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Document of

The World Bank

Report No: ICR1717

IMPLEMENTATION COMPLETION AND RESULTS REPORT

(IDA-41700,TF-90200, IDA-42940, IDA-45260, IDA-46350, IDA-46830, TF-94420,IDA-48130)

SERIES OF CREDITS

TOTALING

IN THE AMOUNT OF SDR 679.9 MILLION

(US$ 1,025 MILLION EQUIVALENT)

TO THE

UNITED REPUBLIC OF TANZANIA

FOR A

THE SECOND SERIES OF

POVERTY REDUCTION SUPPORT CREDITS (PRSCs 4 through 8)

September 1, 2011

Poverty Reduction and Economic Management 2

Africa Region

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TANZANIA - GOVERNMENT FISCAL YEAR

July 1 – June 30

CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS

(Exchange Rate Effective as of September 1, 2011)

Currency Unit Tanzania Shilling (T Sh)

US$1.00 T Sh 1,619

Weights and Measures

Metric System

ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS

ACGEN Accountant General ADB African Development Bank AML Anti–Money Laundering APL Adaptable Programmatic Loan AR Annual Review ART ASDP

Antiretroviral Therapy Agriculture Sector Development Program

ASDS Agriculture Sector Development Strategy ASLMs Agriculture Sector Lead Ministries BARA BEST

Business Activities Registration Act Business Environment Strengthening in Tanzania

BG Budget Guidelines BoT Bank of Tanzania BRELA Business Registration and Licensing Authority CAG CAS

Controller and Auditor General Country Assistance Strategy

CBG CCRO

Capacity Building Grant Certificates of Customary Rights of Occupancy

CDG CEM CFS

Council Development Grant Country Economic Memorandum Consolidated Funds Service

CIDA Canadian International Development Agency CPIA CRW CSO

Country Policy and Institutional Assessment Crisis Response Window Civil Society Organization

CU Customs Union DAWASCO D by D

Dar es Salaam Water and Sewerage Cooperation Decentralization by Devolution

DC District Council DFID DP

Department for International Development Development Partner

DPG Development Partners Group DSA Debt Sustainability Analysis EAC East African Community EIA Environment Impact Assessment EITI EMA

Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative Environmental Management Act

ESF ESW EU

Exogenous Shock Facility Economic and Sector Work European Union

EWURA Energy Water Utility and Regulatory Authority FDI Foreign Direct Investment FEWS Food Early Warning System FIAS FQ

Foreign Investment Advisory Service Financial Quarter

FY Fiscal Year GBS General Budget Support GDP Gross Domestic Product GNFS GNI GoT

Good and Non-Factor Services Gross National Income Government of Tanzania

GWG Governance Working Group HBS Household Budget Survey HIPC HIV/AIDS

Heavily Indebted Poor Countries Human Immunodeficiency Virus/Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome

IAS International Accounting Standards ICR ICT IDA IEG IFMIS (IFMS)

Implementation Completion and Results Report Information and Communication Technologies International Development Association Independent Evaluation Group Integrated Financial Management Information System

IMF International Monetary Fund IMR INTOSAI IPT ISA IT

Infant Mortality Rate International Organization of Supreme Audit Intermittent Preventive Therapy International Standard on Auditing Information Technology

JAST JEBS

Joint Assistance Strategy for Tanzania Joint Evaluation of Budget Support

JICA Japan International Cooperation Agency JPD Joint Programming Document JSC Joint Steering Committee KFW Kreditanstalt fuer Wiederaufbau (KfW Development Bank) LGAs Local Government Authorities LGRP Local Government Reform Program LSMS LSRP

Living Standards Measurement Study Legal Sector Reform Program

MAIR MKUKUTA Annual Implementation Review M&E Monitoring and Evaluation MC Municipal Council MDAs Ministry Departments and Agencies MDRI Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative MEFMI Macro Economic Financial Management Institution MFI Microfinance Institution MEVT Ministry of Education and Vocational Training MLEYD Ministry of Labour, Employment and Youth Development MMMP MKUKUTA Monitoring Master Plan MMS MKUKUTA Monitoring System MoFEA Ministry of Finance and Economic Affairs MoJCA Ministry of Constitutional Affairs and Justice

MoU Memorandum of Understanding MoID MNRT

Ministry of Infrastructure Development Ministry of Natural Resources and Tourism

MTEF MTPP

Medium-Term Expenditure Framework Medium Term Pay Policy

MYR Mid-Year Review NACSAP National Anti-Corruption Strategy and Action Plan NAO National Audit Office NBS National Bureau of Statistics NDMC National Debt Management Committee NDS National Debt Strategy NEMA National Environmental Management Act NGOs Non-Governmental Organizations NGSRP National Strategy for Growth and Reduction of Poverty NMSF NRM

National Multi-Sectoral Framework Natural Resource Management

NSPS National Social Protection Strategy OC Other Charges (Non salary recurrent expenditure) OCGS Office of the Chief Government Secretary PAF PCCA

Performance Assessment Framework Prevention and Combating of Corruption Act

PCCB PE PE PEAP PEDP

Prevention and Combating of Corruption Bureau Public Enterprise Personal Emoluments Poverty Eradication Action Plan Primary Education Development Program

PEFAR Public Expenditure and Financial Accountability Review PER Public Expenditure Review PETS PFM PFM

Public Expenditure Tracking Survey Partnership Framework Memorandum Public Financial Management

PFMRP Public Financial Management Reform Program PHDR Poverty and Human Development Report PMO Prime Minister’s Office PMUs Procurement Management Units PO-PSM President’s Office—Public Service Management PMO-RALG Prime Minister’s Office—Regional Administration and Local Government PPP PPRA

Public Private Partnership Public Procurement Regulatory Authority

PRBS Poverty Reduction Budget Support PRGF PRS

Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility Poverty Reduction Strategy

PRSC Poverty Reduction Support Credit PS Permanent Secretary PSI PSC

Policy Support Instrument Public Service Commission

PSD Private Sector Development PSDS Private Sector Development Strategy PSIA PSM PSPIP

Poverty and Social Impact Analysis Public Service Management Public Service Pay and Incentive Policy

PSRC Parastatal Sector Reform Commission PSRP Public Service Reform Program

PwC PricewaterhouseCoopers QAG SA SASE

Quality Assurance Group Safeguard Assessment Selected Accelerated Salary Enhancement

SBAS Strategic Budget Allocation System SDS Service Delivery Surveys SEA SUMATRA SME

Strategic Environment Assessment Surface and Maritime Regulatory Authority Small and Medium Enterprises

SMP Statistical Master Plan SWAp Sectorwide Approach TANESCO TANROADS TB TG

Tanzania Electric Supply Company Ltd. Tanzania National Roads Agency Tuberculosis Thematic Group

THIS TIB

Tanzania HIV/AIDS Indicator Survey Tanzania Investment Bank

TSIP Transport Sector Investment Plan TMP Tax Modernization Program ToR Terms of Reference TPA TPA TRA

Tanzania Ports Authority Temporary Process Action Tanzania Revenue Authority

TWG Technical Working Group UK United Kingdom UNDP United Nations Development Programme USD United States Dollars VAT Value Added Tax VLC WGI

Village Land Certificate Worldwide Governance Indicator

Vice President:

Acting Country Director:

Sector Manager:

Task Team Leaders:

ICR Task Team Leader:

ICR Primary Author:

Obiageli Katryn Ezekwesili

Mercy Miyang Tembon

J. Humberto Lopez

Robert Johann Utz, Paolo B. Zacchia

Yutaka Yoshino

Peter Miovic

i

UNITED REPUBLIC OF TANZANIA

POVERTY REDUCTION SUPPORT CREDITS (PRSCs 4 through 8)

CONTENTS

Data Sheet

A. Basic Information

B. Key Dates

C. Ratings Summary

D. Sector and Theme Codes

E. Bank Staff

F. Results Framework Analysis

G. Ratings of Program Performance in ISRs

1. Program Context, Development Objectives and Design ................................................ 1 2. Key Factors Affecting Implementation and Outcomes ................................................ 10

3. Assessment of Outcomes .............................................................................................. 17 4. Assessment of Risk to Development Outcomes ........................................................... 22

5. Assessment of Bank and Borrower Performance ......................................................... 24 6. Lessons Learned............................................................................................................ 28 7. Comments on Issues Raised by Borrower/Implementing Agencies/Partners............... 30

Annex 1. Bank Lending and Implementation Support/Supervision Processes ................. 31

Annex 2. Program Performance ........................................................................................ 37 Annex 3. Tanzania PRSC 4-8 Series Reform Support Matrix (by PDO Areas for each

PRSC) ............................................................................................................... 41 Annex 4. Tanzania PRSC 4-8 Series Results Framework and Results at the time of

completion ........................................................................................................ 48

Annex 5. Beneficiary Survey Results .............................................................................. 51 Annex 6. Stakeholder Workshop Report and Results ..................................................... 51

Annex 7. Summary of Borrower's ICR and/or Comments on Draft ICR ....................... 51

Annex 8. Comments of Co-financiers and Other Partners/Stakeholders ........................ 51 Annex 9. List of Supporting Documents ........................................................................ 52

MAP .......................................................................................................................... 53

ii

Data Sheet

A. Basic Information

Program 1

Country Tanzania Program Name Tanzania PRSC-4

Program ID P095509 L/C/TF Number(s) IDA-41700,TF-90200

ICR Date 09/01/2011 ICR Type Core ICR

Lending Instrument DPL Borrower UNITED REPUBLIC

OF TANZANIA

Original Total

Commitment XDR 140.00M Disbursed Amount XDR 140.00M

Implementing Agencies

Ministry of Finance

Cofinanciers and Other External Partners African Development Bank (AfDB)

European Union (EU)

Canada

JAPAN

Netherlands

SWITZERLAND

GERMANY

IRELAND

Norway

Denmark

Finland

Sweden

United Kingdom Department for International Development (DfID)

Program 2

Country Tanzania Program Name

Tanzania Fifth

Poverty Reduction

Support Credit

Program ID P095657 L/C/TF Number(s) IDA-42940



OF TANZANIA

Original Total


iii


Ministry of Finance


European Union (EU)

Canada

JAPAN

Netherlands

SWITZERLAND

GERMANY

IRELAND

Norway

Denmark

Finland

Sweden


Program 3


Sixth Poverty

Reduction Support

Credit (PRSC6)




OF TANZANIA

Original Total



Ministry of Finance


European Union (EU)

Canada

JAPAN

Netherlands

SWITZERLAND

GERMANY

IRELAND

Norway

Denmark

Finland

Sweden


iv

Program 4


Tanzania Seventh

Poverty Reduction

Support Credit

Program ID P101230 L/C/TF Number(s) IDA-46350,IDA-

46830,TF-94420



OF TANZANIA

Original Total



Ministry of Finance


European Union (EU)

Canada

JAPAN

Netherlands

SWITZERLAND

GERMANY

IRELAND

Norway

Denmark

Finland

Sweden


Program 5


Tanzania Poverty

Reduction Support

Credit 8




OF TANZANIA

Original Total



Ministry of Finance

v


European Union (EU)

Canada

JAPAN

Netherlands

SWITZERLAND

GERMANY

IRELAND

Norway

Denmark

Finland

Sweden


B. Key Dates

Tanzania PRSC-4 - P095509

Process Date Process Original Date Revised / Actual

Date(s)

Concept

Review: 12/12/2005 Effectiveness: 07/18/2006

Appraisal: 03/14/2006 Restructuring(s):

Approval: 05/09/2006 Mid-term

Review:

Closing: 06/30/2007 06/30/2007

Tanzania Fifth Poverty Reduction Support Credit - P095657


Date(s)

Concept

Review: 10/12/2006 Effectiveness: 08/27/2007 08/27/2007



Review:

Closing: 06/30/2008 06/30/2008

Sixth Poverty Reduction Support Credit (PRSC6) - P101229


Date(s)

Concept


vi



Review:

Closing: 11/30/2009 11/30/2009

Tanzania Seventh Poverty Reduction Support Credit - P101230


Date(s)

Concept




Review:

Closing: 11/30/2010 11/30/2010

Tanzania Poverty Reduction Support Credit 8 - P116666


Date(s)

Concept




Review:

Closing: 08/31/2012 08/31/2012

C. Ratings Summary

C.1 Performance Rating by ICR

Overall Program Rating

Outcomes Moderately Satisfactory

Risk to Development Outcome Moderate

Bank Performance Satisfactory

Borrower Performance Moderately Satisfactory

C.2 Detailed Ratings of Bank and Borrower Performance (by ICR)

Overall Program Rating

Bank Ratings Borrower Ratings

Quality at Entry Satisfactory Government: Moderately

vii

Unsatisfactory

Quality of

Supervision: Satisfactory

Implementing

Agency/Agencies:

Moderately

Satisfactory

Overall Bank

Performance Satisfactory

Overall Borrower

Performance

Moderately

Satisfactory

C.3 Quality at Entry and Implementation Performance Indicators


Implementation

Performance Indicators

QAG Assessments

(if any) Rating:

Potential Problem

Program at any time

(Yes/No):

No Quality at Entry

(QEA) None

Problem Program at

any time (Yes/No): No

Quality of

Supervision (QSA) None

DO rating before

Closing/Inactive status Satisfactory


Implementation


QAG Assessments

(if any) Rating:

Potential Problem

Program at any time

(Yes/No):

No Quality at Entry

(QEA) Highly Satisfactory

Problem Program at


Quality of


DO rating before

Closing/Inactive status Satisfactory


Implementation


QAG Assessments

(if any) Rating:

Potential Problem

Program at any time

(Yes/No):

No Quality at Entry

(QEA) None

Problem Program at


Quality of


DO rating before

Closing/Inactive status

Moderately

Satisfactory

viii


Implementation


QAG Assessments

(if any) Rating:

Potential Problem

Program at any time

(Yes/No):

No Quality at Entry

(QEA) None

Problem Program at


Quality of


DO rating before


Moderately

Satisfactory


Implementation


QAG Assessments

(if any) Rating:

Potential Problem

Program at any time

(Yes/No):

No Quality at Entry

(QEA) None

Problem Program at


Quality of


DO rating before


Moderately

Satisfactory

D. Sector and Theme Codes


Original Actual

Sector Code (as % of total Bank financing)

Central government administration 40 40

General agriculture, fishing and forestry sector 25 25

General industry and trade sector 20 20

Health 15 15

Theme Code (as % of total Bank financing)

Administrative and civil service reform 14 14

Law reform 14 14

Poverty strategy, analysis and monitoring 29 29

Public expenditure, financial management and

procurement 29 29

Regulation and competition policy 14 14

ix


Original Actual



Crops 15 15


Health 15 15

Roads and highways 15 15


Health system performance 16 16

Infrastructure services for private sector

development 17 17


procurement 33 33

Regulation and competition policy 17 17

Rural policies and institutions 17 17


Original Actual



Crops 11 11

General education sector 11 11

Health 11 11

Roads and highways 22 22


Education for all 17 17


Infrastructure services for private sector

development 17 17


procurement 33 33

Rural policies and institutions 16 16

x


Original Actual




General education sector 15 15

General energy sector 20 20

Health 5 5



Education for all 10 10


Other public sector governance 30 30


procurement 30 30


Original Actual





General public administration sector 25 25



Environmental policies and institutions 14 14

Other financial and private sector development 14 14

Poverty strategy, analysis and monitoring 29 29


procurement 29 29

xi

E. Bank Staff


Positions At ICR At Approval

Vice President: Obiageli Katryn Ezekwesili Gobind T. Nankani

Country Director: Mercy Miyang Tembon

(Acting) Judy M. O'Connor

Sector Manager: J. Humberto Lopez Kathie L. Krumm

Task Team Leader: Paolo B. Zacchia Robert Johann Utz

ICR Team Leader: Yutaka Yoshino

ICR Primary Author: Peter Miovic



Vice President: Obiageli Katryn Ezekwesili Hartwig Schafer (Acting)


(Acting) Judy M. O'Connor


Task Team Leader: Paolo B. Zacchia Robert Johann Utz





Vice President: Obiageli Katryn Ezekwesili Obiageli Katryn Ezekwesili


(Acting) John McIntire


Task Team Leader: Paolo B. Zacchia Paolo B. Zacchia












xii










F. Results Framework Analysis

Program Development Objectives (from Program Document) This PRSC series supports the implementation of the Country Assistance Strategy and

contributes to the achievement of Tanzania’s Growth and Poverty Reduction Strategy

(MKUKUTA) objectives in several ways: by funding MKUKUTA implementation; by

fostering policy reform and institutional changes in the outcome areas; and by supporting

the development of government systems for the implementation and monitoring of

MKUKUTA. The PRSC focuses on the following development objectives: (i) reduce

income poverty, (ii) improve key human development objectives, and (iii) improve the

capacity of the Government to design and implement development policies in a

transparent and efficient manner.

(a) PDO Indicator(s)


Indicator Baseline

Value

Original Target

Values (from

approval

documents)

Formally

Revised

Target

Values

Actual Value

Achieved at

Completion or

Target Years

Indicator 1 : Credit to Private Sector (% of GDP)

Value

(quantitative or

Qualitative)

7.9 % 13% 17%

Date achieved 12/31/2005 12/31/2010 12/31/2010

Comments

(incl. %

achievement)

Fully achieved

xiii

Indicator 2 : "Doing Business" Rank

Value

(quantitative or

Qualitative)

140 Steady

improvement 128 (DB 2011)

Date achieved 12/31/2005 12/31/2010 12/31/2010

Comments

(incl. %

achievement)

Tanzania's DB ranking continued to decline 3 years in row from DB

2008 report to DB 2011 report.

Indicator 3 : Agricultural GDP growth (%)

Value

(quantitative or

Qualitative)

5.4 % 10% 3.2%

Date achieved 12/31/2005 12/31/2010 12/31/2010

Comments

(incl. %

achievement)

Off-track

Indicator 4 : Rural roads rehabilitation (km)

Value

(quantitative or

Qualitative)

4,500 15,000 N/A

Date achieved 12/31/2005 12/31/2010 12/31/2010

Comments

(incl. %

achievement)

This was dropped as an indicator in the later PRSC operations in the

series.

Indicator 5 :

Proportion of children under two years that receive three doses of

vaccine against diphtheria, pertussis (whopping cough), tetanus, and

hepatitis B (%)

Value

(quantitative or

Qualitative)

71% 90% 88%

Date achieved 12/31/2005 12/31/2010 12/31/2010

Comments

(incl. %

achievement)

In the later operations. the target value was modified to 85%, which was

achieved.

Indicator 6 : National HIV prevalence in the 15 to 24 years age group

Value

(quantitative or

Qualitative)

7.5% 6% 2.4%

Date achieved 12/31/2005 12/31/2010 06/30/2008

Comments

(incl. %

achievement)

Fully achieved.

xiv

Indicator 7 : Net primary school enrolment

Value

(quantitative or

Qualitative)

94.8% 99% 95.4%

Date achieved 12/31/2005 12/31/2010 12/31/2010

Comments

(incl. %

achievement)

Not achieved but positive progress.

Indicator 8 : Transition rate from standard VII to Form I (%)

Value

(quantitative or

Qualitative)

36.1% 50% 43.9%

Date achieved 12/31/2005 12/31/2010 06/30/2010

Comments

(incl. %

achievement)

It reached 56.7% in 2007/08, but subsequently declined.

