31
중국 정치•경제의 변화와 안정성 전망 이동률·서봉교 동덕여자대학교 20124EAI 국가안보패널 보고서 : 2010년대 한국외교 10과제

중국 정치•경제의 변화와 안정성 전망 · 차 5개년 경제발전규획’의 키워드 역시 민생 이었던 것으로 봐서 기본적으로 5세대 엘리트 역시

  • Upload
    others

  • View
    1

  • Download
    0

Embed Size (px)

Citation preview

  • 2012 4

    EAI : 2010 10

  • (The East Asia Institute: EAI) 2002 5 .

    EAI

    .

    EAI .

    EAI EAI .

    .

    2012 EAI

    EAI

    .

    . .

    EAI .

    EAI .

    4 158, 909 ( 4, )

    Tel. 02 2277 1683 Fax 02 2277 1684

  • EAI NSP Report 54 2010 10

    1

    I. 100 2020 . 30 . 2012 5 . , , , , .

    2011 3 11 () 4 12.5 () . 10 3 .

    , 2012 2013 5 ? 5 ?

    , 10 , ? 30 .

    , 12.5 30 , , ?

    . . . . 5

    ,

    ,

  • EAI NSP Report 54 2010 10

    2

    . .

    II. 5 1. 5

    () , () () , 5 . . 9 . 16 7 9 , 17 9 .

    () 2012 18 2013 12 . 2002 . 2007 10 17 () 9 2008 11 . 2010 10 17 5 5 .

    17 . 1 , 2 . , . 5 2 . 2 .

    5 2 . (collective leadership) . 9 , .

    (Li Cheng) () (The Elitist) () (The Populists) (Li 2010). . .

  • EAI NSP Report 54 2010 10

    3

    9 .

    . . . .

    . , , ( 2007). , , . . , . , .

    2012 - . 10 . . , 12 5 5 . . 2. 5

    . () . ( 2007, 32-41). () .

    . . 5

  • EAI NSP Report 54 2010 10

    4

    .

    5 10 , 20 70 , , . 2007(17) 1. 4 2. 5 .

    , 1989 . . . .

    5 10 . . , , . .

    . 5 , (), () 4 . 2012 , , 5 .

    10 , 13 5 . , . .

    17 5 12 5 5 4 . 4 4 5 .

    . . , , . , , . . ,

  • EAI NSP Report 54 2010 10

    5

    . . .

    . . 3. .

    17 5 12 5 () () . , . 5 .

    . . , .

    5 . . .

    , . . , . .

    5 , . . 5 .

  • EAI NSP Report 54 2010 10

    6

    III. 1.

    . . () . 2005 , 2007 , 2008 4, 17 (2007) . , (), () , , , . , , .

    . 2011 3 11 4 () . 2010 8 . . , , , , . , . ( 2011). , , , , . ( 2011).

    . . , .

    . 78 15.5 ( 2011/3/15). . , , ( 2008; 2007; 2009). ( 2011).

  • EAI NSP Report 54 2010 10

    7

    . () 3 2040 ( 2007, 45-50).

    10 , . , , () ( 2011, 19-22). , .

    , , . . .

    , . , . . 2.

    . , , , . (performance-based legitimacy) . . . () . 5 . 30 .

    . , 1 (Gross Domestic Product: GDP) 5 , 8 . . .

  • EAI NSP Report 54 2010 10

    8

    . . . .

    . . . 2001 38 2020 58 , 50 30 ( 2003, 1-9). . 1965 100, 6,000 . 2007 () 21 2 , 5 . .

    . . 1989 5. . ( 2011, 105-106).

    18 [1] ( 2011/08/17). 10 10 10 . . , , . () . . 10 .

    [ 1]

  • EAI NSP Report 54 2010 10

    9

    . 2011 9 () . 4 . 5 () , . . . . . 2011 5 . , .

    . , . . . . . (shock therapy) . . , , .

    . . , , , .

    30 , . . G2 . .

    , 1997 , 2008 . , . .

  • EAI NSP Report 54 2010 10

    10

    . . 44.7 (23) ( 2011). 60.7 . , . . , . 3.

