Doncaster Metropolitan Borough Council€¦ · Doncaster Metropolitan Borough Council Doncaster Retail Study Update February 2007 CB Richard Ellis Kingsley House Wimpole Street London

Doncaster Metropolitan Borough Council

Doncaster Retail Study Update

February 2007

CB Richard Ellis Kingsley House Wimpole Street

London W1G 0RE

Tel: 020 7182 2000 Fax: 020 7182 2021

e-mail: [email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

Contents CONTENTS PAGE NUMBER 1. Introduction.................................................................................................................. 1 2. The Vitality and Viability of Doncaster Town Centre............................................................ 3 3. Retail Capacity Forecasts.............................................................................................. 22 4. Qualitative Update ...................................................................................................... 38 5. Summary of Conclusions and Recommendations............................................................. 42

APPENDICES APPENDIX 1 – CATCHMENT AREA PLAN APPENDIX 2 – LOCATION OF CAR PARKS IN DONCASTER TOWN CENTRE APPENDIX 3 – RESULTS OF THE ON-STREET INTERVIEW SURVEY APPENDIX 4A – RETAIL CAPACITY FORECASTS APPENDIX 4B – RETAIL CAPACITY FORECASTS – INTERNET SCENARIO APPENDIX 5 – RESULTS OF THE HOUSEHOLD INTERVIEW SURVEY

Doncaster Retail Study Update 2007 1

1. INTRODUCTION

1.1 In January 2005, we completed the Doncaster Retail Study Update on behalf of Doncaster

Metropolitan Borough Council. The 2005 Update was a review of the Doncaster Retail Capacity

Study 2001. Both of these studies included a detailed quantitative assessment of future retail

capacity in the Borough; an assessment of the demand from retailers for additional shops and

stores; and a review of the qualitative need for additional shopping facilities in the Borough.

1.2 Following completion of the 2005 Update, the extension to the Frenchgate Centre was completed

in Doncaster town centre. This extension to the town centre has substantially extended the centre’s

prime retail area and thus increased the attractiveness of Doncaster town centre to shoppers.

1.3 Government guidance on assessing retail capacity or ‘retail need’ has also changed since 2005.

Planning Policy Statement 6: Planning for Town Centres (PPS6) was published in March 2005.

PPS6 requires local authorities to set out a spatial vision and strategy in their Local Development

Framework (LDF) for the network and hierarchy of centres within their area. This strategy should

also take into account the findings of the Regional Spatial Strategy. To assist the Council in their

preparation of the LDF our retail study will:

• Assess the need for new retail floorspace.

• Identify any qualitative deficiencies in existing provision.

• Advise the Council on how to meet any need identified.

1.4 The Council also requires an up-to-date review of the vitality and vitality of Doncaster town centre,

including evidence of current customers’ views and behaviour, as part of its ongoing monitoring of

the town centre, and to inform the Council’s strategy for Doncaster town centre.

1.5 The Council therefore commissioned us in November 2006 to undertake this Retail Study Update.

1.6 This report is set out under the following sections:

Section 2 presents our ‘health check’ of Doncaster town centre.

Section 3 sets out the technical basis of our retail capacity forecasts and describes the principal

data input into and the structure of our REASN forecasting model and sets out our retail capacity

forecasts.

Section 4 reviews the qualitative need for new retail development in the Borough.

Section 5 summarises our principal conclusions in relation to the need for new retail development

in Doncaster over the plan period.


Appendices include a map of Doncaster’s retail catchment area and the detailed REASN model

forecasts.


2. THE VITALITY AND VIABILITY OF DONCASTER TOWN CENTRE

2.1 In this section of the report, we undertake a health check in order to consider the vitality and

viability of Doncaster town centre, drawing on the indicators set out in paragraph 4.4 of PPS6.

2.2 In order to assess the vitality and viability of Doncaster town centre we have drawn upon Experian

Goad data, combined with observations gained from site visits. In addition, we have relied upon

available in-house data, information provided by the Council, together with other research

resources such Promis and Focus Centre reports.

Doncaster Town Centre – An Overview

2.3 Doncaster is a sub-regional retail centre. As such, its primary role is to meet longer term shopping

needs through providing a range of services, and particularly comparison (non-food) shopping. It

does however also meet shorter term shopping needs of those who live or work in the centre.

Nearby competing centres include Barnsley, Rotherham, Sheffield (both the city centre and

Meadowhall), Leeds and York. The shape of the town centre broadly forms a circle; it is also

reasonably compact (a characteristic often considered to create a more vital destination), albeit

that the retail offer is more spread out around the eastern fringes. The core of the retail centre is

focussed along St Sepulchre Gate and Baxtergate, running along the western side of the town

centre. Secondary shopping retail areas spread eastward from this main shopping thoroughfare.

Diversity of Main Town Centre Uses

2.4 Overall, Doncaster town centre offers a fairly wide range of comparison goods, interspersed with

both service and to a lesser extent, convenience retailers. The Experian Goad report for Doncaster

City Centre (October 2005) indicates a total floorspace of 132,015 sq m (1,421,500 sq ft) of

existing retail services floorspace, based on the ground floor footprints of units (The Doncaster

MBC survey – June 2006 – identifies 145,119 sq m (1.56m sq ft) of floorspace). In total, 580 shop

units are identified, although the Goad data does not include the recent extension/refurbishment of

the Frenchgate Centre which has increased this number considerably. The table below sets out the

occupancy of these units in terms of the retail categories for convenience, comparison, service and

vacant units. This is set against the national average for town centres to provide a comparison.


Retail and Services Provision in Doncaster by Number of Units

Retail Category No. of Units % of Total

National Average %

Variance %

Comparison 283 48.79 46.28 2.51 Convenience 46 7.93 9.09 -1.16 Service 182 31.38 32.68 -1.3 Vacant 59 10.17 10.60 -0.43 TOTAL 570

2.5 Doncaster is broadly in line with the overall UK town centre average in terms of the unit retail split.

As would be expected from a town of Doncaster’s status and size, it has an above average

representation of comparison units. The recently extended and refurbished Frenchgate Centre will

have increased the comparison offer further. As a rule, centres which offer a higher than above

average comparison offer tend to be regarded as stronger shopping destinations. However,

according to our centre survey, there are now 107 units vacant in the town centre; we discuss this

further below.

2.6 The floorspace occupied by various retail categories within the Doncaster town centre (see table

below) follows a similar pattern to that identified above. Again, the retail offer in Doncaster broadly

mirrors that of an average UK town. Arguably, there may also be the scope to increase the

convenience offer in the centre, given that it is slightly under-represented in the table below. Also,

it is often expected that a much higher proportion of floorspace is given over to comparison

retailers, reflecting an occupier trend for larger shop units. Again, we would expect that the

extension to the Frenchgate Centre will have improved this situation.

Retail and Services Provision in Doncaster Town Centre by Floorspace

Retail Category Floor Space

(sq m) % of Total

National Average %

Variance %

Comparison 71,926 54.46 51.54 2.92 Convenience 17,168 13.00 16.62 -3.62 Service 31,132 23.57 21.60 1.97 Vacant 10,461 7.92 9.08 -1.16 TOTAL 130,687

Source: Experian Goad 2005

2.7 A more detailed breakdown of the retail sub-sectors identifies a number of additional points:-

• Groceries and frozen foods – The Experian Goad data indicates that there is a significant

under-representation in this category. Currently, the only full price foodstore within the town

centre is a moderate sized Sainsbury within the Frenchgate Centre. Two small Kwik Save

discount stores have closed in the past few years. However, it should be noted that the


market does provide a good variety of food goods. The market also adds significant

diversity and vitality to the north-western area in the town centre. Also, while a large Tesco

foodstore lies on the boundary of the town centre, arguably it does little to add to the overall

retail mix given that links between the store and the town centre are fairly weak with Trafford

Way acting as a significant barrier to pedestrian movement.

• Variety, department and catalogue stores – Doncaster town has a significant over-

representation of these types of stores including Binns, M&S and BhS. This is a welcome

feature of Doncaster town centre. Department stores are seen as significant shopping

attractors. The opening of the Debenhams store in Frenchgate will have undoubtedly

improved this situation further.

• Restaurants, cafes and fast food – Although the representation of this sector is only

marginally below that of the UK average, this type of retailing is likely to offer substantial

growth in the future. Such uses, and particularly restaurants/cafes, can considerably aid the

diversity within a town centre, increase dwell times and add to the overall shopping

experience. Doncaster does have several areas where such uses are clustered, including

along Silver Street, Priory Walk and Bradford Row. Even so, the town centre appears to have

few upmarket eateries and seems to be more reliant on fast food and typical high street

coffee shops.

2.8 In terms of other town centre uses, Doncaster has a number of large public sector buildings (such

as Council offices). However, in terms of other entertainment and cultural facilities, there is far less

representation. For example, there is only one small cinema in the town centre and a small theatre

to the east of Waterdale. From our site visit, there also appears to be a fairly limited residential

stock within the town centre; residential uses can add significant vibrancy to the town centre, add to

its diversity and increase footfall. Residential uses can also make better use of upper floors.

Where development opportunities arise, the Council might be minded to encourage more mixed

use schemes, and possibly to enhance the financial viability of proposals.

Retailer Representation and Retail Demand

2.9 Another good indicator of the strength of the centre is to examine multiple retailer representation.

According to the Experian Goad report, a multiple retailer is defined as being part of a network of

9 or more outlets. The presence of multiple outlets can enhance the appeal of a centre to

shoppers. In October 2005, 226 of 580 units in Doncaster were occupied by multiple retailers,

accounting for 38.97% of the stock. This figure is considerably in excess of the national average of

33.25%. Our centre survey highlights 27 of the key 30 retailers are located in Doncaster. This is

set out in the table below.


Key retailers in Doncaster

Key Retailer No. Key Retailer No. Argos 1 New Look 1 BhS 1 Next 1 Boots the Chemists 2 River Island 1 Burton 1 Sainsburys 1 Carphone Warehouse

2 Superdrug 1

Clarks 1 Tesco 1 Clintons 4 Topman 1 Currys 1 Topshop 1 Debenhams 1 Virgin Megastore 0 Dorothy Perkins 1 Vodafone 2 H&M 1 Waitrose 0 House of Fraser (Binns)

1 Waterstones 1

John Lewis 0 Wilkinsons 2 Marks & Spencer 1 Woolworths 1 Source: Experian Goad, CBRE Centre Survey NB: Tesco lies outside the defined town centre boundary

2.10 The Property Market Analysis (PMA) Promis Report 2007 ranks Doncaster as the 41st best provider

of retailers out of the top 200 town centres in the UK. However, with particular regard to fashion

stores, then Doncaster’s ranking slips to 60th. This ranking suggests that while Doncaster is

performing fairly well in respect of its comparison offer, there is scope to improve the extent and

quality of fashion retailers. Indeed, Doncaster is somewhat dominated by mass market retailers,

has little by way of quality fashion outlets, and a far greater representation of discount fashion

retailers than might ideally be desired.

