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Special Weather Briefing: Isaac 08/29/2012 www.srh.noaa.gov/shv/briefing. Brandi Richardson Meteorologist. National Weather Service Shreveport, Louisiana. Isaac Summary. Uncertainty Official Isaac Forecast Even further west Slowed movement H igher risk for heavy rainfall Model Data - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Special Weather Briefing:Special Weather Briefing:IsaacIsaac
08/29/201208/29/2012
www.srh.noaa.gov/shv/briefingwww.srh.noaa.gov/shv/briefing
Brandi RichardsonBrandi RichardsonMeteorologistMeteorologist
National Weather Service Shreveport, LouisianaNational Weather Service Shreveport, Louisiana
Isaac Summary Uncertainty Uncertainty Official Isaac ForecastOfficial Isaac Forecast
Even further westEven further west Slowed movementSlowed movement Higher risk for heavy rainfallHigher risk for heavy rainfall
Model DataModel Data Several models still on a more westward trackSeveral models still on a more westward track Largest impacts over N LA/S AR, but impacts into E Largest impacts over N LA/S AR, but impacts into E
TX/SE OKTX/SE OK
National Weather Service Shreveport, LouisianaNational Weather Service Shreveport, Louisiana
Current PositionCurrent PositionH
Radar ImageryRadar Imagery
Official NHC Track ForecastOfficial NHC Track Forecast
Tuesday morning
Latest trackforecast(shiftedwest)
Official Rainfall ForecastOfficial Rainfall Forecast
Locally higher totals may be possible
4-7”2-4”
1-2”
Official Forecast Official Forecast Impacts: Impacts: FloodingFlooding
N LAN LA Greatest risk for Greatest risk for
floodingflooding Wed PM-Fri AMWed PM-Fri AM
S ARS AR 22ndnd greatest risk area greatest risk area Early Thu AM-Fri PMEarly Thu AM-Fri PM
Extreme E TXExtreme E TX Wed PM-Fri AMWed PM-Fri AM Elevated risk Elevated risk
Flash
Flo
oding
Flash
Flo
oding
Possib
le
Possib
le
Official Forecast Official Forecast Impacts: Impacts: WindsWinds
9 PM Wed9 PM Wed
7 AM Thu7 AM Thu
Tropical Tropical Storm force Storm force
windswinds
N Central LA N Central LA ~40-45 mph~40-45 mph Wed night-most of Wed night-most of
Thu Thu
SW AR/SE OK SW AR/SE OK 15-20 mph15-20 mph ThuThu
Deep E TXDeep E TX 20-25 mph 20-25 mph Late Wed PM – Late Wed PM –
most of Thumost of Thu
E TX E TX 10-15 mph10-15 mph ThuThu
Official Forecast Official Forecast Impacts: Impacts: TornadoesTornadoes
Thu AM – Fri AM
N Central N Central LA/S AR LA/S AR Most at riskMost at risk Quick spin-Quick spin-
upsups Not much Not much
lead timelead time
ElsewhereElsewhere Can’t rule it Can’t rule it
out, but very out, but very low risklow risk
Watches/Warnings/Watches/Warnings/AdvisoriesAdvisories
Flash Flood Watch
7 AM Thu - 7 PM Thu
Topical Storm
WarningFlash Flood
Watch7 PM Wed - 1 PM Thu
UncertaintyUncertainty
Westward PotentialWestward Potential
Westward Case RainfallWestward Case Rainfall
Through Saturday morning
6-8”
2-4”4-6”
Potential ImpactsPotential Impacts More westward track:More westward track:
N LA/S AR N LA/S AR Heavy rainfall/flooding (5-10”) Heavy rainfall/flooding (5-10”) Greatest impact timeframe: Thu/Thu PMGreatest impact timeframe: Thu/Thu PM Winds 40-45 mph with higher gusts Wed PM-Thu Winds 40-45 mph with higher gusts Wed PM-Thu
PM for N/LA; ~25 mph with higher gusts for S ARPM for N/LA; ~25 mph with higher gusts for S AR Prime tornado threat areaPrime tornado threat area
E TX/SE OKE TX/SE OK Rainfall: 2-4” isolated 5”Rainfall: 2-4” isolated 5” Winds 25-35 mph with higher gusts Thu AM-Thu Winds 25-35 mph with higher gusts Thu AM-Thu
PMPM Tornado threat along eastern-tier counties in E TXTornado threat along eastern-tier counties in E TX
Official NHC Track ForecastOfficial NHC Track Forecast
NEXT CONFERENCE CALL:
Today August 29, 2012 @ 5:30 PMToday August 29, 2012 @ 5:30 PM
www.srh.noaa.gov/shv/briefingwww.srh.noaa.gov/shv/briefing
National Weather Service Shreveport, LouisianaNational Weather Service Shreveport, Louisiana