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DRR-related mandates and relevant activities and projects of

RA II

2016 Meeting of the Disaster Risk Reduction Focal Points of WMO Regional Associations, Technical Commissions and

Programmes (DRR FP RA-TC-TP)

14-16 December 2016, Geneva

Dr K J Ramesh

Director General

India Meteorological Department

1. Projects/activities of [RA/TC/TP] that could be

considered as a good practice in effective

coordination/collaboration across the RAs/TCs/TPs

• Severe Weather Forecast Demonstration Project

• Climate Extremes

• User Interface for Assessing Impacts at extended

range (up to 15-days) on Agriculture; Water

Resources; Public Health; Socio-economic

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2. Priority projects/activities within [RA/TC/TP]

that could benefit from strengthened coordination

/ collaboration across the RAs/TCs/TP?

• Framework development for Impact based Multi-Hazard Early

Warning of weather hazards and climate extremes

• Focused efforts for assessing river catchment/Urban scale

• Hydrological Response to an heavy rainfall (flooding)

• Geological Response to an heavy rainfall (landslide/mudslide on hilly

regions)

• Hydrological and Geological Response

• Sand/Dust Storm Warning Systems

• Assessing regional/national scale Environmental and Air

Quality Impacts from Copernicus Products

• Framework development of Severe Weather Multi-Hazard

Products for Aviation

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3. How can the DRR FP RA-TC-TP mechanism

best add value to your RA’s/TC’s/TP’s work?

• Facilitating the real-time exchange of digital fields medium and

extended range forecasts from Global Centers (ECMWF; NCEP;

JMA; UKMO etc.) for multi-model ensemble product

customization for various sectors

• Building guidance mechanisms for assessing the socio-

economic impact scenarios (very poor currently)

• Building guidance mechanisms and tools for dealing trans-

boundary hydrological hazards

• Guidance on integrating DRR with Climate Risk Management

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5. Topics (thematic, project(s), regional, etc.) for

focusing the next meeting(s) of the DRR FP RA-

TC-TP

• Multi-hazard Coastal Inundation; Deltaic Subsidence; Sea

level changes on coastal zones

• Building guidance for Multi-hazard resilience

• Effective Emergency Response

• Community

• Infrastructure

• Sustained Economic Development in the coastal zones

• shoreline management

• Weather and Climate Smart Coastal City Development

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Cumulative

Rainfall

distribution

(Pan India) WEEK-BY-WEEK

DEPARTURES OF

RAINFALL FROM

NORMAL

State wise District

rainfall map (Available

for all states)

River basin

wise

Rainfall

statistics

District

wise

Rainfall

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Real time Hourly cumulative (one day) AWS/ARG rainfall data on Pan India.

Useful for real time rainfall information, Urban flooding etc.

RIVER BASIN-WISE

SPATIAL ANALYSIS OF

OBSERVED RAINFALL IS

USEFUL FOR RIVER

FLOODING

HYDRO-METEOROLOGICAL SUPPORT FOR

FLOOD FORECASTING

� Estimation of QPF using NWP models

� Two new FMOs started at Bengaluru & Chennai (2016) with addition of 22 river sub basins (Total:13 FMOs).

� Pictorial and tabulation of sub catchment wise QPF from NWP models for 146 sub catchments: WRF & MME for 3 days, GFS for 7 days.

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CONSENSUS FORECAST & ACTUAL

OF 2016 SW MONSOON RAINFALL

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One in nine

family

connected

in the

country.

MAUSAM SEWA

USE OF EXTENDED RANGE WEATHER FORECAST: MAHARASHTRA

June July August Sept.

5th June – 2nd July 17th July-13th August

Vidarbha

(Buldana,Chandrapur,Yeotm

al: 3 districts: Worst affected)Bt. Cotton

� American/Desi cotton

� Intercropping

cotton:sorghum:pigeon

pea:sorghum

� Short duration pigeon pea

Intercropping of sorghum with

pigeon pea

In eastern parts of Vidarbha,

Rice

direct sowing of early maturing

and mid late maturing rice

varieties by wet seeding method

Marathwada

(Aurangabad,Beed,Jalna,Os

namabad,Parbhani,Hingoli,

Nanded,Latur: 8 districts

worst affected)Cotton, soybean, red/black

gram, sugarcane, sorghum and

sunflower

Intercropping of:

� cotton+pigeon pea

� pigeon pea+ sunflower or

bajra

Short duration varieties of

soybean.

