12
FEBRUARY 27, 2011 Economy News 4 Green clearance to coal blocks allocated to ultra-mega power projects of companies such as Reliance Power, Essar and Adani are likely to be taken up by the ministerial panel on March 1. (BL) 4 As per, National Association of Realtors existing home sales increased 4.3 percent to an annual rate of 4.57 million units in January, the fastest pace since May 2010, pushing the supply of properties on the market to the lowest level in almost seven years in a hopeful sign for the housing sector. (BS) 4 The Tamil Nadu Electricity Board (TNEB) has announced a power holiday to all industries with effect from March 1, and also announced 40 percent power cut to all industrial and commercial consumers. (BS) 4 The government is likely to revert to the policy of using 25% of the disinvestment proceeds for reviving sick PSUs and recapitalizing the profitable ones from the next fiscal. (BS) 4 G 20 is working towards a second global rescue package worth nearly $2 trillion to stop the euro-zone sovereign debt crisis from spreading and putting at risk the tentative recovery. (Mint) Corporate News 4 State Bank of India (SBI) has announced waiver of service charge for non-maintenance of minimum balance stipulations with respect to savings accounts. (BL) 4 NTPC is looking at an investment of Rs 240 bn for constructing a 4,000- Mw thermal power plant in Andhra Pradesh. (BS) 4 Pantaloon Retail is looking to scale back its expansion plans in the next financial year if weak consumer demand persists in the coming quarters. (BS) 4 Glenmark Pharmaceuticals had issued a voluntary nationwide recall in the US for seven lots of its oral contraceptive Norgestimate and Ethinyl Estradiol tablets due to a packaging error. (BS) 4 State Bank of India (SBI) has taken in-principle decision to slash interest on education loans by up to 1 percentage point. (BS) 4 Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) is spending Rs 260 bn to develop 10 oil and gas clusters in western and eastern offshore, to increase crude production by up to 4 million tonne per annum by 2013- 14.(BS) 4 NMDC is expecting to get mining license in some of the blocks in Karnataka after the Central Empowered Committee (CEC) recommends resumption of operations on some of the mining leases in the state. (BS) 4 Gati is in talks with German ship-management company Bernhard Schulte to sell a strategic stake in its loss-making shipping business to raise cash to tide over the financial crisis.(ET) 4 Hero MotoCorp will buy a minority stake in US motorcycle firm Erik Buell Racing (EBR) for an undisclosed amount. (ET) 4 The government is likely to auction 5% of its stake in Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) this week to raise around Rs120 bn from the stake sale. (ET) Equity % Chg 24 Feb 12 1 Day 1 Mth 3 Mths Indian Indices SENSEX Index 17,924 (0.9) 4.0 14.2 NIFTY Index 5,429 (1.0) 4.3 15.3 BANKEX Index 12,068 (2.0) 7.0 23.5 BSET Index 6,309 0.5 10.3 16.8 BSETCG INDEX 10,561 (3.0) 1.9 10.8 BSEOIL INDEX 8,653 (1.7) 1.3 9.5 CNXMcap Index 7,588 (0.8) 7.0 15.0 BSESMCAP INDEX 6,857 (0.7) 5.6 13.4 World Indices Dow Jones 12,983 (0.0) 2.5 15.6 Nasdaq 2,964 0.2 5.2 21.4 FTSE 5,935 (0.0) 3.5 14.9 NIKKEI 9,647 0.5 9.8 18.9 HANGSENG 21,407 0.1 4.8 21.5 Value traded (Rs cr) 24 Feb 12 % Chg - Day Cash BSE 2,818 (10.8) Cash NSE 23,570 28.7 Derivatives 86,945 (66.4) Net inflows (Rs cr) 23 Feb 12 % Chg MTD YTD FII 377 (61.0) 16,655 27,745 Mutual Fund (242) (63.3) (2,584) (4,431) FII open interest (Rs cr) 23 Feb 12 % Chg FII Index Futures 13,396 5.6 FII Index Options 35,490 4.5 FII Stock Futures 26,575 0.6 FII Stock Options 758 187.1 Advances / Declines (BSE) 24 Feb 12 A B T Total % total Advances 76 723 285 1,084 36 Declines 128 1,288 402 1,818 60 Unchanged 1 85 37 123 4 Commodity % Chg 24 Feb 12 1 Day 1 Mth 3 Mths Crude (NYMEX) (US$/BBL) 109.5 (0.2) 10.0 13.2 Gold (US$/OZ) 1,774.2 (0.7) 2.6 5.8 Silver (US$/OZ) 35.3 (0.5) 5.1 14.5 Debt / forex market 24 Feb 12 1 Day 1 Mth 3 Mths 10 yr G-Sec yield % 8.23 8.20 8.32 8.83 Re/US$ 49.0 49.2 50.1 52.1 Sensex Source: ET = Economic Times, BS = Business Standard, FE = Financial Express, BL = Business Line, ToI: Times of India, BSE = Bombay Stock Exchange 15,000 16,600 18,200 19,800 21,400 Feb-11 May-11 Aug-11 Nov-11 Feb-12

