FORESTRY AND CLIMATE CHANGE IN KENYA

E-AGRI: DRSRS ROLE INTEREST AND EXPERTISECharles SitumaNairobi , KenyaCharles.situma@yahoo.comDRSRSE-Agri: Kick-off meeting, 24-25 March 2011, VITO (Mol, Belgium)1

Department of Resource Surveys and Remote Sensing (DRSRS)www.drsrs.go.keDRSRSE-Agri: Kick-off meeting, 24-25 March 2011, VITO (Mol, Belgium)Mission: Provision of Geo-Spatial data for decision-making in National development

Vision: a leading national focal centre of excellence in matters of Geo-Spatial science for rapid decision-making

Mandate:

Collection, storage, archiving, analysis, updating and dissemination of geo-spatial information on natural resources.

The data collected is processed and integrated leading to informed decision-making preparation of development plans and formulation of sector policies.

DRSRSDRSRSE-Agri: Kick-off meeting, 24-25 March 2011, VITO (Mol, Belgium)4DRSRS Capabilities Institution capacities Hard/Soft-wares

ArcGISGeovisGPS

ILWISERDASIDRISI

Over 40 state-of-the-Art h/ware3 twin engine aircraft, have modern navigation system for precise aerial survey & aerial photographyDRSRSE-Agri: Kick-off meeting, 24-25 March 2011, VITO (Mol, Belgium)Maize and wheat are the main staple food in Kenya accounting for over 80 percent of total cereals used at a household level

Rice is the third most consumed cereal

Each year the Food Steering Committee (FSC) of the Office of State, Special Programmes require information on Area, Yield and Production of these cereals

DRSRSE-Agri: Kick-off meeting, 24-25 March 2011, VITO (Mol, Belgium)

Spatial Population Distribution60s80s90s70sDRSRSE-Agri: Kick-off meeting, 24-25 March 2011, VITO (Mol, Belgium)Changes in population demography (1948-2009)DRSRSE-Agri: Kick-off meeting, 24-25 March 2011, VITO (Mol, Belgium)INTEREST IN E-AGRICrop area stratification

Estimation of area crop using vertical aerial photography

Determination of crop yield per hectare

Computation of crop production

Computation of consumption

DRSRSE-Agri: Kick-off meeting, 24-25 March 2011, VITO (Mol, Belgium)8Users of maize and wheat crop dataRCMRDFEWSNETUniversities/Research Min of AgricultureBureau of StatisticsMin of State -FSCAerial PhotosSatelliteImagesNDVI

CropAreaCrop YieldCropProdNGOsPrivate FirmsIndividualsDRSRSE-Agri: Kick-off meeting, 24-25 March 2011, VITO (Mol, Belgium)9

Agriculture expansion between 1990s and 2000s Population of Kenya in 2009 census = 38,610,097 people

20 % of Kenya support crop cultivation significant to the economy

Kenya requires approx 31 - 34 million bags of maize and 9 -11 million bags of wheat annually

Balance in food deficit met by substantial quantities of rice, potatoes and pulses produced locally and also from importsDRSRSE-Agri: Kick-off meeting, 24-25 March 2011, VITO (Mol, Belgium)

Satellite Data for Determination of Crop Strata 16 Landsat satellite scenes cover agricultural area

Cost: free for Landsat

Cost: Aster = US D 1,520

Economical

Poor accuracyDRSRSE-Agri: Kick-off meeting, 24-25 March 2011, VITO (Mol, Belgium)METHODS: ESTIMATION AREA

Aircraft:High winged twin or single engine (P68 or Cessna )Flying height of 1600 ftCamera:A 35 mm camera, 20 mm wide-angle lens GPS:Set to UTM WGS 84 datum or GeographicPhotographs:VerticalScale is approx. fixedDRSRSE-Agri: Kick-off meeting, 24-25 March 2011, VITO (Mol, Belgium)METHODS: DETERMINATION OF CROP YIELD

Tussled maize

Applies Remote Sensing Techniques a ratio of near-infrared and red band reflectance (NIR-VIS)/(NIR+VIS) is a surrogate for primary production Tektronix J16 digital radiometer NIR -700 - 1300nm VIS - 400 - 700nmDRSRSE-Agri: Kick-off meeting, 24-25 March 2011, VITO (Mol, Belgium)Relationship between Yield and ratio of R/IR Embu District in 1984DRSRSE-Agri: Kick-off meeting, 24-25 March 2011, VITO (Mol, Belgium)

Regression in Maize yield vs Production in selected districts 2004-07DRSRSE-Agri: Kick-off meeting, 24-25 March 2011, VITO (Mol, Belgium)

Trends in maize yield DRSRSE-Agri: Kick-off meeting, 24-25 March 2011, VITO (Mol, Belgium)

Collateral Information

Crop calendarLGPSeasonal progression of rainfall patternAgronomic practicesSoil moistureETPCrop growth modelSource: MoA, 2004DRSRSE-Agri: Kick-off meeting, 24-25 March 2011, VITO (Mol, Belgium)Crop calendar Contd

