DSA Alert March-2012

7/30/2019 DSA Alert March-2012

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editor-in-chief

India and Iran were neighbours until 1947, a fact that is just about forgotten today. Both were in regular culturaland trading relations long before the birth of Islam and the discovery of oil, the reasons commonly stated for thecloseness between the two civilisational states. In a very real sense Iran is Indias oldest trading partner, culturally

as well as economically. India of course has the worlds second largest Shia population, the majority belief in Iran. And

when it came to hard nosed realpolitik both cooperated closely during the dark days of Taliban rule in Afghanistan.In fact the former Northern Alliance survived its bleakest days only because of the support given by India, Iran andRussia. Even today there is considerable common ground between India and Iran over Afghanistan and how it shouldbe governed. That remains the worlds biggest security concern. Though some would like the world to believe that thebigger threat is Iran.

It does India no credit, from a historical, social and political sense, that even as some countries hurl themselves intoconict with Iran, there is nothing New Delhi is doing to bring level-headedness to an eminently avoidable situation.India enjoys good relations with all those on the other side of the fence with Iran and which is pretty much whatis happening in Tehran. There is a sense of siege creeping into the minds of the people, thus throwing a lifeline tothe extremely unpopular Ahmadinejad regime. By all logic of social and political aspirations of people for change,Iran should have led the way in sowing the seeds of a spring of its own. But the constant battling, over the airwaves

and motorway bombings, has pushed the people of Iran into the clutches of their unpopular president. He in turnperpetuates the throttlehold on patriotism et al. Perfect recipe for a disaster the world must avoid. The setting is, thus,tailor-made for an Indian role of mediation and reconciliation between Iran and the west led by Israel. India, however,has once decided to outsource its foreign policy to those driven by an agenda that is at odds with the regional andnational interests.

It is little wonder that India was selected by those who targeted the Israeli embassy vehicle in Delhi. And that too onone of the posh roads of the capital. There is a message in it, for all those willing to listen. But rst India must open itseyes and ears to events unfolding around it, rather than wait to wriggle out of a maelstrom in which it is certain to nditself. Perpetrators of the attack must be bought to justice, whether they are Iranians or otherwise. And then both sidesof the ever widening divide must be made to listen to the logic of good sense. An insular India is harmful to itself justas it is a disaster to the world. It has proven that over the Maldives coup and now it seems to be burying its head onceagain over Iran. It does so at its own peril.

manvendra singh

March 2012 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT 1


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publishers view

National Interest - First And Foremost

P

eople associated with the defence and security domaindirectly must be laughing after the announcementby our central government a few weeks back of the

creation of another establishment to counter terrorism. It isso painful to have to see the non-serious approach of ourgovernment on countering terrorism in real terms.

Copying the ideas of counter terrorism institutes in US andother European states has actually proved to be a nice fancyidea here in India. Whereas the reality is that the present

security apparatus is so weak that only few days back an Israeli diplomats car was blownaway by some terrorist group just a few meters away from the residence of our HonblePrime Minister. It is a matter of alarm for our government that if this attack can happenin such a secured area then what to say about any other common area which is not asheavily guarded as the area around the Prime Ministers residence over which, notlong ago, there was a heated debate about creating a no y zone to ensure that thereis no possibility of an attack from the air. While there is no gainsaying the possibilityof an airborne attack with toy-sized model aircraft and helicopters it is clear that muchmore needs to be done to secure the ground beneath our feet given that an attackercan make a clean getaway as happened after the blast in the Israeli embassy vehicle onAurangzeb Road. The inability of Indian security forces to intervene immediately atany of the crossroads leading out of the area is compounded by the inane claims andout-of-the-blue analysis of likely culprits leaked by police and intelligence agencies toshow that they are still relevant in the Indian security morass.

We have seen many attacks in the past years from the attack on Parliament, Mumbaicarnage and many more like in the premises of the Delhi High Court and to the lateston the diplomatic car in the most secured zone. And the worst is to learn that theIsraels secret service Mossad experts will be investigating this attack on their diplomatwhich is a matter of shame for all Indians. I dont know whether our governmentallows them for such investigations or not but this statement itself is more thanenough assault on our dignity. Government should not allow such investigations by

any foreign organisation for an attack that has occurred on our soil and should onlymake our own investigation agencies to do it and prove their abilities. But even afterso many attacks our government has not taken adequate measures in the followingaspects related to the security apparatus:

Strong surveillance Special training Procurement of latest arms and ammunition

That the present government is oating these new ideas of establishing newcounter-terrorism institutes is proving to be just fanciful and contentless and is justanother political show and nothing more. Till now nothing has actually started on therecently announced National Counter-Terrorism Centre even after the announcementmany months ago. It looks as if government is just trying to cover up by announcementsonly and is not actually committed to counter terrorism at all. And now manychief ministers are clamouring to compel the government to roll back or even rescindthe NCTC decision.

We at DSA suggest to the policy makers and decision makers responsible forsecurity to rst tighten the present security apparatus, provide special training topolice and security personnel and procure the best arms and ammunition to counterterrorism in real manner rather than take recourse to oating new fancy ideas whichare proving to be a futile exercise on their part.

Our current issue is focused on Iran which I think is very topical considering thepresent happenings in the region that would be affecting India as well. The majorthreat I can foresee is what happens if Iran stops supplying oil to India for any reason.What is going to happen to our economy which is very much dependent on stable oilprices and we are importing approximately 12 per cent of our total oil requirementfrom Iran. I wish things are sorted out soon between Iran, Israel and US - so thatIndian interests are not affected adversely.

Jai Hind!

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executive editor

The country comes rst - always and every time.

Maj Gen (Dr) G D Bakshi SM, VSM (retd)

A

crisis looms in the Gulf of Iran. It reached our shores with the attack on an Israelidiplomat in Delhi last month. However far more serious is the threat of an impending

conventional conict between Israel and Iran. If the Straits of Hormuz blow up in ourfaces, it could have serious consequences for our economy. The facts are stark. 68 per cent ofour energy needs (some gures put it as high as 72 per cent) are sourced from the Gulf. Thisincludes 68 per cent of our oil and virtually 100 per cent of natural gas. Our oil reneries thatused to rene and re-export Iranian crude are close to losing some US$ 40 billion worth ofbusiness. 12 per cent of our oil is imported from Iran. Our Strategic Partners expect us to

jettison our national and energy security interests and make ourselves entirely dependent upon Saudi Arabia for oil.The consequences of such a pathetic dependence on a single source could be catastrophic in the event of say a conictwith Pakistan or China or both. Our media today is rife with speculations about an IranIsrael shadow war beingwaged in the streets of New Delhi. Of far greater concern however are the threats to our energy security.

What if the economic sanctions on Iran panic it into blocking the Straits of Hormuz? What if Israel attacks Iraniannuclear facilities? How would such a scenario pan out? What are the chances of the success of such a strike - howcould it be conducted? Far more important, what would be its consequences? Some 6 million Indians work in the Gulfand remit some US$ 40 billion annually. In case of war therefore, apart from the hit to our energy supplies, we stand

to lose some US$ 80 billion a year of rening revenue and remittances. The price of oil could climb up by 4-5 timesthe normal (to US$ 200 and beyond per barrel) and deliver a serious blow to our economy. Most of our reneries aregeared to the specic type of crude imported from Iran and as such India cannot rapidly transit to other types of crudein a hurry. We need to urgently check the status of our Strategic oil reserve. We need to anticipate the future and growout of pathetic knee jerk responses that seem more concerned with safeguarding the National Security Interests of ourStrategic Partners than our own. Our own national and energy security interests cannot come last, always and everytime in such interactions.

