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Region
No. of
countries
Total Average
break
size
50s-
60s
70s 80s 90-
00s
Total Average
break
size
50s-
60s
70s 80s 90-
00s
Total upbreaks 140 221 6.8% 52 46 56 67 122 4.4% 24 25 37 36
Industrial countries 1/ 37 49 4.9% 17 7 12 13 20 4.7% 9 2 5 4
Emerging Asia 22 40 5.2% 7 12 9 12 28 5.5% 5 11 6 6
Latin America and Caribbean 28 44 6.0% 12 9 14 9 28 8.1% 5 5 11 7
Africa and Middle East 53 88 9.3% 16 18 21 33 46 6.0% 5 7 15 19
Total downbreaks 140 234 -6.7% 36 82 58 58 131 -6.0% 12 69 31 19
industrial countries 1/ 37 63 -5.1% 5 28 10 20 33 -4.3% 2 21 1 9
Emerging Asia 22 36 -6.0% 5 11 9 11 22 -5.2% 2 11 5 4
Latin America and Caribbean 28 50 -5.7% 11 15 16 8 29 -5.8% 1 14 12 2
Africa and Middle East 53 85 -8.8% 15 28 23 19 47 -7.7% 7 23 13 4
1/ Includes Japan, Korea, Singapore, Hong Kong SAR and Taiwan Province of China.
Note: Critical value for breaks tests set to 0.25, rather than 0.10 as in main text.
Minimum segment = 5 Minimum segment = 8
Table A1. Growth Breaks by Decade and Region
2
10 years 16 years 10 years 16 years
Industrial countries 1/ 37 23 11 52 13 7 16.1 71 29
Emerging Asia 22 15 15.1 67 40 9 12.1 44 11
Latin America and Caribbean 18 14 10.5 43 21 7 13.3 57 29
Africa and Middle East 43 30 6.8 10 7 5 8.2 0 0
Other developing 2/ 20 13 10.1 31 15 7 11.3 43 14
Industrial countries 1/ 37 18 24.5 94 67 12 27.2 100 75
Emerging Asia 22 13 17.1 54 31 13 22.6 100 62
Latin America and Caribbean 18 5 17.8 80 60 5 16.8 100 60
Africa and Middle East 43 23 10.6 57 13 19 14.4 84 26
Other developing 2/ 20 11 21.4 73 64 8 18.4 100 63
Industrial countries 1/ 37 41 17 71 37 19 23.1 90 58
Emerging Asia 22 28 16 61 36 22 18.3 77 41
Latin America and Caribbean 18 19 12.4 53 32 12 14.8 75 42
Africa and Middle East 43 53 8.5 30 9 24 13.1 67 21
Other developing 2/ 20 24 15.3 50 38 15 15.1 73 40
1/ Includes Japan, Korea, Singapore, Hong Kong SAR, and Taiwan Province of China.
2/ Middle East, North Africa, Cyprus, Turkey, and Caribbean countries.
Note: Critical value for breaks tests set to 0.25, rather than 0.10 as in main text.
Complete spells
Incomplete spells
Total
No. of
countries
No. of
spells
Mean
duration % of spells lasting
at least
Table A2. Frequency and Duration of Growth Spells
Minimum length of spell: 5 years Minimum length of spell: 8 years
No. of
spells
Mean
duration % of spells lasting
at least
3
before during after
before
start
after
end before during after
before
start
after
end
Industrial countries 1/ 1.2 5.5 0.2 1 -0.1 3 4.9 0.5 2.8 1.6
Emerging Asia -1.2 5 -1.1 -2 -1.7 0.8 6.2 0.7 1.5 0.9
Latin America and Caribbean 0.5 4.4 -0.4 0 -0.7 1.4 4.7 -0.5 1.3 -1.5
Africa and Middle East -1.7 7.3 -2.5 -2.8 -2.7 -1.7 8.8 -3.6 -8.1 -5.5
Other developing 2/ -1.8 5.4 -2.3 -1.3 -2.6 -1.6 5 -1.1 -1.4 -2.1
Industrial countries 1/ -0.9 4.3 -1.9 0.3 4.9 -0.6
Emerging Asia 0.3 5.4 0.5 0 4.5 -0.5
Latin America and Caribbean -2.5 2.9 -3.7 -1.2 3.6 -1.9
Africa and Middle East -4.2 6.7 -6 -3.1 5.2 -6.7
Other developing 2/ -2.3 5.7 -3.1 -2.1 4.4 -3.8
1/ Includes Japan, Korea, Singapore, Hong Kong SAR, and Taiwan Province of China.