2.11 The importance of independent retailers should also not be understated. They can provide

diversity to a centre’s overall offer, and help to resist the wholesale homogenisation of retail areas

– a current concern arising from recent UK retail trends. Therefore, Doncaster should seek not only

to provide opportunities to attract new national retailers (but particularly fashion-led), but also to

ensure that suitable locations – such as around Market Square – are available for independent

retailers. Typically, independent retailers seek small units at more affordable rents than available

in prime pitch areas. Independent retailers can create a significant differentiation to other

competing centres, especially if set within a high quality urban environment. As would be

expected, independent retailers are located in secondary locations in Doncaster, although the

quality of the environment of these areas is typically inferior to that of the prime retail area.

2.12 The level of retailer demand to locate in Doncaster provides another good indication of the

centre’s health. The table below identifies the current retailer requirements for Doncaster.


Retailers Requirements for Doncaster Town Centre

Comparison Convenience Service TOTAL Number of requirements

57 11 57 125

Sq m minimum 44,826 5,255

30,004

80,085

Sq m maximum 74,378 9,262

57,889

141,529

Sq ft minimum 482,503 56,570

322,959

862,032

Sq ft maximum 800,603 99,700

623,110

1,523,413

Source: Pipnet/Focus, CB Richard Ellis, January 2007

Notes: Table shows those retailers/service operators with a requirement for Doncaster since July 2006

These retailers may also be considering non-central locations 2.13 In total, 125 retail and service businesses have expressed a demand for floorspace within

Doncaster. Demand is strongest from both comparison and service sector retailers. However, it

should be noted that main supermarket operators and small independent convenience store

operators do not post their requirements on databases such as Pipnet and Focus. This may

explain, in part, why a far fewer requirements are identified for this sector.

2.14 According to Focus, retail requirements for Doncaster have remained reasonably steady since

2000. Doncaster’s ranking in terms of retailer demand has also tended to remain reasonably

stable in this time period. However, retailer demand may fall in coming months as a result of the

Frenchgate Centre extension, which may, and will continue to, satisfy many outstanding retailer

occupier requirements.

Shopping Rents

2.15 The level of rent that retailers are prepared to pay for space in a centre is an indication of the

perceived attractiveness of that centre. Rental values can also provide a measure of the primary of

streets and locations within a centre. The table below examines the Prime Zone A retail rents in

Doncaster and compares these to other nearby competing centres.


Prime Zone A Retail Rents – Doncaster and Competing Centres – 1996-2006

Source: CB Richard Ellis (2007)

2.16 Since 2000, Doncaster’s headline prime retail rent has grown steadily. This pattern has been seen

across all of the other competing centres shown in the table above. However, the rate of increase

for Doncaster has been much more marked in recent years, suggesting that the centre is becoming

more attractive to occupiers. As would be expected, the major centres of Sheffield and York (both

regional shopping centres) command a far higher Prime Zone A rent than Doncaster. Barnsley,

however, has a similar headline rental rate, and arguably this centre may be competing strongly

with Doncaster both in terms of shoppers and occupiers.

2.17 Zone A rents do however, vary considerably across the town centre. The prime retail pitch which

commands a rent of up to £135 per sq ft Zone A, is achievable in the Frenchgate Centre. Moving

northward along St Sepulchre Gate and Baxtergate, then rents fall away to around £100 per sq ft

(adjacent to the M&S store). However, at the Waterdale Centre, then rents are typically are around

£25 per sq ft Zone A. At this rental level, retail-led development may be much more financially

marginal, and other uses may have to cross-fund successful development.

2.18 The rental tones underline the primacy of Frenchgate, St Sepulchre Gate and Baxtergate as retail

locations; locations beyond this core are essentially secondary. However, lower rental levels in

these secondary areas make them more affordable for independent traders.

Commercial Yields

2.19 The commercial yield on non-domestic property is an indication of the confidence of investors and

the rental growth potential of a centre. However, it does require careful analysis and its limitations

must be understood. In broad terms, the yield on a property investment represents a return (in the

form of a rent) on capital to an investor. The greater prospect of future rental growth, the lower

the initial yield which an investor will be prepared to accept. Conversely, a higher yield affects a

lower expectation of the future rental growth prospects. Yields are therefore an indicator of

expectations of rental growth and the general economic prospects for a retail centre. The table

below compares the prime shopping centre yields for Doncaster with other competing centres.

Centre £m2 (£ft2)

Aug 96

Aug 97

Aug 98

Aug 99

Aug 00

Aug 01

Aug 02

Aug 03

Aug 04

Aug 05

Aug 06

Doncaster 85

(915) 85

(915) 95

(1023) 100

(1076) 90

(969) 90

(969) 110

(1184) 110

(1184) 115

(1238) 125

(1345) 130

(1399)

Barnsley 70

(753) 85

(915) 85

(915) 90

(969) 90

(969) 90

(969) 110

(1184) 116

(1249) 120

(1292) 120

(1292) 120

(1292)

Rotherham 45

(484) 45

(484) 47.5 (511)

47.5 (511)

47 (506)

47 (506)

55 (592)

60 (646)

55 (592)

60 (646)

65 (700)

Sheffield 102.5 102.5 170

(1830) 170

(1830) 160

(1722) 175

(1884) 205

(2207) 205

(2207) 210

(2260) 215

(2314) 215

(2314)

York 130

(1399) 140

(1507) 150

(1615) 160

(1722) 150

(1615) 160

(1722) 160

(1722) 175

(1884) 185

(1991) 210

(2260) 210

(2260)


Prime Retail Yields % (1996-2006)

Source: CB Richard Ellis (2007) *Results are for May rather than August

2.20 Prime retail yields in Doncaster have continued to sharpen since August 2001. This trend has

generally been seen across the UK. Perhaps more importantly for Doncaster is to consider the

prime retail yield in the context of other competing centres. In that respect, Doncaster continues to

maintain a 0.75% differential between Barnsley, is broadly comparable with Sheffield (although

proposals to improve the city centre are beginning to have a positive effect on investor confidence),

and is marginally above that of York – a much stronger retailer destination. Overall, the retail

sector continues to be seen as a strong investment prospect, with potential for good rental growth

in the future.

Vacant Retail Property

2.21 A proportion of vacant street level property provides a strong indication of the health of the town

centre. It should however be considered with a degree of caution as vacancies can arise even in

the strongest town centres, particularly where properties are undergoing alterations or extensions

such as recently occurred at the Frenchgate Centre. From our centre survey, we have identified the

following vacancies across the town centre, split into broad street zones.

Vacant Units by Area

Aug 96

Aug 97

Aug 98

Aug 99

Aug 00

Aug 01

Aug 02

Aug 03

Aug 04

Aug 05

Aug 06

Doncaster 6.5 6 5.75 5.75 6.25 7.25 7 6.85 5.65 5 4.75

Barnsley 7 6.75 6.5 6.75 7 7.5 7.5 7.5 6.25 5.75 5.5

Rotherham* 8.5 8.25 8 8 8 8.25 8 7.85 n/a n/a n/a

Sheffield 7.25 6.85 6.75 6.5 6.75 7.25 7.15 6.85 5.65 4.85 4.65

York 5 4.75 4.35 4.5 4.85 5.75 5.75 5.75 4.75 4.25 4

Area Number of Vacant Units

Frenchgate Centre 42 St. Sepulchre / Baxtergate 3

Market Place / Market Road / Copley Road / Netherhall Road 10 Hall Gate / Silver St / East Laith Gate / Thorne Road 18 Waterdale Centre 21 Spring Gardens / Duke St 5 High St / Scot Lane / Priory Place 8 TOTAL 107


2.22 As at January 2007, 107 vacant units were identified from our centre survey (as compared to 59 at

October 2005, and 68 as at June 2006). This equates to 18.4% of existing stock, and is much

higher than the UK average of 10.2%. Much of the increase in vacant retail property – and as the

table demonstrates – is a result of the recent opening of the Frenchgate extension. Many of the

units remain unlet. Coupled with this, a number of retailers now occupying the centre are

relocations from elsewhere in Doncaster – for example, Blue Banana, Clarks, HMV, Next and

Orange. Even so, St Sepulchre Gate and Baxtergate has a very low level of vacant units. Likewise,

the High Street area also has fairly few vacancies. However, more peripheral retail areas and

particularly the Waterdale Centre has a very high concentration of vacant units. The figures

strongly demonstrate that this area is trading poorly and is not popular with retailers. There is also

a notable cluster of large vacant retail units on Silver Street. This suggests that regeneration

initiatives may need to be targeted in these secondary areas. Also, in the short term, efforts should

be concentrated on letting existing vacant units rather than promoting additional retail floorspace

in the town centre.

Pedestrian Flows

2.23 Pedestrian flows are a useful indicator of the relative strengths of different parts of the town centre.

We are aware that some pedestrian flow count monitoring for Doncaster Town Centre has been

undertaken but unfortunately, that data was not available at the time of this study, although our

site observations provide broad views on this. Essentially, the pedestrian flows throughout the town

centre mirror the primacy of the streets in terms of the strength of their retail environment. The

strongest pedestrian flows are along St Sepulchre Gate, Baxtergate and around Market Place. In

particular, the entrance to the south and north mall at Frenchgate are areas of considerable

pedestrian flows. Reasonable pedestrian flows are evident along the High Street and Printing

Office Street. However, pedestrian flows along Silver Street, Market Road and other streets to the

east are weaker. Pedestrian flows around the Waterdale Centre are also fairly weak. Arguably,

this is reflected by a far higher number of vacant properties in this area and the more marginal

trading environment.

Potential Capacity for Growth

2.24 Doncaster town centre does offer a number of potential retail development sites that could be

pursued through regeneration initiatives. In broad terms, our centre survey suggests that those with

most potential are:-

• Market Car Park – A large surface car park at the northern end of the town centre.

Essentially, redevelopment of this for retail uses could provide a strong anchor at this end of

the town. The site may also suit leisure operators, with the possibility of including residential

uses as part of the mix. However, we expect the redevelopment would almost inevitably

need to provide replacement parking spaces as part of the proposal. We would expect


Council to consider this as part of its wider parking strategy. Such a development may help

to ‘frame’ Market Place.

• Land at Frances Street and King Street (to the north of Hall Gate) – An area

dominated by a large NCP surface car park, offices and service yards. This site is currently

characterised by low intensity uses and could be used more effectively. Improved access off

Hall Gate (nos. 9-14) or punching a link off Silver Street could open up the site, allow for

some retail uses as well as a development mix including residential to the rear. Again, the

Council will need to consider whether replacement parking is required as part of its wider

parking strategy.

