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Doncaster Housing Evidence Base End of Quarter 4 2009/10 Report

Contents Doncaster Summary Neighbourhoods Summary National Indicators Market Information Housing Management Information Neighbourhood Breakdowns Sustainability Index

Doncaster Summary

The mean house price for the borough is £135,600 (based on sales and valuations over the last 3 months), compared to a regional average of £171,800.

The lower quartile house price in Doncaster is currently £86,300, compared to a regional average of £100,300.

The average house price to earnings ratio is currently 4.9:1 (based on data from the latest Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings and sales and valuations over the last 12 months). The regional house price to earnings is 5.7:1

The mean household income in Doncaster is £31,144 (CACI 2009). The average salary is £22, 776, compared to a regional average of £23,504

The cost of renting an average 2 bed flat in Doncaster is £106 pw (based on median rents) the cost of buying a 2 bed house is £98 pw (based on the cost of buying with an 85% mortgage over 25 years).

In 2009, there were 13,487 people on the Housing Register in Doncaster, compared to 10,763 in 2002.

In 2008-09 the net housing completion in Doncaster was 498. This is 297 lower than 2007-08 and 732 below RSS targets.

In March 2010 there were 4620 amount of empty properties in Doncaster, 2469 have been empty for over 6 months.

Between 2001 and 2008 the population in Doncaster is estimated to have grown by 4700 which is a 1.6% increase. Over the same period the regions population grew by 5.1%

22.3% of the working age population in Doncaster are economically inactive compared to a national average of 21.4%.

The unemployment rate in Doncaster is 6.1% with 2.6% of the population claiming Job Seekers Allowance (JSA). This is higher than the national average of 5.4% unemployment and 2.3% claiming JSA

63.1% of pupils in Doncaster achieve 5+ A* - C grades at GCSE, this is below the national average of 65.6%, but above the regional average of 62.2%

Violent crime against a person has fallen 34% between 2007 and 2009 in Doncaster (from 8494 to 5576). Burglaries to dwellings has also fallen 17% between 2007 and 2009.

Neighbourhoods Summary

Ward Name Average

Price

Price Change 2 yrs

Affordability ratio

% of Borough’s

Empty Properties

Turnover (% of total stock)

Adwick 102,319 -1.6 3.83 5.3% 1.18%

Askern Spa 146,263 6.1 4.47 4.9% 1.57%

Bentley 92,896 -5.4 3.44 12.1% 1.32%

Great North Road

127,235 -4.2 4.06 1.0% 2.55%

North

Sprotbrough 207,500 5.5 5.19 1.0% 1.92%

Armthorpe 117,402 -10.4 3.61 2.0% 2.55%

Edenthorpe, Kirk Sandall and Barnby

Dun

138,504 -8.3 3.88 0.2% 1.87%

Hatfield 131,908 8.3 3.86 1.8% 1.64%

Stainforth and Moorends

124,560 -15.7 4.03 2.5% 0.91%

East

Thorne 129,010 -5.3 4.22 3.1% 2.06%

Bessacarr and Cantley

185,141 1.1 5.11 2.1% 2.11%

Finningley 190,683 -5.7 4.72 0.6% 2.50%

Rossington 114,259 -5.6 3.58 4.9% 2.04% South

Torne Valley 207,101 -3.6 5.61 0.4% 2.35%

Conisbrough and Denaby

£108,873 -4.5 4.03 2.0% 1.20%

Edlington and Warmsworth

£103,092 -10.8 3.43 6.6% 1.78% West

Mexborough £91,416 -9.1 3.52 8.2% 1.48%

Balby £119,282 -4 3.56 4.1% 2.40%

Central £85,344 -13.6 3.19 17.6% 1.68%

Town Moor £116,512 -10.9 3.93 4.7% 2.19% Central

Wheatley £101,215 -8.9 3.84 15.0% 1.48%

National Indicators

The table below shows a range on NI and performance information.

National Indicator Position

NI 5 Overall / general satisfaction with local area

69.3% - below the target of 70% but above the 2006/07 position of

67%

NI 116 Proportion of children in poverty 22.7% in 2007/08

NI 117 16 to 18 year olds who are not in education, employment or training (NEET)

7.66% in 08/09 – fallen from a baseline position of 12% in

05/06

NI 141 Percentage of vulnerable people achieving independent living

71.3 (Q3 09/10) – above target of 69%

NI 152 Working age people on out of work benefits

17.3% - above the national average of 12.6%

NI 153 Working age people claiming out of work benefits in the worst performing neighbourhoods

31.5%

NI 154 Net additional homes provided 498 – on target for 08/09

NI 155 Number of affordable homes delivered (gross)

121 – above target for 08/09

NI 156 Number of households living in temporary accommodation

7 (Q3 09/10) – fallen from 34 in same Q last year

NI 158 % non-decent council homes 53% 08/09

NI 187 Tackling fuel poverty – % of people receiving income based benefits living in homes with a low energy efficiency rating

12.14% - not meeting target of 11.9%

Market Information

House prices in Doncaster vary greatly across the borough, however the simple average house price is currently £135,600 (based on sales and valuations over the last three months), compared to a regional average of £171,800. Similarly the lower quartile house price in Doncaster is currently £86,300, compared to a regional average of £100,300.