Lake Region & SouthernNorth Rift/WesternCentral & EasternCoastBOMETBUNGOMAEMBUKILIFIBONDOKEIYOKIAMBUKWALEBURETKERICHOKIRINYAGAMALINDIBUSIAKOIBATEKLAIKIPIABUTERE/MUMIASLUGARIMACHAKOSGUCHAMARAKWETMAKUENIHOMA BAYMT ELGONMARAGUAKAKAMEGANAKURUMBEEREKISII CENTRALNANDIMERU CENTRALKISUMUNYANDARUAMERU NORTHKURIATRANS NZOIAMERU SOUTHMIGORIUASIN GISHUMURANGANAROKWEST POKOTNYERINYAMIRATHARAKANYANDOTHIKARACHUONYOSIAYASUBATESOTRANS MARAVIHIGALong rains maize planting begin in Feb - March, harvesting in July-AugLong rains maize planting begin in March - April, harvesting in September -DecLong rains maize planting begin in March, harvesting in July-AugLong rains maize planting begin in March, harvesting in June-JulyDRSRSE-Agri: Kick-off meeting, 24-25 March 2011, VITO (Mol, Belgium)Agronomic Factors

Small scale farmers Range from 2 ha 12 haLargescale farmers Range from 10 ha 50 haSmall scale farmers Range from 1 ha 5 haFactors Land preparation (mechanized, traditional Type of seed (certified, traditional)Planting pattern (broadcast etc) Seed spacingFertilizer used (compost, etc) etcDRSRSE-Agri: Kick-off meeting, 24-25 March 2011, VITO (Mol, Belgium)

Kajiado district, 2008Isiolo district, 2008AnomaliesAnomaliesDRSRSE-Agri: Kick-off meeting, 24-25 March 2011, VITO (Mol, Belgium)Crop ProductionProduction = Area * Yield

DRSRSE-Agri: Kick-off meeting, 24-25 March 2011, VITO (Mol, Belgium)Maize consumption/Production 1985-2010Average consumption rate being 98 Kg per person per year (FEWSNET, 1997)Source: DRSRS Database 1985-2010)DRSRSE-Agri: Kick-off meeting, 24-25 March 2011, VITO (Mol, Belgium)

WheatAverage consumption rate of wheat being 27 Kg per person per year (FEWSNET, 1997)Source: DRSRS Technical 2004-2007DRSRSE-Agri: Kick-off meeting, 24-25 March 2011, VITO (Mol, Belgium)RecommendationsNeed to increase in crop yield since area appear crop appear to remain relatively constant year after year

Need to increase field checks to improve the Confusion Connotation matrix or error matrix

The Government should continue sponsoring crop monitoring and assessment programme since it has proved reliable

Research on use of satellite imagery for area estimation of crop in comparison to aerial use of photography

Continuously review regression relationship between yield and spectrometric ratio of RED/INRA-RED in each AEZ

Increase and enhance collateral information sourcesDRSRSE-Agri: Kick-off meeting, 24-25 March 2011, VITO (Mol, Belgium)End

Thank youDRSRSE-Agri: Kick-off meeting, 24-25 March 2011, VITO (Mol, Belgium)Chart42600003000005000007200002500001300000700000650000750000280000175000090000070000076000030000018000001000000750000860000330000

NakuruNarokNyamiraMt ElgonKoibatekYield by district (bags/ha)Production (90 Kg bags)Nakuru (R = 0.957)Narok (R = 0.991)Nyamira (R = 0.994)Mt Elgone (R = 0.843)Koibatek (R = 0.962)

Sheet1YieldDistrict2004200520062007Nakuru5162728Narok7192526Nyamira24282930Mt Elgon35364145Koibatek15192528Production2004200520062007Nakuru260000130000017500001800000Narok3000007000009000001000000Nyamira500000650000700000750000Mt Elgon720000750000760000860000Koibatek250000280000300000330000

Sheet1

NakuruNarokNyamiraMt ElgonKoibatekYield by district (bags/ha)Production (90 Kg bags)Nakuru (R = 0.957)Narok (R = 0.991)Nyamira (R = 0.994)Mt Elgone (R = 0.843)Koibatek (R = 0.962)

Sheet2

Sheet3

Chart12121.721.222.92325.226

YielcYearAv. yield (bags/ha)

Sheet1Year2004200520062007200820092010Av. Yield (Bags/ha)2121.721.222.92325.226

Sheet1

YielcYearAv. yield (bags/ha)

