19 Figure 5-6 U.S. Wave and Tidal Industry.................................................................... 5-21



Table of Contents

6. Carbon Capture And Storage ................................................................................... 6-5 6.1. CCS Strategic Review.................................................................................... 6-5

6.1.1. CCS in Next 25 Years.............................................................................. 6-5 6.1.2. Electricity and Coal Statistical Review.................................................... 6-6 6.1.3. European CCS Activity.......................................................................... 6-11 6.1.4. Coal-Exporting Countries ...................................................................... 6-12 6.1.5. Coal-Producing States............................................................................ 6-13 6.1.6. CCS Activity in Canada......................................................................... 6-14 6.1.7. Government Support Needed................................................................. 6-15 6.1.8. Carbon Capture & Storage 2009 Update ............................................... 6-18

6.2. Technology and EPC Vendors in CCS ...................................................... 6-23 6.2.1. Utility Activities..................................................................................... 6-25 6.2.2. Blue Source............................................................................................ 6-30

6.3. Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR)................................................................... 6-33 6.3.1. Projecting the Behavior of CO2 Underground ...................................... 6-34 6.3.2. Mineral Rights and Business Models .................................................... 6-36 6.3.3. Saline Reservoirs ................................................................................... 6-37 6.3.4. Pipes or Wires? ...................................................................................... 6-38

6.4. Expert Opinions on CCS............................................................................. 6-38 6.4.1. Obstacles for Insurance and Financial Communities............................. 6-38 6.4.2. Competition in Post-Combustion Technology....................................... 6-40

6.5. Company Profiles......................................................................................... 6-41 6.5.1. Alstom.................................................................................................... 6-41 6.5.2. Powerspan .............................................................................................. 6-42 6.5.3. HTC Purenergy ...................................................................................... 6-43 6.5.4. Mitsubishi .............................................................................................. 6-45 6.5.5. Carbozyme ............................................................................................. 6-45 6.5.6. Air Products ........................................................................................... 6-46 6.5.7. Siemens .................................................................................................. 6-48

6.6. Environmental Consulting Firms in CCS ................................................. 6-50 6.6.1. Ecology and Environment...................................................................... 6-50

6.7. CCBJ’s Carbon Capture & Storage Survey 2008 .................................... 6-52

Carbon Capture & Storage


Table of Figures Figure 6-1 Profile of Worldwide Large Stationary CO2 Sources.................................. 6-5 Figure 6-2 World Electricity Generation by Fuel, 2004-2030 (in Trillion Kilowatthours).......................................................................................................................................... 6-7 Figure 6-3 World Coal Consumption by Region, 2004-2030 (quadrillion BTUs)........ 6-7 Figure 6-4 Coal Consumption in China by Sector, 2004, 2015, and 2030 (quadrillion BTUs)............................................................................................................................... 6-7 Figure 6-5 Coal Prices 1991-2006 ................................................................................. 6-8 Figure 6-6 Estimated Cost of CCS................................................................................. 6-9 Figure 6-7 Percent of Coal Generation with CCS in Regions: 2010-2030.................... 6-9 Figure 6-8 Projected Size of Global CCS Industry...................................................... 6-10 Figure 6-9 Estimated Percent of Coal Generation with CCS in the USA ................... 6-11 Figure 6-10 Projected Size of U.S. CCS Industry ....................................................... 6-11 Figure 6-11 Selected Major Carbon Capture & Storage Projects in 2008, Table I ..... 6-17 Figure 6-12 Selected Major Carbon Capture & Storage Projects in 2008, Table II.... 6-18 Figure 6-13 Three CCS Technologies ......................................................................... 6-24 Figure 6-14 Competitors in CCS Technology ............................................................. 6-27 Figure 6-15 Cost Ranges for CCS System Components ............................................. 6-29 Figure 6-16 Company or Organization Category ........................................................ 6-52 Figure 6-17 Percentage of U.S. Electricity Generation Coal in 2020.......................... 6-53 Figure 6-18 Percentage of U.S. Electricity Generation Coal in 2050.......................... 6-53 Figure 6-19 Percentage of U.S. Electricity Generation by Non-Hydro Renewable Sources in 2020.............................................................................................................. 6-54 Figure 6-20 Percentage of U.S. Electricity Generation by Non-Hydro Renewable Sources in 2050.............................................................................................................. 6-54 Figure 6-21 Estimated Year Carbon Emissions Regulation, Cap & Trade, Taxation, etc. will significantly impact the USA electricity generation mix ....................................... 6-55 Figure 6-22 Estimated year the Development of CCS Technology, Installation, and Operation of CCS systems with at least 10% of US electricity generation ................... 6-56 Figure 6-23 Impact of the Development of CCS Technology, Systems, and Prices on the USA electricity generation mix by 2020 ....................................................................... 6-56 Figure 6-24 CCS Systems that Increase the Operating Costs of a Typical Coal-Fired Power Plant Compared to Operating Costs ................................................................... 6-57 Figure 6-25 Significance of CCS in 2010.................................................................... 6-57 Figure 6-26 Significance of CCS in 2020.................................................................... 6-57 Figure 6-27 Significance of CCS in 2030.................................................................... 6-58 Figure 6-28 Estimated Revenues Derived from CCS-Related Activities in 2008....... 6-58 Figure 6-29 Estimated Revenues Derived from CCS-Related Activities in 2010....... 6-58 Figure 6-30 Revenues Derived from CCS-Related Activities in 2015........................ 6-59 Figure 6-31 Revenues Derived from CCS-Related Activities in 2020........................ 6-59 Figure 6-32 Total U.S. Electricity Generating Capacity Equipped with CCS by 2020... 6-60 Figure 6-33 Opinion: Funding for a Smaller CCS RD&D vs. FutureGen................... 6-60 Figure 6-34 Opinion: Post-Combustion Capture ......................................................... 6-60 Figure 6-35 Opinion: Electricity Source Mix Trends .................................................. 6-61



Figure 6-36 CCS Industry Revenues Generated by Service & Equip. Providers in the U.S. in 2020 ................................................................................................................... 6-62 Figure 6-37 Opinion: Government Policies and/or Intergovernmental Agreements most Important for Advancing CCS Technology................................................................... 6-63 Figure 6-38 Opinion: Overcoming “Not Under My Backyard” Opposition to CO2 Storage Facilities............................................................................................................ 6-64 Figure 6-39 Opinion: CCS RD&D vs. FutureGen Table I .......................................... 6-65 Figure 6-40 Opinion: CCS vs. FutureGen Table II...................................................... 6-66 Figure 6-41 Impact of US DOE’s Decision on the Emerging CCS Sector Table I ..... 6-66 Figure 6-42 Impact of US DOE’s Decision on the Emerging CCS Sector Table II.... 6-67 Figure 6-43 Opinion: Post-Combustion Capture “the most globally relevant” Table I 6-67 Figure 6-44 Opinion: Post-Combustion Capture “the most globally relevant” Table II6-68 Figure 6-45 Opinion: Post-Combustion Capture “the most globally relevant” Table III........................................................................................................................................ 6-69 Figure 6-46 Opinion: Impact of UK gov’t Decision on the Emerging CCS Sector, Table I ...................................................................................................................................... 6-69 Figure 6-47 Opinion: Impact of UK gov’t Decision on the Emerging CCS Sector, Table I ...................................................................................................................................... 6-70 Figure 6-48 Country and Date of First Three Commercial-Scale CCS-Equipped Coal-Fired Power Plants, Table I............................................................................................ 6-70 Figure 6-49 Country and Date of First Three Commercial-Scale CCS-Equipped Coal-Fired Power Plants, Table II .......................................................................................... 6-71 Figure 6-50 Opinion: Affect on Coal Power in 2012 if CCS Technology Ready for Widespread Deployment Table I ................................................................................... 6-72 Figure 6-51 Opinion: Affect on Coal Power in 2012 if CCS Technology Ready for Widespread Deployment Table II.................................................................................. 6-73 Figure 6-52 Opinion: CCS vs. Nuclear Table I ........................................................... 6-73 Figure 6-53 Opinion: CCS vs. Nuclear Table II .......................................................... 6-74 Figure 6-54 Country and Date CCS to be Deployed on Commercial CCNG Plants... 6-75



TABLE OF CONTENTS

7. ENERGY EFFICIENCY & DEMAND RESPONSE.................................................................... 7-4 7.1. EE&DR MARKET OVERVIEW 2014 .......................................................................................... 7-4

7.1.1. UK Energy Efficiency Programs Making Progress........................................................... 7-10 7.2. EE&DR MARKET OVERVIEW 2010 ........................................................................................ 7-15

7.2.1. Drivers: State and Federal Policy ..................................................................................... 7-18 7.2.2. Service Providers Must Aggregate .................................................................................... 7-25

7.3. INVESTMENT TRENDS IN EE&DR ........................................................................................... 7-29 7.3.1. Property-Assessed Clean Energy (PACE) ......................................................................... 7-29 7.3.2. VC and Equity Financing .................................................................................................. 7-38 7.3.3. Deal Summary: EPS Corp. ................................................................................................ 7-42 7.3.4. Deal Summary:Luminus Device ........................................................................................ 7-43 7.3.5. Deal Summary: Ember Corp. ............................................................................................ 7-43

