Draft for discussion 1

Daily Outlook Gas Day : Wednesday, 15/01/06

Todays Opening Linepack 296 mcm

Predicted Closing Linepack (PCLP1) 293 mcm

Change in Linepack -3 mcm

DEMAND

FLOWS INTO NTS

LINE PACK

Likelihood to NTS Spec. Med 2 areas

Interrupt for LDZ NSL High 3 Zones

15/02/06 LDZ Non NSL Med 6 Zones

TRANSPORTER INTERRUPTION

14/1/06GWh

15/01/06GWh

Safety MonitorGWh

Max rate (GWh/day)

Days left

Ave rate(GWh/day)

Days left

Short 1010 990 (57%) 275 (10%) 490 1 200 3

Medium 1810 1700 (43%) 340 (10%) 290 4 160 7

Long 8790 8600 (24%) 450 (10%) 420 21 380 23

STORAGE

SYSTEM ALERTS

Click here for storage monitor spreadsheet

Click here for Likelihood of interruption details

Click here for full system status report (NB92)

Click here for forecast aggregate flows report (NTSAFF)Click here for forecast aggregate flows report (NTSAPF)

Click here for forecast demand report (SISR03)

UPCOMING ISSUES

ANS WARNINGS

15/02/0614:09

15/02/0610:09

15/02/0613:09

15/02/0614:09

15/02/0614:09

15/02/0614:09

15/02/0614:09

14/02/0618:12

15/02/0610:02

Demand(mcm)

SND(mcm)

Variance(mcm)

14/01/06 Actual Demand 397 407 -10

15/01/06 Forecast Demand 417 408 9

16/01/06 Forecast Demand 421 408 13

Definitions

Linepack Graph

Click here for system alert history

Definitions

Definitions

Definitions

Definitions

Definitions

Todays Forecast Flows into the NTS 414 mcm

Todays Physical Flows into the NTS 417 mcm

Interruption Graph

NOTES

Demand / Weather Graphs

Storage Graphs

Draft for discussion 2

Daily Outlook Gas Day : Wednesday, 15/01/06

DEMAND CURVE

Entry Source (data in mcm)

14/01/06 Daily Flow

Max Flowsince 01/10/05

Min Flow since 01/10/05

Average 7 day Flow

Beach and IOG 261 331 234 300

IUK 11 28 0 12

Storage 30 68 0 28

SUPPLY SUMMARY

PRICE SAP14/01/06

SMP Buy SMP Sell 7 day average

Price (p/KWh) 1.58 1.59 1.55 1.59

Click here for NORD01 price report

Supply Graphs

Price Graph

Click here for link to met office web site

Click here for link to NTS Entry EOD report

COMPOSITE WEATHERVARIABLE (CWV)CURVE

Definitions

Definitions

Definitions

Definitions

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

01/1

0/04

15/1

0/04

29/1

0/04

12/1

1/04

26/1

1/04

10/1

2/04

24/1

2/04

07/0

1/05

21/0

1/05

04/0

2/05

18/0

2/05

04/0

3/05

18/0

3/05

mcm

normal cold actual

-4.00-2.000.002.004.006.008.00

10.0012.0014.0016.00

01/1

0/05

15/1

0/05

29/1

0/05

12/1

1/05

26/1

1/05

10/1

2/05

24/1

2/05

07/0

1/06

21/0

1/06

04/0

2/06

18/0

2/06

04/0

3/06

18/0

3/06

CWV

normal cold weather Actual

Draft for discussion 3

Daily Outlook Gas Day : Wednesday, 15/01/06

LONG RANGE STORAGE

MEDIUM RANGE STORAGE

Definitions

SHORT RANGE STORAGE

Definitions

Definitions

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

Actual Stock Firm Monitor Safety monitor forecast at max rate

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

Firm Monitor Safety Monitor Actual Stock forecast at max rate

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

Firm Monitor Safety Monitor Actual Stock Forecast at max rate

Draft for discussion 4

Daily Outlook Gas Day : Wednesday, 15/01/06

BEACH and IOG

STORAGE

INTERCONNECTOR

Definitions

Definitions

Definitions

0

10

20

3040

50

60

70

80

MCM

Storage Delivery 7 day rolling average

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

MCM

Interconnector delivery 7 day rolling average

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

01/1

0/04

15/1

0/04

29/1

0/04

12/1

1/04

26/1

1/04

10/1

2/04

24/1

2/04

07/0

1/05

21/0

1/05

04/0

2/05

18/0

2/05

04/0

3/05

18/0

3/05

MCM

Beach Delivery 7 day rolling average

Click here for link to IUK website

Draft for discussion 5

Daily Outlook Gas Day : Wednesday, 15/01/06

PRICE

LINEPACK

Definitions

Definitions

0.0000

0.5000

1.0000

1.5000

2.0000

2.5000

3.0000

3.5000

01/1

0/04

15/1

0/04

29/1

0/04

12/1

1/04

26/1

1/04

10/1

2/04

24/1

2/04

07/0

1/05

21/0

1/05

04/0

2/05

18/0

2/05

04/0

3/05

18/0

3/05

p/KW

h

SAP SMP Buy SMP Sell

260.00265.00270.00275.00280.00285.00290.00295.00300.00305.00310.00

01/1

0/04

15/1

0/04

29/1

0/04

12/1

1/04

26/1

1/04

10/1

2/04

24/1

2/04

07/0

1/05

21/0

1/05

04/0

2/05

18/0

2/05

04/0

3/05

18/0

3/05

mcm

Linepack

TRANSPORTER INTERRUPTION

Definitions

05

101520253035404550

01/1

0/04

15/1

0/04

29/1

0/04

12/1

1/04

26/1

1/04

10/1

2/04

24/1

2/04

07/0

1/05

21/0

1/05

04/0

2/05

18/0

2/05

04/0

3/05

18/0

3/05

GW

h

Total LDZ Interruption Aggregate NTS Energy