Ea Energianalyse Berlin - 18 May 2009 Anders Kofoed-Wiuff, Ea Energy Analyses Berlin - 18 May 2009 Anders Kofoed-Wiuff, Ea Energy Analyses

Ea Energianalyse

Berlin - 18 May 2009Anders Kofoed-Wiuff,Ea Energy Analyses

Berlin - 18 May 2009Anders Kofoed-Wiuff,Ea Energy Analyses

Ea Energianalyse

Scope of the study

• Overview of current energy situation and scenarios for the future regional energy system

• Prioritized list of regional projects to promote the region as a sustainable region

• Outline the possibilities for the industry to be frontrunners in the development of new energy technologies

• Ideas for further development of regional knowledge sharing in the field of sustainable energy

Medio 2008 Medio 2009

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Three phases

• Phase I: Review of currrent situation – two scenarios for 2030 (completed)

• Phase II: Detailed scenario analyses of the electricity and district heating markets (ongoing)

• Phase III: Enhanced cooperation in the BSR (starting with Workshop in Kaliningrad, June 2009)

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• CCS• Nuclear power• Biomass

• Improved fuel economy

• Electric vehicles• Biofuels

• Energy savings• District heating - CHP• Biomass• Wind, wave, solar

• Improved fuel economy

• Electric vehicles• Modal-change• ICT

Phase I:Two scenarios for 2030

Small-tech Big-tech

Energy

Transport

…or perhaps a combination

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Results

-

2.000

4.000

6.000

8.000

10.000

12.000

14.000

16.000

2005 Reference 2030 Small-Tech Big-Tech

PJ

Gross energy consumption

Nuclear

RE

Natural gas

Coal

Oil

50% oil target

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Results

-200

-

200

400

600

800

1.000

Mt CO2 / year Other energy

Electricity and district heatTransport

Storage CO2

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Phase II• Detailed scenario analyses of the Baltic Sea

Region.• The scope of the analyses is to

– examine how the electricity system may develop to comply with medium and long-term policy objectives given different developments in the framework conditions

– show the value of establishing new electric interconnectors

– explore the consequences of national vs. regional policy objectives for renewable energy

– assess the costs and benefits of a concerted wind power planning and interconnection at Kriegers Flak.

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Balmorel model• The Balmorel model determines based on

market principles and regulation:– generation of electricity and heat,

distinguished by technology and fuel– consumption of electricity and heat– electricity transmission– emissions– prices– optimal investments in generation capacity

given framework conditions and cost data– costs and benefits of alternative scenarios

The model is open source: www.balmorel.com

Ea EnergianalyseDE_CS

• Basic model contains 17 areas with transmission constraints

• For the purpose of this study data for Russia is included in the model

• North-West Russia– Karelia– Kola– Pskov– Kaliningrad Arkhangelsk– St. Petersburg incl .

Leningrad– Novgorod– Komi Data is obtained from publicly

available sourcesData is obtained from publicly available sources

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Analyses

Leading to a synthesis scenarios for the region based on the outcome of the analyses and subsequent discussions of the results with key stakeholders in the region

(-50 % comp. to 1990)

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Fuel prices

• In accordance the latest projection of the International Energy Agency

Biomass/waste: 0-12 €/GJ

Long-term oil price:App. 120 USD/bbl

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* excl. North West Russia

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RE targets 2020

• Assuming, that the absolute share of renewable energy in electricity consumption should increase 1.5 times more than the overall share of renewable energy.

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Electricity demand

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Development nuclear power

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Wind power potentials

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Baseline: Electricity generation

Selected DRAFT results

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CO2-emissions (Mill. tonnes)Selected DRAFT results

1990

2005

20%red 50%red

38%red

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CO2 and RE pricesShadow prices for CO2 target and RE target

Country

2020 2030

CO2

EUR/ton

RE

EUR/MWhel

CO2

EUR/ton

RE

EUR/MWhel

Denmark

0

16

65

0Estonia 24 0 Finland 23 0Germany 25 0

Latvia 44 6Lithuania 26 0Norway 0 0Poland 46 8Sweden 26 0Russia 16 0


CO2-priceThe cost in the model of additionally reducing one ton of CO2(may be interpreted as an estimate of the CO2-price)

