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Don’t Panic!. A Critique of Catastrophic Man-Made Global Warming Theory. Five Key Climate Questions. Is the world warming? Is that warming due to man’s CO 2 ? Will future man-made warming be substantial? Will we see catastrophic effects from warming? - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Don’t Panic!A Critique of Catastrophic Man-Made
Global Warming Theory
2
Five Key Climate Questions
• Is the world warming?
• Is that warming due to man’s CO2?
• Will future man-made warming be substantial?
• Will we see catastrophic effects from warming?
• Do CO2 abatement laws like AB32 make sense?
3
Historic Temperature Record Shows Warming of About 0.6C
Glo
bal
Tem
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Source: Hadley CRUT3, UAH
Orange line is a centered 60 month moving average
4
Where's The Acceleration?Temperatures Have Been Flat for a Decade
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010-0.2
-0.1
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
Source: UAHGlo
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5
Urban Growth Biases Temperatures UpwardsHalf or More of Measured Temperature Increases May Be Due to Urban Biases
1950-2000 California Temperature Change, Celsius
Source: LaDochy, 2007
0.99
0.34
Urban Rural
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Many Rural Stations Have Upwards BiasTahoe City, CA
Trash burned within 5 feetNearby tennis courtSurrounding parking lot and carsReflective metalNearby buildings
7
Five Key Climate Questions
• Is the world warming?– Yes, but historic record likely overstated, and there has
been no warming in last 10 years
• Is that warming due to man’s CO2?
• Will future man-made warming be substantial?
• Will we see catastrophic effects from warming?
• Do CO2 abatement laws like AB32 make sense?
8
Early Ice Core Studies Seemed to Have Found the Smoking Gun
CO2 appeared to be a strong driver of global temperatures…
Source: IPCC AR4
9
More Careful Measurements Have Reversed the Findings
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Early IPCC Reports Found Current Temperatures to be Unexceptionable
Reconstructed temperature anomalySource: IPCC, 1990 AR1
11
The Key IPCC AR4 “Proof” of CO2 Impact was the Hockey Stick Chart
Source: IPCC AR4
12
The Inflection Point Occurs At The Junction of Two Unrelated Data Sets
Removing the Grafted Instrumental Data Eliminates the Hockey Stick
13
The Proxies Quickly Diverge From the Instrumental Record
Divergence
Briffa data truncated to hide divergence
14
Two 51-Year Periods: Which Is Man,And Which is Mother Nature?
One Period is 1895-1946 (“nature”) and the other Period is 1957-2008 (supposedly “Anthropogenic”)
15
Key Anthropogenic Fingerprints Are Missing
-0.2
-0.1
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
South
Pole
South
Exotro
pic
s
Tro
pic
s
North
Exotro
pic
s
North
Pole
Actual Predicted
Mid-troposphere temperature above the tropics should rise the most, but has not
Temperature increases do not come close to matching IPCC AR4 model predictions
Temperature anomaly, Celsius, mid-troposphere temperatures. Source: UAH
16
Sun Has Been Unusually Active in Last 50 Years
Mo
nth
ly S
un
spo
t N
um
ber
Trailing 10.8 Year Avg. Sunspot Number
Avg. Monthly Sunspots 1900-1949: 48Avg. Monthly Sunspots 1950-1999: 73
17
The Pacific Decadal Oscillation Has An Enormous Effect on Temperatures
Source: Hadley CRUT3, UAH
PDO Cool PDO Warm PDO Cool PDO Warm
Glo
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18
Five Key Climate Questions
• Is the world warming?– Yes, but historic record likely overstated, and there has
been no warming in last 10 years
• Is that warming due to man’s CO2?– Likely “some,” but probably not “most”
• Will future man-made warming be substantial?
• Will we see catastrophic effects from warming?
• Do CO2 abatement laws like AB32 make sense?