Yet we are faced with a Hobsons choice. We need our friends. Especially, tried and tested friends like Israel, who havehelped us in every conict and (like the Russians) are willing to give us their latest and the best in military technologies.We need the Americans to counterbalance the power of a rising China that is beginning to loom ominously in ourbackyard. Of course we need our friends but the counterpoint is, they need us equally. The situation is materiallydifferent from what it was a few years back when we were asked to jettison Iranian oil in return for nuclear energy.Our American Strategic Partners are today in full-edged retreat from Afghanistan. We will badly need Iran for access

to Afghanistan and Central Asia. We are rapidly losing ground to China in Iran (even as we had earlier lost ground inMyanmar and had belatedly to take energetic steps to correct a decade or more of drift). Gratuitous advice that we mustnow underline our subservient status in South Asia, by handing over Jammu and Kashmir on a platter to Pakistan andrecognising Islamabads right to reduce Afghanistan to a colony, are not tenable or welcome anymore.

Sure, we do not need a nuclear arms race triggered in West Asia by an Iranian Bomb in the basement. Any furthernuclearisation of our neighbourhood would be highly destabilising. Equally, Iran needs to tone down its tub thumpingrhetoric on Israel and adopt more realist policies. However, Iran should not be panicked into a situation where, likeNorth Korea, the nuclear card becomes its sole survival option. The Americans were prepared to live with a Pakistanibomb because it only threatened Indian cities. Can they live with an Iranian bomb rather than a Global Recession?In the end, we may be forced to seek alternative sources of supply in the short term. However it would be a strategicdisaster for Asian powers to become reliant on western approval to access Middle Eastern energy resources in the longterm.

It is time therefore to take stock, do plain talking to friends and foes alike and keep contingency plans ready. Soldiers,statesmen and strategists have done just that in this issue of theDSA devoted to the looming crisis in Iran. It is deeplylinked to a dangerous sectarian fault line crisis in the Islamic world. The Shia-Sunni axis could equally erupt, addingnew complexities to the Middle Eastern cocktail of oil, gas and angst. There is a bomb ticking away in the Persian Gulf.It would be in our prime national interests to defuse it if we can. If we cant we have to safeguard our own nationalsecurity interests as best as we can.



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A R T I C L E S

contents

the Iran dilemma 6

Amb Dr Kanwal Sibal

Israeli attack on Iran? 10

dire consequences for India

Maj Gen (Dr) G D Bakshi SM, VSM (retd)

Iran - a war has begun 20

Vice Adm Vijay Shankar PVSM, AVSM (retd)

Irans foreign policy 26

and its impact on India-Iran relations

Dr Arvind Gupta

A peep at the Asian crystal ball in 2012 30

Vice Adm Arun Kumar Singh (retd)

crisis over Irans nuclear programme: 33

implications for India

Brig Gurmeet Kanwal (retd)

the Iran-Israel intelligence war 39

Dr Prem Mahadevan

crisis in Iran: impact on India's energy security 43

Dr Ahmad Reza Taheri

likely impact of Iran's nuclear programme 46

Maj Gen P K Chakravorty VSM (retd)

the looming crisis in Iran: 50

impact on India's energy security

Air Marshal B K Pandey (retd)

Indias challenge in west asia 54

Dr Harsh V Pant

international oil scenario and 57

energy security for India

Lt Gen O P Kaushik (retd)

Volume 3 Issue 6 March 2012

C r i s i s i n I r a n ISSUE March 2012

4 March 2012 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT


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F E A T U R E S

Follow DSA on : DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

Follow DSA on : DSALERT

walking the tightrope 62

Dr Navniit Gandhi

Irans nuclear bomb: emerging threat of war 65

Dr Sudhanshu Tripathi

link to Afghanistan and beyond 68

Cecil Victor

EU-Iran relations 78

Ms Dominika Cosic

Defence Industry Monitor 18, 19, 29

Exclusive Interview - MD, ShinMaywa, Japan 37

The Maldivian Question 72

Security Round-up 61, 71, 81



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NATIONAL INTEREST PARAMOUNT

Indias strategic interest in maintaining a productiverelationship with Iran conicts with United States strategicinterest in a regime change there. Indias political andeconomic interests in Iran are apparent, whether they relateto energy security, easier access to Afghanistan, counteringPakistan-backed Taliban in Afghanistan, proting fromcontradictions between Iran and Pakistan and maintaininga balanced posture on the Iran-Saudi Arabia and thedeveloping Shia-Sunni divide in West Asia. A strategicpartnership should have an element of reciprocity. IfIndia is to take cognizance of vital US strategic concerns,the reverse should be the case too in some measure.The US has tolerated nuclear and missile cooperationbetween China and Pakistan as it strategically balancedIndo-Soviet ties in the cold war era. Pakistans nuclear

capability was seen as India-centric, not a regional problem.Even today the US is unwilling to make an issue of Chinascontinued support to Pakistans nuclear programme inviolation of the NSG guidelines. The frenzied westernopposition to Irans nuclear programme contrasts with theattitude to Pakistans programme.

Amb Dr Kanwal Sibal

India has to give priority to

its energy security, particularly

as it already imports

70 per cent of its oil and gas needsand this gure will increase to

90 per cent in the years ahead.

While it has diversied its

sources of oil supply, Iran remains

its second largest supplier

after Saudi Arabia, providing

about 12 per cent of its annual

requirements worth about US$

12 billion. Iran has the second

largest reserves of gas in the

world and can also be a source

of either pipeline gas or LNG if

pipeline security issues can be

resolved and Iran can have access

to embargoed LNG technology.

With Iran geographically located

virtually next door it makes no

sense for India to compromise

its long term interests there

by cutting off or reducing oil

purchases from that country for

extraneous political reasons

Amb Dr Kanwal Sibal joined

the Indian Foreign Service in

1966. He reached the highest

position in the Indian Foreign

Service on his appointment

as Foreign Secretary to the

Government of India from

July 2002 to November 2003.

He is a member of Indias

National Security AdvisoryBoard. He is on the Board

of Directors of the New York

based East-West Institute. He

is on the Advisory Board of

the Vivekanand International

Foundation. He has received

the high distinction of Grand

Ofcier of the Ordre du Merite

from France.



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HOBSONS CHOICE?

The terror strike on an Israeli diplomat brought theIran-Israel shadow war to the streets of Delhi. Any crisis inthe Persian Gulf would dramatically escalate the price of

oil and thereby seriously impact on the Indian and globaleconomy. The price of oil could easily cross US$ 200 perbarrel and more. Over 68 per cent of Indias oil suppliesand 100 per cent of its gas are currently sourced from theGulf region. The US and Europe are now putting in placeeconomic sanctions to target Irans oil exports. Iran in turn hasthreatened to block the Straits of Hormuz in retaliation. AnyIranian attempts to close the Gulf of Hormuz could seriouslyimpact the Chinese, Indian, Japanese and South Koreaneconomies. Such an economic crisis would be pushing theenvelope too far and there is now a need for a frank dialogue

between us and our strategic partners. This article analysesthe likely shape and contours of an Israeli military strike onIran and its huge consequences. A clear and present dangeris looming and there is a dire need to anticipate events anddefuse the crisis before it overtakes us.