RE-priceThe cost in the model of additionally increasing RE generation by one MWh(maybe interpreted as an estimate of the cost of a RE certificate)

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Sensitivity – Regional RE targetSelected DRAFT results

Shadow prices for CO2 target and RE target

Country

2020 2030

CO2

EUR/ton

RE

EUR/MWhel

CO2

EUR/ton

RE

EUR/MWhel

Denmark

0 24 65 0

Estonia

Finland

Germany

Latvia

Lithuania

Norway

Poland

Sweden

Russia

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Based on the model analyses it will be possible to quantify the benefits of a common a RE framework

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To the consumer price should be added to the cost of RE subsidies/certificates

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Benefits of increasing thetransmission grid in the region


Germany Cen.

Germany NE

Germany NW

Denmark East

Denmark West Estonia Finland Lithuania Latvia

Norway M

Norway N

Norway Oslo

Norway S Poland Sweden M Sweden N Sweden S

Germany Cen. - 59.745 80.651 Germany NE 59.745 - 20.906 50.996 51.096 62.983 53.290 Germany NW 80.651 20.906 - 71.531 71.604 77.310 73.731 Denmark East 50.996 71.531 - 309 5.779 25.364 2.607 2.353 Denmark West 51.096 71.604 309 - 5.707 25.561 2.483 2.194 Estonia - 4.461 10.103 9.789 7.934 19.959 Finland 4.461 - 16.463 15.762 16.106 Lithuania 10.103 - 399 6.048 29.392 29.328 Latvia 9.789 399 - 6.407 29.473 29.409 Norway M - 244 3.506 200

Norway N 16.463 244 - 397 Norway Oslo 5.744 5.672 - 404 3.460 3.757 3.544

Norway S 77.310 5.707 3.506 404 - 3.343 3.475 Poland 100.468 62.983 25.364 6.048 6.407 - 23.400 Sweden M 2.607 2.483 19.959 15.762 29.392 29.473 3.460 3.343 - 344 322

Sweden N 16.106 200 397 3.757 3.475 344 -

Sweden S 53.290 73.731 2.353 2.194 29.328 29.409 3.544 23.400 322 -

Germany Cen.

Germany NE

Germany NW

Denmark East


Norway M

Norway N

Norway Oslo


Germany Cen. - 59.745 80.651 100.468 Germany NE 59.745 - 20.906 50.996 51.096 62.983 53.290 Germany NW 80.651 20.906 - 71.531 71.604 77.310 73.731 Denmark East 50.996 71.531 - 309 5.779 25.364 2.607 2.353 Denmark West 51.096 71.604 309 - 5.707 25.561 2.483 2.194 Estonia - 4.461 10.103 9.789 7.934 19.959 Finland 4.461 - 16.463 15.762 16.106 Lithuania 10.103 - 399 6.048 29.392 29.328 Latvia 9.789 399 - 6.407 29.473 29.409 Norway M - 244 3.506 200



Sweden N 16.106 200 397 3.757 3.475 344 -

Sweden S 53.290 73.731 2.353 2.194 29.328 29.409 3.544 23.400 322 -

Germany Cen.

Germany NE

Germany NW

Denmark East


Norway M

Norway N

Norway Oslo


Germany Cen. - 59.745 80.651 100.468 Germany NE 59.745 - 20.906 50.996 51.096 62.983 53.290 Germany NW 80.651 20.906 - 71.531 71.604 77.310 73.731 Denmark East 50.996 71.531 - 309 5.779 25.364 2.607 2.353 Denmark West 51.096 71.604 309 - 5.707 2.483 2.194 Estonia - 4.461 10.103 9.789 7.934 19.959 Finland 4.461 - 16.463 15.762 16.106 Lithuania 10.103 - 399 6.048 29.392 29.328 Latvia 9.789 399 - 6.407 29.473 29.409 Norway M - 244 3.506 200



Sweden N 16.106 200 397 3.757 3.475 344 -

Sweden S 53.290 73.731 2.353 2.194 29.328 29.409 3.544 23.400 322 -

€/MW capacity, in 2020, in the baseline scenario

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Preliminary observations

• The targets set-out can be achieved given the RE resources available (stronger targets could be met)

