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Artificial Intelligence – Childhood Dreams or Adult Nightmares?
Dr. Stefan Wess
CEO Empolis Information Management
Kaiserslautern, Germany
Artificial Intelligenceis already part of …
… our Pop Culture
… as well as our Cultural History
Human Likenesses, Thinking Machines and Artificial Beings, Believed to Have Intelligence, Were Built or Envisioned in Every Major Human Civilization
King Mu of Zhou(Chinese: 周穆王; pinyin: Zhōu MùWáng) was the fifth king of the Chinese Zhou Dynasty. The dates of his reign are 976-922 BC.
Talos (/ˈteɪlɒs/;[1]
Greek: Τάλως, Talōs) or Talon (/ˈteɪlɒn, ən/; Greek: Τάλων, Talōn) was a giant man of bronze who protectedEuropa in Crete frompirates and invaders.
Badi'al-Zaman Abū al-'Izz ibn Ismā'īl ibn al-Razāz al-Jazarī (1136–1206) (Arabic: زاز الجزري was a Muslim polymath: a( بديع الزمان أبو العز بن إسماعيل بن الرscholar, inventor, mechanical engineer, craftsman, artist, and mathematicianfrom Jazirat ibn Umar (current Cizre, Turkey), who lived during the IslamicGolden Age.
Abu Mūsā Jābir ibn Hayyān (Arabic: جابر بن حيان ,
Persian: جابرحيان ,often given the nisbahs al-al-Bariqi, al-Azdi, al-Kufi, al-Tusi or al-Sufi; fl. c. 721 –c. 815),[5] also known as Geber, was a prominent polymath: a chemist and alchemist, astronomerand astrologer, engineer, geographer, philosopher, physicist, and pharmacist andphysician. He is referred to as the Father of earlychemistry.
I. Past: AI Technology was successful
II. Today: AI Technology is part of our daily lives
III. Future: AI Technology will shape our future
AGENDA:
Three Episodes – Three Messages
Childhood Dreams
The PastNaïve Dreams
Episode I
1979: Programming Computer Games
“It went far beyond my own capabilities, as well as beyond any existing technology ….”
My Naïve Childhood Dreams
AI Naïve Childhood Dreams
1958 Allen Newell: "within ten years, a digital computer will be the world's
chess champion“. On May 11, 1997, Deep Blue from IBM won against Chess world champion Garry Kasparov.
1965 H. A. Simon: "machines will be capable, within twenty years, of doing
any work a man can do.“January 2014, “The Second Machine Age: Work, Progress, and Prosperity in a Time of Brilliant Technologies”
Erik Brynjolfsson , Andrew McAfee
1970 Marvin Minsky: "In from three to eight years, we will have a machine
with the general intelligence of an average human being.“On January 14, 2011, IBM Watson won against Jeopardy! champions Brad Rutter and Ken Jennings.
Examples:
However…
Navigation Systems Speech Recognition Object-Oriented Programming
Business Rules
Algorithms originally developed by AI researchers began to appear as parts of successful larger IT systems. Many of AI's greatest innovations have been reduced to the status of “just
another tool” in computer science. The field of AI receives little or no credit for these successes.
“There's this stupid myth out there that AI has failed, but AI is around you every second of the day.”
- Rodney Brooks 2002
TodayArtificial Intelligence is Back
Episode II
My Dream is still Alive
Watson has created a new awareness for AI
In February 2011, IBM Watson won the live TV Show Jeopardy!against former champions Brad Rutter and Ken Jennings.
A computer system able to understand natural language and answer previously unknown real questions.
Big Datalaid the foundation
Digital Transformation creates massive amounts of data
In 2016 worldwide: 4.1 Zettabytes (Sextillion: 21 zeros)
1000 gigabytes = 1 terabyte1000 terabytes = 1 petabyte1 million terabytes = 1 exabyte
1 billion terabytes =
1 zettabyte
Source: TechNewsDaily
4,100,000,000,000,000,000,000 Bytes
How long does it take mankind to create 5 Exabyte of data?
until 2000: 2000 Years
in 2011: Two Days
in 2013: Ten Minutes
Source: C. Humbly
Image Classification Big Breakthroughs in 2012
From: Krizhevsky, Sutskever, Hinton: ImageNet Classification with Deep Convolutional Neural Networks.Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 25 (NIPS 2012).