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Page 1: D:VelsDaily Morning Brief 2FebMorning Insight 27 Feb 2012smartinvestor.business-standard.com/BSCMS/PDF/abb_270212.pdf · 23 Feb 12 % Chg FII Index Futures 13,396 5.6 FII Index Options

FEBRUARY 27, 2011

Economy News4 Green clearance to coal blocks allocated to ultra-mega power projects of

companies such as Reliance Power, Essar and Adani are likely to be takenup by the ministerial panel on March 1. (BL)

4 As per, National Association of Realtors existing home sales increased 4.3percent to an annual rate of 4.57 million units in January, the fastest pacesince May 2010, pushing the supply of properties on the market to thelowest level in almost seven years in a hopeful sign for the housing sector.(BS)

4 The Tamil Nadu Electricity Board (TNEB) has announced a power holidayto all industries with effect from March 1, and also announced 40 percentpower cut to all industrial and commercial consumers. (BS)

4 The government is likely to revert to the policy of using 25% of thedisinvestment proceeds for reviving sick PSUs and recapitalizing theprofitable ones from the next fiscal. (BS)

4 G 20 is working towards a second global rescue package worth nearly $2trillion to stop the euro-zone sovereign debt crisis from spreading andputting at risk the tentative recovery. (Mint)

Corporate News4 State Bank of India (SBI) has announced waiver of service charge for

non-maintenance of minimum balance stipulations with respect to savingsaccounts. (BL)

4 NTPC is looking at an investment of Rs 240 bn for constructing a 4,000-Mw thermal power plant in Andhra Pradesh. (BS)

4 Pantaloon Retail is looking to scale back its expansion plans in the nextfinancial year if weak consumer demand persists in the coming quarters.(BS)

4 Glenmark Pharmaceuticals had issued a voluntary nationwide recall inthe US for seven lots of its oral contraceptive Norgestimate and EthinylEstradiol tablets due to a packaging error. (BS)

4 State Bank of India (SBI) has taken in-principle decision to slash intereston education loans by up to 1 percentage point. (BS)

4 Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) is spending Rs 260 bn todevelop 10 oil and gas clusters in western and eastern offshore, toincrease crude production by up to 4 million tonne per annum by 2013-14.(BS)

4 NMDC is expecting to get mining license in some of the blocks inKarnataka after the Central Empowered Committee (CEC) recommendsresumption of operations on some of the mining leases in the state. (BS)

4 Gati is in talks with German ship-management company Bernhard Schulteto sell a strategic stake in its loss-making shipping business to raise cash totide over the financial crisis.(ET)

4 Hero MotoCorp will buy a minority stake in US motorcycle firm Erik BuellRacing (EBR) for an undisclosed amount. (ET)

4 The government is likely to auction 5% of its stake in Oil and NaturalGas Corporation (ONGC) this week to raise around Rs120 bn from thestake sale. (ET)

Equity% Chg

24 Feb 12 1 Day 1 Mth 3 Mths

Indian IndicesSENSEX Index 17,924 (0.9) 4.0 14.2

NIFTY Index 5,429 (1.0) 4.3 15.3BANKEX Index 12,068 (2.0) 7.0 23.5BSET Index 6,309 0.5 10.3 16.8

BSETCG INDEX 10,561 (3.0) 1.9 10.8BSEOIL INDEX 8,653 (1.7) 1.3 9.5CNXMcap Index 7,588 (0.8) 7.0 15.0

BSESMCAP INDEX 6,857 (0.7) 5.6 13.4

World IndicesDow Jones 12,983 (0.0) 2.5 15.6

Nasdaq 2,964 0.2 5.2 21.4FTSE 5,935 (0.0) 3.5 14.9NIKKEI 9,647 0.5 9.8 18.9

HANGSENG 21,407 0.1 4.8 21.5

Value traded (Rs cr)24 Feb 12 % Chg - Day

Cash BSE 2,818 (10.8)