Sheet2

Sheet3

Chart1-1.2392964018-1.0768295901-0.8724741081-0.7137987761-0.31719696060.2006291559-0.7086260013-1.2104934341-1.07573544250.6629249280.23092532551.35783756590.40643591670.41742270630.4782450667-0.96729740690.206867583-0.5371683852-0.2812007942-0.3791907143-1.4281315358-0.818907264-1.4753562466-1.76203107390.2798411230.0725952533-0.6268888036-1.3475453531-1.3653260478-1.1519996696-1.7771890191-1.4875943407-1.0757354425-1.1893653121.69345238740.9978527229-0.0999432582-0.27223219970.1098671099-0.08005219920.59991599070.0776628991-0.0674881906-0.1020898077-0.01854716280.292466880.7184343462-0.0821018063-0.3531328457-0.3871746841-0.8724741081-1.34754535310.2068675830.93842669710.78736222371.56051563190.6862450237-0.4484492160.96218885650.75786282750.7862202979-0.1572897154-0.5040961513-0.4603001454-0.05516468880.07766289910.7873622237-0.1020898077-1.0757354425-0.448449216-0.0128291848-0.5620815971-0.9861068143-0.3871746841-0.13571819460.93394232391.12398053430.56952792650.1462244130.4521120055-0.370943256-0.818907264-0.987847226-1.28205128320.2798411231.1070776123-0.01292554230.42694506240.99296439841.67622423831.4285000344-0.10208980770.68624502371.7742990720.9621888565-0.08210180631.54578906030.41742270631.33779363241.44093958550.59991599070.56952792651.2147874308-0.37919071431.03864111690.6629249280.47467983590.0378931414-0.6063224331-0.5021171684-0.74968145580.1734464316-0.18618082470.2006291559-0.4949133977-1.2104934341-0.0185471628-0.448449216-0.7440927157-0.44208664940.0266515355-0.6170596527-0.8724741081-0.58704946070.7309321266-0.16826961470.35993701650.17501109890.3338489304-0.077991168-0.0128291848-0.80207149240.15324632932.02661748691.4605862847-0.5870494607-1.103293776-1.2749659264-0.9223386049-0.9333925275-0.370943256-0.818907264-1.2316017363-0.5620815971-0.9861068143-0.61705965270.3554524144-0.2068015146-1.103293776-1.02903341270.146224413-0.1020898077-0.370943256-0.077991168-0.01282918481.11784767061.1660046791-0.04234723110.7238303712-0.2068015146-0.5792292324-0.0453033578-0.49491339770.1750110989-0.0185471628-0.448449216-0.5003382054-1.1620563355-1.2392964018-0.7320021371-0.38130349910.8071930085-0.5792292324-0.4142021284-0.28120079420.4521120055-0.0185471628-0.077991168-1.2316017363-0.4420866494-1.3658911955-1.1917720744-1.2408520648-0.08005219921.64804507791.0613929541.00107482721.83761653851.74343330340.6629249281.93720689771.95781230442.17876302892.71627239292.68851280721.69443821621.12398053431.67622423831.64221263792.11471744512.09582939672.515215168-0.987847226-0.5620815971-0.7329172269-0.6170596527-0.01292554232.07468616240.3378837189-0.1682696147-0.49491339770.17501109890.68624502370.6629249280.71843434621.11784767060.7862202979-0.1572897154-0.8724741081-0.9672974069-2.2824389991-2.2586959813-1.9909016227-0.9333925275-1.4281315358-1.55982336-0.50033820540.3978779844