Maj Gen (Dr) G D Bakshi

SM, VSM (retd)

Iran has threatened that insuch a strangulation scenario

it would close the straits of

Hormuz and trigger a global

economic recession. The

economies worst hit would be

those of China, India, Japan and

South Korea. Over the last two

years India has already lost some

US$ 40 billion of export revenues

because the Reliance facility at

Jamnagar has been prevented

from rening Iranian crude oil. It

is noteworthy that India imports

of oil were some 21.2 mn tons

some two years ago. These are

still at 13 mt. Any closure of the

Gulf of Hormuz could trigger an

energy crisis as over 68 per cent

of Indias oil imports come from

the Persian Gulf countries. The

price of oil could easily cross over

US$ 200 per barrel and trigger a

serious economic crisis not just in

Asia but all over the globe

The writer is a combat

veteran of many skirmishes

on the Line of Control and

counter-terrorist operations

in Jammu and Kashmir and

Punjab. He subsequently

commanded the reputed

Romeo Force during intensive

counter-terrorist operations in

the Rajouri-Poonch districts.He has served two tenures

at the highly prestigious

DirectorateGeneral of MilitaryOperations. He is a prolic

writer on matters military

and non-military and has

published 24 books and

over 100 papers in many

prestigious research journals.

He is also Executive Editor of

Defence and Security Alert

(DSA) magazine.



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ISRAELIATTACKONIRAN?DIRECONSEQUENCESFORINDIA



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French Dassault And Indian Reliance Industries Limited Join Hands

Barely a week after bagging the US$ 15 billion 126 ghter aircraft deal, French Dassaultand Indian Reliance Industries Limited (RIL) have signed an agreement under whichthey will start working together in defence and homeland security sector from next week."Dassault Aviation, a major player in the global aerospace industry, has entered into MOUwith Reliance Industries, for pursuing strategic opportunities of collaboration in the area of

complex manufacturing and support in India," the two companies said in a joint statement.The MOU has been signed after the Defence Ministry on January 31 offered Dassault themulti-billion dollar deal to supply 126 combat aircraft to the IAF.

Sources said Dassault would involve RIL for working together in the Medium-MultiroleCombat Aircraft (MMRCA) deal here under the offsets clause. After nalising the deal,Dassault will have to reinvest 50 per cent of the worth of the deal back into Indian defencesector. The aerospace and security division of the Reliance Industries is headed by Vivek Lall,who has been closely associated with the MMRCA deal while spearheading the campaign for Boeing in the deal. Lall has earlierworked with American NASA and Raytheon. In the recent past, there have been efforts by the MukeshAmbani-headed RIL toposition itself in the defence, internal security and aerospace solutions sector.

Guidelines For Defence Public-Private Sector JVs Approved

India has come out with detailed guidelines on formation of joint ventures (JVs) betweendefence public and private rms enabling future tie-ups between the two for exploringbusiness opportunities in the security sector and for boosting indigenous design, developmentand production capabilities, over four months after it had put on hold such an effort byMumbai-based government-owned Mazagon Docks and Gujarat-based private sector PipavavDefence and Offshore Engineering. The decision also comes even as there is a major debatein progress over demands from the private sector for increasing the foreign direct investmentin the defence business from the existing cap of 26 per cent to 49 per cent, which they claimwould increase technology transfer and also help develop indigenous capabilities. The newguidelines, prepared by the defence ministry, were approved by the central cabinet headed byPrime Minister Manmohan Singh and in which Defence Minister A K Antony is a key member.The guidelines, it said, will help enhance "fairness and transparency" in the selection of the JV

partner and ensure "A well-dened nature and scope" of the JV. It will also explicitly help in retention of the "afrmative right" ofthe Defence Public Sector Undertaking (DPSU) for prior approval to key JV decisions such as amendments to articles of associationof the company, declaration of dividend, sale of substantial assets and formation of further JVs or subsidiaries. The guidelines alsomandate that there will be "exit provisions" for the DPSU under the JV and there will be regular reporting and monitoring of the

JV functioning."The JV guidelines will provide a streamlined, fair and transparent framework for entering into JVs by DPSUs, withthe ultimate objective of better risk-management, greater efciency and shorter time frames for delivery to meet the increasingdemands of our armed forces and for enhancing self-reliance in the defence sector as a whole," defence ministry ofcials said. Theguidelines became necessary after MDL formed a JV with Pipavav for modular shipbuilding, but this decision came in for criticismfrom other private shipbuilders in the country such as Larsen & Toubro, ABG Shipyard and Bharati Shipyard, who lodged formalprotests with the defence ministry, leading to Antony's decision to put the MDL-Pipavav JV on hold in September 2011.

Since 2000 India had opened up its defence sector, which was till then the exclusive domain of government-owned undertakings,for private participation and also allowed for 26 per cent foreign participation in private JVs. There is a demand for hiking thedefence FDI cap to 49 per cent and this demand also has the support of the ministry of commerce and industry. But the defenceministry wants to keep it at 26 per cent for the moment.

India has allowed for 50 per cent foreign participation in defence design, development and production projects only in the case

of Russian rms and the best example of this is BrahMos Aerospace, an Indo-Russian partnership rm that developed and nowproduces the eponymous 290-km range supersonic cruise missiles that are already in service withthe nation's armed forces.



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Rolls-Royce Water Jets For Indian Coast Guard

British aerospace manufacturer Rolls-Royce will soon deliver 60 water jets for a new eet of20 Fast Patrol Vessels for the Indian Coast Guard, the company said announcing its results lastweek. Rolls-Royce "will deliver 60 Rolls-Royce water jets for a new eet of 20 Fast Patrol Vesselsfor the Indian Coast Guard," the company's India President Anil Shrikhande, said in New Delhi.

"India is a key market for Rolls-Royce and one in which we have been active for over 75 years.We continue to develop our manufacturing and engineering-services presence here throughmutually benecial collaborations with companies like Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL),L&T, TCS and Quest. Recently, the company had announced the start of construction of a facilityin Bangalore, to manufacture important aerospace components for the Trent family of engines.Today Rolls-Royce engines are powering Indias critical growth sectors like civil aerospace,defence aerospace, marine and energy. We are proud to be a partner in progress and look forwardto continuing to deliver excellence for our customers in India during 2012, Shrikhande added.

Selex Sistemi Naval Radars ForINS Vikrant

Selex Sistemi Integrate, part of the Italian major Finmeccanica company, has inkeda contract with state-owned Cochin Shipyard Limited for the delivery of naval radarfor Indias indigenous aircraft carrier. As per the contract, the Italian rm Selex will

deliver the air surveillance naval radar RAN 40L and IFF radar for the 4, 00,000tonnewarship INS Vikrant.

The Italian rm Selex Sistemis radar called RAN-40L is a 3D long range earlywarning radar with fully solid state active phased array antenna which is capable ofdetecting an aircraft up to 400 kilometers. The design of the RAN-40L radar has beenproven on the land based 3D RAT-31DL by the rm. The 3D RAT-31DL is the famouslong range surveillance radar provided worldwide to the NATO countries.

Selex Sistemi Integrati has been a dependable supplier of radar systems for airdefence to India and has had a presence in India for almost four decades. In the naval eld, the parent company Finmeccanica hassupplied three command and control systems for the Godavari and Brahmaputra class frigates and the additional logistic support.The company is also providing the Indian Navy and Air Force with the PAR 2080Csystem, a Precision Approach Radar. Lately, theItalian rm has also realised radars and systems for air trafc control to be set up at a few airports in southern Indian cities.