Cash NSE 23,570 28.7Derivatives 86,945 (66.4)

Net inflows (Rs cr)23 Feb 12 % Chg MTD YTD

FII 377 (61.0) 16,655 27,745Mutual Fund (242) (63.3) (2,584) (4,431)

FII open interest (Rs cr)23 Feb 12 % Chg

FII Index Futures 13,396 5.6FII Index Options 35,490 4.5

FII Stock Futures 26,575 0.6FII Stock Options 758 187.1

Advances / Declines (BSE)24 Feb 12 A B T Total % total

Advances 76 723 285 1,084 36Declines 128 1,288 402 1,818 60

Unchanged 1 85 37 123 4

Commodity % Chg

24 Feb 12 1 Day 1 Mth 3 Mths

Crude (NYMEX) (US$/BBL) 109.5 (0.2) 10.0 13.2

Gold (US$/OZ) 1,774.2 (0.7) 2.6 5.8Silver (US$/OZ) 35.3 (0.5) 5.1 14.5

Debt / forex market24 Feb 12 1 Day 1 Mth 3 Mths

10 yr G-Sec yield % 8.23 8.20 8.32 8.83Re/US$ 49.0 49.2 50.1 52.1

Sensex

Source: ET = Economic Times, BS = Business Standard, FE = Financial Express,BL = Business Line, ToI: Times of India, BSE = Bombay Stock Exchange

15,000

16,600

18,200

19,800

21,400

Feb-11 May-11 Aug-11 Nov-11 Feb-12

Page 2: D:VelsDaily Morning Brief 2FebMorning Insight 27 Feb 2012smartinvestor.business-standard.com/BSCMS/PDF/abb_270212.pdf · 23 Feb 12 % Chg FII Index Futures 13,396 5.6 FII Index Options

Kotak Securities - Private Client Research Please see the disclaimer on the last page For Private Circulation 2

MORNING INSIGHT February 27, 2012

ABB LTD

PRICE: RS.828 RECOMMENDATION: REDUCETARGET PRICE: RS.670 CY12E P/E: 31.7X

q ABB reported a muted revenue growth of 6% yoy in the fourth quarter ofCY11 partly due to sluggish execution of long-cycle orders.

q The profitability has been bearing the brunt of exit-costs related to therural electrification business and execution of few strategic but low mar-gin orders.

q The T&D equipment industry continues to reel under cost pressures, ag-gressively price imports, domestic oversupply in transformer capacityand slackening investment in power generation and core sector. A silverlining has been that PGCIL ordering remains robust.

q The company enjoys significant premium compared to its domesticpeers. We value the stock at 26x CY12 earnings to arrive at a target priceof Rs 670 (unchanged). In view of the downside to the target price, wemaintain REDUCE.

Quarterly performance

(Rs mn) Q4CY11 Q4CY10 YoY (%)

Net Sales 21,693 20,506 6

Other operating income 302 214 41

Raw material costs 15,356 15,963 (4)

Purchase of traded goods 997 782 28

Personnel expenses 1,547 1,259 23

Other expenditure 3,019 2,014 50

Exchange loss/(gain) - 375 (100)

Operating expenses 20,918 20,393 3

Operating profit 1,078 327 230

Other income 14 26 (48)

Depreciation 124 148 (16)

EBIT 967 204 373

Interest 129 48 167

PBT 837 156 437

Tax 199 88 126

PAT reported 638 68 840

Ratios

EPS (Rs) 3.0 0.3

EBITDA (%) 5.0 1.6

Raw Material costs to sales (%) 75.4 81.7

Staff costs to sales (%) 7.1 6.1

Other exp to sales (%) 13.9 9.8

Tax rate (%) 23.8 56.5

Source: Company

Summary table

(Rs mn) CY10 CY11 CY12E

Sales 62,871 74,490 92,133

Growth (%) 0.8 18.5 23.7EBITDA 838 3,865 9,353EBITDA margin (%) 1.3 5.2 10.2

PBT 1,002 2,676 8,388Net profit 632 2,094 5,536EPS (Rs) 3.0 9.9 26.1

Growth (%) -82.1 231.2 164.4CEPS (Rs) 7.2 14.4 33.2BV (Rs/share) 114.4 120.7 144.5

Dividend / share (Rs) 2.0 2.0 2.0ROE (%) 2.6 7.4 19.7ROCE (%) 1.3 12.1 27.6

Net cash (debt) 5,851 2,644 7,588NW Capital (Days) 57.6 46.0 56.7EV/Sales (x) 2.7 2.3 1.8

