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DRUG VIOLENCE IN MEXICO: DATA & ANALYSIS THROUGH 2017
University of Texas-El PasoMay 2, 2018
PRESENTATIONbyDAVID A. SHIRK
¡ Relevant Publications
¡ Homicide Trends
¡ Role of Organized Crime
¡ Policy Recommendations
OVERVIEW
¡ 9th annual report on drug violence
¡ Focus on homicide and organized crime killings
¡ Co-authored by Laura Calderón, Octavio Rodríguez Ferreira, & David Shirk
RECENT REPORT: DRUG VIOLENCE
justiceinmexico.org
¡ 28,734 homicides in 2017 (27% increase)
¡ Between 9,883 and 18,898 organized crime killings (at least 1/3 of all homicides)
¡ Fall of ChapoGuzman and rise of New Generation Cartel
MAIN FINDINGS
GENERAL TRENDS IN HOMICIDE
Homicide Trends in Mexico, 1990-2017
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
INEGI Victims SNSP Cases
SNSP Victims
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
D A A D A A D A A D A A D A A D A A D A A D A A D A A D A A D A A
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
Despite early decreases under Peña Nieto, violence is on the rise again—in 2015-17 the trend has reversed to reach Calderón era levels.
3 year decline
3 year resurgenceMulti-year
surges
Monthly Comparison: Calderón vs. EPN
116,468 Murders under Peña122,319 Murders under Calderón
Homicide Rate, 1990-2017
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.019
9019
9119
9219
9319
9419
9519
9619
9719
9819
9920
0020
0120
0220
0320
0420
0520
0620
0720
0820
0920
1020
1120
1220
1320
1420
1520
1620
17
INEGI Rate (Victims) SNSP Rate (Cases)
SNSP Rate (Victims)
Geographic Distribution of Homicides
2017
Local Centers of Violence: 2016 vs. 2017
Source: SNSP (cases)
THE ROLE OF ORGANIZED
CRIME
Tracking OCG Killings, 1990-2017
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
2000019
9019
9119
9219
9319
9419
9519
9619
9719
9819
9920
0020
0120
0220
0320
0420
0520
0620
0720
0820
0920
1020
1120
1220
1320
1420
1520
1620
17
SNSP (OCG) CNDH (OCG)
REFORMA (OCG) MILENIO (OCG)
LANTIA (OCG)
Homicides vs. OCG Killings, 1990-2017
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
INEGI Victims SNSP Cases
SNSP Victims SNSP (OCG)
CNDH (OCG) REFORMA (OCG)
MILENIO (OCG) LANTIA (OCG)
Homicide rate without OCG Killings, 2007-2017
5.7 7.310.3 11.2 11.9 12.6 11.4 10.7 11.5 12.8 13.8
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017INEGI Homicide Rate Homicide Rate without OCG
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
D A A D A A D A A D A A D A A D A A D A A D A A D A A D A A D A A
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
Despite early decreases under Peña Nieto, violence is on the rise again—in 2015-17 the trend has reversed to reach Calderón era levels.
Calderón Administration Peña Administration
Monthly Comparison: Calderón vs. EPN
Pax Sinaloa
“Chapo” Guzmánre-captured
“Chapo” relocated to Juárez
Arrest of Alfredo Beltran Leyva
Miguel “Zeta 40” Treviñoarrested
Benjamin Arellano Extradition “Chapo”
Extradition
Source: SNSP. Maps generated by Octavio Rodriguez.
Key OCG Conflict Areas in 2017
Rise of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel
Special Victims: Males, 1990-2017
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,00019
9019
9119
9219
9319
9419
9519
9619
9719
9819
9920
0020
0120
0220
0320
0420
0520
0620
0720
0820
0920
1020
1120
1220
1320
1420
1520
16
MujerHombre
Special Victims: Journalists
Special Victims: Mayors
Number of Reported Extortion Cases (1997-2014)
Source: SNSP.
0100020003000400050006000700080009000
Extortion(SNSP)
Number of Reported Kidnapping Cases (1997-2014)
Source: SNSP.
0200400600800
10001200140016001800
Kidnappings(SNSP)
POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS
1. Better Monitoring of OCG Violence
2. Enhancing Policing and Prosecutions
3. Special Measures to Address Political Violence
4. Reinvigorating Mexico’s Anti-Corruption Efforts
5. Advancing a Public Health Approach to Drugs
Reco
mm
end
atio
ns
justiceinmexico.org
THA
NK YO
U!