Indicator 9 : Gross tertiary education enrolment ratio

Value

(quantitative or

Qualitative)

0.5% 10% 5.3%

Date achieved 12/31/2005 12/31/2010 12/31/2010

Comments

(incl. %

achievement)

In the later operations in the series, the target value was modified to 6%,

which was not achieved. Progress on track

Indicator 10 : Gross enrolment ratio higher education

Value

(quantitative or

Qualitative)

0.27% 6% 5.3%

Date achieved 12/31/2005 12/31/2010 06/30/2010

Comments

(incl. %

achievement)

The MKUKUTA target was later changed to 2.8% by 2010, which was

met. This was dropped as an indicator in the later PRSC operations in

the series.

Indicator 11 : Percentage of the population that has access to clean and safe water

from a piped or protected source

Value

(quantitative or

Qualitative)

(Rural) 53.5%

(Urban) 73 %

(Rural) 65%

(Urban) 90%

(Rural) 57.8%

(Urban) 86%

Date achieved 12/31/2005 12/31/2010 12/31/2010

Comments

(incl. %

achievement)

Not achieved but positive progress.

xv

Indicator 12 : Quarterly NACSAP implementation reports published and discussed

(number)

Value

(quantitative or

Qualitative)

4 4

Date achieved 12/31/2005 12/31/2010

Comments

(incl. %

achievement)

Indicator 13 : Current pay as a proportion of government's pay target (%)

Value

(quantitative or

Qualitative)

86% 100% 90%

Date achieved 12/31/2005 12/31/2010 12/31/2010

Comments

(incl. %

achievement)

The later operations in the series revised the target to 90% which was

achieved.

Indicator 14 : Percentage of court cases outstanding for two years or more (%)

Value

(quantitative or

Qualitative)

70% 40% 13%

Date achieved 12/31/2005 12/31/2010 12/31/2010

Comments

(incl. %

achievement)

Fully achieved.

Indicator 15 : Number of strategic plans of central and sector ministries containing a

strategic objective to implement decentralization by devolution

Value

(quantitative or

Qualitative)

1 All N/A

Date achieved 12/31/2005 12/31/2010 12/31/2010

Comments

(incl. %

achievement)

Indicator 16 : Recurrent budget deviation

Value

(quantitative or

Qualitative)

18% 10% 12.7%

Date achieved 12/31/2005 12/31/2010 12/31/2010

Comments

(incl. %

achievement)

Not achieved. Positive progress.

xvi

Indicator 17 : Quality of NAO Audit Report

Value

(quantitative or

Qualitative)

NAO starting to

introduce INTOSAI

and ISA

Fully compliant

with

international

standards

9 out of 10

Afrosai 2

conditions were

met

Date achieved 12/31/2005 12/31/2010 12/31/2010

Comments

(incl. %

achievement)

Not fully achieved, but on track.

Indicator 18 : Delay in submission of NAO Audit Report to Parliament

Value

(quantitative or

Qualitative)

6 months 0 month 0 month

Date achieved 12/31/2005 12/31/2010 12/31/2010

Comments

(incl. %

achievement)

Fully achieved.

Indicator 19 : Number of procuring entities complying with the Public Procurement

Act 2004

Value

(quantitative or

Qualitative)

10% 80% 73%

Date achieved 12/31/2005 12/31/2010 12/31/2010

Comments

(incl. %

achievement)

Not achieved. But positive progress.


Indicator Baseline

Value

Original Target

Values (from

approval

documents)

Formally

Revised

Target

Values

Actual Value

Achieved at

Completion or

Target Years

Indicator 1 : Credit to Private sector

Value

(quantitative or

Qualitative)

Tsh 1.2 bn

30% annual

increase (Tsh 4.5

bn by 2010)

Tsh 5.2 bn

Date achieved 06/30/2005 12/31/2010 06/30/2010

Comments

(incl. %

achievement)

Fully achieved.

xvii

Indicator 2 : "Doing Business" Rank

Value

(quantitative or

Qualitative)

150 Steady

improvement 128 (DB 2011)

Date achieved 12/31/2005 12/31/2010 12/31/2010

Comments

(incl. %

achievement)

Tanzania's DB ranking continued to decline 3 years in row from DB

2008 to DB 2011.

Indicator 3 : Rural Development - Number of districts qualifying for top up grants (in

addition to base grants) according to agreed performance criteria

Value

(quantitative or

Qualitative)

122

Date achieved 12/31/2010

Comments

(incl. %

achievement)

Indicator 4 : Agriculture Sector Growth (%)

Value

(quantitative or

Qualitative)

5.8% 10% 3.2%

Date achieved 12/31/2005 12/31/2010 12/31/2010

Comments

(incl. %

achievement)

Off-track.

Indicator 5 : Electricity - Installed capacity (NW)

Value

(quantitative or

Qualitative)

1278 MW 1077 MW

Date achieved 12/31/2010 12/31/2010

Comments

(incl. %

achievement)

Not achieved. Positive progress from 889 MW in 2005.

Indicator 6 : Electricity - Reliability of supply (%)

Value

(quantitative or

Qualitative)

85%


Comments

(incl. %

achievement)

xviii

Indicator 7 : Electricity - Number of customers connected to national grid and off-

grid sources.

Value

(quantitative or

Qualitative)

20% 14.5%

Date achieved 12/31/2010 12/31/2010

Comments

(incl. %

achievement)

The PRSC target was introduced later for 12.9% by 2010, which was

achieved.

Indicator 8 : Proportion of children under 2 that receive three doses of vaccine

against diphtheria, pertussis, tetanus, and hepatitis B (%)

Value

(quantitative or

Qualitative)

71% 85% 88%

Date achieved 12/31/2005 12/31/2010 12/31/2010

Comments

(incl. %

achievement)

Fully achieved.


Value

(quantitative or

Qualitative)

4% 4% 2.4%

Date achieved 12/31/2005 12/31/2010 06/30/2008

Comments

(incl. %

achievement)

Fully achieved.

Indicator 10 : Net primary school enrolment (by gender)

Value

(quantitative or

Qualitative)

(Average) 94.8%

(Boys) 95.6%

(Girls) 93.9%

(Average) 99.0%

(Boys) 99.0%

(Girls) 99.0%

(Average) 95.4%

(Boys) N/A at

completion

(Girls) N/A at

completion

Date achieved 12/31/2005 12/31/2010 12/31/2010

Comments

(incl. %

achievement)

For gross primary enrollment rate: (average) 106.4, (boys) 107 and

(girls) 100

Indicator 11 : Transition rate from standard VII to Form I (by gender)

Value

(quantitative or

Qualitative)

(Average) 36.1%

(Boys) 36.6%

(Girls) 35.6%

(Average) 50%

(Boys) 50%

(Girls) 50%

(Average) 43.9%

(Boys) 48.3%

(Girls) 39.6%

Date achieved 12/31/2005 12/31/2010 12/31/2010

Comments

(incl. %

achievement)

No achieved.

xix

Indicator 12 : Gross enrolment ratio higher education

Value

(quantitative or

Qualitative)

0.27% 6% 5.3%

Date achieved 12/31/2005 12/31/2010 12/31/2010

Comments

(incl. %

achievement)


Indicator 13 : Percentage of the population that has access to clean and safe water

from a piped or protected source

Value

(quantitative or

Qualitative)

(Rural) 53.5%

(Urban) 73%

(Rural) 65%

(Urban) 90%

(Rural) 57.8%

(Urban) 86%

Date achieved 12/31/2005 12/31/2010 12/31/2010

Comments

(incl. %

achievement)


Indicator 14 : Quarterly NACSAP implementation reports published and discussed

(number)

Value

(quantitative or

Qualitative)

4 4

Date achieved 12/31/2005 12/31/2010

Comments

(incl. %

achievement)


Value

(quantitative or

Qualitative)

86% 100% 90%

Date achieved 12/31/2005 12/31/2010 12/31/2010

Comments

(incl. %

achievement)

The PRSC target set in a later operation in the series was 90% by 2010,

which was achieved.

Indicator 16 : Percentage of court cases outstanding for two years or more (%)

Value

(quantitative or

Qualitative)

70% 40% 13%

Date achieved 12/31/2005 12/31/2010 12/31/2010

Comments

(incl. %

achievement)

Fully achieved.

xx

Indicator 17 :

Share of total government budget allocated directly to LGAs, which

does not go through ministerial votes and is calculated on a formula

basis

Value

(quantitative or

Qualitative)

25%


Comments

(incl. %

achievement)


Value

(quantitative or

Qualitative)

18% 10% 12.7%

Date achieved 12/31/2005 12/31/2010 12/31/2010

Comments

(incl. %

achievement)


Indicator 19 : Quality of NAO Audit Report

Value

(quantitative or

Qualitative)

NAO starting to

introduce INTOSAI

and ISA

Fully compliant

with

international

standards

9 out of 10

AFROSAI 3

conditions met

Date achieved 12/31/2005 12/31/2010 12/31/2010

Comments

(incl. %

achievement)


Value

(quantitative or

Qualitative)


Date achieved 12/31/2005 12/31/2010 12/31/2010

Comments

(incl. %

achievement)

Indicator 21 : Number procurement entities complying with the Public Procurement

Act 2004

Value

(quantitative or

Qualitative)

N/A 80% 73%

Date achieved 12/31/2005 12/31/2010 12/31/2010

Comments

(incl. %

achievement)

Not achieved. Positive progress from 39% in FY06/07.

xxi


Indicator Baseline

Value

Original Target

Values (from

approval

documents)

Formally

Revised

Target

Values

Actual Value

Achieved at

Completion or

Target Years

Indicator 1 : Rural poverty head count

Value

(quantitative or

Qualitative)

39% 34% 37% (2007 HBS)

Date achieved 12/31/2001 12/31/2010 12/31/2010

Comments

(incl. %

achievement)

Based on the latest 2007 HBS survey data.

Indicator 2 : Under 5 years of age mortality

Value

(quantitative or

Qualitative)

112 79 81

Date achieved 12/31/2004 12/31/2010 12/31/2009

Comments

(incl. %

achievement)

Fully achieved.

Indicator 3 : Literacy of 15+ age group

Value

(quantitative or

Qualitative)

69% 80% 70%

Date achieved 12/31/2002 12/31/2010 12/31/2009

Comments

(incl. %

achievement)

The program document reported male only literacy rate (79%) for 2002.

The adult literacy rate for both male and female in 2002 was 69%.

Indicator 4 : WGI indicators on accountability

Value

(quantitative or

Qualitative)

-0.31 0 -0.14

Date achieved 12/31/2005 12/31/2010 12/31/2009

Comments

(incl. %

achievement)

Indicator 5 : WGI indicators on control of corruption

Value

(quantitative or

Qualitative)

-0.73 -0.20 -0.42

Date achieved 12/31/2005 12/31/2010 12/31/2010

Comments

xxii

(incl. %

achievement)

Indicator 6 : WGI indicators on government effectiveness

Value

(quantitative or

Qualitative)

-0.35 0 -0.42

Date achieved 12/31/2005 12/31/2008 12/31/2009

Comments

(incl. %

achievement)


Indicator Baseline

Value

Original Target

Values (from

approval

documents)

Formally

Revised

Target

Values

Actual Value

Achieved at

Completion or

Target Years


Value

(quantitative or

Qualitative)

39% 34% 37% (2007 HBS)

Date achieved 12/31/2001 12/31/2010 12/31/2010

Comments

(incl. %

achievement)

37% based on the latest HBS survey data in 2007.

Indicator 2 : Under 5 mortality (out of 1000 lives)

Value

(quantitative or

Qualitative)

112 79 81

Date achieved 12/31/2004 12/31/2010 12/31/2009

Comments

(incl. %

achievement)

Fully achieved.


Value

(quantitative or

Qualitative)

69% 80% 70%

Date achieved 12/31/2002 12/31/2010 12/31/2009

Comments

(incl. %

achievement)



xxiii


Value

(quantitative or

Qualitative)

-0.31 0 -0.14

Date achieved 12/31/2005 12/31/2010 12/31/2009

Comments

(incl. %

achievement)


Value

(quantitative or

Qualitative)

-0.73 -0.20 -0.42

Date achieved 12/31/2005 12/31/2010 12/31/2009

Comments

(incl. %

achievement)


Value

(quantitative or

Qualitative)

-0.35 0 -0.42

Date achieved 12/31/2005 12/31/2010 12/31/2009

Comments

(incl. %

achievement)


Indicator Baseline

Value

Original Target

Values (from

approval

documents)

Formally

Revised

Target

Values

Actual Value

Achieved at

Completion or

Target Years


Value

(quantitative or

Qualitative)

39% 34% 37% (HBS 2007)

Date achieved 12/31/2001 12/31/2010 12/31/2010

Comments

(incl. %

achievement)

37% based on the latest HBS survey (2007)

Indicator 2 : Under 5 mortality

Value

(quantitative or

Qualitative)

112 79 81 (2009 data)

Date achieved 12/31/2004 12/31/2010 12/31/2010

Comments Fully achieved based on 2009 (latest) data.

xxiv

(incl. %

achievement)


Value

(quantitative or

Qualitative)

69% 80% 70% (2009)

Date achieved 12/31/2002 12/31/2010 12/31/2010

Comments

(incl. %

achievement)




Value

(quantitative or

Qualitative)

-0.31 0 -0.14 (2009)

Date achieved 12/31/2005 12/31/2010 12/31/2010

Comments

(incl. %

achievement)

Based on the 2009 WGI (latest)


Value

(quantitative or

Qualitative)

-0.73 -0.20 -0.42 (2009)

Date achieved 12/31/2005 12/31/2010 12/31/2010

Comments

(incl. %

achievement)



Value

(quantitative or

Qualitative)

-0.35 0 -0.42 (2009)

Date achieved 12/31/2005 12/31/2010 12/31/2010

Comments

(incl. %

achievement)


xxv

(b) Intermediate Outcome Indicator(s)


Indicator Baseline Value

Original Target

Values (from

approval

documents)

Formally

Revised

Target

Values

Actual Value

Achieved at

Completion or

Target Years

Indicator 1 : Fiscal deficit (after grants)as % of GDP

Value

(quantitative or

Qualitative)

6% Consistent with

PRGF target 6.4%


5 12/31/2010 12/31/2010

Comments

(incl. % achievement) Not achieved. The target for 2010 was 5.7%.

Indicator 2 : Inflation rate

Value

(quantitative or

Qualitative)

4.5% Consistent with

PRGF target 10.6%


5 12/31/2010 12/31/2010

Comments

(incl. % achievement) Not achieved. Target for 2010 was between 8 and 10%.



Original Target

Values (from

approval

documents)

Formally

Revised

Target

Values

Actual Value

Achieved at

Completion or

Target Years

Indicator 1 : Fiscal deficit after grants (% of GDP mp)

Value

(quantitative or

Qualitative)

-3.4% Consistent with

PRGF target 6.4%


5 12/31/2010 12/31/2010

Comments

(incl. % achievement) Not achieved. PSI Target 5.7%

xxvi

Indicator 2 : Inflation rate (%, period average)

Value

(quantitative or

Qualitative)

4.1% Consistent with

PRGF target 10.6%


4 12/31/2010 12/31/2010

Comments

(incl. % achievement) Not achieved. PSI target 8-10%



Original Target

Values (from

approval

documents)

Formally

Revised

Target

Values

Actual Value

Achieved at

Completion or

Target Years

Indicator 1 : Fiscal deficit (after grants) as percent of GDP

Value

(quantitative or

Qualitative)

6% 4% (PSI target) 6.4%


5 12/31/2010 12/31/2010

Comments

(incl. % achievement) Not achieved. PSI target for 2010 was 5.7%

Indicator 2 : Inflation rate (average, FY)

Value

(quantitative or

Qualitative)

5.1% 7.3% 10.6%


5 12/31/2010 12/31/2010

Comments

(incl. % achievement) Not achieved. PSI target for 2010: 8-10%

Indicator 3 : Increase Ranking on "Doing Business"

Value

(quantitative or

Qualitative)

136 99 128 (DB 2011)


5 12/31/2010 12/31/2010

Comments

(incl. % achievement)

Not achieved. Tanzania's DB ranking declined 3 years in

row from DB 2008 to DB2011.

xxvii

Indicator 4 : Credit to private sector (% of GDP)

Value

(quantitative or

Qualitative)

8.9% 11.9% 17%


5 12/31/2010 12/31/2010

Comments

(incl. % achievement) Fully achieved.

Indicator 5 : Installed MW power capacity

Value

(quantitative or

Qualitative)

889 MW 1278 MW 1077 MW


5 12/31/2010 12/31/2010

Comments


Not achieved. Positive progress. PRSC target for 2010

introduced in a later operation was 130.

Indicator 6 : Reliability of power supply

Value

(quantitative or

Qualitative)

62% 71% 85%


5 12/31/2010 12/31/2010

Comments


Indicator 7 : Share of national and regional roads in good and fair

condition

Value

(quantitative or

Qualitative)

(Good)

47%

(Fair) 35%

(Good) 75%

(Fair) 20%

(Good) 56%

(Fair) 33%


5 12/31/2010 12/31/2010

Comments

(incl. % achievement) Not achieved. Positive progress.

Indicator 8 : Agriculture sector 3-year average growth rate

Value

(quantitative or

Qualitative)

4.4% 6% 3.9%


5 12/31/2010 12/31/2010

Comments

(incl. % achievement) Not achieved.

xxviii

Indicator 9 : Revenue received from concession and license in forestry,

as % of their estimated value

Value

(quantitative or

Qualitative)

N/A


Comments


34 billion Tsh collected in 2010 compared to 18 billion

(2009) and 22 billion (2007)

Indicator 10 : Number of districts qualifying for top up grants

Value

(quantitative or

Qualitative)

84 132 102


5 12/31/2010 12/31/2010

Comments

(incl. % achievement) Not achieved. Positive progress

Indicator 11 : % of passable rural roads (in good and fair condition)

Value

(quantitative or

Qualitative)

50% 75% 56%


5 12/31/2010 12/31/2010

Comments


Indicator 12 : Number of customers connected to national grid and off-grid

sources

Value

(quantitative or

Qualitative)

8.2% 11.1% 14.5%


5 12/31/2010 12/31/2010

Comments


Indicator 13 : % of children less than 2 years receiving 3 doses of vaccines

(%)

Value

(quantitative or

Qualitative)

71% 85% 88%


5 12/31/2010 12/31/2010

Comments


xxix

Indicator 14 : % of births attended by a skilled health worker

Value

(quantitative or

Qualitative)

41% 80% 51%


6 12/31/2010 12/31/2010

Comments


Not achieved. Positive progress. The PRSC target introduced

in a later operation was 65% by 2010.


Value

(quantitative or

Qualitative)

4% 4% 2.4% (FY07/08)


3 12/31/2010 12/31/2010

Comments


Indicator 16 : Net primary enrollment

Value

(quantitative or

Qualitative)

94.8%

(Boys)

95.6%

(Girls)

93.9%

99%

(Boys) 99%

(Girls) 99%

95.4%

(Boys) NA at

completion

(Girls) NA at

completion


5 12/31/2010 12/31/2010

Comments

(incl. % achievement) Gross primary enrollment 106.4 with boys 107, girls 100.

Indicator 17 : Qualified teacher/pupil ratio in primary education

Value

(quantitative or

Qualitative)

1:73 1:62 1:54


5 12/31/2010 12/31/2010

Comments


The target value was changed to 1:45 in a later operation,

which was met.