The number of bedrooms is also a key determinant of price, current average prices in Doncaster by bedrooms count and property type are as follows:

1 bedroom flat - £42,800 2 bedroom flat - £83,700 2 bedroom house - £95,200 3 bedroom house - £117,000 4 bedroom house - £198,300

House Price Change

Over the past two years house prices have fallen 1% in Doncaster, however this low number masks the real fall in property values in the borough. This is down to the quantity of flats/terraced being sold or valued now as opposed to two years ago, when many more first time buyers where entering the market. The sample size of traditional first time buyer properties has decreased, as the market has

fallen, but the sample size of larger family properties has remained quite consistent as have the prices, this will have caused the overall figure to have remained at a consistent level.

Type % Change Detached - 3.9% Semi - 6.2% Terrace -10.4% Flats -18.1%

The above information highlights the need to further interrogate data to establish the true effects of the market down turn. Affordability

The house price to earnings ratio in Doncaster is currently 4.9:1 based on data from the latest Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings and sales and valuations over the last 12 months. The regional house price to earnings is 5.7:1

Note This chart shows the number of households in different household income bands in the areas (bars) compared to the lower quartile price for different property types in the same area (horizontal lines). The diagonal lines rising from left to right show the value of property that can be afforded at different income multiples by a first time buyer and former owner occupier. The affordability calculations are based on a multiple of the average household

income adjusted by the average loan to value for the different types of buyer (see macro-economic trends > Loan to Value for the latest figures). The house price data is based on data from the Hometrack Automated Valuation Model and the incomes data is supplied by CACI. Further details on these sources are available in the Help and Information Section.

Note This table shows the percentage of households priced out of the market in the area. The analysis differentiates between house types and whether or not the purchasers are first time buyers. This is a modelled figure which is derived from the house price and income assumptions in the ‘graph’ section of this analysis. The figures displayed are simply derived from incomes and house prices and do not account for the existing tenures of local residents. The house price data is based on data from the Hometrack Automated Valuation Model and the incomes data is supplied by CACI. Further details on these sources are available in the Help and Information section

The above table and graph show the numbers of first time buyers and owner-occupiers priced out of the market. It shows that first time buyers need an income of around £15,000 - £20,000 to cross the threshold to purchase an average terraced property. The vertical bars to left of where the lines cross show the numbers within the income brackets priced out of the market Although the average household income in Doncaster is £31,144 the average salary is £22,776. This means that many household will require a dual income to be able to afford anything above the average terraced property. Furthermore there are over 32,000 single person households in Doncaster and over 8,000 lone parent households. These households are generally located around the central areas and may be unable to afford housing in other areas. Whilst Doncaster does not have such a sever housing affordability problem as some other cities in the region, housing is still unaffordable to many households 37.61% of first time buyers are unable to buy an average semi detached house. Furthermore whilst on an income to house price ratio housing may look affordable many people

may struggle with finding the large deposits that are now required to secure a mortgage. New Build

The average price of a new build flat in Doncaster is currently £97,800, compared to a regional average of £115,500. This has fallen from £125,574 (Doncaster) in 2007, showing a decline in interest in the new build flat market. Similarly the average price of a new build house in Doncaster is currently £171,700, also this has declined from £177,401 in 2007 is it not as significant as the decline in the flat market.

Housing demand

Market Housing

Properties in Doncaster take on average 9.9 weeks to sell after 8 viewings, compared to the regional average of 11.1 weeks and 9.2 viewings. This seems to suggest that the housing market in Doncaster is more buoyant than other parts of the region; however properties are only achieving on average 91.7% of their asking price, compared to the regional average of 93.6%. In 2009 there were 2,046 property sales in Doncaster. This equates to 1.7% of the private housing stock turning over, compared to a regional average of 1.8%. 165 of the 2046 sales were new build. This will be of concern to property developers. Interventions are needed to attract buyers to buy build properties so that building rates and sales can increase, bringing new development and regeneration to Doncaster. Social Housing

In 2009, there were 13,487 people on the Housing Register in Doncaster, compared to 10,763 in 2002. Whilst part of this rise my be due to the effect of the credit crunch, the number of people on the housing waiting list is always subject to fluctuations. This is due to the fact that people need to reregister on the list or they are removed, resulting in peaks and troughs throughout the year.