The Worlds First Precision 81 MM Guided Mortar Round

General Dynamics Ordnance and Tactical Systems and BAE Systems have teamed todevelop, demonstrate and produce the 81 mm Roll Controlled Guided Mortar (RCGM), anaffordable 81 mm precision mortar round. The companies have been maturing the guidedmortar technology over the last 12 months and will be conducting tactical demonstrationsearly in 2012.

The teaming arrangement between General Dynamics Ordnance and Tactical Systems, abusiness unit of General Dynamics and BAE Systems' Munitions business, will leverage theirrespective strengths to provide a low-cost, highly affordable, precision mortar. The 81 mmRCGM uses the current UK L41 round and US M734A1 fuse, but incorporates GPS guidanceand General Dynamics' patented Roll Controlled Fixed Canard (RCFC) technology to providea precision strike capability.



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MILITARY PRE-EMPTION

A war has begun in Iran; a combination of covert action,economic sanctions, political isolation and the threat of militarypre-emption have not just crippled the Iranian economy buthave checkmated Irans war waging potential. The threat ofunleashing an asymmetric conict is more pressure tacticsthan a credible denial strategy. Critical aspect is assessingIrans ability to close the Gulf as threatened periodically. Iranand especially the naval elements of its Revolutionary GuardCorps, has sought to develop a unique denial naval forcebased largely upon otillas of fast, attack crafts backed upby a variety of crafts capable of laying mines, conventionaland midget submarines. These are supported by shore-basedanti-shipping missiles, aircraft, rockets and artillery all withrudimentary command and control. However they are notequipped materially nor technologically for any sustaineddenial operations when up against US and coalition forces. Whatthey could achieve is disruption through low level sporadicattacks on shipping. Whether Iran has the political sagacity tocope with the current situation without giving opportunity forthe US to take recourse to arms is a moot question. And whatof the strategy of despair: terror?

Vice Adm Vijay Shankar

PVSM, AVSM (retd)

The nature of war that we are

currently witness to in Iran doesnot readily fall into any mould.

Covert action, cyber attacks and

political alienation sufciently

reinforced by economic sanctions

and intrusive nuclear inspections

on the one hand, has unleashed

globally disruptive nationalism

on the other. Potentially a far

more dangerous effect is what

nations over the last century

have turned to, the strategy of

despair: terrorism

The writer holds an MSc in

Defence Studies and is a

graduate of the Naval War

College, Newport, Rhode

Island, USA. He is the former

Commander-in-Chief of the

Andaman and Nicobar

Command, C-in-C of the

Strategic Forces Command

and Flag Ofcer CommandingWestern Fleet. His Command

and operational experience are

comprehensive and include

Command of INS Viraat the

aircraft carrier. He is a member

of the adjunct faculty of the

National Institute of Advanced

Studies and he currently

tenants the Admiral Katari

Chair of Excellence at the

United Services Institute.



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Iran-AWarhasBegun



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16/47

BALANCING ACT

Dr Arvind Gupta

India Iran relations took a turn for the worse when India votedagainst Iran at the IAEA in 2005, 2006 and 2009. Eventually,Iran was referred to the UN security council which resulted inimposition of UN sanctions on it. Iran has also been apprehensive

of the Indo-US nuclear deal. Iran feels that India has jettisoned itsindependent foreign policy by siding with the US against Iran. InIrans perception, the lack of progress in the Iran-Pakistan-Indiapipeline is due to the US pressure on India. Iran will be crucialto any settlement of the Afghan conict. In the rapidly changinggeopolitical environment, India and Iran must maintain closerelationship. This will require India to balance its relations withIran on the one hand and the US, Israel and the Gulf countries onthe other. Indias Finance Minister has stated that India will notstop buying oil from Iran. This should reassure Iran.

The writer is the Director

General, IDSA, New Delhi. The

views expressed in this article

are personal.

Iran will be crucialto any settlement ofthe Afghan conict.

A large number ofAfghan refugees arestill living in Iran. Thewestern regions ofAfghanistan are linkedwith Iran. The Afghangovernment tries tomaintain good relationswith Iran despite theformer's overwhelmingdependence on theWest for survival



17/47

IransForeignPolicyanditsImpactonIndia-IranRelations



18/47

Raytheon, US Navy CompleteJSOW C-1 Developmental Testing

The U S Navy completed developmental testing (DT) of the Raytheon CompanyJoint Standoff Weapon C-1. The conclusion of DT brings US and allied warghtersone step closer to being able to engage moving ships as far as 60 nautical miles (70statute miles) away with an air-launched weapon. Developmental testing nishedwhen the JSOW C-1 struck a small, fast-moving ship target during the weapon's

second ight test.

Boeing Begins production OfF/A-18E/F

Boeing has announced that it has started productionof the new Distributed Targeting System (DTS) for theF/A-18E/FSuper Hornet strike ghter.

It is part of the U S Navy's F/A-18E/FNetwork CentricWarfare Upgrades programme and the F/A-18E/FFlight

Plan, which will ensure that the Super Hornet remainsahead of emerging threats in coming decades.

The Boeing Super Hornet is a multirole aircraft, able toperform virtually every mission in the tactical spectrum,including air superiority, day/night strike with precision-guided weapons, ghter escort, close air support,suppression of enemy air defences, maritime strike,reconnaissance, forward air control and tanker missions.

Boeing has delivered more than 480 F/A-18E/Fto the USNavy. Every Super Hornet produced has been deliveredahead of schedule and on budget.

Cmde Samaddar Appointed Director and CEO of ShinMaywa, India

Commodore Sujeet Samaddar, NM (retd) has been appointed as Director andChief Executive Ofcer of ShinMaywa Industries India Private Limited (SMIIPL). SMIIPLis a wholly owned subsidiary of ShinMaywa Industries Ltd Japan, which manufacturesamphibian aircraft, industrial machinery systems, special purpose trucks, aircraftpassenger boarding bridges, water treatment equipment and environmental systems.Sujeet will be based in New Delhi. Sujeet is an alumnus of IIT Roorkee and has two mastersin Defence and Security Studies and a postgraduate diploma in Business Management. Heis also an alumii of the United Nations University, Tokyo and the National Institute forDefence Studies, Tokyo. Sujeet retired from the Indian Navy after 29 years of service whichincluded command of four warships and held several key staff and training assignments.He has several years of experience in defence acquisitions and defence budgets having

retired as the Principal Director Naval Plans. Post retirement he served as Vice PresidentOperations at NOVA Integrated Systems a TATA Enterprise.



19/47

Vice Adm Arun Kumar Singh

(retd)

The Iran-USA standoff on the Iranian threat to close theHormuz straits, has serious implications for India, as it imports70 per cent of its oil and gas from the Middles East, on ships

transiting the Hormuz straits. The EU decision to ban oil importsfrom Iran wef July 2012 and Israel's decision to give the USA only12 hours notice of any strike on Iran'snuclear facilities, bothannounced on 23 January 2012, have further aggravated tensions.

The writer is former Flag

Ofcer Commanding-in-Chief

of the Eastern Naval

Command, Vishakhapatnam.