EV/EBITDA (x) 202.5 44.1 17.9P/E (x) 277.5 83.8 31.7P/Cash Earnings 115.4 57.6 24.9

P/BV (x) 7.2 6.9 5.7

Source: Company, Kotak Securities - PrivateClient Research

RESULT UPDATE

Sanjeev [email protected]+91 22 6621 6305

Page 3: D:VelsDaily Morning Brief 2FebMorning Insight 27 Feb 2012smartinvestor.business-standard.com/BSCMS/PDF/abb_270212.pdf · 23 Feb 12 % Chg FII Index Futures 13,396 5.6 FII Index Options

Kotak Securities - Private Client Research Please see the disclaimer on the last page For Private Circulation 3

MORNING INSIGHT February 27, 2012

Disappointing numbers as profitability remains depressedn ABB reported a muted growth of 6% yoy in the fourth quarter of CY11. Power

products and Power systems emerged as the prime revenue drivers. Process au-tomation segment reported a decline of 7% yoy. The muted growth in overallrevenues was partly due to sluggish execution of long-cycle orders.

n Revenue growth was partly aided by merger of acquired businesses from ABBGroup, Zurich viz., ABB Global Industries and Services Limited (ABBGISL). Thebusinesses, which have been merged are (a) Transformer Insulation - Boards andComponents, (b) LV Breakers & Switches and (c) Vacuum Interrupters.

Segment revenues

(Rs mn) Q4CY11 Q4CY10 YoY (%)

Power Products 5,952 5,404 10.1

Power Systems 7,314 6,349 15.2

Discrete automation products 5,271 4,875 8.1

Process Automation 4,255 4,582 -7.1

LV products 1,449 1,440 0.7

Total 24,242 22,649 7.0

Source: Company

Margins continue to be depressed aided by pricing pressure, costinflation and legacy orders.n For the quarter, EBITDA margins rose by 340 bps aided by productivity improve-

ments coupled with reduction in rural electrification orders.

n For the CY11, EBITDA margins stood at 5.2% up from 1.3% in CY10 but wellbelow the pre-CY09 levels of 11% plus. Thus, there is immense upside for mar-gins to improve in the future.

n The subdued margins are partly due to execution of some long-cycle projectswhich were taken on low margins due to unfavourable market conditions.

n Apart from this, pricing in the products segment (power products and LV prod-ucts) remains low, which have kept profitability under pressure.

n Segment-wise, it was a mixed picture for the quarter so far as EBIT margins areconcerned. However, the power systems margins continued to remain depressedfor the third consecutive year. The power systems division executes long-cycleorders including E-BOP, Sub-station and transmission line systems. The profitabil-ity of this segment has been bearing the brunt of exit-costs related to the ruralelectrification business and execution of few strategic but low margin orders.

n Rural electrification projects have been a major pressure point for the companywhich has impacted its profitability in the past two years. The company haspulled out of the rural electrification market and has stopped taking new orderssince quite some time.

n Going ahead, the thrust areas will be higher indigenization of its products andmodernization of operations. Access to parent's global supply chain is also ex-pected to mitigate impact of material cost inflation.

Segment Margins

(%) Q4CY11 Q4CY10

Power Products 6.7 -7.1

Power Systems -0.2 3.2

Discrete Automation and motion 14.8 5.6

Process Automation -1.3 7.5

LV products 5.7 -0.8

Source: Company

Page 4: D:VelsDaily Morning Brief 2FebMorning Insight 27 Feb 2012smartinvestor.business-standard.com/BSCMS/PDF/abb_270212.pdf · 23 Feb 12 % Chg FII Index Futures 13,396 5.6 FII Index Options

Kotak Securities - Private Client Research Please see the disclaimer on the last page For Private Circulation 4

MORNING INSIGHT February 27, 2012

Adjusted for HVDC order, base orders intake has remainedlacklustren During the quarter, order booking at Rs 22 bn was up 59% but down 11% on a

yoy and qoq basis respectively. Order backlog is up 8.2% yoy to Rs 91.2 bn, thusyielding a revenue visibility of 15 months of trailing four quarters revenues.

n Order intake for the quarter has been driven by two large orders 1) HVDC orderfrom PGCIL worth Rs 5.0 bn 2) System strengthening order from PGCIL worth Rs1.75 bn. Order intake adjusted for the HVDC order stands at Rs 17 bn, up 23%yoy.

n Order intake for the full year CY11 stood at Rs 81.8 bn up 29% over CY10(CY10 had a low base). However, yearly order intake is flat compared to thepeak years of CY07-09.

n The competitive scenario remains tough aided by increasing trend by large cus-tomers to buy on an EPC basis (as against equipment sourcing), which has re-sulted in higher competition due to entry of new players.