7.4. ENERGY EFFICIENCY............................................................................................................... 7-44 7.4.1. Energy Service Companies ................................................................................................ 7-44 7.4.2. Impact of the Stimulus Package......................................................................................... 7-48 7.4.3. Multifamily Energy Efficiency Programs .......................................................................... 7-49 7.4.4. ESCO Profile: Ameresco ................................................................................................... 7-52 7.4.5. New Business Models in Energy Efficiency ....................................................................... 7-58 7.4.6. Profile: Metrus Uses ESAs ................................................................................................ 7-59 7.4.7. Profile: SAIC Bridges the Consultant ESCO Model.......................................................... 7-60 7.4.8. Profile: Quantum Energy Services and Technologies ....................................................... 7-63 7.4.9. Profile: Optimum Energy .................................................................................................. 7-65 7.4.10. Profile: Schneider Electric .......................................................................................... 7-66 7.4.11. Profile: Efficiency Grid................................................................................................ 7-70 7.4.12. Profile: Siemens BPS ................................................................................................... 7-72 7.4.13. Q&A: Pneu-Logic ........................................................................................................ 7-74 7.4.14. Case Study: Stanford University .................................................................................. 7-77

7.5. ROLE OF UTILITIES IN EE&DR ............................................................................................... 7-82 7.5.1. FirstFuel’s Remote Building Analytics.............................................................................. 7-85

7.6. SMART BUILDING SYSTEMS .................................................................................................... 7-88 7.6.1. Mega Trends in Smart Building Systems ........................................................................... 7-90

7.7. DEMAND RESPONSE ................................................................................................................ 7-91 7.7.1. Demand Response Business Expanding in 2012 ............................................................... 7-91 7.7.2. Demand Response Comes of Age as Market in 2008......................................................... 7-98 7.7.3. Smart Grid Linked With DR .............................................................................................. 7-99 7.7.4. Demand Response and Climate Change.......................................................................... 7-107 7.7.5. Demand Response: Bidding and Selling on the Capacity Market ................................... 7-109 7.7.6. Curtailment Services Booming for Two DR Leaders....................................................... 7-110 7.7.7. Profile: KiWi Power ........................................................................................................ 7-110 7.7.8. Profile: Comverge ........................................................................................................... 7-112 7.7.9. Profile: EnerNOC............................................................................................................ 7-118 7.7.10. Profile: TRC Companies............................................................................................. 7-120

7.8. COMBINED HEAT AND POWER .............................................................................................. 7-122 7.8.1. 2013 Overview: Combined Heat and Power ................................................................... 7-122 7.8.2. Germany Takes Steps to Keep CHP Growing ................................................................. 7-131 7.8.3. Waste Heat to Power ....................................................................................................... 7-134 7.8.4. Hybrid Solar CHP ........................................................................................................... 7-138 7.8.5. Profile: Veolia Energy..................................................................................................... 7-141 7.8.6. Q&A: MWH Global......................................................................................................... 7-144

7.9. GEOTHERMAL HEAT PUMPS.................................................................................................. 7-146

Energy Efficiency & Demand Response


Table of Figures

Figure 7-1 U.S. Energy Efficiency & Demand Response Industry 2011-2014............. 7-5 Figure 7-2 Energy Efficiency System Leaders: 2008-2013 (Revenues in $bil) ............ 7-9 Figure 7-3 The U.S. Energy Efficiency & Demand Response Industry 2000-2010.... 7-16 Figure 7-4 U.S. Energy Efficiency & Demand Response Industry 2008 .................... 7-17 Figure 7-5 Assessment of Achievable Potential from Energy Efficiency and Demand Response Programs in the U.S. (2010-2030)................................................................. 7-19 Figure 7-6 U.S. Greenhouse Gas Intensity (MTCO2e per $Million in GDP .............. 7-20 Figure 7-7 Average Annual Reductions in U.S. Energy Intensity, 1949-2008 ........... 7-21 Figure 7-8 U.S. Greenhouse Gas Intensity and Related Factors, 1990 to 2007 .......... 7-22 Figure 7-9 U.S. Energy Efficiency & Demand Response Industry 2007-2009........... 7-23 Figure 7-10 Select ENERGY STAR Appliance and Electronics Statistics, 2004....... 7-24 Figure 7-11 Efficiency Premium Investments by Sector in 2004................................ 7-26 Figure 7-12 Energy Efficiency Investments Summary (2004) ..................................... 7-27 Figure 7-13 Adding Up Contributions to Energy Service Demands (Quads)* ........... 7-27 Figure 7-14 PACE Projects by Building Type and Type of Improvement: 2009-2014 .. 7-37 Figure 7-15 Venture Capital Investment in EE, DR, and Smart Grid ......................... 7-39 Figure 7-16 Global Energy Efficiency Venture Investment 2000-2009..................... 7-41 Figure 7-17 Largest Energy Efficiency Venture Capital or Private Equity Deals: 2007-2009................................................................................................................................ 7-42 Figure 7-18 U.S. Energy Efficiency ESCO Revenue, 2000–2010 .............................. 7-44 Figure 7-19 2006 ESCO Industry Revenues by Market Segment ............................... 7-45 Figure 7-20 Top USA Energy Service Contractors in 2008........................................ 7-46 Figure 7-21 Energy & Climate Change Spending Programs in the ARRA ($bil)....... 7-55 Figure 7-22 U.S. Energy Efficiency Appliances, Devices & Equipment Sales in 2008 ($Mil) ............................................................................................................................. 7-84 Figure 7-23 Universe of Energy Efficiency Appliances, Devices & Equipment Companies (in $Mil) ...................................................................................................... 7-85 Figure 7-24 Demand Response Services 2004-2009................................................... 7-98 Figure 7-25 Smartgrid/DR Equipment & Systems .................................................... 7-100 Figure 7-26 Penetration of Smart or AMI Meters in the USA .................................. 7-101 Figure 7-27 2008 U.S. Residential Energy Use per Household by Region............... 7-102 Figure 7-28 U.S. Residential Use per Household by Region (kwh per household) .. 7-103 Figure 7-29 2008 U.S. Industrial Electricity Use by Region and End Use (TWh).... 7-105 Figure 7-30 PJM Reliability Pricing Model Base Residual Auction 2008-2013....... 7-109 Figure 7-31 U.S. Commercial Buildings Energy Intensity (Mil. Btu per Building) 1992-2003.............................................................................................................................. 7-114 Figure 7-32 U.S. Residential Energy Intensity Using Site Energy by Census Region and Type of Housing Unit, 1978-2001 (Million Btu per Household) ................................ 7-115 Figure 7-33 Iron and Steel Manufacturing Energy Intensities................................... 7-115 Figure 7-34 U.S. Commercial Buildings Energy Intensity Using Site Energy by Census Region and Principle Activity, 1992-2003 .................................................................. 7-116 Figure 7-35 Top 10 CHP Plants by Mwe in U.S., 2012 ............................................ 7-131



Table of Contents 8. Future of the grid ................................................................................................... 8-5

8.1. Transmission Overview................................................................................. 8-5 8.1.1. Future of Electricity Transmission........................................................... 8-5 8.1.2. HVDC Transmission.............................................................................. 8-21

8.2. Transmission Company Profiles................................................................. 8-30 8.2.1. Profile: ITC ............................................................................................ 8-30 8.2.2. Profile: Burns & McDonnell.................................................................. 8-37 8.2.3. Profile: Oncor......................................................................................... 8-39 8.2.4. Profile: Sega Inc..................................................................................... 8-41

8.3. Advanced Metering Infrastructure (AMI) ................................................ 8-48 8.3.1. New Visibility and Control to Distribution Grid ................................... 8-48 8.3.2. Growth of Smart Meter Business........................................................... 8-52

8.4. Energy Management.................................................................................... 8-57 8.4.1. Building Automation Systems ............................................................... 8-57 8.4.2. Microgrids Move On to Full Scale Implementation .............................. 8-67

8.5. Demand Response and Dynamic Pricing................................................... 8-76 8.5.1. Defining Demand Response .................................................................. 8-76 8.5.2. 2012: Demand Response Business Expanding ...................................... 8-77 8.5.3. Texas Leads in Smart Grids, Faces DR Challenges .............................. 8-85 8.5.4. Dynamic Pricing Still Faces Barriers..................................................... 8-91

8.6. Distribution Company Profiles................................................................... 8-94 8.6.1. Profile: SMUD....................................................................................... 8-94 8.6.2. Profile: Tendril....................................................................................... 8-97 8.6.3. Profile: Chevron Energy Solutions ...................................................... 8-101 8.6.4. Profile: ENBALA ................................................................................ 8-105 8.6.5. Profile: Computer Sciences Corp......................................................... 8-108 8.6.6. Profile: Science Applications International Corp. (SAIC) .................. 8-110 8.6.7. Profile: IBM......................................................................................... 8-112

8.7. Appendix..................................................................................................... 8-115 8.7.1. Revisiting Energy Storage ................................................................... 8-115