Indicator 18 : Gross tertiary education enrollment ratio

Value

(quantitative or

Qualitative)

0.27% 6% 5.3%


2 12/31/2010 12/31/2010

Comments


xxx

Indicator 19 : Percentage of the population that has access to clean and safe

water

Value

(quantitative or

Qualitative)

(Rural)

53%

(Urban)

73%

(Rural) 65%

(Urban) 90%

(Rural) 57.8%

(Urban) 86%


5 12/31/2010 12/31/2010

Comments


Indicator 20 : Number of grand corruption cases prosecuted as % of

investigated cases

Value

(quantitative or

Qualitative)

20% 50% N/A at completion


5 12/31/2010 12/31/2010

Comments


30 grand corruption cases prosecuted in 2010, compared to 1

(2007), 14 (2008), and 17 (2009).

Indicator 21 : % of court cases outstanding for 2 years or more

Value

(quantitative or

Qualitative)

58% 40% 13%


5 12/31/2010 12/01/2010

Comments



Value

(quantitative or

Qualitative)

86% 100% 90%


5 12/31/2010 12/31/2010

Comments


90%. The PRSC target in a later operation was 90% for

2010, which was fully achieved.

Indicator 23 : % of LGA expenditures calculated on a formula basis

Value

(quantitative or

Qualitative)

15% 25% 19.4%


7 12/31/2010 12/31/2010

Comments


xxxi


Value

(quantitative or

Qualitative)

18% 10% 12.7%


5 12/31/2010 12/31/2010

Comments


Indicator 25 : NAO starting to introduce INTOSAI and ISA

Value

(quantitative or

Qualitative)

On track

Fully compliant

with AFROSAI

3

9 out of 10

AFROSAI 3

conditions met


5 12/31/2010 12/31/2010

Comments



Value

(quantitative or

Qualitative)

6 months 0 months 0 month


5 12/31/2010 12/31/2010

Comments


Indicator 27 : Number of procuring entities complying with the Public

Procurement Act 2004

Value

(quantitative or

Qualitative)

39% 80% 73%


7 12/31/2010 12/31/2010

Comments


xxxii



Original Target

Values (from

approval

documents)

Formally

Revised

Target

Values

Actual Value

Achieved at

Completion or

Target Years


Value

(quantitative or

Qualitative)

6% 5% (PSI target) 6.4%


5 12/31/2010 12/31/2010

Comments

(incl. % achievement) Not achieved. PSI target 5.7%.

Indicator 2 : Inflation rate (average, FY)

Value

(quantitative or

Qualitative)

5.1% less than 5% 10.6%


5 12/31/2010 12/31/2010

Comments

(incl. % achievement) Not achieved. PSI target 8-10%

Indicator 3 : Improve ranking in "Doing Business Indicators"

Value

(quantitative or

Qualitative)

136 99 128 (DB 2011)


5 12/31/2010 12/31/2010

Comments



Value

(quantitative or

Qualitative)

8.9% 13% 17%


5 12/31/2010 12/31/2010

Comments


xxxiii

Indicator 5 : Time taken for a container from off-loading until clearing

from port (import data)

Value

(quantitative or

Qualitative)

20.1 days 12 days 12.5 days


5 12/31/2010 12/31/2010

Comments

(incl. % achievement) Close to achievement.


Value

(quantitative or

Qualitative)

889 MW 1091 MW 1077 MW


5 12/31/2010 12/31/2010

Comments


Indicator 7 : Availability of power supply

Value

(quantitative or

Qualitative)

62% 71% 85%


5 12/31/2010 12/31/2010

Comments


Indicator 8 : Share of national and regional road in good and fair condition

Value

(quantitative or

Qualitative)

(Good)

47%

(Fair) 35%

(Good) 75%

(Fair) 20%

(Good) 56%

(Fair) 33%


5 12/31/2010 12/31/2010

Comments


Indicator 9 : Agriculture sector 3-year average growth rate

Value

(quantitative or

Qualitative)

4.4% 6% 3.9%


5 12/31/2010 12/31/2010

Comments


xxxiv

Indicator 10 : Revenues received from concession and license in forestry,


Value

(quantitative or

Qualitative)

4-15% 50% N/A at completion


7 12/31/2010 12/31/2010

Comments



(2009) and 22 billion (2007)

Indicator 11 : Number of districts qualifying for top up grants

Value

(quantitative or

Qualitative)

84 132 102


5 12/31/2010 12/31/2010

Comments



Value

(quantitative or

Qualitative)

50% 70% 56%


5 12/31/2010 12/31/2010

Comments



sources

Value

(quantitative or

Qualitative)

8.2% 12.9% 14.5%


5 12/31/2010 12/31/2010

Comments


Indicator 14 : % of children <2 years receiving 3 doses of vaccines (%)

Value

(quantitative or

Qualitative)

71% 85% 88%


5 12/31/2010 12/31/2010

Comments


xxxv


water

Value

(quantitative or

Qualitative)

(Rural)

45%

(Urban)

73%

(Rural) 65%

(Urban) 90%

(Rural) 57.8%

(Urban) 86%


5 12/31/2010 12/31/2010

Comments

(incl. % achievement) Not achieved. positive progress.


Value

(quantitative or

Qualitative)

4% 4% 2.4% (FY07/08)


3 12/31/2010 12/31/2010

Comments



Value

(quantitative or

Qualitative)

(All) 73%

(Boys)

71%

(Girls)

75%

(All) 99%

(Boys) 99%

(Girls) 99%

(All) 95.4%

(Boys) N/A at

completion.

(Girls) N/A at

completion.


5 12/31/2010 12/31/2010

Comments

(incl. % achievement) Gross primary enrollment 106.4 (Boys 107; Girls 100)

Indicator 18 : Percentage of cohort completing primary education (Standard

IV)

Value

(quantitative or

Qualitative)

66.9% 69% 69.3%


5 12/31/2010 12/31/2010

Comments



Value

(quantitative or

Qualitative)

1:73 1:45 1:54


5 12/31/2010 12/31/2010

Comments Not achieved. Positive progress.

xxxvi


Indicator 20 : Tertiary education enrollment ratio

Value

(quantitative or

Qualitative)

0.27% 6% 5.3%


2 12/31/2010 12/31/2010

Comments



investigated cases

Value

(quantitative or

Qualitative)



5 12/31/2010 12/31/2010

Comments



(2007), 14 (2008), and 17 (2009)

Indicator 22 : % of court cases out-standing for 2 years or more

Value

(quantitative or

Qualitative)

70% 40% 13%


5 12/31/2010 12/31/2010

Comments



Value

(quantitative or

Qualitative)

86% 100% 90%


5 12/31/2010 12/31/2010

Comments


The target value for PRSC was set to 90% in the later

operation, which was achieved.

Indicator 24 : % of LGA expenditures calculated on a formula basis

Value

(quantitative or

Qualitative)

16% 25% 19.4%


7 12/31/2010 12/31/2010

Comments


xxxvii


Value

(quantitative or

Qualitative)

18% 10% 12.7%


5 12/31/2010 12/31/2010

Comments



Value

(quantitative or

Qualitative)

Fully compliant

with Afrosai 3

9 out of 10

AFROSAI 3

conditions were

met.

Date achieved 12/31/2010 12/31/2010

Comments

(incl. % achievement) Not achieved. Close to achievement.


Value

(quantitative or

Qualitative)

6 months 0 months 0 month


5 12/31/2010 12/31/2010

Comments



Procurement Act 2004.

Value

(quantitative or

Qualitative)

39% 80% 73%


7 12/31/2010 12/31/2010

Comments



Procurement Act 2004.

Value

(quantitative or

Qualitative)

39% 80%


7 12/31/2010

Comments


xxxviii

Indicator 30 : % of births attended by skilled health worker

Value

(quantitative or

Qualitative)

41% 65% 51%


6 12/31/2010 12/31/2010

Comments




Original

Target

Values

(from

approval

documents)

Formally

Revised

Target

Values

Actual Value

Achieved at

Completion or

Target Years


Value

(quantitative or

Qualitative)

6% 5% (PSI target) 6.4%


5 12/31/2010 12/31/2010

Comments

(incl. % achievement) Not achieved. PSI target 5.7%

Indicator 2 : Inflation rate (average, CY)

Value

(quantitative or

Qualitative)

5.1% Less than 5% 10.6%


5 12/31/2010 12/31/2010

Comments

(incl. % achievement) Not achieved. PSI target 8-10%.

Indicator 3 : Improve ranking in "Doing Business Indicators"

Value

(quantitative or

Qualitative)

136 130 128 (DB 2011)


5 12/31/2010 12/31/2010

Comments


Not achieved. Tanzania's DB ranking declined 3 years in

row from DB 2008 to DB 2011. The Tanzania’s ranking of

131th place in DB 2010 was adjusted to 125th place in DB

2011.

xxxix


Value

(quantitative or

Qualitative)

8.9% 13% 17%


5 12/31/2010 12/31/2010

Comments


Indicator 5 : Time taken for a container from off-loading until clearing

from port (import data)

Value

(quantitative or

Qualitative)

20.1 days 12 days 12.5%


5 12/31/2010 12/31/2010

Comments



Value

(quantitative or

Qualitative)

889 MW 1091 MW 1077 MW


5 12/31/2010 12/31/2010

Comments


Indicator 7 : Availability of power supply

Value

(quantitative or

Qualitative)

62% 71% 85%


5 12/31/2010 12/31/2010

Comments


Indicator 8 : Share of national and regional roads in good and fair

condition

Value

(quantitative or

Qualitative)

(Good)

47%

(Fair) 35%

(Good) 75%

(Fair) 20%

(Good) 56%

(Fair) 33%


5 12/31/2010 12/31/2010

Comments


xl

Indicator 9 : Agriculture sector three-year average growth rate

Value

(quantitative or

Qualitative)

4.4% 6% 3.9%


5 12/31/2010 12/31/2010

Comments


Indicator 10 : Revenues received from concession and license in forestry,


Value

(quantitative or

Qualitative)

4-15% 50% N/A at completion


7 12/31/2010 12/31/2010

Comments



(2009) and 22 billion (2007)

Indicator 11 : Number of district qualifying for top up grants

Value

(quantitative or

Qualitative)

84 132 102


5 12/31/2010 12/31/2010

Comments



Value

(quantitative or

Qualitative)

50% 70% 56%


5 12/31/2010 12/31/2010

Comments



sources

Value

(quantitative or

Qualitative)

8.2% 12.9% 14.5%


5 12/31/2010 12/31/2010

Comments


xli

Indicator 14 : % of children <2 years receiving three doses of vaccines

Value

(quantitative or

Qualitative)

71% 85% 88%


5 12/31/2010 12/31/2010

Comments


Indicator 15 : % of births attended by a skilled health worker

Value

(quantitative or

Qualitative)

41% 65% 51%


6 12/31/2010 12/31/2010

Comments



Value

(quantitative or

Qualitative)

4% 4% 2.4% (FY07/08)


3 12/31/2010 12/31/2010

Comments



Value

(quantitative or

Qualitative)

(All) 73%

(Boys)

71%

(Girls)

75%

(All) 99%

(Boys) 99%

(Girls) 99%

(All) 95.4%

(Boys) N/A at

completion

(Girls) N/A at

completion


5 12/31/2010 12/31/2010

Comments

(incl. % achievement) Gross primary enrollment 106.4 (boys 107 and girls 100)

Indicator 18 : Percentage of cohort completing primary education (Standard

IV)

Value

(quantitative or

Qualitative)

66.9% 69% 69.3%


5 12/31/2010 12/31/2010

Comments


xlii


Value

(quantitative or

Qualitative)

1:73 1:45 1:54


5 12/31/2010 12/31/2010

Comments


Indicator 20 : Tertiary education enrollment ratio

Value

(quantitative or

Qualitative)

0.27% 6%


2 12/31/2010

Comments



water

Value

(quantitative or

Qualitative)

(Rural)

45%

(Urban)

73%

(Rural) 65%

(Urban) 90%

(Rural) 57.8%

(Urban) 86%


5 12/31/2010 12/31/2010

Comments



investigated cases

Value

(quantitative or

Qualitative)



5 12/31/2010 12/31/2010

Comments



(2007), 14 (2008), and 17 (2009)

Indicator 23 : % of court cases outstanding for 2 years or more

Value

(quantitative or

Qualitative)

70% 40% 13%


5 12/31/2010 12/31/2010

Comments


xliii

Indicator 24 : Current pay as a proportion of Government's pay target (%)

Value

(quantitative or

Qualitative)

86% 90% 90%


5 12/31/2010 12/31/2010

Comments

(incl. % achievement) Achieved.

Indicator 25 : % of LGA expenditure calculated on a formula basis

Value

(quantitative or

Qualitative)

16% 25% 19.4%


7 12/31/2010 12/31/2010

Comments



Value

(quantitative or

Qualitative)

18% 10% 12.7%


5 12/31/2010 12/31/2010

Comments



Value

(quantitative or

Qualitative)

Fully compliant

with Afrosai 3

9 out of 10

AFROSAI 3

conditions were

met.

Date achieved 12/31/2010 12/31/2010

Comments


Indicator 28 : Delay in submission of NAO audit report to Parliament

Value

(quantitative or

Qualitative)



5 12/31/2010 12/31/2010

Comments


xliv


Procurement Act 2004

Value

(quantitative or

Qualitative)

39% 80% 73%


6 12/31/2010 12/31/2010

Comments


G. Ratings of Program Performance in ISRs


No. Date ISR

Archived DO IP

Actual

Disbursements

(USD millions)

1 06/30/2006 Satisfactory Satisfactory 0.00



No. Date ISR

Archived DO IP

Actual

Disbursements

(USD millions)



No. Date ISR

Archived DO IP

Actual

Disbursements

(USD millions)

1 06/29/2009 Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 150.34


No. Date ISR

Archived DO IP

Actual

Disbursements

(USD millions)




No. Date ISR

Archived DO IP

Actual

Disbursements

(USD millions)

1 04/17/2011 Moderately Satisfactory Satisfactory 117.64

1

1. Program Context, Development Objectives and Design

1.1 Context at Appraisal

Summary of Economic and Structural Sector Background

Starting in the late 1980s, but implemented with vigor mainly since the mid-l990s.

Tanzania carried out a broad structural and social reform agenda. After the initial

macroeconomic stabilization and the removal of key distortions in the economy, reforms

focused on improving economic governance, providing an enabling environment for

private sector activities, and enhancing public service delivery. As a consequence of its

strong performance, Tanzania gained access to irreversible debt relief by reaching the

completion point under the enhanced HIPC Initiative in December 2001 and additional

debt relief from bilateral donors in 2007. In present value (PV) terms, the public sector

debt stood at about 12 percent of GDP at end-June 2009, or 53.5 percent of exports, both

eminently sustainable. As a result of these reforms and policy measures, Tanzania’s GDP

growth accelerated over time, reaching an average of almost 4 percent per annum in the

second half of the 1990s, and has been consistently in the 6-7 % range since then (Table

1).

Table 1: Selected Economic Indicators (at the time of PRSC-8 Appraisal) (in percent, unless otherwise specified)

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Output and Prices

GDP growth 7.8 7.4 6.7 7.1 7.4 6.0

Annual Inflation (CPI, period avg.) 4.7 5.0 7.2 8.4 11.8 10.5

Money (as % of GDP)

M2 to GDP 15.8 18.5 19.3 21.0 22.2 20.4

Private credit to GDP 8.5 9.7 12.1 14.9 16.2 16.0

Balance of Payments

Current account balance to GDP -2.9 -6.1 -8.0 -11.1 -10.2 -8.4

Official reserves in months of imports 6.6 4.8 4.1 4.2 4.5 5.1

Exchange and Interest Rates

Exchange rate (T Sh per USD) 1043 1165 1266 1132 1259 1319

Interest rate (T-Bond) 9.3 8.3 9.3 17.1 7.8 8.3

FY04

/05

FY05

/06

FY06

/07

FY07

/08

FY08

/09

FY09/

10

Fiscal Developments

Domestic Revenue to GDP 11.9 12.4 14.1 16.0 16.2 15.8

Overall budget deficit to GDP (after

grants) -4.9 -4.9 -4.8 0.0 -4.8 -6.9

Overall budget deficit to GDP (before

grants) -8.1 -9.3 -11.3 -6.9 -9.9 -11.6

Domestic borrowing to GDP 1.0 1.5 1.2 -1.5 0.8 1.8

Source: Tanzanian authorities, IMF, World Bank estimates, as presented in PRSC-8 program document

Thus, the appraisal of PRSC 4 in early 2006, the first in a planned program of five

PRSCs, took place in an environment of strong economic growth that had some

2

momentum behind it. Inflation, though still too variable, was in the single digit range.

Foreign exchange reserves were comfortable, although current account balance was

growing due to an import growth rate that far exceeded the rate of growth of exports.

Domestic revenue to GDP ratio was improving, although from a low level, and overall

budget deficit (after grants) was in a range that did not require domestic borrowing at a

level that would crowd out the private sector. Credit to the private sector was rising

rapidly, both in absolute terms as well as relative to GDP.

While data on income-poverty incidence at the time of appraisal of the first operation of

the series (PRSC-4) were somewhat old (the latest available year was 2001 - see Table 2

below), the trends observed from 1991-2001 were not particularly encouraging. The

increasingly strong GDP growth performance during the 1990s, had not led to a major

reduction in income poverty, except in Dar-es-Salaam. In other urban areas, and

particularly in the countryside where the vast majority of the poor lived, the declines

were within the margin of sampling error (i.e. not statistically significant). Little poverty

reduction in the countryside should have been an early sign that more attention had to be

paid to the rural sector. Still, there was hope that strong growth in the almost five years

that had elapsed between the last set of data on poverty and the appraisal of PRSC 4,

would have lifted many additional people out of poverty.

Table 2: Changes in Income-Poverty Incidence

1991 2001 2007

Dar es Salaam 28.1 17.6 16.4

Other urban 28.7 25.8 24.1

Rural 40.8 38.7 37.6

Tanzania Mainland 38.6 35.6 33.6

Source: National Bureau of Statistics and World Bank staff estimates

In the event, the Household Budget Survey (HBS) of 2007, showed a poverty picture that

was disappointing (but see caveats below). The disconnect between growth and poverty

reduction during 2001-07 was even stronger than in the preceding period. This was

attributed to four main factors. First, GDP growth was driven by sectors that were

predominantly urban or were in other ways weakly linked to the rural sector

(construction, telecommunications, financial intermediation, and mining). Second, almost

three quarters of the higher growth in the 1990s and well into the 2000s was driven by

higher foreign aid inflows feeding into the government budget. As a result, public

consumption strongly outpaced private consumption, and it is the latter that forms the

basis for measuring income poverty (WB CEM 2007). Third, the rate of growth of

agriculture did not far outpace the rate of growth of population. Fourth, the rate of growth

of agriculture may have been overestimated. If the overestimate is significant, it would

contribute to stagnation in poverty reduction in the countryside (as well as pull down the

overall rate of growth of GDP). In addition, some of the consumption increase occurred

in consumer durables over the year which are not included in the consumption basket of

the Household Budget Survey (HBS).