Acquisition of Baldor Electric to strengthen its offerings in auto-mation and drivesDuring the year, ABB Ltd has approved a proposal of acquisition of 100% shares ofBaldor Electric India Private Limited, Pune (Baldor), from Baldor Holdings Inc., USAand Baldor Electric Switzerland AG, Switzerland, for a total consideration of Rs. 357mn. ABB Group acquired Baldor Electric Company, USA, during January 2011.Baldor Group is now integral part of ABB Group. Baldor provides sales and serviceassistance to its customers including support for the products viz., electric motors,power transmission products, drives, generators and other accessory products

Valuation and Target Price: Maintain Reducen Valuations are extremely rich. The stock has tended to peak at above 30x one

year forward earnings in the previous three corrections. The average forward PEfor the stock has been at 26x.

n In view of earnings revision, we value the stock at 26x CY12 earnings, thus arriv-ing at a price target of Rs 670 (unchanged). In view of the downside to targetprice, we maintain REDUCE on the stock.

We recommend REDUCE onABB with a price target of

Rs.670

Page 5: D:VelsDaily Morning Brief 2FebMorning Insight 27 Feb 2012smartinvestor.business-standard.com/BSCMS/PDF/abb_270212.pdf · 23 Feb 12 % Chg FII Index Futures 13,396 5.6 FII Index Options

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MORNING INSIGHT February 27, 2012

SESA GOA

PRICE: RS.227 RECOMMENDATION: REDUCETARGET PRICE: RS.197 FY13E P/E 5.8X; EV/EBITDA 8.3X

Proposed Transaction - Sterlite Industries (India) Ltd (together with itssubsidiaries), Sesa Goa Ltd (together with its subsidiaries) and VedantaResources Plc (together with its subsidiaries) have on 25 Feb 2012announced a recommended merger of Sterlite into Sesa Goa to form SesaSterlite.

Our take on the proposed Sesa Sterlite Transactionn No reasonable operational synergies are visible to us.

n Mostly financial and taxation (from accumulated losses and unabsorbeddeprecication of $1.2 bn for VAL) synergies are probable. Even that might belimited to large extent given the cash cows for the Vedanta Group, Hind Zincand Cairn India, would continue to operate as separate listed subsidiaries. Sotheir cash flows would not be clubbed with parent company in such an efficientmanner that it lends considerable saving in financing and tax synergies. Cashflows from these subsidiaries can flow into to proposed Sesa Sterlite, either bydividends which would attract considerable dividend distribution tax or by Intra-group cash transfers which might invite scrutiny and probable backlash from theminority shareholders of publicly listed entities Hind Zinc and Cairn India.

n The transaction will result in merging the considerably high and consistent cashburning VAL (Vedanta Aluminium Limited), with good cash generating entities tomeet VAL's ongoing funding requirements. Also to be noted is that Sterlite hadICDs of ~INR 95bn in VAL, on which now interest was getting accrued. With thistransaction, the INR 95bn of ICD would be foregone. Also, the 100% share inthe zero EBIDA earnings and huge losses at PAT level of VAL will come into themerged entity and would hurt consolidated earnings of Sesa Sterlite. The pro-posed big deal would hide to a large extent, the transfer of VAL and the relatedgroup cash transfers.

n Sesa Sterlite deal might be a misguided focus at a very inappropriate time as webelieve that the Sterlite/Vedanta Resources board focus at this point should havebeen to acquire Indian government stakes in Hind Zinc and Balco before the endof FY12 i.e. by 31 Mar 2012. It is widely known that Indian government is con-siderably off target from its FY12 divestment program. So, this might have beenbest opportunity to get the stake buyout deal closed before end of FY12, whichhas been biting dust for several years on want of lack of agreement betweentwo parties on valuation.

n We believe government stake buyouts in Hind Zinc and Balco would offermultifold higher operational and financial synergies than the present proposedtransaction of Sesa Sterlite. So if Sterlite fails to buyout government stakes inHind Zinc and Balco within next 35 remaining days of FY12, we would attributeboard focus on the proposed corporate restructuring as the primary reason forfailure and would classify it as a lost opportunity for all its stakeholders.

n One of the probable benefits of the deal can be that Cairn India finances can beconsolidated with the parent Sesa Sterlite (as it would own >51% stake) for ac-counting purpose and Cairn India contribution would boost Sesa Sterlite EBITDAand that may attract better street valuation as popularly followed holding com-pany discount based on SOTP valuation would no longer be required. As per ourcalculation, ~6% of the Cairn India actual market cap or its fair value estimatecould be quantified as the valuation gain from the proposed deal. However, ourcalculation also indicates that Sesa Goa would be paying ~11% premium to ac-quire Cairn India from Vedanta Resources over its acquisition price for 20.1%stake in Cairn India which nullifies the earlier stated gain to large extent.