He was Director General of

the Indian Coast Guard during

the Tsunami of 2004 and

Commander-in-Chief of the

Tri-Service, Andaman and

Nicobar Command. He is alsoa prolic writer on maritime,

strategic and nuclear issues.

Even if the US Navy uses

force to keep the Hormuz

straits open, the conict

would soon result in western

air and cruise missile strikes

on Iranian ports, airelds,

coastal missile batteries and

other military installations,

along with "nuclear weapon

building facilites". This

conict will take weeks toopen the Hormuz straits and of

course would end only when

a suitable "regime change"

takes place in Tehran. India

needs to expedite its oil and

gas reserves, "operationalise"

the Kudankulam civil nuclear

reactors and have contingency

plans to evacuate Indian

expatriates from the Middle

East

CAPRICIOUS MINDSET



20/47

A peep at the Asian

Crystal Ball in 2012



21/47

Brig Gurmeet Kanwal (retd)

REGIONAL INSTABILITY

Diplomatic arm-twisting on the Iranian nuclear crisis is continuingto undermine the strategic partnership between India and theUnited States (US). No single issue has posed as much of a foreign

policy challenge for the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance(UPA) government in India like the on-going Iranian nuclearimbroglio. The majority in India perceives Iran as a non-hostileMuslim country with which India can do business. However,most Indians are unfavourably disposed towards the presenthard-line regime, are in favour of greater restraint on the part ofIran. India cannot wish away the crippling impact that economicsanctions and, even worse, military strikes on Iran will have onits energy security and its trade in the region. In the ultimateanalysis, Indias interests lie in the diplomatic resolution of thecrisis.

The writer is Director, Centre

for Land Warfare Studies,

New Delhi. The views

expressed in this article are

personal.

While the on-going

stand-off will not result in a

major breakdown in Indo-US

ties, it will dampen Indias

enthusiasm for greater depth

and sustained cooperation in the

nascent strategic partnership.

It will also have a debilitating

impact on Indias civil nuclear

energy programme, which

cannot ourish without

advanced Western nuclear

reactor technology and

safeguarded nuclear fuel. It

will further increase Indias

dependence on fossil fuels for

sustained economic growthand force India into forging

an energy security partnership

with Iran on Iranian terms. The

latter course of action is neither

in Indian interests nor in US

interests

Crisis over Irans Nuclear Programme:Implications for India



22/47

DSA: Kindly tell our readers about ShinMaywa Industries? When was the company founded? What products do you have to offerthe Indian Armed Forces?

ShinMaywa: ShinMaywa Industries began its business operations as the Kawanishi Machinery Company about 90 years ago. Thecompany later renamed as ShinMaywa Industries Ltd. (ShinMaywa means New Bright Harmony) expanded its business to includePassenger Boarding Bridges, Environmental Systems, Pumps, Direct Drive Motors and automated car parking systems. We nowhave customers in more than a 100 countries. We have overseas plants in ve countries and last year we had sales of about US$ 1.3B.Our company philosophy is to contribute to the improvement of societies and our company prioritises the values of Safety, Quality,Schedule and Cost in all its operations. The Company has supplied 47 seaplanes to the Japanese Maritime Self Defence Force (JMSDF).Its latest product is the US-2 which is operated by the JMSDF. We have offered the same US-2 to the Indian Navy.

DSA: Would you like to share ShinMaywa vision for its India operations with us?

ShinMaywa: ShinMaywa is a major supplier of Passenger Boarding Bridges and Wire Terminating machines to Indian customers.

We have now responded to the Indian Navys RFI for amphibian aircraft. We also have regular inquiries for our other engineeringproducts and environment systems. We are here in India for the long term.

DSA: ShinMaywa Industries are contributing to the advancement of the aircraft industry by fusing traditional craftsmanshipand leading-edge technology. How do you differentiate your technology from the others when it comes to making the nestamphibian aircraft?

ShinMaywa: The STOL Technology based on BLC (Boundary Layer Control) which allows ultra-low speed operations andintroduction of Spray Suppressor technology which enables operation in rough seas with waves of three meter high is unmatched.This permits least takeoff and landing distance whether on land or sea, the longest range, the highest payload and is the only aircraftin its class which is proven, in-service and certied / ruggedised for military specications. Its radar system combines both weatherand surface surveillance. For India, the US-2 uses the same class of engines that the C130Juses. I think we have a very good productfor our global and strategic partner - India. I also see the US-2 as a very good vehicle to implement the vision of our two countries tobuild a solid partnership between India and Japan. This benets a larger world community and would rightly t into Indias growingresponsibilities.

DSA: Could you elaborate about the amphibian aircraft in greater detail? What is their usefulness in the Indian context?

ShinMaywa: The US-2 is a vastly superior aircraft with y-by-wire ight controls, glass cockpit with integrated instrument panels,pressurised cabin and new marinised AE 2100 J Rolls Royce engines with increased power. Its high performance capabilities andversatility enables the aircraft to be deployed for a wide spectrum of missions including surveillance, MEDEVAC, remote islands andoffshore platforms support and enhanced SAR capabilities, eet logistic support and many others. Every day we hear that the aircraftcan be given more missions because of its unique capabilities. These ultimately benet society. This is an aircraft that meets not onlyIndian requirements but also provides a capability for regional deployments commensurate with global expectations from a risingpower such as India. The US-2 is really the best option for safe seas and secure coasts for a better tomorrow. We are very happy andready for joining DEFEXPO in New Delhi to introduce our amphibious aircraft US-2 to many people in India.

DSA: What are your business expansion plans for the Indian market? Where do you see ShinMaywa Industries in India10 years down the line?

ShinMaywa: Ten years is not such a long time. Our focus is to rst introduce the US-2 in the Indian Navy since we believe that thisaircraft is really the best and second to none in its category. Our other products are also of unmatched quality and use very powerfulmodern technologies. We expect that the Indian market will accept our products for their high quality and high technology. Ourintention is to be in India for the long term and we will expand our operations in a calibrated manner.


23/47

LANDMARK LTD. CROSSWORDSPENCERS OM BOOK SHOPODYSSEY

A N N O U N C E S

April 2012 Issue on

he First and the Only ISO 9001:2008 Certified Defence and Security Magazine in India

TIBET:CHINESE BRIDGEHEAD OR VULNERABILITY?

Available at all leading bookstores

annoncmnt


24/47

Dr Prem Mahadevan

INDIAN CONCERNS

A useful analysis of Israels covert offensive against Irans nuclearfacilities and its likely consequences in terms of a regional conictthat could close the straits of Hormuz and cause major damage to ourenergy security and the economyper se. What is worse is that the Israelicovert methodologies used could inspire the ISI and its Jihadi cohortsto attack Indian nuclear facilities and scientists. That constitutes a verydangerous new scenario for which India must prepare its responseoptions.

The writer is Senior Researcher

for Intelligence, Sub-state

Conict and Organised Crime

at the Center for Security

Studies in Zurich, Switzerland.

Between 2002 and 2009, he

completed an undergraduate

degree in War Studies and

postgraduate and doctoral

degrees in Intelligence Studiesfrom King's College, London.

He has written extensively

on Indian and Pakistani

intelligence agencies and

his articles on Indian

counter-terrorism have been

made recommended reading

for military ofcers in North

America and Western Europe.