2/ Middle East, North Africa, Cyprus, Turkey, and Caribbean countries.
Note: Critical value for breaks tests set to 0.25, rather than 0.10 as in main text.
Incomplete spells
Average growth
Minimum length of spell: 5 years
Average growth 3 years …
Table A3. Average Growth Before, During and After Growth Spells
3 years …
Minimum length of spell: 8 years
Complete spells
4
Model Variable time ratio p value time ratio p value
1 Terms of trade growth 2/ 1.00 0.77 1.01 0.41
US interest rate change 3/ 1.13 0.48 1.13 0.15
First lag of the US interest rate change 0.65 0.03 0.74 0.00
Spells/failures
1/ All regressions control for initial income per capita.
2/ Expressed in percentage points; increase means terms of trade improvement.
3/ Change in the average annual 3 month treasury bill rate, in percentage points.
Note: Critical value for breaks tests set to 0.25, rather than 0.10 as in main text.
84/33
5-year minimum spell
Table A4: External Shocks and Boom Size 1/
144/90
8-year minimum spell
5
8-year minimum spell
Model Variable time ratio p value time ratio p value
1 "Polity2" (Polity IV database)
Inititial level 1.10 0.06 1.06 0.01
Change within spell 1.11 0.04 1.08 0.03
Spells/failures
2 Polity 2 (Polity IV database) 1.12 0.00 1.07 0.00
Spells/failures 121/76
3 Democracy (Polity IV database) 1.17 0.03 1.11 0.01
Spells/failures 122/77
4 Autocracy (Polity IV database) 0.78 0.00 0.87 0.00
Spells/failures 122/77
5 Executive recruitment (Polity IV database) 1.30 0.02 1.16 0.01
Spells/failures 122/77
6 Executive constraints (Polity IV database) 1.40 0.01 1.23 0.00
Spells/failures 122/77
7 Political competition (Polity IV database) 1.26 0.00 1.15 0.00
Spells/failures 122/77
8 Investment profile (ICRG) 1.91 0.02 1.21 0.17
Spells/failures
1/ Regressions control for terms of trade shocks, US interest changes, and initial income.
Note: Critical value for breaks tests set to 0.25, rather than 0.10 as in main text.
47/9 72/29
Table A5. Institutions 1/
75/31
114/73
75/31
75/31
75/31
70/30
75/31
75/31
5-year minimum spell
6
Model Variable time ratio p value time ratio p value
Inequality (Gini coefficient)
1 Initial level 0.94 0.20 0.93 0.00
Change within spell 1.05 0.45 0.99 0.75
Spells/failures 65/39
2 Inequality (Gini coefficient) 0.93 0.04 0.95 0.00
Spells/failures 84/54
3 Ethnic fractionalization (Alesina et al., 2003) 0.98 0.13 1.00 0.49
Spells/failures 141/88
4 Ethnic fractionalization (Alesina et al., 2003) 0.97 0.03 1.00 0.71
Inequality (Gini coefficient) 0.96 0.23 0.95 0.00
Spells/failures
1/ Regressions control for terms of trade shocks, US interest changes, and initial income.
Note: Critical value for breaks tests set to 0.25, rather than 0.10 as in main text.
44/22
Table A6. Duration Regressions: Inequality and Fractionalization 1/
84/54
33/15
44/22
83/33
8-year minimum spell 5-year minimum spell
7
Model Variable time ratio p value time ratio p value
1 Primary education (Barro-Lee; years)
Initial level 1.29 0.40 1.47 0.05
Change within spell 5.12 0.00 1.76 0.13
Spells/failures
2 Secondary Education (Barro-Lee; years)
Initial level 2.82 0.22 2.70 0.07
Change within spell 20.74 0.00 1.81 0.23
Spells/failures
3 Adult mortality (males; deaths per 100)
Initial level 0.97 0.51 0.96 0.00
Change within spell 1.07 0.38 1.00 0.87
Spells/failures
4 Child mortality (deaths per 100; WDI)
Initial level 0.83 0.04 0.90 0.00
Change within spell 0.74 0.04 0.73 0.00
Spells/failures
5 Telephone mainlines per 100 people (WDI) 1.01 0.06 1.00 0.01
Spells/failures
1/ Regressions control for terms of trade shocks, US interest changes, and initial income.
Note: Critical value for breaks tests set to 0.25, rather than 0.10 as in main text.