Future of the Grid


Table of Figures

Figure 8-1 Historical and Projected U.S. Transmission Investment ($mil): 1995-2015 8-7 Figure 8-2 Planning and Regulating the Transmission Grid ......................................... 8-7 Figure 8-3 Drivers of Projected Circuit-Miles of Transmission Additions 2011-2015... 8-10 Figure 8-4 SAIC Annual Revenues: 1980-2012 in $mil ............................................. 8-12 Figure 8-5 Planning and Regulating the Transmission Grid ....................................... 8-17 Figure 8-6 Generic Transmission Investment Cost Breakdown.................................. 8-20 Figure 8-7 C&E Revenues from U.S. Electricity Transmission Projects ($bil) .......... 8-20 Figure 8-8 Transmission Investments in Canadian Markets........................................ 8-21 Figure 8-9 Transmission Project Developer Profiles................................................... 8-27 Figure 8-10 Transmission Companies ......................................................................... 8-28 Figure 8-11 HVDC U.S. Transmission Projects: March 2012 ..................................... 8-29 Figure 8-12 Upcoming ITC Projects............................................................................ 8-36 Figure 8-13 U.S. Smart Grid & Energy Management Market 2005-2011 .................. 8-44 Figure 8-14 U.S. Smart Grid & Energy Management Market contd. 20011-2016 ..... 8-44 Figure 8-15 Global Smart Grid & Energy Management Market 2005-2011............... 8-45 Figure 8-16 Global Smart Grid & Energy Management Market contd. 20011-2016.. 8-45 Figure 8-17 Global Venture Capital Investment in Smart Grid & Demand Response 8-46 Figure 8-18 Top Global Venture Investments in Smart Grid and Demand Response 2011-2012 ...................................................................................................................... 8-47 Figure 8-19 2012 MWs Under DR Mgmt.................................................................... 8-47 Figure 8-20 Electric Vehicle and Plug-In Hybrid EV Penetration Scenarios.............. 8-51 Figure 8-21 Types of Firms in the U.S. Smart Grid Market........................................ 8-53 Figure 8-22 Smart Grid Characteristics ....................................................................... 8-54 Figure 8-23 10 Smart Grid Vendors to Watch............................................................. 8-55 Figure 8-24 Penetration of Smart or AMI Meters in the USA: 2006-2019e ............... 8-55 Figure 8-25 Smart Meter Penetration Rates................................................................. 8-56 Figure 8-26 Global Shipments of Smart Meters .......................................................... 8-56 Figure 8-27 Smart Meter and Communications Vendors ............................................ 8-57 Figure 8-28 Global Building Energy Management Systems Revenue ($mil): 2010-2016e........................................................................................................................................ 8-62 Figure 8-29 Payback Times for Energy Conservation Measures Used In a Retrofit... 8-63 Figure 8-30 Pike Estimates Home Energy Management Market ................................ 8-64 Figure 8-31 List of HEM-HAN Vendors..................................................................... 8-65 Figure 8-32 List of Building Energy Management-Building Automation Systems (BEM-BAS) Companies ........................................................................................................... 8-66 Figure 8-33 Building Energy Management Consulting............................................... 8-67 Figure 8-34 Grid Analytics Sub-Segment Definitions................................................. 8-74 Figure 8-35 List of Grid Networking Companies........................................................ 8-75 Figure 8-36 Energy Management Software: Key Acquisitions 2010-2012................. 8-76 Figure 8-37 EnerNOC Revenues by Customer 2009-2011 ......................................... 8-79 Figure 8-38 Comverge Revenue by Product or Service: 2009-2011........................... 8-80 Figure 8-39 Regional Demand Response Potential (% of Peak Demand)................... 8-81



Figure 8-40 U.S. Demand Response Forecast (in GW, based on policy mix) ............ 8-85 Figure 8-41 List of Demand Response Providers ........................................................ 8-90 Figure 8-42 2012 MWs Under DR Mgmt.................................................................... 8-90 Figure 8-43 List of Demand Response Providers ........................................................ 8-91 Figure 8-44 Milestones for Tendril............................................................................ 8-101 Figure 8-45 Itron 2008-2011 Revenues ($mil) and Meters Sold............................... 8-104 Figure 8-46 SAIC Annual Revenues: 1980-2012 in $mil ......................................... 8-112 Figure 8-47 Financial Attractiveness of Electricity Storage Applications and Related Technologies ................................................................................................................ 8-117 Figure 8-48 The Business Case for Balancing Energy is Quite Attractive................ 8-119 Figure 8-49 Storage Can Increase the Share of Base-Load Power Generation ......... 8-121 Figure 8-50 Market Potential of the Storage Technologies ....................................... 8-124



TABLE OF CONTENTS

7. ENERGY EFFICIENCY & DEMAND RESPONSE.................................................................... 7-4 7.1. EE&DR MARKET OVERVIEW 2014 .......................................................................................... 7-4

7.1.1. UK Energy Efficiency Programs Making Progress........................................................... 7-10 7.2. EE&DR MARKET OVERVIEW 2010 ........................................................................................ 7-15

7.2.1. Drivers: State and Federal Policy ..................................................................................... 7-18 7.2.2. Service Providers Must Aggregate .................................................................................... 7-25

7.3. INVESTMENT TRENDS IN EE&DR ........................................................................................... 7-29 7.3.1. Property-Assessed Clean Energy (PACE) ......................................................................... 7-29 7.3.2. VC and Equity Financing .................................................................................................. 7-38 7.3.3. Deal Summary: EPS Corp. ................................................................................................ 7-42 7.3.4. Deal Summary:Luminus Device ........................................................................................ 7-43 7.3.5. Deal Summary: Ember Corp. ............................................................................................ 7-43

7.4. ENERGY EFFICIENCY............................................................................................................... 7-44 7.4.1. Energy Service Companies ................................................................................................ 7-44 7.4.2. Impact of the Stimulus Package......................................................................................... 7-48 7.4.3. Multifamily Energy Efficiency Programs .......................................................................... 7-49 7.4.4. ESCO Profile: Ameresco ................................................................................................... 7-52 7.4.5. New Business Models in Energy Efficiency ....................................................................... 7-58 7.4.6. Profile: Metrus Uses ESAs ................................................................................................ 7-59 7.4.7. Profile: SAIC Bridges the Consultant ESCO Model.......................................................... 7-60 7.4.8. Profile: Quantum Energy Services and Technologies ....................................................... 7-63 7.4.9. Profile: Optimum Energy .................................................................................................. 7-65 7.4.10. Profile: Schneider Electric .......................................................................................... 7-66 7.4.11. Profile: Efficiency Grid................................................................................................ 7-70 7.4.12. Profile: Siemens BPS ................................................................................................... 7-72 7.4.13. Q&A: Pneu-Logic ........................................................................................................ 7-74 7.4.14. Case Study: Stanford University .................................................................................. 7-77

7.5. ROLE OF UTILITIES IN EE&DR ............................................................................................... 7-82 7.5.1. FirstFuel’s Remote Building Analytics.............................................................................. 7-85

7.6. SMART BUILDING SYSTEMS .................................................................................................... 7-88 7.6.1. Mega Trends in Smart Building Systems ........................................................................... 7-90

7.7. DEMAND RESPONSE ................................................................................................................ 7-91 7.7.1. Demand Response Business Expanding in 2012 ............................................................... 7-91 7.7.2. Demand Response Comes of Age as Market in 2008......................................................... 7-98 7.7.3. Smart Grid Linked With DR .............................................................................................. 7-99 7.7.4. Demand Response and Climate Change.......................................................................... 7-107 7.7.5. Demand Response: Bidding and Selling on the Capacity Market ................................... 7-109 7.7.6. Curtailment Services Booming for Two DR Leaders....................................................... 7-110 7.7.7. Profile: KiWi Power ........................................................................................................ 7-110 7.7.8. Profile: Comverge ........................................................................................................... 7-112 7.7.9. Profile: EnerNOC............................................................................................................ 7-118 7.7.10. Profile: TRC Companies............................................................................................. 7-120

7.8. COMBINED HEAT AND POWER .............................................................................................. 7-122 7.8.1. 2013 Overview: Combined Heat and Power ................................................................... 7-122 7.8.2. Germany Takes Steps to Keep CHP Growing ................................................................. 7-131 7.8.3. Waste Heat to Power ....................................................................................................... 7-134 7.8.4. Hybrid Solar CHP ........................................................................................................... 7-138 7.8.5. Profile: Veolia Energy..................................................................................................... 7-141 7.8.6. Q&A: MWH Global......................................................................................................... 7-144

7.9. GEOTHERMAL HEAT PUMPS.................................................................................................. 7-146

Energy Efficiency & Demand Response


Table of Figures

Figure 7-1 U.S. Energy Efficiency & Demand Response Industry 2011-2014............. 7-5 Figure 7-2 Energy Efficiency System Leaders: 2008-2013 (Revenues in $bil) ............ 7-9 Figure 7-3 The U.S. Energy Efficiency & Demand Response Industry 2000-2010.... 7-16 Figure 7-4 U.S. Energy Efficiency & Demand Response Industry 2008 .................... 7-17 Figure 7-5 Assessment of Achievable Potential from Energy Efficiency and Demand Response Programs in the U.S. (2010-2030)................................................................. 7-19 Figure 7-6 U.S. Greenhouse Gas Intensity (MTCO2e per $Million in GDP .............. 7-20 Figure 7-7 Average Annual Reductions in U.S. Energy Intensity, 1949-2008 ........... 7-21 Figure 7-8 U.S. Greenhouse Gas Intensity and Related Factors, 1990 to 2007 .......... 7-22 Figure 7-9 U.S. Energy Efficiency & Demand Response Industry 2007-2009........... 7-23 Figure 7-10 Select ENERGY STAR Appliance and Electronics Statistics, 2004....... 7-24 Figure 7-11 Efficiency Premium Investments by Sector in 2004................................ 7-26 Figure 7-12 Energy Efficiency Investments Summary (2004) ..................................... 7-27 Figure 7-13 Adding Up Contributions to Energy Service Demands (Quads)* ........... 7-27 Figure 7-14 PACE Projects by Building Type and Type of Improvement: 2009-2014 .. 7-37 Figure 7-15 Venture Capital Investment in EE, DR, and Smart Grid ......................... 7-39 Figure 7-16 Global Energy Efficiency Venture Investment 2000-2009..................... 7-41 Figure 7-17 Largest Energy Efficiency Venture Capital or Private Equity Deals: 2007-2009................................................................................................................................ 7-42 Figure 7-18 U.S. Energy Efficiency ESCO Revenue, 2000–2010 .............................. 7-44 Figure 7-19 2006 ESCO Industry Revenues by Market Segment ............................... 7-45 Figure 7-20 Top USA Energy Service Contractors in 2008........................................ 7-46 Figure 7-21 Energy & Climate Change Spending Programs in the ARRA ($bil)....... 7-55 Figure 7-22 U.S. Energy Efficiency Appliances, Devices & Equipment Sales in 2008 ($Mil) ............................................................................................................................. 7-84 Figure 7-23 Universe of Energy Efficiency Appliances, Devices & Equipment Companies (in $Mil) ...................................................................................................... 7-85 Figure 7-24 Demand Response Services 2004-2009................................................... 7-98 Figure 7-25 Smartgrid/DR Equipment & Systems .................................................... 7-100 Figure 7-26 Penetration of Smart or AMI Meters in the USA .................................. 7-101 Figure 7-27 2008 U.S. Residential Energy Use per Household by Region............... 7-102 Figure 7-28 U.S. Residential Use per Household by Region (kwh per household) .. 7-103 Figure 7-29 2008 U.S. Industrial Electricity Use by Region and End Use (TWh).... 7-105 Figure 7-30 PJM Reliability Pricing Model Base Residual Auction 2008-2013....... 7-109 Figure 7-31 U.S. Commercial Buildings Energy Intensity (Mil. Btu per Building) 1992-2003.............................................................................................................................. 7-114 Figure 7-32 U.S. Residential Energy Intensity Using Site Energy by Census Region and Type of Housing Unit, 1978-2001 (Million Btu per Household) ................................ 7-115 Figure 7-33 Iron and Steel Manufacturing Energy Intensities................................... 7-115 Figure 7-34 U.S. Commercial Buildings Energy Intensity Using Site Energy by Census Region and Principle Activity, 1992-2003 .................................................................. 7-116 Figure 7-35 Top 10 CHP Plants by Mwe in U.S., 2012 ............................................ 7-131



