Early Warning and Response Analysis November, 2014...30 November 2014 Normally during the month of November, very slight rain shower is expected over western, southwestern, southern

Released on November, 2014

Early Warning and Response Directorate DRMFSS, MoA

This bulletin is prepared by the Early Warning and Response Directorate to coordinate and disseminate early warning and food security information. For any comments, questions or suggestions and/or to receive the bulletin on your email please write to [email protected] If you are planning to contribute to the response effort, please inform DRMFSS by writing to [email protected]

Early Warning and Response Analysis November, 2014

mailto:[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

Early Warning and Response Directorate, MoA

2 Early Warning and Response Analysis November, 2014

Contents

Acronyms .......................................................................................................................................................... 3

Early Warning and ResponseSummary………..………………………………………………………………4

Weather Conditions ........................................................................................................................................... 5

Nutrition ............................................................................................................................................................ 6

Appendix ......................................................................................................................................................... 11



ACRONYMS:

CHD: Child Health Day

CPI: Consumer Price Index

CSA: Central Statistical Agency

DRMFSS: Disaster Risk Management and Food Security Sector:

EGTE: Ethiopian Grain Trade Enterprise

EHNRI: Ethiopian Health and Nutrition Research Institute

ENCU: Emergency Nutrition Coordination Unit

FAO: Food and Agriculture Organization

FMOH: Federal Ministry of Health

GAM: Global Acute Malnutrition

HRD: Humanitarian Response

HRF: Humanitarian Response Fund

IMC: International Medical Corps

ITCZ: Inter Tropical Convergent Zone

MAM: Moderate Acute Malnutrition

NMA: National Meteorological Agency

OTP: Outpatient Therapeutic Program

PLW: Pregnant and Lactating Women

SAM: Severe Acute Malnutrition

TFU: Therapeutic Feeding Unit

TSF: Targeted Supplementary Food

TSFP: Targeted Supplementary Feeding Program

WFP: World Food Programme



EARLY WARNING AND RESPONSE SUMMARY

During the upcoming November 2014, near normal rainfall is expected over most parts of

Oromiya, southern half of SNNPR, Gambela, Benishangul Gumuz and southern parts of

Somali.

The expected adverse weather situation over isolated areas of central Ethiopia, eastern and

northeastern parts of the country would have negative impact on harvest and post harvest

activities. Thus, the concerned personnel should respond appropriately in areas where crops

are ready for harvest in order to avoid crop yield losses due to unnecessary moisture.

The anticipated continuation of seasonal rainfall over south and southeastern parts of the

country would have a positive impact on the availability of pasture and drinking water over

pastoral areas.

TFP admissions at national level stabilized at August levels with slight decrease of two percent

in September.

SAM caseload increased in SNNPR by 22 percent in September compared to August, however,

it was still below those reported in same month in 2013.

Slight decrease in TFP admissions were reported in Oromiya in September except in three

among the most concerning zones of East Hararghe, West Arsi and Bale zones.

Ad hoc survey results in Desenach woredas in SNNPR indicated a critical nutrition situation in

September and emergency responses were immediately approved by the DRMFSS and

implemented by the region.

Low reporting rate was still a challenge in Somali and Afar regions to describe admission trends

at regional level.

More MAM beneficiaries enrolled in TSFP in hotspot and pilot woredas by WFP and NGOs in

September compared to August.

TFP admission projected to continue with decreasing trend during the October to December

period



WEATHER CONDITIONS

October 2014 weather conditions

Map 1: Rainfall distribution in mm for the month of

October 2014

Source: NMA

During the month of October 2014, central and

most parts of western half of SNNPR, a few

areas of western Amhara, parts of western,

eastern and parts of southern Oromiya, eastern

and southeastern Benishangul Gumuz received

fall greater than 200mm. Central and parts of

western Benishangul Gumuz, parts of western,

and eastern including most parts of southern

Oromiya, western half of southern Somali, a

few areas of central SNNPR, southeastern parts

of Gambela and a few areas of western Amhara

experienced falls ranging from 150 – 200 mm.