anomaliestimeNDVI deviation from normal

Sheet1NDVIyearmonthtimekimanomNDVImeanstdev0.21198282001Jan-821-1.2390.3080.0790.19198282002Feb-822-1.0770.2840.0870.19198282003Mar-823-0.8720.2610.0810.25198282004Apr-824-0.7140.3060.0790.32198282005May-825-0.3170.3440.0760.28198282006Jun-8260.2010.2640.0810.16198282007Jul-827-0.7090.1930.0470.11198282008Aug-828-1.2100.1540.0360.13198282009Sep-829-1.0760.1610.0280.17198282010Oct-82100.6630.1520.0270.22198282011Nov-82110.2310.2110.0410.43198282012Dec-82121.3580.3170.0830.34198383001Jan-8310.4060.3080.0790.32198383002Feb-8320.4170.2840.0870.3198383003Mar-8330.4780.2610.0810.23198383004Apr-834-0.9670.3060.0790.36198383005May-8350.2070.3440.0760.22198383006Jun-836-0.5370.2640.0810.18198383007Jul-837-0.2810.1930.0470.14198383008Aug-838-0.3790.1540.0360.12198383009Sep-839-1.4280.1610.0280.13198383010Oct-8310-0.8190.1520.0270.15198383011Nov-8311-1.4750.2110.0410.17198383012Dec-8312-1.7620.3170.0830.33198484001Jan-8410.2800.3080.0790.29198484002Feb-8420.0730.2840.0870.21198484003Mar-843-0.6270.2610.0810.2198484004Apr-844-1.3480.3060.0790.24198484005May-845-1.3650.3440.0760.17198484006Jun-846-1.1520.2640.0810.11198484007Jul-847-1.7770.1930.0470.1198484008Aug-848-1.4880.1540.0360.13198484009Sep-849-1.0760.1610.0280.12198484010Oct-8410-1.1890.1520.0270.28198484011Nov-84111.6930.2110.0410.4198484012Dec-84120.9980.3170.0830.3198585001Jan-851-0.1000.3080.0790.26198585002Feb-852-0.2720.2840.0870.27198585003Mar-8530.1100.2610.0810.3198585004Apr-854-0.0800.3060.0790.39198585005May-8550.6000.3440.0760.27198585006Jun-8560.0780.2640.0810.19198585007Jul-857-0.0670.1930.0470.15198585008Aug-858-0.1020.1540.0360.16198585009Sep-859-0.0190.1610.0280.16198585010Oct-85100.2920.1520.0270.24198585011Nov-85110.7180.2110.0410.31198585012Dec-8512-0.0820.3170.0830.28198686001Jan-861-0.3530.3080.0790.25198686002Feb-862-0.3870.2840.0870.19198686003Mar-863-0.8720.2610.0810.2198686004Apr-864-1.3480.3060.0790.36198686005May-8650.2070.3440.0760.34198686006Jun-8660.9380.2640.0810.23198686007Jul-8670.7870.1930.0470.21198686008Aug-8681.5610.1540.0360.18198686009Sep-8690.6860.1610.0280.14198686010Oct-8610-0.4480.1520.0270.25198686011Nov-86110.9620.2110.0410.38198686012Dec-86120.7580.3170.0830.37198787001Jan-8710.7860.3080.0790.27198787002Feb-872-0.1570.2840.0870.22198787003Mar-873-0.5040.2610.0810.27198787004Apr-874-0.4600.3060.0790.34198787005May-875-0.0550.3440.0760.27198787006Jun-8760.0780.2640.0810.23198787007Jul-8770.7870.1930.0470.15198787008Aug-878-0.1020.1540.0360.13198787009Sep-879-1.0760.1610.0280.14198787010Oct-8710-0.4480.1520.0270.21198787011Nov-8711-0.0130.2110.0410.27198787012Dec-8712-0.5620.3170.0830.23198888001Jan-881-0.9860.3080.0790.25198888002Feb-882-0.3870.2840.0870.25198888003Mar-883-0.1360.2610.0810.38198888004Apr-8840.9340.3060.0790.43198888005May-8851.1240.3440.0760.31198888006Jun-8860.5700.2640.0810.2198888007Jul-8870.1460.1930.0470.17198888008Aug-8880.4520.1540.0360.15198888009Sep-889-0.3710.1610.0280.13198888010Oct-8810-0.8190.1520.0270.17198888011Nov-8811-0.9880.2110.0410.21198888012Dec-8812-1.2820.3170.0830.33198989001Jan-8910.2800.3080.0790.38198989002Feb-8921.1070.2840.0870.26198989003Mar-893-0.0130.2610.0810.34198989004Apr-8940.4270.3060.0790.42198989005May-8950.9930.3440.0760.4198989006Jun-8961.6760.2640.0810.26198989007Jul-8971.4290.1930.0470.15198989008Aug-898-0.1020.1540.0360.18198989009Sep-8990.6860.1610.0280.2198989010Oct-89101.7740.1520.0270.25198989011Nov-89110.9620.2110.0410.31198989012Dec-8912-0.0820.3170.0830.4319909001Jan-9011.5460.3080.0790.3219909002Feb-9020.4170.2840.0870.3719909003Mar-9031.3380.2610.0810.4219909004Apr-9041.4410.3060.0790.3919909005May-9050.6000.3440.0760.3119909006Jun-9060.5700.2640.0810.2519909007Jul-9071.2150.1930.0470.1419909008Aug-908-0.3790.1540.0360.1919909009Sep-9091.0390.1610.0280.1719909010Oct-90100.6630.1520.0270.2319909011Nov-90110.4750.2110.0410.3219909012Dec-90120.0380.3170.0830.26199191001Jan-911-0.6060.3080.0790.24199191002Feb-912-0.5020.2840.0870.2199191003Mar-913-0.7500.2610.0810.32199191004Apr-9140.1730.3060.0790.33