3

Recent re-examinations of the 2007 HBS data, embellished by data from other surveys,

show that in dimensions other than just the reduction of income poverty, Tanzania fared

better over the same period (2001-2007). Public spending was clearly pro-poor, with

affordable services benefitting the lower quintiles of the income distribution. Urban

areas realized important gains in access to non-farm employment, and earnings increased

substantially. Real gains in wealth were made by all quintiles as measured by increased

possession of consumer durables and better housing. The picture in the countryside

remained less encouraging, although there were areas that had benefitted by higher prices

of their produce or better roads. Further work is being done on improving the

methodology and processes of the HBS.

The situation in other aspects of people’s well-being was more encouraging at the time of

appraisal. Between years 2000 and 2005, net primary school enrollment increased from

57 to 95 percent. Life expectancy increased from 49 years in 1988 to 55 years in 2002.

Infant mortality dropped from 115 per 1000 in 1988 to 68 per 1000 in 2004.1 The fraction

of chronically undernourished or stunted children declined from 44 percent in 1999 to 38

percent in 2004.2 Other indicators recorded less progress. Maternal mortality which was

529 per 100,000 births in 1996 had not changed, nor had fertility which averaged 5.7

children per woman.3 The proportion of the population with access to piped or protected

water as their main source of drinking water remains very low, especially in rural areas

where, depending on the source, between 46 (census) and 52 (HBS 2007) percent had

access.

In terms of governance, the first series of PRSCs (PRSC 1-3) supported the development

of annual plans and performance budgets and service delivery surveys. Based on these,

the government published the first ―State of the Public Service‖ report. The report

showed that citizens were increasingly satisfied with a number of key public services

(like primary education). However, it also indicated that levels of dissatisfaction were

still alarmingly high. Around 25 percent of all clients were dissatisfied with central

government services and 50-75 percent with local government services. Service delivery

was still perceived as being riddled with bureaucracy and needed to improve in terms of

timeliness. There were issues with resource leakages and public financial management.

Efforts to reduce corruption were perceived as moving slowly.

Rationale for Bank Assistance

The Bank’s PRSC support to Tanzania is provided within a harmonized framework for

general budget support (GBS) with 13 other development partners (DPs), comprising a

Performance Assessment Framework (PAF), a Partnership Framework Memorandum

(PFM) for GBS for the implementation of MKUKUTA, and a joint review process which

culminates in a joint Annual Review (AR) in October/November. The framework is

1 Later, the number for infant mortality has declined further to 51 per 1000 in 2009 based on 2009/10

Tanzania Demographic and Health Survey (TDHS) 2009/10. 2 Based on TDHS 2009/10, it further dropped to 454.

3 The more recent number from 2009/10 TDHS is 454 per 100,000 live births in 2009.

4

designed to support domestic accountability, reduce transaction costs in the process, and

encourage the further development and use of Tanzania’s own systems.

The CAS approved by the Board on June 15, 2000, which covered PRSC-4, foresaw

quick-disbursing policy-based lending operations in support o f overall and sector

reforms, and a shift to budget support contingent on sufficient progress in the areas of

public expenditure management and governance. Based on these provisions in the CAS,

the Bank launched its first PRSC series in 2003. The World Bank strategy foresaw a

gradual increase in the amount of World Bank resources provided in the form of PRSC

support from the initial amount of US$ 132 million for PRSC-1 in FY04 to US$ 200

million for PRSC-4 in FY07. IDA debt relief under the enhanced HIPC initiative as well

as under the MDRI facility were projected to amount initially to about US$ 100 million,

but increased subsequently reflecting Tanzania’s debt profile.

The CAS, which was approved by the Board jointly with PRSC-5 and has been covering

up to PRSC-8, consists of the government’s Joint Assistance Strategy (JAST), the multi-

donor Joint Programming Document (JPD), and a World Bank Group-specific

supplement, with details on the WBG strategy, progress under the previous CAS, FY06-

FY 10 programs and projects, IDA financing, and a WBG-specific results matrix. The

results WBG results matrix is fully aligned and supportive of MKUKUTA objectives.

The JAST clearly identifies GBS as the preferred aid modality, as it allows for full

integration of donor support into government systems and alignment with MKUKUTA

implementation. The JPD also recognizes the benefits of GBS in terms of strengthening

ownership and domestic systems for the management and implementation o f the

MKUKUTA. The CAS thus envisaged an increase in budget support from about US$190

million in 2006/07 to as much as US$400 million in 2009/10.

1.2 Original Program Development Objectives (PDO) and Key Indicators

MKUKUTA Clusters and Program Development Objectives

The program was designed to support the Government’s reform program named

MKUKUTA (and a similar program specifically for Zanzibar called MKUZA) over the

period 2005-2010. Its proposed policy actions target cross-cutting issues that would be

difficult to address solely within the context of investment lending. The financial part of

the program is in the form of budget support through a series of five PRSCs (PRSC 4-8)

and is done jointly with 13 donors (AfDB, Canada, Denmark, European Commission,

Finland, Ireland, Japan, Germany, Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland, and UK).

The budget support is carried out in coordination with a number of complementary

investment projects, most of which also contain elements of Technical Assistance and

Capacity Building. Various analytical studies are designed to provide the basis (evidence)

for the proposed policy actions.

The General Budget Support (GBS) framework (also called Poverty Reduction Budget

Support or PRBS), set up at the beginning of the PRSC program, includes a Partnership

5

Framework Memorandum (PFM), a Performance Assessment Framework (PAF), and an

agreed Joint Review Process. The PFM operationalizes a series of international

commitments that aim to provide more scope for government ownership, better alignment

and integration of donor support with government priorities and systems, and greater

predictability of donor support.

The PAF, a framework agreed between the Government and the DPs, is basically a

matrix of commitments consisting of three categories that are monitored in the Cluster

Working Groups throughout the year: (i) Underlying Process; (ii) Temporary Process

Actions; and (iii) Outcome Indicators. The initial PAF covered six focus areas --- the

three clusters of MKUKUTA (―Growth for Reduction of Income Poverty‖ cluster,

―Improvement of Quality of Life and Social Well-being‖ cluster, and ―Governance and

Accountability‖ cluster) , plus macroeconomic stability, resource allocation and budget

consistency, and public financial management. As the PRSC series proceeded, the last

three focus areas became folded into one, called the ―quality of the budget cluster‖. This

fourth cluster has been set up as a part of the dialogue structure between the Government

and the DPs in implementing GBS. The PAF outcome indicators are generally a subset

of a much wider set of indicators used by MKUKUTA. In turn, the PRSC series, while

using many of the PAF indicators, added a few of its own for its Results Matrix in order

to sharpen the focus on Program Development Outcomes (PDOs) agreed under the PRSC

program.

The Joint Review Process consists of one joint GBS Annual Review, typically held in

October. It is aligned with Tanzania’s budget process. The whole chain starts with Sector

and Thematic Reviews from March through September of each year, followed by

MKUKUTA and GBS Annual Reviews in October, Budget Guidelines preparation

during November through January, and ending with Budget and MTEF preparations

between February and June. The GBS dialogue is led by a rotating troika of DPs, with the

Bank as a permanent member (together referred to as Troika plus).

The set of PDOs under the PRSC series mirrors the Clusters of policies in the

Government’s MKUKUTA program with the additional cluster on public financial

management and quality of budget. Cluster 1 contains policy measures that would lead

to high growth and (income) poverty reduction. Cluster 2 groups policies targeted at

improving the quality of life and social well-being. The focus of Cluster 3, are policies

that would lead to an improvement of governance and accountability.

PDO 1: Reduce income poverty (MKUKUTA Cluster 1: ―Growth for Reduction

of Income Poverty‖)

PDO2: Improve key human development objectives (MKUKUTA Cluster 2:

―Improvement of Quality of Life and Social Well-being)

PDO 3: Improve the capacity of the Government to design and implement

development policies in a transparent and efficient manner (MKUKUTA

Cluster 3: ―Governance and Accountability‖)

PDO Indicators with Baseline and Target

6

Broad progress towards PDOs was to be measured with the following PDO Indicators:

Indicator for PDO 1:

Rural poverty head count

o Baseline 39% (2001)

o Latest 37% (2007 HBS)

o Program Target 34% (2010) (MKUKUTA target 24%)

Indicators for PDO 2:

Under five mortality

o Baseline 112 (2004)

o Latest 81 (2009/10 DHS)

o Program Target 79 (2010) (MKUKUTA target 79)

Increase literacy of 15+ age group

o Baseline 69% (2002) (78% in 2002 in Program Documents is based on

male only.)

o Latest 70.0% (2009 MKUKUTA IR)

o Program Target 80% (2010) (MKUKUTA target 80%)

Indicators for PDO 3:

WGI on accountability

o Baseline -0.31 (2005)

o Latest -0.14 (2009 WGI)

o Program Target 0 (2010)

WGI on control of corruption

o Baseline -0.73 (2005)

o Latest -0.42 (2009 WGI)

o Program Target -0.20 (2010)

WGI on government effectiveness

o Baseline -0.35 (2005)

o Latest -0.42 (2009)

o Program Target 0 (2010)

It should be noted that ―Targets‖ always refer to targets under the PRSC program. The

targets in MKUKUTA were at times (substantially) different, usually in the direction of

greater optimism. The PDOs as well as PDO Indicators are taken from the PRSC 4-8

Results Framework (Annex 4).

Program Outcomes and Intermediate/Subsidiary Indicators

7

Each cluster/PDO has a number of program outcomes, which contribute to the PDOs.

Similarly, the PDO indicators were supported by a set of intermediate indicators or

subsidiary indicators as below, which correspond to individual program outcomes.

PDO 1: reduce income poverty

Program Outcome 1.1 Improved business environment by maintaining a conducive

macro framework and reducing administrative barriers.

Intermediate/subsidiary Indicators:

Fiscal deficit (after grants) as percent of GDP

Inflation rate (average, CY)

Improve ranking in ―Doing Business Indicators‖

Program Outcome 1.2 Increased access of private sector to key inputs, in

particular credit and backbone services (electricity, roads, ICT).

Intermediate/subsidiary Indicators:

Credit to private sector (% of GDP)

Time taken for a container from off-loading until clearing from port (import data)

Installed MW power capacity

Availability of power supply

Share of national and regional roads in good and fair condition

Program Outcome 1.3 Improved livelihoods in rural areas, where the majority of

the poor work, through improved agricultural policies and expansion of rural

infrastructure.

Intermediate/subsidiary Indicators

Agriculture sector three-year average growth rate

Revenues received from concession and license in forestry, as % of their

estimated value

Number of districts qualifying for top up grants

% of passable rural roads (in good and fair condition)

Number of customers connected to national grid and off-grid sources

PDO 2: Improve key human development objectives

Program Outcome 2.1 Improved health status of the population.


% of children < 2 years receiving three doses of vaccines

% of births attended by a skilled health worker

National HIV prevalence in the 15 to 24 years age group

8

Program Outcome 2.2 Expanded enrollment and enhanced quality in all levels of

education


Net primary enrollment (all, boys, girls)

Percentage of cohort completing primary education (standard VII)

Qualified teacher / pupil ratio in primary education

Tertiary education enrollment ratio

Program Outcome 2.3 Improved well-being through better access to clean water


Percentage of the population that has access to clean and safe water

PDO 3: improve the capacity of the Government to design and implement

development policies in a transparent and efficient manner

Program Outcome 3.1 Enhanced accountability of the state


Number of grand corruption cases prosecuted as % of investigated cases

% of court cases outstanding for 2 years or more

Program Outcome 3.2 Improved effectiveness of public administration through

better incentives for public servants and decentralization,


Current pay as a proportion of Government’s pay target (%)

% of LGA expenditures calculated on a formula basis

Program Outcome 3.3 Improved public financial management.

Intermediate Indicators

Recurrent budget deviation

NAO starting to introduce INTOSAI and ISA

Delay in submission of NAO audit report to Parliament

Number of procuring entities complying with the Public Procurement Act 2004.

1.3 Revised PDO and Key Indicators, and Reasons/Justification

There was no revision to PDO or key indicators within each operation of the series. For

the series as a whole, the three PDOs, which directly correspond to MKUKUTA clusters,

were not revised.

9

However, the structure of the Results Framework (RF) linked to the PAF was firmed up

as part of PRSC-6. More specifically, the new structure introduced the two-level

structure, consisting of PDOs and PDO indicators at a high level, which were then

supported by the program outcomes and intermediate/subsidiary indicators at a lower

level. Prior to this RF structure, PDOs were measured by a set of indicators that measure

only progress in specific areas which do not have as much comprehensiveness as PDOs

have. The introduction of this new RF structure was to allow PDO indicators to measure

progress toward such comprehensive development objectives, and at the same time to

specify program outcomes that contribute to achievements of PDOs. As a result, the high-

order PDO indicators were introduced while original indicators were converted into

intermediate/subsidiary indicators including new indicators introduced with the occasion

of the new RF so as to better aligned to PAF. The new indicators introduced were taken

from the Government’s MKUKUTA outcome indicators as well as indicators to measure

the Government’s anti-corruption effort related to governance reflecting the set of grand

corruption cases from FY2005/06. The revised RF presented in Annex 4 (a)-(c) has been

in use since PRSC-6 (see more discussion 2.3 in the monitoring and evaluation section).

1.4 Original Policy Areas Supported by the Program:

• Rural Development

• Private sector Development

• Debt management

• Domestic revenue

• Budget formulation and management

• Public Service reform

• Financial Management

• Procurement

• Anti-corruption

• Aid management

• Environment

• Poverty Monitoring and Evaluation

1.5 Revised Policy Areas

Not applicable

1.6 Other significant changes

None

10

2. Key Factors Affecting Implementation and Outcomes

2.1 Program Performance (supported by a table derived from a policy matrix)

As is now fairly customary, the policy actions supported under this PRSC series were

overwhelmingly ―Prior Actions‖ in the sense that they were carried out prior to the Board

date. However, they were always a part of the Government’s broader reform program, the

MKUKUTA (MKUZA for Zanzibar), so there was some coherence to them both in terms

of covering important areas within any year, as well as in how they built up a

momentum towards the achievement of the PDOs over time. Prior Actions were typically

signaled in the preceding operation (and were at that stage often labeled as ―triggers‖).

Most of them were implemented as expected, but each year a few of the triggers were

replaced with other actions when the time came, depending on the changes ―on the

ground‖ (relevance, political considerations, delays, etc.). The list of Prior Actions

actually taken under the program series as well as actions that were dropped or amended,

along with reasons for the changes, is presented in Annex 2.

Table 3 summarizes the key policy achievements over the full cycle of the series. These

represent only a fraction of the over 50 Prior Actions taken across the entire MKUKUTA

reform program (for the full set see Annex 2). Early on in the program series there was

emphasis on: (i) reducing impediments to small businesses and farmers (new Bills on

Business Activities, operationalization of the Land Act and the Village Land Act, and

rationalization of the roles, functions, financing and accountability of the Crop Boards);

(ii) fixing a number of budget issues (timeliness, alignment of budget with policies,

deviations between budgeted amounts and outcomes, and auditing of the books); (iii)

integrating donor funding and tracking into the government cycles and processes; (iv)

annual sectoral reviews of health, education and water; and (v) a variety of issues in

governance and accountability. Later, emphasis was added on policies to remove

infrastructure constraints.

Table 3 also shows the numbers of triggers fully met, partially met or not met. There is a

clear trend from PRSC-4, when all triggers were met, to PRSC-8, when only 7 of the 11

triggers were fully met. As a result, the amounts allocated under the PRSCs also declined

over time (CAS projection was 190 million, 250 million, 300 million, and 400 million for

PRSC-5 to -8 respectively, with total US$ 1.14 billion, which is larger than the actual

total amount of US$ 825 million for PRSC5-8). Although, the ―shortfalls‖ from the

initially programmed totals to be disbursed under the PRSC 4-8 series were pretty much

made up through PRSC-7 supplemental financing, which supported the Government’s

stimulus package during FY2009/10 to mitigate negative impacts from the global

financial crisis. The impact was not as severe as initially anticipated because of the

Government’s effective interventions both in fiscal and monetary policies.

11

Table 3: Progress under the PRSC4-8 Series

PRSC-4 PRSC-5 PRSC-6 PRSC-7 PRSC-8

Major Policy

Achievements

Issuance of

circular

abolishing

levies by

Crop

Boards, and

limiting

Crop Board

functions to

regulatory

functions.

NAO Budget

Audit report

issued on time

for the first

time.

Electricity tariff

application submitted,

resulting in revenue

increase of 25%.

Road bill enhancing

autonomy of road agency

enacted.

Road maintenance budget

substantially increased to

cover almost 100% of

requirements.

New anti-corruption bill,

increasing the number of

offenses and the power of

investigation, enacted.

New audit bill aligned

with AfroSAI3

requirements enacted

National PPP

policy

prepared.

Decision to

create new

internal audit

department

for whole of

Government

in Ministry of

Finance and

Economic

Affairs

Electricity tariff

application

submitted to

regulator, aiming

for full cost

recovery.

New PPP bill

approved.

Key measures

taken to reduce

congestion at the

port.

Power and

Autonomy of

Procurement

agency to handle

breach of

procurement

process enhanced.

No. of

triggers fully

met

11/11 7/9 8/11 7/11 7/11

No. of

triggers

partially met

0/11 1/9 3/11 2/11 1/11

No. of

triggers not

met

0/11 1/9 0/11 2/11 3/11

Original

credit amount

US$200

million

US$190

million

(US$10

million

performance

adjustment)

US$160 million US$190 m

(US$10

million

performance

adjustment)

US$115 million

Note: This table does not include $170 million supplemental financing to PRSC-7 in November of 2009, in

order to help mitigate the effects of the global crisis. The supplemental financing had the exactly same

program as PRSC-7.

In terms of individual PRSC operations, PRSC-4 successfully met all triggers. Prior

Actions under the growth and poverty reduction cluster of PRSC 4 focused promisingly

on rationalizing the functions, financing and accountability of the Crop Boards,

operationalizing the Land and Village Land Acts in order to enable titling of land, and

speeding up the business registration process. Under Cluster 2, there was a satisfactory

health sector review. Under Cluster 3, the National Audit Office was trained, and

procurement and installation of computer equipment completed. The organization of the

Public Procurement Regulatory Authority (PPRA) was approved and appropriate

budgetary resources allocated. In order to improve the performance of public sector

employees, which was very important for successful implementation of the reform

program, there were pay increases consistent with the budget approved for that year and

with the overall thrust of the pay reform. A process was also agreed for reforming the

incentive-distorting effects of the public sector allowances regime. Finally, in Cluster 4

12

(improving the quality of the budget), the budget approved was deemed as supportive of

MKUKUTA’s goals and the expenditure outturn for FY04/05 (the year previous to

PRSC-4) had been consistent with the approved budget.

Under PRSC 5, the trigger of Crop Boards was not completed. Instead the government

decided to conduct consultations for all four crop Boards and sign an MOU, and amend

the crop board legislation later for all four boards simultaneously. Perhaps this was an

early indication that reforms in agriculture were not proceeding at a pace consistent with

the GoT’s stated goals for agricultural growth (MKUKUTA target was 10% annual

growth in agriculture). There was progress in the reform of the Business Activities

Registration and in the Business Regulatory Licensing Regime. On roads, the Roads Bill

was not submitted to Parliament as earlier agreed. Since rapid improvement in

infrastructure was considered very important, and in order to maintain the credibility of

the PRSC instrument, the Bank reduced the amount to be disbursed under this PRSC by

$10 million. Under Cluster 2, there were satisfactory reviews of the health, education and

water sectors. Under Cluster 3, the NAO General Report for FY04/05 was issued, as

agreed, by April 2006. The approved budget for FY06/07 was in line with the policy

objectives of MKUKUTA, and expenditure outturns for FY05/06 were consistent with

the approved budget.