E-CommerceOnline Recommendations
Personal AssistantsSiri, Cortana & Google Now
18Dr. Joachim Köhler
One Underlying TechnologyDeep (Machine) Learning
Dr. Joachim KöhlerR. Bardeli, D. Stein: Multimedia Analytics Course, 2015
Inspiration: Biological Neurons
An artificial neuron realizes a functionwhere
The output y is regulated by sigmoid function s:
R. Bardeli, D. Stein: Multimedia Analytics Course, 2015
Artificial Neuronsare Pure Mathematics
It solves the XOR problem!
Why is this interesting and important?
R. Bardeli, D. Stein: Multimedia Analytics Course, 2015
80
input image convolutions
subsampling full connection
output
Multilayer Perceptrons and Convolutional Neuronal Networks
Early 90s: Huge hype with Neural Networks
– Multilayer Perceptron, Time Delay Neural Networks
– Problem: Learning methods does not work: Back propagation causes local minima
– Most research groups uses GMMs, HMMs, SVM, etc. and NN were more or less “dead”
2010-2015: Revival of (Deep)NNs
– Bengio, Y., Hinton, G.: Practical recommendation for gradient-based training of deep architectures. In: Neural Networks: Tricks and Trade, pp 437 – 478. Springer (2012)
– Better learning method: Multistep Training using Restricted Boltzmann Machines
– GPU available (NvidiaCUDA library speed up of training time by factor 20 and more)
– Huge training data available (big data)
Slides from Dr. Joachim Köhler – Fraunhofer IAIS
Geoffery Hinton
Evolution of (Deep) Neural Networks
Two typical sentences from game reviews:
„I am really impressed by the AI capabilities“„The AI urgently needs to be improved!“
AI – i.e. the intelligent behavior of computer opponents is a main driver for the success of computer games.
My Childhood Dream?Still Playing Computer Games
Adult Nightmares?
The FutureOur final invention?
Episode III
“The Artificial Intelligence Race in Silicon Valley Is On”- Meghan Neal 2014
IBM, Google, Microsoft, Facebook, Apple, Netflix, Amazon ...
The Era of Smart MachinesCognitive Computing
Smart Transportation Systems will change the shape of our cities and will create a new urban lifestyle.
TransportationSelf-Driving Cars and Trucks
By using new AI tools, humans have the capability to start a new era of scientific progress, advances in medicine, health care
and a fundamentally new humanity.
Medicine, Health Care andAdvances in Science
The next generation of manufacturing robots is able to intelligently co-operate with humans.
Manufacturing andAdvanced Robotics
40% - 60% of white collar jobsare in danger of being replaced by machines.
(2011) (2014)
Obvious Question:Is AI Stealing Our Jobs?
“In medicine, law, finance, retailing, manufacturing and even scientific discovery the key to winning the race is not to compete against machines but to compete with machines.”
- Erik Brynjolfsson & Andrew P. McAfee, 2011
But what if …
… we create “full, true” Artificial Intelligence?
1960 1970 1990 2010
"Once you reach a certain level of machine intelligence, and the machine becomes clever enough, it can start to apply its intelligence to itself and improve itself." - Nick Bostrom 2014
AI - Our Final Invention?
2013 2014
Stephen Hawking 2014
Artificial intelligence could be a real danger in the not too distant future.
Bill Gates 2015
I am in the camp that is concerned about super intelligence …. and don't understand why some people are not concerned.
SUMMARYThe potential benefits are huge, but we also
urgently need Common Ethics for Artificial Intelligence
from: FLI Open Letter on Artificial Intelligence, 2015 - signed by dozens of AI experts, other scientists, entrepreneurs and investors including Musk, Hawking,
Wozniak, Gates
“There is now a broad consensus that AI research is progressing steadily, and that its impact on society is likely to increase.”
“The potential benefits are huge, since everything that civilisation has to offer is a product of human intelligence; we cannot predict what we might achieve
when this intelligence is magnified by the tools AI may provide, but the eradication of disease and poverty are not unfathomable.”
“Many economists and computer scientists agree that there is valuable research to be done on how to maximise the economic benefits of AI while mitigating
adverse effects, which could include increased inequality and unemployment.”
Childhood Dreams vs.Adult Nightmares
SCIENCE FICTION
Dr. Stefan WessCEO Empolis Information Management
Dr. Stefan Wess
Europaallee 1067657 KaiserslauternGermany
Phone +49 631 68037-15Fax +49 631 68037-77Mobile +49 172 6829549
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@StefanWess
Member of Board of Directors