• The Waterdale Centre – This centre currently suffers from a high degree of vacancy and a

poor environmental quality. Generally, uses in the centre and surrounding area are fairly

low intensity (one or two storeys). Wholesale redevelopment of the centre might help to

create space for a stronger anchor in the southern part of the town centre (for example, a

foodstore, given the fairly low representation of this use in the town centre overall). Any

redevelopment opportunity might also consider including the large multi-storey at College

Road, which is currently a building of very poor quality. Redevelopment would be expected

to provide a much higher density of development so as to ensure a more vital and viable

scheme were forthcoming.

2.25 A number of small other potential development sites exist. These include:-

• Land at Trafford Way and Cleveland Street – A corner site with the opportunity for

redevelopment to herald the entrance to the town centre at this important gateway. At the

time of our survey, demolition of buildings was occurring. This site could be considered as

part of more comprehensive proposals for the southern part of the town centre, including the

Waterdale Centre.

• Bowers Fold – A collection of small retail units linking between Market Place and Silver

Street. In the longer term, there may be opportunities to improve this area, so as to provide

an enhanced pedestrian route to Silver Street from Market Place. Public realm

improvements might also create an attractive area just off the bustling Market Place.

• 24-28 and 55-60 Silver Street – Two large blocks fronting Silver Street which appear to be

reaching (or have reached) obsolescence. Potentially, the scope to redevelop these

properties should be considered in the context of the wider improvement of the Frances

Street/King Street area (as described above). This could create a far more permeable area

and enhance the overall urban quality of this area.

2.26 As with all potential redevelopment sites, further testing would be required to understand the likely

mix of uses and the viability of schemes. In some cases, redevelopment opportunities should be

considered in the context of the wider area to ensure that the regeneration benefits are maximised.


However, above all, in the short term, there is a need to reduce the number of vacant units in the

town centre.

Accessibility

2.27 Doncaster town centre benefits from good linkages to the nearby motorway network, and

particularly the A1 (M), M18 and the M1. Major arterial roads (A19, A630) also feed into the town

centre making Doncaster a fairly accessible location for those travelling by car.

2.28 The town centre also benefits from a rail station located immediately to the west of the Frenchgate

Centre. Regular Intercity/GNER services operate from Doncaster with fast connection times to east

coast line connections. A local network of train service links to centres such as Scunthorpe,

Grimsby, Cleethorpes, Mexborough and Wakefield.

2.29 Doncaster also benefits from a newly refurbished bus station which is well linked into the

Frenchgate Centre and the wider town centre. The bus station offers a good quality environment in

a covered format.

2.30 From the bus station, there is a good choice of local bus services connecting to the wider urban

area. In addition, bus stops are located around the town centre at Duke Street, Hall Gate, Silver

Street and College Road among others. The location of the bus station and other stops make

Doncaster town centre a relatively permeable destination for those using public transport. Night

buses also help to improve the public transport provision.

2.31 With the bus station and train station located adjacent to each other, these form an important

transport hub for Doncaster town centre. In addition, the use of a pedestrian walkway linking to

the Frenchgate Centre overcomes the constraint of the busy Trafford Way thoroughfare.

2.32 The level and distribution of parking within a town centre is also an important accessibility factor.

Major car parks in Doncaster town centre (see Appendix 2), these are generally well placed around

the edges of the town centre. For example, the large College Road MSCP feeds shoppers in from

the south, parking at the Frenchgate Centre does likewise to the west, the Market Place to the

north, and a series of surface car parks around East Laith Gate, Frances Street serve the town to

the eastern side. In addition to this, a series of small short term parking bays on Scot Lane and

Hall Gate assist in making the town centre more permeable. It should also be noted that the

centre also benefits from a number of park and ride schemes.

2.33 While the car parks are well distributed around the town centre, there may be scope to improve the

general car parking environment. For example, the College Road multi-storey car park appears

very unwelcoming. Others, such as the market car park, benefit from being at surface level and

are well lit. Also, short term on street parking bays in secondary locations can help to assist

businesses in these areas.


2.34 For pedestrians, the network of streets in Doncaster town centre improves connectivity. In addition,

St Sepulchre Gate, Frenchgate, the High Street and Market Place are all pedestrianised. This

provides for a safe pedestrian environment along the key retailing streets. In more secondary

areas, the centre is served by a reasonable number of pedestrian crossings, although any

improvement to the pedestrian environment in these areas would undoubtedly be welcome.

Environmental Quality

2.35 To assess the state of the environment in Doncaster town centre, a survey was undertaken of the

main shopping streets/areas. Ten environmental features were assessed within these areas, and

the features rated on a scale of 1 to 5, where 1 is very poor and 5 is very good. On this basis, 3

represents a neutral or fair score. The average scores across the whole town centre for each

feature reviewed, and for the town centre as a whole, are as follows:-

State of the Town Centre Environment

Criteria Average Score Condition of carriageway 3.6

Seats, planters, hanging baskets, water features, public art (paintwork, broken, uneven, parts missing, not working, badly sited, not present).

2.9

Public Facilities, Telephones, Bus stops/shelters 3.1

Incidence of graffiti, fly posting, vandalism 4.2 Market stalls 4

Barriers to movement 3.6

Cycle parking 2.5

Maintenance and repair of buildings 3.5

Personal security and police presence 3

Wheelchair access 3.3

OVERALL SCORE 3.4 CB Richard Ellis 2007 2.36 As a whole, our environmental rating for Doncaster town centre is considered ‘fair to good’. In

most cases, the individual criteria were scored as ‘fair’ or above, save for the level of cycle parking

provision. However, we understand that the Council do monitor the use of cycle parking regularly

and has introduced additional facilities since our site visits were undertaken.

2.37 A more detailed review on an area-by-area basis describes where, in our opinion, some streets are

of a higher environmental quality than others. This is based on seven broad survey zones, as

shown in the table below.


Average Environmental Quality Rating by Area

Area Average Rating Frenchgate Centre 4.9

St. Sepulchre Gate / Baxtergate 3.9

Market Place / Market Road / Copley Road / Netherhall Road 3.2

Hall Gate / Silver Street / East Laith Gate / Thorne Road 2.8 Waterdale Centre 3.1

Colonnades/Spring Gardens / Duke Street 2.3

High Street / Scot Lane / Priory Place 4 CB Richard Ellis 2007

2.38 The areas attracting the lowest scores were the Colonnades/Duke Street area, Hall Gate/Silver

Street, and the Waterdale Centre. We understand that these results are broadly in line with the

previous environmental survey undertaken in 2004. We describe each of these areas in more

detail.

i) Frenchgate Centre

The recent extension and modernisation of the Frenchgate Centre has resulted in a modern, light

and clean shopping environment. The malls are attractive and well managed. The centre received

the highest rating of the areas surveyed in the town centre.

ii) St Sepulchre Gate/Baxtergate

St Sepulchre Gate, Frenchgate and Baxtergate forms the prime retail area. Recent public realm

improvements have assisted in making a high quality retailing environment. In all of these

separate sub-categories, the area was rated as either good or excellent, save for cycle parking.

iii) Market Place/Market Road/Copley Road/Netherhall Road

The Market Place area is considered an important and well maintained public space. The market

adds attractiveness and significant diversity to the town centre. However, on adjoining streets to

the east, such as Market Road, Copley Road and Netherhall Road, the environmental quality

declines. In particular, barriers to pedestrian movement were more significant, the pedestrian

surface inferior and the maintenance of shopfronts poorer.


iv) Hall Gate/Silver Street/East Laith Gate

An area of moderate environmental quality. In particular, Silver Street is a fairly uninviting

environment, dominated by largely unattractive buildings, several of which are vacant. Hall Gate

and East Laith Gate offer a better environment, albeit that there is very little in the way of street

furniture such as seats, planters, hanging baskets or litter bins. Again, no evidence of designated

cycle parking was seen. Also, pedestrian movement across Silver Street and Hall Gate is more

difficult with relatively few pedestrian crossings. We understand that the council intends to improve

Hallgate through its Quality Street Programme; however these plans are unlikely to come forward

in the immediate future.

v) Waterdale Centre/Wood Street

Although some limited environmental/streetscape improvements have been made to the Waterdale

Centre, and it is a fairly clean environment, the general urban fabric is poor. Low intensity

buildings are of a poor architectural quality while, in many cases, the shopfronts are in a state of

disrepair. The high level of shop unit vacancy detracts substantially from the ambience of this

area. The pedestrianised nature of the Waterdale Centre does however enable shoppers to move

around the area easily. However, as a retail environment, it is unattractive and unwelcoming and

does little to contribute to the overall quality of Doncaster town centre.

vi) The Colonnades/Spring Gardens/Duke Street

The Colonnades, a small shopping centre comprising mainly small retail units, is a fairly narrow

and uninviting retail environment. Duke Street and the southern end of Cleveland Street are

dominated by a number of large vacant buildings, and generally the quality of the streetscape is

poor with shopfronts in require of repair, limited seating or other public facilities available. The

general condition of the pedestrian environment could benefit from improvement.

vii) High Street/Scot Lane/Priory Place

Overall, this area was considered to be attractive, particularly the High Street which benefits from

many buildings of good architectural merit. The area also benefits from the provision of good

quality public art, informal seating set within a well maintained urban environment. Scot Lane and

Priory Place are also fairly attractive. Possibly, more could be made of Priory Walk, to make this a

more interesting pedestrian environment.

Customer Views and Behaviour

2.39 As part of the retail assessment, Research and Marketing were commissioned to undertake an on-

street survey of shoppers and other town centre users. This was based on a random sample of 500

interviews at locations in Market Place, High Street, Baxtergate, Frenchgate, St Sepulchre Gate,

Printing Office Street and Cleveland Street. Interviewing was conducted in December 2006 over a


period of four weeks. The key results of this on-street survey are described below, with reference

made to the previous survey undertaken in 2004 where appropriate.

i) Purpose of Visit to Doncaster Town Centre

2.40 Respondents were asked for the main purpose of their visit to Doncaster town centre. 76.2% of all

respondents indicated that they were shopping, by far the largest response rate. This figure is also

higher than recorded in November 2004, where 54.7% of respondents’ indicated that shopping

was the key reason for visiting. The second highest response related to people working in the town

centre. Interestingly, people visiting for tourism, museums or cinema was very low. Although such

responses need to be treated with caution (particularly given the timing that the surveys were

conducted), it may indicate there is a need to enhance the range of leisure and cultural uses within

the centre.