199191005May-915-0.1860.3440.0760.28199191006Jun-9160.2010.2640.0810.17199191007Jul-917-0.4950.1930.0470.11199191008Aug-918-1.2100.1540.0360.16199191009Sep-919-0.0190.1610.0280.14199191010Oct-9110-0.4480.1520.0270.18199191011Nov-9111-0.7440.2110.0410.28199191012Dec-9112-0.4420.3170.0830.3119929201Jan-9210.0270.3080.0790.2319929202Feb-922-0.6170.2840.0870.1919929203Mar-923-0.8720.2610.0810.2619929204Apr-924-0.5870.3060.0790.419929205May-9250.7310.3440.0760.2519929206Jun-926-0.1680.2640.0810.2119929207Jul-9270.3600.1930.0470.1619929208Aug-9280.1750.1540.0360.1719929209Sep-9290.3340.1610.0280.1519929210Oct-9210-0.0780.1520.0270.2119929211Nov-9211-0.0130.2110.0410.2519929212Dec-9212-0.8020.3170.0830.3219939301Jan-9310.1530.3080.0790.4619939302Feb-9322.0270.2840.0870.3819939303Mar-9331.4610.2610.0810.2619939304Apr-934-0.5870.3060.0790.2619939305May-935-1.1030.3440.0760.1619939306Jun-936-1.2750.2640.0810.1519939307Jul-937-0.9220.1930.0470.1219939308Aug-938-0.9330.1540.0360.1519939309Sep-939-0.3710.1610.0280.1319939310Oct-9310-0.8190.1520.0270.1619939311Nov-9311-1.2320.2110.0410.2719939312Dec-9312-0.5620.3170.0830.2319949401Jan-941-0.9860.3080.0790.2319949402Feb-942-0.6170.2840.0870.2919949403Mar-9430.3550.2610.0810.2919949404Apr-944-0.2070.3060.0790.2619949405May-945-1.1030.3440.0760.1819949406Jun-946-1.0290.2640.0810.219949407Jul-9470.1460.1930.0470.1519949408Aug-948-0.1020.1540.0360.1519949409Sep-949-0.3710.1610.0280.1519949410Oct-9410-0.0780.1520.0270.2119949411Nov-9411-0.0130.2110.0410.4119949412Dec-94121.1180.3170.0830.4199595001Jan-9511.1660.3080.0790.28199595002Feb-952-0.0420.2840.0870.32199595003Mar-9530.7240.2610.0810.29199595004Apr-954-0.2070.3060.0790.3199595005May-955-0.5790.3440.0760.26199595006Jun-956-0.0450.2640.0810.17199595007Jul-957-0.4950.1930.0470.16199595008Aug-9580.1750.1540.0360.16199595009Sep-959-0.0190.1610.0280.14199595010Oct-9510-0.4480.1520.0270.19199595011Nov-9511-0.5000.2110.0410.22199595012Dec-9512-1.1620.3170.0830.21199696001Jan-961-1.2390.3080.0790.22199696002Feb-962-0.7320.2840.0870.23199696003Mar-963-0.3810.2610.0810.37199696004Apr-9640.8070.3060.0790.3199696005May-965-0.5790.3440.0760.23199696006Jun-966-0.4140.2640.0810.18199696007Jul-967-0.2810.1930.0470.17199696008Aug-9680.4520.1540.0360.16199696009Sep-969-0.0190.1610.0280.15199696010Oct-9610-0.0780.1520.0270.16199696011Nov-9611-1.2320.2110.0410.28199696012Dec-9612-0.4420.3170.0830.2199797001Jan-971-1.3660.3080.0790.18199797002Feb-972-1.1920.2840.0870.16199797003Mar-973-1.2410.2610.0810.3199797004Apr-974-0.0800.3060.0790.47199797005May-9751.6480.3440.0760.35199797006Jun-9761.0610.2640.0810.24199797007Jul-9771.0010.1930.0470.22199797008Aug-9781.8380.1540.0360.21199797009Sep-9791.7430.1610.0280.17199797010Oct-97100.6630.1520.0270.29199797011Nov-97111.9370.2110.0410.48199797012Dec-97121.9580.3170.0830.48199898001Jan-9812.1790.3080.0790.52199898002Feb-9822.7160.2840.0870.48199898003Mar-9832.6890.2610.0810.44199898004Apr-9841.6940.3060.0790.43199898005May-9851.1240.3440.0760.4199898006Jun-9861.6760.2640.0810.27199898007Jul-9871.6420.1930.0470.23199898008Aug-9882.1150.1540.0360.22199898009Sep-9892.0960.1610.0280.22199898010Oct-98102.5150.1520.0270.17199898011Nov-9811-0.9880.2110.0410.27199898012Dec-9812-0.5620.3170.0830.25199999001Jan-991-0.7330.3080.0790.23199999002Feb-992-0.6170.2840.0870.26199999003Mar-993-0.0130.2610.0810.47199999004Apr-9942.0750.3060.0790.37199999005May-9950.3380.3440.0760.25199999006Jun-996-0.1680.2640.0810.17199999007Jul-997-0.4950.1930.0470.16199999008Aug-9980.1750.1540.0360.18199999009Sep-9990.6860.1610.0280.17199999010Oct-99100.6630.1520.0270.24199999011Nov-99110.7180.2110.0410.41199999012Dec-99121.1180.3170.0830.3720001Jan-0010.7860.3080.0790.2720002Feb-002-0.1570.2840.0870.1920003Mar-003-0.8720.2610.0810.2320004Apr-004-0.9670.3060.0790.1720005May-005-2.2820.3440.0760.0820006Jun-006-2.2590.2640.0810.120007Jul-007-1.9910.1930.0470.1220008Aug-008-0.9330.1540.0360.1220009Sep-009-1.4280.1610.0280.11200010Oct-0010-1.5600.1520.0270.19200011Nov-0011-0.5000.2110.0410.35200012Dec-00120.3980.3170.083