Table of Contents

10. The Green Building Industry.............................................................................. 10-5 10.1. Green Building Business Review 2014 ....................................................... 10-5

10.1.1. Case Study: SL Green Q&A................................................................ 10-15 10.2. Green Building Business Review 2010 ..................................................... 10-18

10.2.1. Middle East and Asian Demand .......................................................... 10-21 10.3. Trends and Market Drivers ...................................................................... 10-22

10.3.1. First Cost.............................................................................................. 10-27 10.4. Certification Issues .................................................................................... 10-29

10.4.1. LEED ................................................................................................... 10-29 10.4.2. Energy Analysts ................................................................................... 10-39 10.4.3. Commercial Office Development ........................................................ 10-41 10.4.4. Koll Builds Intellicenters ..................................................................... 10-42 10.4.5. Gerding Edlen Shaves LEED Premiums to a Minimum ..................... 10-43

10.5. Company Profiles....................................................................................... 10-44 10.5.1. Weather Analytics................................................................................ 10-44 10.5.2. Skanska USA ....................................................................................... 10-47 10.5.3. Q&A: Architecture 2030...................................................................... 10-48

10.6. Regional Profiles ........................................................................................ 10-50 10.6.1. Los Angeles ......................................................................................... 10-50 10.6.2. Pacific Northwest................................................................................. 10-52 10.6.3. Chicago ................................................................................................ 10-55 10.6.4. Wisconsin............................................................................................. 10-57 10.6.5. Texas .................................................................................................... 10-57 10.6.6. New York............................................................................................. 10-60

10.7. CCBJ's Green Building Survey 2008 ....................................................... 10-63

The Green Building Industry


Table of Figures Figure 10-1 The U.S. Green Building Industry 2010-2013 ($mil) .............................. 10-6 Figure 10-2 The U.S. Green Building Industry 2001-2014 ($mil), Non-Residential & Residential...................................................................................................................... 10-7 Figure 10-3 U.S. Buildling Revenue in Advanced Energy: 2011-2013 .................... 10-14 Figure 10-4 ENR Top Green Design Firms in 2012.................................................. 10-15 Figure 10-5 The U.S. Green Building Industry 2001-2012 ($mil) ............................ 10-19 Figure 10-6 The U.S. Green Building Industry 2001-2012 ($mil) ............................ 10-20 Figure 10-7 Total Put in Place ($Mil)........................................................................ 10-20 Figure 10-8 Components of Green Building ............................................................. 10-21 Figure 10-9 The Top 100 Green Design Firms (1-23)............................................... 10-22 Figure 10-10 The Top 100 Green Design Firms (24-50)........................................... 10-23 Figure 10-11 The Top 100 Green Design Firms (Table 51-72)................................. 10-25 Figure 10-12 The Top 100 Green Design Firms (Table 73-100)............................... 10-26 Figure 10-13 Footprint of Buildings .......................................................................... 10-27 Figure 10-14 Green Building Market in 2007 ........................................................... 10-28 Figure 10-15 Construction Put In Place Estimated for The United States ................ 10-28 Figure 10-16 Estimated and Projected Wholesale Revenues of the U.S. Green Building Material Market, 2002-2011 (in $Mil)......................................................................... 10-30 Figure 10-17 Growth of Green Office Space............................................................. 10-32 Figure 10-18 Some 84% Of Corporate Users Says They Will Own, Lease, Or Manage Green Properties In 5 Years......................................................................................... 10-34 Figure 10-19 Largest LEED-Certified Buildings ...................................................... 10-35 Figure 10-20 Extra Costs to Go Green Vary by Region............................................ 10-35 Figure 10-21 Leading Developers of Green Office Buildings as of Second Quarter 2007...................................................................................................................................... 10-36 Figure 10-22 Leading States for Green as of Second Quarter 2007 .......................... 10-37 Figure 10-23 U.S. LEED Certified Projects, by Certification Type and Selected State (1)...................................................................................................................................... 10-38 Figure 10-24 Leading Metro Areas for Green as of Second Quarter 2007 ............... 10-39 Figure 10-25 Number of LEED Projects by Project Type, 2005-2007 ..................... 10-40 Figure 10-26 Number of LEED Projects by Building Owner Type, 2005-2007....... 10-41 Figure 10-27 Leading Types of Tenants by Industry in Energy Star Office Buildings as of Second Quarter 2007 ............................................................................................... 10-43 Figure 10-28 2007 Living Building Challenge Winners ........................................... 10-52 Figure 10-29 Cascadia’s Platinum Buildings ............................................................ 10-54 Figure 10-30 10 Cost Effective Energy Efficiency in Apartment Buildings in NY..10-62 Figure 10-31 Types of companies.............................................................................. 10-63 Figure 10-32 Types of projects .................................................................................. 10-64 Figure 10-33 Percentage of Revenue from green building........................................ 10-64 Figure 10-34 2008 Growth......................................................................................... 10-65 Figure 10-35 Growth Forecast 2009-2012................................................................. 10-65 Figure 10-36 Market drivers ...................................................................................... 10-66 Figure 10-37 United States share 2008...................................................................... 10-66 Figure 10-38 United States share 2020...................................................................... 10-67



Figure 10-39 Cost premiums: Certified ..................................................................... 10-67 Figure 10-40 Cost premiums: Silver.......................................................................... 10-67 Figure 10-41 Cost premiums: Gold ........................................................................... 10-68 Figure 10-42 Cost premiums: Platinum..................................................................... 10-68 Figure 10-43 New York 2008.................................................................................... 10-68 Figure 10-44 New York 2020:................................................................................... 10-69 Figure 10-45 New York 2030.................................................................................... 10-69 Figure 10-46 Cascadia 2008 ...................................................................................... 10-69 Figure 10-47 Cascadia 2020 ...................................................................................... 10-70 Figure 10-48 Cascadia 2030 ...................................................................................... 10-70 Figure 10-49 Southern California 2008 ..................................................................... 10-70 Figure 10-50 Southern California 2020 ..................................................................... 10-71 Figure 10-51 Southern California 2030 ..................................................................... 10-71 Figure 10-52 Chicago 2008 ....................................................................................... 10-71 Figure 10-53 Chicago 2020 ....................................................................................... 10-72 Figure 10-54 Chicago 2030 ....................................................................................... 10-72 Figure 10-55 Houston 2008 ....................................................................................... 10-72 Figure 10-56 Houston 2020 ....................................................................................... 10-73 Figure 10-57 Houston 2030 ....................................................................................... 10-73 Figure 10-58 CCBJ Green Building Survey Opinions: Clients ................................. 10-74 Figure 10-59 CCBJ Green Building Survey Opinions: Challenges........................... 10-75 Figure 10-60 CCBJ Green Building Survey Opinions: Drivers ................................ 10-76 Figure 10-61 CCBJ Green Building Survey Opinions: LEED .................................. 10-77 Figure 10-62 CCBJ Green Building Survey Opinions: LEED Alternatives.............. 10-78

EBI Report 4600


Table of Contents

11. TRANSPORTATION...................................................................................... 11-4 11.1. Transportation Market Segments............................................................... 11-4

11.1.1. 2013 Transportation Market Overview.................................................. 11-4 11.1.2. Electric Vehicles and PHEVs in 2013 ................................................... 11-6 11.1.3. The NGV Market in North America.................................................... 11-16 11.1.4. Electric Land, Sea, and Air Vehicles ................................................... 11-20 11.1.5. Trends in Transportation Increase Challenge for Oil Companies ....... 11-24 11.1.6. 2008 Transportation Market Overview................................................ 11-26 11.1.7. Options Proposed by Planners and Designers ..................................... 11-31 11.1.8. Fuels & Biofuels .................................................................................. 11-35 11.1.9. Biobutanol and Aviation Fuel Promise Pockets of Growth................. 11-40 11.1.10. New Vehicle Technology ................................................................ 11-41 11.1.11. Transportation Engineering, Urban Planning and Smart Growth.... 11-50 11.1.12. Traffic Management & Intelligent Transportation Systems ........... 11-57 11.1.13. Trucking & Freight .......................................................................... 11-59 11.1.14. Venture Investment.......................................................................... 11-62