Unrevised Summary TableConsolidated for Sesa Goa

(Rs mn) FY11 FY12E FY13E

Sales (Rs. mn) 91455 76580 77443

Growth (%) 57.6 -16.3 1.1EBITDA (Rs. mn) 52063 34820 26113EBITDA Margins (%) 56.6 45.1 33.5

PBT 55597 31116 21582Net Profit (Rs. mn) 42225 27404 34553EPS (Rs.) 48.6 30.8 38.8

Growth (%) 54.0 -37.0 26.0CEPS (Rs.) 49.4 31.6 39.8BV (Rs./share) 147.4 170.7 205.5

Dividend per share (Rs.)3.5 3.5 3.5ROE (%) 40.7 19.6 20.6ROCE (%) 30.6 13.9 14.2

Net Cash (debt) 86974 -36430 -14055NW Capital (Days) 101 91 89EV/Sales (x) 1.2 3.1 2.8

EV/ EBITDA (x) 2.1 6.8 8.3P/E (x) 4.7 7.4 5.8P/B (x) 1.5 1.3 1.1

Source: Company, Kotak Securities - PrivateClient Research

COMPANY UPDATE

Saurabh [email protected]+91 22 6621 6309

Page 6: D:VelsDaily Morning Brief 2FebMorning Insight 27 Feb 2012smartinvestor.business-standard.com/BSCMS/PDF/abb_270212.pdf · 23 Feb 12 % Chg FII Index Futures 13,396 5.6 FII Index Options

Kotak Securities - Private Client Research Please see the disclaimer on the last page For Private Circulation 6

MORNING INSIGHT February 27, 2012

n Investors who had invested Sesa Goa or Sterlite as a play on certain commoditycycles would have to reconsider their investment rationale. The proposed SesaSterlite would be natural resources conglomerate, on the lines of global miningmajor BHP Billiton. So, we believe over time it would start attracting valuationbased on the methodology followed for BHP Billiton which might have its ownmerits and demerits but would be difficult to enumerate at this juncture.

n Getting the requisite listed 16 approvals from distinct entities is a very cumber-some and time consuming process and is guided to be concluded by end ofCY12 i.e. ~10 months. We have learnt from the past that there can be consider-able delays and bottlenecks from multiple and unanticipated forces which resultsin considerable disadvantage to short/medium term investors in the company.Value creation from such mergers is discounted by the markets with a delaywhile value destruction from such mergers is discounted in a short time framewhich is an investment risk for short term investors of Sesa Goa and Sterlite In-dustries.

n We would turn positive on the transaction if Sesa Sterlite is able to buyout Indiangovernment stake in BALCO and Hind Zinc.

n We remain negative on Sesa Goa and maintain our REDUCE recommendationwith unchanged PT of Rs.197. We would revisit our valuation in light of proposedtransaction and arrive at a new target price shortly.

Sesa Sterlite - Transaction highlightsn Merger of Sterlite into Sesa Goa to form Sesa Sterlite (proposed new name).

n Vedanta Aluminium Ltd (VAL) and The Madras Aluminium Company Ltd(MALCO) to be 100% consolidated (merged) into Sesa Sterlite

n Transfer of Vedanta's direct holding of 38.8% in Cairn India to Sesa Goa, to-gether with the associated debt of $5.9 billion, at $1. Post the transfer, SesaSterlite will have a 58.9% shareholding in Cairn India

n 3 Sesa Goa shares to be issued for every 5 existing Sterlite shares.

n No. of share outstanding for Sesa Sterlite would be 2965mn (vs 869mn for SesaGoa earlier).

n Proposed merger of Sterlite, VAL and MALCO with Sesa Goa is w.e.f. 1 April2011. While buyout of Vedanta Resources stake in Cairn India by Sesa Goa isw.e.f. from 25 Feb 2012.