Housing Supply

The number of dwellings built in Doncaster is far fewer homes than RSS targets and this has further deteriorated over the past couple of years. However this is also the case for many other areas in the region as property values and sales have fallen.

New Dwellings Built in Doncaster

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Net Housing Completions

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Net Housing Completions

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Net Housing Completions

2008-2009 (AMR 2009)

RSS Target (2008-2026) (RSS)

Difference to RSS targets 08/09

Change from

06/07 -08/09

% change 06/07-08/09

Barnsley 944 1154 862 1015 -153 -82 -8.69%

Doncaster 697 795 498 1230 -732 -199 -

28.55%

Rotherham 457 526 603 1160 -557 146 31.95%

Sheffield 1604 2486 2507 1425 1082 903 56.30%

Housing Management Information THIS SECTION WILL BE ADDED FOR Q1 2010

Neighbourhood Breakdown North

Average Property Prices in the North

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Doncaster (MD)

Askern Spa Ward

Adw ick Ward

Bentley Ward

Sprotbrough Ward

Great North Road Ward

With the exception of Sprotbrough average property prices in the north of Doncaster are similar or less than the average prices for the borough on the whole. The Sprotbrough Ward has an average house price of £207,500, which is £71,900 higher than the borough average. Bentley has the lowest average property prices in the north at £92,896, which is £42,704 below average. East

Average Property Price in East

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Armthorpe Ward

Hatfield Ward

Stainforth andMoorends Ward

Thorne Ward

Edenthorpe, KirkSandall andBarnby Dun Ward

Property prices in the East area generally similar to the Doncaster average. Armthorpe has the lowest average property prices in the east at £117,402, which is £18,198 below average.

Within the East of the borough property prices have fluctuated most in Stainforth and Moorends. Prices rose to £149,699 in 2008 and fell to £108,855 in 2009. This could be due to the impacts of the credit crunch, but could also be due to an influx of new properties and developments in the area between 2008 and 2009. South

Average Property Prices in South

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Bessacarr andCantley Ward

FinningleyWard

Rossington

Torne Valley

With the exception of Rossington average property prices in the south of Doncaster are more than the average prices for the borough on the whole. The Torne valley Ward has an average house price of £207,101, which is £71,501 higher than the borough average. Rossington has the lowest average property prices in the south at £114,259, which is £21,341 below average.

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Edlington andWarmsworthWard

Conisbroughand DenabyWard

MexboroughWard

The average property prices in all wards in the west of Doncaster are lower than the borough average. The Mexborough Ward has an average house price of £91,416, which is £44,181 lower than the borough average. Low property prices can be reflective of low demand in the area as well as poor quality stock. Central

Average Property Prices in Centre

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Doncaster(MD)Town MoorWardBalby Ward

Central Ward

Wheatley

The average property prices in all wards in the centre of Doncaster are lower than the borough average. The Central Ward has an average house price of £85,344, which is £50,256 lower than the borough average. Low property prices can be reflective of low demand in the area as well as poor quality stock.

Sustainability

The above maps shows the overall ranking of Doncaster LSOAs in terms of their sustainability and the number of times each LSOA appears in the least sustainable 10%. North

The least sustainable areas in the north of Doncaster are: Carcroft, Highfields and Parts of Sprotbrough. The sustainability index not only highlights areas of concern due to poor quality housing and poverty but also unaffordable housing and access to services. The maps below will pick up on much of this detail. East

The least sustainable areas in the East of Doncaster are: Stainforth, Moorends and Dunscroft South

The least sustainable area in the South of Doncaster is New Rossington. Much of the south of the Borough is average or above in terms of its housing market sustainability. West

The least sustainable areas in the West of Doncaster are: Mexborough, Conisbrough, Denaby and Edlington. Central

The least sustainable areas in the Centre of Doncaster are: Hyde Park, Balby and Hexthorpe. Mean House Price

The map above shows the average value of house prices throughout the borough. Lower value properties tend to be located in central areas as well as Mexborough and Conisbrough. Rural areas experience higher house values (shaded red), towards the south of the borough as well as Bessacarr, Sprotbough and Hooton Pagnell.