11.2. Company Profiles: Consultant Profiles.................................................... 11-66 11.2.1. Q&A: Hyben Industries ....................................................................... 11-66 11.2.2. David Evans and Associates: A Leading Practice in Sustainable Transportation ...................................................................................................... 11-69 11.2.3. FXFOWLE Architects: Sound Transit Options In Community Planning 11-72 11.2.4. AECOM: Advocating Bus Rapid Transit ............................................ 11-73 11.2.5. Greenman Pedersen: Tools in Transportation Planning and Engineering11-74 11.2.6. HOK: Committing To Sustainability in Planning................................ 11-77

11.3. Company Profiles: Manufacturer Profile................................................. 11-77 11.3.1. Ford Adds FFVs, HEVs and BEVs; Keeps a Watchful Eye on Industry Trends 11-77

Transportation


Table of Figures Figure 1-24 Transportation Segments in the U.S. Climate Change Industry ($mil): 2009-

2013........................................................................................................................ 11-5 Figure 1-25 Transportation Segments in the Global Climate Change Industry ($mil):

2009-2013 .............................................................................................................. 11-5 Figure 1-26 The U.S. Bioenergy Industry: 1990-2015e ................................................ 11-6 Figure 1-27 EV Supply Equipment Unit Sales by State, 2012-2020.......................... 11-16 Figure 1-28 U.S. Sales Numbers for Hybrid Vehicles, 2000-2013 ............................ 11-23 Figure 1-29 U.S. Hybrid Sales in 2012 by Car Maker/Brand..................................... 11-24 Figure 1-30 2008 U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Economic Sector (Tg CO2 Eq.)

.............................................................................................................................. 11-27 Figure 1-31 2008 U.S. Transportation-Related Greenhouse Gas Emissions (Tg CO2 Eq.)

.............................................................................................................................. 11-27 Figure 1-32 Transportation Segments in the Climate Change Industry .................... 11-28 Figure 1-33 U.S. Climate Change Transportation Business Segments: 2008-2009 .... 11-29 Figure 1-34 Comparison of Trends in Vehicle Miles of Travel and Gasoline Price: 1991-

2008...................................................................................................................... 11-30 Figure 1-35 How Americans Get To Work: Mode of Commuting, by Percentage... 11-31 Figure 1-36 U.S. Climate Change Transportation Business Segments: Revenues 2002-

2007...................................................................................................................... 11-33 Figure 1-37 U.S. Climate Change Transportation Business Segments: Revenues 2008-

2013...................................................................................................................... 11-34 Figure 1-38 U.S. Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions by End-Use Sector, 2003-

2008...................................................................................................................... 11-34 Figure 1-39 U.S. Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Transportation Sector Energy

Consumption, 2003-2008..................................................................................... 11-35 Figure 1-40 Biofuel as a % of Gasoline by Volume 2000-2010.................................. 11-36 Figure 1-41 Biofuel as a % of Gasoline by Volume 2000-2010.................................. 11-36 Figure 1-42 Biofuel as a % of Gasoline..................................................................... 11-38 Figure 1-43 Biofuels Data ($mil in annual U.S. sales) .............................................. 11-40 Figure 1-44 Alternative Fuel Vehicles Sales as a % of All Light Duty Vehicles........ 11-42 Figure 1-45 Alternative Fuel Vehicles Sales Units Compared to All Light Duty Vehicles

.............................................................................................................................. 11-42 Figure 1-46 US Hybrid Vehicle Sales in Units 2000-2009 ....................................... 11-44 Figure 1-47 NGV Global Vehicle Data ..................................................................... 11-46 Figure 1-48 U.S. Onroad Alternative Fuel Vehicles Made Available 2000-2008....... 11-48 Figure 1-49 U.S. Transit Buses by Fuel Type and Year.............................................. 11-48 Figure 1-50 June 2010 U.S. Hybrid Car Sales Numbers ............................................. 11-49 Figure 1-51 U.S. Hybrid Car Forecast ....................................................................... 11-50 Figure 1-52 Vehicle Miles of Travel (VMT) vs. Public Transit 1980 - 2008 ............. 11-52 Figure 1-53 Transportation Planning & Engineering: GHG Market Estimate to 2013.11-

54 Figure 1-54 Top U.S. Transportation Engineering Design Firms in 2008 .................. 11-57 Figure 1-55 Global Transportation Venture Capital Investment 2005-2010............. 11-63



Table of Contents

12. Carbon markets .................................................................................................. 12-4 12.1. 2013 Carbon Markets Overview.................................................................... 12-4

12.1.1. GHG Policy and Carbon markets in China.......................................... 12-17 12.1.2. Japan Pursues Domestic Emissions Trading and Bilateral Offsets ..... 12-23 12.1.3. Q&A: Ashley Lawson Discusses California-Quebec Carbon Market Linkage 12-26 12.1.4. As CDM Market Crashes, Players Innovate ........................................ 12-29 12.1.5. Drive for Carbon Efficiency Builds in Transition Economies............. 12-33 12.1.6. Q&A: Jelena Simjanovic Discusses Evolving ETS in South Korea.... 12-38 12.1.7. Q&A: Amaral and Lopez Discuss Brazil’s Emerging Carbon Markets .. 12-42 12.1.8. Q&A: Yvo de Boer Discusses the Future of Global Climate Policy... 12-44

12.2. 2009 Carbon Market Overview ................................................................... 12-46 12.2.1. Planet Aligns for the Dawn of the Climate Change Industry .............. 12-46 12.2.2. 2009 Carbon Markets in Brief ............................................................. 12-50 12.2.3. EU ETS Heading to Phase 3 ................................................................ 12-51 12.2.4. Carbon Market Explosion in 2007....................................................... 12-54 12.2.5. Historical Review of the EU ETS........................................................ 12-58 12.2.6. U.K. and Australian Schemes; Registries Emerge in U.S. .................. 12-59 12.2.7. CDM and JI Secondary Market ........................................................... 12-61 12.2.8. 2009 CDM Update: Stricter Approval Process Projects...................... 12-64

12.3. U.S. Climate Policy ..................................................................................... 12-65 12.3.1. RGGI.................................................................................................... 12-66

12.4. Voluntary Markets ....................................................................................... 12-67 12.4.1. 2013 Voluntary Update: Market Down, But Growth Drivers Evolving.. 12-70 12.4.2. 2009 Voluntary Update: Pre-Compliance Strategy ............................. 12-76

12.5. Understanding Carbon Markets: A Reader’s Guide .................................... 12-76 12.6. Carbon Market’s Cast of Characters............................................................ 12-77

12.6.1. Competition in Trading........................................................................ 12-78 12.6.2. 2009 Competitor Update: Survival of the Fittest................................. 12-80 12.6.3. Profile: EcoSecurities........................................................................... 12-80 12.6.4. Profile: CarbonZero ............................................................................. 12-81 12.6.5. Profile: Climate Trust .......................................................................... 12-83 12.6.6. Profile: ERA/EcoNeutral ..................................................................... 12-84 12.6.7. Profile: Co2balance.............................................................................. 12-86 12.6.8. Profile; CantorCO2e ............................................................................ 12-87 12.6.9. Feature: Emissions Verification........................................................... 12-90

12.7. Climate Change Consultants........................................................................ 12-94 12.7.1. Profile: SAIC ....................................................................................... 12-95 12.7.2. Profile: ICF International..................................................................... 12-97 12.7.3. Profile: ERM........................................................................................ 12-99 12.7.4. Profile: Stratus Consulting................................................................. 12-100 12.7.5. Profile: Eastern Research................................................................... 12-100

Carbon Markets


12.7.6. Profile: ENVIRON............................................................................. 12-102 12.7.7. Profile: Merrill Lynch ........................................................................ 12-102

12.8. Market Feature: Forestry Offsets............................................................... 12-104 12.8.1. Chile Explores Options for National ETS ......................................... 12-104 12.8.2. U.S. Forestry Offsets.......................................................................... 12-107

Table of Figures Figure 12-1 Global Carbon Market: Regulated vs. Voluntary .................................. 12-12 Figure 12-2 Global Carbon Market: USA vs. Non-USA........................................... 12-12 Figure 12-3 Global Carbon Price Averages ($/tonne CO2e)..................................... 12-13 Figure 12-4 Overview of Submitted Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions to UNFCCC...................................................................................................................... 12-14 Figure 12-5 Estimated Coverage of Implemented and Scheduled Emissions Trading Schemes ....................................................................................................................... 12-15 Figure 12-6 Carbon Pricing Mechanisms .................................................................. 12-17 Figure 12-7 Status of Local Pilot Projects in China .................................................. 12-23 Figure 12-8 Kazakhstan ETS..................................................................................... 12-35 Figure 12-9 Global CO2 Emissions in 2004 (metric tons of CO2) ........................... 12-46 Figure 12-10 Size of Global Climate Change Industry ............................................. 12-47 Figure 12-11 Total Greenhouse Gas Emissions By Region (% of total)................... 12-48 Figure 12-12 Total Greenhouse Gas Emissions By Region (Mt CO2e).................... 12-48 Figure 12-13 Global CO2 Emissions (% of total) ..................................................... 12-49 Figure 12-14 CCBJ Climate Change Industry Segmentation.................................... 12-49 Figure 12-15 Global Carbon Market ($mil)............................................................... 12-53 Figure 12-16 Global Carbon Market: Regulated vs. Voluntary ................................ 12-54 Figure 12-17 Transaction Volumes and Values, Global Carbon Market, 2007 and 2008...................................................................................................................................... 12-55 Figure 12-18 Transaction Volume by Project Type, OTC 2008 ............................... 12-56 Figure 12-19 Transaction Volume by Project Location, OTC 2008 ......................... 12-57 Figure 12-20 Compliance-Based Carbon Markets, Primary Buyers ......................... 12-57 Figure 12-21 Global Carbon Market, 2005-2006 ...................................................... 12-59 Figure 12-22 Primary CDM & JI Buyers .................................................................. 12-60 Figure 12-23 Location of CDM Projects in 2006 ...................................................... 12-61 Figure 12-24 CDM Projects, 2006 Market by Class.................................................. 12-61 Figure 12-25 Simplified Supply Chain of the Voluntary Carbon Markets................ 12-69 Figure 12-26 Location of Joint Implementation Projects 2003-2006........................ 12-79 Figure 12-27 Type of Joint Implementation Projects in 2003-2006.......................... 12-79 Figure 12-28 Representative of Projects Secured Through Cantor CO2e................. 12-90 Figure 12-29 CCX-Approved Offset Project Verifiers, Table I ................................ 12-92 Figure 12-30 CCX-Approved Offset Project Verifiers, Table II............................... 12-93 Figure 12-31 CCX-Approved Offset Project Verifiers, Table III.............................. 12-94 Figure 12-32 Carbon-Accounting Registries Serving the Voluntary Carbon Markets.. 12-108

