The 29th Conference ARAB-ACRAO 29 March - 3 April 2009

Comparison of Student Flow in Different Colleges of Kuwait

University Using Absorbing Markov Analysis

Dr. Shafiqah A. Al-AwadhiDr. Shafiqah A. Al-Awadhi

Deanship of Admission & Deanship of Admission & RegistrationRegistration

Kuwait UniversityKuwait University

The rapid expansion of programs, departments and colleges in Kuwait University in terms of both size and quality has had a profound impact on the entire society.

The economic and social needs associated with higher educational institutions have caused many segments of Kuwaiti public to observe the performance of these organizations with renewed and increased interest.

The higher education process demand a greater proportion of the country's financial resources.

INTRODUCTION

The questions under consideration for the study:

1) What is the probability that a student who has been admitted to any college specifically and KU generally will graduate?

2) What is the probability that a student who has been admitted to any college specifically and KU generally will withdraw?

3) What is the average life time a student spends at each level?

4) What is the probability that a student who has been admitted will transfer between colleges?

The questions under consideration for the study:

5) What are the factors that affect the student life times at any level in KU ?

6) What is the probability that a student will progress to a next level ?

7) Are there any differences between colleges in students‘ life times spent in each level?

8) Are there any differences between levels in students' life times in each college?

9) Are there any differences between probabilities of graduating and dropping out between scientific and art colleges?

The graduation process

World W/O a degree

High school graduates

KU College

From the same college

To a collegeEntering

freshmen

Graduat

e

Transfer

Exit

Student flow in Faculty of Science

Science College

Allied health

Law

Literature

Islamic studies

Social sciences

Education

Administrative Sciences

Engineering

College of Women

World without a degree

KU graduate

High School

Outside of KU

Transfer

Tran

sfer

Adm

iss

ion

Exit

Exit

academic year 1996/1997

to 2004/2005

We investigated the flow of

students in

Kuwait University via Markov

Analysis.

Science

15.9%

1100

students

Education

16.6%

Engineering

11.5%

Administrative Sciences

12.4%

Social

Sciences

7.4%

law

4.9%

Shareea’

6.2%

Medicine

2.6%

Pharmacy

0.8%

Dentist

0.5%

Allied health

3%

Arts

15.5%

sample size of each college

Credit Hours in KU

The regular registered credit hours are between 15 and 19 per semester but it

is not allowed to be less than 12 credits.

In summer semester it is allowed to be between 3 and 9 credit hours.

To graduate from different colleges are:

132 creditEducation

Arts

More than 154credit

Medical Colleges

129 creditScience

142 credit Sharee’a

144 credit Engineer

130 creditBusiness

Administration

126 creditSocial Sciences

AlliedHealth

153 credit Law

Graduate requirement

Graduate

Not registered

Dropped out

Senior>90 credit

hrs

Junior61-90 credit

hrs

Sophomore31-60 credit

hrs

Freshman< 30 credit hrs

Status

F : Freshman, a student who successfully completed less than 30 credit hours. So : Sophomore, a student who successfully completed between 31-60 credit hours.J : Junior, a student who successfully completed between 61-90 credit hours.Se : Senior, a student who successfully completed more than 90 credit hours.

G : Graduated from the Faculty of Science.

O : Dropped out or academically dismissed from Kuwait University.

NR : Not registered, perhaps to take care of personal problems, but eventually will return to the system

T : Transferred between the colleges in Kuwait University.

Each state is classified as follows:

P(Xn+1 = j | X0 = x0, ..., Xn-1= xn-1, Xn= i)

= P(Xn+1 = j | Xn = i)

= Pij

A stochastic process with the following property is called a Markov chain.

A Markov chain of 7 states is identified for the study.

kkP...

k2P

k1P

......

......

......2kP...

22P

21P

1kP...

12P

11P

P = = (Pij)

Transition probability

matrix

Canonical form of the transition matrix

QR

I 0

TlTkklPR ,:

TjiijPQ ,:

If T denotes the set of transient states

Freshmen

Freshmen

NR

Sophomore

Freshmen

Sophomore

Sophomore

NR

Junior

Junior

Out

111

21

11

11

F So J Se G NR O

F

So

J

Se

G

NR

O

Frequency transition data for the case study

1 1

1 1

2 1

1

1

1 1

2

1

1 1

1 1

1

A =∑ Si 1 + 0 + 1

….

s1

s3

s2

1 + 1+ 1 ….

….

14257540061045

0900672034021

0059157726110

0001260745611

2021291633011

000004570

000000100

F So J Se NR G O

F

So

J

Se

NR

G

O

1425 900

Frequency transition data of 1100 random sample of students from Kuwait University

GOFSoJSeNR

G1000000

O0100000

F00.020.620.33000.03

So00.0100.550.4100.02

J00.01000.490.480.02

Se0.260.010000.730

NR00.090.150.160.220.120.25

Canonical form of transition probability matrix P

U =

0.1790.821NR

0.0250.975SE

0.0480.952J

0.0820.918SO

0.1380.862F

OG

Probability matrix U

The probabilities of graduating or dropping out starting at a givenlevel for the data

