Dr. Anke Mueller-Solger IEP Lead Scientist CALFED Science ...Jul 27, 2009 · Dr. Anke Mueller-Solger. IEP Lead Scientist. CALFED Science Program. July 27, 2009

Dr. Anke Mueller-SolgerIEP Lead ScientistCALFED Science ProgramJuly 27, 2009

What isthe IEP?

(History)

What is IEP Science?

(What we do now)

How does IEP “feed into”

other efforts?

N

SuisunBay

San PabloBay

Sacramento River

San Joaquin

River0 20

Kilometers

0 200 20

Kilometers

Sacramento

Mossdale

Antioch

San Francisco

Bay

Stockton

SWP1967

CVP1951

What isthe IEP?

(History)

Testimony at 1969-70 SWRCB Water Rights Hearings:•

“Fish and wildlife problems”

in the estuary

•

SWP & CVP may contribute Need studies to

•

Understand fish and wildlife resource requirements •

Find ways to minimize SWP & CVP impacts

1970 MOA

USBR

USFWS

DWR

DFG

Interagency EcologicalSTUDIES

Program (IESP)

1970-1982:

Focused studies to allow “full”

water project development (with Peripheral Canal)

1982-90s:

Monitoring and studies to meet regulatory requirements & evaluate effects of project operations, fish facilities, barriers

1993:

Program review –

reorganization, IEP2000s:

Pelagic Organism Decline (POD) study

focus

Future?

Integrated Environmental Assessments (Socio- Ecological Science) –

System shifts, B.O.s, BDCP (P.C.!)

1970 MOA

Current Program:2000 MOU;

6 Federal & 3 State Agencies

+ SFEI, CALFED,CVRWQCB;

~ $30 M

What isthe IEP?

What isIEP Science?

(What we do now)



IEP Mission: Provide information on the factors that affect ecological resources in the Sacramento -San Joaquin Estuary that allows for more efficient management of the estuary.

No

“Science”No

“Science”

What isIEP Science?

(What we do now)

What isIEP Science?

(What we do now)

Long-Term Cooperation

Modeling??? Communication

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Research

Long

-Ter

m

Coo

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tion

Dr. IEP-ScienceMeet

Modeling??? Communication

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Research

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tion

Dr. IEP-Sciencedoes

science!

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Dr. IEP-Sciencedoes

science!


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Dr. IEP-Sciencedoes

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--

MONITORING& MODELING


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ReviewIEP Monitoring:•

Long-term

•

Cooperative•

Consistent

•

Mostly Mandated“News journalism”

2005:Pelagic Organism Decline (POD)

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2008: POD fish continue to declineSource DFG long-term Fall MW Trawl monitoringNo sampling 1974 and 1979

Delta Smelt

0.0

0.3

0.6

0.9

1.2

1.5

1.8

66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08

(Tho

usan

ds)

Abu

ndan

ce In

dex

Longfin Smelt

02

46

810

1214

1618

20

66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08

(Tho

usan

ds)

Abu

ndan

ce In

dex

Striped Bass

0

5

10

15

20

66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08

(Tho

usan

ds)

Abu

ndan

ce In

dex

Threadfin Shad

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08

(Tho

usan

ds)

Abu

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dex

Lowest

Lowest

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Introduced species dominatee.g. CentrarchidsData Source: USFWS long-term Juvenile Fish Monitoring ProgramPublished in Moyle and Bennett, PPIC 2008 (Fig. 2D)

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IntroducedNative

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

75 80 85 90 95 00 05Year

Abu

ndance (n

umbe

r/m

3 )Introduced species dominate

e.g. Introduced mysidsData Source: DFG long-term zooplankton monitoring (EMP)

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Introduced species dominatee.g. Corbula, Grizzly BayData Source: DWR-USBR long-term benthos monitoring (EMP)

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Nitrogen increased,SPM, TP, & Chl

a decreased

Data Source: DWR-USBR long-term WQ monitoring (EMP)Published in Jassby, SFEWS 2009

Chlorophyll aChlorophyll a

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-0.35

-0.25

-0.15

-0.05

0.05

0.15

0.25

0.35

C3 D4 D7 D6 D8 D26 D28A MD10 P8 C10

-9

-7

-5

-3

-1

1

3

5

7

9

Central & South Delta

North Delta& Suisun Bay

a) Ammonium

Col

umns

: Med

ian

Con

cent

ratio

n(m

g N

L-1

)

Sym

bols

: Tre

nd M

agni

tude

(% y

ear-1

)Median Concentration Uptrend NS Trend Downtrend

Ammonium-N increasede.g. Ammonium-N concentrationsData Source DWR-USBR long-term WQ monitoring (EMP)

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IEP Monitoring:•

Long-term

•

Cooperative•

Consistent

•

Mostly Mandated•

SFE, Delta & Suisun focus

•

Mostly channels & bays•

Continuous to semi-annually

•

Variables:•

Fish

•

Jellyfish•

Zooplankton

•

Benthos•

Phytoplankton

•

Nutrients, D.O., pH, Turbidity•

Salinity/EC, Temperature

•

Flow

NOT:•

Microbes*•

Toxicity & Contaminants*•

Wetlands•

Plants*•

Vegetated Edges/Shore*•

Fish Condition** Pilots with POD

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IEP Monitoring:•

Long-term

•

Cooperative•

Consistent

•

Mostly Mandated•

… but also evolving:

Better information,Responsive to new needs

ModelingModeling

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IEP Monitoring:•

Long-term

•

Cooperative•

Consistent

•

Mostly Mandated

New survey designsNew analyses & modeling New variablesNew toolsNew vesselsNew people

October Workshop!