Lower Quartile House Prices

Doncaster has an average house price in Doncaster is £131,709 (Dec 09). The map shows the average value of lower quartile house prices throughout the borough. Lower value properties tend to be located in central areas as well as Mexborough and Conisbrough. Rural areas experience higher house values (shaded red), towards the south of the borough as well as Bessacarr, Sprotbough and Hooton Pagnell.

Mean Incomes

The above map shows the distribution of income across the borough. The mean household income in Doncaster is £31,144. This varies greatly within the borough with lower incomes (shaded red) in Mexborough, Conisbrough and central areas and more affluent areas in the suburban and rural areas such as Sprotbrough and Tickhill.

Affordability Ratio

Doncaster has an overall affordability ratio of 4.3:1. This means that the average property is 4.3 times more than the average household income. Whilst some central areas have a lower ratio of 2:1 much of the boroughs housing is still unaffordable to many residents. It is also important to remember that affordability can be affected my low incomes as well as high house prices. The most unaffordable areas tend to be in north and south of the borough, the lowest ratio in central areas.

Empty Properties

Empty properties are a major concern in Doncaster. There are 4620 empty properties in the area (March 2010). The below map shows the concentrations of empty properties in the borough. The central area has the highest concentration of empty properties, with high concentrations in Mexborough, Conisbrough, Stainforth and Thorne. Concentrations of empty properties can bring negative consequences to areas including ASB, graffiti, rats, and rubbish and can cause house prices to fall in the area.

Proportion of Properties in Council Tax Band A and B

The above map shows the proportion of properties in the lowest council tax band A and B. Council tax banding is used as a proxy for condition of housing and low value areas. The highest proportion of properties in band A and B can be found in central areas as well as Mexborough, New Rossington, Highfields and Askern.

Turnover

The above map shows turn over of private sector housing through sales as a proportion of total stock. This indicator can show both stagnant and overly transient markets. Areas coloured red have a low turnover which could represent a low demand or stagnant market in parts of Stainforth, Conisbrough and Bentley. Areas coloured blue have a high turnover which could represent transient or over heating markets this can be seen in parts of the city centre and Mexborough.

IMD Environment and Crime Rankings

The above maps are derived from the Index of Multiple deprivation. The map on the left shows the environmental ranking, the darker the shade of red, the lower the environmental score. This domain covers: Social and private housing in poor condition, houses without central heating, air quality and road traffic accidents involving injury to pedestrians and cyclists. The score is poorest central areas as well as parts of Mexborough, Rossington and Thorne. The map on the right shows the crime ranking. This domain measures the rate of recorded crime for four major volume crime types - burglary, theft, criminal damage and violence - representing the risk of personal and material victimisation at a small area level. The score is poorest central areas as well as parts of Mexborough, Conisbrough, Bentley, Rossington and Thorne.

Average Key Stage 4 Points

The above map shows average key stage 4 points (at LSOA level based on where the pupil lives). Pupils, on average score lower in central areas as well as parts of Mexborough, Conisbrough, Bentley, Rossington and Thorne. Pupils scored highest in parts of the North and South, including Sprotbrough and Tickhill. Population Change

The above map shows population change in Doncaster between 2001 and 2008. Some areas of the city have experienced considerable growth, most notably Lakeside, Austerfield, Bawtry and Old Rossington. This could be due to the amount of new

housing developments that have been built in these areas. On the reverse, many areas of Doncaster have experienced a large net loss of population most notably in Dunscroft, Hyde Park and New Rossington. This could be new to demolitions, regeneration works or even unaffordable housing Percentage of Retired People

The above map shows the percentage of retired people (me over 65 and women over 60) living in the area. Central areas have a lower percentage of people at retirement age, with the exception of Balby. Sprotbrough, Bessacarr, Tickhill and Hatfield have the highest proportion of older people.

Percentage of Families

The above map shows the percentage of families living in the area. Central areas have a lower percentage of families, with the exception of Town Moor. Thorne, Rossington, Adwick, Dunscroft and Conisbrough have highest proportion of families living in the area. Claimants of Benefits and Unemployment

The above maps show concentrations of people claiming benefits and unemployment in the borough. The highest number of claimants can be found in central areas as well as parts of Mexborough, Conisbrough, Bentley, Rossington and Thorne. Worklessness amongst the working age population is a concern in Doncaster. The map shows the concentrations of worklessness in the borough. The central area has the highest concentration of working age people claiming JSA, with high concentrations in Mexborough, New Rossington, Highfields and Stainton. Distance from Services

The above maps show access to services across the borough and highlight the issue of transport in rural areas. The least sustainable areas in terms of access to services are: Sprotbrough, Wadworth Hatfield and Stainforth. However in comparison with other rural areas Doncaster is fairly accessible.