Main Purpose of Visit to Town Centre

% Shopping 76.20 Work in Town Centre 11.10 Services 5.10 Social, to meet friends 4.80 Other (Incl. Education, to catch a bus) 1.40 Visit the Market 1.20 Tourism, Museum, Cinema 0.20

Research and Marketing Plus January 2007

ii) Goods Purchased

2.41 In terms of goods purchased, the highest response was for leisure goods, and then clothes and

shoes. Arguably, a higher score should be achieved for clothes and shoes given the centre’s

function and the importance of the fashion sector to its success. Despite this, the responses do – in

the main – demonstrate that Doncaster is meeting longer term shopping needs. Bulkier items such

as furniture and electrical goods rank much lower, as would be expected.


Goods Purchased/Expected to Purchase

% Leisure Goods e.g. Books, CDs, Sports Goods, Jewellery etc 54.80 Clothes and Shoes 38.10 Food / Groceries 31.30 Confectionary / Tobacco / Newspaper / Magazine 12.80 Chemist Goods 12.10 Household Goods / Hardware 11.50 Electrical Goods 9.90 Furniture / Furnishings 8.10 Other (incl. Christmas Presents, Haircut) 0.80

iii) Frequency of Visits to Doncaster Town Centre

Shoppers were also asked how frequently they visit the town centre for various purposes, with the

responses described below.

Frequency of Visits to Doncaster Town Centre % For Food For Non-

Food For Services For Evening

Entertainment/Eating For Visiting Pubs

Never 30.10 3.00 23.00 49.30 48.10 Once a week 15.00 28.10 22.40 10.10 10.70 2-3 times a week 11.50 17.60 13.50 5.10 5.00 Once a month 10.70 16.40 12.30 9.10 10.50 Once a fortnight 9.90 13.70 9.30 8.30 6.50 Every 1-6 months 7.30 8.10 8.30 7.90 6.50 Less often 6.90 3.60 4.00 4.80 6.30 Everyday 5.50 5.70 4.80 0.80 0.60 Every 6-12 months 2.80 3.40 2.40 4.20 5.30 Don't know 0.20 0.40 0.20 0.40 0.40 2.42 26.5% of respondents indicated that they came to Doncaster town centre at least once a week for

food shopping. This represents a fall since November 2004 where over 43% of respondents

shopped for food in Doncaster at least once a week.

2.43 In terms of non-food shopping, 45.7% visited Doncaster town centre at least once a week. This

result is marginally lower than recorded in 2004 (53.4%). However, only 3% of respondents never

visited the centre for such a purpose.


2.44 A considerable number of respondents visit Doncaster town centre for services (around 40%).

However, a much smaller number visit the town centre for evening entertainment, eating or visiting

pubs. Indeed, almost 50% of those interviewed never visited the town centre for leisure purposes.

Arguably, this points to a significant weakness in the diversity of Doncaster town centre.

iv) Use of Doncaster Town Centre in the Evening

2.45 Of the 39% of respondents who said that they did visit the town centre in the evening, a wide range

of reasons were given for their purpose. The responses are set out in the table below.

Use of the Town Centre in the Evening

(39% of all respondents said that they did visit the Town Centre in the evening) % Visiting Pubs 59.20 Restaurants / Eating Out 25.40 Shopping 5.50 Cinema / Theatre 4.00 Meeting friends / relatives 2.50 Walking around / browsing 1.50 Other (e.g. work) 1.00 Exhibitions/ Concerts / Festivals / Museums 0.50 Going to Churches, Clubs, Societies etc 0.50

Research and Marketing Plus January 2007

2.46 The main reason given was for visiting pubs. The second highest reason was for restaurants/eating

out. However, other leisure pursuits such as visiting the cinema, theatre or other exhibitions gained

a far lower response. Generally, Doncaster’s evening economy seems to be fairly limited (albeit it

must be recognised that not all types of respondents would be willing to use the town centre in the

evening even if the range of facilities were increased considerably).

v) Doncaster Town Centre – Likes and Dislikes

Respondents were asked what they liked and disliked about Doncaster town centre, with more than

one answer accepted. The results are described in the table below.


Things Liked about Doncaster Town Centre for Shopping or Services

% Things Disliked about Doncaster Town Centre for Shopping or Services

%

Good range of shops 50.30 Nothing/very little 40.4 The Frenchgate Centre 33.70 Too busy/crowded 13.7 Big stores like Marks & Spencer

24.00 Difficult to park near shops 10.9

The Market 22.20 High cost of car parking 10.7 Good range of services/eating places

12.70 Traffic congestion making it difficult to get there by car

8.7

Nothing/very little 11.70 Poor bus services 6.5 Lots of unusual shops 9.90 Streets dirty or badly

maintained 5.9

Pleasant/safe pedestrian streets 7.50 Poor range of shops 5.0 Good bus services 7.30 The Market 4.6 Clean and well maintained streets

6.70 High prices 3.6

Easy parking/good car parks 5.50 Poor pedestrian links/subways 3.4 Compact/everything central 4.80 Poor signposting and

information for pedestrians 1.8

Historic buildings/environment 4.20 Poor signposting and information for motorists

1.2

Other 12.2 2.47 The most important message to be drawn from the ‘likes and dislikes’ for Doncaster town centre is

that far more people dislike nothing or very little about the centre as compared to those who like

very little. Also, far higher response rates are elicited for the key ‘likes’ for the centre compared to

‘dislikes’. In terms of specific answers, the key positive points relate to a good range of shops, the

Frenchgate Centre and the attraction of major anchor stores such as Marks & Spencer. The market

was also seen as an important positive reason for coming to Doncaster.

2.48 In terms of dislikes, issues of accessibility relating to cost of the car parking, traffic congestion and

difficulty parking near shops as well as the centre being too busy were considered the main

detractors. It should be noted, however, that these reasons are typically the main dislikes recorded

from town centre on-street surveys. In that respect, Doncaster town centre is not alone.

vi) Improvements Wanted in Doncaster Town Centre

Respondents were asked for their views on what improvements, if any, they would like to see in

Doncaster town centre. The results are described in the table below.


Improvements Wanted in Doncaster Town Centre TOP 5 %

1 More / Better Parking 15.40 2 Cleaner Streets 13.90 3 Lower Car Park Charges 13.70 4 Better Public Transport 10.70 5 More Big Stores (e.g. Department Stores) 7.90

2.49 The most common response related to improved parking, car park charges and better public

transport – all items related to improving the accessibility of the centre. It is also noted that a

clean, well maintained urban environment is important to shoppers. Finally, the importance of

anchor stores in attracting shoppers should not be underestimated.

Perception of Safety and Crime

2.50 In the main, the streets of Doncaster town centre are covered by CCTV, are well lit and generally

appealing. Many of the car parks are also covered by CCTV, and again, are well lit. In addition,

there are a number of ‘help points’ dotted around the town centre for use during the evening,

should the occasion arise. As a rule, Doncaster’s streets are wide and mostly welcoming. This can

help improve the perception of safety.

Summary

2.51 Overall, we consider that Doncaster is a vital and vibrant centre. In particular, our health check

identifies the following key points:-

• That Doncaster’s retail offer is broadly in line with the UK average. Going forward,

increases in the representation of fashion retailers and potentially improving the convenience

offer may enhance the centre’s offer.

• It would be beneficial to enhance the range of restaurant/cafes in the centre, coupled with

the potential to increase the level of on-street café seating.

• There is good demand from retailers to locate in Doncaster. Rents have also risen

considerably in recent years, while prime retail yields are currently keen. All of this points

towards a healthy centre with good future economic prospects.

• The level of shop unit vacancies has increased considerably in recent years in the town

centre. In the main, this can be put down to the recent opening of the Frenchgate extension,

and its wider effect on occupiers relocating in the centre. As a result, much of the identified

demand could potentially be satisfied by these vacant units being (re)let.


• In some cases, the retail environment of certain areas may be detracting from occupiers

locating in vacant units, such as at the Waterdale Centre. In these circumstances, more

radical intervention may be required through considering the redevelopment potential of

such areas. Residential uses might help to facilitate mixed use development in these more

secondary areas, or possibly securing an appropriate anchor tenant.

• Arguably, Doncaster has a limited evening economy, entertainment and cultural offer.

Increasing the range and diversity of this sector could strengthen the appeal of the centre.

• The environmental quality of the centre is good in prime retail areas. However, the quality

of the streetscape diminishes in more secondary areas. Overall, the general quality of the

retail environment is an increasingly important factor to shoppers and retailers alike. High

quality urban destinations can be a defining factor between competing centres.

• The on-street survey confirms that Doncaster continues to be a popular shopping

destination. It also highlights some of the issues discussed above – a relatively limited

evening economy, the need to attract further fashion retailers, and the importance of a

clean, high quality urban environment.

2.52 Whilst we consider that Doncaster is a healthy centre, there is, as in an all cases, the need for the

centre to evolve and improve. In turn, this will ensure that, in the future, the centre can continue to

compete effectively with other nearby shopping destinations.


3. RETAIL CAPACITY FORECASTS

3.1 In this section, we set out the technical basis for our REASN forecasting Model for Doncaster,

describe the principal data inputs into the model and set out the resulting retail capacity forecasts.

These have been prepared separately for convenience and comparison goods, defined as follows:

• Convenience goods: Food, alcoholic drink, tobacco products, newspapers and

periodicals, non-durable household goods.

• Comparison goods: Clothing and footwear; household textiles and soft furnishings;

Furniture and floor coverings; household appliances; audio visual equipment; hardware,

DIY goods, decorating supplies, tools and garden products; chemist and medical goods,

cosmetics and beauty products; books, jewellery, watches, china, glassware and kitchen

utensils, recreational, personal and luxury goods.

3.2 We have used the same Retail Expenditure Allocation and Shop floorspace Need (REASN)

forecasting Model as we used in our 2001 Study and 2005 Update. This has been rolled forward

to 2021, whilst retaining intermediate forecasting years of 2011 and 2016. The study, therefore,

includes the preparation of up to date forecasts of the additional retail floorspace, which will be

supportable by increases in the population and expenditure of catchment area residents. A copy of

the REASN Forecasting Model is included in Appendix 4A.

The CB Richard Ellis REASN Model

3.3 There are a number of alternative approaches to forecasting the level of additional shop

floorspace supportable in any location, and the retail impact of proposed retail development.

Some rely on the use of driving time isochrones in defined catchment areas, whilst others employ

gravity models to forecast retail attraction of centres; or assessment of overall market share of

available expenditure.

3.4 All require an assessment of existing facilities in the area, and the level of expenditure available.

Using this data, most then apply judgements to identify the existing trading pattern and the

consequences (both positive and negative) of additional retail development.

3.5 The effectiveness of the various forecasting methods available varies considerably according to the

approach and assumptions used. Conventional gravity models are based on the attractiveness of

different centres, and therefore the extent and potential of their trade draw, purely on size and

accessibility. In reality, other factors, including the type and quality of retailers, level of parking

provision, and the retail environment. These can be equally important determinants of the trading

pattern.