There was progress across the Board in reform actions under Cluster 1 of PRSC 6. Draft

amendments to crop board legislation were submitted for stakeholder consultations and

strategic plans for all crop boards were finalized. There was progress in the

implementation of the TANESCO financial recovery plan and in the regulation of the

power sector. The Road Bill was submitted to Parliament. A prioritized Transport Sector

Investment Plan was finalized, with adequate provision for maintenance and a framework

for Public Private Partnerships (PPP). Sector reviews of health, education and water

under Cluster 2 were found to be fairly satisfactory which resulted in a ―partially

completed‖ rating of the three triggers in this area. However, the amount of the credit was

not reduced. Under Cluster 3, the Anti-Corruption an Audit bills were submitted to

Parliament. The approved budget for FY07/08 was in line with the policy objectives of

MKUKUTA, and expenditure outturns for FY06/07 were consistent with the approved

budget.

It is perhaps worth mentioning that because of concerns raised in fiduciary governance at

the Bank of Tanzania (BOT), and other allegations of corruption, specific conditions

were set by IDA prior to negotiations of the PRSC 6 Credit. In fulfillment of these

conditions, the Recipient provided the following: (a) the Government shared with the

IDA a time bound action plan describing current investigations and audit related to

potential cases of fraud involving the BOT; (b) IDA received from the BOT copies of the

audited accounts of the BOT for the FY 06/07, and IDA was made privy to the

management letter accompanying the audit; and (c) a Voluntary Country Safeguards

Assessment of the BOT was been completed, and BOT was to incorporate key

recommendations of the Voluntary Safeguard Assessment in its action plan. IDA and the

Government agreed to continue to monitor progress in the control environment in the

BOT with the PRSC and General Budget Support dialogue.

13

Progress under PRSC 7 was mixed. In Cluster 1 the Business Activities Registration Act

(BARA) trigger, which was to make regulations consistent with one-stop shop good

practice was not completed and the trigger was dropped. This was a setback to GoT’s

declared high level policy intentions to improve the relatively weak investment climate.

Instead, moving away from the one-stop shop concept was, in the opinion of Bank and

other DP experts in this area, likely to result in a system that was burdensome, prone to

manipulation and corruption, complex to manage, and potentially punitive, especially for

the smaller firms (which generate over 90 percent of all jobs). It would also represent one

more demand on the government’s management capacities that were already under strain.

The failure to meet this trigger, and to identify suitable remedial measures, led the Bank

to reduce the credit by US$10 million.

There was progress on other triggers in Cluster 1. TANESCO’s financial recovery plan

moved forward. A national PPP policy, including the infrastructure sector was prepared,

discussed with stakeholders and was on the way to obtaining Cabinet approval.

In Cluster 2, in the education sector, a performance report for 2007/08 was prepared on

the basis of an agreed sector monitoring tool. Health sector performance report for

2006/07 was updated and the one for 2007/08 produced and disseminated. Finally, a

satisfactory water sector review was carried out.

In Cluster 3, a revised Medium-Term Pay Policy was not adopted as expected. Instead the

Prior Action was watered down to ―concrete steps to be taken to prepare a revised

Medium-Term Pay policy by the government as the basis for reform of pay and

allowances‖. The trigger, in the area of managing licenses and/or concession allocations

in the natural resources area, was substantially completed. New procurement regulations

were prepared but not yet gazetted. Approval was granted to create a new Department of

Internal Audit.

In cluster 4, the expenditure outturn report for FY07/08 consistent with the approved

budget and recurrent budget deviations was not completed which reflected a broader

worsening of overall budget execution. Further actions in this area would in the future be

addressed through the PER dialogue. On the other hand, the budget for FY08/09 was

deemed to be in line with the policy objectives of MKUKUTA and was approved.

PRSC 8 was designed in an environment of flagging commitment to reforms by the GoT.

The loss of momentum had been evident for some time, but was probably accelerated by

the elections scheduled for the Fall of 2010. It was therefore no surprise that actions on

the reform front were even weaker than for PRSC 7 and that the amount of the credit was

reduced to US$115 million

Under Cluster 1, the FIAS study that was to pay particular action to regulations and local

taxes affecting agriculture was not completed and the trigger was dropped from those that

were converted to prior actions. An action plan to improve accountability and

transparency in allocating natural resource licenses and concessions was approved and

implementation initiated. There was some progress on completing the land registry. An

Energy Tariff application was successfully submitted by TANESCO to the regulator to

14

finally allow for revenue collection to meet full operational costs in 2011 and full cost

recovery by 2013. The government managed to reduce port congestion through three key

measures (i) Tanzania Ports Authority prepared a preliminary version of a time-bound

action plan for moving to Landlord Status; (ii) SUMATRA approved an increase in port

storage tariffs and a reduction in free time; and (iii) the GoT established its own area for

impounded containers. Finally, the PPP bill was approved by Parliament.

In Cluster 2, satisfactory education, health and water sector reviews were carried out,

based on an assessment of progress against agreed outcome targets, adequacy of resource

allocation, achievement of sector milestones, and adequacy of stakeholder consultations.

In Cluster 3, the trigger covering further progress on Medium-Term Pay reform for public

sector workers was not completed. The new Public Procurement Act that increases the

autonomy of PPRA and its power to enforce procurement rule, was passed by the

Parliament.

In Cluster 4, expenditure outturn for FY08/09 was found to be consistent with the

approved budget and recurrent budget deviation was reduced. The trigger was deemed

completed. However, the budget approved for FY09/10 was not found to be in line with

the policy objectives of MKUKUTA and the trigger was only partially achieved.

A full list of Triggers and Prior Actions, covering each of the PRSCs 4 through 8, is

provided in Annex 2.

2.2 Major Factors Affecting Implementation:

Government’s ownership of the program at the high policy level and its commitment to

the joint donor budget support process have by and large been strong, and have resulted

in a number of visible improvements.

As one looks at the implementation level, however, the record is much more patchy. In

some areas, like putting a school and a clinic in every ward, increasing the number of

teachers and providing more medical attendants, and in improving the trunk roads, there

are notable successes. In most areas, however, the GoT’s capacity to implement seems to

have reached its limits. In reforming the infrastructure sector, except for successes in

ports and roads, there were failures in the electricity sector, railroads, and air transport.

The investment climate has hardly improved in the past five years and reform progress in

agriculture was too slow to keep up with rapid population growth, much less to develop

Tanzania’s undoubted export potential in a number of crops. Most ICRs of the Bank’s

investment lending projects mention implementation capacity as a constraint, in some

cases to the point of giving them unsatisfactory ratings. And having one of the lowest

tertiary education graduating rates in the world, must have implications for how rapidly

complex implementation problems can be attended to. It is also possible that slow

progress in the areas of accountability and anti-corruption were hampered by increasing

government ineffectiveness. Slow implementation of pay and promotions reform in the

15

public sector, did little to resolve the implementation constraints. Last but perhaps not

least, interviews with Bank and DP staff suggested (albeit anecdotally) that powerful

vested interests may have played a role in undermining the successful implementation of

many of the high level policy pronouncements and commitments.

In retrospect it seems that the Bank’s assessment of GOT capacities was in many

instances too optimistic. Yet there were successes, and on an ex ante view it would have

been difficult to predict which of the proposed interventions were most likely to succeed.

On balance, the Bank and the cofinanciers, while aware that the reforms being

undertaken were ambitious and that the risks of underperformance in many areas were

substantial, made a reasonable judgment that progress (even if highly variable across

sectors) was likely be made.

2.3 Monitoring and Evaluation (M&E) Design, Implementation and Utilization:

The overarching arrangements for cooperation between DPs and the GoT were described

in section 1.2 above. The design, implementation and utilization of the Monitoring and

Evaluation (M&E) processes are governed by those arrangements. Specifically, the Joint

Review Process that has been established for the M&E process consists of one joint GBS

Annual Review, typically held in October. It is aligned with Tanzania’s budget process.

The whole chain starts with Sector and Thematic Reviews from March through

September of each year, followed by an MKUKUTA and GBS Annual Reviews in

October, Budget Guidelines preparation during November through January, and ending

with Budget and MTEF preparations between February and June.

Decisions about the level of GBS to be provided, are based on the progress assessed

under the PAF. The PAF is basically a matrix of commitments consisting of three

categories that are monitored by the Cluster Working Groups throughout the year: (i)

Underlying Process; (ii) Temporary Process Actions; and (iii) Outcome Indicators. The

assessment of performance under the 2009 PAF that preceded the approval of PRSC 8,

for example, showed that 15 out of 20 Underlying Processes were assessed as satisfactory

during the year, 13 out of 25 Temporary Processes were achieved, and 18 out of 34

Outcome Indicators were on track.

Outcome, output, and input indicators provide direct information on all aspects of the

reform programs supported by the PRSCs. Monitoring of these indicators is based on a

broad range of surveys and administrative data systems identified in the MKUKUTA

monitoring master plan. The Poverty and Human Development Report (PHDR), which is

published bi-annually, consolidates poverty measures from various sources, and provides

analysis of poverty trends and underlying factors. Sector reviews are key monitoring

mechanisms for outputs at the sectoral level. IMF’s PRGF and, later, PSI reviews and the

quarterly macro-financial developments report are the key sources for the assessment of

the macroeconomic situation. Progress in public expenditure management covering both

16

improvements in systems and enhanced allocative and operational efficiency in the use of

inputs is tracked by the annual PERs/PEFARs.

The choice of indicators to track PDOs was sound. The various indicators under each

PDO were mostly also sensible, although in a few cases such as for example the target for

agricultural growth, or the percentage of births attended by a skilled health worker, they

became increasingly unrealistic. Perhaps that should have been an early warning that

rural poverty and maternal mortality are not likely to decline in line with expectations and

hence a signal for more intense interventions in these areas. The Doing Business ranking

as an indicator, adopted by PAF, was slightly problematic as a time-series measure as the

Doing Business report for any specific year publishes not only rankings for the latest year

but also adjusts the previous year’s rankings reflecting new countries joins the assessment

and the methodology evolves. Therefore, the team monitored whether Tanzania made an

improvement or not based on the adjusted rankings.

As mentioned earlier (section 1.3), the comprehensive results framework (RF) for the

series was firmly set during PRSC-6 and was congruent to the PAF which was then

integrated with MKUKUTA M&E framework. The set of outcome indicators chosen in

the RF from PRSC-6 built upon the set of indicators chosen from earlier operations in the

series, introducing two levels of . The outcome indicators in the PAF were subsequently

modified every year both in terms of type of indicators as well as target values. For

example, for the case of revenue collected from concessions and licenses for forestry, the

PAF switched from an actual amount of revenue collected in Tanzanian Schilling (TSh)

from the initial indicator which is collected revenue as percentage of their estimated

value. The PAF also added two new indicators (port dwell time and primary school

completion rate) to reflect new developmental concerns in the country and dropped some

indicators based on discussion between GoT and DPs. The target values in the PAF were

also updated annually. On the other hand, to maintain consistency of the programmatic

framework in the series, the modification made to the indicators for PRSCs (after PRSC-

6) included only the two new indicators and limited number of target modifications by

setting PRSC-specific program targets where the initial target values were found

unrealistic (e.g., Doing Business ranking).

2.4 Expected Next Phase/Follow-up Operation (if any):

PRSC 9 is under preparation, which is expected to be the first operation of the next series

of PRSC operations.

17

3. Assessment of Outcomes

3.1 Relevance of Objectives, Design and Implementation

Program Development Objectives of the PRSC 4-8 series corresponded closely to those

of MKUKUTA, the Government’s overarching reform program. The PRSC support

program followed MKUKUTA in supporting policy actions in its three main clusters: (i)

Growth and Reduction of Poverty; (ii) Quality of Life and Social Well-being; and (iii)

Governance and Accountability.

At the same time the PRSC series were an integral part of the Bank’s CAS which, in

support of the main objectives of MKUKUTA, designed and implemented a mix of

budget support, sector investment, TA and analytical instruments. The Bank’s CAS was

also coordinated with the DP’s Joint Assistance Strategy for Tanzania (JAST). The JAST

clearly identifies GBS as the preferred aid modality, as it allows for a fuller integration o

f donor support into government systems and alignment with MKUKUTA

implementation.

The design of the PRSC operations followed established good practice principles in

policy-based lending. PRSC operations tended to reinforce government ownership by

supporting rather than duplicating government processes (aid harmonization among

donors, alignment of aid with the budget cycle, use of government procurement processes,

etc.). There was an accountability framework that guided both government and donors,

including the use of continuously updated result matrices. Prior Actions (as conditions of

disbursement) were few (around 10 in each operation) and were relevant to the

achievement of agreed results. Progress reviews were transparent and conducive to

performance-based, predictable budget support.

Implementation, however, often fell short of intentions expressed in the design of both

budget support and sector investment operations. Major factors affecting implementation

were discussed in Section 2.2 above. Achievement or non-achievement of agreed results

and the extent to which they were due to weaknesses in implementation are discussed in

the next section.

3.2 Achievement of Program Development Objectives

While there was clear progress towards the program development objectives (see Results

Framework in Annex 4), the PRSC program fell short of fully achieving the targets under

PDO indicators in almost all categories.

In Cluster 1 (Growth and reduction of poverty), despite strong growth in GDP over the

period of the PRSC program (2005-10), rural poverty in the 2007 HBS stood at 37% and

was unlikely to meet the program target of 34% based on the measured trend between

2001 and 2007. And it would surely not meet the MKUKUTA target of 24%. However,

18

as discussed in Section 1.1 above, there are methodological and measurement issues that

call for caution in making this judgment.

In Cluster 2 (Quality of life and social well-being) the under 5 mortality PDO of 79 is

likely to be met. On the other hand, the literacy of 15+ age group PDO target of 80% is

unlikely to be met.

In Cluster 3 (Governance and Accountability), the PDOs for accountability, corruption

and government effectiveness, as measured by the World Governance Indicators (WGI),

all remained far from the program targets, with government effectiveness actually getting

worse over the period 2005-09. These indicators may not be fully comparable across

time, but interviews with team members involved in the PRSC series and complementary

projects aimed at improving governance, corroborate that progress in these areas has been

disappointing..

It is difficult to attribute success or failure in the attainment of specific PDOs to any one

or even a group of policy actions taken under the PRSC program. Nevertheless, it would

be hard to believe that the improvements in many of the subsidiary outcome indicators

(sub-indicators) used to track progress of the reform program (see Results Framework in

Annex 4), were unrelated to policy changes.

In the macroeconomic area, for example, strong GDP growth is typically unlikely to be

sustained if the macroeconomic environment is not sound. Tanzania’s was certainly

sound, as has been documented in the IMF’s PRGF, and later PSI, reports over time.

In the area of agriculture, growth averaged 4% per year, short of the PRSC program

target of 6% and far short of the MKUKUTA target of 10%. Also, there is a considerable

doubt that the data are correct, with most knowledgeable observers arguing that the 4%

rate is too high. Even if correct, it is barely ahead of population growth, and seems

mainly to have been due to continued extension of cultivated areas rather than increases

in yields. Still, some crops and some geographic areas did much better than the average

and may hold lessons for the future. There was some progress in important policy areas

such as land registration, reduction of local government ―nuisance‖ taxes, and slow

reform of the crop boards towards regulation and away from marketing. On the other

hand, there was little progress in building all-weather rural roads which are essential for

market access, the system for getting farmers to adopt approaches known to yield results

is broken, and programs to improve access to better seeds and fertilizer are just getting

underway. On the whole, though, the progress was too slow to make a dent in rural

poverty and far too slow if Tanzania wishes to make use of its large agriculture export

potential (see Binswanger-Mkhize and Gautam, 2010).

Actions to improve accountability and transparency in allocating natural resources and

governing concessions should help ensure that growth does not undermine environmental

sustainability.

19

Tanzania’s ranking in Doing Business has declined consecutively for the past three years.

The business environment did not improve enough to make the small and medium

enterprise sector another engine of growth. One can point to some improvements, such as

the removal of various licenses, some streamlining in bureaucratic procedures, and

improvements in some areas of infrastructure (trunk roads, efficiency of port operations).

One can also point to the failure to establish one-stop-shop procedures or to follow up on

studies that suggested specific barriers that should be removed or actions taken to

improve the business environment. It is hard to say at which point a ―critical mass‖ of

policy measures will add up to conditions that would lead to faster formalization of small

informal enterprises and more rapid growth of the entire sector in the future. Nevertheless,

results suggest that much more needs to be done if income poverty is to start declining

more rapidly.

Policy actions aimed at improving trunk roads, establishing a well-functioning road fund,

increasing the quantity and quality of electric power supply, decongesting ports and

improving the framework for private public partnerships, and strong increases in credit to

the private sector, probably contributed to the strong growth in some sectors of the

economy (e.g. construction, telecoms and mining) and will be even more important in the

future. Intermediate indicators in these areas all showed improvements (see Annex 4).

In the area of health, education and better access to clean water, sectoral plans helped

formulate more effective interventions. These plans were over time, increasingly geared

to results, rather than being mostly process oriented. Larger and better targeted budget

resources also helped. Along with better policies, they allowed improvements in the

(qualified) teacher/pupil ratios, almost reaching the net enrollment targets in primary

schools, higher completion rates at primary school level, greater numbers of students at

the tertiary level, increasing the number of health workers (with the percentage of births

attended by skilled health workers increasing from 41% to 51%), better facilities,

resources for medicines, books and other needed materials and equipment, and greater

access to potable water. These are the sectors in which one can safely attribute better

outcomes to better policies. Still, the rate of improvement does not seem to be rapid

enough to make Tanzania more competitive relative to its neighbors (assuming that better

human capital makes a country a better prospect for investment). Tanzania’s HDI ranking

has not budged from its 148th

place in 10 years (UN HDR 2010). It improved absolutely,

but not relatively. It is puzzling that the issue of Tanzania’s high population growth

received scant attention, since in a poor country like Tanzania, greater fertility has

negative implications for human development and poverty.

In the areas of government accountability, anti-corruption and government effectiveness,

slow progress in the PDO indicators (and actual reversal in the effectiveness indicator)

might suggest that the policies enacted were ineffective. The number of measures

implemented in this area, however, has been quite large and the sub-indicators mostly

point in the right direction. It is thus likely, that the impact of the measures taken and yet

to be taken will cumulate over time and the policies will prove to have been more

effective than they now seem. Reforms of the incentives of public employees are difficult

and take a long time to implement. Yet over time many countries have had some success

20

in this area. Perceived corruption may be increasing, but an anti-corruption bill was

enacted. Actions have been taken to improve auditing, procurement, legal procedures,

and budgeting. And a decentralization of finances is underway that should in time better

align service delivery with people’s preferences. It is to be hoped that the combination of

all these will ―jell‖ at some point and that the WGI indicators will eventually show much

stronger progress which, in good part, will have been due to the measures that have been

put in place in the last 5 years.

3.3 Justification of Overall Outcome Rating

Ratings: The Overall Outcome Rating is Moderately Satisfactory

The rating is an average both of the PRSC operations through time and across the wide

scope of each operation.