n Sesa Sterlite will be listed in India, while American Depositary Shares (ADS) (is-sued in exchange of Sterlite existing ADS) would be listed on the New YorkStock Exchange (NYSE).

n Post consolidation Vedanta Resources Plc will own a 58.3% shareholding in SesaSterlite.

n Sesa Sterlite would be the principal operating company in the Vedanta groupand future inorganic growth both in India and abroad is expected to routedthrough it.

n In the 12 months to Dec 2011, Sesa Sterlite would have generated revenues ofINR 664.31bn ($14.2bn) and EBITDA of INR 249.53bn ($5.3bn), combined with astrong balance sheet with net debt of INR 369.36bn ($7.5bn).

n Based on the CY11 EBITDA, Sesa Sterlite would be world's seventh largest pub-licly listed global diversified natural resources major.

n Sesa Sterlite will have exposure to zinc-lead-silver, iron ore, oil & gas, copper,aluminium and commercial power.

n Increased diversification is expected to reduce volatility of earnings through com-modity cycles, lowering the cost of capital and enhancing value.

Page 7: D:VelsDaily Morning Brief 2FebMorning Insight 27 Feb 2012smartinvestor.business-standard.com/BSCMS/PDF/abb_270212.pdf · 23 Feb 12 % Chg FII Index Futures 13,396 5.6 FII Index Options

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MORNING INSIGHT February 27, 2012

Sesa Sterlite - Proposed corporate structure

Source: Company

n Management has indicated that synergies are expected to generate cost savingsof c.INR 10bn (c.$200mn) annually, primarily coming form financing synergies.

n The Boards, including the independent directors, of Vedanta, Sterlite, Sesa Goa,VAL and MALCO have approved the proposed consolidation.

n Valuation summary of the deal is (i) Sesa Goa / Sterlite exchange ratio of 0.60x(ii) VAL equity value (100%) of INR 23.32bn ($473mn) and MALCO equity valueof INR 17.90bn ($363mn)

n Independent valuers, Grant Thornton India LLP and KPMG India Private Limited,have provided to the Boards of Sesa Goa, Sterlite, MALCO and VAL their recom-mendation on the exchange ratios for consideration by the respective Boards.

n The Board of Sesa Goa has received opinions from Citigroup Global Markets In-dia Private Limited on fairness, from a financial point of view, to Sesa Goa.

n Sesa Goa, Sterlite, VAL, MALCO and SEL shareholder approvals requires >75%by value and >50% by number of those present and voting.

Sesa Sterlite - Pro Forma Financials and Capex Profile

Source: Company

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MORNING INSIGHT February 27, 2012

Transaction Timetable - Targeted completion by 31 Dec 2012

Source: Company

Sesa Goa Shareholder's Pro Forma Asset Ownership

Source: Company

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MORNING INSIGHT February 27, 2012

Sterlite Shareholder's Pro Forma Asset Ownership

Source: Company

Vedanta Resources Pro Forma Asset Ownership

Source: Company

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MORNING INSIGHT February 27, 2012

Valuation and ownership - overview

Source: Company

Detailed Pro Forma Financials

Source: Company

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Kotak Securities - Private Client Research Please see the disclaimer on the last page For Private Circulation 11

MORNING INSIGHT February 27, 2012

Trade details of bulk deals

Date Scrip name Name of client Buy/ Quantity Avg.Sell of shares price

(Rs)