Climate Change Adaptation Industry EBI Report 4800

© 2014 EBI Inc. All rights reserved. www.ebionline.org

Table of Contents

13. CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION.......................................................... 13-7 13.1. Defining the Climate Change Adaptation Industry ....................................... 13-7

13.1.1. Defining the Climate Change Adaptation Industry ............................... 13-7 13.1.2. Climate Change Adaptation Business Context ...................................... 13-8 13.1.3. Climate Change Adaptation Segments and Market Sizes.................... 13-10

13.2. Stage is Set for the Climate Change Adaptation Industry ........................... 13-17 13.2.1. 2013: Cost of Catastrophic Weather Events ........................................ 13-17 13.2.2. “Risky Business” Highlights Regional Impact of Climate Change..... 13-17 13.2.3. UNEP’s Emissions Gap Report ........................................................... 13-18 13.2.4. Year 2012............................................................................................. 13-19 13.2.5. Climate Change: Global Security Threat............................................. 13-21 13.2.6. Governments and Communities Prepare for Climate Change............. 13-25 13.2.7. Obama Executive Order 13653............................................................ 13-26 13.2.8. Private Sector Prepares for Climate Change........................................ 13-29 13.2.9. More Companies Institutionalize Climate Change Plans .................... 13-32 13.2.10. Investors Prepare for Climate Change ............................................. 13-34 13.2.11. Insurance Industry Backs Proactive Measures to Lessen Climate Risk 13-39 13.2.12. Opportunities in Climate Change Adaptation.................................. 13-41 13.2.13. Climate Adaptation Research Needs ............................................... 13-43

13.3. Trends in the Climate Change Adaptation Industry (2014)......................... 13-44 13.3.1. Climate Change Adaptation Business Gains Momentum.................... 13-44 13.3.2. Professional Service Firms Field Demand for Adaptation Planning ... 13-48 13.3.3. Adaptation & Climate Risk Services Reach $120-150 Million........... 13-49 13.3.4. Synergies Between Mitigation and Adaptation ................................... 13-52 13.3.5. First-Tier Clients: Government, Water and Power Utilities ................ 13-53 13.3.6. Oil & Gas Industry Considers Climate Change Adaptation ................ 13-56 13.3.7. Water Treatment & Re-use Business in the Oil Industry .................... 13-56 13.3.8. Consultants’ Perspective on Oil & Gas ............................................... 13-57 13.3.9. Electric Power Industry Focuses on Adaptation.................................. 13-63 13.3.10. Q&A: Marstel-Day .......................................................................... 13-68

13.4. Trends in the Climate Change Adaptation Industry (2012)......................... 13-71 13.4.1. Climate Change Adaptation Market Takes Shape in the United States... 13-71 13.4.2. Market is Small, But Extreme Weather Portends Long-Term Growth13-74 13.4.3. Adaptation, Disaster Preparedness and International Development.... 13-76 13.4.4. Heat & Water Expose Vulnerability of Conventional Power Generation13-77 13.4.5. Decentralized Water Treatment a Solution for New Property............. 13-77 13.4.6. Climate Fixing & Geo-Engineering..................................................... 13-78

13.5. Natural Capital and Ecosystem Services ..................................................... 13-79 13.5.1. Coastal Wetlands Restoration: Carbon Storage................................... 13-79



13.5.2. Ecosystem Services Gain Respect ....................................................... 13-83 13.5.3. URS Fields Growing Demand for Ecosystem Value Assessments ..... 13-84 13.5.4. ESA Evaluates Adaptive Mitigation Strategies ................................... 13-86 13.5.5. Natural Capital Project: Working With the Private Sector.................. 13-87 13.5.6. Industrial Economics Inc. – Q&A ....................................................... 13-88

13.6. Niche Market: Sea Level Rise ..................................................................... 13-91 13.6.1. Preparing Coastal Settlements for Sea Level Rise............................... 13-91 13.6.2. Changing Attitudes to Sea Level Rise ................................................. 13-95 13.6.3. Small Businesses Adapt to Rising Sea Level ...................................... 13-95 13.6.4. LIDAR Technology ............................................................................. 13-97 13.6.5. CH2M Hill, AECOM and Arcadis on Adaptation Contracts .............. 13-98 13.6.6. Profile: Stantec Canada...................................................................... 13-100 13.6.7. Profile: Dewberry............................................................................... 13-100 13.6.8. Legal Issues of Sea Level Rise .......................................................... 13-100 13.6.9. Adaptation Scenario: New York........................................................ 13-102 13.6.10. Army Corps Directives for Adaptation Planning........................... 13-103

13.7. Company and Practice Profiles.................................................................. 13-104 13.7.1. Specialist Consultants Lead the Way in Climate Risk Analysis........ 13-104 13.7.2. Q&A/Profile: Acclimatise ................................................................. 13-106 13.7.3. Profile: Atmospheric and Environmental Research........................... 13-111 13.7.4. Q&A: Atmospheric and Environmental Research............................. 13-112 13.7.5. Profile: Climate Risk (AdaptWater Software)................................... 13-113 13.7.6. Profile: Climate Service Center (Germany)....................................... 13-116 13.7.7. Profile: Climate Risk Analysis (Germany) ........................................ 13-117 13.7.8. Profile: Dewberry............................................................................... 13-118 13.7.9. Q&A: Envision - Rating System for Sustainable Infrastructure........ 13-120

13.8. Adaptation Practice Profiles ...................................................................... 13-124 13.8.1. Q&A: Irbaris ...................................................................................... 13-124 13.8.2. Q&A: AECOM .................................................................................. 13-127 13.8.3. Profile: GHD (Australia).................................................................... 13-131 13.8.4. Profile: Atkins N.A. ........................................................................... 13-134 13.8.5. Profile: Stratus Consulting................................................................. 13-135 13.8.6. Profile: MWH Global ........................................................................ 13-137 13.8.7. Q&A: WSP Group: Climate Risk Analysis and Adaptation in 2015 13-138 13.8.8. Q&A: WSP Group: Adaptation in the Supply Chain ........................ 13-142

13.9. Segment Report: Water Resource Management ........................................ 13-147 13.9.1. Water Strategy in the Western States................................................. 13-147 13.9.2. Profile: El Paso Water Utilities.......................................................... 13-152 13.9.3. Profile: Denver Water ........................................................................ 13-153 13.9.4. Profile: So Cal: West Basin Municipal Water District ...................... 13-154 13.9.5. Profile: American Water .................................................................... 13-155 13.9.6. Profile: Black & Veatch..................................................................... 13-158 13.9.7. Profile: Climate Risk (AdaptWater) .................................................. 13-162 13.9.8. Utility Profile: Metropolitan Water District ...................................... 13-165 13.9.9. Profile: CH2M Hill ............................................................................ 13-167



13.9.10. Profile: CH2M HILL (Halcrow Group)......................................... 13-169 13.9.11. Q&A: CH2M HILL on Climate Risk Worldwide ......................... 13-172 13.9.12. Profile: RAND ............................................................................... 13-177 13.9.13. Profile: HDR .................................................................................. 13-179 13.9.14. Profile: Stantec............................................................................... 13-181 13.9.15. Profile: Golder ............................................................................... 13-183 13.9.16. Profile: Malcolm Pirnie (Water Div. of ARCADIS) ..................... 13-185 13.9.17. Profile: Ryerson Master Associates ............................................... 13-187 13.9.18. Profile: Tetra Tech ......................................................................... 13-189 13.9.19. Profile: URS................................................................................... 13-191 13.9.20. Profile: WaterSmart Software........................................................ 13-193

13.10. Climate Change Adaptation Consulting Practices..................................... 13-195 13.10.1. Global Climate Change Adaptation Partnership............................ 13-195 13.10.2. ICF International............................................................................ 13-195 13.10.3. Acclimatise .................................................................................... 13-199 13.10.4. Cascadia Consulting Group (CA & WA) ...................................... 13-200 13.10.5. Dewberry (2014)............................................................................ 13-200 13.10.6. Stratus Consulting.......................................................................... 13-202 13.10.7. Internat Energy Solutions Canada ................................................. 13-202 13.10.8. URS Corp....................................................................................... 13-203 13.10.9. ARCADIS...................................................................................... 13-203 13.10.10. Mott MacDonald............................................................................ 13-204 13.10.11. PwC................................................................................................ 13-206 13.10.12. Halcrow Group Ltd - a CH2M HILL company ............................. 13-206 13.10.13. AECOM: Sample Projects ............................................................. 13-207

