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Dr Robert KayNot Business as Usual
CLIMATE CHANGE POPULATION
ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE ROBOTICS
2021 2026 2031 2036 2041
Potential change in the nature of the workforce
Non-routine cognitive
Change & Adapt
Effective business as usual capability
In the short-term can you take the punch….
In the long term can you dodge it?
Shaping
Effective business as usual capability
Change & Adapt
Reinvention
Less than10% 10-20% 21-30% More than
30% Unspecified
Proportion of organisational resources dedicated to resilience
Shaping organisations
25
10
20
15
0
5
No.
of C
EOs
N=50
Good governance is a team activityTeam = Board and ELT
But there is a problem with team decision
making….
Joukossa tyhmyys tiivistyy
In a group, stupidity condenses
What are the characteristics of a good
governance team?
independent mindset
openess to alternatives
trustdiversity of skills & experience
willingness to question
Sweet Spot
Blind SpotGroupThink
Suppressionof alternative
views
Team decision making exceedsthat of the individual
Individual decision makingmore effective than team Average performance
Superior performance
Exploit
Board
CEO
ExploreExplore Governance
Stage-gated Pipeline
Stakeholdermanagement
Protected Budget
90 Day cycles of experimentation
GM GM
Manager4
Manager3
Manager2
Manager 1
With people at your table….
What proportion of your revenue should be quarantined for Explore – or is it a set amount?
Who makes that decision?
Opportunities Gate 1Initial filter
Gate 2Stakeholdermapping
Gate 3PrototypingDesign
Gate 4Field study
Gate 5Testing
Gate 6Implementation
20 - 30 10 - 15 6 112No. of ideas/Year
90 days 90 days 90 days 90 days 90 days 90 daysEvaluation Cycle time
Stage gate criteria
% of Explore funding 0% 5% 10% 30% 40% 15%
Decision making body Executive Executive Board Board Board Board
• Is it functional?
• Cost to trial?
• Stakeholder can be influenced?
• Resistant stakeholders?
• Consistent with strategic goals?
• Add to reputation?
• Size of opportunity?
• Do customers respond as expected?
• Are costs as expected?
• ROI?
• Is it reliable?
• Can staff adjust?
• Risk mgt?
• Unexpected costs?
“It should be borne in mind that there is nothing more doubtful of success, and more dangerous to carry through... The Innovator makes enemies of all those who prospered under the old order, and only lukewarm support is forthcoming from those who would prosper under the new”.
Niccolo Machiavelli, (1516).