Southern parts of SNNPR, northern and parts of

eastern Gambella, western tip, southern margin

and northern parts of eastern Oromiya including

a few areas of central Oromiya, northwestern

Benishangul Gumuz, parts of central and

northwestern Amhara and most parts of Somali

exhibited falls ranging from 100 – 150 mm.

Parts of northwestern, southern , a few areas of

eastern and central Amhara, northern parts of

Somali and parts of southern Afar experienced

falls ranging from 50 – 100 mm. Most parts of

central and eastern Tigray, parts of northern and

some parts of central Amhara, central Afar and

northern Tip of Somali exhibited 25 - 50 mm of

rainfall. Most parts of Afar, parts of eastern and

southern Tigray and northeastern Amhara

received falls ranging from 5 -25 mm.

Map 2: Percent of normal rainfall distribution for

October 2014

Source: NMA

As can be seen from map 2, with the exception of

parts of northern and parts of southern Amhara the

rest of the country received normal to above

normal rainfall during the month under review.

Map 3: Number of Rainy day days for the month

October 2014



Source: NMA

Northwester tip and a few areas of SNNPR,

eastern margin of Benishangul Gumuz including

a few areas of southern and northwestern Oromiya

received falls in greater than 20 rainy days.

Southeastern Gambela, parts of western and most

parts of southern Oromiya, eastern parts of

Benishangul Gumuz, a few areas of western

Amhara, most parts of western Oromiya, western

and central SNNPR and southwestern margin of

Oromiya received falls in 15 - 20 rainy days.

Parts of northern and eastern Gambela, most parts

of western Amhara, central and parts of eastern

Oromiya and southwestern Somali received falls

in 10 -15 rainy days. Eastern half of Tigray, Parts

of central and eastern Amhara, most parts of

eastern and central Oromiya, southern and parts of

western Afar and most parts of Somali received

falls in 5 - 10 rainy days. Therefore, the observed

rainfall distribution could have positive impact on

crops which are at different phonological stages at

this time of the year while it could have negative

impact in areas where harvest and post harvest

activities are under question. On the other hand,

the rest parts of the country received falls in 0 – 5

rainy days during the month of October.

Weather outlook and its possible impact for 1-

30 November 2014

Normally during the month of November,

very slight rain shower is expected over

western, southwestern, southern and some

areas of central and eastern parts of the

country. However, dry and windy condition

during the daytime while cool weather

condition during the night and early in the

morning prevailing over northern,

northeastern, central and eastern highlands of

the country.

Pursuant to the National Meteorological Agency

weather/climate outlook, during the upcoming

November 2014, near normal rainfall is expected

over most parts of Oromiya, southern half of

SNNPR, Gambela, Benishangul Gumuz and

southern parts of Somali. In relation to the

occurrence of weather systems, which are

different from the normal phenomenon, an

increase in cloud cover and occasional rainfall is

anticipated over isolated areas of central Ethiopia,

eastern and northeastern parts of the country. This

expected adverse weather situation would have

negative impact on harvest and post harvest

activities. Thus, the concerned personnel should

respond appropriately in areas where crops are

ready for harvest in order to avoid crop yield

losses due to unnecessary moisture. On the other

hand seasonal rainfall will continue over south

and southeastern parts of the country.

Accordingly, this situation would have a positive

impact on the availability of pasture and drinking

water over the above mentioned pastoral areas.

NUTRITION

1: Nutrition situation: The emergency nutrition

situation is routinely monitored at regional and

national levels by the ENCU of the DRMFSS by

collecting and analyzing different sources of

nutrition information such as TFP admissions, ad

hoc or bi-annual surveys and revision of

woredas’s hotspot status. The nutrition situation at

national level for August and September based on

the above sources with exception of revision of

hotspot (already reported in September) is briefly

described below.