Sheet1000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000

anomaliesTimeNDVI deviation from normal

KAJIKajiado Averagesstatyearmonth0.21198282001Jan-820.19198282002Feb-820.19198282003Mar-820.25198282004Apr-820.32198282005May-820.28198282006Jun-820.16198282007Jul-820.11198282008Aug-820.13198282009Sep-820.17198282010Oct-820.22198282011Nov-820.43198282012Dec-820.34198383001Jan-830.32198383002Feb-830.3198383003Mar-830.23198383004Apr-830.36198383005May-830.22198383006Jun-830.18198383007Jul-830.14198383008Aug-830.12198383009Sep-830.13198383010Oct-830.15198383011Nov-830.17198383012Dec-830.33198484001Jan-840.29198484002Feb-840.21198484003Mar-840.2198484004Apr-840.24198484005May-840.17198484006Jun-840.11198484007Jul-840.1198484008Aug-840.13198484009Sep-840.12198484010Oct-840.28198484011Nov-840.4198484012Dec-840.3198585001Jan-850.26198585002Feb-850.27198585003Mar-850.3198585004Apr-850.39198585005May-850.27198585006Jun-850.19198585007Jul-850.15198585008Aug-850.16198585009Sep-850.16198585010Oct-850.24198585011Nov-850.31198585012Dec-850.28198686001Jan-860.25198686002Feb-860.19198686003Mar-860.2198686004Apr-860.36198686005May-860.34198686006Jun-860.23198686007Jul-860.21198686008Aug-860.18198686009Sep-860.14198686010Oct-860.25198686011Nov-860.38198686012Dec-860.37198787001Jan-870.27198787002Feb-870.22198787003Mar-870.27198787004Apr-870.34198787005May-870.27198787006Jun-870.23198787007Jul-870.15198787008Aug-870.13198787009Sep-870.14198787010Oct-870.21198787011Nov-870.27198787012Dec-870.23198888001Jan-880.25198888002Feb-880.25198888003Mar-880.38198888004Apr-880.43198888005May-880.31198888006Jun-880.2198888007Jul-880.17198888008Aug-880.15198888009Sep-880.13198888010Oct-880.17198888011Nov-880.21198888012Dec-880.33198989001Jan-890.38198989002Feb-890.26198989003Mar-890.34198989004Apr-890.42198989005May-890.4198989006Jun-890.26198989007Jul-890.15198989008Aug-890.18198989009Sep-890.2198989010Oct-890.25198989011Nov-890.31198989012Dec-890.4319909001Jan-900.3219909002Feb-900.3719909003Mar-900.4219909004Apr-900.3919909005May-900.3119909006Jun-900.2519909007Jul-900.1419909008Aug-900.1919909009Sep-900.1719909010Oct-900.2319909011Nov-900.3219909012Dec-900.26199191001Jan-910.24199191002Feb-910.2199191003Mar-910.32199191004Apr-910.33199191005May-910.28199191006Jun-910.17199191007Jul-910.11199191008Aug-910.16199191009Sep-910.14199191010Oct-910.18199191011Nov-910.28199191012Dec-910.3119929201Jan-920.2319929202Feb-920.1919929203Mar-920.2619929204Apr-920.419929205May-920.2519929206Jun-920.2119929207Jul-920.1619929208Aug-920.1719929209Sep-920.1519929210Oct-920.2119929211Nov-920.2519929212Dec-920.3219939301Jan-930.4619939302Feb-930.3819939303Mar-930.2619939304Apr-930.2619939305May-930.1619939306Jun-930.1519939307Jul-930.1219939308Aug-930.1519939309Sep-930.1319939310Oct-930.1619939311Nov-930.2719939312Dec-930.2319949401Jan-940.2319949402Feb-940.2919949403Mar-940.2919949404Apr-940.2619949405May-940.1819949406Jun-940.219949407Jul-940.1519949408Aug-940.1519949409Sep-940.1519949410Oct-940.2119949411Nov-940.4119949412Dec-940.4199595001Jan-950.28199595002Feb-950.32199595003Mar-950.29199595004Apr-950.3199595005May-950.26199595006Jun-950.17199595007Jul-950.16199595008Aug-950.16199595009Sep-950.14199595010Oct-950.19199595011Nov-950.22199595012Dec-950.21199696001Jan-960.22199696002Feb-960.23199696003Mar-960.37199696004Apr-960.3199696005May-960.23199696006Jun-960.18199696007Jul-960.17199696008Aug-960.16199696009Sep-960.15199696010Oct-960.16199696011Nov-960.28199696012Dec-960.2199797001Jan-970.18199797002Feb-970.16199797003Mar-970.3199797004Apr-970.47199797005May-970.35199797006Jun-970.24199797007Jul-970.22199797008Aug-970.21199797009Sep-970.17199797010Oct-970.29199797011Nov-970.48199797012Dec-970.48199898001Jan-980.52199898002Feb-980.48199898003Mar-980.44199898004Apr-980.43199898005May-980.4199898006Jun-980.27199898007Jul-980.23199898008Aug-980.22199898009Sep-980.22199898010Oct-980.17199898011Nov-980.27199898012Dec-980.25199999001Jan-990.23199999002Feb-990.26199999003Mar-990.47199999004Apr-990.37199999005May-990.25199999006Jun-990.17199999007Jul-990.16199999008Aug-990.18199999009Sep-990.17199999010Oct-990.24199999011Nov-990.41199999012Dec-990.3720001Jan-000.2720002Feb-000.1920003Mar-000.2320004Apr-000.1720005May-000.0820006Jun-000.120007Jul-000.1220008Aug-000.1220009Sep-000.11200010Oct-000.19200011Nov-000.35200012Dec-00

Chart1-0.8644920724-0.5633250233-0.35897507720.062415276-0.5527086479-0.2294157339-0.4927063524-0.8383064687-0.71237706120.21704081890.79624841670.63671474250.04242905880.0247615395-0.0687399084-0.9917093846-0.5527086479-0.4110365232-0.4927063524-0.45907259-0.7123770612-0.8139030709-0.7293367851-1.1931713242-0.8644920724-0.4457077108-0.649210246-1.2552405497-1.4383743127-0.9558988911-1.461129183-1.2175403473-1.1489952599-0.81390307090.66911631660.53505440550.2439670879-0.2104730856-0.21385749280.19418085851.09209901520.31544663410.47571647820.29939516740.16085933640.2170408189-0.6022046849-1.0915109871-1.0660301016-0.7985596484-0.649210246-0.46464705430.45948068320.13382584480.1529088680.2993951674-0.2757588624-0.4702551076-0.72933678510.63671474250.5462741317-0.0928557731-0.3589750772-0.2011158892-0.6792323143-0.4110365232-0.1698987422-0.45907259-0.7123770612-0.8139030709-0.8564688852-1.1931713242-1.0660301016-0.7985596484-0.649210246-0.33288147170.83905168240.6786882127-0.16989874220.29939516740.1608593364-0.8139030709-0.7293367851-1.1931713242-0.0583399558-0.0928557731-0.3589750772-0.06935030660.58600434960.67868821270.4757164782-0.0798387113-0.2757588624-0.1266071444-0.09367628430.84003541660.24396708790.1423788521.09220076682.56596134461.3451463481.22355058061.7669469191.05786292471.0340957340.90433674541.17764471720.94169575360.74781216080.25999616460.65684801360.4577120236-0.6792323143-0.7742781018-1.461129183-2.3552419834-0.7123770612-0.8139030709-0.8564688852-0.786529976-0.7637230579-0.6809423359-0.9394454148-0.859943802-0.4261849815-0.4110365232-0.4927063524-0.8383064687-0.7123770612-0.8139030709-0.47507258480.33173373141.85627132121.43616929020.8019655980.0624152760.4594806832-0.2294157339-0.4927063524-0.0798387113-0.7123770612-0.47025510760.92338051690.3317337314-0.4614160141-0.5633250233-0.649210246-0.9917093846-0.2996613151-0.77427810180.1529088680.29939516740.59747753521.24798470871.55904101760.73837507950.949350190.1423788520.51173042920.19418085850.45948068320.31544663410.1529088680.29939516740.1608593364-0.4702551076-0.4750725848-0.9898506501-0.8644920724-0.5633250233-0.649210246-0.859943802-1.4383743127-0.9558988911-0.4927063524-0.45907259-0.7123770612-0.4702551076-0.9836009854-0.3798886279-0.7637230579-0.4457077108-0.50409266161.11653993651.85124101351.405171371.7669469191.43709680341.47071393272.27892859852.57609781882.46660080922.56165442333.55328091633.41408211711.90713343181.09209901522.49489610582.08975452922.19556456082.78056852912.2789285985-0.7293367851-0.4815489649-0.4614160141-0.2104730856-0.06873990840.3259464411-0.5527086479-0.2294157339-0.16989874220.67862904611.0340957340.21704081890.03345581580.63671474250.0424290588-0.0928557731-0.3589750772-0.859943802-1.5648979791-1.8640028377-1.1383215728-0.0798387113-0.7123770612-0.4702551076-0.4750725848-0.786529976