13.11. Appendix: CCA Resource Materials ......................................................... 13-210 13.11.1. Example of State and City Planning for Climate Change Adaptation.13-210 13.11.2. Issues for water resource managers ............................................... 13-211 13.11.3. U.S. Global Change Research Program Findings.......................... 13-212 13.11.4. Climate Risk and Adaptation Practices.......................................... 13-213



Table of Figures Figure 13-1 Climate Change Adaptation Industry Segments ...................................... 13-7 Figure 13-2 Forecast: The Global Climate Change Adaptation Industry 2004-2020.. 13-8 Figure 13-3 Climate Change Adaptation Industry Segments ...................................... 13-9 Figure 13-4 U.S. Climate Risk Assessment & Analysis: Project Revenue Estimates 2008...................................................................................................................................... 13-11 Figure 13-5 U.S. Climate Adaptation Planning: Project Revenue Estimates in 200813-11 Figure 13-6 U.S. Climate Risk Assessment & Analysis: Project Revenue Estimates in 2012.............................................................................................................................. 13-11 Figure 13-7 U.S. Climate Adaptation Planning: Project Revenue Estimates in 2012 13-12 Figure 13-8 USA Disaster Risk Reduction Project Model in 2011 ........................... 13-12 Figure 13-9 U.S. Disaster Preparedness and Response Planning: Project Revenue Estimates in 2011......................................................................................................... 13-12 Figure 13-10 Global Climate Change Adaptation Industry (Est. 2012 in $mil)........ 13-13 Figure 13-11 Projected Size of the U.S. Climate Change Adaptation Industry 2008-2020...................................................................................................................................... 13-13 Figure 13-12 Climate Change Adaptation:Client Prospects in 2012......................... 13-14 Figure 13-13 Climate Change Adaptation Services by Client: 2010-2016 ($mil) .... 13-14 Figure 13-14 Rating of Clients Areas by Demand for Climate Change Resilience & Adaptation Services in 2014-2016............................................................................... 13-15 Figure 13-15 Rating of USA Geographic Areas by Demand for Climate Change Risk Assessment & Adaptation Services ............................................................................. 13-16 Figure 13-16 Rating of Global Geographic Areas by Demand for Climate Change Risk Assessment & Adaptation Services ............................................................................. 13-16 Figure 13-17 Top 10 Warmest Years (1880-2013).................................................... 13-19 Figure 13-18 Billion-Dollar U.S. Weather Disasters, 2012........................................ 13-20 Figure 13-19 Top 10 Warmest Years Globally (1880-2012)...................................... 13-21 Figure 13-20 Top 10 Global Weather/Climate Events for 2012................................ 13-21 Figure 13-21 Global Losses and Insured losses from Natural Catastrophes ($bil) ... 13-23 Figure 13-22 Projected Effects of Climate Change – Pew Center on Global Climate Change ......................................................................................................................... 13-24 Figure 13-23 Climate Change Adaptation Funding and Technical Assistance from Federal Agencies.......................................................................................................... 13-26 Figure 13-24 Potential Effects of Climate Change on Selected Sectors...................... 13-36 Figure 13-25 Results from the Carbon Disclosure Project: Examples of Business Action to Address Physical Effects of Climate Change/Businesses That Have Actively Taken Steps to Adapt To Climate Change.............................................................................. 13-38 Figure 13-26 Results from the Carbon Disclosure Project: Examples of Business Action to Address Physical Effects of Climate Change/Differences in Approach to Physical Effects Within a Sector ................................................................................................ 13-39 Figure 13-27 Number of Natural Catastrophes Worldwide 1980-2011 .................... 13-41 Figure 13-28 Adaptation: A World of Emerging Opportunities................................ 13-42 Figure 13-29 Firms that have already generated growth/revenue from climate change opportunities ................................................................................................................ 13-42 Figure 13-30 Capitalizing on the New Adaptation Marketplace ................................ 13-43 Figure 13-31 Top 25 U.S. Climate Change Adaptation Services Firms.................... 13-49



Figure 13-32 Rating of Geographic Areas by Demand for Climate Risk Assessment & Adaptation Services ..................................................................................................... 13-50 Figure 13-33 Rating of Client Areas by Demand for Climate Change Resilience & Adaptation Services in 2014-2016............................................................................... 13-51 Figure 13-34 Typical Fee For Consulting Projects Focused on Climate Risk Assessment and Adaptation ............................................................................................................. 13-51 Figure 13-35 U.S. Climate Change Adaptation Industry 2008-2012 ($mil) ............. 13-54 Figure 13-36 U.S. Climate Change Adaptation Project Revenue Estimates in 2008 13-55 Figure 13-37 Top 20 Investor & State Owned Entities and Attributed CO2 and CH3 Emissions ..................................................................................................................... 13-63 Figure 13-38 Climate Change Adaptation: Client Prospect Ratings in 2012 ............ 13-73 Figure 13-39 The $520-million U.S. CCA & Disaster Services Market by Client in 2012...................................................................................................................................... 13-74 Figure 13-40 Climate Change Adaptation Services by Client (USA market in $mil)... 13-74 Figure 13-41 Corporate Applications of Ecosystem Services Approaches ............... 13-91 Figure 13-42 Ranking of the World's Cities Most Exposed To Coastal Flooding Today and in the Future by Population in the 2070s .............................................................. 13-93 Figure 13-43 Ranking of the World's Cities Most Exposed To Coastal Flooding Today andiIn the Future by Assets in the 2070s ..................................................................... 13-94 Figure 13-44 Existing Potable Reuse Systems ......................................................... 13-151 Figure 13-45 Impact of Sea Level Rise on Ocean and Coastal Resources.............. 13-162

EBI Report 4900


Table of Contents

14. Climate Change Consulting ............................................................................... 14-8

14.1. Climate Change Consulting ....................................................................... 14-8 14.1.1. Climate Change Consulting Overview 2015 ......................................... 14-8 14.1.2. Climate Change Consulting Overview 2013 ....................................... 14-12 14.1.3. Market Feature: Scope 3 Emissions Accounting ................................. 14-18 14.1.4. Climate Change Consulting Overview from 2009............................... 14-22 14.1.5. Strategy for Consultants....................................................................... 14-39 14.1.6. C&E Firms in Leading Role in Climate Change ................................. 14-40 14.1.7. Top Competitors in the C&E Field...................................................... 14-42 14.1.8. TRC and ENVIRON Label Top Client Areas ..................................... 14-44 14.1.9. Market Feature: Climate Change and Sustainability ........................... 14-45 14.1.10. Market Feature: Sustainability & GHG and Scope 3 Reporting...... 14-47 14.1.11. Market Feature: Ecosystem Services & Natural Capital ................. 14-51 14.1.12. Market Feature: Targeting the Top Industries ................................. 14-57 14.1.13. GHG Consulting for the Oil & Gas Industry ................................... 14-58 14.1.14. GHG Consulting for the Mining Industry........................................ 14-66 14.1.15. Market Feature: Carbon Footprints.................................................. 14-71 14.1.16. Market Feature: Supply Chain Analysis .......................................... 14-75 14.1.17. Renewable Energy Consulting & Engineering: Solar Engineering.14-76 14.1.18. Climate Change Consultants Services Review................................ 14-88

14.2. C&E Profiles............................................................................................ 14-90 14.2.1. Haley & Aldrich................................................................................... 14-90 14.2.2. Great Ecology ...................................................................................... 14-91 14.2.3. Stantec.................................................................................................. 14-94 14.2.4. Four Twenty Seven .............................................................................. 14-96 14.2.5. E2 ManageTech ................................................................................... 14-98 14.2.6. ARCADIS.......................................................................................... 14-100 14.2.7. Antea Group....................................................................................... 14-103 14.2.8. Anthesis Group .................................................................................. 14-107 14.2.9. Measurabl........................................................................................... 14-109 14.2.10. Trinity Consultants......................................................................... 14-111 14.2.11. Environmental Resources Management ........................................ 14-112 14.2.12. Siemens: Building Performance and Sustainability....................... 14-114 14.2.13. Schneider Electric .......................................................................... 14-116 14.2.14. Black & Veatch.............................................................................. 14-120 Mining................................................................................................................ 14-120 Oil & Gas ........................................................................................................... 14-122 14.2.15. Golder Associates: Mining Industry .............................................. 14-123 14.2.16. KEMA............................................................................................ 14-125 14.2.17. Synapse Energy Economics........................................................... 14-128 14.2.18. Cambridge Systematics.................................................................. 14-129 14.2.19. SAIC .............................................................................................. 14-131 14.2.20. ICF International............................................................................ 14-135

Climate Change Consulting


14.2.21. ERM............................................................................................... 14-136 14.2.22. Stratus Consulting.......................................................................... 14-144 14.2.23. Eastern Research............................................................................ 14-144 14.2.24. ENVIRON’s Carbon Management Practice .................................. 14-145 14.2.25. Jacques Whitford (Stantec) ............................................................ 14-146 14.2.26. EORM............................................................................................ 14-148 14.2.27. Q&A With ICF .............................................................................. 14-150 14.2.28. Golder Associates .......................................................................... 14-153 14.2.29. Fluor Corp...................................................................................... 14-155 14.2.30. WorleyParsons ............................................................................... 14-158 14.2.31. ENVIRON’s GHG Focus .............................................................. 14-160 14.2.32. CDM .............................................................................................. 14-163 14.2.33. AECOM Technology Corp ............................................................ 14-165 14.2.34. Burns & McDonnell....................................................................... 14-168 14.2.35. O’ Brien & Gere............................................................................. 14-170 14.2.36. Ecology & Environment Inc. ......................................................... 14-171 14.2.37. MWH Global ................................................................................. 14-173 14.2.38. Q&A with Wright-Pierce............................................................... 14-174 14.2.39. Q&A with CH2M Hill ................................................................... 14-178 14.2.40. Q&A with Chambers Group .......................................................... 14-182 14.2.41. Q&A with Cameron-Cole .............................................................. 14-186 14.2.42. Q&A with Black & Veatch............................................................ 14-187