1.1 TFP Admissions Trends:

Based on monthly TFP reports mostly from the

six major regions (SNNPR, Oromiya, Amhara,

Tigray, Afar and Somali), SAM admissions in

September remained relatively stable with two

percent decrease from August levels, with over 86

percent reporting rates in both months. It is also

important to note that the actual caseload in

August of 23,139 and September 22, 659 are 98.4

and 96.3 percent respectively, of the respective

month’s revised projected SAM caseload in the

July to December 2014 HRD

Between Januarys and September 2014, a total of

194,697 SAM cases with 87.6 percent (97.3 % of



the revised projection during that period) were

treated for severe acute malnutrition in TFP sites

most of them from six major regions. Overall,

TFP admissions at national level fluctuated

between July and September and remained stable

at elevated levels since March to September with

slight decrease or increase of between below 9

percent. While the 2014 caseload are generally

lower by 5.2 percent than those reported in 2013

especially during the January to July period; the

SAM caseloads were higher in May, August and

September 2014 by 2. 9, 16.4 and 3.9 percent

respectively, compared to the same period in

2013. Expansion of TFP programme could partly

explain the observed increase in TFP admissions

in August and September, since, when TFP

reporting sites are controlled for, the SAM

caseload in September becomes lower that those

reported in 2013. TFP admission trend at national

level from 2010 to 2014 is shown in Figure 1

below.

Regionally, TFP admission in SNNPR increased

gradually (see figure below) from January to June

that was consistent with the expected levels

during the first half of 2014. However, in July and

August, SAM admissions decreased by about 20

and 23 percent respectively and then increased

considerably in September by 22.3 percent from

4050 with 90 reporting rate in August to 4955 in

September with 97 percent reporting rate.

Increase in TFP admissions in September is

common in the last three years, though the

increase in 2014 is considerably higher (13 %

after controlling for number of reporting sites)

than those reported in 2012, 2013 by 1.5 and 7.9

percent respectively. Despite the increase, the

September 2014 SAM caseload are still lower by

4.6 percent than those enrolled in TFP sites in the

region in 2013. Note also that TFP admissions in

the region have been consistently lower than those

reported in previous years (2011-2013) since

January to September. Few unexpected woredas

that reported unusual increase in TFP admissions

in September in SNNPR are being followed up by

the RENCU for verification.

In Amhara, TFP admissions in the region have

been decreasing since June 2014. Although it

increased by 6.4 percent in September (3,006)

compared to August (2,826) with over 91 percent

reporting rates in both months, the overall TFP

admission is described as stable for the July to

September period. Compared to 2013, SAM cases

admitted in 2014 between May and September are

consistently lower than those reported in 2013

during the same period.

In Oromiya, the July to September TFP

admissions fluctuated with a slight decrease in

September by 4.7 percent from 12,080 (86% RR)

in August to 11,517 in September with over 90

percent reporting rate.

Despite the overall decrease, the regional

accounted for about 51 percent of the total SAM

case load reported in September. In additional,

while decrease was reported in most of the zones,

three zones, East Hararghe, West Arsi and Bale

zones reported increase in TFP admissions with

6.6, 5.6 and 28 percent respectively. The unusual

increase in Bale was associated with CHD

screening that was done in September. The

increase also reflects the food security stress that

the zone has been going through in the last four

months (June to September following the 2014

Belg Failure in the zone. Figure 3, shows TFP

admissions trend from 2011 to 2014. A number of

woredas also reported consecutive increase in TFP

admissions in Borena zones for three months (July

to September) despite having an overall decrease

at zonal level.

Compared to same period in 2013 at face value,

the 2014 July, August and September SAM

admissions are lower in July, but are higher in

August and September by 43 and 23.4 percent

respectively. However, when the number of

reporting sites is controlled for, the increase in

August and September1 decreases to 23.8 and 1

percent respectively. Meaningful comparison

with previous years is sometimes significantly

confounded with the timing of CHD screening.

This is likely to be case in May and August in

1 There were 873 additional new TFP sites in September 2014 (4,820) that reported compared to 3,947 that reported in

September 2013.



2014 where CHD screening was done a month

later compared to April and July in 2013.

In Somali and Afar regions, TFP admissions for

August and September are still below 80 reporting

rate thresholds and therefore posing difficulties in

describing TFP admissions trends. However, 13

out of the 21 woredas supported by partners in

Somali region reported increase in TFP

admissions at varying levels between August and

September while the remaining 8 reported

decreasing trend. Similarly in Afar, partners (SCI

and APDA and GOAL) strengthening emergency

nutrition responses reported decrease in 5 out of

the 9 woredas supported by partners including

Afdera that reported significant increase in

August. TFP admission increased in the

remaining four woredas associated with post CHD

screening and returning of previously

displaced/migrated pastoralists’.

