Upload
lafir-mohamed
View
43
Download
4
Tags:
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Disasters and evolution of CBDRM in Sri Lanka.
DIPECHO 8 – Planning , 22.04.2015, Amaya Lake, Dambulla
Sri Lanka
Sri Lanka is extremely vulnerable to hydro-meteorological hazards such as floods, cyclone, droughts, and derivative disasters such as forest fires and landslides.
This vulnerability is compounded by socio-economic conditions such as population growth, environmental degradation, investments in infrastructure in hazard prone areas and extreme weather events caused by the effects of climate change.
The tank and village culture of Sri Lanka which embraced an ecosystem based approach was well established in the country prior to the colonial period.
Cooping with climate
System was able to coop with both the conditions!
100 mm rain in 1 days (hydrological importance!)
&
10 mm/day for 10 days (agronomical importance!)
Source: Handawela, J.
DRR in Sri Lanka Since independence; GOSL established systems to
provide welfare assistance to affected people. With the declaration of the IDNDR in 1990 by the
UN, a new trend in DM started in mid 90s in Sri Lanka, including formalised provision of relief and shelter
assistance through Ministry of Social Services, and district and divisional administrations.
Initiatives have taken place such as, implementing projects attempting to incorporate
DRR into urban planning; developing guidelines for urban planning,
Land use zoning and construction in hazard prone areas; DM training and integration of DRR into school and university
curricula; Developing plans for preparedness and response for disasters
at district and divisional levels.
Tsunami 2004 and DM Act With the tsunami of 2004, the government and
the society had to take the challenge of assisting the victims.
Enactment of the Act; Sri Lanka Disaster Management Act No.13 of 2005 provides for the coordination at the highest executive level
Addresses Disaster Management (DM) holistically, leading to a policy shift from response based mechanisms to a proactive approach
Act contd..
Establishment of the institutional framework for disaster management including The National Council for Disaster Management
(NCDM), Disaster Management Centre (DMC) and
elaborates powers and functions of the institution.
The Act also recognizes the cross-cutting nature of disaster management.
Act empowers HE the President to declare state of disaster.
Implementation of the ACT
In Nov2005; Establishment of a separate ministry of Disaster Management (DMC within its preview)
In 2006; Road map for DRM – Towards a safer in Sri Lanka was developed 2006-2016
Road Map for Disaster Management2005-2015
Developed under 7 thematic areas Institutional and legal framework Early warning Hazard, vulnerability and risk
assessment Prevention and Mitigation Awareness and Training Preparedness Planning Community Based Disaster Management
Road Map for Disaster Management2005-2015
Developed under 7 thematic areas Institutional and legal framework Early warning Hazard, vulnerability and risk
assessment Prevention and Mitigation Awareness and Training Preparedness Planning Community Based Disaster Management
Climate change in Sri Lanka
Slow & continuous rise of ambient temperature (0.01 – 0.03 0C/year)
Frequent occurrence of extreme weather events Droughts & floods High intensity rains Tornado type winds Intense lightning strikes
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 201029.0
29.5
30.0
30.5
31.0
31.5
32.0
32.5
33.0
33.5
34.0
Annual Average MaxT Linear (Annual Average MaxT)
Year
Max
imu
n T
emp
erat
ure
oC
MaxT = 0.027*Yr - 21.17 (p=0.000, R2=0.422)
Annual Average Maximum Temperature (Anuradhapura)
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 201021.5
22
22.5
23
23.5
24
24.5
25
Annual Average MinT Linear (Annual Average MinT)
Year
Min
imu
m T
emp
erat
ure
oC
MinT = 0.0241*Yr - 24.276 (p=0.000, R2=0.64)
Annual Average Minimum Temperature (Anuradhapura)
TrendR2
P-Value
Dry zone
Anuradhapura
-0.233 0.41 0.00
Maha-Illuppallama
-0.099 0.09 0.027
Batticaloa -0.249 0.55 0.00
Hambantota -0.255 0.54 0.00
Mannar -0.208 0.21 0.004
• Decreasing trend almost everywhere• Significant in all cases
No of COLD DAYS and WARM DAYS
TrendR2
P-Value
Dry zoneAnuradhapura
0.395 0.27 0.00
Maha-Illuppallama
0.025 0.00 0.774
Batticaloa 0.548 0.53 0.00
Hambantota 0.547 0.56 0.00
Mannar 0.336 0.12 0.027
• Increasing trend almost everywhere• Significant in most cases
Dry zone TrendR2
P-Value
Anuradhapura -0.295 0.47 0.00
Maha-illuppallama
-0.224 0.26 0.00
Batticaloa -0.062 0.01 0.253
Hambantota -0.112 0.13 0.008
Mannar -0.159 0.26 0.001
No of COLD NIGHTS vs WARM NIGHTS
• Decreasing trend almost everywhere• Significant in all cases
• Increasing trend almost everywhere• Significant in most cases
TrendR2
P-Value
Dry zone
Anuradhapura 0.63 0.55 0.00
Mah-Illuppallama
0.187 0.13 0.009
Batticaloa 0.15 0.10 0.032
Hambantota 0.247 0.17 0.003
Mannar 0.523 0.48 0.00
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
Annual Rainfall (Anuradhapura)
Annual RF
Year
An
nu
al R
ain
fall
(m
m)
Does not show a significant trend (p=0.538)
Increase of average annual temperature of Sri Lanka in the 21st century under B2 scenario of IPCC SRES
ANNUAL TEMP
Change of annual rainfall of Sri Lanka in the 21st century under B2 scenario of IPCC
SRES
Change in Rainfall
High temperature stress
Out of 285,000 flowering plants Only about 0.4% belongs to C4 plants
Optimum temperature range for photosynthesis
C3 plants → 15 - 30 0C
C4 plants → 20 - 35 0C
We are operating at the upper margin of the optimum range
Dry zone → 29 0C Intermediate zone → 27 - 28 0C Wet zone → 26 0C
Further increase of ambient temperature due to CC
• may exceed the threshold range of optimum temperature for plant growth
Th
ese
are
on
ly
avera
ges
!!!
High intense rains
> 25 mm/hr - Erosive Soil erosion Siltation▪ Reduced capacity of downstream tanks
Local Communities - DRM
Local communities – default first responders though they cannot bear the full responsibility to manage major disasters.
Promoting disaster risk reduction and building resilience must be initiated at the community level, especially if it is to have a long-term and sustained impact
Making communities and SHs own and share the out comes of the resilient building initiatives is highly important
But the currant practice on DRM is more top to bottom and logistic centric with lack of community participation that results into failures in meeting the appropriate and vital humanitarian needs
CBDRM - Participation and Inclusion
Resilient communities are inclusive in nature.
Evaluation of CBDRM