In terms of relevance, the PRSC 4-8 series were consistent with the objectives of

MKUKUTA which in turn were reflected in the Bank’s CAS and the Joint Assistance

Strategy for Tanzania. Most of the Bank resources (combining budget support, sector

investment lending, TA and AAA) were allocated to the growth and poverty reduction

cluster. This made sense as the hope was that it would result in shared growth which

would alleviate income poverty. It also marked a shift from the first series of PRSCs 1-3

which concentrated more on Cluster 2 (Improvement of Quality of Life and Social Well-

being). In every area of reform, PRSC Prior Actions and resources were supported by

complementary sector investment operations of either the Bank or other DPs (often

through ―baskets‖ to leverage the resources). Attention was also paid to cross-links

among clusters. For example, spatial inequalities in the development of human resources

(Cluster 2) were in part to be addressed through pay policies for remote areas (Cluster 3).

And, when unexpectedly poor (income) poverty results emerged in 2007/08, the Bank

and other DPs reacted quickly, refocused their analysis and tried to figure out what can be

done to spread the benefits of strong GDP growth more widely. The urgency of

improving the performance of agriculture and the environment for doing business was

ratcheted up. At the same time the push continued to improve social well-being as well

as putting in place an apparatus needed for more accountable, more transparent and more

effective governance. The relevance rating is Satisfactory.

Achievements of the PDOs, however, were mixed. Most PDO indicators were not fully

achieved, but overwhelmingly the improvements were in the right direction. Looking at

sub-indicators, the glass is more than half full. There seemed to be some loss of reform

momentum towards the end of the series. On the other hand, the earlier operations may

have benefited from the reforms of the early 2000s. There is also some evidence that in a

number of areas (e.g. PEFA indicators and perhaps some aspects of CPIA) Tanzania may

have been over-rated at the start of the second PRSC series. This may have biased the

initial expectations upward and made subsequent progress look slower than it actually

was. On balance, the achievement of PDOs and other outcome indicators is rated as

21

Moderately Satisfactory, resulting in an Overall Outcome Rating of the PRSC 4-8

program for Tanzania as Moderately Satisfactory.

3.4 Overarching Themes, Other Outcomes and Impacts

(a) Poverty Impacts, Gender Aspects, and Social Development

Covered elsewhere

(b) Institutional Change/Strengthening

Covered elsewhere

(c) Other Unintended Outcomes and Impacts (positive or negative)

The global financial crisis, as well as the food price shock that preceded it, were two

impacts that could not have been foreseen. The Bank (as well as other DPs and the IMF)

reacted in a coherent fashion to offset the impact of the crises. The Bank quickly

processed a financing operation for $170 million, supplemental to PRSC 7 to provide

additional budget support as the Government implemented a rescue package during

FY09/10 to counter the negative macroeconomic shock from the financial crisis.

Specifically, PRSC-7 supplemental financing was provided to contribute to maintaining

the overall reform program on track and ensuring the FY09/10 budget contributions in

support of MKUKUTA can be financed and implemented during the time of the crisis.

Compared with the macroeconomic and budgetary projections at the time of PRSC-7

Negotiations, FY09/10 budget was significant higher due to additional expenditures

related to the rescue package.

3.5 Summary of Findings of Beneficiary Survey and/or Stakeholder Workshops

None

22

4. Assessment of Risk to Development Outcomes

Ratings: The risk to Development Outcomes is Moderate

If the problems of the rural and small business sectors are not addressed with more

urgency and determination, they will continue to undermine progress towards shared

GDP growth and the reduction of income poverty. The links between demography,

growth, social well-being and poverty should probably be added to the equation.

Tanzania is very aid dependent and the government is prone to slippages in its

control of the budget. Despite the increasing ratio of revenues to GDP over the past five

years, the revenues do not cover rapidly growing recurrent expenditures (a gap of 2-4%

of GDP). The overall expenditure to GDP ratio which recently reached almost 30% is

probably too high for a country at Tanzania’s level of development. One of the things

driving it up is the wage bill, which when one includes various allowances is in the range

of 9-10% of GDP. Someone has to be taxed to pay for that which almost surely

negatively affects incentives for effort. Finally, there is a risk that the donors for a variety

of reasons freeze or even cut back on budget support, forcing the government to either

curb the expenditures or raise taxes. This could disrupt both recurrent and public

investment expenditures of the government and lead to a negative impact on growth and

poverty reduction

Limited human resource capacity to implement and manage the PRSC reform agenda

represents a significant risk. It was noted earlier that the government may already be

overstretched because of the wide-ranging scope of the development agenda. A large

number of capacity-building efforts are in place. Most reform programs have capacity-

building components embedded, including the PFMRP, the LGRP, and the PSRP.

Similarly, sector programs and projects typically also contain capacity-building

components. The challenge for Tanzania is to enhance the effectiveness of capacity-

building efforts by shifting from supply-driven to demand-driven efforts and address

capacity building in a holistic way, in which the incentive structure, the education system,

and specific capacity-building efforts are organized in a mutually reinforcing manner.

One of the intentions of the redesigned GBS framework is to use domestic processes for

the assessment of progress and dialogue. This is intended to foster domestic

accountability. However, as some of the analytic work has shown, these processes are

still weak, partly because of weak incentives and capacity of civil society organizations,

NGOs, and the private sector to participate in these processes. Recent events, though,

have shown a renewed vigor in the oversight role of Parliament and of the media, and the

initial prosecutions of a number of grand corruption cases, if carried uniformly, should

make a dent in the ―culture of impunity‖. On the other hand, few of the grand corruption

cases have ended with the perpetrators being punished, and that increases the risk that

other scams may occur.

Another risk for the achievement of MKUKUTA objectives arises from the ongoing

decentralization process, which shifts responsibility for key poverty-reducing programs

23

in education, health, the water sector, and agriculture to the districts. The local

government reform program focuses on strengthening the capacity of local authorities. As

a result, there have been significant improvements in accountability processes at the local

level, and about 50 percent of local authorities now meet basic accountability standards,

compared to an estimated 10 percent only a few years ago. This should make it possible

to implement financing reforms now under way that would put greater funds in the local

hands. But this may also increase the risk of misuse or ineffective use of funds. The

PRSC program also supports actions to strengthen the watchdog role of beneficiaries at

the community level through disclosure of the flow of resources at the grassroots level

and expenditure tracking of financial flows from the central government.

The 2006 and 2008 PEFA assessments suggest that Tanzania’s financial management

system is still among the best in Africa. Nonetheless, fiduciary risks in the areas of

financial management and procurement remain. There is also the issue of arrears from

road contracts during PRSC-7 Supplementary Financing which raised a question about

the quality of the commitment control system. In recent years, the Government has

implemented measures to reduce fiduciary risks, including the approval and application

of new public finance and procurement acts, the operationalization of the electronic

Integrated Financial Management Information System (IFMIS), strengthening of the

National Audit Office, and reform of the public procurement system. The PFMRP and

actions monitored by the PRSC and PAF are designed to address weaknesses in the

Government’s financial management and procurement systems, with particular emphasis

on the integrity of IFMIS. Tight follow up of the Government’s action plan on the EPA

account audit, and of other government measures to assess eventual past fraudulent

transactions at the Central Bank are also underway.

Finally, there are some risks that come from Tanzania’s external environment. With the

global economic recovery now well underway, food and fuel prices have again increased

and are likely to worsen Tanzania’s terms of trade. Similarly, domestic shocks such as

recurrent droughts may occur. This may affect both agricultural output and hydroelectric

power generation. However, in terms of containing the fallout from such events on

development outcomes, determined actions in improving agriculture and business

environment as well as continued efforts to develop power generation that is not

dependent on the vicissitudes of weather, would go a long way towards making the

economy more flexible and thus better able to withstand shocks of various kinds.

While those risks exist, there is momentum that has not been lost. There have been

positive outcomes in all broad areas of reform including crop boards reform, road, anti-

corruption, PPP, and PFM. While progress toward achieving some PDOs had slowed

down, some momentum has been built and the chance that such momentum gets

reversed would be very small. In addition, the next series of PRSCs is likely to try to

consolidate the gains achieved from this series, while pushing into new areas of reform

and ensuring macro-fiscal stability and help the Government scale up domestic revenue

mobilization. Overall, thus, the risk that the development outcomes will not be achieved

is Moderate.

24

5. Assessment of Bank and Borrower Performance

5.1 Bank Performance

(a) Bank Performance in Ensuring Quality at Entry

Ratings: Bank Performance at Ensuring Quality at Entry was Satisfactory

The design of the PRSC series followed the best practice guidelines for PRSC operations.

PRSC 5 received a Highly Satisfactory rating for QAE and was commended for best

practice in how it went about designing the mechanisms for harmonizing aid from the

DPs. The operations focused on strategically relevant issues. As problems arose, they

were addressed in a subsequent operation. For example, when the results of the 2007

HBS only marginal improvements in rural poverty, the issue was addressed more

vigorously in the subsequent PRSC and more emphasis was put on measures that would

speed up growth in the countryside. The macroeconomic environment was always

conducive to reforms. Environmental aspects and other safeguards were covered.

Fiduciary aspects were attended to and under PRSC 6 the handling of potential fiduciary

problems stemming from alleged corruption at the BOT was made a condition of

negotiations. M&E aspects were a bit weak at the start of the series but improved over

time. Risk assessments were realistic. And Bank inputs and processes were adhered to,

including seeking advice from a wide circle of people. Quality at entry was Satisfactory.

(b) Quality of Supervision

Ratings: Quality of Supervision has been Satisfactory

While the system Tanzania has put in place for M&E of MKUKUTA is elaborate, it has

remained mainly donor oriented, producing M&E outputs of uneven relevance. The

underlying M&E system is under revision to strengthen information quality, policy

relevance, and integration with the budget process, notably by (i) implementing a new

national statistical master plan; (ii) carrying out the implementation of an annual Living

Standards Measurement Study (LSMS) panel survey, started in 2009; (iii) supporting the

strengthening of the internal reporting requirements of the Government, in particular, the

output and performance reports newly introduced in the latest budget guidelines; and (iv)

better aligning MKUKUTA’s M&E process with what the NBS and other providers of

statistics provide with some reliability on a regular basis.

Results monitoring of budget support suffers from the unavailability or low frequency of

some of the critical outcome indicators, such as poverty estimates, health outcomes, or

learning achievements. The poverty survey data in the third quarter of 2008, and

subsequently the results of the annual panel survey as well as the demographic and health

survey planned for 2009, allow a much tighter follow up on the impact of the government

policies and spending. An additional dimension of the monitoring framework covers the

25

Government-donor relationship in monitoring progress on PRSC objectives, such as

enhanced local ownership of the development process, participation by all stakeholders,

and efficiency of aid delivery mechanisms. In particular, the PRSC team has been

working with the Poverty Reduction Budget Support (PRBS) partners to enhance the

capacity of, and information flows with, Parliament, civil society, and the private sector.

In February 2010, a PER parliamentary forum was organized by the Finance and

Economic Committee of the Parliament, and the Bank was asked to contribute

extensively by presenting the results of the PER analytical work.

Under these circumstances, the DPs participating in GBS had to develop some of their

own ways of monitoring progress, which supplemented the indicators available under

MKUKUTA’s M&E system. Further, the PRSC series had to narrow the range of

indicators further and adapt them to follow the policy actions supported by the PRSC

series.

The PRSC implementation was conducted largely by field-based staff on the ground, who

were in very close touch with the Authorities bilaterally as well as through GBS cluster

working groups and sector working groups. While the harmonized GBS system has

helped the Government reduce transaction cost with DPs, coordination process within

DPs has become very complex as the system evolves with more comprehensive PAF and

the M&E framework. In such an environment, the team took leadership in formulating

directions in PAF rather than simply passively following the outcomes from the GBS

consultation process in preparing and implementing the PRSC operations. The closeness

to the client made seamless supervision possible in implementing the operations under

the series. Also, The team’s careful supervision of the program allowed the team

promptly react to the request for a supplemental financing of US$170 million to PRSC-7

to finance the Government provide a fiscal stimulus package to counter negative impacts

from the global financial crisis. The supplemental financing had contributed to

maintaining the overall reform program on track and ensuring the FY09/10 budget

contributions in support of MKUKUTA can be financed and implemented.

The rating for supervision is assessed to have been Satisfactory

(c) Justification of Rating for Overall Bank Performance

Ratings: The Overall Bank Performance was Satisfactory

Overall, the Bank performance was satisfactory, based on its sound design of the program

at the entry, as shown in the ―highly satisfactory‖ QAG rating for quality at the entry for

PRSC-5, as well as high quality of supervision supported by the solid field-presence of

the team members. The rating simply follows the ICR guidelines. The lower of the two

scores for Bank Performance determines the average rating.

26

5.2 Borrower Performance

(a) Government Performance

Ratings: Government Performance was Moderately Unsatisfactory

Note that government performance is for the overall government including sector

ministries in implementing various reforms under MKUKUTA.

Government ownership and commitment to achieving PDOs was strong throughout the

program. The language of high level policy documents, as well as the statements of

senior officials, was unequivocally in favor of continuing reforms across a broad front

with the aim of fostering rapid, broadly shared economic growth.

However, there is, on average, a wide gap between the language used in the documents

such as MKUKUTA and its implementation. As pointed out earlier in this evaluation,

there have been undeniable successes is several areas of reform, most notably in health,

education and access to potable water. Nevertheless, the movement in a number of other

areas was not strong enough to make decisive turns for the better in rural development, or

in the environment for doing business, areas in which the overwhelming majority of

Tanzanians make their living. There was also, on balance, lack of clear success in

improving the performance of entities that play critical roles in the functioning of

Tanzania’s infrastructure --- energy, transportation (road, rail, air), communications, and

ports. Some progress, yes, but slow compared to the needs. This point is supported by

ICRs of WB investment loans that in some way supported reforms in these areas, except

for the progress in improving the major road network, including the road fund, which has

been a success. Towards the end of the PRSC program period there was also progress in

the functioning of the ports, but questions were also raised about the transparency of the

deals made with the port operators. The process also continued to waste substantial public

resources, including large opportunity costs of tying up financial and human resources

that could have been put to better use elsewhere. And scandals due to corruption in the

power sector were not only damaging in terms of reputation, but more importantly,

significantly slowed down the much needed increases in power supplies. Lack of power

is now perceived as a major constraint by over 80% of Tanzania’s businesses.

Similarly, progress in the areas of accountability, anti-corruption and effectiveness of

government was too slow compared to the needs. In addition, reforms that came slowly to

begin with (triggers were in a number of significant cases watered down or delayed from

one PRSC to the next), were later eroded through amendments or delays in

implementation. This seemed to happen in some way in almost all areas of the

governance and accountability cluster. The government did try to improve its

effectiveness through various measures, including importantly its Medium-Term Pay

reform. But at the end of the day, while the wage bill had increased by several percentage

points of GDP (becoming as a proportion of GDP one of the larger ones in Africa, to the

point of threatening to undermine fiscal discipline), the pay scales were still compressed

in the middle, the spatial inequalities in the allocation of personnel were not substantially

27

reduced, and the incentive-distorting allowances continued (if by another name). The

World Governance Indicator measuring effectiveness of government was one of the few

PDO indicators that actually worsened during the period covered by PRSC 4-8.

Typically, when the reform program is broad and complex, and some of the reforms are

politically difficult to implement, there needs to be very strong coordination from the

center. In the case of Tanzania this was to come from the Prime Minister’s and/or the

President’s Office. In a number of important cases, the response was not sufficiently

aggressive. Government performance was therefore assessed as Moderately

Unsatisfactory.

(b) Implementing Agency or Agencies Performance

Ratings: Performance of the Implementing Agency was Moderately Satisfactory

Note that implementing agency is Ministry of Finance only in the narrow sense of

managing the GoT implementation of PRSC operations.

Ministry of Finance was the Bank’s main counterpart throughout the PRSC 4-8 program.

The view of the people interviewed is that its performance has been Moderately

Satisfactory. The Ministry of Finance, as the organizer of the MKUKUTA review

process, successfully managed the process of conducting the annual MKUKUTA national

policy dialogue, ensuring the process is also participatory for the civil society. It also

successfully managed the deliberations of the complex GBS annual review process,

starting from the sector review including interactions with GBS donor group (14 DPs) to

agree on assessment outcomes of current PAFs and jointly formulate contents of future

PAFs. However, due to capacity constraint, the management of the process became

slightly weak, as illustrated by a few cases of delays in completing the review process as

well as PRSC appraisal process.

(c) Justification of Rating for Overall Borrower Performance

Ratings: Overall Borrower Performance was Moderately Satisfactory

ICR Guidelines suggest that when the ratings of Government Performance and

Implementing/Coordinating Agency Performance differ, the rating of Overall Outcome

Performance of the program should be taken into account. Since the Overall Performance

was Satisfactory, the Overall Performance of the Borrower has been Moderately

Satisfactory.

28

6. Lessons Learned

There are both specific and general lessons to be learned from the PRSC 4-8 series.

Specifically, looking at the outcomes in the three clusters of MKUKUTA, the biggest

challenge is how to convert Tanzania’s relatively strong GDP growth into reduction of

(income) poverty. What stands out at the end of the second series of PRSCs is that (i)

agriculture has barely outpaced the rate of growth of population; and (ii) business

environment, particularly for small entrepreneurs, remains inadequate, with the result that

more than half of Tanzania’s GDP continues to be generated by the informal sector. And

the links between demography, growth, poverty and social well-being should not be

forgotten. Until this area is fixed, the vast majority of Tanzanians will not be able to

enjoy the fruits of rapid growth. This observation has been made repeatedly in various

donor and government documents, but has not led to convincing action. An in-depth re-

examination of the causes of this failure is in order and it should encompass everything

from the analytical findings (of which there are many), to how precisely the problems

will be handled at the technical and, most importantly, political levels.

The way forward in the other two clusters seems easier. There has been clear success in

improving the well-being of ordinary Tanzanians. Various health, education and clean,

accessible water indicators have improved, some substantially.4 One of the weaker ones

has been continued stagnation in high maternal mortality. The key ingredients to

lowering that, according to UNFPA, are attendance of qualified medical personnel at

birth, good emergency obstetrics care and family planning. The last one is crucial not

just in order to lower maternal mortality, but also because of the correlation between

slower population growth and faster GDP growth, a correlation that is likely to be

stronger in the large rural and small business segment of the population.

In the governance and accountability cluster the way forward is to build on the existing

momentum in public financial management, budgeting, anti-corruption and the reform of

the public service. Perhaps the key areas are bringing to justice the perpetrators of cases

of grand corruption (which may have positive spill-over effects on the presence of

corruption in general) and continued reform in the incentive framework as well as the

overall size of the public service. Public employees should have the incentives to ―be in

the right places doing the desirable things‖.

The coordination function at the highest level should be strengthened. When reforms flag

for whatever reason, it is only a group at the top that has the Prime Minister’s and the

President’s backing that can untangle the problems.

The GBS process which at one time was hailed as ―state of the art‖, may have become

too cumbersome at this point. A number of DPs and Bank Staff suggested that there are

4 The main problem in the education sector today is poor outcomes at primary and secondary levels.

Increases in enrollment combined with supply-side constraints (failing infrastructure, inequitable staff

allocation, and a shortage of skilled teachers and educational materials) have caused declines in quality.

29

too many groups, that the various levels do not communicate sufficiently with one

another (information coming from the DP troika to the lower levels ―gets lost‖) and that

the costs of so much coordination may outweigh the benefits. There is a sense that when

things are going well, the mechanism works, but when reforms are flagging, as seems to

be the DP view at the moment, disagreements on the way forward increase and the

harmonization mechanism becomes a constraint.