68/22 120/71
67/22 111/61
Table A7. Duration Regressions: Social and Physical Indicators 1/
73/43
74/44
112/66
34/17
34/18
64/20
8-year minimum spell 5-year minimum spell
8
Model Variable time ratio p value time ratio p value
1 Bank Deposits (percent of GDP)
Initial level 1.05 0.11 1.02 0.05
Change within spell 1.06 0.04 1.05 0.00
Spells/failures
2 Private Credit (percent of GDP) 2/
Initial level 1.02 0.56 1.00 0.62
Change within spell 1.04 0.11 1.02 0.01
Spells/failures
3 Bank deposits (percent of GDP) 1.02 0.16 1.02 0.00
Spells/failures
4 Private credit (percent of GDP) 1.01 0.23 1.02 0.00
Spells/failures
1/ Regressions control for terms of trade shocks, US interest changes, and initial income.
2/ Private Credit by Deposit Money Banks and Other Financial Institutions.
Note: Critical value for breaks tests set to 0.25, rather than 0.10 as in main text.
Table A8. Duration Regressions: Financial Development 1/
52/18
52/18
75/28
8-year minimum spell 5-year minimum spell
75/28 121/72
87/47
87/47
121/72
9
Model Variable time ratio p value time ratio p value
1 Trade Liberalization (Wacziarg-Welch Dummy Variable)
Initial level 6.86 0.00 7.63 0.00
Change within spell 4.52 0.01 4.26 0.00
Spells/failures
2 Trade Openness (Based on PWT data, adjusted for structural characteristics)
Initial level 1.00 0.69 1.00 0.79
Change within spell 1.01 0.48 1.00 0.43
Spells/failures
3 Financial Integration (Sum of External Assets and Liabilities 2/)
Initial level 1.01 0.54 1.00 0.57
Change within spell 1.00 0.07 1.00 0.95
Spells/failures
4 External debt liabilities 2/)
Initial level 1.01 0.68 1.00 0.69
Change within spell 0.99 0.03 1.00 0.18
Spells/failures
5 FDI liabilities (Lane and Milesi-Ferretti database 2/)
Initial level 1.02 0.55 1.01 0.38
Change within spell 1.10 0.02 1.05 0.01
Spells/failures
1/ Regressions control for terms of trade shocks, US interest changes, and initial income.
2/ Lane and Milesi-Ferretti (2007).
Note: Critical value for breaks tests set to 0.25, rather than 0.10 as in main text.
73/39
Table A9. Duration Regressions: Globalization 1/
44/12
44/12
106/71
122/69
73/39
73/39
56/28
73/25
44/12
8-year minimum spell 5-year minimum spell
10
Model Variable time ratio p value time ratio p value
1 Current Account Balance (percent of GDP, WDI and IFS)
Initial level 1.24 0.11 1.07 0.30
Change within spell 1.17 0.10 1.12 0.04
Spells/failures
2 Domestic Savings (percent of GDP, WDI)
Initial level 1.02 0.50 1.03 0.01
Change within spell 0.99 0.82 1.02 0.08
Spells/failures
3 Overvaluation (residual of cross-sectional regressions of price levels on PPP GDP per capita)
Initial level 0.98 0.02 1.01 0.10
Change within spell 0.98 0.00 1.00 0.82
Spells/failures
4 Manufacturing exports/Total exports (percent, WDI)
Initial level 1.01 0.47 1.02 0.05
Change within spell 1.04 0.00 1.02 0.03
Spells/failures
5 Sophistication of exports (Hausmann, Hwang and Rodrik, 2007)
Initial level 7.04 0.09 4.21 0.00
Change within spell 6.49 0.07 6.44 0.00
Spells/failures
6 "Open Forest" (Hausmann, Rodriquez and Wagner, 2006). 2/
Initial level 1.42 0.30 1.64 0.00
Change within spell 1.72 0.07 1.64 0.01
Spells/failures
1/ Regressions control for terms of trade shocks, US interest changes, and initial income.
Note: Critical value for breaks tests set to 0.25, rather than 0.10 as in main text.
Table A10. Regressions: Current Account Competitiveness and Export Structure 1/
2/ Sophistication of exports of other countries weighted by country "proximity" to these exports based on frequency with which good-pairs
are exported by the same country.