In Tigray, TFP admissions trend from February to

September can be described as stable fluctuating

between 705 and 852 in August and April

respectively with over 80 percent reporting rates.

The September TFP admissions are also lower

than those reported in 2013 by 12.5 percent with

over 80 percent reporting rates in both months.

1.2 TSF admissions among under-five children

and PLWs

The number of under-five, Pregnant and Lactating

Women (PLW) MAM cases enrolled in TSF

programme increased by 65.8 percent from

114,117 end of August to 189,187 by end of

September. About 50 percent of the beneficiaries

were children below the age of five years and the

remainder was PLWs.

Overall, a total of 541,967 MAM cases, 50.1

percent of them being under-five children and

49.9 PLWs in 1172 woredas (44 of them piloted

TSF) were enrolled in TSF programme from

January to September. WFP in collaboration with

Regional Early Warning and Health Bureaus

accounted for 84.2 percent of the total MAM

caseload enrolled in the TSF programme during

the July to September period in 813 woredas and

the rest was reached by NGOs in 12 woredas.

Moreover, a total of 14,808 SAM cases

discharged from TFP were enrolled in TSFP in the

44 WFP piloted woredas during the reporting

period.

The January to September caseload increased by

10 percentage points from 34.3 in August to 45.3

in September of the revised projected MAM cases

load in the January to December 2014 HRD. As it

was explained in the October bulletin, the low

coverage of estimated MAM beneficiaries partly

is explained by the lack of resources that

hampered implementation of TSF in hotspot

priority one woredas during the first half of 2014.

The number of MAM cases enrolled in TSFP is

expected to increase significantly between

October and December as most of hotspot priority

one woredas in Oromiya, Somali and Afar regions

will have implemented TSFP.

1.3 Nutrition situation based on ad hoc surveys

In order to have better understanding of the

impact of poor performance of 2014 Belg rains on

nutritional status of vulnerable groups in parts of

Oromiya, Somali and South Omo in SNNPR, the

DRMFSS approved five additional surveys be

conducted to complement monthly TFP

admissions and other related nutrition information

in those regions. The survey results in Desenach

woreda in South Omo in SNNPR, completed in

September and released by ENCU mid-October,

revealed a critical nutrition situation in the woreda

with GAM and SAM of 33.8 and 4.3 percent

respectively, in the presence of a number of

aggravating factors such as food insecurity, poor

animal and pasture conditions, very low measles

coverage and low coverage of TFP services.

Crude and under-five children were surprisingly

normal compared to the national and Sphere

standards emergency thresholds

The Oromiya surveys results in Borena and Arsi

zones were reported in the October bulletin while

3 81 woredas (44 TSF pilot woredas by WFP in four regions

(SNNPR,Oromiya, Tigray and Amhara and 37 hotspot woredas



the Somali survey (Dolo Ado woreda) has been

completed and report writing is still underway

expected to be released before the end of

November.

Meanwhile, two end-line surveys to guide

decisions on emergency on going emergency

nutrition responses implemented by partners

conducted in Kebridah and Gode woredas in

Somali region were completed and submitted to

the ENCU for quality assurance. The Survey

results in Kebridahr indicated a serious nutrition

situation with GAM and SAM of 17.0 and 1.3

percent respectively, in the absence of aggravating

factors. Crude and under-five mortality rates were

normal and were very low. The Gode results were

still under- review at the ENCU and was expected

to be released 2nd

week of November

2. Response coverage based on August

hotspot and partners commitments:

Coverage of emergency nutrition responses is

monitored on monthly basis by the ENCU of the

DRMFSS. Based on the October update from the

six regions, there was no change in coverage of

OTP and TFU services in 1214 priority one and

1535 priority two woredas between September and

October period. TSF coverage in priority one

woredas increased slightly from 60 in September

to 64 in October. TSF coverage in priority one

woredas was expected to increase dramatically to

80 % and above by end of October ( to be updated

in December) following a request TSF supplies

for 32 and 4 priority one woredas in Oromiya and

Afar regions respectively. Screening for TSF

responses commenced in Somali during the first

week of November that would increase the TSF

coverage to in priority one to over 90 percent.