Madhya Maharashtrasoybean, cotton, redgram,

hybrid pearlmillet, seasame,

Sunflower and hybrid jowar

Intercropping of:

� Pearlmillet+redgram

� Sunflower+ redgram

� Soybean+ redgram

� guar + redgram

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NEW INITIATIVES:

� Experimental Heat index

introduced in 2016 based on

Temperature and humidity.

� Comfort Index advisory in colour

code (Violet, green, yellow and

red) based on different thresholds

.

INTRODUCED DISTRICT LEVEL ADVISORY

� District level advisory introduced in

July 2016 provide rainfall forecast in

different ranges for D1, D2 & D3.

� Also provide past rainfall ending at

0830 hours IST.

� MME is modified by value addition

by forecasters of MCs/RMCs.

INTRODUCED COMFORT INDEX ADVISORY

NEW INITIATIVES: HEAT ACTION PLAN

� Heat action plan extended to

four cities across Central India

namely, Ahmedabad, Surat,

Nagpur and Bhubaneswar.

� Working with Public

Health Foundation of India

to expand activities of

Heat Action Plan at State

level with Govts.

� Introduced prevailing

Temperatures and its

anomalies

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Guidance products and NowcastServices

� WDSSII at 9 places, 2 more in

pipeline- to be installed in all

DWRs

� Nowcast for 180 cities.

� Scope-Nowcasting through

SWFDP-BoB

� Nowcast Guidance System at

NWFC from 5 October 2016.

� 24X7 Desk for Nowcast Guidance

to MC/RMC established for

issuing round the clock Nowcast

Bulletins

SWFDP - BAY OF BENGAL CTIVITIES

• Bangladesh

• India

• Maldives

• Myanmar

• Sri Lanka

• Thailand

• Bhutan (later)

• Nepal (later)

• Afghanistan (later)

• Pakistan (later)

Severe Weather from TCs,

severe thunderstorms and

monsoon:

Heavy precipitation, Strong

winds

Large waves / swell, Storm

Surge

Improved severe weather forecasting , warning services to

disaster management (PWS) and other sectoral applications

40E – 125 E 50 N – 10 S

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Severe Weather Forecast Demonstration Project

• Three tier cascading

system (global, regional

and national partners)

• Pilot mode in May 2016 for

cyclone, heavy rain, wind

and wave with RSMC, New

Delhi as Regional Centre

• Global model products

from NCEP, ECMWF,

UKMO, JMA will be

available for this domain Day 3

Day 5

Day 1 Day 2

Day 4

� Gridded daily rainfall data sets of various spatial

resolutions (0.25º X 0.25º, and 1.0º X 1.0º ) updated to

September, 2016. The data were provided to many

research groups. The data was sold to user community.

� Implemented experimental dynamical forecasting

system.

� Started issuing temperature forecast for India for the Hot

Weather Season (April to June) and for Cold Weather

Season (December to February)

� ENSO & IOD bulletins

� Under SASCOF activities, took lead role in preparing the

consensus forecast outlook for the winter, southwest and

post monsoon seasons over south Asia

CLIMATE SERVICES

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Coupled Ocean-Atmospheric Dynamical Forecasting System

Monthly and seasonal rainfall and 2m temperature anomaly maps

for the south Asia are prepared using the latest high resolution

(T382L64) research version of the coupled forecasting system (CFS)

model (Updated every month)

Ensemble size: 12 members for hindcast and

40 members for forecast

Details of forecasts period: 9 months

Lead-time: One-month lead forecasts

Period of verification: Three-month

period of hindcast: 1981-2009

List of parameters: Precipitation, T2m and SST

Details of verification: Precipitation: GPCP,

T2m: ERA40, SST: NCEP

LRF MapsGlobal SST Ano. Forecast South Asia 2m Temp. Ano. Forecast

India Rainfall Ano. Forecast

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Restructured Functional Activities(under GFCS umbrella of WMO)

• Climate Monitoring and Analysis• Climate Research and Prediction• Climate Data Management and Services• Climate Applications and User Interface• Information Technology and Scientific

Secretariat• Regional Climate Services• Training & Capacity Building on the use of

regional climate products for climate services

SASCOF meetings� SASCOF is co-sponsored by WMO and coordinated by India (unde r the

demonstration phase for a WMO RCC for South Asia)

� Participating Countries- Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhuta n, India, Maldives,Myanmar, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka.