19
IPCC Forecast for Temperature Increase due to CO2 Alone is Not Catastrophic
200 300 400 500 600 700 800(6.0)
(4.0)
(2.0)
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
Atmospheric CO2, PPM
Tem
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ncr
ease
, C
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∆T = F(C2) – F(C1)Where F(c) = Ln(1+1.2c+0.005c2+0.0000014c3)
Feedback = 0
Today
20
Catastrophic Forecasts Come From Positive Feedback, Not CO2 Alone
200 300 400 500 600 700 800(6.0)
(4.0)
(2.0)
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
Atmospheric CO2, PPM
Tem
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ncr
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, C
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Feedback = 0
Feedback = 60%
Feedback = 75%
Feedback = 87%
Today
21
Positive Feedback is Unusual for Long-Term Stable Natural Processes
Negative Feedback Positive Feedback
Disturbances are damped System remains near its starting
point, though it can oscillate
Disturbances are amplified System may end up far from its
starting point
22
200 300 400 500 600 700 800(6.0)
(4.0)
(2.0)
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
Atmospheric CO2, PPM
Tem
per
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ncr
ease
, C
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High Feedbacks Greatly Over-Predict Past Warming
Feedback = 0
Feedback = 60%
Feedback = 75%
Feedback = 87%
TodayPre-Industrial
0.6CObservedWarming
{
23
In 1988, James Hansen's Speech to Congress Showed Good Fit Between His Climate Models and History
June, 1988
Actual
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Hansen Scenario A
24
James Hansen's 1988 Forecast to Congress Was Grossly Exaggerated
August 2008 was .3C below June 1988 rather than projected .5C above
Hansen Scenario A
Actual
Tem
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25
Five Key Climate Questions
• Is the world warming?– Yes, but historic record likely overstated, and there has
been no warming in last 10 years
• Is that warming due to man’s CO2?– Likely “some,” but probably not “most”
• Will future man-made warming be substantial?– Perhaps a degree, at most, over the next century
• Will we see catastrophic effects from warming?
• Do CO2 abatement laws like AB32 make sense?
26
No Upward Trend In Droughts...
27
And No Upward Trend In Wet Weather
28
No Upward Trend in Hurricane or Cyclonic Activity
29
Glaciers Have Been Retreating far Longer than We Have Emitted CO2
Source: Oerlemans, et al, 2005
30
North Pole Ice “All-Time Low” on Same Day as South Pole All-Time High
Source: University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign Polar Research Institute
31
Five Key Climate Questions
• Is the world warming?– Yes, but historic record likely overstated, and there has
been no warming in last 10 years
• Is that warming due to man’s CO2?– Likely “some,” but probably not “most”
• Will future man-made warming be substantial?– Perhaps a degree, at most, over the next century
• Will we see catastrophic effects from warming?– Likely not – we have not seen them so far
• Do CO2 abatement laws like AB32 make sense?
32
Global Warming is Sucking The Oxygen Out of the Environmental Movement
Other emissions that are more harmful that still need to be addressed
Driving environmentally stupid behavior (e.g. subsidizing corn ethanol)
Many other areas where more impact possible for less money
33
Problems with the Precautionary Principle
Insurance makes no sense when the premiums are higher than the value of what you are insuring
Costs are going to be enormous to really make any kind of impact at all Europeans have $8-$9 gas and they are not any where near
20% by 2050 type goals California has the lowest per capital electricity use of any
state BUT CA has the 8th highest electricity prices CA has the 10th smallest industrial sector (as measured by percent
of electric demand to industrial users) CA has the 1st mildest climate (as measured by Cooling + Heating
degree days)
There is no free lunch on CO2 abatement
34
Warmer and Richer or Cooler and Poorer?
Every 10x increase in per capita CO2 output increases life expectancy by 15 years
35
A Plea for Sanity: A Carbon Tax Far Better than Cap and Trade
Carbon tax much simpler to administer (the California BOE could do it in their sleep). Emissions accounting is a nightmare
Cap and trade is a lobbyist’s dream Nearly infinite space for influence peddling, special
deals, exemptions, etc. European cap and trade systems are fraught
with faulty accounting Politicians like cap and trade because it allows
them to tax without appearing to tax. Have some guts and go with a straight carbon tax.
36
Five Key Climate Questions
• Is the world warming?– Yes, but historic record likely overstated, and there has
been no warming in last 10 years
• Is that warming due to man’s CO2?– Likely “some,” but probably not “most”
• Will future man-made warming be substantial?– Perhaps a degree, at most, over the next century
• Will we see catastrophic effects from warming?– Likely not – we have not seen them so far
• Do CO2 abatement laws like AB32 make sense?– Costs far more than it helps. Many more important
priorities. Carbon tax preferred over cap-and-trade.