    . 10 . , . . 30 . (red capitalists) , . (entrepreneurial state) .

    . , . (fragile stability) . , , , , .

    . , . .

  • EAI NSP Report 54 2010 10

    11

    IV. . 30 10 . 2010 GDP 2 , 2009 1 . 2006 1 3 . 1 . 1 6.

    . . . .

    . , , . 1.

    30 . . , . () ( 2001). , , , ( 2011). .

    . , .

    . (Edward S. Steinfeld)

  • EAI NSP Report 54 2010 10

    12

    . . () ( 2011). ( 2010). () . ( 2011). .

    . . . 1 90 . 10 . .

    . 1990 (Steinfeld 2011). 80 90 . (1994) , 7. , .

    (Foreign Direct Investment: FDI) 8. , , . . , . 90 , 2000 20 . 70 10 60 .

  • EAI NSP Report 54 2010 10

    13

    [ 1]

    (: )

    2000 8.4 65.1 22.4 12.5

    2002 9.1 43.9 48.5 7.6

    2004 10.1 39.5 54.5 6.0

    2005 10.4 37.9 39.0 23.1

    2006 12.7 40.0 43.9 16.1

    2007 14.2 39.2 42.7 18.1

    2008 9.6 43.5 47.5 9.0

    2009 9.2 45.4 95.2 -40.6

    2010 10.3 36.8 54.0 9.2

    :

    2008 . . 2009 -40.6 9.

    . 90 . , . , . .

    . 2000 , 2005 . 2009 10.

    ? .

  • EAI NSP Report 54 2010 10

    14

    2.

    . .

    . 125(2011~2015) . 125 . [ 2] 12-5

    11-5 (06~10) 12-5

    1 GDP 2 20 , , ,

    : , ,

    ,

    11-5 ( ) :

    ()

    , , , , ( )

    ,

    : KIEP , 12 5

    . 12-5 5 10 1 .

    . () , . . 2009 95.2 , 2010 54 . , 11. 2000 40

  • EAI NSP Report 54 2010 10

    15

    . GDP , .

    [ 3] GDP , (2009)

    (: , )

    GDP 4985 833 5067 3330 14119

    1762 35.4 453 54.3 3020 59.6 1962 58.9 10001 70.8

    220 4.4 33 3.9 14 0.3 156 4.7 -386 -2.7

    2010 40.3 244 29.3 1046 20.6 596 17.9 2220 15.7

    : Global Insight, SERI 330

    . ?

    3.

    . 12 , .

    . , . GDP 90 50 2000 40 . ( 2011). , . 2000 , , , , . , . , . , . 13 , .

    ? , .

  • EAI NSP Report 54 2010 10

    16

    . , . 20 . . . . .

    [ 4] 2011

    (: , )

    960 1160

    (20.8) 1120 1280

    (14.3)960 1140

    (18.8)1030 1300

    (26.2)920 1100

    (19.6)

    : (2011.7.14)

    , ,

    , 14. 15. . , .

    , . 2005 , , . . . . . 1 . 16 . , .

    , 2006 . 2000 . 2008

  • EAI NSP Report 54 2010 10

    17

    . 10 , . . .

    , 12-5 . . , , , () 17. 18. . , . . . .

    , . . .

    V.

    . . , , . 19.

  • EAI NSP Report 54 2010 10

    18

    1.

    , . 2011 4 5 7 8 6 . 8 6.5 6.2 . , . , . , . 2000 . 0 . [ 2]

    :

    ? .

    20 . 2009 33, 2010 20 . (M2) 28 19 . . . . 2011 11 5.5 .

    , , . ,

  • EAI NSP Report 54 2010 10

    19

    . . . . .

    2.

    . , . . 2008 2010 21. . .

    . . , , .

    , . , .

    3.

    , , . . 2000 .

    . . (Victor Shih) 8,000 2011 GDP 96 ( 2011).

  • EAI NSP Report 54 2010 10

    20

    .

    4.

    . . , . . .

    . , . , .

    5.

    . .

    , . .

    . . 2000 . , . .

  • EAI NSP Report 54 2010 10

    21

    , 3 . .

    , , , .

    , . . .

    . : , , 10 . . . , 10 .