A number of general lessons also apply to the Tanzania PRSC (and DPLs in low income

countries in general). They have become generic but, if policy loans to Tanzania are to

continue, should be observed and perhaps honed.

First, there is no avoiding conditionality. Good Practice Principles of Policy-based

Lending are now routinely stated in almost every operation and have become second

nature in designing policy-based operations. Donors should reinforce government

ownership by supporting rather than duplicating government processes (aid

harmonization among donors, alignment of aid with the budget cycle, use of government

procurement processes, etc.). There should be an accountability framework that guides

both government and donors. Prior Actions (as conditions of disbursement) should be

few but critical to the achievement of agreed results. Progress reviews should be

transparent and conducive to performance-based, predictable budget support.

Second, unlike investment lending operations, PRSCs are able, in principle, to deal with

complex cross-cutting issues when the Government has the requisite technical and

coordination capacities and the operations are supplemented by sector ILs, TA and

competent analytical work. If the coordination and technical capacities are limited,

interventions in complex cross-cutting areas have to be prioritized and sequenced. Over

time, as capacities get stronger, the number of complex interventions can be increased.

This is an area in which wishful thinking often replaces hard-nosed realism, and results in

less than acceptable outcomes.

Third, committed political leadership makes a difference. Yet, even the best leadership

can only accomplish so much in a given time period. It must overcome ever-present

vested interests, old mind-sets and ingrained behaviors, even assuming that technical and

organizational capacities are adequate. This is a tricky area. There are often AAA

products (as was the case with a string of policy notes in Tanzania) that identify aspects

of these issues and there is anecdotal evidence. But the job of transforming that

knowledge into successful interventions ultimately falls to the government. The donors

can at best figure out what actions are likely to succeed and back them, or decide that the

government is unlikely to follow through and back off. It is extremely difficult to get that

balance right. Tanzania has been no exception.

Finally, measuring outcomes is important in order to increase focus and accountability.

Realistic, focused monitoring frameworks that track progress over time towards ultimate

objectives, concentrate the mind of government as well as the donors.

30

7. Comments on Issues Raised by Borrower/Implementing Agencies/Partners

Several DPs that provide financing through the GBS said that the Bank’s leading role in

the GBS process, from analytical work to financing, is important and should continue.

They acknowledged that the slow-down in the reform process in the last few years, as

well as weakening of Tanzania’s budgetary discipline last year, have been frustrating but

were hopeful that the differences between the Government and the DPs could be bridged.

31

Annex 1. Bank Lending and Implementation Support/Supervision Processes

(a) Task Team members

P095509 - Tanzania PRSC-4

Names Title Unit Responsibility/

Specialty Lending

Denis Maro Biseko Sr Public Sector Spec. AFTPR

Parminder P. S. Brar Lead Financial Management Spec AFTFM

Francis Ato Brown Sector Manager, Water MNSSD

Rogati Anael Kayani Consultant AFTPC

Rest Barnabas Lasway Sr Education Spec. PA9SS

Julie McLaughlin Sector Manager, Health, Nutrition SASHN

Allister J. Moon Lead Economist WBIGV

Denyse E. Morin Senior Operations Officer OPCIL

Philip Isdor N. Mpango Senior Economist AFTP2

Emmanuel A. Mungunasi Economist AFTP2

Robert Townsend Senior Economist ARD

Michael D. Wong Sr Private Sector Development SASFP

Robert Utz Senior Economist AFTP2 TTL

Supervision

Modupe A. Adebowale Consultant AFTFM



Serigne Omar Fye Consultant AFTSP

Henry F. Gordon Sr Sector Economist AFTAR

Rogati Anael Kayani Consultant AFTPC


Baruany Elijah A. T. Luhanga Consultant AFTUW

Julie McLaughlin Sector Manager, Health, Nutrition SASHN




Mary-Anne D. Mwakangale Program Assistant AFCE1

Edith Ruguru Mwenda Sr Counsel LEGAF

Vedasto Rwechungura Consultant AFTDP

Dieter E. Schelling Lead Transport Specialist AFTTR

Arlette Sourou Program Assistant AFTP2

Robert Townsend Senior Economist ARD



P095657 - Tanzania Fifth Poverty Reduction Support Credit


Specialty Lending



32



Johannes G. Hoogeveen Senior Economist AFTP2

Ralph Ake Karhammar Sr Energy Spec. AFTEG



Julie McLaughlin Sector Manager, Health, Nutrit SASHN





Christian Albert Peter Sr Natural Resources Mgmt. Spe AFTEN


Mercy Mataro Sabai Sr Financial Management Specia AFTFM


Pascal Tegwa Senior Procurement Specialist AFTPC

Solomon Muhuthu Waithaka Sr Highway Engineer AFTTR



Supervision

Modupe A. Adebowale Consultant AFTFM

Gregor Binkert Lead Specialist AFTP1




Matthew D. Glasser Lead Urban Specialist SASDU


Pankaj Gupta Lead Financial Specialist AFTEG






Donald Paul Mneney Senior Procurement Specialist AFTPC








Ravi Ruparel Sr Financial Sector Spec. AFTFE





Pascal Tegwa Senior Procurement Specialist AFTPC

Robert Johann Utz Senior Economist AFTP3

Linda Van Gelder Sector Manager EASPR

33



P101229 - Sixth Poverty Reduction Support Credit (PRSC6)


Specialty Lending and Supervision







Josaphat Paul Kweka Senior Economist AFTP2





Jacques Morisset Lead Economist AFTP1








Luis M. Schwarz Senior Finance Officer CTRFC

Vera Songwe Adviser MDO


Javier Suarez Cordero Senior Economist AFTFE


Paolo B. Zacchia Lead Economist AFTP2 TTL

P101230 - Tanzania Seventh Poverty Reduction Support Credit


Specialty Lending and Supervision

Sherri Ellen Archondo Senior Operations Officer AFTFE





Pankaj Gupta Lead Financial Specialist AFTEG

Dominic S. Haazen Lead Health Policy Specialist AFTHE


Arun R. Joshi Sr Education Spec. AFTED


34

Rosemary Mukami Kariuki Sector Leader AFTUW

Jane A. N. Kibbassa Sr Environmental Spec. AFTEN

Josaphat Paul Kweka Senior Economist AFTP2



Ida Manjolo WBIVP

Donald Paul Mneney Senior Procurement Specialist AFTPC





Adam Nelsson Country Officer AFCE1





Robert Schlotterer Financial Analyst AFTEG


Javier Suarez Cordero Senior Economist AFTFE

Satoru Ueda Lead Water Resources Specialis AFTWR

Yutaka Yoshino Economist AFTP2


P117345 - Tanzania Seventh Poverty Reduction Support Credit Supplemental Financing


Specialty

Lending

Javier Suarez Cordero Senior Economist AFTP2 TTL


Jos Verbeek Lead Economist AFTP2

Sergiy Zorya Senior Economist AFTAR

Yutaka Yoshino Economist AFTP2

P116666 - Tanzania Eighth Poverty Reduction Support Credit


Specialty Lending

Sherri Ellen Archondo Senior Operations Officer AFTFE


Madhur Gautam Lead Economist SASDA

Dominic S. Haazen Lead Health Policy Specialist AFTHE

Arun R. Joshi Sr Education Spec. AFTED

Regina Astrid Martinez

Fernandez E T Consultant AFTFE

Yonas Eliesikia Mchomvu Transport Specialist AFTTR



Michel Noel Lead Financial Specialist AFTFE


35



Yutaka Yoshino Economist AFTP2 Co-TTL


Sergiy Zorya Economist AFTAR

Supervision

Yutaka Yoshino Economist AFTP2 ICR TTL


Yue Lie Young Professional AFTP2

Peter Miovic Consultant AFTP2 ICR Author

(b) Staff Time and Cost

P095509 - Tanzania PRSC-4

Stage

Staff Time and Cost (Bank Budget Only)

No. of staff weeks USD Thousands (including

travel and consultant costs)

Lending and Supervision

FY06 33.5 149.58

FY07 0.2 0.94

Total: 33.7 150.52

P095657 - Tanzania Fifth Poverty Reduction Support Credit

Stage





FY07 69 282.53

FY08 4 17.97

Total: 73 300.50

P101229 - Sixth Poverty Reduction Support Credit (PRSC6)

Stage





FY08 51 193.21

FY09 14 72.54

Total: 65 265.75

P101230 – Tanzania PRSC 7


Stage No. of Staff Weeks US$ Thousands(including


Lending

FY 2009 39.72 202,024.76

Supervision (including PRSC-7 Supplemental financing)

FY 2009 0.00 31,770.80

FY 2010 9.52 72,544.15

36

Totals for FY2009-2010 49.24 306,339.71

P117345 – Tanzania PRSC 7 Supplemental Financing

(Lending only, Supervision is included in PRSC 7 supervision) Staff Time and Cost (Bank Budget Only)

Stage No. of Staff Weeks US$ Thousands(including


Lending

FY 2010 22.01 94,551.56

Supervision of PRSC-7 Supplemental Financing is included in PRSC-7.

Totals for FY2009-2010 22.01 94,551.56

P116666 Tanzania Eighth PRSC


Stage

No. of Staff Weeks US$ Thousands

(including labor, travel

and consultant costs) Lending

FY 2010 32.38 222,330.90

FY2011 9.55 65,460.77

Supervision including ICR preparation

FY 2011 17.03 98,691.53

Totals for FY2010-2011 58.96 386,483.20

37

Annex 2. Program Performance

PRSC 4

List of Triggers from Program Document Status/Comments at

Appraisal

Progress in the implementation of the Action Plan for the

Rationalization of the Roles, Functions, Financing and Accountability of

Crop Boards, consistent with the Agriculture Sector Development

Strategy (ASDS), including issuing of ministerial circular for Crop

Boards to cease charging levies/cess

Completed Prior action has been adjusted

to provide more specificity.

Progress in the implementation of the strategic plan for operationalizing

the Land Act and Village Land Act, including issuing of 400 certificates

of customary rights during first half of FY06.

Completed Prior action has adjusted to

provide more specificity..

Draft bill o n Business Activities Registration submitted to Parliament. Completed

Approved budget for FY06 in line with MKUKUTA Completed Substantively the same,

language simplified as budget

coding is in place

Expenditure outturn for FY05 consistent with approved budget Completed Review period adjusted in line

with new GBS schedule

National Audit Office staff has been trained, and procurement and

installation of computer equipment at the National Audit Office

completed, allowing audit through IFMS in future periods

Completed

Organization Structure o f PPRA approved and additional budgetary

resources allocated to PPRA Completed Two procurement related

triggers were delayed due to

capacity constraints and

replaced by a prior action

which reflects more

appropriately the prioritized

sequencing of activities o f the

newly established PPRA.

Pay enhancement consistent with the approved budget for FY06, and the

overall thrust o f the pay reform Completed

Process agreed to reform the public sector allowances regime, based on

the recommendations o f ongoing review. Completed

Satisfactory health sector review. Completed Added to reflect focus of

new GBS program on sector

review processes

PRSC 5


Appraisal

Amendments o f Crop Board Legislation for at least two Crop Boards

submitted to Parliament

Not Completed. Instead

Government decided to

conduct consultations for all

four crop Boards and sign an

MOU, and amend crop board

legislation later for all boards

simultaneously.

Progress in the reform of the Business Activities Registration and

the Business Regulatory Licensing Regime, including reflecting private

sector views in the redrafting o f the business activities registration bill.

Completed.

Added specificity to original

trigger

Roads Bill Submitted to Parliament Partially Completed. Instead

38

a draft Roads Bill was

prepared and Cabinet

approved submission of new

Roads Bill to Parliament.

Approved budget for FY07 in line with policy objectives (MKUKUTA)

Completed.

Expenditure outturn for FY06 consistent with approved budget

Completed.

National Audit Office General Report for FY05 issued by April 2006.

Completed.

Satisfactory health sector review carried out

Completed.

Satisfactory education sector review carried out

Completed.

Satisfactory water sector review carried out

Completed.

PRSC 6


Appraisal

Draft amendments to crop board legislation submitted for stakeholder

consultations and strategic plans for all crop boards finalized Completed

Progress in the implementation of the TANESCO financial

recovery plan, notably in increasing revenues, and strengthening

governance of the sector by improved regulation

Completed

Road Bill submitted to Parliament Completed.

In fact the road bill was

enacted

Prioritized Transport Sector Investment Plan finalized with adequate

provision for maintenance and a framework for PPP Completed

Satisfactory health sector review carried out

Partially completed

Satisfactory education sector review carried out

Partially completed

Satisfactory water sector review carried out

Partially completed

Anti-corruption bill submitted to Parliament Completed.

In fact it was enacted

Audit Bill submitted to Parliament Completed

Audit bill geared to Afrosai 3

requirements enacted

Approved budget for FY 07/08 in line with policy objectives

(MKUKUTA) Completed

Expenditure outturn for FY 06/07 in line with policy objectives

Completed

PRSC 7


Appraisal

Business Activities Registration Act regulations consistent with one-

stop-shop good practice approved Not completed

Further progress in implementation of the TANESCO financial recovery

plan by the government taking all necessary actions

regarding any additional measures that may be required to strengthen

TANESCO’s revenue base, as appropriate by October 2008

Completed

Framework for PPP, including in the transport sector, finalized and

approved by October 2008. Partially completed

Being readied for Cabinet

39

approval

Education sector performance report for 2007/08 prepared on the basis

of an agreed sector monitoring tool. Completed

Health Sector Performance for 2006107 updated and Health Sector

Performance Report for 2007/08 produced and disseminated. Completed

Satisfactory Water Sector Review carried out

Completed

A revised Medium-Term Pay Policy is adopted by government by

February 2009 as the basis for reform of pay and allowances. Draft

available by December 2008

Partially completed

Draft background report

produced by March 2009

Concrete steps taken to

prepare a revised MT Pay

Policy as basis for reform of

pay and allowances.

Collect information and report on transparent and accountable system of

licenses/concession allocations and how this meets market values in the

forestry, fisheries, wildlife, minerals and oil & gas sectors

Substantially completed

Market values not available

Approval granted by October 2008 to create a new Department of

Internal Audit in the Ministry of Finance and Economic Affairs,

and regulations under the Procurement and Supplies Professional Board

Act prepared and issued (gazetted)

Partially completed

Procurement regulations

prepared but not yet gazetted

Expenditure outturn for FY07/08 consistent with approved budget and

recurrent budget deviation reduced Not completed

Approved budget for FY08/09 in line with policy objectives

(MKUKUTA, sector policies) Completed

PRSC 8


Appraisal

Update FIAS study paying particular attention to regulations and local

taxes affecting agriculture and undertake consultations and agree to an

action plan based on the findings and recommendations of the study.

Not completed. FIAS study was carried out

However, no action plan and

no measures were taken.

Action plan to improve accountability and transparency in allocating

natural resource licenses and concessions approved and implementation

initiated.

Completed

Progress in completion of land registry Partially completed

An Energy Tariff application was successfully submitted by TANESCO

to the regulator to allow for revenue collection to meet full operational

cost recovery in 2011, and full cost recovery in 2013

Completed

Government improved port congestion situation by three key measures:

(i)

Tanzania Ports Authority prepared a preliminary version of a time-

bound action plan for moving to Landlord Status; (ii) Based on TPA

application, SUMATRA approved increase in port storage tariffs and

reduction in free time; and (iii) Government established own area for

impounded containers.

Completed

PPP bill approved by Parliament. Completed

Satisfactory education, health and water sector reviews carried out

(based on an assessment of progress on agreed outcome targets,

adequacy of resource allocation, achievement of sector milestones, and

adequacy of stakeholder consultations).

Completed

GoT approves Targets related to the adopted Medium-Term Pay Policy,

incorporating strategies to address (inter-district) inequity in human

resource distribution.

Not Completed

Presentation to Parliament of new Public Procurement Act that increases Completed

40

autonomy of PPRA and its power to enforce procurement rules.

Expenditure outturn for FY08/09 consistent with approved budget and

recurrent budget deviation reduced. Completed

Approved FY09/10 budget broadly in line with policy objectives

(MKUKUTA, sector policies). Partially completed

41

Annex 3. Tanzania PRSC 4-8 Series Reform Support Matrix (by PDO Areas for

each PRSC)

A. Business Environment

PDO. Improve business environment by maintaining a conducive macro framework and

reducing administrative barriers.

PRSC Triggers (from previous

operation)

PRSC Prior Actions Analytical Underpinnings

PRSC-4 Draft bill on Business Activities

Registration submitted to Parliament

Draft bill on Business Activities

Registration submitted to Parliament

WB "Sustaining and Sharing

Growth", DTIS, ICA (2003)

PRSC-5 Progress in the reform of the

Business Registration and the

Business Regulatory Licensing Regime.

Progress in the reform of the

Business Activities Registration and

the Business Regulatory Licensing Regime, including reflecting private

sector reviews in the redrafting of

the business activities registration bill.


Growth", DTIS, ICA (2003),

Doing Business Report, Rural-urban linkage study and informal

sector

PRSC-6

PRSC-7 Business Activities Registration Act

regulations consistent with one-stop-shop good practice approved.

(Dropped) CEM, Notes on infrastructure,

trade, and agriculture, ICA (2008), Rapid Poverty

Assessment

PRSC-8 Agriculture marketing notes, ICA (2008), Micro Foundations for

Growth, Trade and logistics

B. Infrastructure and PPP

PDO. Increase access of private sector to key inputs, in particular credit and backbone

services.


operation)


PRSC-4 WB "Sustaining and Sharing


PRSC-5 Roads Bill submitted to

Parliament.

Preparation of a draft Roads Bill,

including a road inventory and

Cabinet approval of the

submission of a new Roads Bill

to Parliament.



PRSC-6 Roads Bill submitted to

Parliament.

Progress in the implementation

of the TANESCO financial

recovery plan, notably in

increasing revenues, and

strengthening governance of the

sector by improved regulation.

Prioritized Transport Sector

Investment Plan finalized with

Road bill enacted.


of the TANESCO financial

recovery plan, notably in

increasing revenues, and

strengthening governance of the

sector by improved regulation.

Prioritized Transport Sector

Investment Plan finalized with

PSI on energy

42

adequate provision for

maintenance and a framework

for PPP.

adequate provision for

maintenance and a framework

for PPP.

PRSC-7 Further progress in

implementation of the

TANESCO financial recovery

plan by the government taking

all necessary actions regarding

any additional measures that

may be required to strengthen

TANESCO’s revenue base, as

appropriate by October 2008.

Framework for PPP including in

the transport sector, finalized

and approved by October 2008.

Further progress in

implementation of the

TANESCO financial recovery

plan to strengthen TANESCO’s

revenue base.

National PPP policy, including

the infrastructure sector,

prepared, discussed with

stakeholders, and being readied

for Cabinet approval.

CEM, Notes on infrastructure,

trade, and agriculture, PSIA

energy, ICA (2008)

PRSC-8 Strengthening TANESCO’s

revenue collection to meet full

operational cost recovery in

2010.

Draft bill and regulatory

framework for Private Public

Partnership submitted to

Parliament.

Government improves port

congestion situation by three key

measures: (i) Tanzania Ports

Authority presents a time-bound

action plan for moving to

Landlord Status; (ii) TPA to

submit a solid proposal to

SUMATRA to approve increase

in port storage tariffs and

reduction in free time; and (iii)

Government establish own area

for impounded containers.