24-Feb ACI Infocom Groove Finance And Investment B 56,450 70.3

24-Feb Aster Silicates Epoch Synthetics Pvt Ltd S 100,000 11.6

24-Feb BNR Udyog Mayura Rathi B 20,000 12.2

24-Feb BNR Udyog BNR Capital Services Pvt Ltd S 20,000 12.2

24-Feb Chisel Dipak Kanayalal Shah B 12,000 50.3

24-Feb Chisel Jagdish Ramniklal Sheth S 10,825 49.2

24-Feb Cubical Fin Vani Finvest (P) Ltd B 78,000 51.3

24-Feb Cubical Fin Vishal Equity Services Pvt Ltd B 75,000 51.3

24-Feb Cubical Fin Sara International Ltd B 140,000 52.3

24-Feb Cubical Fin Rashmi Bajaj S 100,700 51.3

24-Feb Emporis Aashish Developer B 315,100 56.2

24-Feb Emporis Shah Niraj Nagindas (HUF) S 100,000 56.2

24-Feb Gflfin Champadevi Inani B 50,000 34.0

24-Feb Gflfin Century Ply And Boards Pvt Ltd B 60,000 34.0

24-Feb Gflfin Jayshree Shankar Bhosle S 33,138 34.0

24-Feb India Home Parul Subhashbhai Patel B 150,000 39.2

24-Feb India Home Chetankumar Raojibhai Patel S 150,000 39.2

24-Feb Kanchan Intl Pankaj Jayantilal Dave B 24,795 87.9

24-Feb Kanchan Intl Dharmendra Harilal Bhojak B 40,000 87.8

24-Feb Kanchan Intl Mahendra Sagarmal Fagania S 33,000 87.8

24-Feb Kanchan Intl Fagania Surendra Moolchand S 32,500 87.9

24-Feb Krishna Deep Graceunited Real Estate Pvt Ltd B 55,000 42.5

24-Feb Krishna Deep Parkin Marketing Pvt Ltd S 30,000 42.2

24-Feb Krishna Deep Alosha Marketing Private Ltd S 30,000 42.4

24-Feb Krishna Deep Hotel Polo Towers Pvt Ltd S 50,000 42.2

24-Feb Krishna Deep Mamta Sunil Maheshwari S 16,650 43.6

24-Feb Maximaa Sys Mountain View Developers Pvt Ltd S 300,000 15.1

24-Feb Parichay Invest Dhiren Dharamdas Agrawal (Huf) B 12,800 39.0

24-Feb Parichay Invest Soni Nehaben Janakray B 9,146 38.4

24-Feb Parichay Invest Janakray Vithaldas Soni B 17,946 39.0

24-Feb Parichay Invest Jhaveri Sanjeev Burman S 11,000 38.0

24-Feb Parichay Invest Pushpa Bai S 24,446 38.9

24-Feb Parichay Invest Mohanlal S 23,470 39.0

24-Feb Pasupati Fin Pranav Narendra Bhatt S 28,000 35.9

24-Feb PFL Infotech Malti Securities B 50,000 39.4

24-Feb PFL Infotech Fotosoft Multimedia Pvt Ltd S 50,000 39.4

24-Feb Pioneer Embr-$ Ramnath Structurals Pvt. Ltd. B 80,000 12.0

24-Feb Pioneer Embr-$ Shashi Gupta S 80,000 12.0

24-Feb Rander Corp Victory Retail Marketing Pvt Ltd B 62,500 143.6

24-Feb Rander Corp Archana Ajay Mittal S 100,000 143.6

24-Feb Rander Corp P S Global Limited S 90,083 143.4

24-Feb Rander Corp Kabita Agarwal S 150,000 144.0

24-Feb Rander Corp Kumar Didwania Nitin S 200,000 143.8

24-Feb Technocraft Minal Bharat Patel B 472,618 31.1

24-Feb Technocraft Pat Financial Consultant Pvt Ltd S 472,939 31.1

24-Feb Transchem-$ Vigil Stocks And Shares Pvt Ltd B 483,706 15.9

24-Feb Transchem-$ Pegasus Stocks And Shares Pvt Ltd S 483,506 15.9

24-Feb Vaishnavi Octagon Management Solutions S 180,871 6.1

24-Feb Well Pack Papers Aman Tieup Pvt Ltd B 500,000 3.1

24-Feb Well Pack Papers Pyramid Sales Private Ltd S 500,000 3.1

Source: BSE

Bulk deals

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MORNING INSIGHT February 27, 2012

Gainers & Losers Nifty Gainers & LosersPrice (Rs) chg (%) Index points Volume (mn)

Gainers

Infosys 2,948 0.5 2.4 1.1

TCS 1,270 0.8 1.7 1.2

Sterlire Ind 119 3.1 1.6 35.5

Losers

Reliance Ind 820 (2.3) (10.9) 4.3

HDFC 676 (3.6) (10.9) 158.4

L&T 1,349 (3.6) (9.0) 2.4

Source: Bloomberg

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Fundamental Research TeamDipen ShahIT, [email protected]+91 22 6621 6301

Sanjeev ZarbadeCapital Goods, [email protected]+91 22 6621 6305

Teena VirmaniConstruction, Cement, Mid [email protected]+91 22 6621 6302

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Arun [email protected]+91 22 6621 6143

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Ritwik RaiFMCG, [email protected]+91 22 6621 6310

Sumit PokharnaOil and [email protected]+91 22 6621 6313

Amit AgarwalLogistics, [email protected]+91 22 6621 6222

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K. [email protected]+91 22 6621 6311

Technical Research Team

Shrikant [email protected]+91 22 6621 6360

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