March 3, 2022 8:28 PM

National Weather ServiceBismarck, North Dakota

North Dakota Drought BriefingSmall Area of Extreme Drought in Northwest North Dakota

Important Updates➔ Drought conditions have improved

across much of the state, primarily the central and east.

➔ Drought has been completely removed in parts of the east.

Key Messages➔ A small area of extreme drought persists

in northwest North Dakota.➔ Drought will continue across most of

western North Dakota, with little expectation for improvement in the next few months.

Next Scheduled Briefing➔ This briefing will be updated at the

beginning of April.

NEW

March 3, 2022 8:28 PM

National Weather ServiceBismarck, North Dakota

North Dakota Drought BriefingPast Conditions

Since the start of the water year (October 1st), precipitation has been up to 200% of normal, but the far northwest corner is still below average. Western and parts of central North Dakota have been warmer than average, while eastern North Dakota

has been slightly below average.

March 3, 2022 8:28 PM

National Weather ServiceBismarck, North Dakota

North Dakota Drought Briefing Potential Impacts

Climate

➔ La Niña conditions continue and will influence temperatures through the beginning of the spring season, with the entire state favored for below average temperatures during March. There is already moderate confidence in below average temperatures through the first half of the month, with a slightly more active weather pattern during this time as well. As the spring progresses, the La Niña and its influence will weaken, with equal chances for near, above, and below normal temperature and precipitation across the majority of the state through the rest of spring and into the start of summer.

Hydrology

➔ East of the Missouri River and Highway 83 corridor, continued improvement is noted with respect to drought conditions. In general, enough water in the snowpack is there to create near normal to above normal runoff. This should help boost water levels in the rivers, wetlands, and water supply features. However, west of the Missouri River and on up through Williams and Divide counties, snow cover is generally scarce and overall water content of that snowpack is below normal. At this point an above normal precipitation pattern would be needed to boost water levels in the streams and water supply features of western North Dakota. Current weather forecasts do not show a shift towards a wetter pattern for western North Dakota anytime soon.

Fire Weather

➔ Fire activity has been quite limited as of recent with the cold temperatures and many areas being snow covered, and is expected to remain so through the middle and possibly the end of March. Once the spring melt begins in earnest and the drying and curing of fuels begins, fire danger will rapidly increase. As in a typical year, southwest North Dakota will be the first area of concern, spreading north and east as the spring melt continues.

March 3, 2022 8:28 PM

National Weather ServiceBismarck, North Dakota

North Dakota Drought BriefingClimate Prediction Center (CPC) Monthly Outlook For March 2022

March 3, 2022 8:28 PM

National Weather ServiceBismarck, North Dakota

North Dakota Drought BriefingCPC Seasonal Outlook for April, May, June 2022

March 3, 2022 8:28 PM

National Weather ServiceBismarck, North Dakota

North Dakota Drought BriefingMonthly and Seasonal Drought Outlooks

March 3, 2022 8:28 PM

National Weather ServiceBismarck, North Dakota

North Dakota Drought Briefing

Summary➔ Above normal precipitation for much of North Dakota during the winter has helped improve drought

conditions across central and eastern parts of the state. Current snow cover suggests that areas east of the Missouri River and Highway 83 corridor will have near normal to above normal runoff, while drought is expected to continue for the west.

➔ March is favored for below average temperatures, due to the influence of the ongoing La Niña. Beyond that, there are no strong signals in guidance for the rest of the spring and into the start of summer.

➔ Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited through the middle and possibly end of March. Southwest North Dakota will be the first area of concern.

March 3, 2022 8:28 PM

National Weather ServiceBismarck, North Dakota

North Dakota Drought BriefingResources and Partner Links

National Drought Mitigation Center - https://drought.unl.edu/National Integrated Drought Information System - https://www.drought.gov/drought/USDA Climate Hubs - https://www.climatehubs.usda.gov/hubs/northern-plainsUS Forest Service, Wildland Fire Assessment System - https://www.wfas.net/US Geological Survey - https://waterwatch.usgs.gov/High Plains Regional Climate Center - https://hprcc.unl.edu/Midwestern Regional Climate Center - https://mrcc.purdue.edu/ND Response Burn Bans and Fire Danger Maps - https://www.ndresponse.gov/burn-ban-restrictions-fire-danger-maps/Report Drought Conditions - https://droughtreporter.unl.edu/submitreport/View Drought Reports - https://droughtreporter.unl.edu/map/

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