Don’t Panic!
38
Notes / SourcesSlide 3: Temperature history through 1979 from the Hadley CRUT3 surface temperature database. After 1979,
temperatures are from the UAH satellite data set. These two data sets have different base periods for their anomaly. To reconcile them, the avg UAH anomaly for its first 60 months of data was normalized against the Hadley CRUT3 data for the same period, resulting in an addition of 0.1C to all UAH anomalies. UAH data is here: http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/t2lt/uahncdc.lt. Hadley CRUT3 data is here: http://www.junkscience.com/MSU_Temps/CRUglobal.csv
Slide 5: LaDochy, S., R. Medina, and W. Patzert. 2007. Recent California climate variability: spatial and temporal patterns in temperature trends. Climate Research, 33, 159-169.
Slide 6: This is one example site survey from www.SurfaceStations.org. Anthony Watts presentation to CIRES/UCAR in 2007 describing the survey process and results can be found at http://gallery.surfacestations.org/UCAR-slides/index.html
Slide 8: From figure TS.1 and figure 6.3 of the Fourth IPCC Climate Assessment
Slide 9: This result has been confirmed by many studies, resulting in lag values of 800-2000 years, and the basic finding is not in dispute. One example was Lowell Stott, Axel Timmermann, Robert Thunell: "Southern Hemisphere and Deep-Sea Warming Led Deglacial Atmospheric CO₂ Rise and Tropical Warming" Science, 2007
Slide 10: IPCC first climate assessment, 1990
Slide 11: IPCC fourth climate assessment, 2007 (also slides 12 and 13)
Slide 14: Hadley CRUT3 global surface temperature record. Both graphs are scaled exactly the same (in fact are crops from the same image). The graph on the left is 1957-2008. The graph on the right is 1895-1946
Slide 15: The left graph is from the UAH mid-troposphere data series for the tropics (http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/t2/uahncdc.nt). The right side is from two sources. The forecast is an interpolation of the contour maps from the IPCC fourth assessment. The actuals are from the UAH mid-troposphere data set.
39
Notes / SourcesSlide 16: International sunspot number by month,
ftp://ftp.ngdc.noaa.gov/STP/SOLAR_DATA/SUNSPOT_NUMBERS/MONTHLY. The moving average is a trailing 128 month average, roughly corresponding to 10.8 years or the average 20 th century sunspot cycle length
Slide 17: Same sources as slide 3
Slide 19: The formula is from the IPCC fourth assessment, and represents estimated global temperature increase for a given concentration of CO2.
Slide 20: The non-feedback formula is from the IPCC fourth assessment. Feedback calculations by author, and are based on the formula: G=1/(1-f) where G is the total gain or multiplier and f is the percentage feedback. Feedbacks f>1 result in infinite gains. Feedback 1>f>0 are positive feedbacks that accelerate or intensify a process. Feedback f<0 is negative feedback that damps or slows a process.
Slide 22: Analysis by author based on slides 19 and 20. CO2 levels from LawDome (historic ice cores) and Mauna Loa (modern / current)
Slide 23&24: Actuals same source as slide 3. Forecast from appendices to “Statement of Doctor James Hansen, Director, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies” before Congress June 23, 1988. http://image.guardian.co.uk/sys-files/Environment/documents/2008/06/23/ClimateChangeHearing1988.pdf. Hansen’s Scenario A was chosen for comparison because it’s CO2 production assumptions most closely match actuals (it assumes 1.5% emissions growth, whereas actuals have been about 1.6% growth)
Slide 26&27: National Climate Data Center. http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/2008/jul/uspctarea-wetdry-svr.txt
Slide 28: Florida State University hurricane center, http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/tropical/
Slide 29: J. Oerlemans, “Extracting a Climate Signal from 169 Glacier Records” Science Vol. 308, No. 5722, pp. 675-677, 29 April 2005.
40
Notes / SourcesSlide 30: University of Illinois Champaign-Urbana Polar Research Group,
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/
Slide 33: Data on California Electricity Use from the Energy Information Administration, http://www.eia.doe.gov/a-z_index/Energya-z_a.html
Slide 34. Gapminder.com