SASCOF I-III SW Monsoon April (2010-2012) held in India

SASCOF-IV SW Monsoon April 2013 held in Nepal

SASCOF-V SW Monsoon April 2014 held in India

SASCOF-VI SW Monsoon April 2015 held in Bangladesh

SASCOF-VII NE Monsoon OCTOBER 2015 held in India

SASCOF-VIII SW Monsoon April 2016 held in Sri Lanka

SASCOF-IX NE Monsoon OCTOBER 2016 held in Myanmar

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CLIMATE PREDICTION PRODUCTS BASED ON CFS:

SEASONAL CLIMATE OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH ASIA

Consensus forecast of 2016 SW Monsoon Rainfall over South Asia (issued in April every year)

Above-normal rainfall is most likely during the 2016 southwest monsoon season (June –

September) over much of South Asia. More specifically:

• Above-normal rainfall is most likely over broad areas of central and western South Asia.

• Below-normal rainfall is most likely over eastern parts of the region and the southeastern

part of the peninsula.

• Normal rainfall is most likely over the remaining areas.

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Consensus Forecast Map: 2016 Northeast Monsoon Seas on (OND)

Normal rainfall is most likely over most parts of south Asia during the 2016 Northeast monsoon season (October – December). However, below normal rainfall is likely over some areas of southeast peninsular India, Sri Lanka and Maldives. Below normal rainfall is also likely over some areas of north and eastern parts of the region. Above normal rainfall is likely over western and northwestern parts of Pakistan and some northeastern parts of the region.

During the season, normal to slightly above normal temperatures are likely, over most parts of the region.

OND Precipitation

Climate MonitoringSpatial Maps of Climate Variables• Mean Sea Level Pressure • Maximum & Temperature Temperatures• Rainfall Mean • Wind Anomaly • Velocity Potential • Stream Function • OLR Anomaly • ENSO Indices • Indian Ocean Dipole

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CLIMATE PREDICTION PRODUCTS BASED ON CFS:

ENSO & IOD FORECAST BULLETIN (EVERY

MONTH)

REGIONAL INTEGRATED MULTI-HAZARD EARLY

WARNING SYSTEM (RIMES) FOR AFRO-ASIAN REGION

WWW.RIMES.INT

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CHAIR:INDIA REPRESENTED BY DR M RAJEEVAN, SECRETARY, MINISTRY OF EARTH SCIENCES

RIMES COUNCIL

• 1st RIMES Council Meeting was held in 2009 and 8th RIMES Council was held during 1-2 July 2016. Program Unit located at AIT Campus, Bangkok

• While 14 Countries signed the RIMES Cooperation Agreement, 19 collaborating Countries are at various stages of completing Government formalities to sign the RIMES Cooperation Agreement to become RIMES Member States.

• RIMES serves as an interface institution between Scientific and Technical institutions that generate early warning information and user institutions that apply information for decision making purposes

• End-to-end, connecting technology and vulnerable communities, and integrating early warning with preparedness, prevention, mitigation, and response domains

• Multi-hazard, seamless integration of low frequency and high impact -hazards and high frequency and low impact hazards into existing national warning systems,

• Establishment of RIMES Sub–regional hub at Papua New Guinea in 2017 , could enable to better serve in West Pacific Islands

DONEC QUIS NUNC

COUNTRIES COVERED BY RIMES PROJECTS IMPLEMENTATION

Countries covered by RIMES' projects

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LOCATED IN AIT CAMPUS, BANGKOK, THAILAND

CORE ACTIVITIES OF RIMES PROGRAM UNIT

Earthquake & Tsunami Watch ProvisionRIMES provides the following services to National Tsunami Warning Centers of Member States:• Seismic, sea level and deep ocean monitoring• Data exchange, processing and analysis, and archiving• provision of earthquake alerts and regional tsunami bulletins

Weather, Climate and Hydrological Research and DevelopmentRIMES provides the following services to National Meteorological and Hydrological Services:• Generation of localized and customized:

◦ severe weather and short-term weather information for contingency planning◦ medium-term weather information for logistics planning◦ seasonal climate outlook for longer-term resource planning and management