3.6 Forecasting methods on driving time isochrones to determine catchment areas also rely on

assumptions and judgement rather than measures of the actual pattern of shopping visits from

residential areas to shopping centres, foodstores and retail warehouses. Similarly, global market

share based methods include a degree of interpretation because they rely on estimates derived

from one location being applied to another with different catchment area characteristics. The

result depends substantially on assumptions about the extent of the catchment area in each

location.

3.7 In response to these CB Richard Ellis has developed its Retail Expenditure, Allocation and Shop

Floorspace Need (REASN) forecasting Model. The main difference between our approach and

conventional gravity models is that the REASN Model employs the results of a household interview

survey to identify the actual shopping patterns in the area and the extent of the existing catchment

area.

3.8 Using the results of a household interview survey, it is possible to model realistically existing flows

of available expenditure to established town centres; as the basis for predicting the existing and

future capacity for further retail development.

3.9 The REASN Model utilises the results of the household interview survey as its objective measured

‘base line’, using a step by step approach, to:-

• Calculate the total amount of convenience and comparison goods expenditure which is

available within the catchment area;

• Allocate available expenditure to the study area’s town centres, based on the results of the

household interview survey of shopping patterns. This is in order to obtain estimates of

current sales and forecast future sales in the study area;

• Compare the estimated sales with existing floorspace to determine the current trading

performance of the study area’s retail destinations;

• Assess the capacity for further retail growth within the catchment according to forecasts of

expenditure and population increases and expected changes in market share.

3.10 The REASN Model is a very useful tool for retail planning, and may avoid assumptions about

existing trade draw patterns and market shares which are often inherent in other forecasting

methods. It has been used and refined in a large number of retail studies on behalf of public

sector clients. In particular, forecasts made using the REASN Model have been accepted by

Planning Inspectors and the Secretary of State at many Public Inquiries.

3.11 It is important to remember that the REASN Model is an exploratory tool, rather than a prescriptive

mechanism. Thus, for example, in preparing forecasts for future shop floorspace capacity, the

Model is usually run iteratively to explore the changes in the forecasting variables, such as in the

pattern of attraction of expenditure or in sales densities, which would be necessary to support


different levels of new development. Use of the Model in this way illuminates sensitivities and

variables, and assists in the making of judgements about the realism of any given growth or

impact scenario.

3.12 It is usually the case that significant new retail development in any town centre has the potential to

increase the market share of catchment area expenditure which is attracted to that destination. For

example, we expect this phenomenon has already occurred to some degree in Doncaster, as a

result of the development that has opened in the town over the past few years. We would expect

the market share of Doncaster town centre to grow further over time as shoppers are drawn to the

new attraction. However, we are also aware that other centres are seeking to compete with

Doncaster through new development and this may offset further increases in Doncaster’s market

shares. For the purposes of this Retail Capacity Study, we have therefore adopted Doncaster’s

existing market share as our ‘baseline’ position.

3.13 When using the REASN Model capacity forecasts as a guide to future planning policy, it is also

important to remember that the further advanced the forecasting date, the less certain the forecast.

Thus the forecast for 2011 is more robust than those for 2016 and 2021. We suggest that these

latter forecasts only indicate the broad order of magnitude of retail capacity at that date, as it

assumes all of the forecast trends continue. For this reason, we recommend that the forecasts

should be reviewed and revised on a regular basis (for example every five years) in the light of

events; taking account of the effects of any development which has occurred in the meantime.

3.14 PPS 6 emphasises the need for local planning authorities, in consultation with stakeholders and

other key local interests, to actively ‘plan for the growth’ of town centres through identifying need

and gaps in provision by allocating sites to meet such need. Local planning authorities are

charged with an overall need assessment over a plan period ‘with regular updates’. Whilst

developers are advised to identify need no further than five years ahead, paragraph 2.52 further

states that in planning for growth in their town centres, local planning authorities should allocate

sufficient sites to meet the identified need for at least the first five years from the adoption of their

development plan documents, although for large town centre schemes a longer period may be

appropriate to allow for site assembly. Local Planning Authorities are also encouraged to ensure

that suitable sites within or on the edge of centres are brought forward for development. In

conclusion, PPS6 encourages Local Planning Authorities to plan for growth.


PRINCIPAL DATA INPUTS

Catchment Area Expenditure

3.15 CB Richard Ellis’ National Survey of Local Shopping Patterns (NSLSP) 2005 comprises a

countrywide sample survey of shopping habits for comparison goods which covered the whole

country, and provides detailed information for each postcode sector on where residents shop most

often for such goods. The results indicate the extent of the catchment area of all significant retail

centres, and the market shares of catchment area comparison goods expenditure which are

attracted to each centre from each postcode sector.

3.16 The NSLSP is a unique data source which is extremely useful for identifying the catchment area of a

town centre for fashion based comparison goods, e.g. Clothing and footwear, jewellery, etc. It

does not provide any information on shopping patterns for individual comparison goods shopping

categories. It is therefore important to undertake a ‘bespoke’ household interview survey of the

major part of the catchment area indicated by the NSLSP, in order to obtain more up-to date and

more detailed information on shopping patterns for each of the various convenience and

comparison goods sub-categories.

3.17 Using information from the NSLSP, Doncaster’s catchment area was divided into 16 zones, each of

which is a group of postcode districts/sectors. The catchment area plan is attached as appendix 1.

CATCHMENT POPULATION

3.18 We have obtained a “Doncaster Profile Report” from MapInfo setting out the 2007 population of

each of the 16 catchment zones covered, together with trend based forecast populations 2011,

2016 and 2021.

3.19 Using information provided by the Council, we have identified that the majority of new housing is

planned for zone 1 of the catchment area. Therefore, we have added to the trend based

population forecasts for zone 1, the likely growth in population that will result from new housing

development in the Borough up to 2021.

3.20 In order to determine the projected population associated with the expected increase in the number

of dwellings, we have assumed an occupancy rate of 2 persons per household. This has been

derived from information provided by the Council. We have added the resulting growth in

population to the MapInfo trend base population growth, to arrive at a set of population forecasts

each zone. The resulting catchment area population forecasts by zone are set out in REASN Model

Tables 1a, 1b and 1c in Appendix 4A.


Price Basis

3.21 We have updated the price basis of the REASN Model to 2004 prices, which is used for all

monetary values throughout the report, unless otherwise indicated.

Special Forms of Trading

3.22 Expenditure on special forms of trading (SFT) is excluded from our capacity forecasts. Special

forms of trading are mail order, vending machines and other non-store activity such as internet

shopping. To take SFT into account we have made a deduction of 1.7% for convenience goods

and 5.8% for comparison goods (as advised by Mapinfo Expenditure Explanatory Volume: 2006

Expenditure).

Per Capita Expenditure

3.23 The MapInfo Doncaster Area Profile Report indicated the average per capita expenditure on

convenience and comparison goods in the catchment area in 2004. After deducting expenditure

on special forms of trading, these amount to £1,335 for convenience goods and £2,336 for

comparison goods. These base figures are set out in REASN Model Table 2a in Appendix 4A. The

base figures for the year 2004 in Table 2 have been increased to allow for estimated actual growth

over the period 2004 to 2005, followed by expected growth thereafter to 2021. For convenience

goods, we have applied the estimated actual growth of 0.1% per annum over the one year period

2004 to 2005; followed by the 1998 to 2005 ‘best fit’ short term trend rate of 0.9% per annum,

for the period 2005 to 2021. For comparison goods, we have applied the estimated actual growth

of 2.9% over the period 2004 to 2005; followed by the ultra long term trend rate of 3.8% per

annum for the period 2005 to 2021.

3.24 Whilst growth in per capita expenditure on comparison goods is currently running at a higher rate

than 3.8% per annum, it would be unrealistic to assume that the current high level of growth will

continue annually throughout the 15 year forecasting period. The ultra long term trend spans the

period 1964 to 2005 thus covering several economic cycles. Of course it does not take full

account of the potential growth of online shopping via the Internet or interactive digital TV. Whilst

this is currently growing rapidly, it still accounts for only a very small proportion of total retail

spending; and is focused mainly on particular retail categories e.g. books, music, computer

products.

3.25 To assume an annualised average of 3.8% per annum over the entire forecasting period when

growth for the last few years has been significantly above this level, therefore makes an implicit

allowance for further growth in such non traditional forms of shopping. In any event, periodic

review of the forecasts will enable the assumed growth rate to be adjusted as necessary in the light

of actual growth, and the forecasts revised accordingly.


3.26 The combined effect of the forecast growth in population and in per capita expenditure is that we

expect total catchment expenditure on convenience goods to increase by £156.6m (23%) over the

period 2007 to 2021. We expect total catchment area expenditure on comparison goods to

increase by £1,083m (82%) over the same period. This compares with forecast growth in total

catchment area population of 8.2% over the period. Thus nearly half the growth in the catchment

area’s expenditure on convenience goods is due to expected growth in population. Only a small

proportion of the growth in catchment area expenditure on comparison goods is accounted for by

forecast growth in population. This is because expenditure on comparison goods has grown (and

is projected to grow at) a much faster rate than convenience goods as the range of goods

available and the amount of expenditure consumers spend on these goods increases.

Shopping Patterns in the Catchment Area

3.27 As explained in Section 1, we commissioned a new household interview survey of shopping

patterns in Doncaster and its retail catchment area, to update the survey undertaken in 2001. The

results are set out in Appendix 5 of our report.

3.28 We have used the results of the household interview survey as the key input to our REASN

forecasting Model in order to forecast shopping patterns in the catchment area. For example, for

food stores in Doncaster town centre, in Table 3a (i) we have combined the results of the question

about main food shopping with those of the question about top up food and convenience goods

shopping. This provides a weighted average market share of convenience goods expenditure,

which is attracted by the main food stores from each zone by food and convenience stores in

Doncaster. These weighted averages are then rounded to the nearest integer and used in Table 3a

(Appendix 4A) to indicate the pattern of attraction of convenience goods expenditure by food stores

in Doncaster town centre.

3.29 In the case of comparison goods, we have made some adjustments to the results of the household

interview survey as we did in our 2001 study. We have reapportioned market shares for

comparison goods expenditure between Doncaster town centre, the non-central retail warehouses

and Lakeside Village. This is for the reasons explained in our 2001 report, viz, that the results of

the survey substantially under-represent shopping at Lakeside Village, and slightly over-represent

shopping in the town centre and the retail warehouses. For forecasting convenience, we have

applied a constant factor of 95% to the survey-indicated market shares of comparison goods

expenditure attracted by the town centre from across the catchment area. For Lakeside Village, we

have applied a constant factor of 375% to the survey-indicated market shares of comparison

goods expenditure attracted from the catchment area. We believe these adjustments result in a

realistic estimate of sales in Lakeside Village centre.