54/26
96/54
134/83
72/42
97/58
97/58
44/21
56/21
56/21
34/8
51/18
79/33
8-year minimum spell 5-year minimum spell
11
Model Variable time ratio p value time ratio p value
1 Log (1+inflation)
Initial level 0.97 0.33 1.00 0.81
Change within spell 0.97 0.17 0.99 0.01
Spells/failures
2 Log(1+depreciation in the parallel exchange rate)
Initial level 0.95 0.00 0.99 0.04
Change within spell 0.97 0.00 0.98 0.00
Spells/failures
3 Log(1+moderate inflation) 2/
Initial level 1.00 0.98 0.92 0.00
Change within spell 0.98 0.56 0.93 0.00
Spells/failures
4 Average growth within spell 0.85 0.00 0.87 0.00
Spells/failures
5 Log (1+inflation)
Initial level 0.98 0.40 1.00 0.86
Change within spell 0.96 0.11 0.99 0.00
Average growth within spell 0.83 0.00 0.87 0.00
Spells/failures
6 Log(1+depreciation in the parallel exchange rate)
Initial level 0.97 0.03 0.99 0.01
Change within spell 0.97 0.00 0.98 0.00
Average growth within spell 0.78 0.07 0.83 0.00
Spells/failures
7 Debt/GDP change within spell
Average growth withing spell 0.97 0.07 0.98 0.00
Log (1+inflation) 0.61 0.01 0.79 0.00
Initial level 1.04 0.59 1.00 0.94
Change within spell 1.00 0.98 0.99 0.02
Spells/failures
1/ Regressions control for terms of trade shocks, US interest changes, and initial income.
2/ Observations with inflation in excess of 50 percent per annum replaced by missing values.
Note: Critical value for breaks tests set to 0.25, rather than 0.10 as in main text.
49/12 77/39
137/84
59/35
130/82
81/32
32/19
144/9084/33
81/32
32/19
74/30
8-year minimum spell 5-year minimum spell
137/84
59/35
Table A11. Duration Regressions: Macroeconomic Volatility 1/
12
Model Variable time ratio p value time ratio p value
1 Log (1+inflation) (percent, change within spell) 1.00 0.94 0.99 0.07
Inequality (Gini coefficient) 0.94 0.01 0.95 0.01
Autocracy (Polity IV database) 0.83 0.03 0.88 0.03
Trade Liberalization (Wacziarg-Welch Dummy Variable) 2.78 0.06 1.93 0.11
Overvaluation 0.99 0.15 1.00 0.56
External debt liabilities 2/) 1.00 0.22 1.00 0.16
FDI liabilities (Lane and Milesi-Ferretti database 2/) 1.05 0.07 1.02 0.11
Terms of trade growth 1.01 0.72 1.01 0.55
First lag (US interest rate change) 0.80 0.19 0.79 0.03
Initial level of income percapita 1.00 0.99 0.90 0.00
P 1/ 1.03 0.21 0.99 0.13
Spells/failures
2 Log (1+inflation) (percent, change within spell) 1.00 0.69 0.99 0.04
Inequality (Gini coefficient) 0.95 0.01 0.98 0.27
Autocracy (Polity IV database) 0.90 0.15 0.97 0.69
Trade Liberalization (Wacziarg-Welch Dummy Variable) 3.17 0.01 1.68 0.18
Open Forest (Hausmann Rodriquez and Wagner 2006) 2.06 0.00 1.35 0.12
External debt liabilities 2/) 1.00 0.12 1.00 0.09
FDI liabilities (Lane and Milesi-Ferretti database 2/) 1.05 0.03 1.02 0.21
Average growth within spell 0.72 0.02 0.85 0.05
Terms of trade growth 1.00 0.95 1.01 0.46
First lag (US interest rate change) 0.85 0.17 0.78 0.02
Initial level of income percapita 0.85 0.03 0.90 0.00
P 1/ 1.49 0.30 1.10 0.15
Spells/failures
Note: Critical value for breaks tests set to 0.25, rather than 0.10 as in main text.
1/ P is the shape parameter in the Weibull distribution λ=ptp-1
. The p-value is for the null hypothesis that p=1 (implying that the hazard is duration independent).
Table A12. Summary Regressions
8-year minimum spell 5-year minimum spell
38/20 71/43
37/19 64/38
13
Model
log
likelihood
LR test
Chi2 1/
p-value pseudo R-
squared 2/
h = 5
Full Model 2, Table 12 -67.23 0.21
Only average growth within spell and initial income p.c. -79.83 25.21 (0.00) 0.06
Only initial income per capita -85.10 35.75 (0.00) 0.00
None (pure duration model) -85.22 35.98 (0.00) …
h = 8
Full Model 2, Table 12 -29.12 0.70
Only average growth within spell and initial income p.c. -44.54 30.84 (0.00) 0.47
Only initial income per capita -46.23 34.21 (0.00) 0.45
None (pure duration model) -47.42 36.59 (0.00) …
Note: Critical value for breaks tests set to 0.25, rather than 0.10 as in main text.