AnomaliesTimeNDVI deviations from nomal

Sheet1NDVIyearmonthtimekimAnomaliesMeanStd0.14198282001Jan-821-0.86449207240.22578947370.09923685410.13198282002Feb-822-0.56332502330.17789473680.08502149710.13198282003Mar-823-0.35897507720.15473684210.06890963660.2198282004Apr-8240.0624152760.19526315790.07589235220.19198282005May-825-0.55270864790.23368421050.07903659670.14198282006Jun-826-0.22941573390.15263157890.05505977610.11198282007Jul-827-0.49270635240.12526315790.0309782040.1198282008Aug-828-0.83830646870.12210526320.02636895210.11198282009Sep-829-0.71237706120.12631578950.02290330550.13198282010Oct-82100.21704081890.12368421050.02909954680.25198282011Nov-82110.79624841670.18736842110.07865834030.33198282012Dec-82120.63671474250.26736842110.09836677990.23198383001Jan-8310.04242905880.22578947370.09923685410.18198383002Feb-8320.02476153950.17789473680.08502149710.15198383003Mar-833-0.06873990840.15473684210.06890963660.12198383004Apr-834-0.99170938460.19526315790.07589235220.19198383005May-835-0.55270864790.23368421050.07903659670.13198383006Jun-836-0.41103652320.15263157890.05505977610.11198383007Jul-837-0.49270635240.12526315790.0309782040.11198383008Aug-838-0.459072590.12210526320.02636895210.11198383009Sep-839-0.71237706120.12631578950.02290330550.1198383010Oct-8310-0.81390307090.12368421050.02909954680.13198383011Nov-8311-0.72933678510.18736842110.07865834030.15198383012Dec-8312-1.19317132420.26736842110.09836677990.14198484001Jan-841-0.86449207240.22578947370.09923685410.14198484002Feb-842-0.44570771080.17789473680.08502149710.11198484003Mar-843-0.6492102460.15473684210.06890963660.1198484004Apr-844-1.25524054970.19526315790.07589235220.12198484005May-845-1.43837431270.23368421050.07903659670.1198484006Jun-846-0.95589889110.15263157890.05505977610.08198484007Jul-847-1.4611291830.12526315790.0309782040.09198484008Aug-848-1.21754034730.12210526320.02636895210.1198484009Sep-849-1.14899525990.12631578950.02290330550.1198484010Oct-8410-0.81390307090.12368421050.02909954680.24198484011Nov-84110.66911631660.18736842110.07865834030.32198484012Dec-84120.53505440550.26736842110.09836677990.25198585001Jan-8510.24396708790.22578947370.09923685410.16198585002Feb-852-0.21047308560.17789473680.08502149710.14198585003Mar-853-0.21385749280.15473684210.06890963660.21198585004Apr-8540.19418085850.19526315790.07589235220.32198585005May-8551.09209901520.23368421050.07903659670.17198585006Jun-8560.31544663410.15263157890.05505977610.14198585007Jul-8570.47571647820.12526315790.0309782040.13198585008Aug-8580.29939516740.12210526320.02636895210.13198585009Sep-8590.16085933640.12631578950.02290330550.13198585010Oct-85100.21704081890.12368421050.02909954680.14198585011Nov-8511-0.60220468490.18736842110.07865834030.16198585012Dec-8512-1.09151098710.26736842110.09836677990.12198686001Jan-861-1.06603010160.22578947370.09923685410.11198686002Feb-862-0.79855964840.17789473680.08502149710.11198686003Mar-863-0.6492102460.15473684210.06890963660.16198686004Apr-864-0.46464705430.19526315790.07589235220.27198686005May-8650.45948068320.23368421050.07903659670.16198686006Jun-8660.13382584480.15263157890.05505977610.13198686007Jul-8670.1529088680.12526315790.0309782040.13198686008Aug-8680.29939516740.12210526320.02636895210.12198686009Sep-869-0.27575886240.12631578950.02290330550.11198686010Oct-8610-0.47025510760.12368421050.02909954680.13198686011Nov-8611-0.72933678510.18736842110.07865834030.33198686012Dec-86120.63671474250.26736842110.09836677990.28198787001Jan-8710.54627413170.22578947370.09923685410.17198787002Feb-872-0.09285577310.17789473680.08502149710.13198787003Mar-873-0.35897507720.15473684210.06890963660.18198787004Apr-874-0.20111588920.19526315790.07589235220.18198787005May-875-0.67923231430.23368421050.07903659670.13198787006Jun-876-0.41103652320.15263157890.05505977610.12198787007Jul-877-0.16989874220.12526315790.0309782040.11198787008Aug-878-0.459072590.12210526320.02636895210.11198787009Sep-879-0.71237706120.12631578950.02290330550.1198787010Oct-8710-0.81390307090.12368421050.02909954680.12198787011Nov-8711-0.85646888520.18736842110.07865834030.15198787012Dec-8712-1.19317132420.26736842110.09836