An energy tariff application was

successfully submitted by

TANESCO to the regulator to

allow for revenue collection to

meet full operational cost

recovery in 2011 and full cost

recovery by 2013.

PPP bill approved by

Parliament.

Government improved port

congestion by three key

measures: (i) Tanzania Ports

Authority prepared a preliminary

version of a time-bound action

plan for moving to Landlord

Status; (ii) Based on TPA

application, SUMATRA

approved increase in port storage

tariffs and reduction in free time;

and (iii) Government established

own area for impounded

containers.

ICA (2008), Micro

Foundations for Growth,

Trade and logistics

C. Agriculture, Rural, Land, and Natural Resources

PDO. Improve livelihoods in rural areas where the majority of the poor work, through

improved agricultural policies, and expansion of rural infrastructure.


operation)


PRSC-4 Progress in the implementation

of the Action Plan for the

Rationalization of Roles,

Functions, Financing and

Progress in the implementation of

the Action Plan for the

Rationalization of Roles,

Functions, Financing and


Growth", Rural ICA, Growth-

environment analytical work

43

Accountability of Crop Boards,

consistent with the Agriculture

Sector Development Strategy.


of the strategic plan for

operationalizing the Land Act

and Village Land Act.

Accountability of Crop Boards,

consistent with the Agriculture

Sector Development Strategy

(ASDS), including issuing of

ministerial circular for Crop

Boards to cease charging

levies/cess.

Progress in the implementation of

the strategic plan for

operationalizing the Land Act and

Village Land Act, including

issuing of 400 certificates of

customary rights during first half

of FY06.

PRSC-5 Amendments of Crop Board

legislation for at least two Crop

Boards submitted to Parliament.

Consultations for four crop

Boards completed and MOUs

signed


Growth", Rural ICA, Rural-

urban linkage study and

informal sector

PRSC-6 Draft amendments to crop board

legislation submitted for

stakeholder consultations and

strategic plans for all crop

boards finalized.

Draft amendments to crop board

legislation submitted for

stakeholder consultations and

strategic plans for all crop boards

finalized.

PSI on agriculture, GoT study

on fertilizer subsidy, Forestry

study by NGO Traffic and GoT

in 2007

PRSC-7 Collect information and report

on transparent and accountable

systems of licenses/concession

allocations and how this meets

market values in the forestry,

fisheries, wildlife, minerals and

oil & gas sectors.

Information on transparency and

accountability of

licenses/concession allocations

systems collected in the forestry,

fisheries, wildlife, minerals and

oil & gas sectors.

CEM, Notes on infrastructure,

trade, and agriculture, PSIA

agriculture, Rapid Poverty

Assessment

PRSC-8 Update FIAS study paying

particular attention to

regulations and local taxes

affecting agriculture and

undertake consultations and

agree to an action plan based on

the findings and

recommendations of the study.

Approve and initiate

implementation of an action

plan to improve accountability

and transparency in allocating

natural resource licenses and

concessions.

Action plan to improve

accountability and transparency in

allocating natural resource

licenses and concessions

approved and implementation

initiated.

Agriculture marketing notes,

TA to support NRM action

plan

D. Education, Health, and Water

PDO. Improve health status of the population; Expand enrollment and enhance quality in

all levels of education; and Improve well being through better access to clean water.


operation)


PRSC-

4

Satisfactory health sector review. 3rd PHDR, PETS on primary

education development

44

program, Capacity study on

health

PRSC-

5

Satisfactory health sector review

carried out.

Satisfactory education sector

review carried out.

Satisfactory water sector review

carried out.


carried out.


review carried out.


carried out.

PRSC-

6


carried out.


review carried out.


carried out.

Fairly satisfactory health sector

review carried out.

Fairly satisfactory education

sector review carried out.

Fairly satisfactory water sector

review carried out.

PSI on water

PRSC-

7

Updating the 2006/07 Health

Sector Performance Report by

January 31, 2008, and Health

Sector Performance Report for

2007/08 produced and

disseminated by October 2008.

By October 2008, agree on

education sector performance

report on the basis of an agreed

sector monitoring tool.

Satisfactory Water Sector Review

carried out.

Health Sector Performance for

2006/07 updated and Health

Sector Performance Report for

2007/08 produced and

disseminated.

Education sector performance

report for 2007/08 prepared on

the basis of an agreed sector

monitoring tool.

Satisfactory Water Sector Review

carried out.

CEM, Nutrition report (with

UNICEF), PSIA water, Rapid

Poverty Assessment

PRSC-

8

Satisfactory education, health,

and water sector reviews carried

out (based on an assessment of

progress on agreed outcome

targets, adequacy of resource

allocation, achievement of sector

milestones, and adequacy of

stakeholder consultations.)

Satisfactory education, health,

and water sector reviews carried

out (based on an assessment of

progress on agreed outcome

targets, adequacy of resource

allocation, achievement of sector

milestones, and adequacy of

stakeholder consultations.)

E. Government Accountability

PDO. Enhance accountability of the State


operation)


PRSC-

4

"Drivers of Change" study by

Tanzanian Governance

Working Group, "Political

Economy" study by Tanzanian

Governance Working Group,

Sundet paper "The state of

financial accountability in local

government in Tanzania",

45

Mwari and Sundet paper

"Understanding Patterns of

Accountability in Tanzania"

PRSC-

5





Governance Working Group

PRSC-

6

Anti-corruption bill submitted to

Parliament.

Anti-corruption bill enacted.

PRSC-

7

PER/PEFAR

PRSC-

8

F. Public Sector Effectiveness

PDO. Improve the effectiveness of public administration through better incentives for

public servant and decentralization.


operation)


PRSC-

4

Pay enhancement consistent with

the approved budget for FY06

and the overall thrust of the pay

reform.

Process agreed to reform the

public sector allowances regime,

based on the recommendations of

ongoing review.

Pay enhancement consistent with

the approved budget for FY06

and the overall thrust of the pay

reform.

Process agreed to reform the

public sector allowances regime,

based on the recommendations of

ongoing review.





Governance Working Group,




Mwari and Sundet paper

"Understanding Patterns of

Accountability in Tanzania",

Capacity study on public sector

reform and local government

reform programs

PRSC-

5





Governance Working Group

PRSC-

6

PRSC-

7

A revised Medium-Term Pay

Policy is adopted by government

by February 2009 as the basis for

reform of pay and allowances.

Draft available by December

2009.

Concrete steps taken to prepare a

revised Medium-Term Pay Policy

by government as the basis for

reform of pay and allowances.

PER/PEFAR

PRSC-

8

GoT approves Targets related to

the adopted Medium-Term Pay

Policy, incorporating strategies to

address (inter-district) inequity in

human resource distribution.

PER/PEFAR

46

G. Public Financial Management

PDO. Improve public financial management.


operation)


PRSC-

4

National Audit Office staff has

been trained, and procurement and

installation of computer equipment

at the National Audit Office

completed, allowing audit through

IFMS in future period.

President’s Office – Public Service

Management establishes a

Procurement Cadre.

President’s Office – Public Service

Management establishes

Organization structures and

staffing levels of Procurement

Management Units (PMUs).

National Audit Office staff has

been trained, and procurement

and installation of computer

equipment at the National Audit

Office completed, allowing audit

through IFMS in future period.

Organizational Structure of

PPRA approved and additional

budgetary resources allocated to

PPRA.

PETS on primary education

development program, PEFAR,




Country Fiduciary

Accountability Assessment,

PER

PRSC-

5

National Audit Office General

Report for FY05 issued by April

2006.

National Audit Office General

Report for FY05 issued by April

2006.

PER

PRSC-

6

Audit Bill submitted to

Parliament.

Audit bill geared to Afrosai 3

requirements enacted.

PER

PRSC-

7

Approval granted by October 2008

to create a new Department of

Internal Audit in the Ministry of

Finance and Economic Affairs,

and regulations under the

Procurement and Supplies

Professional Board Act prepared

and issued (gazette).

Approval granted to create a new

Department of Internal Audit,

and regulations under the

Procurement and Supplies

Professional Board Act

prepared.

PER/PEFAR

PRSC-

8

Presentation to Parliament of

amendments to Public

Procurement Act to increase

autonomy of PPRA and power to

enforce procurement rules.

Presentation to Parliament of

new Public Procurement Act that

increases autonomy of PPRA

and its power to enforce

procurement rules.

PER/PEFAR

H. Quality of Budget


operation)


PRSC-

4

Approved budget for FY06 in line

with MKUKUTA implementation,

delineating budget codes for

budget activities related to

MKUKUTA goals and strategies.

Approved budget for FY06 in

line with MKUKUTA.

PEFAR

47

Budget execution for FY05 and

FY06 (FQ1 and FQ2) in line with

approved budget and with

MKUKUTA implementation,

consistently reported as per

identified budget codes for budget

activities related to MKUKUTA

goals and strategies.

Expenditure outturn for FY05

consistent with approved budget.

PRSC-

5

Approved budget for FY07 in line

with policy objectives

(MKUKUTA).



Approved budget for FY07 in

line with policy objectives

(MKUKUTA).



PER

PRSC-

6

Approved budget for FY07/08 in


(MKUKUTA).

Expenditure outturn for FY06/07




(MKUKUTA).



PER

PRSC-

7



(MKUKUTA, sector policies).


consistent with approved budget

and recurrent budget deviation

reduced.




PER/PEFAR

PRSC-

8

Approved FY09/10 budget in

broadly line with policy objectives





reduced.




reduced.

PER/PEFAR

48

Annex 4. Tanzania PRSC 4-8 Series Results Framework and Results at the time of

completion

(A) MKUKUTA Cluster 1. Growth and reduction of poverty

MKUKUTA Cluster 1. Growth and reduction of poverty

PRSC-Supported Development Objective: Reduce income poverty DO Indicator: Rural poverty head count

Base line (2001): 39% MKUKUTA Target (2010): 24% Program Target (2010): 34% At completion: 37% (2007 HBS data)

Cluster 1: Program

Development Outcomes Outcome indicators Baseline (2005) MKUKUTA Target for

2010 / PRSC Target for

2010 as of PRSC-8 (if

different from

MKUKUTA target)

At Completion (as

of 2010

MKUKUTA/GBS

Annual Review)

1.1 Improve business

environment by

maintaining a conducive macro framework and

reducing administrative

barriers

Fiscal deficit (after grants) as percent of

GDP

6% 5% (PSI target) 6.4%

Inflation rate (average, CY) 5.1%

4%/ Less than 5% 10.6%

Improve ranking in ―Doing Business

Indicators‖

136 99 / 130 128 (DB 2011)

*down from 125 for recalculated

ranking for 2010 in

DB 2011 (2010 ranking in DB

2011 was 131).

1.2 Increase access of

private sector to key inputs, in particular credit and

backbone services (electricity, roads, ICT)

Credit to private sector (% of GDP) 8.9% 13% 17%

Time taken for a container from off-

loading until clearing from port (import

data)

20.1 12 days 12.5 days

Installed MW power capacity

889 MW 1278 MW / 1091MW 1077 MW

Availability of power supply

62% 71% 85%

Share of national and regional roads in

good and fair condition

(Good) 47%

(Fair) 35%

(Good) 75%

(Fair) 20%

(Good) 56%

(Fair) 33%

1.3 Improve livelihoods in

rural areas, where the majority of the poor work,

through improved

agricultural policies and expansion of rural

infrastructure

Agriculture sector three-year average

growth rate

4.4% 10% / 6% 3.9%

Revenues received from concession and

license in forestry, as % of their

estimated value

4-15% (2007) 25% (2008)

40% (2009)

50% (2010)

N/A at completion

*34 billion Tsh collected in 2010

compared to 18

billion (2009) and 22 billion (2007)

Number of districts qualifying for top

up grants

84 132 102

% of passable rural roads (in good and

fair condition)

50% 75% / 70% 56%

Number of customers connected to

national grid and off-grid sources

8.2% 20% / 12.9% 14.5%

49

(B) MKUKUTA Cluster 2. Quality of life and social well-being

5 The program document reported male only literacy rate (79%). The adult literacy rate for both male and female in 2002 was 69% as

reported by MKUKUTA implementation report.

MKUKUTA Cluster 2. Quality of life and social well-being

PRSC-supported Development Objective: Improve key Human Development Indicators

DO Indicators: -Under 5 mortality Baseline (2004): 112 MKUKUTA/PRSC Target (2010): 79 At completion: 81 (2009)

DO Indicators: Literacy of 15+ age group Baseline (2002): 69%5 MKUKUTA/PRSC Target (2010): 80% At completion: 70% (2009)

Cluster 2: Program

Outcomes

Outcome Indicators Baseline (2005) MKUKUTA Target for



different from

MKUKUTA target)

At Completion (as

of 2010

MKUKUTA/GBS

Annual Review)

2.1 Improve health status of

the population

% of children <2 years receiving three

doses of vaccines

71%

85% 88%

% of births attended by a skilled health

worker

41% (2006) 80% / 65% 51%

National HIV prevalence in the 15 to 24 years age group

4% (2003) 4% 2.4% (2007/08)

2.2 Expand enrollment and

enhance quality in all levels

of education

Net primary enrollment (All) 73%

(Boys) 71%

(Girls) 75%

(All) 99%

(Boys) 99%

(Girls) 99%

(All) 95.4%

(Boys) N/A at

completion. (Girls) N/A at

completion.

*Gross primary

enrollment 106.4

(Boys 107; Girls 100)

Percentage of cohort completing

primary education (Standard VII)

66.9% 69% 69.3%

Qualified teacher / pupil ratio in

primary education

1:73 1:45 1:54

Tertiary education enrolment ratio 0.27% (2002) 6% 5.3%

2.3 Improve well-being

through better access to

clean water

Percentage of the population that has

access to clean and safe water

(Rural) 45%

(Urban) 73%

(Rural) 65%

(Urban) 90%

(Rural) 57.8%

(Urban) 86%

50

(C) MKUKUTA Cluster 3. Governance and accountability

MKUKUTA Cluster 3. Governance and accountability

PRSC-supported Development Objective: Improve the capacity of Government to design and implement development policies in a

transparent and efficient manner

DO Indicators: WGI indicators on accountability: Baseline (2005): -0.31 PRSC Target (2010): 0 At completion: -0.14 (2009)

DO Indicators WGI indicators on control of corruption: Baseline (2005): -0.73 PRSC Target (2010): -0.20 At completion: -0.42 (2009)

DO Indicators WGI indicators on government effectiveness: Baseline (2005): -0.35 PRSC Target (2010): 0 At completion: -0.42 (2009)

Cluster 3 : Program

Outcomes

Outcome Indicators Baseline (2005) MKUKUTA Target for



different from

MKUKUTA target)

At Completion (as

of 2010

MKUKUTA/GBS

Annual Review)

3.1 Enhance accountability of the state

Number of grand corruption cases prosecuted as % of investigated cases

20% 50% N/A at completion.

*30 grand

corruption cases prosecuted in 2010,

compared to 1

(2007), 14 (2008), and 17 (2009).

% of court cases out-standing for 2

years or more

70% 40% 13%

3.2 Improve the effectiveness

of public administration through better incentives for

public servants and

decentralization

Current pay as a proportion of

Government’s pay target (%)

86% 100% / 90% 90%

% of LGA expenditures calculated on a formula basis

16% (06/ 07) 25% 19.4%

3.3 Improve public financial

management

Recurrent budget deviation 18% 10% 12.7%

NAO starting to introduce INTOSAI

and ISA

Fully compliant with

Afrosai 3

9 out of 10

Afrosai3 conditions met

Delay in submission of NAO audit

report to Parliament


Number of procuring entities

complying with the Public Procurement Act 2004.

39% (FY06/ 07) 80% 73%

51

Annex 5. Beneficiary Survey Results

N/A

Annex 6. Stakeholder Workshop Report and Results

N/A

Annex 7. Summary of Borrower's ICR and/or Comments on Draft ICR

No written comments have been received.

Annex 8. Comments of Co-financiers and Other Partners/Stakeholders

No written comments have been received.

52

Annex 9. List of Supporting Documents

Binswanger-Mkhize, H.P and Gautam, M. (2010) Toward an Internationally Competitive

Tanzanian Agriculture, World Bank, June 30, 2010

IMF (2010) Tanzania: First Review under the Policy Support Instrument, IMF Country Report

No. 10/351, December 2010.

UN (2010) Human Development Report

LOT January 29, 2001

UNFPA (2008) Family Planning Vital to Improving Maternal Health

http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=27343&Cr=unfpa&Cr1

United Republic of Tanzania (2005), MKUKUTA – National Strategy for Growth and Reduction

of Poverty, (and MKUZA for Zanzibar).

http://www.povertymonitoring.go.tz/Mkukuta/MKUKUTA_MAIN_ENGLISH.pdf

United Republic of Tanzania (2010), MKUKUTA II

Utz, Robert J. ed. (2007), Sustaining and Sharing Economic Growth in Tanzania (―Tanzania

CEM 2007‖), World Bank.

World Bank (2005-10) PRSC Program Files (Concept Notes, ROC review minutes, ISRs and

comments at various stages of the five PRSC reviewed in this document)

World Bank (2006) Tanzania: Fourth Poverty Reduction Support Credit, Report No. 35800-TZ,

April 10, 2006

World Bank (2007) Implementation Completion and Results Report on a Series of Five PRSCs

(PRSC 1-5) in Vietnam, Report No. ICR0000483

World Bank (2007) Implementation Completion and Results Report on the First Series of PRSCs

(PRSCs 1-3) in Tanzania, Report No.ICR0000501

World Bank (2007) Quality at Entry in FY06-06 (QEA8), A QAG Assessment, May 15, 2008

World Bank (2007) Tanzania: Fifth Poverty Reduction Support Credit, Report No. 38820-TZ,

March 1, 2007

World Bank (2008) Tanzania: Sixth Poverty Reduction Support Credit, Report No. 45348-TZ,

September 23, 2008

World Bank (2009) Tanzania: Seventh Poverty Reduction Support Credit, Report No. 48467-TZ,

May 11, 2009

World Bank (2010) Tanzania: Eighth Poverty Reduction Support Credit, Report No. 56347-TZ,

August 30, 2010

World Bank (2010) Poverty Reduction Support Credits: An Evaluation of World Bank Support, a

report produced by the Independent Evaluation Group of the World Bank.

http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=27343&Cr=unfpa&Cr1

http://www.povertymonitoring.go.tz/Mkukuta/MKUKUTA_MAIN_ENGLISH.pdf

KilimanjaroKilimanjaro(5895 m)(5895 m)

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30°E

0°

2°S

8°S

10°S

0°

2°S

4°S

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10°S

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32°E 34°E 36°E

32°E 34°E 36°E 40°E

TANZANIA

This map was produced by the Map Design Unit of The World Bank. The boundaries, colors, denominations and any other informationshown on this map do not imply, on the part of The World BankGroup, any judgment on the legal status of any territory, or anyendorsement or acceptance of such boundaries.

0 50 100 150

0 50 100 150 Miles

200 Kilometers

IBRD 33494R1

NOVEMBER 2007

TANZANIAMAIN ROADS

RAILROADS

PROVINCE BOUNDARIES

INTERNATIONAL BOUNDARIES

SELECTED CITIES AND TOWNS

PROVINCE CAPITALS

NATIONAL CAPITAL

RIVERS