Table A13. LR-Tests and pseudo R -squared
1/ Test comparing full model 2 to smaller nested models. Bold indicates rejection of nested models at
2/ Defined as 1 - L1/L0, where L1 is the log likelihood of the corresponding model and L0 of the pure
14
8-year minimum spell 5-year minimum spell
Variable
Weibull Log-
logistic
Log-
normal
Weibull
w . anc.
param.
Weibull Log-
logistic
Log-
normal
Log (1+inflation) 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99
0.69 0.74 0.72 0.05 0.04 0.13 0.17
Inequality 0.95 0.97 0.97 0.98 0.98 0.99 0.98
0.01 0.17 0.18 0.34 0.27 0.55 0.45
Autocracy score 0.90 0.91 0.90 0.98 0.97 1.02 1.02
0.15 0.20 0.10 0.80 0.69 0.80 0.76
Trade Liberalization 3.17 3.96 4.05 1.62 1.68 1.72 1.74
0.01 0.01 0.00 0.22 0.18 0.21 0.21
Open Forest 2.06 2.03 1.94 1.31 1.35 1.41 1.42
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.16 0.12 0.14 0.16
External debt liabilities 1.00 0.99 0.99 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
0.12 0.29 0.18 0.09 0.09 0.19 0.29
FDI liabilities 1.05 1.05 1.05 1.02 1.02 1.02 1.01
0.03 0.02 0.02 0.19 0.21 0.22 0.29
Av. Grow th w ithin spell 0.72 0.70 0.69 0.86 0.85 0.85 0.85
0.02 0.01 0.01 0.07 0.05 0.09 0.09
Terms of Trade Change 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.01 1.01 1.01 1.01
0.95 0.87 0.99 0.48 0.46 0.39 0.37
U.S. Interest Rate Change 0.85 0.85 0.82 0.78 0.78 0.78 0.77
0.17 0.16 0.12 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.03
Initial Income Per Capita 0.85 0.87 0.87 0.90 0.90 0.89 0.90
0.03 0.11 0.18 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Constant 0.04 0.01 0.02 1.78 1.76 0.38 0.42
0.16 0.18 0.24 0.85 0.85 0.78 0.82
Ancillary Parameter (1) 2/ 1.49 0.52 0.92 -0.02 1.10 0.68 1.17
p value 3/ 0.05 0.00 0.64 0.24 0.51 0.01 0.20
Ancillary Parameter 4/ 0.25
p value 0.18
Spells/failures 37/19 64/38
Note: Critical value for breaks tests set to 0.25, rather than 0.10 as in main text.
Table A14. Duration Dependence and Robustness with Respect to Functional Form 1/
4/ Refers to intercept a of function ln(p) = a +b t for Weibull w ith ancillary time parameter; p-value refers
to test that a = 0.
1/ Reestimation of model 2 from Table 12. Time ratios and p-values show n, except for Cox, w here hazard
2/ Refers to time coeff icient b of function ln(p) = a +b t for Weibull w ith ancillary time parameter; to shape
3/ Refers to test that time coeff icient b = 0 in case of Weibull w ith time parameter; that shape parameter p
15
8 year minimum spell 5 years minimum spell
Variable
Log-
logistic
Log-
logistic
with frailty
(observati
on level)
Log-
logistic
shared
frailty
(country
level)
Log-
logistic
Log-
logistic
with frailty
(observati
on level)
Log-
logistic,
shared
frailty
(country
level)
Log (1+inflation) 1.00 … 0.98 0.99 0.99 …
0.74 … 0.00 0.13 0.13 …
Inequality 0.97 … 1.02 0.99 0.99 …
0.17 … 0.23 0.55 0.55 …
Autocracy score 0.91 … 0.87 1.02 1.02 …
0.20 … 0.00 0.80 0.80 …
Trade Liberalization 3.96 … 2.58 1.72 1.72 …
0.01 … 0.01 0.21 0.21 …
Open Forest 2.03 … 1.84 1.41 1.41 …
0.00 … 0.00 0.14 0.14 …
External debt liabilities 0.99 … 1.00 1.00 1.00 …
0.29 … 0.75 0.19 0.19 …
FDI liabilities 1.05 … 1.04 1.02 1.02 …
0.02 … 0.03 0.22 0.22 …
Av. Growth within spell 0.70 … 0.65 0.85 0.85 …
0.01 … 0.00 0.09 0.09 …
Terms of Trade Change 1.00 … 1.00 1.01 1.01 …
0.87 … 0.72 0.39 0.39 …
U.S. Interest Rate Change 0.85 … 0.78 0.78 0.78 …
0.16 … 0.00 0.03 0.03 …
Initial Income Per Capita 0.87 … 1.00 0.89 0.89 …
0.11 … 0.99 0.00 0.00 …
Constant 0.01 … 0.00 0.38 0.38 …
0.18 … 0.01 0.78 0.78 …… …… …
Scale parameter g 0.52 … 0.19 0.68 0.68 …
p value 2/ 0.00 … 0.00 0.01 0.01 …
Spells/failures
2/ Refers to test that g = 1.