    10 . 10 . . , . .

    , 21 . , , 5 . , .

  • EAI NSP Report 54 2010 10

    22

    . . . . .

    . . 2000 9 20 . , .

    . . . .

    . . . . (Free Trade Agreement: FTA) , . . FTA .

    ()

    1 . 2 . 14 10(50) 17 19(76) .

  • EAI NSP Report 54 2010 10

    23

    2 5 ( ), ( ),

    ( ), ( ) 4 . 3 10(1999-2009) () 10 10(2009-2019) ()

    10 . 30 10 , , , ( 2010).

    4 ( 2005, 2007, 2008). 5 1989 , 1991 ,

    . 1989 80 . 89 . 1998 , 2008 12 08 .

    6 (The Economist) GDP 2030

    10 , 2019 ( 2011). 7 5.76 8.62

    , 10 8 .

    8 90 100~200 2010 1000 . 9 2009 16.0 . 10 2010 9

    , . 2011 10 . .

    11

    . 4 , , , 82 .

  • EAI NSP Report 54 2010 10

    24

    12

    ( 2011). 13 80 0.2 2011

    0.5 . 14 ,

    . 15

    . 16 GDP 3,

    10 . .

    17

    . ( 2011).

    18 .

    . . . (, ) . ( 2011).

    19

    , . . 12 5 (2011~2015) ( 2011).

    20 2011

    , . .

    21 2008 1 250 , 2010 1 280

    ( 2011).

  • EAI NSP Report 54 2010 10

    25

    . 2011. . : . 2011. . . , 105-106. :

    . . 2011. . : 2011. (). . 2011. . : (). . 2001. . : . , . . 2011. . : . . 2011. . . . :

    . . 2011. . KDI Working Paper . 2010. 5 . : . . 2009. 21 . : . . 2011. 114 (): , , . 6, 2:

    19-22. . 2011. . (CSF). 9 8.

    http://csf.kiep.go.kr (). . 2011. . : . 2011. ? CSF. 105. http://csf.kiep.go.kr . 2011. Boom vs Doom.

    (http://blog.joinsmsn.com/media/folderlistslide.asp?uid=woodyhan&folder=1&list_id=12201766)

    (). . 2011. 2020 . : 21. . 2011. 18 . 8 17.

    (http://news.chosun.com/site/data/html_dir/2011/08/17/2011081700123.html) Li, Cheng. 2010. Chinas Midterm Jockeying: Gearing Up for 2012((Part 1-3). China Leadership

    Monitor No. 31(February 15) . 2003. . 41~9.

    . 2005. . 10. http://www.gov.cn/zwgk/

    2005-10/19/content_79539.htm.

    . 2007.. .

    . 2007. : . .

    . 2007. . ,

    32-41.

  • EAI NSP Report 54 2010 10

    26

    . 2007. . 11. http://www.gov.cn/zwgk/2007

    -11/15/content_806278.htm;

    . 2007. : .1024.

    http://news.xinhuanet.com/newscenter/2007-10/24/content_6931498.htm

    . 2008. . .

    . 2008. .10. http://www.gov.cn/zwgk/2008-

    02/28/content_904648.htm;

    . 2010. 10 10. 8 28. http://observe.

    chinaiiss.com/html/20108/28/a29ca5.html

    .2011. 315.

    . 2011. . 314.

    http://2011lianghui.people.com.cn/GB/214392/14137332.html

    . 2011. 2011310

    . 310.

    http://www.npc.gov.cn/wxzl/gongbao/2011-07/08/content_1665568.htm

  • EAI NSP Report 54 2010 10

    27

    . 1996 . . , , . Chinas policy and influence on the North Korea nuclear issue: denuclearization and/or stabiliza-tion of the Korean peninsula? (), (), (), : . (, ). . ( ), LG ( ) .

  • EAI NSP Report 54 2010 10

    28

    (EAI) (MacArthur Foundation) (Asia Security Initiative) 20091 (: ) .

    ,

    . .

    [EAI ]

    .

    . Tel. 02 2277 1683 ( 107) [email protected] Tel. 02 2277 1683 ( 108) [email protected]

  • 100-786 158, 909 (4, )