14.3. Professional Services Firms In Climate Change Consulting ................. 14-192 14.3.1. Big Four Accounting Firms Take Leadership Role With the Largest Corporations....................................................................................................... 14-192 14.3.2. Accounting Firm: PricewaterhouseCoopers ...................................... 14-194 14.3.3. Accounting Firm: Deloitte 2012 ........................................................ 14-195 14.3.4. Accounting Firm: Deloitte 2010 ........................................................ 14-198 14.3.5. Accounting Firm: Ernst & Young...................................................... 14-199 14.3.6. Ernst & Young: Sustainability Practice ............................................. 14-200 14.3.7. Accounting Firm: KPMG .................................................................. 14-202 14.3.8. Insurance Providers: Lloyd’s and SwissRE....................................... 14-204 14.3.9. Management Consultant: Oliver Wyman .......................................... 14-205 14.3.10. Management Consultant: McKinsey.............................................. 14-206 14.3.11. Management Consultant: Booz & Company ................................. 14-207 14.3.12. Management Consulting: Brattle Group........................................ 14-208 14.3.13. Info-based Management Consulting: IHS ..................................... 14-211 14.3.14. Management Consulting: Navigant Consulting............................. 14-213 14.3.15. Management Consulting: PA Consulting ...................................... 14-216 14.3.16. Management Consulting: AEA Group........................................... 14-218 14.3.17. Specialist Consulting: First Carbon Solutions ............................... 14-220 14.3.18. Financial Consulting Firm: CP Energy.......................................... 14-222 14.3.19. Specialty Firm: Enterprise Carbon Accounting............................. 14-224 14.3.20. Utility Consulting: Huron Consulting Group ................................ 14-225 14.3.21. Specialist Consultant: Irbaris ......................................................... 14-227

14.4. Law Firms and Climate Change Practices ............................................. 14-229

EBI Report 4900


14.4.1. Law Firm: Mintz Levin...................................................................... 14-233 14.4.2. Law Firm: Hogan Lovells.................................................................. 14-236 14.4.3. Law Firm: Van Ness Feldman ........................................................... 14-240 14.4.4. Law Firm: Holland & Knight ............................................................ 14-241 14.4.5. Law Firm: Hogan & Hartson ............................................................. 14-242 14.4.6. Law Firm: Stoel Rives ....................................................................... 14-243 14.4.7. Law Firm: Balch & Bingham ............................................................ 14-244 14.4.8. Law Firm: Baker & McKenzie .......................................................... 14-245 14.4.9. Law Firm Q&A: Bryan Cave............................................................. 14-247 14.4.10. Law Firm: B&D Consulting, a division of Baker & Daniels ........ 14-249 14.4.11. Financial Profile: Merrill Lynch .................................................... 14-251

14.5. Competitive Review from Verdantix..................................................... 14-252

14.6. CCBJ’s Climate Change Consulting Survey 2008 & 2010 ................... 14-256



Table of Figures Figure 14-24 USA Climate Change Consulting Market ($Mil) ................................ 14-13 Figure 14-25 U.S. Core Climate Change Consulting Market (by Competitor Categories)

.............................................................................................................................. 14-14 Figure 14-26 U.S. Core Climate Change Consulting Market (by Service) ............... 14-18 Figure 14-27 U.S. Climate Change Industry Consulting & Engineering Market ($Mil)

2008-2012 ............................................................................................................ 14-21 Figure 14-28 U.S. Core Climate Change Consulting Market ($Mil) by Service 2008-

2012...................................................................................................................... 14-22 Figure 14-29 Climate Change Consulting Market ($Mil) ......................................... 14-23 Figure 14-30 Global Climate Change Consulting Market: Worldwide Number of Firms

in 2007 ................................................................................................................. 14-23 Figure 14-31 Core U.S. Climate Change Consulting Market ($mil): 2008............... 14-24 Figure 14-32 U.S. Climate Change Industry Consulting & Engineering Market ($Mil)

.............................................................................................................................. 14-25 Figure 14-33 Climate Change Consulting Global Market Estimates from 2009: Revs

$mil ...................................................................................................................... 14-26 Figure 14-34 Climate Change Consulting Global Market Estimates 2014: Revs $mil . 14-

27 Figure 14-35 Climate Change Consulting Services Offered by Vendors: 2008........ 14-28 Figure 14-36 Ranking of client types for climate change consulting services in 2008 .14-

29 Figure 14-37 Ranking of client types for climate change consulting services in 2009-

2010...................................................................................................................... 14-30 Figure 14-38 U.S. Climate Change Industry Consulting & Engineering Market ($Mil)

2008-2012 ............................................................................................................ 14-30 Figure 14-39 U.S. Core Climate Change Consulting Market ($Mil) by Service 2008-

2012...................................................................................................................... 14-31 Figure 14-40 Ranking of geographic regions in demand for CCC services in 2009-2010

.............................................................................................................................. 14-32 Figure 14-41 Climate Change Consulting Projects Tend to be Small ....................... 14-33 Figure 14-42 Market shares in climate change consulting services .......................... 14-33 Figure 14-43 Rating of market drivers for climate change consulting ...................... 14-38 Figure 14-44 Climate Change Consulting Competitor Types and Examples............ 14-39 Figure 1445 Other Climate Change Consulting Sector Competitors......................... 14-39 Figure 14-46 U.S. Solar Energy Consulting & Engineering and Construction ($mil) .. 14-

77 Figure 14-47 Concentrating Solar Power Projects In Development in the United States

.............................................................................................................................. 14-78 Figure 14-48 Solar Projects: Operational and Under Development in the USA in 2009

.............................................................................................................................. 14-79 Figure 14-49 Projects Under Development: Photovoltaics (excluding Concentrating PV)

.............................................................................................................................. 14-81 Figure 14-50 CSP Projects in Operation.................................................................... 14-84

EBI Report 4900


Figure 14-51 Top U.S. Renewable Energy Consulting & Engineering Companies in 2008...................................................................................................................... 14-86

Figure 14-52 Top 20 Environmental Consulting & Engineering firms, 2008........... 14-89 Figure 14-53 Climate Change Practice Areas in Law Firms ................................... 14-230 Figure14-54 Other Services in Climate Change Law Practices............................... 14-231 Figure 14-55 Climate Change Client Types for Law Firms .................................... 14-232 Figure 14-56 Spread of Climate Change Law Practices.......................................... 14-233 Figure 14-57 Important Factors When Selecting a Sustainability Consultant......... 14-255 Figure 14-58 Key Issues for the Climate Change Industry...................................... 14-256 Figure 14-59 Survey Respondent............................................................................. 14-257 Figure 14-60 Respondent Pool by Type .................................................................. 14-258 Figure 14-61 Respondent Pool by Type .................................................................. 14-259 Figure 14-62 Respondent by Pool Size.................................................................... 14-260 Figure 14-63 Respondent Pool by size .................................................................... 14-261 Figure 14-64 Other CCC Survey Questions 2010 ................................................... 14-261 Figure 14-65 Other CCC Survey Questions: ........................................................... 14-262 Figure 14-66 Climate Change Practice Leader 2010............................................... 14-262 Figure 14-67 Climate Change practice leader 2010 ................................................ 14-262 Figure 14-68 Climate change practice leader .......................................................... 14-262 Figure 14-69 Business development........................................................................ 14-263 Figure 14-70 Training or mentorship program ........................................................ 14-263 Figure 14-71 Training or mentorship program ........................................................ 14-263 Figure 14-72 Areas for Recruitment 2010............................................................... 14-264 Figure 14-73 Areas for Recruitment ........................................................................ 14-264 Figure 14-74 Management level in client companies 2010..................................... 14-265 Figure 14-75 Management level in client companies .............................................. 14-265 Figure 14-76 Impact of market drivers .................................................................... 14-266 Figure 14-77 Ranking Client Types 2010................................................................ 14-267 Figure 14-78 Ranking of Client Types .................................................................... 14-268 Figure 14-79 Ranking in Geographic Regions 2010 ............................................... 14-269 Figure 14-80 Ranking of Geographic Regions ........................................................ 14-269 Figure 14-81 Climate change project cost range ..................................................... 14-270 Figure 14-82 Customer areas with the most potential ............................................. 14-271 Figure 14-83 Regions of the most promise.............................................................. 14-272 Figure 14-84 Perception of large management consulting firms (Table I).............. 14-273 Figure 14-85 Perception of large management consulting firms (Table II) ............ 14-274 Figure 14-86 Best suited for climate change consulting (Table I)........................... 14-274 Figure 14-87 Best suited for climate change consulting (Table II) ......................... 14-275 Figure 14-88 Best suited for climate change consulting (Table III)........................ 14-276 Figure 14-89 Leaders in climate change consulting ................................................ 14-276 Figure 14-90 Leaders in climate change consulting (Table II)................................ 14-277 Figure 14-91 Critical internal management issues (Table I) ................................... 14-277 Figure 14-92 Critical internal management issues (Table II) .................................. 14-278 Figure 14-93 Service Categories Offered ................................................................ 14-279 Figure 14-94 Prospects for sales growth.................................................................. 14-280 Figure 14-95 Client funded projects 2010 ............................................................... 14-280



Figure 14-96 Estimated Climate Change Project Costs........................................... 14-280 Figure 14-97 Estimated Renewable Energy or Engineering Project ....................... 14-281 Figure 14-98 Imapact of market drivers on revenues from climate change ............ 14-281

Documents

EBI Report 4000 The Climate Change Industry · EBI Report 4000 The Climate Change Industry April 2015 A publication of Environmental Business International, Inc. 4452 Park Blvd. #306