Note: Critical value for breaks tests set to 0.25, rather than 0.10 as in main text.
Table A15. Frailty Regressions(time ratios and p-values shown)
1/ Columns empty because regression failed to converge.
37/19 64/38
16
8-year minimum spell 5-year minimum spell
Model Variable p value p value
Model 2 Log (1+inflation) (percent, change within spell)1.00 0.69 0.99 0.04
Inequality (Gini Coefficient) 0.95 0.01 0.98 0.27
Autocracy score (scale 0 to 10) 0.90 0.15 0.97 0.69
Trade Liberalization (0-1 dummy) 3.17 0.01 1.68 0.18
Open Forest 2.06 0.00 1.35 0.12
External debt liabilities (percent of GDP) 1.00 0.12 1.00 0.09
FDI liabilities (percent of GDP) 1.05 0.03 1.02 0.21
Average Growth within spell (percent) 0.72 0.02 0.85 0.05
Terms of Trade Change (percent) 1.00 0.95 1.01 0.46
U.S. Interest Rate Change (points) 0.85 0.17 0.78 0.02
Initial Income Per Capita (in thousands) 0.85 0.03 0.90 0.00
Spells/failures
Log (1+inflation) (percent, change within spell)1.00 0.90 0.99 0.04
Inequality (Gini Coefficient) 0.97 0.30 0.98 0.50
Autocracy score (scale 0 to 10) 0.89 0.08 0.97 0.67
Trade Liberalization (0-1 dummy) 2.38 0.07 1.54 0.30
Open Forest 2.65 0.00 1.35 0.22
External debt liabilities (percent of GDP) 1.00 0.16 1.00 0.10
FDI liabilities (percent of GDP) 1.05 0.03 1.02 0.20
Average Growth within spell (percent) 0.70 0.00 0.83 0.04
Terms of Trade Change (percent) 1.00 0.68 1.01 0.47
U.S. Interest Rate Change (points) 0.89 0.28 0.79 0.03
Initial Income Per Capita (in thousands) 0.85 0.03 0.90 0.00
Latin America (dummy) 0.50 0.26 0.75 0.59
Subsaharan Africa (dummy) 1.92 0.34 0.95 0.94
Spells/failures
Log (1+inflation) (percent, change within spell)1.00 0.37 0.99 0.02
Inequality (Gini Coefficient) 0.96 0.13 0.98 0.49
Autocracy score (scale 0 to 10) 1.01 0.92 0.97 0.71
Trade Liberalization (0-1 dummy) 2.36 0.10 1.61 0.28
Open Forest 1.73 0.01 1.20 0.45
External debt liabilities (percent of GDP) 1.00 0.72 1.00 0.23
FDI liabilities (percent of GDP) 1.02 0.18 1.02 0.35
Average Growth within spell (percent) 0.66 0.00 0.82 0.04
Terms of Trade Change (percent) 1.01 0.64 1.01 0.34
U.S. Interest Rate Change (points) 0.93 0.35 0.79 0.05
Initial Income Per Capita (in thousands) 0.94 0.39 0.93 0.06
Spells/failures
Note: Critical value for breaks tests set to 0.25, rather than 0.10 as in main text.
Table A16. Robustness to regional dummies and to dropping Asian observations 1/
time
ratio
time
ratio
(reproduced
from Table 12)
37/19 64/38
26/12 52/31
1/ Regressions control for terms of trade shocks, US interest changes, and initial income.
Model 2 with
regional
dummies
37/19 64/38
Model 2 w/o
Asian
observations