• Analysis of risks to climate variability and change, and identification of risk management and adaptation options

• Development of decision support tools• Development of new generation risk information products

Capacity Building in End-to-End Early WarningRIMES provides the following services to national and local level institutions within each Member States' early warning frameworks:• Assistance in establishing and maintaining observation and monitoring stations of regional benefit• Training of scientists: in-country training and through secondment arrangements at the RIMES Regional

Facility• Development of decision-support tools and their application. These include risk assessment, interpretation and

translation of early warning information products into impact outlooks and response options.• Application of tailored risk information at different time scales in decision-making• Early warning system audits• Strengthening national early warning provider and user interface

� User integration in the early warning system through multi-hazard Monsoon /SeasonalForums, which have ben introduced/ institutionalized in 15 countries ( Armenia, Bangladesh,Bhutan, Cambodia, Indonesia, Lao PDR, Maldives, Mongolia, Myanmar, Nepal, Pakistan,Seychelles, Sri Lanka, Timor-Leste, and Vietnam)

� WMO/ ESCAP Panel on Tropical Cyclones in its 43rd Session in March 2016 to leverageRIMES institutional and technical resource to integrate RSMC products into country specificimpact outlooks through capacity building of user institutions in PTC member counties . Thisinstitutional mechanism could be extended to cover WMO’s SWDP in South and South EastAsia region as well.

� WMO can leverage unique RIMES institutional resource to integrate WMO GFCS program inSouth Asian countries though the involvement of NHMS from respective project countries.

� Under an umbrella of MOU, ECMWF is providing data streams access to RIMES program unitto enable RIMES to provide customized value added services to many RIMES countries.

� 14 Member States: Bangladesh, Cambodia, Comoros, India, Lao PDR, Madagascar,Maldives, Mongolia, Myanmar, Papua New Guinea, Philippines, Seychelles, Sri Lanka, andTimor-Leste

� 5 Cooperating States - Bhutan, Mauritius, Mozambique, Nepal, and Vietnam are now at thefinal stage of Agreement approval

� Enhanced provision of weather and climate services are implemented in Myanmar and SriLanka by developing and generating 3-day, 10-day, monthly, and seasonal forecast products,and climate change projections for provision of seamless weather and climate information inresponse to user demands, and in engaging with users for forecast application

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• Enhancing provision of hydrological services

• provided to Bangladesh Water Development Board in utilizing weather and climate information forgenerating seamless flood forecast products, and in engaging with end users for reducing disaster

risks;

• Efforts are on to develop basin-scale flood forecasting systems for priority basins in Myanmar(Ayeyarwady, Sittoung, and Chindwin), Nepal (Narayani, Babai, and Karnali), and the Philippines

(Marikina-Pasig, Agno, and Pampanga), with support from the Government of India;

• Enhancing provision of ocean services,

• the integration of tsunami Service Level 3 into ocean information services for developing and

sustaining tsunami warning capacities, while building ocean information products and services inconcerned Member States - Seychelles; Maldives; Sri Lanka; Comoros

• India is supporting Integrated Ocean Information Services Program to other Indian Ocean and

South China Sea countries, in collaboration with the Indian National Centre for Ocean InformationServices (INCOIS);

• Building Service provider-user dialogues through Monsoon Forums,

• Established active Monsoon Forums in Armenia, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Cambodia, Lao PDR,Maldives, Mongolia, Myanmar, Nepal, Pakistan, Philippines, Seychelles, Sri Lanka, and Timor-Leste, which have improved and enriched interactions between NMHSs and users toward

increased forecast utilization in planning and decision-making;

• National forums have evolved into sub-national forums in Lao PDR and Myanmar;

• UN-ESCAP has been instrumental in RIMES' institutional strengthening, with its funding support for establishing institutional mechanisms and processes from 2009 to 2012, and in supporting Master Plan implementation through several capacity building projects from 2011.

• RIMES 7th Council and its Second Ministers Conference recommended that each country could mobilize resources in country in collaboration with disaster management agencies and other sector agencies to implement RIMES Master plan 2016-2020 (estimated at US $ 60 million) with technical assistance from RIMES

• RIMES GCF Accreditation Committee initiated RIMES’ GCF accreditation process, with support of GCF National Designated Authorities (NDAs) of the Governments of Maldives and Seychelles. . RIMES application submission for GCF accreditation is underway.