3.30 We have therefore used the results of the Household Interview Survey and have weighted the

market shares for each according to per capita expenditure on each category. This provides a

weighted average market share of all comparison goods expenditure which is attracted from each


zone by each retail destination. The market shares for each individual goods category and the

weighted averages are set out in Table 3a (ii); the final column (weighted average), of which is

rounded to the nearest integer, and applied in Table 3a (with adjustment) to indicate the market

shares of all comparison goods expenditure attracted from each zone by retail destinations in

Doncaster.

Visitor Expenditure

3.31 In the case of Mexborough town centre, we have retained our previous allowance for such

inflowing expenditure by visitors from outside the catchment area covered by the household

interview survey. We have not made any other allowances for visitor expenditure from outside the

catchment area.

Existing Shop Floorspace

3.32 We have used the most up-to-date information on existing shop floorspace provided by the

Council. Where necessary, we have supplemented this with information from the Institute of

Grocery Distribution (for food stores) and Experian Goad.

Sales Densities

3.33 For the existing main foodstores in Doncaster, Mexborough and Thorne town centres, and for non-

town centre food superstores, we have applied estimated company average sales densities based

on information published by Verdict Research in 2006. These are set out in Appendix 4A Tables

5a(i) for Doncaster town centre, 5c(i) and (ii) for the non-town centre stores, 5d(i) for Mexborough

town centre and, 5e(i) for Thorne town centre. In the case of retail warehouses, we have taken

account of estimated company average sales densities as at 2005/2006 published in the UK Retail

Rankings 2006. These sales densities are set out in Tables 5c(iii) and (iv) in Appendix 4A. They

indicate the sales capacity of the retail warehouses existing in 2001 (Table 5c(iii)) and in 2007

(Table 5c(iv)) in Doncaster, on the basis of estimated company averages.

Retail Productivity

3.34 Paragraph 2.34 of PPS6 identifies those factors that are likely to affect future demand for

additional retail floorspace. This includes forecast improvements in productivity in the use of

floorspace. This is also known as retail space productivity growth which means the increase of

sales density (£ per sq m) over time. Sales densities can change over time for a variety of reasons,

including:

• Retailers selling more goods from less space through; improvements in stock management;

more efficient floor layouts; attracting more customers into shops and converting these visits

into increases in sales.


• Longer opening hours.

• Changes to the use of space in terms of the goods sold. For example, selling smaller high

value items can be more efficient than selling bulky high value items.

3.35 As new technologies emerge retailers become better and therefore more efficient at selling and this

is reflected in increases in productivity over time. At present there are no official estimates of how

retailer productivity growth might grow over time. We consider it appropriate to allow for

comparison goods sales from existing retail floorspace to grow at 2.0% per annum in real terms.

However, in some centres productivity growth may be as high as between 2.5% and 3.0% for some

comparison goods and 0.5% for convenience goods.

3.36 Higher productivity rates tend to be found in centres where floorspace is constrained and demand

high, for example, in historic centres such as Oxford and Cambridge. We have therefore set retail

productivity at 2.0% in Doncaster for comparison goods, as whilst much of the new floorspace in

the town centre is likely to be productive, we would expect higher productivity rates to occur in

some of the older floorspace in the centre.

Development Scenarios Assessed

3.37 The retail capacity forecasts in this report are updates of our previous forecasts with the benefit of

new findings from the household survey. We have prepared these on the basis of a scenario that

assumes Doncaster’s market share retains its existing market shares over the forecasting period by

meeting any identified for new development.

3.38 However, we are aware that there are a number of developments in the pipeline in competing

centres, which may increase the attractiveness of these centres. A summary of these developments

is highlighted in the table below.


Table 3.1

Development schemes planned for competing centres

Sheffield There are plans for a £500m Retail Quarter Project – this will include a 2,500 sq m John Lewis, 100 new shops, 200 apartments and health and leisure facilities. This project is due to start in Mid 2007 to be completed in 2010. The scheme is a partnership between Hammerson, development corporation Sheffield One and Sheffield City Council. Outline Planning Consent was granted on 6 th November 2006.

Barnsley There were plans for Multiplex to work on Barnsley’s regeneration project but this has now changed. The partners are now Ashcroft Estates PLC and The Guildhall Group (and are looking for another partner). 450,000 sq ft of retail space is planned and it is hoped to commence this year. Outline Planning Consent was granted on 25th November 2006.

Rotherham A significant town centre regeneration project called ‘Rotherham Renaissance’ is at the planning stage. The amount of retail development planned is unknown at this stage.

Source: CB Richard Ellis

3.39 However, the influence of these developments on Doncaster’s catchment area will be limited if this

competition is balanced by further improvements to Doncaster town centre. We explore this

further in our forecasts below.

Additional Scenario testing – High growth in internet sales,

3.40 Some research suggests that internet shopping will grow significantly over the next 10 years.

However, it is difficult to determine whether or not the growth of internet retail will, in the future,

impact significantly upon the need to provide new shop floorspace. For example, goods sold over

the internet may still come from conventional retail outlets (i.e. sales made over the internet may

still be taken from the shelves of normal shops). Moreover, whilst internet sales have increased

other special forms of trading (for example catalogue sales) are expected to decrease over the

forecasting period.

3.41 To explore further the potential impact of a significant increase in internet retailing for comparison

goods, we have included a further scenario in the study which assumes special forms of trading will

increase significantly up to 2012 before levelling off.

3.42 We have not provided a scenario for convenience goods as these goods ordered online are picked

and then despatched from the shelves of existing food stores. Therefore, the impact on the need to

provide floorspace for convenience goods is likely to be limited.

3.43 As it is more common for comparison goods to be dispatched from warehouses rather than the

shelves of existing stores, we have provided a scenario investigating the likely impact on the need


to plan for new retail floorspace if a significant takeover of retail floorspace occurs. These

forecasts have been advised by data consultancy Experian.

Format of the REASN Model Tables

3.44 The detailed REASN Model Tables for both scenarios are set out in Appendix 4A. Table 1 sets out

the population forecast for each of the 16 catchment zones. Table 2 indicates per capita

expenditure, growth in that expenditure, and total catchment area expenditure by zone for

convenience and comparison goods over the period 2007 to 2021. For each shopping destination

in the study area, Table 3a, b, c, d or e sets out the pattern of weighted average market shares of

catchment area convenience and comparison goods expenditure which is attracted from the

catchment area to that destination. The market shares in Tables 3a, b, c, d and e are based on

the detailed results by goods category obtained from the household interview survey, and set out in

Tables 3a, b, c, d or e (i) for convenience goods and 3a, b, c , d or e (ii) for comparison goods.

Tables 4a, b, c, d and e are the product of Table 2 (catchment area expenditure) and Tables 3a, b,

c, d and e respectively. Tables 5a, b, c, d and e compare the expenditure attracted by each

shopping destination and hence sales in each, with existing shop floorspace and indicate the

resulting capacity for additional shop floorspace. In each case, the top line of the relevant Table 5

(spending by catchment area residents) is taken from the bottom line of the corresponding Table 4.

As appropriate, an allowance is then made for expenditure by visitors from outside the catchment

area covered by the household interview survey, as described above.

THE RETAIL CAPACITY FORECASTS

3.45 In Table 3.2, we summarise the REASN Model forecasts of future retail capacity in each shopping

destination modelled at each forecasting date. These forecasts are taken from the bottom line of

the respective Table 5 in Appendix 4A, rounded to the nearest 50 sq m net. Negative figures

indicate an over supply of existing shop floorspace, and hence no capacity for any additional

floorspace.

Table 3.2

Summary of Retail Capacity Forecasts

Goods/Location 2011 (sq m net) 2016 (sq m net) 2021 (sq m net)

Convenience Goods:

Doncaster Town Centre

Non-town centre locations

Mexborough Town Centre

Thorne Town Centre

650

-9,100

-1,500

-500

1,450

- 7,100

-1,450

-450

2,400

-4,750

-1,350

-400


Comparison Goods:


Lakeside Village



Thorne Town Centre

6,800

1,050

-18,250

450

100

16,500

2,550

-8,200

750

250

27,850

4,250

3,500

1,050

400

Source: REASN Model forecasts in Appendix 4A, rounded to the nearest 50 sq m net.

Notes: The forecasts are cumulative, ie the later figures include the earlier.

Convenience Goods Forecasts

Doncaster town centre

3.46 Table 5a in Appendix 4A shows that in January 2007, the foodstores in Doncaster town centre

were achieving combined sales of £493m, at a combined average sales density of £8,390 per sq

m net. Table 5a (i) shows that based on estimated company average densities, the combined sales

density of the main food and convenience stores in Doncaster town centre in 2007 was expected to

be £8,245 per sq m net. Therefore, these stores are estimated to be trading slightly above the

expected level based on estimated company averages. This reflects the good market share of

catchment area expenditure on convenience goods attracted to existing food stores in Doncaster

town centre.

3.47 As indicated in Table 3.2 under scenario 1 there will be a need for up to 650 sq m net by 2011,

this will increase over the forecasting period to up to 1,450 sq m net by 2016 and further to 2,400

sq m net by 2021, if forecast trends occur. This suggests that there is sufficient capacity to support

a new large food store in the town centre over the forecasting period.

Non-town centre food stores

3.48 The REASN Model shows that in 2007 the non-town centre main food stores as a group are

overtrading. This is not surprising as a significant amount of new food store floor space that has

opened in Doncaster since the last household survey was undertaken in 2001. This includes the

Tesco Extra store at Woodfield Plantation and a number of discount stores. Thus Table 3.2 shows

that in 2007, there will be no capacity for any additional convenience goods floorspace outside the

town centre. This oversupply is projected to continue throughout the forecasting period. If forecast

trends occur, this oversupply will diminish overtime as the catchment area’s population and

expenditure increase, reducing to 4,750 sq m net of new floorspace by 2021.



3.49 We estimate that in 2007, the main food stores in Mexborough town centre were together trading

below the level expected based on estimated company averages. After allowing for their sales

densities to fall to that level, Table 3.2 shows that there is unlikely to be sufficient expenditure to

support additional convenience goods floorspace in Mexborough town centre over the forecasting

period.

Thorne Town Centre

3.50 We estimate that in 2001, the main food stores in Thorne town centre were trading well below the

level based on estimated company averages. After allowing for their sales densities to increase to

the expected level, table 3.2 shows that there is unlikely to be sufficient expenditure to support

additional food store development in Thorne town centre.