677990.12198888001Jan-881-1.06603010160.22578947370.09923685410.11198888002Feb-882-0.79855964840.17789473680.08502149710.11198888003Mar-883-0.6492102460.15473684210.06890963660.17198888004Apr-884-0.33288147170.19526315790.07589235220.3198888005May-8850.83905168240.23368421050.07903659670.19198888006Jun-8860.67868821270.15263157890.05505977610.12198888007Jul-887-0.16989874220.12526315790.0309782040.13198888008Aug-8880.29939516740.12210526320.02636895210.13198888009Sep-8890.16085933640.12631578950.02290330550.1198888010Oct-8810-0.81390307090.12368421050.02909954680.13198888011Nov-8811-0.72933678510.18736842110.07865834030.15198888012Dec-8812-1.19317132420.26736842110.09836677990.22198989001Jan-891-0.05833995580.22578947370.09923685410.17198989002Feb-892-0.09285577310.17789473680.08502149710.13198989003Mar-893-0.35897507720.15473684210.06890963660.19198989004Apr-894-0.06935030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-0.12660714440.12368421050.02909954680.1519909010Oct-90100.90433674540.12368421050.02909954680.1199191010Oct-9110-0.81390307090.12368421050.02909954680.119929210Oct-9210-0.81390307090.12368421050.02909954680.1119939310Oct-9310-0.47025510760.12368421050.02909954680.1619949410Oct-94101.24798470870.12368421050.02909954680.11199595010Oct-9510-0.47025510760.12368421050.02909954680.11199696010Oct-9610-0.47025510760.12368421050.02909954680.19199797010Oct-97102.27892859850.12368421050.02909954680.19199898010Oct-98102.27892859850.12368421050.02909954680.13199999010Oct-99100.21704081890.12368421050.02909954680.11200010Oct-0010-0.47025510760.12368421050.02909954680.25198282011Nov-82110.79624841670.18736842110.07865834030.13198383011Nov-8311-0.72933678510.18736842110.07865834030.24198484011Nov-84110.66911631660.18736842110.07865834030.14198585011Nov-8511-0.60220468490.18736842110.07865834030.13198686011Nov-8611-0.72933678510.18736842110.07865834030.12198787011Nov-8711-0.85646888520.18736842110.07865834030.13198888011Nov-8811-0.72933678510.18736842110.07865834030.18198989011Nov-8911-0.09367628430.18736842110.07865834030.2819909011Nov-90111.17764471720.18736842110.07865834030.12199191011Nov-9111-0.85646888520.18736842110.07865834030.1519929211Nov-9211-0.47507258480.18736842110.07865834030.2619939311Nov-93110.92338051690.18736842110.07865834030.3119949411Nov-94111.55904101760.18736842110.07865834030.15199595011Nov-9511-0.47507258480.18736842110.07865834030.11199696011Nov-9611-0.98360098540.18736842110.07865834030.39199797011Nov-97112.57609781880.18736842110.07865834030.13199898011Nov-9811-0.72933678510.18736842110.07865834030.19199999011Nov-99110.03345581580.18736842110.07865834030.15200011Nov-0011-0.47507258480.18736842110.07865834030.33198282012Dec-82120.63671474250.26736842110.09836677990.15198383012Dec-8312-1.19317132420.26736842110.09836677990.32198484012Dec-84120.53505440550.26736842110.09836677990.16198585012Dec-8512-1.09151098710.26736842110.09836677990.33198686012Dec-86120.63671474250.26736842110.09836677990.15198787012Dec-8712-1.19317132420.26736842110.09836677990.15198888012Dec-8812-1.19317132420.26736842110.09836677990.35198989012Dec-89120.84003541660.26736842110.09836677990.3619909012Dec-90120.94169575360.26736842110.09836677990.19199191012Dec-9112-0.7865299760.26736842110.09836677990.319929212Dec-92120.33173373140.26736842110.09836677990.319939312Dec-93120.33173373140.26736842110.09836677990.3419949412Dec-94120.73837507950.26736842110.09836677990.17199595012Dec-9512-0.98985065010.26736842110.09836677990.23199696012Dec-9612-0.37988862790.26736842110.09836677990.51199797012Dec-97122.46660080920.26736842110.09836677990.22199898012Dec-9812-0.48154896490.26736842110.09836677990.33199999012Dec-99120.63671474250.26736842110.09836677990.19200012Dec-0012-0.7865299760.26736842110.0983667799

Chart6

Sheet1Year20002001200220032004200520062007Private Sector1250110012001000850990980990Government10001000100010001100130013001350Wheat pricesYear20002001200220032004200520062007Private Sector12501300130013301700180020002200Government10001350135014001600152016001800Year2004200520062007Consumption7000000730000079000008400000Production3210000309000031000003400000

Sheet2

Sheet3