The Guards have roughly

2,000 mines with which to

block commercial shipping

in the Straits, although it isestimated that not more than

300 are actually needed for the

purpose. Iran also has a large

eet of speedboats with which

to mount guerrilla-style attacks

on merchant vessels and is

positioning missiles to hit the

wealthy and crowded cities

of the United Arab Emirates,

just across the Strait. Unless

tensions can be defused in the

next few months, some kind of

military action is likely

TheIran-IsraelIntelligenceWar



25/47

Dr Ahmad Reza Taheri

INDIAN CONCERNS

An important article that presents the Iranian perspective on thecrisis likely to emerge from Western economic sanctions. Iran exports60 per cent of its crude oil to Asia; China alone imports 20 per centof its crude oil from Iran .According to Iranian ofcial reports, Iran'soil accounts for 16.6 per cent of India's crude oil imports. Accordingto Indian ofcial reports, India has imported about 22 million tons ofcrude oil valued at about US$ 10 billion in 2009-2010, which makes itthe third largest market for Iranian crude. India exports diesel, renedoil, petroleum products and processed minerals to Iran. It is said thatclose to 40 per cent of the rened oil consumed by Iran is imported

from India. The article is pessimistic that India is likely to buckle underWestern pressure and shift its energy dependency almost entirely tothe GCC countries.

The writer is Assistant

Professor of Political Science,

University of Iranshahr, Iran.

He is an expert on Iran and

Western Political Philosophy.

He has published many books

and contributed articles in

academic periodicals.

In lessening or cutting

relations with Iran, India

has to deal with care, since

this approach might create

few divisions or confusions

within the Republic of India,

especially on the part of

Muslim community. Thirdly, a

safe Afghanistan matters a lot

to the Indian national interest.

India knows that together

with a sincere Iran, they

may be capable of workingto make a relative secure

Afghanistan. Neither India nor

Iran will welcome a regime in

Afghanistan close to Pakistans

ISI. Fourthly, a friendly Iran

can play its own positive role

in Indo-Pak relations. The

Iran-Pak-India pipeline, for

example, could meet the energy

demands of both India and

Pakistan, had it been approved

CRISIS IN IRAN:IMPACT ON INDIA'S ENERGY SECURITY



26/47

THE GENESIS

Post 1979 revolution Iran has fought a war with Iraq, stated publiclyher wish to Wipe out Israel and has been on hostile terms with all

Arab countries except Syria. Iran also provides nancial assistance

and arms to the Hamas group in Palestine and the Hezbollah groupin Lebanon. The implications of Iran having nuclear weapons arecertainly a threat to the Middle Eastern region. A well researched

article that traces the genesis of the current crisis.

A senior retired intelligence

ofcial from Israel has stated

it was not possible for Iran to

develop a bomb before 2015,

an assessment agreed by most

American ofcials. The main

hitch is the centrifuges have

been partially disabled by a

computer virus the Stuxnet

worm. Stuxnet appeared in

industrial programmes around

2009. Experts dissecting the

virus, soon deduced that it

had been possibly calibrated

in a way that it would send

nuclear centrifuges wildly out

of control, adding to suspicions

that it was meant to sabotage

Irans nuclear programme.

Apparently Stuxnet appears

to have wiped out roughly

20 per cent of Irans nuclear

centrifuges, thereby delaying

production of nuclear weapons

Maj Gen P K Chakravorty

VSM (retd)

The writer is an alumnus of

National Defence Academy

who was commissioned into

the Regiment of Artillery on

31 March 1972. A Silver Gunner

who has undergone the Long

Gunnery Staff Course, Staff

College and is a graduate of

the National Defence College.

He has commanded a MediumRegiment and a Composite

Artillery Brigade. He was

Major General Artillery of

an operational Command,

Commandant of Selection

Centre South in Bangalore and

Additional Director General

Artillery at Army Headquarters.

He has also served as the

Defence Attach to Vietnam

and is a prolic writer on

strategic subjects.



27/47

LIKELY IMPACT OFIRANS NUCLEAR PROGRAMME



28/47

SANCTIONS AND AFTERMATH

There is an uncanny similarity between the actions of theUS in the run up to the assault on the sovereignty of Iraqnearly a decade ago and those in the recent months aimed

at what appears to be emerging as serious intent of militaryaction against Iran. The Gulf holds 60 per cent of the globaloil reserves and the three major oil producing nationsSaudi Arabia, Iraq and Iran together can boast of owning25 per cent of the worlds oil reserves. Around 40 per cent of theglobal trade in crude passes through the Strait of Hormuz andhence its blockage by Iran would create a serious imbalance inglobal demand and supply driving oil prices through the roof.

Air Marshal B K Pandey (retd)

Both India and China have

refused to join the crusade for

sanctions against Iran sponsored

by the US. Indias ofcially held

position is that she will comply

with only those sanctions

that are imposed by the UN.

However, given the exclusionof Iran from the international

banking system, India will and

must nd alternatives to pay

for the oil that she proposes to

continue to buy from Iran. One

of the options available to India

could be a model similar to the

rupee-rouble model or barter

system adopted for trade with

the Soviet Union years ago

The writer is former AOC-in-C

HQ Training Command, IAF,

Bengaluru and served for

three years in a Diplomatic

Assignment at the Indian

Embassy during the years

of turmoil (1989-1992) in

war-torn Afghanistan. He

was responsible for setting

up the only English MediumSchool in Kabul at that point

in time. He has also been

Operations Manager at ARC,

an intelligence organisation.



29/47

THE LOOMING CRISIS IN IRAN:IMPACT ON INDIAS ENERGY SECURITY



30/47

PRECARIOUS IMPASSE

As tensions mount in West Asia, India will need to thinkcreatively to safeguard its regional interests. There are somein India who have suggested that New Delhi can play the role

of bringing the US and Iran closer. This is not only a grossoverestimation of Indias own diplomatic heft but a seriousmisreading of the factors that have led to the drifting apart ofthe US and Iran over the last more than three decades. NewDelhi would be better served by focusing on its own interestsand how best to protect them in a regional milieu that is beingshaken by Irans global isolation and military bellicosity. A newcontainment policy is being structured by Washington with theinstallation of anti-missile batteries in the Arab states and withan emerging plan to put more ships and anti-missile batteries

into the Persian Gulf as the concerns of Arab Gulf states haverisen.

Dr Harsh V Pant

India would like to increase

its presence in the Iranian energy

sector because of its rapidly

rising energy needs and is

rightfully feeling restless about

its own marginalisation in Iran.

Not only has Pakistan signed a

pipeline deal with Tehran, but

China also is starting to make

its presence felt. China is now

Irans largest trading partner

and is undertaking massive

investments in the country,

rapidly occupying the space

vacated by Western rms. Iran's

total crude exports to China

increased 47 per cent fromJanuary to July 2011

The writer teaches at Kings

College, London and is

presently a Visiting Fellow at

the University of Pennsylvania,

USA.



31/47

IndiasChallengeinWestAsia



32/47

Lt Gen O P Kaushik (retd)

PRAGMATIC SOLUTION

India imports 73 per cent of its present oil requirements. By theyear 2025 this is likely to get enlarged to 83 per cent. Dependencyon foreign oil is a major security concern for India. Furthermore,major oil suppliers to India - Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iran, Libya,Iraq to name a few are members of Organisation of IslamicConference, a 57 member group of Islamic countries, who, in thepast sided with Pakistan. India must build-up reserve oil stocks.All developed countries have built-up stocks. China is also buyingoil by offering higher prices and creating emergency reserves. Wemust create a strategic Petroleum reserve equivalent of 90 days oftotal Indian crude oil imports.

