Drivers of ecosystem resilience: toward a predictive

understanding of hypoxia’s impact on nearshore fisheries and ecological communities

Francis Chan (PI), Kristen Milligan (co-PI), Mike Donnellan (co-PI)

Oregon Sea Grant All-Hands MeetingFebruary 17, 2010Corvallis Oregon

Motivation• Seasonal hypoxia in the nearshore is the “new normal”

• Region-wide phenomenon with strong spatial patterns

• Important pathway for climate-ecosystem impacts

• Strong public desire for information (opportunity for engaging the public on ocean issues)

• Understanding of ecological and fishery impacts limited

1950 to 1999: severe hypoxia rare, no sign of anoxia

2000 to 2005: Increase severity and prevalence of hypoxia

2006: Appearance of anoxia

Dissolved oxygen (ml l-1)

Dep

th (

m)

An ecosystem in transition?

Hypoxia is a regional-scale phenomenon

2007 NOAA FRAM, NW Fisheries Science Center Hake Survey on the Miller Freeman. S. Pierce and J. Barth

May Jun Jul Aug

OCNMS

100m

50m

Apr May Jun Jul Aug

Depth

(m

)D

epth

(m

)0

50

0

50

76543210

76543210

DO

(ml l -1)

DO

(ml l -1)

Newport

AB

C

Apr May Jun Jul Aug

But exhibits important and persistent meso-scale variability

Ann. Rev. Mar. Sci 2010

Global Change Biology 2009

Schmittner et al. Global Biogeo. Cycles 2008

current future

f

e

d

ca

b

Pre-anoxia Anoxia

Grantham et al. 2004

Hypoxia/anoxia have acute ecological and fishery impacts

Our understanding of potential fishery impacts are only now emerging

As is our understanding of ecological resilience

DATA: Gayle Murphy (OSU)

Science ObjectivesGoal 1: Develop functional response relationship between declining oxygen values and biological and fishery impacts

Goal 2: Test the influence of community and habitat attributes on ecological resilience

SH • Floren

ce

• Newport

Approaches:1)ROV surveys2)Syntheses of

oceanographic and fishery time-series

Outreach ObjectivesGoal 1: Enhance scientific research across disciplines

Goal 2: Enhance understanding for the general public and specific stakeholder groups (fishermen, resource managers…)

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

LTOP

COAST

PISCO

NOAA (Bill)

Jack/Kipp Glider

NOAA (FRAM)

MI_LOCO

Lorenzo

NOAA/Pierce (Hake)

Burke Hales

Kipp/Jeremy (crab pots)

Clare Riemers

Central Oregon hypoxia-related research

OrCOOS

Meetings and workshops:• Research exchanges (spring, fall each year)• Scoping meetings with fishing community members to

identify informational needs & knowledge exchange

Data management and products for management:• Work with PISCO Marine Ecosystem Data Manager and

ODFW to determine appropriate metadata for new surveys and data archival

• Tailored derived data products for management

Training and mentoring:• Students will be closely involved with developing

outreach plans and data analysis

Approaches

Outreach materials

Consortium of scientists:• OSU• UC Santa Cruz• Stanford• UC Santa Barbara

I. What is PISCO? Overview

Goals:• understand key dynamics of coastal ocean ecosystem along U.S. West Coast

• produce new generation of scientists trained in interdisciplinary approaches

• share knowledge for science-based decisions

Hypoxia in Pacific NWstate & federalpolicy:

• Oregon Ocean Policy Advisory Council (Aug ’06)• Dead Zone briefing for Oregon Congresswoman Darlene Hooley (Oct ’06)• Testify before U.S. House Select Committee on

Energy Dependence and Global Climate Change (Apr ’08)• Oregon House Committee on Energy and the Environment (Apr ’08)• West Coast Governors Agreement on Ocean

Health Executive Committee (Nov ’08)

1950 to 1999: severe hypoxia rare, no sign of anoxia

2000 to 2005: Increase severity and prevalence of hypoxia

Dissolved oxygen (ml l-1)

Dep

th (

m)

An ecosystem in transition?

1950 to 1999: severe hypoxia rare, no sign of anoxia

Dissolved oxygen (ml l-1)

Dep

th (

m)

Chan et al. Science 2008

An ecosystem in transition?