3.51 It is important to note that the convenience goods retail capacity forecasts set out in Table 3.2 are

theoretical maxima. This is because they are based on the assumption that sales densities in the

existing main foodstores will all fall to currently estimated company average levels. However, an

average is only an average; and the more attractive stores will continue to trade at levels above the

company average. It would therefore not be realistic to plan on the basis that such an across the

board reduction in sales densities should or would occur.

3.52 To summarise, we consider that catchment area expenditure could support an additional food

store in Doncaster town centre by 2021. A new food store could provide for the main food and

top-up food shopping needs of shoppers visiting Doncaster town centre. This would further

enhance the attractiveness of Doncaster town centre to shoppers and support its role as a sub-

regional centre.

3.53 We consider that there is unlikely to be sufficient quantitative need to support additional food store

development in Thorne or Mexborough over the forecasting period. The substantial convenience

store floorspace outside Doncaster town centre means that a quantitative need for additional out of

centre food store floorspace is unlikely to arise over the forecasting period.

Comparison Goods Forecasts


3.54 Table 3.2 shows that there will be capacity in terms of expenditure to support a further extension to

Doncaster’s shopping offer over the forecasting period. The increase in expenditure in the

catchment area is forecast to support up to about 6,850 sq m net additional comparison goods


shop floorspace in the town centre by 2011, rising to about 16,500 sq m net by 2011, and further

to about 27,850 sq m net by 2021, if forecast trends occur.

3.55 These are substantial capacity forecasts, however, they should be regarded with some caution at

this time. As identified in Section 2, the extension to the Frenchgate Centre has led to a short term

increase in shop vacancy in the town centre. Whilst we consider this is likely to last for only a few

years as some retailers choose to relocate within the centre, in the short term, efforts should be

concentrated on letting existing vacant units. This should be combined with the regeneration of

those secondary areas that have been vacated as existing retailers have sought to relocate within

the town centre.

3.56 We therefore consider that the above retail capacity forecasts should be regarded as a broad

guide to the order of magnitude of potential retail capacity in the town centre in the longer term.

However, the forecasts suggest that the Council should begin planning, through the development

plan, for a further substantial extension to the town centre to open nearer the end of the

forecasting period.

Lakeside Village Centre

3.57 Table 3.2 shows that we forecast only modest capacity for additional comparison goods floorspace

at Lakeside Village factory outlet centre. Our forecasts are for up to about 1,050 sq m net by

2011, rising to about 2,550 sq m net by 2016, and further to about 4,250 sq m net by 2021.

However, any proposed new retail floorspace would be subject to the sequential approach. If the

Council decides to plan for a further large scale town centre development for later in the

forecasting period, it would be unlikely that further comparison goods retail floorspace at Lakeside

Village would comply with the sequential approach.


3.58 We estimate that the retail warehouses and comparison retail floorspace in existing food stores are

collectively trading below the level based on estimated company averages. This is not surprising

as in the past five years, substantial new out of centre comparison retail floorspace has opened in

Doncaster and existing food stores have further increased their non-food retail offer. After

allowing sales densities in this existing retail floorspace to rise to the level based on estimated

company averages, we forecast that there will be some capacity for additional retail warehouse

floorspace in Doncaster towards the end of the forecasting period. Table 3.2 shows that an over

supply of retail warehouse floorspace will remain at 2016, but that by 2021 there should be

capacity for additional floorspace, up to about 3,500 sq m net additional retail warehouse

floorspace, if forecast trends occur. The location of any such proposed new retail development


would need to be subject to the sequential approach; so it is not necessarily the case that it could

or should be provided in the form of out-of-centre retail warehouses.

3.59 These forecasts are on the assumption that any new retail warehouse floorspace would be

developed in the form of general retail warehouses selling a variety of (mainly bulky) comparison

goods. Thus they assume sales densities for new floorspace appropriate to such development.

Retail floorspace trading at a higher sales density should be encouraged to locate in Doncaster

town centre.


3.60 Our REASN Model shows that Mexborough town centre has a low average sales density for

comparison goods shops, but one, which is realistic for a centre of its size and type. Table 3.2

shows that we forecast capacity for up to about 450 sq m net additional comparison goods

floorspace by 2011, rising to about 750 sq m net by 2011, and further to about 1,100 sq m net by

2016. However, these forecasts are largely theoretical, in that we would expect shop rental values

in Mexborough town centre to be too low to make such new development financially viable. The

amount of such forecast capacity is also too small to justify a significant new town centre

development. In practice, we consider that there should be scope for minor extensions to existing

floorspace through changes of use, extensions to existing buildings and small scale infill

developments – all of which should, in principle, enhance the attractiveness of this small town

centre as a shopping destination.

Thorne Town Centre

3.61 As with Mexborough, we consider that Thorne town centre is currently trading at a low sales density

(lower than that of the larger Mexborough town centre), but one which is not surprising in view of

the small scale of the centre and its limited retail offer. Table 3.2 shows that we forecast some

limited capacity for additional comparison goods retail floorspace, 100 sq m net in 2011, rising to

about 250 sq m net by 2016, and further to about 400 sq m net by 2021. Again, we do not

expect a significant new comparison goods town centre retail development to be financially viable.

However, any small scale developments or changes of use to comparison goods retailing should

have the potential to improve the attractiveness of the centre, if they can be achieved.

Additional Scenario testing – High growth in internet sales

3.62 As explained above, internet sales of comparison goods are also expected to grow significantly

over the forecasting period. However, this is likely to be off-set in part by decreases in expenditure

on other forms of non-store trading, for example catalogue shopping. We consider this additional

scenario, therefore, is a worst case scenario as it assumes no new retail floorspace will be required

to support the expected growth in internet sales.


3.63 This results in the following reductions in the retail forecasts for comparison goods, as set out in

Appendix 4B and summarised in Table 3.3.

Table 3.3

Summary of Retail Capacity Forecasts

Goods/Location 2011 (sq m net) 2016 (sq m net) 2021 (sq m net)

Comparison Goods:


Lakeside Village



Thorne Town Centre

5,450

850

-23,350

400

50

14,950

2,300

-13,950

650

200

26,100

4,000

-2,300

1000

350

Source: REASN Model forecasts in Appendix 4B, rounded to the nearest 50 sq m net.

Notes: The forecasts are cumulative, ie the later figures include the earlier.

3.64 These results show that an increase in spending on the internet will reduce the need for new

floorspace. However, these reductions are not significant (when compared with the forecasts set

out in paragraph 3.2) and there is still a need to plan for new development, particularly in the

town centre.

OVERVIEW

3.65 If forecast trends occur, we conclude that there will be capacity for additional food store floorspace

in Doncaster town centre over the forecasting period. This could be equivalent to one new large

food store in the town centre by 2021 or it could be provided through small format town centre

food stores or small scale extensions to existing main food stores, or some combination thereof.

We are unable to forecast capacity for any new food superstores outside the town centre, as the

forecasts identify an oversupply of convenience floorspace at this time. The need identified for new

convenience floorspace in the town centre is, in our view, linked to the number of shoppers visiting

the centre for comparison goods and choosing to undertake a main food or top-up shop in the

same visit.

3.66 The forecasts identify an oversupply of convenience floorspace in Thorne and Mexborough over the

forecasting period. This means there will be limited scope for additional food store floorspace

unless significant new development attracting from a wide catchment area can be bought into

either of these centres.

3.67 We conclude that there will be capacity to support further new comparison goods retail

development in Doncaster town centre by 2021, if forecast trends occur. We recommend that the

Council starts to consider how further new comparison goods retail development might be


accommodated in the town centre, with a view to identifying a site or sites for development or

redevelopment.

3.68 We have identified some capacity for the growth of Lakeside Village factory outlet centre. We

advise that this should be only a small-scale addition and that there is no current or short term

need to promote a large extension to this centre. We also expect some capacity for additional

retail warehouse floorspace to arise in Doncaster by 2021.

3.69 Whilst we have forecast some theoretical capacity for additional comparison goods floorspace in

Mexborough and Thorne town centres, we conclude that substantial new town centre development

is unlikely to be practicable in either centre. Instead, we expect small scale incremental expansion

of floorspace, through extensions of existing buildings, change of use, etc.

USE AND REVIEW OF THE FORECASTS

3.70 Finally, and in accordance with our usual practice, we must emphasise that all expenditure based

forecasts of future shop floorspace capacity are based on imperfect data and contain a number of

assumptions. Our forecasts set out in this report are based on the most up to date and reliable

information currently available to us. They are intended to be exploratory rather than prescriptive;

and as indications of the likely order of magnitude of future shop floorspace capacity (if forecast

trends are realised), rather than as absolute statements of need or rigid limits to future growth.

Our shorter term forecasts are likely to be more reliable than our longer term forecasts. All the

forecasts should be periodically revised as necessary in the light of actual population and

expenditure growth, and as each major phase of development is completed and its effects become

measurable. In particular, we recommend that our forecasts be updated in due course as required

by the guidance set out in PPS6.


4. QUALITATIVE UPDATE

4.1 PPS6 explains that an assessment of qualitative need for new shopping facilities in the Borough

should be based on:

• The quantitative need for new development;

• The degree to which existing shops may be overtrading;

• Meeting a qualitative deficiency in existing provision;

• Achieving an appropriate distribution of locations to improve accessibility for the whole

community; and,

• Providing a range of sites which genuinely meet the needs of the whole community.

4.2 We have therefore updated the evaluation matrix used in our 2001 and 2004 reports, and include

it as Table 4.1 below. We have focused Table 4.1 on Doncaster; but have also commented below

on qualitative need in Mexborough and Thorne.

4.3 Table 4.1 represents our judgement as to how these 5 criteria should be applied to assess the need

for additional foodstores, town centre comparison retail floorspace, and large format retail

warehouses that sites in the town centre may be unable to accommodate. It takes account of the

results of our retail capacity forecasts, assessment of the vitality and viability of Doncaster town

centre, and our knowledge of existing shopping facilities in Doncaster.

Food Stores in Doncaster

4.4 In qualitative terms we consider the town centre would benefit from a well-located main food store

to meet the needs of those undertaking comparison goods shopping in the centre and the needs of

new town centre residents. We also forecast a quantitative need for a new main food store in

Doncaster town centre that could be supported by growth in expenditure.

4.5 In all other respects, Doncaster is well provided for with a wide range of modern food stores.

There are therefore no obvious qualitative deficiencies in the existing provision of food stores in

Doncaster and the immediately surrounding settlements. If any additional supermarkets are

located in existing district or local centres, or in areas of deficiency of access to food shopping, they

would be likely to assist the achievement of sustainability and social inclusion objectives. However,

the existing provision of food stores already meet community needs to a substantial degree.

Overall therefore, we conclude that there is only a weak qualitative need for additional food store

floorspace in Doncaster outside the town centre.