The writer has been General

Ofcer Commanding in the

Kashmir valley. He was chief of

staff of Eastern Command and

is the former Vice Chancellor

of Maharshi Dayanand

University, Rohtak, India.

Coal is being used for

64 per cent of our energy

consumption. We have enough

coal available indigenously

and, therefore, its use for power

generation can be enhanced to

save on diesel consumption for

the same purpose. Use of oil

for electricity generation can be

further reduced by exploiting

our hydro generation. We have

nearly 300 perennial rivers and

rivulets to provide us unlimited

hydroelectricity. New ndings

of natural gas in Godavaribasin and in Gujarat should

be utilised to meet our energy

requirement and to save oil

INTERNATIONAL OIL SCENARIO AND

ENERGY SECURITY FOR INDIA



33/47

Israeli Embassy Vehicle Attacked In New Delhi

A

n Israeli diplomats car exploded near the Indianprime ministers residence in New Delhi injuring the wifeof an embassy staff member and at least three other people,

in what appeared to be a coordinated, two-pronged terror attackagainst Israeli missions in India and Georgia.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu immediately blamedthe strikes on Iran and Lebanon-based Hezbollah, raising concernsin the Mideast about a more overt confrontation by regionalpowers.

Iran is behind these attacks, Netanyahu said. It is the biggestexporter of terror in the world. ... We will continue to take strongand systematic, yet patient action against the internationalterrorism that originates in Iran.

Amateur video from the scene showed a Toyota Innova withIsraeli diplomatic license plates consumed by ames, its headlightsstill on and black smoke billowing from the wrecked vehicle.The blast also ignited a red car behind the silver Innova, slightlyinjuring two people.

After the attacks, the Israeli Foreign Ministry instructed all diplomats and embassy personnel to refrain from driving theircars until they have been inspected by security personnel.

India condemns such incidents, said Foreign Minister S M Krishna. The investigation has started. We will keep Israelposted.

Israel and India have maintained diplomatic ties for the last 20 years. They have close relations and often share intelligence,given that both face Islamic fundamentalism on their borders. The two are discussing a free-trade agreement.

Israeli ofcials said they had thwarted similar would-be attacks in recent weeks in Azerbaijan and Thailand.

Delhi Police Going Hi-tech

Over the years, along with rapid changes in the way of life, has come a whole new wayof crime. In order to deal with the same with a rm hand, the Delhi Police has been ona modernisation drive to improve its capability and be better equipped to handle the

changing face of crime in the capital.

In addition to this initiative, better and faster vehicles have been procured for the PCR, to givean incisive edge to the whole concept of speedy response, Emergency Response Vehicles have alsobeen attached to all police stations.

Integrated Command Control Co-Ordination And Communication Centre (C4i)

Established in Delhi, the C4i project seeks to provide uniformed situation awareness and an integrated decision supportsystem. The purpose of C4i is to provide real time situation awareness for Delhi Police in all situations and includes variousmarkets border check-posts etc.

CCTV Surveillance System

Delhi Police has CCTV surveillance system in 26 market places and 5 border check-posts. In the next step, 28 new marketsand 10 border check-posts have also been identied for installation of CCTV system.

Know Your Police Station

This is a useful programme initiated recently by Delhi Police in association with Microsoft that has been launched toenable citizens to get information about the respective jurisdictions of 161 territorial police stations of Delhi and other usefulinformation like the police station phone numbers, name and photograph of SHOs, etc. on their website It also enables theuser to visualise the route of the desired police station in respect of any particular location in Delhi and has a mechanism too

for sharing information with the police without disclosing ones identity.



34/47

INDIAS DILEMMA

There are no permanent friends and no permanent enemies in international politics;only permanent interests ...

We cannot afford to be guided by anything but our nationalinterests, in the ongoing issue involving Iran. Much is at stakein the web of global relationships. We cannot antagonise theUS and we cannot join the rhetoric and isolate Iran. Both arerisk-laden propositions. It is, however, Irans geo-strategicposition that makes a big difference to us. Its geographicalproximity to Pakistan and Afghanistan matters. It matters tous that who wields inuence in Afghanistan in the wake ofan exit by the American troops. It is in the mutual interestsof both - India and Iran that Pakistan is prevented fromreigning supreme in the region. Our relationships with both- Iran and Israel could be kept out of limelight and publicview.

Our relationships with

both - Iran and Israel could

be kept out of limelight and

public view. We need access

to hydrocarbons from a mixed

basket of sources, including

Iran. Our ties with Israel will

anger the Islamic world and our

ties with Iran will upset Israel

and the US Since our strategic

and economic gains are at

stake, we have to be cautious

and diplomatic and if possible,

maintain a low prole while

going about doing our business

as usual

Saudi Arabia is the chief

supplier of oil to India and

our crude oil imports from

Riyadh are likely to double

in the next 20 years. There

are approximately 1.5 million

Indian workers in Saudi

Arabiaand their remittances

(US$ 6 billion annually) are a

crucial component of our forex

reserves. Also, we need an

ally with a clout in the Islamic

world

Dr Navniit Gandhi

The writer is a freelancer and

an author of repute based in

Kuwait.



35/47

Dr Sudhanshu Tripathi

PERILOUS IMBROGLIO

Several questions arise as regards to Irans many nuclear centres.

The enrichment centres at Natanz and Qom invariably drawthe attention of IAEA experts because they are equipped withdual devices which, after minor alterations, can produce highlyenriched uranium of weapons grade level. Similarly the researchreactor IR-40 in Arak which is a heavy-water reactor, besides itsnormal function, can also produce weapons grade plutoniumin an easy way. Its construction makes it possible to change fuelcassettes on the y, without ceasing operation. This makes iteasier for manufacturing weapons grade ssionable materials ina secret manner.

The writer is Associate

Professor, Political Science

in Dr R M L Awadh University,

Faizabad, UP.

The IAEA Press and

Public Information Ofcer

Giovanni Verlini informed

The Moscow News over the

next few days, the report will

be distributed only among the

delegations of the member-

countries and that it will be

up to the diplomats to decide

whether to pass on its details to

the press or not

Irans Nuclear Bomb:Emerging Threat of War



36/47

STRATEGIC FULCRUM

The road connecting Zaranj on the Iran-Afghan border toDilaram in west-central Afghanistan on the Kandahar-Herathighway built by India is by itself a good strategic investment

but much will depend on how India is able to manage thesecurity of this 218-km stretch in the face of the barren natureof the landscape and the inherent danger of a Pak-Talibanintervention. More urgent, at the moment, appears to be theneed to retain workable links with Iran in the face of the stridentstandoff between Tehran and the US-led western phalanx benton putting the brakes on what is seen as an Iranian attempt toacquire nuclear weapons.

Indias effort to create

an effectual linkage with

Afghanistan in which the

Zaranj-Delaram highway

will become the umbilical

cord between the besieged

Hamid Karzai regime and the

rest of the world through Irans

Chabahar port is in danger

of being scuttled. India will

have to apply great diplomatic

acumen to try and delink the

western embargo of Iran fromthe creation and maintenance

of a link with Afghanistan

through the Iranian corridor

of Chabahar through Milak

and Sistan. A rail-cum-road

bridge over the early stretch of

the Helmand river is part of the

plan for the strategic link with

Afghanistan

Cecil Victor

The writer has covered all

wars with Pakistan as War

Correspondent and reported

from the conict zones in

Vietnam, Laos and Cambodia

in South East Asia as well

as from Afghanistan. He is

author of India: The Security

Dilemma.