TSF responses were also implemented in four6

woredas affected by flood in Somali region using

OCHA-HRF centrally procured TSF resources in

October.

Meanwhile, blanket SFP was implemented in

Desenech woreda in South Omo in SNNPR with

4 90.1% had OTP and 79.3% had TFU/SC services 5 89.5% had OTP and 73.2% had TFU/SC services 6 Kalafo, Mustahili, Gode and Ferfer

resources from the DRMFSS following a critical

nutrition situation in the woreda. PSNP and Risk

financing Mechanisms were also triggered by the

SNPPR Regional Early warning and response

Core Work Process bureau to woreda in response

to the situation between August and September

period.

No significant changes of woreda7 supported

by partners by end of October compared to

those reported in October bulletin. However,

priority one supported by partners were

expected to increase considerably in

November following HRF approval of the

AMREF proposal for three woredas in Afar

and ZOA proposal for Akobo woreda in

Gambela that was expected to be reviewed

second week of November. In Additional,

ACF secured Emergency Response

Mechanism (ERM) funds from ECHO

managed by IRC/GOAL for strengthening

emergency nutrition responses in three

priority one woredaa in Gambela. Update

from partners indicated that there was no

major shortage of TFP supplies except for F-

75 and F-100 in few localized incidences

that were addressed by respective partners by

liaising and communicating with Regional

Health Bureaus and UNICEF sub offices in

the respective regions.

Some of the challenges that partners were

facing in September (published in the

October) continued in October: These

included limited logistic support for regular

monitoring of emergency response in some

of the regions, inaccessibility of the some of

the kebeles in some of partners’ operational

woredas and limited community

mobilization for the uptake of the emergency

nutrition responses in some of the woredas

and low coverage of TFP services in some of

woredas.

7 60 priority one in September and 61 in October while it remained 39 for priority two in both months



3. Nutrition situation outlook for October to

December 2014

Given that Meher harvests is expected beginning

of October to December period; and given that

projected increased in TSF coverage in priority

one woredas in the coming months, ENCU

projects that TFP admissions will continue

indicating a decreasing trend during the October

to December period as it has been observed in

previous years. However, pocket hotspot woredas

in Oromiya, SNNPR, and Somali and Afar

regions particularly those affected by flood are

likely to experience increased TFP and MAM

admissions. Initiation of emergency nutrition

responses by partners accompanied with increased

community mobilization and active case finding is

also likely to contribute to increased SAM and

MAM caseloads in supported woredas.

The planned Meher needs assessments to be

conducted in December, will provide better

understanding of the food security situation in

Meher dependent areas and therefore better

projection of the fourth quarter TFP admissions

trends at regional and national levels. Continued

and timely combination of responses (relief

responses in all eligible hotspot woredas one

including those affected by flood, TSF and TFP)

could significantly contribute to projected

decrease in SAM and MAM cases.



I RAINFALL ANALYSIS

OPTION 1: DAKADAL RAINFALL ESTIMATE (mm)

OCTOBER 1-10 OCTOBER 11-20 OCTOBER 21-30

Act

ual

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No

rmal

Co

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to N

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Cummlative Rainfal October 1-30,2014 Cummlative Normal Rainfal October 1-30,2014

Deviation from Cummlative Normal Rainfal October 1-30,2014



II. Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) October 2014

OCTOBER 1-10 OCTOBER 10-20 OCTOBER 20-30

Act

ual

Fra

ctio

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Ve

geta

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nn

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(ND

VI)

in f

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Figure 1: TFP admissions trend at national level from 2010 to 2014

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Figure 2: New TFP admissions trend in SNNPR from 2011 to 2014



Figure 3: New TFP admissions trend in Oromiya region, 2011-2014

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Figure 1: Distributionof hotspot priority status, 2014

Documents

Early Warning and Response Analysis November, 2014...30 November 2014 Normally during the month of November, very slight rain shower is expected over western, southwestern, southern