•

… but also evolving:Better information,

Responsive to new needs

New survey designs

Benthic semiannual “distributed”

surveys

(GRTS design)

Fish surveys: north Delta, larval smelt

6 new stations

2007-2011135 sites/survey

New variablesWater Toxicity

•Hyalella azteca•Striped bass•Delta smelt

Contaminants•Pyrethroids•Ammonia

Toxic Algae

Mortality in 15 of 693 water samples (2.2%)

Hyalella azteca

Significant Hyalella MortalityToxicity Monitoring Site

2006-7

Mortality in 2 of 71 water samples (3%)

Delta smelt

Significant Delta Smelt Mortalitynot due to turbidity, EC

Toxicity Monitoring Site

2006-7

Toxic blooms:•

Low streamflow

•

High water temperature (25°C+)•

Stable conditions

•

Nutrients?•

2007&08 were worst bloom years on record

Summer Microcystis blooms in the Delta

New analyses & modeling

Delta smelt & longfin smelt abundance

estimates

POD-NCEAS groupsSeptember 8-9

Workshop!

New analyses

& modeling

May Workshop!


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-- RESEARCH

“Investigative journalism”

“Special Studies”

September Workshop

IEP Science Advisory Group

CALFED Science Reviews


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•

Fish Facilities •

Monitoring Technologies

Since 2005IEP POD Investigations

2009 POD Workplan: 54 studies,

> 100 scientists,~ $12 million

Problems: bond freezes, furloughs, contracting

ModelingModeling

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ResearchWhat, why, how?

POD Conceptual Model

Sommer

et al, Fisheries 2007

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IEP POD Investigations

PHYSICAL &

CHEMICAL FISH

HABITATPRIOR FISH ABUNDANCE

HOMEHOME

PARENTSPARENTSFISH

ABUNDANCE

TOP-DOWN

BOTTOM-UP

FOODFOOD

LOSSLOSS

FISH ABUNDANCE

PHYSICAL &

CHEMICAL FISH

HABITATPrior Fish Abundance

TOP-DOWN

BOTTOM-UP

WaterDiversions

Predation

Food availability Food quality

Temperature Turbidity SalinityContaminants

Disease

Toxic algae

FISH ABUNDANCE

PHYSICAL &

CHEMICAL FISH


TOP-DOWN

BOTTOM-UP

FISH ABUNDANCE

PHYSICAL &

CHEMICAL FISH


TOP-DOWN

BOTTOM-UP

Emerging POD Story:“Regime Shift”

FISH ABUNDANCE

PHYSICAL &

CHEMICAL FISH


TOP-DOWN

BOTTOM-UP

FISH ABUNDANCE

PHYSICAL &

CHEMICAL FISH


TOP-DOWN

BOTTOM-UP

Many Causes,Many Consequences

LotsHigh

Constant, lowHigh

LimitedWarmLow

Invasives dominateEdge & benthic fish, jellyfishClams, small copepodsMicrocystis, aquatic weeds

LittleLow

Highly variableLowLotsCoolHigh

Natives dominatePelagic fishLarge copepods, mysidsDiatoms

Ammonium Contaminants

Outflow“Harvest”

PhosphorusTemperature

Turbidity

Not stable

POD investigations of many causes, many consequences continue…

FISH ABUNDANCE

PHYSICAL &

CHEMICAL FISH


TOP-DOWN

BOTTOM-UP

FISH ABUNDANCE

PHYSICAL &

CHEMICAL FISH


TOP-DOWN

BOTTOM-UP

FISH ABUNDANCE

PHYSICAL &

CHEMICAL FISH


TOP-DOWN

BOTTOM-UP

FISH ABUNDANCE

PHYSICAL &

CHEMICAL FISH


TOP-DOWN

BOTTOM-UP

…

more emphasis on “shift”

drivers & mechanisms and “return”

options

Resilience, Thresholds, Hysteresis, Stochasticity,…Integrated Environmental Assessment


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COMMUNICATION


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Conferences & Workshops

•

Publications and Reports•

IEP Website –

redesign!

•

IEP Data portals –

update!•

IEP Newsletter –

rejuvenation!

•

Conferences & Workshops•

Publications and Reports

•

IEP Website –

redesign!•

IEP Data portals –

update!

•

IEP Newsletter –

rejuvenation!

2009 IEP workshop series:•

May 26-27: Physical Modeling & Fish Management (with SAG review)

•

June 25: Monitoring & Food Web•

August 18-19: Ammonia Summit

•

September 8-9: POD-NCEAS “Systems Ecology”

Modeling Results

•

October: Bay-Delta monitoring questions and tools for the 21st century

Related workshops:•

CALFED, March 10-11: Ammonia Research Framework

•

HSG, June 18: HSG Study Concept•

CALFED, August 6: 2-Gates Review

•

CALFED, Fall 2008: HSG Study Plan Review

CALFEDScience ProgramSupport, coordinate, synthesize, review science


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IEP

How does IEP feed into other efforts?

CALFEDScience Program


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IEP

Other Eco Science Programs, Councils, Alliances…


IEP


• Is the Delta ecosystem healthy?• What stressors affect Delta water and environmental quality?

New IEP Website!


IEP


Thanks!Thanks!

Documents

Dr. Anke Mueller-Solger IEP Lead Scientist CALFED Science ...Jul 27, 2009 · Dr. Anke Mueller-Solger. IEP Lead Scientist. CALFED Science Program. July 27, 2009