37/47

Link to Afghanistanand beyond



38/47

Mr Rajiv takes over as new CISF DG

Senior IPS ofcer Mr Rajiv took over as the new

chief of the Central Industrial Security Force(CISF), which guards countrys sensitive

installations like airports and nuclear plants.Mr Rajiv, who goes by his rst name, took chargefrom outgoing Director General N R Das at theforce headquarters. Mr Rajiv, a 1975-batch ofcerof Uttar Pradesh cadre, was till recently servingas the Director General of the National DisasterResponse Force (NDRF) and Civil Defence inthe national capital. Taking command of the1.47-lakh strong force, which guards countrysairports and sensitive nuclear and aerospaceinstallations, will serve till his retirement in Octobernext year. A winner of President's Police Medals

for both distinguished service and meritoriousservice, he takes over at a time when the CISF israising fresh units and developing new methodsto enhance security preparedness at its sensitivedeployments including at 58 airports which itguards at present. A Masters in Physics from theAllahabad University, Mr Rajiv has earlier servedas Additional DG in the Sashastra Seema Bal (SSB),a border guarding force, in New Delhi.

SAARC Meeting On Anti-Terror Mechanism

AMeeting of High Level Group of Eminent Experts from SAARC countriesto strengthen Anti-Terror Mechanism was attended by delegates fromBhutan, India, Afghanistan, Nepal, Sri Lanka and the SAARC Secretariat

Indian delegation was led by Director, Intelligence Bureau, Shri Nehchal Sandhu.

Issues relating to further improving the functioning of SAARC Terrorist Offences MonitoringDesk (STOMD) and the SAARC Drug Offences Monitoring Desk (SDOMD) based in Colombo,Sri Lanka, review of the enabling legislation enacted by the Member States on SAARC RegionalConvention on Suppression of Terrorism and its Additional Protocol as well as the SAARCConvention on Narcotic Drugs and Psychotropic Substances and to further enhance theimplementation process of these Conventions by the Member States were discussed at this Meeting.The Meeting considered the SAARC Convention on Mutual Assistance in Criminal Matters as well.

Exchange of information among the Member States on a real time basis for better coordination tocounter terrorism and drug related activities, developing cooperation, capacity and relationshipbuilding among the SAARC Police authorities were identied, among others, as possible

methods of strengthening the SAARC anti-terrorism mechanism.



39/47

FUTURE TENSE

The strategic importance of the Maldives can hardly beoverstated. 80 per cent of the country is one metre or less abovesea level. Besides, there are other economic and geographical

vulnerabilities the most serious being the problem of globalwarming, which threatens to submerge the country as such.In fact, Maldives forms a geo-physical part of the same ridgethat extends to Diego Garcia. (A major US Naval base). Therehave been persistent reports about Chinas bid to establish asubmarine base in Marao, a coral island (40 km south of Male).There is increasing inroad of Wahhabi Islam in the social andreligious discourse of Maldives. The moderate Sunni societyis increasingly getting radicalised. The latest coup has strongunderpinning of Islamic fundamentalism and the Chinafactor. Nasheed is on record to say that a week before his ouster

he was under pressure from Maldivian National DefenceForce (MNDF) to sign a defence agreement with China.

There have been persistent

reports about Chinas bid

to establish a submarine

base in Marao, a coral island

(40 km south of Male). The

reports gained currency

following the visit of the then

China Premier Zhu Rongji in

2001. The reports mentioned the

Chinese design to base nuclear

submarines with ballistic

missiles. Coral islands make

ne natural submarine base.

There have also been reports

that Pakistan has been using

the Islamic card with Maldives

to provide such facilities toChina

RSN Singh

The writer is former Research

& Analysis Wing (R&AW)

ofcer and has authored

books on strategic and military

affairs.



40/47

The MaldivianQuestion



41/47

EU PERSPECTIVE

This article provides the European perspective on thecoming crisis on Iran. European Union, the writer says, isgoing into confrontation with Iran, specially France andUnited Kingdom. However, all European countries do notfavour conict with Iran. Relations with Iran have beenalways very sensitive. There are two main reasons for thissensitivity EU still does not have one common foreignpolicy and last but not least the trade links are quite close.The European Union is the leading trade partner for Iran,accounting for a third of its imports and Iran is one of themost important exporters of energy to EU. However,after decision of EU foreign ministers, the moment ofconfrontation is almost upon us.

Who will be the bigger

loser in this game the EU or

Iran? Maybe only some of EU

countries? Both sides pretend

to hide doubts. One thing is

quite certain in a worst case,

if war with Iran will start

the EU will be again not

united. France and UK are not

representing whole of Europe,

even Germany the biggest

economic and political power

in EU is not so enthusiastic

Ms Dominika Cosic

The writer is a journalist

and political correspondent

based in Brussels. She

specialises in NATO and

European Union affairs. She

is correspondent (Europe) of

Defence and Security Alert

(DSA) magazine.



42/47

EU-Iran relations



43/47


44/47

Counter Terrorism

As the Union home ministry looks to allay states' concerns over the National

Counter-Terrorism Centre (NCTC), its ofcials are working to answerquestions raised by over a dozen chief ministers about the 'powers' given

to this anti-terror agency which is meant for coordinating counter-terrorism effortsthroughout the country.

Since these chief ministers are strongly opposed to the Centre's noticationempowering NCTC with power to arrest and conduct search and seizures anywherein the country, considering it an encroachment to their jurisdiction, ofcials arefocusing on this particular provision to clarify the ministry's position.

A draft, being nalised by them, explains that it is absolutely necessary to empowerany such agency under section 43 (A) of the Unlawful Activities (Prevention) Act tooperate under 'live' operation situation like what had happened during the 26/11Mumbai terror attack.

Need Intel-Based Approach To Combat Maoists: PC

Union Home Minister P Chidambaram red a couple of roundsfrom a Light Machine Gun (LMG) to give a sound start to theopening of a shooting drill on Wednesday while emphasising

that the Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) will have to acquire anIntel-based strategy to combat Maoists.

Mr Chidambaram was speaking at inauguration of the CRPFIntelligence School. The Home Minister pulled the LMGs trigger likea professional shooter, prompting journalists to ask whether he hit thebulls eye. But there were no answers from the ofcials present at theKadarpur School.

The CRPF, a key force in anti-Naxal operations, will have to acquirean intelligence-based strategy to combatMaoists who have organisedthemselves as a regular ghting army, Mr Chidambaram said.

Counter-insurgency and countering Left-Wing Extremists [LWE]require a very different strategy and approach. Its not intervening,setting things right in a few days and returning to your groupcentre or your headquarters. It is remaining deployed for a long time to take on an adversary such as the CommunistParty of India (Maoists), which is organised as a regular ghting army, the Home Minister said, terming the trainingschool as a milestone in the forces history. All this has made new demands upon the CRPF. One has to developintelligence about his adversary, one has to develop intelligence for operations and one has to work with the communityand build condence among the people in that area, undertake civic action programmes to win the support of thepeople. So, a lot of new activities have to be undertaken by the CRPF, which is why it was felt that a small intelligencewing or a group in each battalion will be necessary [for the CRPF]. The CRPF has deployed more than 70,000 troops for

anti-Naxal operations in various states.



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Documents

DSA Alert March-2012