M =

8.182NR

3.744Se

5.842J

8.052So

10.503F

The matrix M

The average number of semesters required for graduation starting from any levels of

study

ArtsSocialLawBus’n

sEdnShariaSciEngMedAllied

F0.560.590.610.550.550.530.710.590.500.60

So0.560.550.630.480.510.420.510.560.360.56

J0.500.520.560.460.440.430.470.490.540.44

Se0.660.650.610.630.740.650.730.780.900.71

NR0.160.430.430.150.180.170.310.290.330.00

Probabilities to remain in the transient state of each college

Data from Different Colleges

ArtsSocialLawBus’n

sEdn

Sharia

SciEngMedAllied

F2.32.52.62.32.32.23.92.52.02.3

So2.42.32.72.12.11.82.22.41.62.3

J2.12.22.41.91.81.91.92.12.21.9

Se2.92.92.62.83.93.03.84.610.43.5

NR1.31.81.81.31.31.31.71.51.61.1

Average life times of the students in each transient state

Data from Different Colleges

ArtsSocialLawBusEdnShari

aSciEngMedAllied

F0.600.910.980.800.910.770.370.770.930.69

So0.790.951.000.910.990.890.490.880.950.81

J0.850.981.000.951.000.960.780.941.000.99

Se0.901.001.000.981.000.960.940.991.001.00

NR0.720.981.000.810.970.850.450.620.940.95

The probabilities of reaching the graduate state G

Data from Different Colleges

ArtsSocialLawBusEdnShari

aSciEngMedAllied

F0.190.050.020.070.010.080.260.200.070.11

So0.180.0500.0300.040.170.100.050.05

J0.150.0200.0300.040.090.0400

Se0.09000.0200.040.030.0100

NR0.260.0200.0400.120.290.370.060.01

The probabilities of reaching the drop out O state for the 10 colleges

Data from Different Colleges

ArtsSocialLawBusEdnShari

aSciEngMedAllied

F2.282.472.592.242.242.143.522.4122.5

So2.282.222.731.932.051.732.042.251.62.3

J2.022.122.321.831.791.771.871.982.171.81

Se2.962.882.572.713.872.833.774.610.383.45

NR1.191.751.751.181.21.21.441.41.51

Average number of semesters the chain remains in transient states

Data from Different Colleges

Scientific

Art

F3.202.31

So2.252.22

J1.992.09

Se4.22.98

NR1.531.36

Mean life time in each state for Scientific and Art colleges

Comparison between Scientific and Art Colleges

Scientific colleges:- Science, Engineering and Allied Health

Art colleges:- Arts, Social sciences and Sharia (Islamic Studies)

USci =

0.1170.2940.589NR

0.0130.0150.972SE

0.0660.0550.879J

0.1900.1300.680SO

0.2250.2210.554F

TOG

The probabilities of reaching the absorbing states G, O and T for Scientific colleges

Probability matrix U

UART =

0.0120.1850.803NR

0.0000.0620.937SE

0.0010.0980.901J

0.0320.1200.849SO

0.1620.1370.701F

TOG

The probabilities of reaching the absorbing states G, O and T for Art colleges

Probability matrix U

Discussion and Conclusions

A freshman student remains for an average of 2 to 3 semesters except in college of science where it is about 4 semesters .

At senior level where the course is comparatively tougher the life time varies in each college. For students in colleges of

Medical sciences, Engineering, Education and Science, the life times are

comparatively high (more than 4 semesters) .

Discussion and Conclusions

The most common reasons for the lengthy life times are:

i) Most of the students take preliminary non-creditcourses in English, Mathematics and Chemistry ii) The regular credit hours suppose to be registered by a student should be between 15 and 19 credit hours but the average registered credit hours for a student in KU is calculated and is about 13 credit hours.

iii) The minimum GPA for graduation is 2.0 and many students can not achieve this GPA to graduate so they repeat some courses with grade less than C to increase GPA.

iv) Each college has its own rules and conditions for transferring, such as taking certain courses and requiring a certain GPA.

Discussion and Conclusions

Among the freshman students in the colleges of Arts, Sharia, Business Administration, Engineering, Allied Health and Science, the graduation percentages ranges between 60% and 80%, while that of Social sciences, Law, Education, and Medical Sciences it ranges between 90% and 98% .

It was found that a student in the scientific colleges stays on average 3 semesters in freshmen state while in arts colleges a student stays on average only 2 semesters.

Discussion and Conclusions

This lengthy life time in the scientific colleges was observed for each of the

states which implies that the average time that a student spends in the system is more

than that in the art colleges.

To avoid such situations, KU should take necessary actions for reducing the drop out

from scientific colleges. They can either raise the minimum admission requirement

of high school grade or give a course counseling for the students at the time of

admission so that the students can reduce their over strain in the studies.

Recommendations

The lower rate of graduation of the senior students might require an investigative effort at the course

levels so as to pinpoint the courses or group of courses which have high flunking rate.

A parallel investigation of the admission policies might be warranted

Encourage science high school graduates to enter scientific colleges

Allocate a special allowance to employees graduates from the scientific colleges college of scientific

colleges

Orient 9th and 10th graders towards the science option

The 29th Conference of ARAB-ACRAOs March 2009

Comparison of Student Flow in Different Colleges of Kuwait

University Using Absorbing Markov Analysis

Dr. Shafiqah A. Al-AwadhiDr. Shafiqah A. Al-Awadhi

Deanship of Admission & Deanship of Admission & RegistrationRegistration

Kuwait UniversityKuwait University

THANK YOUTHANK YOU

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