Town Centre Comparison Goods Development

4.6 Our REASN Model interim retail capacity forecasts set out above show that there is likely to be

capacity for substantial additional comparison goods floorspace in the town centre from about

2011 onwards. Development on this scale would be unlikely to have a significant adverse impact

on other town centre shops. Rather, it would further reinforce the attractiveness of the town centre

as a whole, and strengthen its competitive position in the sub-regional hierarchy of shopping

centres.

4.7 However, our survey of the town centre identified 107 vacant units (18.4% of existing stock). The

Council should focus initiatives on ensuring these units are let in the short term. For more

peripheral retail areas, including the Waterdale Centre and Silver Street, more significant

regeneration initiatives may be needed to improve these parts of the centre.

4.8 This is one of the principal qualitative deficiencies in the town centre, and might provide an

opportunity to accommodate expected retail growth requirements in the future. This would comply

with the sequential approach and contribute to the achievement of sustainability and social

inclusion objectives.

4.9 Our review of the centre’s vitality and viability also found that the centre should seek to acheive a

better balance of the type of retailers in the centre by increasing the number of quality fashion

retailers and making provision for independent retailers in the centre.

4.10 Overall, we conclude that the recent extension to the Frenchgate Centre will substantially improve

the qualitative retail attractiveness of Doncaster town centre for the next few years. However, we

expect a need for further new town centre development to grow thereafter, to the point where

substantial such development will be needed by 2021.

Large format (retail warehouse) Comparison Goods Development

4.11 There is already a wide range of retail warehouses covering most trade groups, a factory outlet

centre, and substantial comparison goods floorspace in food superstores in Doncaster. Most of

these are modern, with the great majority having been built in the last 20 years. There are

therefore no substantial qualitative deficiencies in the provision of out-of-centre comparison goods

shopping in Doncaster at present. Further such development may not comply with the sequential

approach (particularly if the next phase of town centre redevelopment is being promoted), and

may run counter to sustainability objectives. Local community needs are already well met by the

existing wide range of out-of-centre retailing (supplemented by district and local centres); and

Doncaster is already competitive with other large towns in the sub-region for this form of shopping.

We conclude that there is no strong need for additional retail warehouses or comparison goods

floorspace in food superstores.



4.12 We have not identified capacity for additional foodstore floorspace in Mexborough town centre.

However, there may be a qualitative need for additional foodstore floorspace, which would not

harm the town centre, and would comply with planning objectives to sustain and enhance the

vitality and viability of the town centre. It would also assist in meeting local community

requirements, and therefore reducing the need for local residents to travel elsewhere for their food

shopping.

4.13 For comparison goods, we have identified theoretical capacity for only modest additional retail

floorspace. This is commensurate with the district centre role of Mexborough in the hierarchy of

retail centres, which limits its ability to attract and retain multiple retailers. In this context, we

consider that there is no pressing need for more town centre comparison goods retail floorspace.

Whilst such development would be likely improve the town centre, it would be very difficult to make

financially viable, and probably would not be achievable in practice.

Thorne Town Centre

4.14 We have not identified capacity for additional convenience goods floorspace in Thorne. However,

it is likely that residents may be travelling some distance to other food stores in Doncaster or

elsewhere. Therefore additional food store floorspace in Thorne could improve the range of choice

of foodstores, and reduce the need to travel elsewhere. It would also improve the provision of

foodstores in qualitative terms, and the ability of foodstores in Thorne to meet local community

needs. We therefore conclude that there is a qualitative need for an additional supermarket in

Thorne.

4.15 Thorne has a very small town centre, with a limited range of comparison goods shops. We have

not been able to forecast any substantial capacity for additional comparison goods floorspace.

Within the context of Thorne’s role as the town centre of a small market town, we do not consider

there is any pressing need for additional comparison goods retail floorspace. As with

Mexborough, we would expect such development to be very difficult to achieve in practice.


Table 4.1

Updated Evaluation of Retail Need in Doncaster

Criteria Food Stores Town Centre Comparison Goods

Large format retailing (e.g. bulky goods retail warehousing)

1. Quantiative need for new development

Capacity for a large new food store (or equivalent floorspace in smaller new food stores or store extensions).

Capacity for substantial additional floorspace by 2021; up to about 2,400 sq m net.

No need for retail warehousing until later in the forecasting period (after 2016).

2. The degree to which existing shops are overtrading

The town centre food stores are overtrading. The food stores outside Doncaster town centre are undertrading.

The town centre is trading as expected for a large sub-regional centre.

The retail warehouses as a group are overtrading.

3. Qualitative deficiencies in existing provision

No large modern food store centrally located within the town centre.

The opening of the Frenchgate Centre has led to vacancies in some secondary areas of the town centre e.g. Waterdale Centre now in need of redevelopment. There are high numbers of vacancies in the town centre. There is a need to improve and extend the quality of fashion stores in the centre.

Wide range of retail warehouses, factory outlet centre, and food superstores covering all trade groups. No substantial deficiencies.

4. Achieving an appropriate distribution of locations to improve accessibility for the whole community.

New stores in existing district or local centres, would assist sustainability. Otherwise, no requirement for additional floorspace at this time, unless new stores are located in significantly under-served areas.

Additional comparison floorspace in the centre over the forecasting period would support the centre’s role as a sub-regional shopping centre.

Further retail warehouse floorspace that is not located in the town centre may undermine the viability of further new development in Doncaster town centre.

5. Providing a range of sites which genuinely meets the needs of the whole community.

Existing wide range of food stores already meets community needs.

The regeneration of some secondary areas of the town centre could encourage new retailers to locate in Doncaster town centre.

Local community needs already well met by the wide range of out-of-centre retailing.

Source: CB Richard Ellis


5. SUMMARY OF CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

5.1 In preparing this report, we have undertaken a detailed analysis of the vitality and viability of

Doncaster town centre (including a new on-street interview survey of shoppers and other town

centre users). We have also updated our previous forecasts of retail capacity in Doncaster,

Mexborough and Thorne; and carried out a review of qualitative need for additional retail

development in each location. Our research is described in the foregoing sections of this report.

Our principal conclusions and recommendations are summarised below.


5.2 Overall, we consider that Doncaster is a vital and vibrant centre. In particular, our health check

identifies the following key points:-

• That Doncaster’s retail offer is broadly in line with the UK average. Going forward,

increases in the representation of fashion retailers and potentially improving the convenience

offer may enhance the centre’s offer.

• It would be beneficial to enhance the range of restaurant/cafes in the centre, coupled with

the potential to increase the level of on-street café seating.

• There is good demand from retailers to locate in Doncaster. Rents have also risen

considerably in recent years, while prime retail yields are currently keen. All of this points

towards a healthy centre with good future economic prospects.

• The level of shop unit vacancies has increased considerably in recent years in the town

centre. In the main, this can be put down to the recent opening of the Frenchgate extension,

and its wider effect on occupiers relocating in the centre. As a result, much of the identified

demand could potentially be satisfied by these vacant units being (re)let.

• In some cases, the retail environment of certain areas may be detracting from occupiers

locating in vacant units, such as at the Waterdale Centre. In these circumstances, more

radical intervention may be required through considering the redevelopment potential of

such areas. Residential uses might help to facilitate mixed use development in these more

secondary areas, or possibly securing an appropriate anchor tenant.

• Arguably, Doncaster has a limited evening economy, entertainment and cultural offer.

Increasing the range and diversity of this sector could strengthen the appeal of the centre.

• The environmental quality of the centre is good in prime retail areas. However, the quality

of the streetscape diminishes in more secondary areas. Overall, the general quality of the


retail environment is an increasingly important factor to shoppers and retailers alike. High

quality urban destinations can be a defining factor between competing centres.

• The on-street survey confirms that Doncaster continues to be a popular shopping

destination. It also highlights some of the issues discussed above – a relatively limited

evening economy, the need to attract further fashion retailers, and the importance of a

clean, high quality urban environment.

5.3 Whilst we consider that Doncaster is a healthy centre, there is, as in an all cases, the need for the

centre to evolve and improve. In turn, this will ensure that, in the future, the centre can continue to

compete effectively with other nearby shopping destinations.

The need for new convenience floorspace

5.4 We conclude that there will be capacity for additional food store floorspace in Doncaster town

centre over the forecasting period. This could be equivalent to one new large food store in the

town centre by 2021 or it could be provided through small format town centre food stores or small

scale extensions to existing main food stores, or some combination thereof. We are unable to

forecast capacity for any new food superstores outside the town centre, as the forecasts identify an

oversupply of convenience floorspace at this time. The need identified for new convenience

floorspace in the town centre is, in our view, linked to the number of shoppers visiting the centre for

comparison goods and choosing to undertake a main food shop in the same visit.

5.5 The forecasts identify an oversupply of convenience floorspace in Thorne and Mexborough over the

forecasting period. This means there will be limited scope for additional food store floorspace

unless significant new development attracting from a wide catchment area can be bought into

either of these centres.

The need for new comparison floorspace

5.6 In the short-term we consider the Council should seek to improve Doncaster town centre’s

shopping offer in qualitative terms by seeking to:

• Explore with other stakeholders, measures to ensure vacant units are re-let quickly,

• Work with centre managers to encourage more quality fashion stores to locate in the centre;

and,

• Identify locations that could meet the needs of independent retailers.

5.7 In the longer-term, we conclude that there will be capacity to support further new comparison

goods retail development in Doncaster town centre by 2021, if forecast trends occur. We

recommend that the Council starts to consider how further new comparison goods retail


development might be accommodated in the town centre, with a view to identifying a site or sites

for development or redevelopment.

5.8 We have identified some capacity for the growth of Lakeside Village factory outlet centre. We

advise that this, if at all, should be only a small-scale addition and that there is no current or short

term need to promote a large extension to this centre. We also expect some need for additional

retail warehouse/large store format floorspace to arise in Doncaster by 2021. However, it may

be more appropriate to meet this need in the town centre.

5.9 Whilst we have forecast some theoretical capacity for additional comparison goods floorspace in

Mexborough and Thorne town centres, we conclude that substantial new town centre development

is unlikely to be practicable in either centre. Instead, we expect small scale incremental expansion

of floorspace, through extensions of existing buildings, change of use, etc. Any proposals for such

development should in principle be welcomed.

Appendix 1

Catchment area plan

Appendix 2

Location of car parks in Doncaster town centre

Appendix 3

Results of the on-street interview survey

Appendix 4A

Retail capacity forecasts

Appendix 4B

Retail capacity forecasts – Internet Shopping

Appendix 5

Results of the household interview survey

Appendix 1

Appendix 2

Appendix 3

………..

Documents

Doncaster Metropolitan Borough Council€¦ · Doncaster Metropolitan Borough Council Doncaster Retail Study Update February 2007 CB Richard Ellis Kingsley House Wimpole Street London