• Wind power appears to be the most cost-efficient measure (however more detailed analyses required)

• Benefits of increasing strengthening the transmission grid in the region – particular connections within and to/from Germany

• Benefits of cooperation on achieving RE targets

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Next steps

• Final report by June 2009• Presentation of results at

– WS: Energizing the sustainable growth in the Region, Kaliningrad, 10-11 June

– 4 June, Copenhagen, Foreign Ministers • Phase III

– Unfold the potentials identified in the scenario analyses through stakeholder activities and further analyses

– A synthesis scenario for the BSR– Cooperation with Nordic Energy Perspectives

Medio 2008 Medio 2009

Ea Energianalyse

Comments to BSPC report

• Involve the stakeholders in the region• Establish concrete activities on specific topics

– Opportunities for CHP in the big cities around the Baltic– Common plan for off-shore wind in the BS– Action plan for the utilization of municipal waste and

biogas for energy purposes– Information and communication technologies to replace

physical transportation• Mention Kriegers Flak as a showcase for the Baltic

Sea Region• Education of the new energy planners• Highlight the role of the cities as key to the

implementation of energy and climate policies

Ea Energianalyse

THANK YOU

HydroHydroNuclearBio

NuclearBioHydro

CoalNuclearWind

Coal

Hydro, Gas

Oilshale

Nuclear

CoalGasWind

GasCoalHydroNuclear

Expecte

d high economic

growth

GASOIL

GASOIL

Bioenergy

• Potential as share of gross energy demand

EU 27 16%

Baltic

31%

Calculation based on stats from DG TREN and EEA

Full Load Hours/Year

Wind energy resource

Ea Energianalyse

Baltic Sea RegionGross energy consumption

-

5.000

10.000

15.000

20.000

25.000

30.000

35.000

Norw

ay

Denm

ark

Swed

en

Finl

and

Esto

nia

Latv

ia

Lithu

ania

Pola

nd

Germ

any

Russ

ia

PJ

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Characteristics of the region

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Characteristics of the region

0

5

10

15

20

25

1990 1995 2000 2005

TJ/M€ Energy intensity

Old democracies New democracies

Nuclear power• Today

– 21 GW• Big-tech

– 28 GW– No phase-out in Sweden, Germany and Russia. New

nuclear in Poland, Lithuania and 6th reactor in Finland• Small-tech

– 9 GW– Phase-out in Germany, 50 % phase-out in Sweden

and Russia– No nuclear in Lithuania

Carbon Capture and Storage

• Key measure in Big-tech– 30 GW power capacity equipped with CCS supplying

20 % of overall electricity demand– all large thermal power plants commissioned beyond

2020 with CCS. Coal power plants commissioned in the period 2010-2020 are prepared for CCS

• Assuming– 90 % cleaning eff.– 10 %-point electric efficiency loss

Small-tech calls for smart grids and ICT

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Renewed focus on the region

• EU strategy for the Baltic Sea Region– by June 2009

• Baltic Interconnection Plan• European coordinators

– Connection to offshore wind power in Northern Europe

– “Poland-Lithuania link”

Study on ‘Enhanced regional energy cooperation in the Baltic Sea Region’

Ea Energianalyse

Key issues

• How should the energy systems in the region develop?– Big-tech, Small-tech – or perhaps a combination?

• How to ensure a coordinated planning for off-shore wind and new infrastructure project?

• How to develop the energy markets?– Electricity and gas - biomass?• How to promote best-practice policies on district

heating and CHP, energy savings, sustainable transport systems?

• How to cooperate on the demonstration of CCS?• How to promote industry cooperation on developing

and marketing energy efficient appliances?

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Next steps

• Detailed scenario analyses of the region• Least cost analyses based on targets for

the region, to illustrate cost and benefits of– National policies vs. coordinated policies– Interconnectors– Specific projects (off-shore wind, CCS,

nuclear, biomass)– Energy savings– Etc.

Documents

Ea Energianalyse Berlin - 18 May 2009 Anders Kofoed-Wiuff, Ea Energy Analyses Berlin - 18 May 2009 Anders Kofoed-Wiuff, Ea Energy Analyses